 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Crazy trading day. We'll talk about that in a second. There was no video last night. Usually I take Thursdays off. I usually don't have a Thursday video, but I took last night off. My daughter finally got into one of the schools that she was applying for for high school. So after all the standardized tests and all the, all the meet and greets and all the interviews and all that stuff that goes along by getting into high school, we went out to dinner, had a great time with the family. So I apologize, no video yesterday. But if there was a video yesterday, I would say, well, hell, there's business as usual. The market gets, market gets a dip, market gets bought, the market goes green, right? That's what happened yesterday, the day before, the day before that. And ironically, this is why, you know, the old, the old adage says, well, this is why we play the game. Today was a little bit different, right? So this morning you woke up, you had the PPI that came in, again, way too much data for your own good. But again, there's too much data talk. There's too much Fed Governors talk. We'll get to that in a second as well. But the point is today was a little bit different. We started the day with the PPI, a hot reading basically showed that the January supply rose more than expected, right? Not a really great thing. So they sold off the market, right? And no big deal, right? They sold off the market, not a big deal. Because again, the mantra of 2023 has been, well, the buyers will always step in and they'll buy this dip. And that's exactly what happened. If you look at the 60-minute view, right? If you look at the 60-minute view of the market, this came off the PPI. And just like every other dip since 2023 started, it's gotten bought. And not only did it get bought, at one point we came within about a dollar or so from going green, considering we were down $7 off the bottom of the range. That was super duper bullish, right? So we're like, okay, here we go again. Everything starts going green, slowly but surely. Tesla starts going green. If you guys remember the video from two nights ago, we were looking for that channel to the 215-218 channel. We'll get to that in a second. Big move on Tesla. But the point is eventually, like all things, eventually people when they're jumping off the 25th floor, eventually they're gonna get hurt. And this afternoon you had a couple of different things happening again for the outside of Powell talking of the last couple of days and all these different meetings and stuff. What happened was, well, you had a couple of different things, right? You had Fed Mester, right? Mester started talking and they're like, well, here's the hawkish commenter. I'm basically reading from the comments and says, Fester had hawkish commentary add concerns that the rates might continue to go higher for a longer period of time. That's not a good thing. Remember, because we were talking about only raising 25 basis points. Somebody said, right? One of the many, somebodies that our Fed Governors is talking. Somebody said, well, wait a minute, we might have this inflation thing under control. 25 is good enough. So then the market started selling off a little bit, right? Started giving back some of the rally that it had off the lows. And then Bullard came in like Mariana Rivera in his prime. And the ninth inning with two outs, bases loaded, with a three and two count and just sealed the deal. Heater right down the middle, the bears completely overpowered the bulls towards the afternoon. And the picture that was kind of painted for us a couple of weeks ago on the Fed minutes, right, on the Fed rates, well, then Bullard came around and said, well, now everything is kind of on the table, right? We're not looking at, you know, maybe a 25 basis point. We might be looking at a 50 basis point again. And oh, by the way, this Fester, right, Uncle Fester human being, they might be right. You know, it might extend longer, it might extend to 2024 and beyond. So the markets obviously got jittery. And if you look at literally, right, if you look at literally the last hour of the day, just absolute carnage, incredible carnage. It looked like mass liquidation at one point. And we closed at the lows of the day. And unfortunately, like unlike all other days, right? And if you look at all the red candles that we're putting this year, they had something in common, right? When there was a reversal candle, it took out the next day and went lower. Here was a reversal candle, the next day never took out the previous days lower, continued to higher. And here's another perfect example, right? Here was your first red print, the next day took down the candle and went lower. So here we are. We gave back, because of that sell-off, we gave back the five and the 10-day moving average. Really not that big of a deal, because again, when you start to panic a little bit off of every move from the top, every move from the bottom, you're going to drive yourself up the wall thinking, this is the top, this is the bottom. We're not talking about tops, we're not talking about the bottoms, we're not talking about guessing, we're not talking about what we think is going to happen. We're taking the data based on tonight's close, right? That's it. And again, if you're a brand new trader and you are the first time you are watching this channel, first of all, welcome. If you can be kindly subscribed, right? Subscribe, like, share, notify, all that crap that somebody told me to do to say on social media, because again, I do the social media thing kind of bad. But if you can do all that, we really appreciate it to kind of support the channel. So what we try to do is give a day-to-day, right? Day-to-day, unbiased view of what we think is going to happen. The fact that we put in this inverted hammer. If you guys remember the last time we put this inverted hammer, we had a nice little sell-off again into the five-day. Again, nobody's talking about there's a potential for reversal back to the lows. We need, you know, 15% move on the NASDAQ to kind of get things back to the square. We're just taking it day-by-day, trade-by-trade, right? We were very bullish on the way up. We got a little bit of a couple of days of back-test into the 10-day. We got a nice little reversal, reclaimed the five-day moving average, and that's why the whole point of the five-day moving average being so important. As you see here on February the 13th, we reclaimed the five-day moving average. We confirmed it and we went higher. Today is the first day, right? Today is the first day. We lost the five-day moving average. And that's kind of my point going into tomorrow's session. If we can confirm, right? If we can confirm today's channels on the Qs, then yeah, we could get another day. And maybe, you know, we don't know the severity of aggression for a potential move lower, but if we do confirm, and again, if, right, my aunt had, she'd be my uncle, right? So the word is if. It's if then. It's like, it's like, I think it's called the Pythagorean theorem. We used to have in, was it algebra, geometry? One of those stupid things that we don't use in our lives. I'm just joking. Stay in school, kids. Stay in school. But the point is if the Qs start losing this bottom channel