 Finally, after what feels like several months of emphasizing Lachlad for race after race after race, we get our pre from that this weekend at the Dixie Vodka 400 down in Homestead, Miami, the first time that this race has not been the season finale since all the way back in 2001. So it's going to be a different race and it's going to be, at least in my eyes, a fun one for DFS because we've got a whole lot of freedom. So let's break that down and figure out which drivers we should target for Sunday's race. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down the Dixie Vodka 400 from a NASCAR DFS perspective. Lach for this race is at 3.30 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday and we already know where every driver is going to start. So once again, we have a situation where as you listen to this podcast, you can go right now and fill out your lineups because we have all the data we're going to get. So feel free if you want to to go fill out lineups. I can give my actual rankings based on qualifying for each of these tiers, which we will do exactly that in the tier by tier breakdown. So should be a pretty fun race and I love the flexibility of being able to fill out lineups as the week goes along. We'll take a look at the track breakdown here in just one second. But first, have you ever wondered what would happen if the Chicago Bears had drafted Patrick Mahomes or if Michael Vick played against Lamar Jackson? Well now, you get to find out with FanDuel's Football Multiverse, a new contest type consisting of Madden simulations around crazy what if scenarios. Each scenario will be streamed on YouTube and have an accompanying free to play fantasy game. Next week's episodes include what if the Patriots were to sign Cam Newton and what if we took away the weapons from Patrick Mahomes? Would he still be the Mahomes we know and love if we were to do that? Both contests are now available. I believe in the FanDuel lobby, so fill those out. Watch the streams Wednesday and Thursday night at 8 p.m. Eastern on the FanDuel YouTube page. JJ Zacharyson and I will be on the call for those eligibility restrictions apply. Also a quick reminder to subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed because we are kind of back in full swing outside of NBA and MLB, which hopefully will be back at some point in July. But we have PGA podcast going up every week now, Tuesday at 10 a.m. as well. One will be recording those. Those should be up both on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed and on the FanDuel YouTube page later on. And of course NASCAR podcast, as you are well aware, going up each week as well. Subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed to get your DFS on as we progress through the next couple of weeks. Track breakdown here for Homestead and again, we get a break from selling our souls for lap sled. If you look at the races since the end of the COVID-19 layoff, four of seven races in that time have been 325 or more laps and three of them were at least 400 laps. This one is only 267. That's still long enough where we shouldn't just completely disregard laps led, but it gives us a lot more freedom with where we can find our studs. In Martinsville, in Bristol, and for the Coca-Cola 600, we had to deploy the Waves strategy if we wanted to use studs starting in the back half of the top 12. That is not necessary here for a couple of reasons. The first one is that we don't need as many laps led on our rosters. There have been eight races since the start of last year on tracks similar to Homestead that are one and a half miles long and have lower banking. In those eight races, the five drivers compiling the perfect lineups in those races have averaged 139.25 laps led. Only one perfect lineup had less than 100 laps in it. So again, we can't just disregard those laps led, but it is nowhere near what it was for the longer races. In Martinsville, you needed like 400 laps led to have a perfect lineup. Here you need about a buck 39. That's not that bad at all. So we can't disregard them, but we can deemphasize it and not sell our souls for laps led. If you look at the other reason why it's okay to not sell out for starting position, it's because it's easy to pass on a multi groove track like Homestead. The drivers most likely to lead laps are all going to start in the top 12 spots. But Denny Hamlin led more than half the race from the 23rd starting position in Kansas last year, a similar track to Homestead. Joey Logano led 105 laps in Las Vegas last year. He started 20 seconds. We've seen on this track type, you can move to the field and lead a lot of laps regardless of where you are starting. It just happens to be everyone's going to start in the top 12 here, but it doesn't matter where they start within those top 12 spots. So if they're starting 12th, they can still in theory lead almost as many laps as