 So the new president is going to face significant challenges from acting on the conflict in Syria where Russia is flexing its muscles To deciding how best to respond to China's assertion of a gammony in the end of Pacific region I think there's also a big challenge of perception coming for the new president by which I mean perception of the role and standing of the United States in international affairs There's an ongoing debate Mostly within the US but also outside and whether or not the United States is in decline in global terms Those who argue that it is note that the US economy has become less competitive There's a shift in economic growth toward the developing world. There's what we've come to call the rise of the rest That the US carries too much debt It's on the edge of bankruptcy and at the unipolar moment of unchallengeable American supremacy has passed It's opportunity squandered by ill-judged wars That's the negative side on the other hand. There are those who say no America's not in decline They emphasize the predominance of American military par certainly unmatched They warned against the impact of withdrawal from its leadership roles They argue that the US leads the world in education technology and innovation and it has geographic and demographic advantages that will help it remain dominant Ideological partisanship is very discernible in these debates on the right President Obama is regularly presented as a synonym for America's demise and its lack of leadership on the left There's a common perception the US has acted with imperial hubris in international affairs most evidently with the Bush administration's inauguration of a war on terror a phrase you may have noticed that the Obama administration does not use his administration's been instructed not to use it However, most of the rest of us continue to and an ongoing concern that the misuse of American power is somehow spawning violent global counter movements This discourse of international decline or malaise is not wholly the prerogative of Washington insiders and journalists It's also represented by the many polls that seek Americans opinions on the nations and America must have the most polled people on earth I mean Everyone gets pulled several times a day They seek Americans opinions on the nation's global role in it standing in recent years There have been many indicators of public doubts about the exceptionalism of the United States in 2014 for example a Pew poll Show that 28% of Americans believe quote the United States stands above all other countries in the world That's down from 10% from a few years previously in the same year only 15% of 18 to 29 year olds expressed that belief Such views are synonymous with a wariness about global leadership and engagement in a Pew research poll this year and how Americans view the US role in the world 57% say quote the United States should deal with its own problems Now some ways that's not surprising Historically the United States has moved between periods of engagement and isolationism It's currently in a pair a period of isolationism Mainly because the Obama administration pulled back from the adventurism that had been shown by George W. Bush One of the presidential candidates Donald Trump has been tapping into this isolationist mood in the United States His slogan I'm sure you know it to make America great again. It feeds off the anxiety about America's future and its role in the world Americans are uncertain and worried and their views in foreign affairs are contributing to the roiling of the presidential election So we have two very different candidates Vying for the presidency with very different views on foreign affairs and America's role in the world So what I would like to do is offer a few observations on What I think are the key differences between these candidates and a few comments on how they might respond to certain foreign policy issues if they do become president of the US Hillary Clinton is a Washington insider and part of the foreign policy establishment If she takes over from President Obama that should be a fairly smooth process providing continuity Though there are signs that she will move away from his policy of what's sometimes called strategic patience She is certainly more hawkish than president Clinton When she stepped down a secretary of state China's leading daily state run daily newspaper the Global Times State at this quote for the Chinese people the hard line of former US Secretary of State has been unforgettable Hillary Clinton were statements like that as a badge of pride a Secretary of State she advocated the use of what she termed smart power She says she really had thought through how she wanted to Perform this role of Secretary of State. She was very conscious that the United States Was in a a new geopolitical relationship to other parts of the world where it's it's par had to be used Dispensed in a new way and in a careful way And so she she thought through this idea of smart par and she defined it as follows It's choosing the right combination of tools the diplomatic the economic the military the political the legal and the cultural for each Situation and she would give the invasion of Libyan 2011 or the nuclear deal with Iran as good examples of this this this The smart part work She advocates in other words the use of all the tools of American apar and especially diplomacy and development the combination between the Two is quite distinctive when she was Secretary of State, and I'll see I think we'll see her Pushing those ideas again if she is president she strongly argued for the elevation of Development in advancing national security the idea being to use to solve problems abroad before they reach the American shore She Is a strong supporter of NATO arguing that it serves American interest by creating a large block of opposition to Russian expansion And she says that NATO allies have rallied to the United States in its times of need and cannot be deserted now She was referring especially to 9-11 She has consistently advocated making women's human rights a priority in international relations And this certainly does place her part within