 The field is set. The player pool is up and we are ready to break down the final major of the 2023 calendar year It is the open championship at Royal Liverpool. We're here to break things down from a PGA DFS Perspective lets you know our top golfers and each Fandall salary tier and much more to get you ready for Thursday's t-tons welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joined here as always by Brandon Ghadoula. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon the open championship comes up this week It is going to be a delight with so many fun guys Realistic contention a fun duo at the top. How you doing today? I'm good. I love the open Love watching some different styles of golf seeing the creativity required You know, I don't I guess I'm probably not I mean, I know I'm not alone in like finding a lot of Really scourable courses like boring, but I think a lot of people also like that So I don't really know where the what the prevailing opinion is, but I think everyone loves Everybody loves the open But I would be doing a lot better, frankly If you would stop beating me in our head-to-head contest so that I can just close out the season Now you're making me sweat and I don't really care for it So if you could knock that off that would help me a good bit this week I can guarantee you it doesn't matter because I would need to win out in order to clinch it alone So I'm just kind of doing this to prolong your suffering I don't actually care about winning myself anymore because I know that I can't I am doing it solely to make sure you have To sweat longer. It's vindictive. It is not self-motivated. It is all in order to Maximize a pain for you to get to win last week, which was very nice But you know, I kind of have to like find ways to make sure my lineup is different than yours Which means not using the optimal plays in our situation. So Ready for it to be done to be frankly honest Honestly though, like, you know with the bobbleheads back here now that I've moved some of these are via our bobble hat Things I'm trying to point correctly on the screen. This is to break a shot Remember that don't a call pepper is right here. I know that was one as well So, you know bubble Wallace over here. Whoop whoop whoop I can't remember which hand it is because it's like backwards on the screen So I'm trying to like point without You know without looking back Yeah, it says the guy who makes fun of me for doing the wrong way for Trending down exactly It's just you know, it's just hypocritical. I think it's honestly disgusting. I think you should be embarrassed I'm not you you always think I should be embarrassed yet. It's never worse. So I feel like at some point you should give up and Maybe I will finally break you down throughout the show for today by constantly asking you Rory or Scotty Rory or Scotty Rory or Scotty because frankly It's not an easy question to answer Rory McRoy coming off a win at the Genesis Scottish Open Scotty Schaeffler has not finished outside the top five since the 90s. I believe so It's a tough discussion Should be in his 40s in the 90s. What he was in his early 40s in the 1990s Yes, Scotty Schaeffler was born in the 1990s, but he was also in his 40s at the exact same time Yeah, because he's Scotty Schaeffler We're talking about Schaeffler versus McRoy We're talking about where John Rom fits in in that equation talking about our top guys in each salary tier and much more to get you Ready for the open championship here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Still the solo shot going up every week day breaking down MLB DFS We have a USC via Austin Swain for select events as well And of course a solo shot also does go up over on FanDuel TV plus for watching us over there right now We appreciate you as always you can find covering the spread on FanDuel TV plus as well If you want to watch covering the spread solo shot up in Adams run it back whatever it may be on FanDuel TV plus Check it out on Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku as well Of course this show is up on the FanDuel YouTube page as well Are you looking at a stake in the open championship all weekend? Well, FanDuel has you covered with the PGA Eagle, which is now live test your knowledge of the PGA tour by putting together a six-person lineup While staying under the salary cap using FanDuel's last scoring feature follow along as you compete for a share of $350,000 with first place taking home a hundred K all for just a nine dollar entry fee Whether it's household names like Rory McElroy and Victor Holland or lesser known golf first Such as Taylor Moore and Ben Griffin. They're gonna tee off on Thursday or late Wednesday either way Plenty of options for you to fill out a lineup as you compete for first place Thursday will be here before you know It says submit your line-ups on FanDuel today eligibility restricts apply go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel app for more details Let's dig in now to the open championship at Royal Liverpool It is at Hoy Lake in a 7,313 yards and a par 71 This course last hosted a major back in 2014 Of course, Rory McElroy was the winner then also hosted back in 2006 But it's undergone pretty major renovations since that time. It was a par 72 back then they made major tweaks for sure Across the board. There are 156 golfers in the field the top 70 plus ties We'll make the cut after the first two rounds. So again top 70 Not top 65 for this week because it is the open championship So not a lot of data as far as course history for this event But we do have some you can look back to 2014 and kind of look into the renovations they've made so Brandon When you dig into Royal Liverpool, what stands out to you as far as things we should emphasize for this week? Yeah, it's tough any time we don't get shot link data We can really only rely on stats that are not Necessarily utilized heavily currently for a reason. I mean, so, you know, some people like to look at the traditional stats still But strokes gained while not perfect a much better measure of How guys are playing and why they're finishing a certain way So it's a lot of the the guesswork For this week that we got a factor in Then account for the changes, but realistically, I'm not going to overdo it with the changes Because it's a major and that does also kind of just mean that we can simplify things a little bit and look at overall form and overall stats, but of note the winning scores the past two iterations at Royal Liverpool were 18 and 17 under By Tiger Woods and Roy McElroy, respectively, but it's a little tiny bit misleading Because there was separation for them I think it's maybe more noteworthy that seven golfers in 2006 were 10 under or better and 11 did that in 2014 so Still gonna play relatively tough Relatives of par also obviously par is different this time around but winning score is not going to be crazy Most likely unless we get into the weather, which we'll talk about but basically what I've seen so far early in the week is That it's gonna play longer Maybe a little bit wetter less rollout that could put an emphasis on driving distance Which is the right way to play it off the tee if you're looking to give value to a certain driving stat It should be driving distance even though it did not do much to explain scoring in either 2006 or 2014 but distance off the tee better than accuracy for sure for this week You can look at stroke scan off the tee But realistically what I saw when I dug in to try to figure out what led to scoring what explained scoring differentials in 2006 and 2014 was more of the irons wedges in putter some that's a little bit like I don't know self-evident if you you know putting better is gonna correlate pretty strongly To scoring