the drivers starting first. So that's the key difference here between Martinsville and Homestead is that you don't need to use the way strategy. You can find your studs wherever you want within those top 12 spots. You should still roster two studs, but if they're starting first and second, that's fine. There are enough laps led for that to be a viable action. But let's say your two favorite drivers starting 11th and 12th, that is also okay. They should be able to work their way forward pretty quickly and if they're fast enough, they can potentially win that race. When you combine that with the lowered necessity of points from laps led, those drivers are going to be fine from a DFS perspective. So basically the key takeaway here is we have freedom in our studs. It doesn't really matter too much specifically where they start. Just pick your two favorite studs, lock them in, and go from there. That's the way you should handle the studs for this race. For the value plays, we do want to favor driver starting a bit further back and there are pretty good options here, which we'll talk about in the tier by tier breakdown. The reason why we want to do that is because it's easy to pass here. So starting 13th versus starting 24th will not drastically alter your projected finishing position, especially because it is 400 miles, there's a lot of time to make up ground. So the further back a driver starts, the better both their floor and their ceiling for DFS become. You don't have to disregard drivers starting closer to the front, like starting 13th, 14th, 15th, but I would give preference to drivers who drew lower qualifying positions when they did draw for the order last night. And I think that if you want an example of why this two-stud approach and then look for place differential is viable, just look back to last year's race at Homestead. In that race, both Kyle Bush and Martin Truex Jr. made the perfect lineup. They both led more than 100 laps. They started up front. That is the thought process for the studs. All of the value plays in that lineup started 16th or lower. Two of them started outside of the top 20 and that was another race where the starting lineup was set by owner points. So there, the same thing that we have this weekend, the drivers starting further back were drivers who had performed worse throughout the course of the year. It did not matter. They were still good options for DFS. So I would give a bump to all value plays who draw a lower spot in the starting order. And again, it's okay they haven't performed well thus far. They can still be good DFS options for us on Sunday. The one thing to keep in mind of value plays is that equipment does matter here more so than it has in several of the races recently. That means that punting will be a lot less viable than it was on Wednesday night. If the equipment isn't good enough, drivers won't be able to keep up with the competition and they won't be able to gain spots and they won't be able to finish well. So to get a read on which drivers have good enough equipment, I would focus most on the races in Charlotte and Atlanta. They're very different tracks from Homestead, but they both came out after the COVID-19 layoff and some teams have improved since we had that three month gap. And they were fast enough where those two tracks, I should say those two tracks Charlotte and Atlanta were fast enough where if the equipment wasn't good, they wouldn't have been able to keep up. And you would know based on the performances at those two races. So that's why I'd focus on Charlotte and Atlanta to judge if your value plays are fast enough to keep up. For the studs, I would put extra weight on the race in Las Vegas because that's the only other one on the schedule with similar banking to Homestead at least among those that are one and a half miles long. And there hasn't been as much movement among the studs as among the value plays since the end of the COVID-19 layoff. So we should look at Charlotte and Atlanta for them too. They obviously matter because they're a mile and a half and that matters, but Las Vegas is the closest analog we've got to Homestead thus far. If a stud was good there, we should expect them to be good once again on Sunday. So to recap the track breakdown here, we want two studs per Lana. Doesn't really matter where they start. If they're first and 12th, cool. If they're 11th and 12th, cool. If they're first and second doesn't matter. Pick your two favorites and go from there. I would give a bump to value plays who start further back as long as they are fast enough to compete. And to judge that, lean on Atlanta and Charlotte to determine if they have the necessary or the speed necessary to get a good finish for the studs. Look at those races, but also look at Las Vegas to decide who is going to contend. So with that said, let's move into our tier by tier breakdown for this weekend