American statecraft in 1995 in Beijing when she was first lady. She famously said quote women's rights are human rights a Secretary of State she took a strong interest in promoting counterterrorism initiatives From her role in the State Department including the global counterterrorism forum Which would allow security professionals to come together from around the world to share knowledge and best practice Hillary Clinton supports drone strikes in instances where as she puts it suspected terrorists cannot be captured or brought to justice And she sees this as quote as part of a larger smart par terrorism strategy She has advocated the closure of Guantanamo Bay detention center in Cuba It represents she says in the eyes of the world abuse secrecy and contempt for the rule of law Rather than keeping us more secure Guantanamo is harming our national security So those are broadly some of the perspectives and opinions that Hillary Clinton holds and has held a secretary of state And gives us some clues as to how she might act in the future In sharp contrast to Clinton Donald Trump unnerves the foreign policy establishment in Washington This summer 50 Republican foreign policy experts signed a letter denouncing Donald Trump saying he was unfit to be commander-in-chief he Presents a kind of wild card uncertainty to the establishment his mantra is quote everything is negotiable a View that promises to imperil nuanced diplomacy and alliances that the US has spent some time Building around the world Under a Trump presidency it seems that treaty obligations are going to be subject to renegotiation He's dismissive of America's investment in the European integration project since World War two and Generally dismissive of matters of transatlantic security He's not likely to support the transatlantic trade treaty Tax conflicts with Europe are possible Essentially as a number of commentators have pointed out Trump sees foreign affairs as a business deal And actually he's fairly consistent views on that. That's not new in 1990 given interview admittedly in Playboy magazine Where he said and I quote We Americans are laughed at around the world for losing a hundred and fifty billion dollars every year after year for defending wealthy nations for nothing Nations that would be wiped off the face of the earth in about 15 minutes But weren't for us our allies are making billions by screwing us and quote and more recently He's used phrases like free writers to describe these allies Trump says that he would consider withdrawing US forces from South Korea and from Japan if they didn't increase what he calls their financial contribution He wants NATO to pay more as well He's also said that NATO has become obsolete by which he means that it is not fit for purpose to fight terrorism He's issued a number of statements quite reckless in my view on nuclear weapons and in the rules of war He is opposed to efforts to close Guantanamo indeed. He says he would like to increase the number of detainees there on Interrogation torture if you prefer that term he says on harsh interrogation techniques I should say quote if the use of these methods would enhance the protection and safety of the nation They should be used their effectiveness may be in dispute, but nothing should be taken off the table when American lives are at stake He generally supports us counterterrorism practices including government surveillance on NASA's program to collect bulk data He says it's certainly something not something. I like but when you have all these maniacs over the world We have to do something in taking that little bit of an extra step and quote and finally in terms of the general observations Of his foreign policy perspective. He has not advocated making women's human rights a priority in international relations So just a few of the hotspots that are presently pretty hot and that the new president is going to have to attend to In no particular order. Russia is what I've scribbled first here Both Well, let me start with Mrs. Clinton Mrs. Clinton president Russian president Vladimir Putin are not close friends During the 2008 presidential election Clinton said of Putin and he quote. He's a KGB agent By definition. He doesn't have a soul and quote Mr. Putin responded by saying quote. I think at a minimum. It's important for a government leader to have a brain and quote This is not a high level of political discourse or diplomatic Could give and take there's not much humor involved In 2009 though Clinton did try to she put it reset the US relation with Russia In fact, she posed in one of the worst of the photo ops She did as a secretary of state beside Vladimir Putin with a huge bright red button that said reset In case people didn't get the idea. It's not a bit embarrassing And the idea was to seek greater corrupt cooperation without a doubt now her critics on the conservative side have said that this was Naive and it emboldened Putin perhaps but Clinton has pointed to what she thinks have been successes of of that effort to ameliorate Particularly the sanctions in Iran and also Russia joining the WTO the World Trade Organization at any rate by the end of her tenure She did write to President Obama in a memo that leader was became public warning that The reset was at an end and that relations with Russia were deteriorating quite badly Clinton argues that the US should respond to Putin's imperial tendencies by strengthening NATO But also by improving energy security for those European countries who are too dependent on Russian natural gas She's also called for stronger efforts and measures to punish Russia for its transgressions in both the Ukraine and she sees it in Syria Relations have become very chilly between Russia and Well, Mrs. Clinton during the US presidential elections as there is evidence that Russia has hacked the Democratic National Committee's network and leaked emails in order to influence the election Mr. Trump on Russia he has spoke about creating a new alliance with Russia I argue that this can be done and it is done. Then it becomes a fresh way of resetting international affairs and dealing with Syria and other places in order