better, but again, it's kind of what we can do And that's really all we can do in a lot of in a lot of cases, but yeah greens regulation pretty mild correlation so that that Implies that irons are gonna matter which we tend to know For every single week to be tend to know that for the open So basically what I think we need to take away from all of this is that You don't have to be the world's best driver, but it helps if you're long off the tee You want to have good irons and you want to be able to putt well this for this week so The as far as like the key stats go I'm going a little bit on distance Stroke scan approach stroke scan putting Stroke scan around the green and really overall form total stroke scan average because it's a major It's gonna weed out Pretty much all of the weaker golfers aside from those having true outlier weeks At the top of the leaderboard, so I don't think we need to get too too cute Look for ball strikers. You can pot basically and I think that there are two ways you could look at this where you look at it as Emphasized distance or you can look at it as De-emphasize off the tee play in general and try to find guys who are good fairway through a green So I want to ask you let's talk about guys like Russell Henley Danny McCarthy guys who I would consider in the 9000 range or the the high 8000 range But who are going to lose some distance off the tee and are not necessarily super well suited for this kind of course How much do you downgrade them if at all given we know how good they are after the driver? But also that they will be losing some distance relative to the guys are trying to hang with Yeah, I mean any value play this week is gonna be it's gonna You know, they're going to have shortcomings and you have to kind of separate and choose at 95 No shortcomings there. Sure We're back on it. We're back, baby Yeah, sure. Wyndham Clark. We know is One of the best plays the Wallace. Yeah But yeah for the other value plays are gonna have some sort of issues and I would just caution against like Chasing guys with this more distance off the tee and someone with a more complete game Like Danny McCarthy will talk about current form has some of the best current form in in the field Just so basically on the planet Is he long off the tee? No but what I rather play someone who's Short off the tee and has a complete game otherwise than someone who just nukes it Yeah, so I want that distance reports again, and it's not quite as firm yet According to Michael Kim his Twitter Great, his Twitter is Mike Kim, which is going to throw some like wrenches into the The spreadsheet ruin a discussion so he might be on the rise in that regard well his Like his handle is Mike underscore Kim 714, but his like display name is Michael S. Kim, right? so it's just So I think we need to have him listed as Mike Kim in the Fandall salary Michael Kim Fandall sportsbook odds and Michael S. Kim on data golf Because Zach Johnson popped up is Zach something Johnson on Fandall sports. Yeah, yeah, that came out of nowhere So we're on Michael Kim spreadsheet ruin her watch here He didn't do anything yet. He just has a different Twitter handle saying we're on alert, but point being I heard him I heard this Twitter account shouted out on the no laying up podcast and It looks pretty sick so shout out to Michael Kim for the info But basically is sort of main takeaway that it's not playing super firm Which again is gonna basically give an advantage to the longer hitters for now. So we'll see how that goes, but Yeah, I mean just It's a major play the best plays and really get cautious of guys who you want to play who have Severe limitations in a certain category Absolutely, it's tough to hang when you have major red flags when you're playing against Scottish Eflor Roy McElroy, etc, etc Speaking of those guys, let's dive into what golfers have done recently in majors You're gonna look at overall form majors because obviously we can't look at course history because we have none since 2014 So when you dig back into recent majors, who are the golfers who have popped the most when the pressure has been high? Yeah, we always sort of debate this when it comes to majors whether we look at you know recent majors past history It's a lot easier for like the masters when you look at Augusta, but definitely not looking at 2014 unless it's to sell myself on Ricky Fowler or I guess Rory McElroy, but You know, you also don't want to put a ton of stock into Recent majors in the sense that if you're struggling at all at majors then I think people really like to write off golfers Who don't play well in majors? And there's a few names on this list who you would a lot of people say don't play well at majors But finish well for especially for daily fantasy purposes Doesn't matter if Patrick Cantley is not really in contention if he's finishing top 15 consistently You'll love that from a fandal perspective But over the past five majors, which includes just one open Championship Scotty Schaeffler is getting three over three shots per round on the field according to my measurements For runner or sorry for top 10s. I almost said for runner up runners up But he's got two of those I would not be surprised if you had four runners up, but and then a 21st place finish at last year's open Rory McElroy is next up at a 2.9 Second seventh missed cut third and fifth and by the way I have this whole table posted in my helper on numberfire.com Victor Hovland though is Playing well at majors one missed cut, but three top 10s Salaries 11-6. I think he's really interesting this week not in the sense that like I Think he's the guy. I just think that he's interesting because if he flies under the radar a bit It's a major That's the type of name that you want to be in on Patrick Cantley though fourth on this list at a 2.23 His salaries below 11,000 on Fandle love to see that top 15 in Five straight majors He's gaining the same amount of strokes per round as Cameron Smith But Smith has that win obviously at last year's open has a missed cut in there Matt Fitzpatrick is at a 2.19 his salaries in the low 10,000 range John Rahman at 2.13 Ricky Fowler 2.09 I'm just two majors in that sample for Ricky just as a heads up and then my guys Andrew Shroff light 2.08 strokes gain per round six straight top 20s at Majors love what he's doing Aside from the wedge play, I think Sanders intriguing this week, but those are the names above a two Entering this week. We'll talk about chef or McElroy rom in the current form sections Let's talk to you about Patrick Cantley because I know the perception is that he's not someone who Rises at majors and I think as a result that a lot of times you'll see him Get a bit glossed over when it comes to roster rates His betting odds tend to be maybe a bit longer than you would think they would be typically and I think that's the case this week And your model agrees because you show him as a betting value 22 to 1 over a fan dual sportsbook I feel like Cantley at 10 9 Allows me to have a pretty balanced build for daily fantasy this week without Sacrificing at least what I proceed to be a lot of win equity because I think that he can win That's just my you know my thought process on it. I think that he can do it I know a lot of those good finishes are backdoor good finishes, but It's still a sample size of four rounds is better than a sample size of what you did Thursday Friday, so I Feel like Cantley at 10 9 is going to be a focal point for me a core play because he fits the build that I want and He's kind of the kind of player I want as well. What's your read on Cantley this week at 10 9? I Like him. I think he's a good win value the biggest question mark for me is Cantley versus Ricky Fowler Fowler's salary of 10 8 is