 This is covering the spread part of the FanDuel podcast network Week seven is looking like a pretty fun one across the NFL if Thursday night is any indication That was a mess, but also a fun mess and a fun mess is still fun We're gonna break down week seven from a prop betting perspective with JJ Zachary And get his read on his favorite prop props to bet this week at FanDuel sports book This is covering the spread right here on the FanDuel podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by JJ Zachary So check him out at late round calm and in late round fantasy football podcast JJ. Happy Friday to you How are you doing today? I'm good had a lot of Joanne Johnson and you know Benjamin going last night So I am I'm feeling good heading into week seven So with the Amazon games the pluses that you can watch like the replay and I went to bed before the end of the games I got to watch the replay this morning I tried to avoid like spoilers and stuff and I like went to bed and my like single-gay liners were like super super dusty Missed the Benjamin touchdown got to see Juwan's two touchdowns. That was fun. Missed the Christian McCaffrey news I didn't see that till this morning as well So it's been a wild morning for me and just a wild game overall despite not having the There isn't a defense the special teams in my like main lineup one up being okay So it was a fun morning to wake up to for sure. Yeah, no Hot takes you want to fire off about the McCaffrey trade or can we leave those for Twitter? No I mean, I think it what my my initial reaction obviously. This is me just kind of off the dome here My my initial reaction was just it seems kind of redundant like like with Debo and you know I'm sure that Kyle Shanahan who is an offensive genius. I mean, he knows what he's doing I'm sure he's gonna properly use CMC But it's just it's just one of those moves where I mean They're loaded from a talent perspective for sure But it's a it's a scheme that we've historically talked about any running back can perform in and now they have arguably the best running back in Football so either he goes nuclear or we're gonna actually see oh you could actually just put a sixth round Elijah Mitchell in there Whoever and and they will produce as why I'm just curious to see sort of I think Debo is the big X-factor for me in terms of usage and how they actually deploy him because obviously He's been all over the field and they have a lot of those pieces now, right? Like they have like CMC can play the slot They have these guys and even use check is pretty versatile And so, you know, they have those pieces, which is why they you know Kyle Shanahan loves this kind of stuff Like this is exactly what he does But it's just gonna be interesting to see how it all plays out You know from a trend standpoint and what's most consistent and where these guys line line up most Yeah, I think I'm pretty I wish the trailance were healthy because this would be fun to watch him in that offense But I think that it's also the fact that they made this trade and unloaded that much draft capital Probably makes it more likely that Lance is the starter next year They have no capital to trade for a quarterback now. So like that's someone with trailance dynasty I was actually kind of like excited from that perspective. I don't know if that's like the Selfish side of me like Right like Christian McCaffrey back there. So, I mean, I thought it was pretty fun. So I'll take it from that perspective It was clearly impactful for prop betting, but as I just think about my trailance dynasty teams Well, we'll talk about props for week seven here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast So week seven full betting preview is up and our college football week eight preview posted as well up on the Covering the spread podcast feed and on the Fandle YouTube page as well NBA season also underway now the perfect time to download Fandle sports book America's number one sports book because right now New customers can get a no sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars That's left to one thousand dollars back and free bets if your first bet doesn't win Fandle has all your favorite bets from the money line to point spreads to player props You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay Plus with live betting you'll get updated odds on games that have already started the Fandle sports book app is safe secure It's super easy to use so download Fandle today and get your no sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars Make every little more this season with Fandle official sports book partner of the NBA must be 21 plus And in select states first online a real money wager only refund issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fandwold.