and start taking down the next previous channel, then we have room all the way down to this 299 level. So 303, the 299, does this seem like it's the end of the world? Probably not. Will some of your positions feel it? Probably, right? But the point is if you're a long-term investor, you know, shut off this channel. It's not really for you. This video is not for you. You'll be okay. Five years from now, your stock prices will probably be higher. But if you're an intraday trader and you are participating in intraday ranks, then you know, I think some of this information could be very useful to your approach going into tomorrow's session. So based on all the charts that I saw going into tonight's, you know, into tonight's research, well, it's very, very tough to turn around and go, I love this stock long tomorrow. Maybe the market goes back high, right? I have no idea. None of us have any idea. We could only make educational thoughts behind what we see on the charts. And if you look at all these charts, they'll have one thing in common, right? You have NVIDIA. They got downgraded today, right? Got downgraded today. And to NVIDIA's credit, right? To NVIDIA's credit, it actually held up today for the most part of the day. It actually rallied like six, seven points at one point off the lows. But here's the video closed right on the 10-day. Everybody see that? You see the green line, right? If this 10-day gets confirmed, look how much room you have down. You have Amazon, right? Look at Amazon, right? Amazon is really, really sitting on this support. You see this whole support area right here? If Amazon starts losing the support area, the futures start confirming and the queues start confirming. There's a lot of room down as well, right? There's a lot of charts out there. But the one that everybody's watching, because everybody believes, you know, this thing can crater 20, 25%, which is not crazy to think, right? This thing had, and when I say this thing, you know, I don't want to disrespect the God, right? Tesla, Elon, love you, boy, right? We had a phenomenal run. Absolutely phenomenal run in the stock for the whole, you know, for the whole 2003, hell, seven years even at the prior. But now this is approaching the same kind of setup than the NVIDIA's approaching, right? It's very, very close to losing its 10-day moving average, right? It's putting in an inverted hammer. Last time we put in an inverted hammer, right? It was on February the 9th, right? Put in an inverted hammer. What happened? The next three days, the stock has gone from 214 to 187. Is it possible it starts, you know, getting aggressive again? That's the whole point. We don't know if it will, but don't we have to be prepared for it? And that's all we try to do as traders. We just try to be prepared for every type of scenario. So, yeah, of course I'm watching it. You know, of course I'm watching Tesla tomorrow. Okay, I don't care which side we trade as long as the channel that confirms technically. So there's an inverted hammer here, and it went down with two straight days. Well, there's an inverted hammer here. Well, let's see what happens, right? To be determined. Again, always be prepared. You might be wrong, right? I don't care. Look, we could be having this conversation on the weekend video. My God, I was 1,000% sell bias. And the next thing we know, we rallied 300 points. Okay, you're going to be wrong. Who cares, right? Who cares? It's not about shares. It's not about likes, although somebody told me to make sure you guys share, like, and smash that like button, bro. Right? I don't know what that means, but smash that like button, bro. But the point is you're allowed to be wrong, okay? As long as your theory confirms, then you're more than willing and wanting to take a swing at it. If your theory and your objective and your research is not confirmed, then you don't. So if we rally tomorrow, again, what's the worst thing that happens? We buy stocks? Scary. Right? That's the whole point. Have a theory. Have a plan. Have a course of action. If that theory plan confirms, then you should be clicking that mouse with extreme prejudice. If not, you look for the other side of the channels, the other side of the aisle to take advantage of. But going into tomorrow, I am definitely at least initially self-biased. I will give the bulls, excuse me, I will give the bears about an hour or so to kind of confirm what I'm thinking is going to happen. So if there's any possible way the Mark of God's can give us a slight gap open tomorrow to the upside would be wonderful because ideally what would happen is if we gap up, right, if we gap up, we get stuffed into supply, they go green to red and confirm today's channels, I think then the floodgates potentially can move up. I wouldn't, I don't want to really see a big gap down open because the last thing I want to see is like Tesla down 10. It's going to destroy the whole trade. You know what I mean? I don't want to see the video down 10. Like I don't want to, like my first area on the sell side, I don't want to be shorting Tesla down 17 points opening range highs. There's no value there. So hopefully if we do have a down open, hopefully it's a small one, but the perfect world, I would love to see a little bit of a baby gap up open tomorrow, get stuffed into supply, roll over and start taking out today's channel. So that's it, right? That's it. So, you know, look, the market is or is been incredibly strong in 2013, extremely resilient, rational to a lot of new traders. But again, irrationality is actually rational. If you've been, if you've been trading for a long time, and the key is not to look at the market from the point of common sense. It'll never make sense to you. It's never made sense to me. I've gone on my 24th year. It's never made sense. There's never been a day that I turn around and go, oh, logically obvious, right? Ever hear somebody say on social media, that was such an obvious trade. Well, I haven't had an obvious trade in 24 years. Maybe you show me one day what that is like. But all jokes aside, I think if you are prepared, especially day to day, if you understand the dynamics of where the market is, how far the market's gone, and any potential rug pull is imminent, then you will understand that having overnight exposure, max-gill to the, you know, to the nines is probably not the smartest thing in the world, especially after, you know, after a 15, 16, 70% run-up already in the first five weeks of the NASDAQ 100. So going into tomorrow, you kind of, I kind of share my thoughts. Let's see how the market gods play out, right? The last thing you want to do is start shorting into the hole, especially at the open. That's usually when you get 99%, 95% you squeeze back before the market kind of resets itself. Let the market play out tomorrow for the first, you know, 10, 15 minutes. Let everything, you know, establish opening range lows. If the market is going to have another day of washing, right? Don't they have to confirm that opening range candle, right? So we don't have to rush. That's the whole point. We don't have to rush. We don't have to anticipate. We don't have to hurry. We have our game plan and let's see it confirmed. Guys, have a great night, everybody. Stay blessed. And I will see you all tomorrow. Take care, everybody.