 Yes, thank you Mark and Kiora, dear friends, and let me just start by saying that in the first day here I shared with you that there's never been as much reason as today as a scientist to be nervous, but there's never been so much reason to be hopeful. But I must actually say that that balance has changed over the last two days, thanks to what has occurred here, the hope is dominating, and I'd like to thank you for that. It's absolutely clear that we have a window of opportunity. Secondly, I'd like to just flag to you that I'll be building this lecture now, entirely on what Joseph said. If this is an incubator of transformation, if this is a place of thinking, of systemic new transformations, I'd like to share with you a few ideas on disruptive transformation. How can we accelerate? How can we amplify? How can we do the unexpected to really transition faster than ever into a safe and just safe operating space for humanity on Earth? But I'd like to do that with a little bit of repetition. You know, the mother of learning is repetition. So I just very quickly like to walk through with you the scientific evidence why Vicki is right when I'm trying to convince that we have a decade to really, really turn things around because we're facing such ample risks. I'd like to start just by this little philosophical reminder that we are an embedded part of the biosphere, which has been so central to this discussion here. We depend on it. We influence it. We are a species among species on Mother Earth. But also remember that we depend entirely on this 20 kilometer thin film of atmosphere that creates the biosphere, which is so thin, as you know, that if Mother Earth was a basketball and if you layer it with a very thin, of course, degradable plastic film, that is as thin as the atmosphere is. This is our biosphere. Never ever, you know, get cheated by us not being able to influence the entire Earth system because we depend on such a thin layer. And the deepest insight, which really is what I would argue we need to embed in all our values, is that we have shifted just over the last 50 years from being a relatively small world on a big planet, the belief that is still predominating in the world today, the belief that developed all our current macroeconomic paradigms, our governance systems, our consumer patterns, everything we see around us is based on the notion that Mother Earth is so big and she's able to absorb so much unsustainable pressure because we're so small. But dear friends, we have so much scientific evidence that over the last generation we've tipped over and we're now the dominant. We are the big world on a small planet and now is the time to really recognize that planetary stewardship is not about the global action as opposed to the local. Oh no, my core message to you is let's please, please really recognize that all the ingenuity, all the values, all the action locally is now to be embedded within the global context, that science and values, the local and the global, are intimately interdependent. We live in this interconnected world where all of us are one collective on this small, small little planet. And if anything, I could stop there actually because that is basically my story. But I like to do it in an evidence-based way, typically academic, with just laying out you very quickly what's the evidence behind this. Well, the number one, I stated it before, we scientists, I would argue this is the most important message from the scientific community across all disciplines, we welcome humanity to the Anthropocene. And this is based on, Felix showed it, not on simulations, not on models, it's empirical data showing the exponential rise of human pressures on planet Earth. That started in 1955, 10 years after the Second World War, we are then just three billion co-citizens and we put in the high gear what has been called now, scientifically, the moment of the great acceleration of the industrial metabolism. This is when we go to scale. This is, to put it simple, you can pick any parameter in the biosphere that regulates our economy, that determines our human well-being and our life happiness, and they all look the same. You take from biodiversity, over-utification, overuse of water, land degradation, and of course the classic carbon dioxide emissions, it's a hockey stick pattern of exponential rise. You know, the warnings came early. Rachel Carson warned 1962 in Silent Spring, Limits to Growth came out in 1972 and warned if we continue on this path, we might get a drawdown on the world economy by 2020. Well, you know, they were shot down by policy makers, business leaders, macro-economists. You could almost excuse them because Rachel Carson was such an insightful woman who had foresight, she had no data to stand on. She was just at that beginning of the exponential curves. Today, dear friends, we are the first generation to stand on the top of a mountain of evidence of exponential rise of pressures. We're the first generation with absolutely no excuse to act, but in 1962, you could almost excuse those who said, look here, we don't really believe that it has to go this wrong because Rachel Carson was just at the beginning of the curve. We are not in the beginning of the curve, we're at the end of the curve, we've hit the ceiling. So dear friends, welcome to the Anthropocene. Now the good news is that this is starting to be understood. Around the world, you see ample, ample media policy, business recognizing that we are in this new geological epoch. It started actually with the economists, as you see the front page here, welcoming humanity to the Anthropocene. The economist, as you may know, is this beautiful, eloquent, strict, British weekly, so influential in the economic business world. I'm great admirer of the economist. It has this kind of British understatement type language, which I find so convincing sometimes. And there's a quote in here, which reflected so well and still reflects how we scientists feel today. And it says as follows. When things are changing faster than science stipulates it should, a