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandwold.com slash RG in Arizona call 100 next step or text an acceptify 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Kansas 1-805-2-4-700 or visit KS gambling help dot com in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text open y and Tennessee called the red line at 1-889-979 in Wyoming 1-805-2-2-4-700 or in West Virginia 1-800 gambler dot net Let's dig into some props here for week number seven and start things off by talking about things from a holistic perspective because scoring has been down this year offense in general is down and Obviously that has a big impact on touchdown props, but also impacts yardage props if you talk a lot about here. So What changes are you making in your process to account for this general down-ticket offense? Yeah, so, you know, I think that it's important to to you know Remember and when you're looking at whether it's some sort of projection system or model What have you a lot of them start at the team level first and a lot of them are taking trends from what's happening Throughout the season already, you know, it's not a big sample by any means it's six weeks But it's still a sample and we're still seeing, you know, this going on You know this season so, you know, and then not only that like my model for instance or my projections I should say they use game lines as a baseline to start things off And so if that's pulling from a book And books are recognizing this then my projections are also going to recognize this to some degree as well I think what really is important with this With this this, you know poor offensive play to start the year You know, we can talk all day about why it's happening But I think what's more important is that, you know, a lot of people are simply browsing player props whenever they're they're making bets And a lot of times when you do that psychologically, you could just see these lines up here to be way too low And so you could just be looking and saying oh, this, you know Seguin Barclay can go over that easily or whatever Without realizing that no, this is actually the norm, you know, this is this is what we're expecting You know from these offenses right now. So I think it's more so that I think it's more so a change in your mentality If you are being a somewhat more subjective about your approach to these props, which is totally fine That's the way that 99% of people are operating with with these with these player props But it's just important to not, you know Always just take these overs because there's a reason the lines are where they are Well, I think it's also interesting that you said you'd take the the betting markets into account because essentially then You're letting people who have a lot of money on the line Dictate where you go, which sounds like a pretty efficient use of your time and trying to problem solve for something like this Yeah, yeah, you know my projections from a team level standpoint, you know That's where I kick things off and start things It's pulling from that because obviously if there's movement or what have you it's a very easy and quick way to get Some sort of team total from a projection standpoint where you don't have to do like crazy crazy work in order to get to that point So yeah, you know if that's accounting for it If that's accounting for these scoring changes then it all falls into place that way Which is you know, no different than what we've talked about in the offseason with the way that I approach My season long projections where I'm looking at a team level first And if there's an injury in the preseason to a quarterback or something like that That impacts the team level projections and then that has this domino effect on the rest of these positions that I'm projecting So it all starts there and if that shifts and that changes then it changes everything else. Yeah work smart or not harder I think that's a key thing you're doing with that Okay, I'll just think key thing for week seven is that we I got some key players potentially coming off injury Jonathan Taylor should be good to go Deandre Swift sounds like he'll be good to go as well not definitive there But I wanted to get your overall process handling players coming off of injury Obviously a lot of factors will influence it But what's your general outlook and how you handle things and trying to project how guys will be used in their first game back? I think overall we're probably as humans playing this game and in watching this game We're probably way too optimistic about guys coming off injury first off You know, I think books generally recognize that to some degree But you know, I I do think that it's a definitely a case-by-case situation where there are some injuries like hamstrings or knees certain knee injuries What have you that where they might play they might seem like that they're healthy But they're not totally totally healthy yet Whereas like something like a ribs injury is a little bit different where they can just like put some You know, even like Taysum Hills been playing with it with a ribs injury and they've been putting that they talked about it last night You know on that telecast where they were saying how you know, he's putting that like numbing stuff On his ribs to help him out and clearly he's been fine You know So I also think that you have to be humble with the way that you approach this stuff and you have to be self-aware that you're not a doctor And so go seek out some help from other Doctors that are out there that study this stuff and that look into these things and can say hey Here's a study showing that you know players coming off of a high ankle sprain Which is a really really rough injury to come off of they generally performs at 