to write IS Islamic State Putin has said some very positive things about mr. Trump and in turn, mr. Trump has praised Putin's brand of leadership I quote I will tell you in terms of leadership He's getting an a and our president is not doing so well and quote if you know Donald Trump's discourse he likes to give out numbers and letters in terms of ability and performance to various people In terms of the hacking or the alleged hacking of the DNC's network Trump has refused to condemn Russia for this and he's argued that He's argued away the claims From the Democrats and the Democratic Party that Russia is deliberately trying to undermine Clinton's candidacy Even though he's been advised by a range of Intelligence experts that that is the case. He refuses to accept that point. So next China Mrs. Clinton has argued for increased cooperation with China in quite a number of areas of common interest She says that our country share code a positive cooperative and comprehensive relationship And she was a leading US official back in 2009 Launching an annual meeting between US and China that focused on economic and strategic issues At the same time She has also been a consistent and constant critic of China's human rights record and has also spoken out about matters of what she terms internet freedom Criticizing China for have quote stepped up their interest their censorship of the internet Mr. Trump has a track China for from his opening speech as a candidate the very first speech claiming it dumped as exports And it's devaluing its currency in its own interest Mr. Trump says that he would be he would threaten the Chinese government with tariffs if it should not agree to change established trade agreements Quote if they don't come to the table They're going to have a tax when they put their product into this country and they're going to behave and quote he also says he would build up a United States military presence in the South China Sea with the view to both deterring China's Naked territorial claims to the the islands there, but also support the US bargaining with China on economic matters immigration Mrs. Clinton has called for a comprehensive immigration legislation Now this would include a path to full citizenship for those who are in the United States illegally Calculated at more than 11 million on documented. We think there might be about 50,000 Irish amongst those, but the figures are not entirely accurate Mostly Hispanic, which I'm sure you know She supports executive action under the Obama administration that seeks to protect Millions of people from deportation Including people who were brought to the United States as children Birthright issue Mr. Trump has made immigration a core issue of his presidential campaign as I'm sure you know Grabbing headlines with controversial declarations. He has claimed that Mexico was sending violent criminals including rapists into the United States He's pledged as I'm sure you know as well to build a 1,000 mile wall That will be paid for by Mexico and that that will somehow secure the southern border of the United States He wants to triple the number of immigration officers And he's also proposed deporting the nearly 11 million Undocumented immigrants believed to be currently living in the United States. He wants to end birthright citizenship Unlike press on like Mrs. Clinton He's also called for this is interesting. I thought I only came across it recently He's called for requirement by visa applicants to obtain and quote ideological Certification that ensures we admit to our country only those who share our values and love our people Now whether he stands by any of these things is absolutely unclear, but these are things that he has said Also, this is not his his his comments on immigrants are an immigration are not fully Directed toward Mexico and to South Latin America In December of 2015 after the tax in San Bernardino in California. He proposed temporarily banning all Muslims from entering the country Later in June of this year. He said quote I would suspend immigration from areas of the world where there's a proven history of terrorism against the US You're or our allies and quote He's also talked about her just in the screening process, but it's it's really unclear, honey if that would work Just a couple more comments then on Iran I think important to to comment on a secretary of state Mrs. Clinton was part of The increase in sanctions against Iran very stringent sanctions during the early years of the Obama administration and Many commentators say this definitely helped bring Iran to negotiate a new nuclear deal More recently she has struck a somewhat tougher stance than President Obama on Iran She has said that while she supports the nuclear deal quote my approach will be distrust and verify We should anticipate that Iran will test the next president They'll want to see if they can bend the rules that won't work if I'm in the White House and quote She has said that in her view Iran continues to violate UN Security Council resolutions through the testing of missiles and She is prepared to have new sanctions placed against the country unless Unless something has done about this Mr. Trump has described Iran as quote the biggest sponsor of terrorism around the world and says that he will dismantle that network of terrorism, but he has offered no detail on how he would do that He has repeatedly criticized the nuclear agreement saying at first that it would have to be completely overhauled But more recently inconsistently saying he would get rid of it entirely He says the US has received few concessions while Iran was given access to quote a hundred and fifty billion dollars that had been frozen He said I'll dismantle the deal But he has no precise plan on how you'd actually do that And Finally moving to our conclusions Islamic State and Syria, which I somewhat put together here for early obvious reasons In 2012 Mrs. Clinton supported arming and training what she termed moderate or vetted Syrian rebels And she has since said that President Obama waited too long to do this and that this contributed to the rise of IS and other militant groups again that