certain degree of nervousness is a reasonable response. And British understatement. And you know, that's exactly what we're seeing. Things are changing faster than science stipulates it should. Not a certain, but a significant degree of nervousness is a reasonable response. So dear friends, welcome to the Anthropocene. Number two is, of course, if we're punching Mother Earth with exponential rise, the question is can we define the desired state of the planet? And the answer is yes. We have so much data from Paliochlamatic, iScore data that can tell us that we now know where the planet needs to be to support humanity. I call this the Garden of Eden. And this is here shown through the data set in what I would argue is the world's second most important figure because the first most important scientific figure will come in the next slide. This is iScore data from Greenland. On the x-axis you have 100,000 years. It's a perfect time span. You may have seen that we normally present this as one million years, fluctuating in and out of ice ages, going into interglacials, ice age interglacials, the melancholic cycles of 100,000 years. Why is this one so good? Well, it's because we've been modern humans on Mother Earth for roughly 80,000 years. So we've had the same intellectual and physical ability to build and develop civil societies as we have today. This was a very rough time for humanity. On the y-axis you have temperature variability and it was a jumpy ride indeed. In fact, we were hunters and gatherers. We were a few million people. We had a very rough time until we exit this period and we enter what you see here right at the end, the hollow scene, the Eden's Garden, the last interglacial period when we left the last ice age. You see that jumpy period? You may see a drop point that roughly 75,000 years back. This is deep ice age minus four degrees Celsius. It's actually minus 10 at this point in the northern hemisphere. Sea levels are 70 meters lower than today. Humans are hiding up in the Ethiopian highlands. It's the only place where there's some little fresh water and some little biomass left to find food. The latest scientific data show that we are less than 15,000, 15,000 fertile adults on earth at that crunch point. We are virtually extinct because it was such a jumpy, tough ride. Actually, there's another conclusion here, by the way. It tells us something quite important in the world of rising conflict and geopolitical difficulties in the world. It means we're very close relatives, all of us. 15,000 adults were the source of all of us. So we should actually hold hands a little bit further across different cultures. Now we exit the last ice age and we enter the hollow scene. And what do we do? Well, you all know the most important invention of all time, much more important than mobile phones and electric vehicles and everything you can imagine. We go from hunters and gatherers to become farmers. We domesticate animals and plants. And that's so extraordinary because it happens immediately when we enter the hollow scene. And moreover, it's not like a Hevrecha moment when somebody wakes up in the morning, comes up, wow, I came up with this brilliant idea of planting a seed. Oh no, we know that it occurred very differently because we domesticated maize, teth, rice and wheat on different continents roughly at the same time. And the last time I checked, we had no mobile phones or internet at the time. So this was something that happened because Mother Earth settled down. She became so predictable. She became so beautiful. Everything we've come to love, all the forests and grasslands and coral reefs, of course, the genetic diversity has been there for a hundred million years, but it settles in the hollow scene. Everything that we identify ourselves with, everything that we love, everything that is our identity, settles into the hollow scene. And the most important thing, the rainy seasons become predictable. The growing season come back year after year after year. So suddenly it becomes worth it. The risk becomes so low, it's worth to invest in planting the seed. In fact, most likely cultivating was known before, probably by women in nomadic cultures, but it was not worth doing it in that jumpy ice age period. So we invent agriculture. We start differentiating. We become innovators. We start developing villages, cities, modern societies. We're three and a half billion people at the Great Acceleration. We're 7.6 today. We're committed to nine and a half. And the scientific conclusion is as simple as it is dramatic. The hollow scene is the only state of the planet we know for certain can support humanity. And that is, of course, a punch in the stomach. But I argue it is something beautiful as well because it gives us for the first time a reference point of a desired state of the planet. And we know the hollow scene so well. There's so much science behind it. There's even a scientific journal called the hollow scene. So this is such an opportunity for us to define a safe operating space of how can we keep Mother Earth in a hollow scene state in site two? The Garden of Eden is the hollow scene state. Inside three then finally, is that if we punch Mother Earth, the big question of course is how does she respond? And she is fantastic. She's so resilient. You know, it's like a boxer. You've probably seen the Rocky movies perhaps, you know, he can take a first round and a second round and a third round punching and punching and he just stands. Mother Earth is like Rocky the boxer just taking the punches because she's so resilient and she's so forgiving and she's our best friend. And she has been so, and in fact she continues to be so. Can you imagine? We admit today 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning every year, which leads to global warming. But is it all of that that remains in the atmosphere and raises temperature? Oh no, Mother Earth is so forgiving, so resilient that she's absorbing still half of those in the oceans and the natural ecosystems. Why does she do this? Well you see, she does it