70 percent It's just an arbitrary number, but they generally perform at 70 percent of their typical production So things like that can really help as well I do think it's just more of a case-by-case and then the other thing too is watch practice reports Like look at look at how these guys are practicing and how they're trending You know if a guy doesn't practice all week and then he gets a limited practice in on Friday Well, that tells you that he's likely not fully healed He's not feeling that great whereas if it's a player who started getting full practices in on Wednesday Then you can feel a lot more optimistic about that player doing well in that week's game So I think it's a case-by-case thing But there are little things that you can do from a process standpoint to help increase your your projection and in your accuracy with your projection Yeah, the practicing is what I love the most personally like Gabe Davis week before that 98-year touchdown practice and full on Wednesday after Been dealing with an ankle injury seemed like he was healthier there T. Higgins this week last week didn't practice Wednesday at all This week limited Wednesday full practice Friday to me that says he's been playing through an injury But he's getting healthier and I think that that to me is is a good signal to Dictate how did it to decide these things for sure now one situation? We've had a good good amount of success with so far this year as you outlining Situations you're targeting whether it be because of shifts you've seen Whatever it may be which situations are you looking at for week seven to try to attack in the prop market? Yeah, I mean, I think we got to start with the Broncos backfield Because it's it's insane So Latavius Murray saw a lot of their ground game work as we know this past week I think he had like 80% of the teams running back rushes or something like that But he only played six more snaps and Mike Boone. He wasn't on the field That much it was just that when he was on the field He was seeing a lot of work on the ground, which is great of course But that's also something you know We're looking at snaps too because that's a little bit more sustainable When we're looking at sustainability of these players production, but then Nathaniel Hackett comes out He says hey, I talked to Melvin Gordon who was frustrated after that game last week and he's gonna start now But then on top of that they're facing the Jets and the Jets have been in a above average team against running backs this year In terms of success rate in terms of I mean fantasy points, what have you I mean they've been an above average opponent I just think that it's a mess and I think that you could probably lean under if you see a line that You know is somewhat attractive But yeah, I mean this Broncos backfield situation is just not very easy to dissect But it's definitely something to at least keep an eye on This week and I am more pessimistic than optimistic about it Another one is actually in that exact same game the Jets pass catchers because we have Elijah Moore Who is very who's tilting his his role right now. He's not very happy, which it's kind of understandable I mean, he's a he's a very good wide receiver with Elijah Moore and dynasty. I relate. Yeah Yeah, so, you know, he's a very very good wide receiver. You know, he's playing a role where last week we saw Corey Davis End up playing by far the most snaps in that Jets offense a wide receiver Which we hadn't seen all year if anything, you know Elijah Moore had consistently been the top wide receiver in snaps played and then Garrett Wilson was starting to overcome Corey Davis a little bit and then all of a sudden it was Corey Davis that was the guy for the Jets So, you know, there's been a lot of volatility there But now Elijah Moore is upset and there's rumors that he might not even go this weekend against Denver that the Jets will Just bench him because he requested this trade and they're frustrated all that kind of stuff The thing is if that happens, you might see the lines for Davis or Garrett Wilson go up But I hate this matchup like I the matchup is horrible. I mean the the Broncos have been good against wide receivers They're good against a slot too You know, I do think that they would probably end up throwing Braxton Berrios out there a lot to end up playing that role a little bit So I just think the matchup is really bad So if you see Some sort of response in the market up with these wide receivers I do think that I would attack the under still Just because it's just a really rough situation in general from a matchup standpoint and the Jets are playing good on defense They're there they have a very very run heavy script over since Zach Wilson has been quarterback It's not just Zach Wilson. It's game script. That's that's occurring. That's forcing that but I mean this game If Russell Wilson doesn't play we have no idea at the point of this recording But like even if he does plays on a hundred percent and it's not like the Broncos offense has been that great So the Jets could easily keep that game competitive and not have a very pass-heavy script So I'm just I'm just not very bullish on the Jets passing attack, which I don't think is is that much of a hot take And then the last one to