more hawkish discourse that we hear a lot from Mrs. Clinton She's also said that Kurdish forces should play a bigger role in combating IS And is certainly interested in expanding US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria in order to defeat the terror networks in 2015 She asked that government agencies US government agencies start to work with technology companies in the United States to Underline and combat the online presence of extremist groups in particular She was targeting Islamic State's ability to use social media to proselytize and recruit and train Those it was outreaching to She's also said that the United States should play a bigger role in helping resolve the crisis caused by migrants fleeing Syria in 2015 she said that she but the US should accept up to 65,000 Syrian refugees Obama had only proposed 10,000 The biggest difference between Mrs. Clinton and President Obama in this area is her readiness to create a no-fly zone over Syria This could put the US or probably would put the US in direct conflict with Russia At the third presidential debate she said and I quote I'm going to continue to push for a no-fly zone and safe havens within Syria Not only to protect the Syrians and prevent the constant outflow of refugees But to frankly gain some leverage on both the Syrian government and the Russians so that perhaps we can have the kind of Syria's Negotiation necessary to bring the conflict to an end quote Mr. Trump has said that he won't give a fully detailed plan to defeat Islamic State because then there would be no surprise However, he says we will quote bomb the shit out of the group's oil operations and quote Sorry, his language is colorful, but I think you know that He said he would be willing no more than that would be willing to put American troops on the ground in Syria He said my generals tell me whoever they are up to 20 or 30,000 American troops would be needed And to deal with terrorists. He's proposed changing international rules On military use of torture He also proposed killing family members Of terrorists in order to create a deterrent to others. He's somewhat backed away from those comments in the last year He like Mrs. Clinton has said he would restrict Islamic State's ability to use the internet. He's got a rather odd phrasing for that. He says we've got to take back the internet Again, it's not quite sure how he's going to take it back He has an interesting point to make when he argues and he has done so consistently that the Gulf states need to do more to fight Is and also to help with refugees But a key part of his Syria strategy appears to be giving Russia The room to stabilize and to do what pretty much it wants in the region at least currently On the current efforts to take the city of Mosul from Islamic State. He refers to as a mistake He said there was no element of surprise So it's it's a mistake, but he also says it's an effort by Obama to boost Clinton's candidacy to make her look good while this time falls Only yesterday he said that the US should focus on defeating IS rather than moving removing Assad in Syria Quote you're going to end up in World War three over Syria if we listen to Hillary Clinton You're not fighting Syria anymore. You're fighting Syria Russia and Iran and quote Now that view whilst apocalyptic in his discourse is not without echo amongst military leaders in the United States interestingly enough At a congressional hearing Last month the chair of the Joint Chiefs Marine General Joseph Dunford told the lawmakers at present quote And no fly as owns in Syria could spell war with Russia right now senator the senator who was questioning him for us to control All of the airspace in Syria. It would require us to go to war against Syria and Russia and quote Now this is an issue where I think there'll be a lot of immediate pressure and attention should Mrs. Clinton be elected president So just a couple of conclusions at this time. Yeah, I Think mrs. Clinton has a tricky line to walk Signaling on the one hand her more hawkish approach to foreign policy than president Obama Yet still supporting an engaged foreign policy based on diplomacy and development and to where that the American public are both weary and wary of foreign interventions Clinton I think will probably turn to formal officials For her foreign affairs team and expertise We can't be sure who those will be but at the moment It looks quite possible that Jake Sullivan who has served as her head of policy at the State Department's currently her campaign policy director Would be the new national security advisor John Podesta who's currently campaign chair Possibly the new Secretary of State Podesta played a key role in helping arrange the climate accord between President Obama and President Xi of China With Donald Trump, it's a hard guess When he listed his foreign policy lineup in March first of all and it's been rejigged several times since one Leading Republican foreign policy experts said this is a pudding without a theme. I'm not sure what that means But it wasn't nice And and as I said 50 of Republican foreign policy experts wrote a public letter To say that Donald Trump was not fit to be commander-in-chief So in order to get a foreign policy team He had to sort of somewhat beat the bushes and it's not an elite team It has to be said there are some very good minds on there, but they're not necessarily an elite team at the moment his key military advisor is retired general Michael Flynn Who was a former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency and has now been slated as potentially the new Secretary of Defense If Donald Trump becomes president The other slatings that are been put out to to be gossiped about on the internet on the media are Rudy Giuliani New Department of Homeland Security head quite possibly A Secretary of State is interesting maybe John Bolton who was the former UN ambassador He's favored by some or Bob Corker who's the Republican chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee But I stopped there because people like to play games with all these names and who knows where we're going to end up It's gonna be interesting