based on the salaries on Fando where we have Kevin Harvick in the elite tier at $14,500 through Denny Hamlin at $12,200. And there are three drivers who are clear standouts in my model. All three drivers are in this tier and all three are starting in the top seven spots. Those three drivers are Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano. Harvick grades out almost as well as he did in Atlanta, which is scary given how good he was there. His Atlanta ranking in my model was the eighth best for any driver at any race since the start of last year, and it was the best in 2020 by a good margin. This week he is 10th. So he was eighth best in Atlanta, 10th best this week. He ran really well in Las Vegas. He dominated Atlanta and he had speed in the second Charlotte race. So to me, Harvick deserves to sit a top hour list. Drivers in Harvick's tier in my model have won five of nine races. That's a small sample, so don't put a lot of stock in that. But the takeaway is he's got good odds to win this race and we should react accordingly. So Harvick is number one for me. Logano is not that far behind him. Logano actually won that race in Las Vegas. And again, if we're putting extra weight on that, it makes sense to bump up Logano. He had a top four average running position in that Las Vegas race and the second Charlotte race. So I'm going to put Logano second behind Harvick, which means that Truex is third. I have nothing against Truex. I think he's really good and he has been the one car who hasn't been as compromised by the Joe Gibbs racing struggle so far this year. But because the Gibbs cars have not been as good on the lower banked one and a half mile tracks as the Ford teams have been, I am going to put Truex just a little bit lower behind Harvick and Logano. So it's Harvick, Logano, Truex for the top studs for me on Sunday. As far as Kyle Busch goes, I'm still okay being lower on him. He was really good in Atlanta. You could use that to say that the the JGR cars are getting better. But that was also a heavy tire wear track where the driver can matter a bit more. It's going to be slick on Sunday because it's going to be super hot and that leads to slick conditions. So the driver does matter here too, but it doesn't matter quite as much, I wouldn't think, as it did in Atlanta. So that's going to put Busch down on the list for me. If I'm ranking this year again, it's Harvick, Logano, Truex for the top. I'll put Denny Hamlin after that. He's starting in the pole. Good speed. I think I would say maybe better speed than Busch, maybe potentially. So Hamlin's going to be fourth, followed by Kyle Busch, and then Brad Keselowski. I would not argue with you if you decided to rank any of them highest. I would probably push back on Kyle Busch being highest, but overall I think that to me it's Harvick, Logano, and Truex leading off this tier. The second tier is a good tier as well. It is Chase Elliott at $12,000 through Jimmy Johnson at $10,400. And I think there are three guys in this tier who could win this race. And those three are Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Alex Bowman. The case for Elliott is really easy. He has had a top nine average running position in every race since Daytona. And I have six races in my model that I deemed to be relevant from 2020, relevant to this track. And Elliott has had a top seven average running position in all six of those races. So if you look at just the current form section of my model, Chase Elliott is actually the number one driver in that portion. The reason that Harvick is ahead of him and Logano is because they have better track history and homestead. But Elliott's never been the championship four. And the championship four tended to do really well in those championship races. I don't put a lot of stock in track history as a result of that. And because of that, I can put Chase Elliott confidently number one in this tier for me. And I'd be okay considering Chase Elliott, betting him to win. He is eight to one right now at Fandall Sportsbook. Blaney and Bowman are more volatile than Elliott's, but their upside is pretty similar. Blaney almost won in Las Vegas. He finished third in both Charlotte races. He now has four top fives in the past five races. And in the one race where he didn't finish top five, he led 60 laps before crashing in that one. He was running really well, just happened to crash. So Blaney is knocking on the door of a win and he's going to get there eventually. He drew the 11th starting spot. So there's actually even some place differential juice here. Bowman was in Blaney's position earlier in the year where he was knocking on the door of a win, did get one in Fontana, but struggled a bit of late. He was really fast in the two Charlotte races. He was battling with Blaney for the win late in Las Vegas. Again, our most similar track so far. So from an odds perspective, I