monitor is this remandre Stevenson in the New England backfield Damien Harris, you know speaking of watching practice reports Damien Harris has been practicing You know the initial report was that he could be out a lot longer than what he's been out But he's practicing and we have to recognize that remandre Stevenson over the last two weeks has played 90 percent and 85 percent of new england snaps That's actually the two highest snapshires that new england running backs have seen since deon louis in 2015 So they're finally using this dude as a true bell cow, but Damien Harris coming back Definitely definitely hurts that when remandre Stevenson Was playing with Damien Harris after that time on gummary injury in week one He was seeing a snap share in that like 60 range. That's significantly lower than 90 90 85 percent You know, maybe we see a 70 percent snap share from remandre Stevenson this week Just because Damien Harris is coming off that injury But I do think that we have to lower expectations for remandre You just make sure that the market is also setting those expectations. Yeah going back to the Jets too Like it's not just the script. They've also been effective running the football Which means they don't have to throw that much and you can run a bit on denver Like you'd prefer to run against them and throw against them at this point So I think all those things do lend themselves towards being skeptical of the jets even if there's no Elijah more on sunday. Okay, let's take into some yardage props you like here for week seven jj Where are you seeing value right now in the yardage department? So if you look at robert tunyon's number across books, it's around that 32 and a half yardage number I think that you should hit the under there You know, he had his best route participation of the season last week. That's great That translated to a 27 target share, you know, he entered the season with that acl And he's just been slowly working back up to being that full-time tight end and we saw that last week He had a great route participation 27 target share. That's great The problem is this matchup against washington is not that great Washington has has seen a lot more of their targets against Go to the tight or go to the wide receiver position than the tight end position on the year Their second and adjusted target or an adjusted target share allowed to wide receivers Their 27th and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends their 29th and success rate allowed to wide receivers Their fifth to tight end So they've been way way worse against wide receivers this year than tight ends And then the other point to make here about tunyon and hitting the under The packers could lead in this game the packers might not Even throw the ball that much and have like insane volume through the air Whereas they haven't necessarily seen that kind of script You know over the last few weeks where they've been struggling a little bit more You know fandal right now fandal sportsbook has them at a four and a half point favorite You know, this game could get out of hand. That's always a possibility So that's another out for robert tunyon to hit the under here So 32 and a half receiving yards is generally where he's been at and I think hitting the under makes a lot of sense I think that this this number seems like it's kind of an overestimation of the impact of no rental cob Where it's like, okay, there's no cob tunyon's roll expanded last week We expect this progression for him to be linear when in actuality He might have already been expanded last week. And so you might not want to continue projecting more expansion If he's already there. Yeah, exactly. That's that's exactly how I would look at it Um, and then another uh number that you could look at is pj walker, uh, right now He is projected at 151 and a half passing yards. It's across a lot of books. I think dk had it there I'm going to go over actually You know, I know that you hear pj walker and that scares you to to go with an over for anything with pj walker Um, I know this team is in complete disarray walkers coming off that horrific performance last week But carolina ran 44 plays in that game I mean, that that's that's a number that we should not expect from a projection standpoint Week in and week out from any team. That's just an absurdly low number. Um, they're back at home now Uh, they should see a negative game square against tampa bay Which should lead to more passing even though they don't have any weapons to throw to outside of dj more But but get this jim if you look at the 175 quarterbacks this year, this excludes last night I didn't throw that in the sample. Um, but if you look at the 175 quarterbacks with 20 or more pass attempts in a game this year Okay, which I think we can probably project that Safely for pj walker even though it didn't necessarily go that way last week But again, we should project a little bit regression from the plays run standpoint Of the 175 quarterbacks with 20 or more pass attempts 166 of them hit the over so again, it's a bad situation. It's a essentially a third string quarterback I understand all of that, but we're playing the odds here, right? I mean that that's that's what this comes down to and if this was more a neutral game script or You know, if they were able to run the football really really well Or I had confidence in that then maybe I wouldn't feel as good about this bet But I do think that going over that 151 and a half mark makes a lot of sense Well, part of the reason why He wasn't getting a lot of yards last week is that they were like dinking and dunking because they had christian mccafrey They don't have him anymore. So I think the the average depth of throw will have to naturally increase for walker Which could give him more outs to getting over 151 and a half Right now. Okay. Let's open up for touchdown props. What are you seeing there for week seven? We're gonna get crazy this week, man Let's do it. This is this is party. We're just gonna have some fun here. All right I got nico collins anytime touchdown plus three ten you can get that in a lot of books I think this was pulled from dk But you know, obviously this is a long shot. I have two long shots for you just just spoiler alert But but nico Collins is averaging a 19 target share per game over his last four He's seeing a ton of deep ball looks um in this offense over these four games He said 62 receiving yards per game and he has 246 receiving yards over this lot over these last four games without a touchdown The only players in the nfl with more receiving yards than nico collins this year Without a touchdown are both pittsburgh stealers as george pickens and diana johnson And the stealers only have four passing touchdowns and they're six games played Whereas the uh texans are averaging one passing touchdown per game. They have more passing touchdowns on fewer games played Nico collins. I think this could shock people nico collins right now has more receiving yards than brandon cooks But the the lines for these guys are you know, obviously there's a talent discrepancy But the lines in these guys are are drastically different the raiders have been terrible against the passes here They're sixth worst uh in a just uh in a adjusted uh success rate allowed to the wide receiver position So I think nico collins makes a lot of sense as a is a long shot To score a touchdown in this game and then I have an even bigger long shot To to score a touchdown this week. Sony michelle plus 450 any time touchdown joshua kelly is banged up He's been there back up running back at least over the last couple of weeks They sort of solidified that role for him. He's expected to miss a couple of weeks Sony michelle is the next man up behind oston eckler Austin eckler still doesn't have a single goal line rush this year actually Sony michelle leads the chargers in goal line rushes He has two josh kelly has one oston eckler has zero and even when you look within the ten yard line kelly has four rushes uh eckler has five Um, and so if you look at this the combination of what joshua kelly and sony michelle have done together this year It's basically better than oston eckler from a usage standpoint close to the end zone And then on top of that, you know eckler has not been a player This year and in past years even two where he sees like amazing snap shares He's not like a 90 snap share kind of running back He's in that 60 to 70 range which leaves a lot of room for a backup running back like sony michelle to step in And get some work. I'm not expecting double digit touches or anything like that But he could see uh this goal line work. He could see short yardage stuff And then also they're playing seattle seattle's been horrible against the run And running backs this season So I think all of that combined in a game that could see a decent amount of scoring All of that combined I think makes sense for sony michelle at plus 450 Well, I think this is one of those situations where removing one piece matters a lot Because if you have joshua kelly and sony michelle both there they're kind of splitting a weird roll but if it's a 40 snap share going to one guy and the goal line work That's a significant roll and taking kelly out of the equation. He hasn't practiced yet this week Like that is an actual like difference maker for michelle and especially a plus 450 I think that makes a ton of sense given his roll Yeah, look, it's it's long odds. I mean, they're they're both obviously sort of sort of deeper plays Uh, but I think that they both at least both nico collins and sony michelle make a ton of sense Yeah, nico collins plus 310 as jj mentioned and sony michelle is plus 450 that is all that we have here for today And this week on covering the spread again our week 7 a betting preview is up and our week college football week 8 Preview is up as well But jj want to give a big thank you to you once again. Good luck to you with the tonion beds the pj walker bed You have to I guess you could uh go out to the stadium and put on pj walker yourself If you were so inclined, but uh, good luck this week and we'll talk to you again next week Thanks, jim Alrighty check out jj on twitter at late round qb find the late round fantasy football podcast wherever you get your podcast and go to late round com for all of jj's content I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Good luck to all of you with your week 7 and week 8 college football beds. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network