also very appealing My win simulation model likes Cantley a lot more About 4.7 percent To win with Fowler 2.6 percent so based on just that I should much prefer Cantley But I like both and this is the kind of This is the kind of week where if I could play both of those guys as my second and third golfers That would be really really sick I Think you have to be open to different types of lineup construction usually we we advocate a level of balance when it comes to majors, but you know Those are two Low salaries lower than they probably should be But that's only because somebody has to be lower than they should be unless They just make multiple golfers like the same salary. Yeah, so I Like I want to take advantage of that I'm kind of leaning more toward Ricky from a daily fantasy standpoint. That could be silly. Yeah Especially when you factor in popularity, but I Like both. Yeah, what are your thoughts on Cantley? I like Cantley more than Ricky, but it's not by a wide margin I think they're very much in the same tier and you also can get both even with one of the big three in there I'm just gonna call the big three McElroy Schaeffler and Rom. You put Rory in there who is the highest salary It's 8,700 left for three golfers to finish it off and you can do that this week So I would at least tinker around with that kind of build and that's part of why I want to be in this range Because it does give you a lot of flexibility. Obviously be fun to get, you know Rory and Rom or Rory and Schaeffler in there what you can't do. I'm not opposed to But I think that having three guys with salaries of let's say Like ten one or higher, I mean ten one or higher I think I definitely want to have but like if I can get up to ten five or higher ten eight That's pretty intriguing and probably it is a bit counter to our typical, you know You want balance, but this is also another route to balance having three guys with massive win equity Which is kind of what we're talking about when we're discussing balance in other situations Yeah, over the past five optimal lineups at open championships basically the top salary golfers been around 11.6 Second golfer around 11,000 and then third golfer right around that ten one ten two range that you talked about So I think that's really appealing and just as sort of a I don't talk as much about optimal lineups as they used to But at majors you tend to have less wasted salary Which basically says more of the it golfers expected to play well are gonna gonna play well and fewer values are really gonna pop And you tend to see just fewer fandal points at a major. So It's more about finishing position than it is about birdies So that's kind of another thing to keep in mind. So finishing position is gonna be a little more tied into How well golfers play which is why you want to you know prioritize The better golfers who are like a top 15 from a Patrick Cantley Might not come with a whole lot of birdies, but you're not really getting value plays who are just making tons of birdies And then just sort of bogey their way down the leaderboard. So I think that the ten one Shout is nice for sure For this week One of the guy I want to touch on before we move on to talk about current form is any McCarthy We could have discussed him in the current form section But McCarthy actually is on the leaderboard that you have here for guys who've done well in majors 1.85 strokes gained per round in majors per data golf across the past five he's played in just three of those but finishes a seventh 29th and 20th, which I think is interesting because We don't think of McCarthy as being the kind of guy who hangs at majors because he's not going to gain a lot of strokes off The tee but the putting is phenomenal The approach plans been a lot better than it had been previously of late and it's allowed him to put up some really good finishes McCarthy salaries $8,900. Is he someone you're actively targeting this week Brandon? Yeah, I think he's a really appealing play And his strength we know is the Potter which you know You don't really want to bank on golfers who are reliant on their Potter but His putting is so well established so long term Like his long-term baseline is really really good He's a 98th percentile putter from within 15 feet on the PGA tour this season. You love that Just playing good enough golf with everything else that the way that I think he really trickles down And struggles is if the distance just tends to be right too much too relentless for him But that's still a really good salary and that's all factored in when it comes to McCarthy And his distance like you know distance is really tricky to kind of Discuss because the way the distance is measured can be either just two drives basically and that's a little misleading If you look at rankings, he's 110th over the past 50 rounds in distance gain But he's losing under four and a half yards per drive To the world average golfer according to data golf in that sample So like yeah, is he one of the longer hitters in the field? No, is he like Losing 40 yards on every drive also. No, so I think McCarthy is is a great value play this week I agree I like Keegan Bradley a tiny bit more, but I think both those guys are really fun Keegan Bradley salaries $8,800 McCarthy 89 I think both those guys great out well and both guys I am very willing to use for this week Let's have this done discussion right now and talk about current form as you look at golfers Brandon Who have been golfing? Well most recently who enters the open championship with the best current form? Yeah, so the way that we do this is look at data golf's true strokes game query over the past three months And if you do that you see one name Out above the rest that's Scotty Schaeffler at a 3.07 true strokes game per round set adjust for field strength And he's doing that while losing strokes putting on average. It's pretty ridiculous He is finishing just top three basic. He basically top five every single week His recent finishes t3 t4 third third t3 t2 t5 um And he's not really putting well his best putting performance was at the pga championship With 0.41 strokes gained per round on the greens Which is fine, but nothing like crazy His underlying putting stats are just okay. So like it's not Screaming regression, but his t-degree game is phenomenal um, he is a better t-degree player by at least one shot per round Uh than than anyone else in the field excluding the live tour players who are on the leaderboard there because their sample is really small, but It's disgusting. Scotty Schaeffler very deserving to be your your anchor play if you want him to be um, but he's out ahead of roi mackleroy on the leaderboard roi's at a 2.71 Um over the past three months still very very good Uh numbers for him obviously coming off of a win I tweeted Surprisingly, I tweeted a couple weeks ago about putting regression for him. The putter has been very steady You like to see that He's got a ton of top tens as well. So I don't think you can go wrong Between those two probably don't need to spend a whole lot more time on those two right now Because there are some other interesting names on this list and you know, we talk about data golf all the time but it's a very helpful tool Especially for things like majors opposite field events that kind of stuff because You know, they track and sort of do their best to adjust for the difference of fields And the next names on the list are cam smith and brooks capca They're in the 2.4 range That's a really strong output Yes, there are like volume concerns because of the You know the total number of rounds they have eight events in there, um, you know, they're not all 72 holes, but Very good golf all things considered Following them up our tearo hat and wiki