think that Chase Elliott has the best odds of winning this race in this tier. But I think that Blaney and Bowman can definitely get it done too. So my ranking in this tier is Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, and then there is a gap down to Jimmy Johnson and then Kurt Busch. All those drivers, again, are starting the top 12. I should note that as well. The mid-range on Fandall is William Byron at $10,000 through Matt DiBenedetto at $8,000. And the only driver in this tier starting inside the top 12 is Clint Boyer. I don't think he is a true threat to win. So I am okay being lower on Boyer than I am the other guys in this tier. The standout to me, if you can get there for both cash games and tournaments, is William Byron. Byron is starting 22nd and that is because he has made mistakes this year that have hurt him in the point standings. But that's to be expected of a driver who is just 22 years old. He had a top 10 average running position in Las Vegas and in the first Charlotte race. So the upside is there and he can get you extra upside via place differential. So Byron is probably going to be popular and I think he's kind of expensive. And so I think that Eric Jones is a pretty elite pivot off of Byron, given Byron's volatility. And I'm willing to do that. But straight up, Byron is a really strong option for all formats. And I think he fits really well in the line. It's where you use someone like Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney or Alex Bowman as your second stud, because they are a little bit cheaper than the guys in the Harvick Lugano Truex range. So Byron fits really well if your second stud is a little bit cheaper. Outside of Byron, the three other drivers in this tier, starting outside the top 20 are Eric Almerola, Tyler Redick and Matt DiBenedetto. And I am comfortable having all of them in my core for tournaments and considering those three drivers for cash games. Almerola just fell out of the top 12 in points on Wednesday and he drew the 21st starting place, which means he's going to place differential upside. But we know that car has speed. He's just underwhelmed as a driver so far this year, which has masked the strength within that car and within that team. But with the car mattering a little bit more this week, I am in on Almerola. Matt DiBenedetto, a similar line of thinking here because he is basically in a Penske car, so similar equipment to Blaney, Kezalowski and Lugano. DiBenedetto this year has had a top 14 average running position in Las Vegas, Atlanta and the second Charlotte race. And he actually finished second in that Las Vegas race as well. DiBenedetto starting 23rd and I'd expect him to move through the pack pretty quickly. So that's why I like those two guys. As for Redick, the equipment isn't as good as those two, but it's good enough and the talent here is awesome. Redick is a two-time Xfinity series champion and you win championships by winning at Homestead and that's exactly what Redick did both in 2018 and 2019. Looking at this year in the Cup Series, Redick had a top 13 average running position in both the Charlotte races, which means the equipment, although it may not be as good as DiBenedetto and Almerola, is good enough for him to compete. And he's starting back in 24th. So if I had to rank this tier, the guys in this tier, I think because of the salary discounts, I'd go DiBenedetto at the top, followed by Eric Almerola. I would go Byron three, despite the fact he's pricey and Tyler Redick would be fourth, but those three or four guys are all in consideration for cash and I want to get a lot of them for tournaments as well. This tier is just pretty much loaded and I'm okay with all of them. Eric Jones again, a high quality pivot off of Byron in tournaments and Austin Dillon is on Babywatch. So if you plan on using him, make sure he is actually at the track before walking away from your computer because he is supposed to have, or his wife is supposed to have their son at some point this week. If it's Sunday, he may miss the race. So make sure you are keeping tabs on Austin Dillon if you want to use him. He's really good in my model and I'm not overlooking him. He's just not starting quite as far back as DiBenedetto, Almerola and Redick. Moving down to the value tier, that is Ryan Newman at $7,800 through Christopher Bell at $6,600 and I love the tier above this one. The 8,000 tier is really good. This specific tier is a bit tougher because there aren't a ton of drivers and top tier equipment and they're not starting as deep in the order. That matters a lot. So of this group, I would say Mack Kenseth probably has the best stuff, but he himself hasn't been all that great since things picked back up and he's starting 20th. So I think that that's, it's a bit of a turnoff for me, I would say and as a result that Christopher Bell is going to be the top of this