because she's applying all the geophysical and biological processes that are there to remain in a hollow-seen state. We have proof of this, and you know what the proof is? The proof is that when we were emitting only 20 gigatons, roughly some 30 years back, Mother Earth was absorbing half of that, 10. But now as we are punching her harder and harder in the eighth and ninth round of the boxing match, she's actually absorbing more and more. She continues to do everything she can to remain stable. And we have so much proof of this which actually gives us the very steep, deep insight that we have to keep the Earth system resilient. Now the trouble is that science evidence shows today that that's at risk because we have tipping points. Because a certain period of time, Mother Earth is strong, she's standing in the boxing ring, she can take punches. Up until a certain point when she becomes so weak that the risk is that a little extra punch takes her across the threshold and she shifts over from one equilibrium state through a bifurcation to another state. These are the tipping points when you are at risk of losing rainforest to savannahs, losing ice sheets to darker areas of only liquid. And all of these thresholds are increasingly documented and they are separated by feedback shifts. And those feedbacks are what scientists are most nervous about. That we have feedbacks that today reduce and dampen and they can tip over to become self-reinforcing. You've probably heard of the risk of forest dieback, releasing carbon dioxide, permafrost throwing, ice melting, the Earth gets darker and absorbs more heat. These are feedbacks and we have today and here comes the most important graph scientifically, the most important graph which goes as follows. This is what you see here is the end point of that beautiful exit from the ice age into the Garden of Eden. So on the x-axis is time, last 20,000 years and you see temperature on the y-axis and you see that beautiful line of extraordinary stability which actually is within plus minus one degree Celsius. Now this is the Paris Agreement. This is the agreement to stay below two degrees aiming for one and a half degrees Celsius. A reminder actually that even the Paris Agreement though being ambitious is actually outside of the Holocene range. But here comes the very important insight. Here are the IPCC trajectories of where we're at risk of going. We're actually heading towards this three, four degree Celsius warming as you know. That's why we need so much action quickly. But here comes the layering of the knowledge we have today at what temperatures we risk crossing tipping points. Of systems on Earth that regulates the state of the planet and which therefore determines human well-being. Be it in an African rural village in New Zealand or in Sweden. And I just want to focus briefly on this little square here which are the systems that are at risk that dip into Paris. So the width of these columns here is the uncertainty range in science. We are uncertain. We don't know exactly at what point systems tip. But look at the point to the furthest right there with our coral reefs. According to the scientific knowledge we have today, the entire uncertainty range is within Paris. Which means that unfortunately we've come to a point where it's very likely, even probable, that we will be losing all tropical coral reefs even below two degrees Celsius. And we're heading very rapidly in that direction. But you see also that Greenland here, which holds seven meters sea level rise, despite the wide uncertainty, is also dipping into Paris. Today we are not certain that we can keep the green light sheet stable at two degrees Celsius. And of course, it doesn't mean that Greenland would melt overnight. Oh no, it would probably take 200, 300, perhaps even 400 years. But the point is that we are at risk of putting our finger on an on button. And if we push the on button, we cannot turn back. Nobody knows how to re-freeze the green light sheet. So this is the challenge of really incorporating precaution and new values of reconnecting to the biosphere for us to become planet Earth's doers. So these, dear friends, is in my mind the journey that science now offers, that the Anthropocene plus the Garden of Eden plus the inside of tipping points leads us to planetary boundaries. We need a new framework. We need to ask ourselves, how can we stay in a Holocene light condition? What are the processes that really regulates the state of the Earth system? And what are the quantitative science targets that can give us a boundary that provides us a safe operating space within which we can have safe and just future for humanity on Earth? And that's what led to the Planetary Boundary Framework. You've seen it, perhaps. It is a guide to be able to kind of chart our future at the global scale, but increasingly also being adopted by businesses and countries around the world as a framework to be able to go beyond climate, to really recognize, just like Vicki pointed out, it's equally important with land, with water, with biodiversity, nitrogen, phosphorus, the stratospheric ozone layer, and chemicals. We have to have a systemic, integrated approach with the new frontiers represents so eloquently. We see businesses really taking up this framework today and trying to implement it. We see business networks around the world, like the World Business Council, operating more according to this framework, trying to get science-based targets for the Earth system. So I'm quite enthusiastic, actually. Things are changing. And there's a very deep recognition that is starting to emerge, particularly within the global environment facility, that biomes like this that we have talked about in terms of conservation and protection, of course that is important. There are intrinsic values here for communities and cultures and the nature itself that are infinite. That's why I'm not so enthusiastic about putting a price on nature. But also, dear friends, let's recognize that these are actually now integral to our prosperity on Earth, irrespective