fowler tommy fleetwood And zander schroff lay in the 2.2 to 2.3 range. So not very far behind them And then just shouting out Our guy patrick antley 2.11 uh, john rom the forgotten man 2.06 and then You know heat check hero windham clark 2.02 Obviously his salary of 9500 stands out in that in that sense But a lot of golfers above a two And you get one who's very low salary But a lot of different ways you can go at the top of the board is really what this is saying So we have rory and we have cheffler rory come up and win at the genesis scottich open cheffler Not having to finish worse than t5 since april 16th When you look at those two guys for cash games specifically brandon, which one do you prefer this week? scottie By how much? Enough we're in a cash game. I don't have to make the decision Um plus his salary is lower, which doesn't hurt. But his t degree game is so consistent And I'd rather bank on that. I mean like rory's gonna just demolish the ball off the tee And you know, I talked about the putting Should be trending up I kind of like the putter more for rory than I do for scottie A lot of people and I this is something that I like I just tweeted a thread up because getting annoyed of people calling like rory a bad putter He's a good putter. He's a fine putter. He's like an above average putter long term so It's a little bit close But for me i'm going cheffler because the tee degree game is just so good right now and I feel like that discussion even gets slanted more towards cheffler for tournaments because rory coming off of a scottish open championship and playing in You know what he probably would deem the most important major to him this weekend That's going to generate a lot of interest in rory rory also the highest salary your research has shown that correlates to having the highest roster rate and Betting out it's not super different if you look at some books They're actually the same at seven to one a fandal does favor cheffler by a tiny amount plus 650 macroi seven to one I feel like if you like cheffler more for cash games And we can probably assume that macroi carry a bit more heat with regards to roster rates That should push us towards cheffler in tournaments as well My question for you is where is john rom in this discussion? Is rom in the same tier as them or is he a half tier down full tier down? How much does the form for rom push him down for you? yes, I mean You know ranks are always tricky when it comes to the golf because there can be a lot of separation but To simplify it over the past three months cheffler's number one Roy's number two and roma's tenth in true strokes games that feels like A cavern and it really isn't um I just want to kind of shout that out And over the past 50 rounds, which is a pretty predictive sample without getting too far In the past where things can change a ton uh, cheffler's at a 2.98 and then john rom is second at a 2.54 like Roy's golfing really well right now cheffler's been golfing really well for a long time rom was golfing a bit better than he is now And it's basically just we're kind of buying at the peak with rory And maybe be able to buy a little bit low for rom. So I have no issues pivoting to john rom In a tournament, especially if you maybe build a line if you like that has rory and or cheffler, I don't really know what that's going to look like but And then you just kind of duplicate it and swap that out and hope if rom wins and you hit the rest of the core like I think you can feel pretty good about doing that because rom's not that far off and you're going to get a lot of leverage by playing john rom instead of Rory or scottie very much. So if you look at fan share tags right now john rom is Outside the top 10. Yeah 15th versus obviously rory and scottie second and third respectively So there's a big gap there and on the heat check if you are a new listener I would like create for daily fantasy in tournaments is be different without being dumb And I don't think there are many better examples of that Than using john rom in like a single entry tournament for this week because multi entry You know people will get to rom because it's john rom for single entry the fomo of oh, I can't miss out on scottie Or I can't miss out on rory will be a bit higher. So I would say If I feel firm about scottie and cash games I feel more firm that john rom is the best play for single entry tournaments for this week I think that he is You know entering the u.s. Open rory mackleroy was that guy because it was all about Schaeffler all about rom and rory is starting to pick things back up then that paid off pretty well I think that guy is rom this week. So To me in a single entry tournament. I think that john rom Might be the best play in the entire field all things considered Is brooks kapka in that conversation for you? No, because I think the brooks will get Enough attention because it's brooks in the major his fan show tags are higher Not a lot higher honestly if you look at the actual like tags but I think if people are not going to get to Schaeffler or mackleroy, I don't think rom would be the next guy up. I think it'd probably be kapka You know instead Yeah, I think I think it's safe to say kapka will be more popular than rom But I just want to make sure that we're not going through forever and not talking about brooks. Sure So I just wanted to to flag that and again How i'm going to conclude the show is So many of these guys are in play like we have our preferences. We have our Like approach that leads us to certain names But so many these guys are in play. I'm not going to talk about victor hovland. You might I don't know. Um Great form He's played pretty well. It it opens the putter is a lot better than I think people realize camp smiths in good form Like I'll talk about zander a little bit, but You know, I think that's kind of the zander and up Honestly can't go wrong with any of those names. I think where you get into the being a little too cute and this is not like This will sound more negative than I mean it to be but like More cow has got some issues and some length concerns potentially this week His potting is not very well supported By the underlying data I love spieth, but you know, I think that's kind of where you're getting into that Just trying to be too different without Maybe having it make a ton of sense unless you're seeing something of those two guys specifically or some other names in that range where You see the case, but I think that's kind of uh, you know from zander and up I wouldn't just I wouldn't argue with it. I wouldn't waste a single breath telling someone not to play any of those guys Exactly. I think you know, as always trust your own research You can listen to us. Obviously. That's why we're here But um, trust your own research too if they lead you to a certain path a couple of value plays was really good for him right now Wyden Clark we talked about 9500 dollars We probably don't need to sell people on the us open champion But a couple guys right below him. Uh, we talked about danie mccarthy Next up are bryce and de shambo and taylor gooch de shambo is a guy. I have a lot of interest in 9400 dollars I could see myself being in that range enough where it's enticing where I get to both windom and de shambo I think that would make a lot of sense gooch Ah, you know the off the t stats are always kind of scary, but The thing with him is he in the past has been a guy who's been great fairway through green Looking at the live data for him has a couple wins. Um, he had a tie For a win in singapore, I think he won in a playoff. Okay. Well, it's weird. Anyway Um, he missed the cut of the pga championship 34th the masters It doesn't have the same like master or sorry a major results as patrick reed