tier for me. He drew the 36th place starting position, which is the lowest spot he possibly could have grabbed. I was super skeptical of Bell's equipment coming into this year and that was validated in the first four races, but he's been better since the COVID-19 layoff. He had a top 15 average running position in both the Charlotte races. He finished 11th in the second Darlington race. So I don't think Bell will get a top 10 finish year, but if he can finish around 15th after starting 36th at this salary, he will pay off for DFS. So in this tier, Bell is my favorite guy. If you're looking for finishing upside, you can go Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He finished third in Las Vegas thanks to some awesome pit strategy and he was also fourth in the second Charlotte race. The odds that Stenhouse crashes are very, very, very, very, very, very high. So don't get too upset if it happens. It is an accepted risk of using Ricky Stenhouse Jr., but I will still give him a look for sure because of the guys in this tier, he's the one who can conceivably get you a top five finish. So I'm going to use Stenhouse. I'm not happy about it, but I feel like it is pretty necessary given the runs he has had at Las Vegas and Charlotte. The punting tier on Fandle is Cole Custer at $6,400 on down, and Custer is very similar to Christopher Bell, except I feel a bit better about the equipment being good with him than I do with Bell. Custer just hasn't done a ton with that equipment so far this year, but he's starting back in 35th. So again, you do not need a top 10 finish for him to pay off, especially at a $6,400 salary, and Custer outperformed Bell at this track in the Xinnity series. He actually won here in 2017. He was runner up behind Retic in 2018 and 2019. So to me, Cole Custer might be the best play below $8,000, and he's down at $6,400, and I will have a really good amount of him. I know we talked about how punting is not as viable here, but I think with Custer and with Bell, you're getting two good enough drivers who could conceivably get a top 15 and are starting super deep in the pack. So those two guys are drivers I'll be using quite a bit of on Sunday. I do think you can consider John Hunter Nemechek and Ryan Priest down here. Nemechek is starting 18th, which is a bit too high, but he had a really good run in the second Charlotte race. Priest will start 33rd. So for him, it's more about the starting spot than what he is doing himself. But overall, I think that Custer and Bell are the two values I feel best about entering Sunday's race. They're starting deep in the pack, their equipment is good enough, and it's really good for Custer, and the talent is there too. So I think those are the two guys I'll be using most once we get below around $8,000. All right, let's finish up here with picks to win for Sunday's race, one above $10,000 on Fandall and one below it. For the guy above it, I'm gonna go Kevin Harvick. I know it's a cop out to pick the favorite, but he's the favorite for a reason. And again, drivers in his range within my model win a lot. So I want to account for that and make Kevin Harvick my win pick once again for this race. For the driver below $10,000, we didn't talk a lot about him in the tier by tier breakdown in part because he's starting a bit higher in the order, but I'm gonna pick Eric Jones. Eric Jones is 50 to one right now in Fandall Sportsbook, which is kind of bonkers when you consider the fact that he finished third here in this race back in November. He started 16th in that one. So I think that the upside is there, and that's why Avium is being a really good pivot off of William Byron. Jones, tough year so far this year, but good equipment and we've seen him be good on tracks like this in the past. So Eric Jones at 50 to one below $10,000 is my pick for Sunday's race. That is all the time that we have for today. Do want to thank you all for tuning in. And again, a lot of stuff coming up next week as well. We got PGA podcast on Tuesday, NASCAR podcast coming up on Thursday. So make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like what you hear or if it helps you have success in DFS, make sure you leave us a rating and review as well. And these podcasts are going up on the Fandall YouTube page as well. So make sure you are subscribed there also. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer for under the video side of things here today and putting all those clips up on the Fandall YouTube page and the Fandall Twitter account. Thank you, Cal as always and good luck everybody with your DFS lineups for this weekend. It should be a fun one. Got good selections in most of the tiers and should be a fun race too with a hot and slick track. So it'll be fun to watch those drivers slip sliding around all afternoon. We'll talk to you again next week. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.