of where you live. We depend on these beautiful systems for the prosperity, for jobs, for the economy, for the welfare of any scale, at any community, or any nation on Earth. So that's, again, this connection between the local and the global. And in the last 10 minutes, let me now give you two examples of disruptive transformations that emerge from this science. The first one is called the global carbon law. We recognize that the only chance to really deliver a future within the safe boundary on climate is an exponential journey to decarbonize the world economy. It builds on a new scientific idea of connecting the science on what we have to accomplish with the Gordon Moore's law from 1960s, early 1960s, where Gordon Moore stipulated the founder of Intel that as a self-fulfilling prophecy, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy that the speed of conductors and transistors on computers would double the speed on computers every 18 to 24th month, which is actually a path that we followed as an innovation pathway in the whole ICT industry, perhaps the most disruptive industry in the world. Well, we published half a year back something that we call the global carbon law, which we hope can be the equivalent of the Moore's law. And it goes as follows. This is what we have to accomplish to deliver Paris. This is a summary of the IPCC in the governmental panel climate change curves. On the y-axis, you have emission of greenhouse gases in terms of carbon dioxide. And on the x-axis, it's time from today until end of century. The first insight is we have to bend the curve of emissions no later than 2020 and then rush down in a pace of six, seven percent reductions per year of emissions to become essentially a fossil fuel-free world economy by mid-century. But that's not enough. To achieve Paris, we also have to transform the brown line you may see there, which is agriculture, from being the single largest net source of greenhouse gases to becoming, in the next half of the century, the single largest sink of carbon. This is nothing less than an agricultural revolution. The interesting thing is, and we've been discussing it so much the last few days, we know how to do it. But that's not enough. The third insight is that, I'm sorry to say, there are no climate science scenarios that takes us to Paris that do not include what you see on the screen here, which is major investments in scaling of carbon capture and storage. This assumption that we can engineer ourselves to add sucking up carbon dioxide and retrofitting coal-fired plants to take up carbon dioxide. We have no proof that this is happening. I would argue that this is something that is very dangerous to rely too deeply on. But not even that is enough, because finally, and perhaps most importantly, we have to maintain ecosystem integrity. We have to be guardians of our ecosystems to maintain the resilience and the negative carbon sinks on land and in oceans, shown here in green and blue. And if we do all of this, decarbonize energy system, transform agriculture, scale CCS, and really it becomes two words of ecosystems, we have a 66% chance of staying on the two. So dear friends, it is a global sustainability transformation. We're in a disruptive point where we have everything to win to really take an integrated approach. Never isolate Paris to just being an energy transition. Now the exciting thing is that this gray curve you see there happened to translate into a carbon law, which is very simple, and it goes as follows. The carbon law equivalent of the Moore's law is halving emissions every decade can take us to Paris. It means bending the curve by 2020 at 40 gigatons, reaching 20 by 2030, 10 by 2040, and the residual of five by 2050. That pace, halving emissions every decade is the pathway we need to follow. This has now started to be adopted by businesses around the world. We're discussing it with governments. We're taking it to the Global Climate Action Summit that Jerry Brown, governor in California, is hosting in San Francisco in September, getting the CEOs of the large disruptive ICT industries to adopt the carbon law and spread it around the world with the idea of really making it a global, manifested campaign journey towards halving emissions every decade. So this is one example of something that could really start taking us disruptively in the right direction. Now, you may, of course, think, well, isn't this just utopia? Perhaps even completely unrealistic. And let me just try to convince you that it's not, that this is absolutely possible because there's something very unexpected and exciting happening right now. This graph, which may look a little bit complicated, but it's very simple, comes from international energy agency data. It shows on the y-axis the total energy mix in the world. You may see in the gray shade here, 30% is coal, another 30% is oil, you have gas, nuclear, and hydro, and then there's a little sliver in the bottom is renewable energy in the world, which goes from 0.8% to roughly 2.8% over the last 15 years. This is why, by the way, that oil companies tend to say, of course we trust science, but what can we do? We have an obligation to provide modern energy systems to lift people out of poverty. We must continue digging up coal. But that is wrong because you see that little curve. For any one of you who remember your old high school math knows that when you are in an exponential journey, it starts slow, but then it goes very fast. And can you imagine the pace by which renewable energy is increasing in the world over the last 15 years is doubling every 5.5 years? Doubling every 5.5 year renewable energy in the world, not only electricity, the entire energy mix. Now, the first curve you see there, the first one to the left, is just prolonging business as usual. Meaning, if you continue doubling every 5.5 years, we would actually reach a fossil fuel free world economy 2045. We're actually, if we follow business as usual, going faster than a carbon law. So to put it simple, let's just continue what we've been doing the last 15 