brooks kapka Other guys in the live tour, but has popped. So I feel good about bryce I've been okay saying that do you have any thoughts on uh, de shambo or gooch I think bryce and fits especially if you're building lineups that are more uh, distant centric So i'm not going to argue there. Uh, I like taylor gooch this week. Um, he's someone that I targeted a ton on the pga tour But uh, three live tour wins since april was t 34th the masters Um, again, I wish there was more because we're so stat centric. I wish there was more that I could point to yeah, um, but you know at a certain point golf scores are golf scores And unless he's just literally making a thousand You know 50 foot pots. He's probably golfing pretty well Right. Uh, but yeah, I think those those two names are both in play Uh for this week And then just shouting out kind of some other names with notable form. Uh, russell henley His size 9 000. Uh, your boy keegan bradley 8800. I like him this week You know, but I don't know if he's gonna be like Anything close to a core play for me But keegan definitely deserves some attention and then just a shout out to emilliano grillo at 7300 brian harman who's kind of my boy in majors 8 000 and adam shank also kind of one of my low-key guys at 8100 pretty good form relative to the salary Okay, let's dig in now to what the bookmakers are saying over at fan dual sports book For this week's event as mentioned the favorite here is scottie chef We're checking in at plus 650 slanted for him over rory mackerew who is now lengthened to plus 750 So with some enticing odds there Then there's a drop off down to john rama 12 to 1 camron smith lengthened to 20 brooks kefka still at 18 to 1 right now patrick cannelly checking in at 22 to 1 there are three golfers currently 25 to 1 those guys ricky fowler victor hovland zander schoffley with tiril haddon tommy fleawood both the 28 to 1 You mentioned calling more a cow. He is 30 to 1 joined there by jordan spieth and then dustin johnson rounds with the top group He is 33 to 1 now. We talked about the big three earlier on Let's talk about the rest What are you trying to do after that? Are you trying to jam in? Two of the big three. Do you want to get in? chefler plus someone in the victor hovland range with his salary being around 11 6 or Are we skewing towards balance peppering that cantlay fowler range in order to take advantage of the salary savings? We get on those guys Yeah, so i want to get to chefler primarily and then from there Uh, i'm looking at zander That start alone has me at 91 50 uh, but zander patrick cantlay ricky fowler Basically want to get two of those three In there, I don't mind the 10 000 range Overall, but I don't love it. Yeah, I think tiero hatton deserves like a nod um, just enraged right at 10 000 but And this is one of the this is one of like the downfalls of Saying things like this but with windham clark under salaried like he could easily be in the 10 000 range If I just say well, i'm gonna be able to play windham clark I gotta make sure I can pivot from that if i'm building multiple lineups um But with windham clark there, I kind of feel like it's a I don't say a free square for like our Like a head to head or it is but It makes it a lot easier to prioritize The upper 10 000 range and make sure I can get Into the Like You know ricky cantlay have one of those guys be my third golfer It's it's doable It does kind of Take you down into the low 8 000 range for two golfers Which I don't think is the hardest thing to do right, but you're still getting a lot of win equity by having four true studs Um in your lineup if you go that route with the fourth stud being windham clark Yeah, i'm proud of you. Thank you. Thank you. It's a major winner. I know thank you for acknowledging this I think he He's got two designated event wins he's a boss I agree the what you were saying though where typically we want that that next golfer to be In the 10 000 range, but because clark kind of gets you that production We're getting the same file process in the same build But just taking advantage of a lower salary. I think that same file process applies to cantlay as well and fowler at 10 8 so To me, that's why I wanted it down there. Now that does mean I'll probably want it being a bit lighter on Brooks kepka victor hovland cameron smith zander shawfly all guys in that range And that's scary because any of those guys could realistically win I'm pretty sure I bet zander like five well five minutes before we started recording. I'm pretty sure I bet zander at 25 So like I think those guys can win You're pretty sure you did I was looking at I don't remember if I actually did it okay, it just sounded like too tight of a turnaround to forgotten But I guess if you went I had the app open I was having trouble logging in we were talking before Um, and so I couldn't like actually get in and I was like really annoyed during covering the spread I hope you could tell that I was peeved um There's an happening. You were annoying to try to talk to me a lot. Um, no names mentioned but like, um It was bothering me. So I can't remember if I actually got there But I'm pretty sure I did so like I think those guys can win I just think the better approach for dfs is to Skip over them to that next tier and take advantage of the lower salaries on cantlay and fowler specifically How many or slash what I guess what percentage of your lineups? Would you not have I'm gonna throw brooks in there. I know you're like lower on him a little bit, but sure brooks wrong cheffler or rory I will not have a single lineup without macaroy cheffler or rom. Okay Like I I see no reason I could see getting to brooks is my second golfer and probably should because like brooks is win odds in a major are probably pretty high So good to get the win equity. Um, but I will not have a lineup without one of those three guaranteed I don't see the point Yes, same for you or no Yeah, I'm with you. Okay. I think that's sorry to play things just because they Have so much win equity Like I know we don't use the f word here floor. Um, but like their floor is amazing as well, so You kind of can't ignore that. So again optimal build for us is going to be Getting into that's high 10,000 range when we can Which golfer's odds have shifted most notably since monday? There were a couple that shifted after we started recording So you don't have to focus on those those two were macaroy to 750 and then Cameron Smith lengthened from 18 to 20. Who else has lengthened since monday or sorry shorten my bad Okay, no, I'm all now. I'm all sorry throwing off. I could have re-pulled everything if I had if I had none, but uh, no That's too much work Um, I had brooks at 22 to 18 uh, calling more cala 33 to 30 Both dust and johnson and jordan spieth 35 To 33 your guy brison dishambo. He's just that 65 the importer was far enough. I can't do brison as well Yeah, I actually um, just as a side note. I have uh, I bought a puma golf hat like Six years ago that I saw ricky fallowern and I liked it and I also wear like puma golf shoes because they fit my wider feet And uh, now that brison switched from his like cap to like a Golf hat I wonder like I just wonder if people were like, oh, he must like brison because he you know kind of brutal I'm sorry for your loss and you know, I Yeah, I'm in the weight room a lot. So like I just wonder I just hope nobody ever looks at me like Oh, this guy just likes golf because he likes brison. So you're in the weight room You wearing the puma hat Not in the weight room, but just the way that we're built is A little similarly at this point, but uh, yeah, just I always I always worry about that But I'm gonna I'm gonna say here's your boy. So no, please don't it's very rude. I can't understand why you'd be so So rude to me, uh I think it makes sense. He's shorn though. Yeah, say that I think it makes sense that this guy shortened as well a hideki matsuyama from 100 to 70 I like hideki laid out the case for him On covering the spread earlier My pivot one of my picks to hideki. Honestly, just as it heads up I was gonna ask you about hideki for dfs because this is betting But for dfs, he's 98 I could see being in that range of times Um, especially if you know if we're not going to put wind them in In 100 a lot of just like 96 instead, you know, I need the 4% to go somewhere I feel like hideki is a prime consideration for that pivot at 98 I also do think that like I don't like Cameron young as much as like hideki, but I think I would at least put him that consideration set as well Uh, I probably wouldn't get there with young personally, but um I think I'm like a distance stack if I go dshambo rory Windham that kind of thing Well, the other thing too that was if you're open to like the scottie brooks kind of start um You could go hideki as your third golfer and still play windham clark Yeah, then you're in like the low 8 000 range for an average. I think that's a fine Way if you're going to go really top heavy. So yes, uh hideki fits a lot of You know, these guys and like that upper nines low tens fit a lot of different builds depending on how you view them But yeah, hideki Really good ball striking as expected really weak putting as expected But better in better putting splits from within 15 feet that you probably would realize So like that and he's finishing pretty well at majors despite really bad putting so I'm fine with that Cory conners also shortened from 175 patrick reed nan of scott from 90 to 80 And jason day from 110 to 90 Uh, we've been on jason day a lot this year. I will not be there this week despite the shortening The form is rough. Uh, so yeah, we'll not be getting there personally any noteworthy lengthening for you or not as much Not a con. I mean, there's a little bit of shifting. Um, I guess you can throw in rory now from He was plus 650 at one point. He was seven to one. He's now plus 750. Okay. I thought he was I thought he got to He might have plus six. Yeah, I haven't Yeah, I haven't plus 650 was at some point. He was seven yesterday and then now 750 Yeah, so you can throw him in there. I think that's just noteworthy Um, but she and laury 35 to 40 and matt fits patrick 40 to 50 Other than that probably nothing to to talk about really. Okay, and which lower salary golfers have betting odds to stand out to you Best fandal sportsbook win odds From golfers with fandal salaries of 9 000 or lower belong to patrick reed right at 9 000. His win odds are 80 to 1 Uh, robert mackentire and taylor gooch both 8900 Salaries on fandal 90 to 1 each Our guys keegan-browley brian harman 110 to 1 difference there with keegan at 8800 on fandal And brian harman at 8 000 really appealing salary there Denny mccarthy russell henley seawool kim and louis westays and all 120 to 1 At basically 89 or 9 000 with seawool kim being at 86 brian harman's salary is mentioned $8 000 that can do a long way to making a very top heavy approach work Looking at his recent major history so far this year 43rd of the u.s. Open cut and cut at the pga championship and the masters but was sixth at the open championship last year and made three out of four cuts in majors last year Forementoring is obviously pretty good. We'll not have the distance and that is definitely a downside But do you think there is enough in harman? to consider him as kind of a way to Retip the scales if you go top heavy Yeah, like him more for tournaments in the hopes that he puts something together Then for a cash game Simply due to the fact that It's sort of against him To play really well here. Yeah, not that he can't or not that he won't But he's golfing really well a lot of that's with the putter, but he's a great putter And just sort of in control of his game right now based on the current form. So I like harman Probably going to be tempting to make a lineup work and like our head-to-head. Yeah, but I want to Probably get to someone with a little more distance when it comes to a single lineup from like a Head-to-head standpoint I'd agree that too. Also fans was put three balls up So I know what I'm doing after we get done recording is checking into three balls We're back baby. We are back. Let's take a look at the weather for this weekend and unlike last weekend I don't think we need to care too much about Stacking tee times because the wind pattern is pretty similar to the first two rounds slightly higher winds Friday across the board but No, we'll need to wave stack there the best chance of rain is Friday morning But they should be okay winds around 15 miles per hour high, but not crazy that also Impacts the expected score you need to win. I think it'll probably be pretty low Once again based on this forecast because it's not overly concerning at least to me Saturday should feature Light rain with wind speeds peaking at around 15 miles per hour slightly less winds sunday with more rain So I think we should play things pretty straight up. Don't think the course would be too terrible as far as the wind conditions so Lucky for you brandon good week to play things straight up and ignore the wave stacks Although the wave stack did beat you and I had to head last week Let's go now to our player picks here for the open championship starting the upper range brandon In the stud tier. Who are you building around on fan duel for this week? I'm going scottie schaeffler. I'm not gonna overthink it best teeter green golfer on the planet Best ball striker on the planet right now only downside is the putter which we sort of know And you know be frank. He's a 15th percentile putter from within 15 feet On tour This season don't love that but even with that those types of putting stats He's just top five everywhere doesn't really play poor golf because the ball striking there and so sure Maybe the ball striking goes away and the putter can't save him if you want to kind of frame it that way But we know that the most predictable stats are strokes hand off the tee And then iron play is about the same as putting frankly But a little bit more of a lean toward approach play. So with the amount of strokes he can gain With the irons and the pretty much baked in advantage. He has off the tee I don't really see a reason to go away from it Even though roar is a bit tempting if i'm going just one of them. I'm going sheffler for cash games I agree. I would go sheffler there for tournaments a single entry specifically I want john rom again our philosophy here for tournaments is be different without being dumb And it is not going to be dumb to roster john rom at a reduced roster rate. Um rom It's not that long ago that he was golfing like a robot. He has good distance phenomenal irons to Work at this kind of course. He's had some time off. Hopefully that's helped him reset Whatever was bugging him before where he had that slight again slight down tick still finished 10th at the u.s Open so wasn't like he was totally off his salary is 12 000. So it's high but I think that's fair. Uh, given it's john rom. So I think that I want to have exposure to benefit if he wins I'd say for like multi entry. I would say my breakdown if I'm going 100 across all three I would want scottie in 45 rory in 35 rom and 20. Maybe I should change that that's kind of weird I don't know. I'll think on it. I I want to make sure I have enough rom to benefit if he wins Is what I would say for for multi entry. It's a lot easier for me to think in terms of single entry So I think ron's a great play there. Any final thoughts for you on the big three Love them. I would just