years and just keep it going and not allow it to halt. So it seems to me that something can happen disruptively if we adopt a global carbon law. Let me then jump to a completely different sector where we're also experimenting with disruptive transformations. The seafood industry in the world, you all know that particularly those living in this part of the Pacific Ocean that we have unsustainable fisheries where we've overexploded 70% of the oceans. We have actually risk of collapse of large parts of fisheries in the oceans across the entire planet, despite increased protein demand. Now, we did a mapping a few years back of all the seafood industries in the world with the hypothesis that what if the seafood industry is equivalent roughly to a natural ecosystem that in the ecosystem you have different species but some species, we call keystone species, what are the species that determines the fundamental outcome of the state of the ecosystems? You know, the caribous and the high predators that really determine finally how the food chain operates. Well, not surprisingly, we found exactly this behavior in the seafood industry. So what you see here are the 13 companies that are outliers in terms of profit, in terms of fishing the world's oceans, in terms of influencing the whole value chain, in terms of dominating markets across the world. And these 13 we identified, and four of them in Japan, four in Norway actually, in the whole aquaculture industry, two more in Asia, one in the US, one in Spain. And what we then decided to publishing this research was something quite unusual for science. We invited the CEOs of these companies. We said, what if you could sit around the table? What if we could share the science that we have? What if we could have a discussion of the fact that you are at risk of cutting off your branch because you're destroying the basis for your own business? What if we could get the Keystone actors to adopt a completely new logic around ocean stewardship and the hypothesis, you may call it naive, but the hypothesis being that if the Keystone actors start behaving in a new way, could they change the ecosystem? So we invited the CEOs and to our big surprise, 10 and the 10 biggest came. And we sat down on an island out of Thailand and spent four days with these CEOs, just bashing the science together, not pointing fingers, but just really, really discussing together a new strategy for ocean stewardship. Out of that has come an initiative that we now call Seaboss Seafood Business for Ocean Stewardship, where they commit to take on a new logic of stewardship of the oceans and to become the leading Keystone actors in this whole space. We will be meeting in Tokyo in just a few months, which is unique because the Japanese giants, the biggest in the world, normally operate entirely under the radar screen. They never ever present themselves under any circumstances, but now things are happening. And we're hoping that this could be a disruptive transformation equivalent to, this hope that David could knock over Gulyat, that you gather large enough minorities of significant Keystone actors in different sectors. And if they want to move in that direction, they could perhaps knock over Gulyat and really change the logic in the big majority across the whole market. So these are examples of disruptive transformations that we may be able to explore at the planetary scale. Now, just to close to say that, I will then argue as a wrapping up that the science now supports that we do have to become planetary stewards. So I'm so glad that that has been a core of the thematic discussion here. Planetary stewardship is clearly about recognizing the sustainable development goals. We've never had, can you imagine, we've never had a roadmap for the first time with aspirational socioeconomic goals based on equity, based on universality for all co-citizens in the world within planetary boundaries. And that is quite extraordinary. The millennium development goals were about poverty and we're not about sustainability and did not put pressure on us who live way, way beyond our means of exploiting unsustainably planet Earth. But we as scientists have recognized that there's a risk with this chart. It looks like a Swedish smorgasbord to be honest. You know, you can kind of cherry pick your favorites and then go off and deliver on it. So we have translated this to a new integrated framework which we call the wedding cake, which is stating very clearly that there are some non-negotiable sustainable development goals. Goal six on water, go 13 on climate, go 14 on oceans, go 15 on biodiversity and that these are the safe operating space within which we can have a just, equitable, social inclusive development attaining the social aspirational goals, the economy and those goals being means of achievement and that governance is the way to get our partnerships together. So we think that there is something tying together what has been so beautifully represented here with the local ownership and kind of culture around ecosystems all the way to the planetary stewardship level. We are now gathering scientific communities and we call the world in 2050 which is exploring disruptive pathways to attain the STGs by 2030 and then continue the journey within a safe and just safe operating space on planetary boundaries in 2050. We need help here because these will be, as you say, very messy journeys. New Zealand can be one full scale example of this enormous transition into a desired, equitable future on planet Earth but we need to do it in multiple scales, in multiple domains across the world and become a planetary force because fundamentally it is about this. We are the big on the small planet. We are embedded in the biosphere. We are the biosphere and that if we do not recognize this as a value shift which again I think the new frontiers has been such a strong voice for getting this across the world is one way to succeed. So thank you very much for this opportunity to engage with you and looking forward to continue together. Thank you. Oh. Thank you.