I'd be fine putting brooks in there Um at the bottom of that tier. Yeah, I'm fine including him with them is what I would do there Uh, who else is like in the upper range for this week? I'm gonna go ricky at 10 8 uh, he's just you know playing really good golf And the one area where I think that he's or not that I think that I know He's not as good as the rest of the field as the off the t-play and that's the one stat That I can live with most uh for this week He is fourth in the field and stroke scan approach through putting which is more or less what I'm looking for uh for this week uh runner up here in 2014 69th percentile putter From within 15 feet this season, uh, which you love to see Yeah, I think that ricky is if it weren't for patrick cantley being right there ricky would be like a prime focal point for me Which is why cantley is the guy I have here is my uh second high salary play I understand when people are annoyed at him majors or just in general, but 10 9 I think is underselling How good he is he ranks fourth in data golf's true strokes gained across the past six months behind just rom Rory cheffler He did this to cut last week at the genesis scottish open But that was primarily due to a bad short game which is not typical for patrick cantley. He's got good distance He's got good accuracy. So no matter how the course plays. It should be fine for cantley He's finished top 15 in five straight majors as you discussed before so I think the idea of both is pretty attractive I will definitely be like when I first go to build tournament lineups I think that's probably the first build I want to tinker with having cantley and fowler in there But if I had to pick one I pick cantley, but it's by a very small margin over ricky fowler for this week Moving down to the mid range. We've both got windham clark. We talked about it a couple times What puts you on windham at 9500 dollars for this week? Yeah, just a great overall uh golfer right now great form um Good good putter and like what we saw in the u.s. Open is the ability to to lag put and just chip Like crazy. So he's gonna have to do some creative things this week. I think that that Bows really well for windham clark. So whether it's distance irons putting some creativity Overall form recent form He has it all and I don't really see a reason aside from game theory to move away from windham clark And you can still play windham clark and be different. I don't think he's going to be like that chalky I think he's just to stand out about you play Yeah, we don't typically see guys in that range wind up being uber chalk Maybe that's different for a guy who just won the most recent major His salary is up 200 dollars. I think from where it was. No, he was 87. Maybe I don't know whatever It's not up a lot from where he was at the u.s. Open He ranks 11th in data golf true strokes game the past six months, but he is 27th in salary. So I think that he is the like so for cash games for our head to head Specifically, I have to like figure out ways to be different like make my line of different from yours I will not be doing so via windham clark He is kind of like just the the free square for a head to head for this week Who else do you like in the mid-range for the open championship? Windham was 88 for the u.s. Open. Okay, perfect I had just and rose but i'm going to pivot that last second to I still like rose. I'm just fine, but i'm going to pivot to hideki He's been top 32 at all three majors lost strokes and putting in all of them His ball striking is pretty phenomenal. There have been 19 measured majors for him in his career With shot link data, he's gained from approach in 17 of those The worst he's done is lost 0.15 strokes per round with the irons you know, we know that That's basically the hideki story Is great tea to green You know letting himself down on the greens, but 43rd percentile putter from within 15 feet this year I'm I'm here for it. Yeah, I like hideki a lot, too If I wound up in that range because I think that he just checks a lot of boxes 98 is a very fair salary. So I'll be there on hideki as well My second insider play is Bryson D. Shambo finishes in majors of fourth 20 at the past two majors. He didn't miss a cut the master. So that matters as well But since the u.s. opens so since the most recent major Bryson has finished second and 11th in the two live events Whatever that's worth distance has been typical Bryson even with the Physical changes undergone his approach game very good in the two events where we have data on him outside of the masters $94 very low for a guy Who I think has his upside and again If distance does want a mattering Bryson would be a guy who'd benefit from that So I like D. Shambo a lot at 94. I like the idea of having him with windham But if I had to pivot off windham, I think the hideki and Bryson D. Shambo The first two guys I would think to to pivot away from him Just to reduce the raw straight and make sure it's not a hundred percent But again just 96 for windham clark Value plays we both have the top value play being the same as well We both had patrick read at $9,000. What puts you on patrick read? I did not realize you had read there Well, you put them on the sheet before I did so that's why That makes sense So this I was the one who copied you, but I think that he's the right option here. Wow. All right I'm not a patrick read guy. You know, you can't put that one on me, but like, um I did wind up there Well, i'm gonna talk about your boy patrick read here He's largely shown up at this year's majors t4 at the masters t18 at the pga t56 at the us open Um, you know, it's tough. We don't have stats for the live tour. We can only do our best, but T2 t5 at the past two events since the us open It's basically just knowing long term What read can do Looking at the the finishes looking at the majors, you know, again, I hate talking well I hate talking live from a Like analytical standpoint because there's just no numbers and I I feel like it's just a hot take to sort of say that This golfer is playing well or I like them But it really is all we can do is sort of impute How someone's playing and I don't think that patrick read is Like hitting the ball 500 yards all of a sudden he's probably just playing patrick read golf Which is pretty good and that's salary. I think we should be open to it. Yeah, same here Again, you mentioned the major finishes fourth 18th and 56th It was aided by putting for sure. So that that does matter For those events specifically, but he also is a good putter So it's not like that's coming out of nowhere fifth and second in the two live events since the us open So I think that $9,000 for a guy with his ability to do what he did at the masters Pretty enticing. So I think that read is a an option with a blend of good meeting expectation But also very good upside for his salary your second value pick is a guy we both liked any mccarthy 89 What led you to mccarthy this week? Yeah, talked about the putting splits 98th percentile putter from within 15 feet on the season um pretty solid form just like and or sorry Like stats t-degree and otherwise doesn't really lag anywhere like he's not great at anything and he's a great putter so like If he just plays that kind of golf, he should be able to play pretty well relative to the salary so I'm just not going to overthink it and Honestly putting so hard to to sort of predict whenever you get someone who's just Week in week out reliable and is not a complete red flag everywhere else Those are the types of golfers that I was historically too low on Including mccarthy, but mccarthy is also playing a lot better golf in the other areas now So he's without reason or flooding Like he's got he's gained that stuff without losing the key strength and then that's enticing you mentioned the major history A lot of that spans back, you know the he was only in three of those five majors But one of those before has formerly picked up and finished seventh there So I think that's pretty enticing too with mccarthy and I do like him. I also like keegan bradley He's my second player pick here in the the low salary range He had a pretty long bad stretch in majors But seems like he's fully over that right now since the start of last year Keegan has made four out of six cuts, which is not perfect, but three top 30 finishes majors He has enough distance to hang. He's actually a bit above average in that regard his distance Has been trending up a bit recently. We know the approach game for keegan is very good He's having plus weeks with the putter, which is weird and kind of enticing But it's also been a decently large sample now of him being fine as a putter It might not stick, but the sample on it is growing. So Keegan 88 makes a lot of sense Brandon. I want to ask you When you look at the guys Let's go beyond keegan. Let's go eight thousands low eight thousand range and lower When you're looking for guys down there if you want to like tip the scale Let's talk about Harman before you mentioned adam shank I think shanks my favorite of the guys, you know in the low eight thousands or the seven thousand range who can really Make things a lot easier. Do you have a favorite preferred option down there? If you want to really make it a lot easier to jam in studs Um, probably Harman I'd say Harman and then shank Uh I think it's probably those two primarily. Yeah without getting overexposed also just a shout uh to keegan bradley um 94th percentile putter from within 15 feet. So What hard to fake that That's bananas. Yeah pg tour they have a They don't have a page within 15 feet, but they have five to 15 and it's like Oh, it's hard to find From a google search. It doesn't take you there But I'm trying to pull that up to to sort of confirm which is for anyone listening Probably the best stat you could look at is like putting from five to 15 feet if you're just using the pga tour site And looking at like long-term sort of putt but keegan bradley putting god Sure sure let's go with it. Okay. So I like shank most of that uh that lower range you like Harman most But I think in general we're accepted to those guys if you find somebody like down there in order to make To get back to the mid-range Make getting back there a bit easier No, the stats aren't loading at all, but that's it. Good. Love to see it Windpicks here for the open championship once again the disclaimer we gave last week is that I am way behind in this need to make up grounds I'll be Launching darts and seeing what happens because I need to in order to win this contest This does not mean their recommendations from a betting perspective over at vandal sportsbook If you do decide to bet them, please do so responsibly at very low stakes because You're probably going to lose that bet. Please keep that in mind when you do so. Okay disclaimer aside Brandon who are hot god dang it. Hideki shortened again. Huh? Who are your windpicks this week? Uh, I already penciled in john rom in xander schroff life for me Rom Yeah, didn't expect that. Why? I thought you'd go. I can't lay or something. Well, I mean, I think kelly is a good value But I think rom is just Just a tick off of value again. I haven't plus I like that you picked rom I think that's a good pick. I just was surprised Yeah, I'm going rom at 12 and xander at 25. Okay See if rom and xander I need a long shots. Hideki was 100 then he was 70 then he was 65. He's now 60 very rude Just as a reminder, you can give like recommendations You do think are good values and then I'm you can put it. Oh, yeah, I forgot about that. Um Well, xander's the one I've actually bet without a boost. So I guess it'd be xander at 25 um Would be the way I go there Boy Wyndham clark and 50 We're running it back Wyndham clark 50 to 1 um, just again the Feel the adjusted numbers for clark. I think are better than most of the golfers in the 50 to 1 range So We'll go with him Wyndham clark 50 to 1 and then I do still feel like hideki is very much worth considering at 60 But I also think that bryce d. Shambo is at 60. So I'm going to go bryce and at 60 over hideki When I was between Wyndham clark and mito effin purrera, uh for the us open I picked mito instead of windham I'd be in the lead if I'd picked windham, but I'm a moron. I did bet him didn't pick him. Um so This guarantees hideki wins congratulations hideki and your 2023 winning the 151st open championship But I will go with bryce d. Shambo and windham clark is my win picks for the show If I were actually giving betting recommendations, I'd go zander at 25 because I think 25 is weird for someone as good as him for as long as he's been that good People think that he can't win some I hear people talk about like when trying to bet majors that Those guys doesn't he doesn't even want a major. It's like if that's your if that's a must for you I don't either at windham clark before the us open and look what happens So I mean that means that no one's ever going to win a major for the first time again Which seems a little silly, but eventually we'll run out of major winners No, the t the t1 like taylor gooch. Yeah on the live tour Any final thoughts for you brandon before we close up shopper today I think we covered pretty much everything. I would probably say the the range that we glossed over the most was The transition from the low tens to the upper nines so guys like max homa justin thomas tony finnell dustin johnson matt Fitzpatrick I think they're like viable. I don't think they're like scratch offs, but they're really not where i'm looking to To a sort of attack line at building So just kind of wanted to float out that I I am aware that we didn't talk about really any of those names But I think it's for a reason for me. Yeah, I think that With the builds we want There's advantages being a bit above them a bit below them. That's the reason we didn't get there But you know if your research leads you to tony finnell I'm not going to talk you out of that. You know makes a lot of sense as always That is all that we have here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast as a reminder Please make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We were here every week talking pga dfs leading into that week's event on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed If you want some betting thoughts on the open championship We discuss this over on covering the spread with brandon breaking down What his model was saying as far as bets for this week over at fandals sportsbook You can find that on the covering the spread podcast feed the fendal youtube page and over on fendal tv Plus brandon if people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? i'm on twitter Occasionally at gudula 13 gd ul a one three Tweet not all your rory macaroy threads, but not on threads interesting I spent like a lot of time on compiling that I think you got like one like And then it turned out that he just started putting it really well um magic so magic if I just tweet like a stupid joke Probably gets more traction So can you tweet a good thread about uh windham glark for me to make him start putting I mean, I guess he's already putting well, but you know Help me out here. That's not it's not how it works. Okay It's more about the math the request is still in The math can say what I wanted to say I'm on twitter at gymsonus and j i m s a n n e s want to thank you all for tuning in Good luck with your lives to the open championship. Enjoy the gulf. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire