 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien Good Thursday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien company alive from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and you have markets in negative territory to kick things off right now S&P's just under 4300 were negative by 14 points trading at 4283 right now You're off by about a third of percent Nasdaq 100 you're off by three tenths percent quite a charge higher in the markets yesterday Nasdaq 100 you're talking about 350 points from the low pre-market to where we end of the session We're just off those levels are 41 points about a quarter percent the Nasdaq 100 on the red the Dow often even hundred points That's about three tenths percent in the negative at 33,000 226 in the Russell off by seven this morning crude Talk about a pullback man from $95 to $82 in the span of less than a week basically one week on the dot 95 to 82 we're just above that level is still off $1.21 and crude right now gold contract Continuing to decline as well as gold off about $6 this morning. We jumped in notes and bonds a little bit over reversal of the trend Yesterday we're holding on to those levels right now. You got the tenure up two ticks right now You're talking about a ten-year yield 4.74% 4.74 We were above 4.8. We have 4.84 4.83 something like that yesterday on the tenure right now 4.74 basically flat on the tenure right now. We jump over to the dollar index Dollar index pulls back as we get a little bit of a slight reprieving yields dollar index just below 107 10671 right now in that dollar index we jump around to some of the other currencies as well dollar yen right quite the pullback on Tuesday shopping around right near that 149 area and Boy, that has been quite a trend the pullback from about a year ago 152 we almost make it to that price level. We trade all the way back down to below 130 and just like that We're testing those highs yet again Maybe that's the rollover though this week with potentially a little bit of central bank action over in Japan We're above 150 and just like that. We're below 149, but that playing into the dollar index as well We jump over to the euro And the euro sitting at about 105 20. All right, we jump to The appetizer of economic news ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payroll number jobless claims this morning nowhere near as important as The non-farm payroll numbers that come tomorrow at 830, but nonetheless 207,000 was the unemployment for excuse me applications for unemployment US initial jobless claims 207,000 last week the market was looking for 210 So pretty much in line a slight uptick from where we were the prior week you take a look at this chart initial jobless claims What were we at? Maybe 200 201 202 something like that were 207. I mean you're talking about marginal marginal differences Continuing claims basically sitting where they were last week at almost 1.7 million for continuing claims on the jobless front That number out this morning, but guess what the market's gonna be waiting. It's gonna be waiting for Non-farm payrolls and we caught quite a little bid yesterday on a weaker ADP number than the market was looking for We'll see if that carries through today to say the least All right, what do we got pulled up here? We got a couple ones. How about this ozempic though a couple articles out here? I found it interesting right you got this one out yesterday And I was reading it this morning because it was almost at the close yesterday Two writers. I've actually met Shelly Banjo. She was friends with one of my friends in college Afterwards in New York worked for Bloomberg in New York. I think she runs there. Maybe their New York Bureau at this point She was overseas at one point. Nonetheless, didn't even see she wrote it until this moment ozempic one of the writers with Brendan case Making people buy less at Walmart. So look how data is so important number one, right? Walmart saying it's already seeing an impact on shopping demand from people taking the diabetes drug We go be and other appetite-suppressing medications They're studying the changes in sales patterns using Anonymous data on shopper populations It's gonna look at purchasing changes among people taking the drug and all can also compare those habits to similar people who aren't taking The shots you talk about data. I mean People might not I mean they make it a point to say it's anonymous, right? But you're reading that and being like man, so they're gonna be studying the medication I'm taking and my buyer tendencies think about that That's actually what this article saying. They're gonna be tying together the Walmart pharmacy. They know what drugs you're on and They're looking at your buying patterns Maybe you maybe you go on a steroid pack and you're gonna be a little extra hungry and they put a sale in front of you for something Right? Think about that. That's where it is man So yeah, they're seeing a pullback in terms of Less units slightly less categories and a slight pullback in the overall basket. It's interesting nonetheless So that story out there yesterday, okay? Walmart's been on a tear recently and Then you jump to a story Basically last night from the journal, right? They this thing is everywhere. America's food giants confront the ozampic era nearly 7% of the population is Projected to be on weight loss drugs in the next 12 years. Well, who knows we're gonna be in 12 years I hope not but you know where we are not too surprising People want the ability to take a drug to solve everything and I don't know if that's gonna be the case in this one, man We will find out and then hopefully because when you reach a level you need some assistance or you need some health But the bottom line is I I it's very tough to imagine a drug That somehow solves the problem that makes you eat less or burn more calories and somehow is not Interfering in some way because really there's nothing anyway We'll go from there But execs at food manufacturers Campbell's to Kanagra said they're fielding questions from investors about the potential impact his internal team Starts to assess consumer behavior and brainstorm ways to Respond pretty interesting You got two articles out here from Bloomberg and from the Wall Street Journal talking about user user tendencies on weight loss Drugs and how it's gonna impact some of the biggest retailers out there Walmart Campbell's Kanagra Those people could cut their daily calorie consumption by as much as 30% That's 300 patients For a person on a 2,000 calorie diet that can mean eliminating a one ounce bag of salted potato chips a bottle of soda And more each day now. Here's what I'd say People who are probably on those drugs probably consuming more than 2,000 calories Maybe I'm wrong. I don't know But That's probably a number that you are above. So if you're above 200 2,000 let's say you're actually 2,500 Which for a man many times is actually just enough calories to maintain a reasonable weight So if you're on weight loss drugs and you're a man and you're at 2,500 calories depending your size You're probably gonna be losing weight in most situations. So you're probably even above that Let's say you're 2,500. That's 750 calories. You'd be dropping 750 calories on a daily basis That's a lot of food from these companies, man You got one person in here a woman said she's eating significantly less since she started taking Eli Lilly's Manjaro, I can't keep track with how many of these drugs are on the market right now Family orders from restaurants less often and their grocery bills have dropped by as much as 20% Yeah, so you can go down the line Hershey's Mondi Lee's hostess nonetheless pretty interesting it is hitting a Inflection point as articles popping up everywhere Walmart's talking about it retailers is talking about it. So pay attention to that But you know to be on my soap box my soap box and I could eat a little better and definitely get a little bit better exercise and eat a little bit healthier And snack less and don't think there's a holy grail pill to solve Eating healthy stuff and getting movement. So keep that in mind as well. Go take a walk And and we'll be back in three minutes folks. Stay tuned If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report as a newsletter You should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and Technicles sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of TFNN comm TFNN educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at TFNN comm When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today TFNN comm educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing it number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge With anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering Probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market Newsletter mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours The Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com Back folks we get the S&P futures negative by 12 points right now trading at 42.85 to talk about some of the market action Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks from the program the fast market right here at 12 noon eastern time every day from the Schwab network Kevin let's jump right into it man. We got jobless claims this morning the ADP number yesterday non-farm payrolls tomorrow What do you think about this market action? Good morning, Kevin. I'm going through. I'm going to market. Two or three have been pretty I think I lost them medium company for hiring still and then jobless claims today 207,000 That's a historically strong labor market now three weeks in a row Tommy hovering over a thousand jobs all this is the setup for tomorrow's big number Tommy and Well, you know, we'll see what happens I thought really was interesting this morning was the dramatic move in the dollar and in yields when that jobless claims data came out now They're eating back here. You've got yields actually back higher on the day Or yeah, the yield. Oh It's on the day you've got the dollar back down on the day of men dramatic move and then of course There's the crude oil discussion. That's been in pretty incredible last couple days You beat me to the question man on on crude you talk about I just pull it up I had a ten minute chart going back ten days, but basically it's five days ago, man Last Wednesday night Thursday morning. We had $95 on crude. We're at 83 bucks on crude What do you think about that should people wait to fill up the tank right now? Kevin? What do you think about that pullback in crude to 83 bucks from 95? There's clearly best sentiment change include all Tommy and if you think about it was interesting yesterday's largest sell-off of the year came from News in the morning that old peck plus was holding Their production levels as is that seems pretty bullish Then you got a 2.2 decrease in crude all inventories that seems pretty bullish So what what's going on here in crude all well, you got to dig a little deeper There was a six and a half million Barrel increase in gasoline Inventories and the demand levels there's a report that demand for crude all is collapsing And that's what fueled this sell-off in crude all they're worried about the demand side The ledger include and how you get dramatic sell-offs, you know supply has been pretty consistent, right? US is upping theirs, but overall OPEC plus is going to remain around nine million barrels a day US is almost 13 Million barrels a day Tommy. So that's a pretty significant change here But it's the demand side that that's affecting crude prices right now and crude down another one one in a quarter percent today Yeah, that is quite a pullback man. I appreciate the take and those are some interesting numbers as you put in that context gas, of course I'm looking at that chart myself. I'm saying alright. I have enough gas to go a couple days I'm gonna let those gas pumps catch up with this price of crude quite the pullback With that in mind Kevin, we go forward to tomorrow. We have the ADP number yesterday some weak numbers there We know they can be wildly different sometimes Are you looking for action either way in terms of a big number a soft number tomorrow? You're just gonna look for the data. Do you have any feelings on that one? Yeah, sure some of the expectations are from between a hundred and sixty hundred and sixty eight Jobs some of the whisper numbers are closer to 180. So watch for a stronger number there But unemployment expecting to come from three point eight to three seven But the real interesting part of this time is gonna be wages Wages that were point two a month ago expecting to take up to point three a month over month basis and hold at percent year over year and of the labor market Reunion in the country between renegotiating every time one of those gets done it's higher wages and it's picked your inflation Tommy Yeah, those wages man for sure ADP had the wage numbers out there still pretty lofty numbers in terms of staying in the same job Changing jobs. I think it was at 9% you change your job still pretty big numbers well off the highs we had But on an overall basis some big numbers on a yearly basis wages going up on ADP We get the numbers tomorrow with that in mind Kevin. Do you guys have any equities you're talking about on fast market coming up at 12 today? Yeah, today. We're gonna have some fun as we get ready early Tommy and we're gonna look at all airlines Like folios can do a presentation on airlines. We're gonna take trade United Airlines We're going to trade Delta Airlines and we're gonna trade American Airlines So we're gonna preview the earnings that are coming out in about two weeks on some of the airlines that Delta next week So yeah kind of a pre earning show on airlines. I like it man I'm gonna check it out 12 o'clock today and that's one sector of this economy that's that's been on fire I of course was just traveling overseas I might be trying to make a trip up to Boston in the coming Months to bring Tommy up there as well and I know I'm not the only one traveling out there So we look forward to the program Kevin. I appreciate the time as always. We don't talk to you tomorrow We get some big numbers man I look forward to talking to you next week seeing where this market is have a great one Kevin We'll be watching at 12 today, man So have me on Tommy have a great day and a great weekend you too Kevin folks check it out the airlines, right? And yeah, they're coming up there early in the earnings season as we kick things off in a week or two Kevin mentioned Delta their next week then we get the other airlines in the following weeks We get banks in the beginning of earnings as well And it is that is the sector that's been on fire, man I mean, I just had a trip over to Europe now. That's for a wedding one of my best friends out there But everyone's been traveling and the airlines have been facing some lofty prices in crude when you look at that But that may be abating a bit as well. All right, we got a call. We got our man Charlie from Framingham Charlie. Good morning We got you can you hear me Well, isn't that the question man, it's a great call and question Charlie because boy this thing you talk about a pullback, right? We're trading at $79 right now Put this thing on a five-year weekly you pull it back to the COVID lows on my chart Kobe low is $79.07 going into 2020 with 30 pennies away from that You actually got under that level yesterday So Charlie are you looking to trade this are you looking to invest it on a longer term basis? What are you looking to do with it? You know on a longer term Investment right what I would do it is I would scale into this equity and by that I mean, you know, let's say you have $5,000 you want to put into Disney, okay? You can take you can take you know 1500 of it put it in now 1500 put it in in a few months 1500 put it in six months after that if you'd like and over the next year put that money into this because You know you're back to prices in Disney that you were trading at in ten years ago almost in 2014 So the market sitting at 4,300 right now Charlie, you know And I think you might get some negative action and face some headwinds and if that happens Disney's gonna trade lower with the market But over, you know a period of Years yeah, I think $80 right now starting a position just risk-reward wise on a long-term basis is not a bad deal man Okay, thank you Okay, I appreciate the call man. Hope everything's going well and framing him Bye Yeah, I mean we were in this thing in the newsletter made a bunch lost a bunch before we got out Didn't make as much was we could have because man that was a violent pullback from 203 We're trading at $79, but you are back to prices that you were trading at almost 10 years ago in Disney And some of the lineup that they have in terms of big movies coming out They got a couple Star Wars movies coming out maybe 2026 you go a year a couple years out on Disney man They're gonna get some Be back for the open folks. 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That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV Welcome back folks. We got markets open. You got the S&P negative by about six points right now That's just more than one tenth percent the red Aztec 100 you're off by 10 points Let's jump around to see how some of those magnificent Magnificent seven are trading apple catches a little bit of a lift into positive territory on a negative market day apple up 27 pennies or almost two tenths percent to 173 91 we jump over to Microsoft shares Microsoft flat right now You jump over to Amazon Amazon down about four tenths percent right now in the video We check in on up about two tenths percent Tesla shares down about six tenths percent Let's see how some of the car companies are trading for it. It's a little longer term Yeah, coming back to test those lows Right 1172 1158 is the lower at 1198. You got all the way up to a high of 1291 on Ford. We jump over to GM 31 we were just at 34 look at that It's like a 10% hit from where we were September 15th let alone the high we had back on $41 July 12th As that one is persisting markets claw back some of those losses a bit jumping back to Disney if Charlie's still listening hopefully is Getting a little bit of because if you're thinking big picture Right then then I like to tie in fundamentals as well. Okay Especially big picture because you know if you're trading over a three-hour period the fundamentals of a company Probably don't matter. You're trading longer term. They probably matter the technical indicators may help you trading a Fundamental company. Okay, they may help you pinpoint areas of Undersold or overbought for that equity Indicative of the underlying fundamentals that are driving the oversold or overbought price levels But they don't matter on a three-hour basis, right? They matter on a long-term basis. So fundamentally, okay? One of the other things going on you look to the movie slate they have, okay? Boy in 2019 when this thing was on fire, I think they had something like zoom it in Yeah, this run up here. Okay, we're zooming in here's 2019 Now they had a Perfect world going on in terms of they had movies that were crushing it and they had Disney Plus They was crushing it as well. They came out with the idea of Disney Plus in April with details Actually talking about the fact that they were gonna undercut Netflix pricing. That's the first acceleration the market says, you know Oh my goodness, man, that's your business plan. You're not gonna go HBO max where you're gonna go $20 a month You're gonna go like $4 a month and just try and get everybody You go up you launch Disney Plus in November talk about timing being everything. They literally launched their streaming service Two to three months before a global pandemic shut down everything, okay? You trade lower with the COVID lows you accelerate higher as Disney's Plus takes off the home market takes off You peak well before the market though, okay at 203 But this year part of what happened there is you had some Amazing movie theater runs. I think there were eight or nine different movies that grossed a billion dollars that they put out So you look at some of the movies they have if you're thinking longer term, okay? Here's where things get exciting. Now. These are always subject to change like anything, okay? but That's not the one I wanted. Excuse me one second. Where did I just go? Yes, this is the one I wanted. So this is a story from insider talking about They got you know 50 movies or something they go through every movie that they have But here's where I'm gonna zoom in on where things start to get interesting. Okay is Actually at the end of 2025 two years out You have a fantastic four film which is gonna be in the middle of 2025 that could be a big one You got Moana. We just watched Moana again outstanding movie if you got kids in the household folks You haven't checked out Moana check out Moana on Disney Plus. There's the ad So they got a remake of Moana coming out middle of 2025, but here's where it really gets interesting yet avatar 3 That should be a big movie. That's the end of 2025. This one was already made it was simultaneously Simultaneously shot with avatar to avatar 2 so it's sitting in the bank. They were gonna push it out in 2024 But things have all been pushed back. That's coming out now 2025 okay, then where do you go? They got a bunch of other films they talk about but you have an Avengers movie in the middle of 2026 and here's the main event the first Star Wars movie since I think 2019 okay that big year 2019 it included at least one Star Wars movie. It might have even been two So you're gonna have a seven-year lull. You're gonna get a Star Wars movie. Okay, they announced a new trilogy That's the deal you got three of them coming down the line the Star Wars films May 2026 they kick it off boom December. They hit you with the second Star Wars film in 2026 Okay, and then they got a bunch of other pitch films in here that they haven't quite pegged yet They have an Avengers movie 2027 and what do they got boom another Star Wars movie the end of 2027 So you can get three Star Wars movies over the period of about 18 months scheduled right now The middle of What I say 2026 right? Yeah, the middle of 2026 May 2026, so you're talking about two and a half years from right now That's the first time but guess what you wait two and a half years And in a couple years their movie slates gonna be rocking I think and that's what it's gonna take to put up some multi-billion-dollar movies They got plenty there coming down the line before that you know this this talks about many of them in here This goes to everyone. Okay, you got a Marvel's movie coming out in November You got a movie wish the bike rider is not familiar with many of these things right? These aren't gonna be the ones that crush it They might be great movies, but they are gonna be the ones that are Star Wars movies. Okay, and you got to go look at We're already into next March Ilya that might be a big one snow whites out there in March of 2024. There's one that may actually hit Deadpool What's that in seven eight months from right now talking about a big Deadpool? I like that Ryan Reynolds man. That's a good film film. You haven't seen those you got a plan of the apes coming down the line Okay, you have an inside out an animated movie Mufasa the lion kick Maybe that will get some action none of them are gonna do what three Star Wars movies in 18 months are gonna do for those So keep those on your radar at least time goes quickly You may find yourself if you're not in there yet. Maybe in a couple years looking at that slate and Yeah, there's only one Disney folks. They'll be okay. They will we haven't made to Disney yet We got to make it to Disney Gotta get ready to get that pocketbook out. All right, S&P's right now negative by three points market class back some of those losses Let's check in on Bitcoin because we're gonna talk a little bit of our Alameda research Bitcoin up $515 and how about this headline man? FTX employees found Alameda's secret backdoor months before the collapse the crypto exchange allowed Alameda Alameda To have a negative balance of up to 65 Billion dollars Right amazing Prosecutors say he stole funds from FTX customers in part by secretly ordering the programming of special features that gave Alameda His crypto trading firm the ability to treat FTX is a giant slush fund He's gonna claim that he was just a bad businessman And it seems like it's pretty reasonable Assumption to understand that when you take all the customer funds and put them into your trading firm and Your trading firm Has a negative balance of up to 65 billion dollars that you might be Pushing the limits of reasonable business decisions. We're gonna get to see that play out 65 billion dollars How about that one man Bitcoin 28,250 this thing has been on quite a tear to start off the year I start off the year all year. We're almost coming to the end of the year kicked off the year at 16,300 we're trading at 28,000 we got highs out there of 32,165 Markets barely in the red you check in on notes and bonds Highs for the session pushing 107 10 right now. We get the 10-year yield 4.7 1% stay tuned folks. We'll be right back You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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We trade lower after almost touch in 4300 right there on the open right after the open 435. We're up there We're trading lower right now with markets in the red. We jump over to crude Down about a buck o 4 buck o 2 right now at 83 20 the gold contract catches a little bit of a bid after being down to 1826 or at 1834 we jump over to the dollar index right now TXY Yeah a little bit of a reversal as well. We're at 106 85 we're at 106 64 right now We check back in on yields before we jump around a bit And sitting at about 107 10 right now. So back to FTX for a second, right? It was interesting Some of the other points in here just talking about how it happened basically Normal users could not go negative on FTX, okay? They were subject to an automatic liquidation process if you had an account on FTX you go negative What do they do? They sold off their assets if the balances fell below zero But that did not apply to Alameda their trading entity. Okay, so in the spring of 2022 a small group of employees We're going through the computer code and found some of those special features. They were working for ledger X That was a small crypto derivatives exchange that FTX had acquired the previous year They were looking at whether the code for FTX is main International exchange based in the Bahamas could be used in the US where regulations were tighter and here's the quote Just wanted to point out that there are currently a few places in the dot-dot-dot code base where Alameda gets special treatment in one way or another May 5th 2022 Right think about these in terms of the information that was out there. That's it man They know it right there that person probably knows it. Okay, his boss ledger X chief risk officer Julie Shoning replied that there are less rigid rules on the offshore exchange adding But yeah, we should clean up this sort of stuff, right? They know right there. Okay, they had earth several problematic practices without FTX managed risk and handle liquidations Including their ability to go negative and its exemption from normal auto at liquidation procedures The team was led by this woman Julie Shoning Shoning a PhD in physics who had previously worked At the CFTC which she analyzed high frequency trading At the time the significance of the discovery wasn't fully clear to the employees I would say is just if you put two and two together some of them probably figured it out FTX was still a respected crypto exchange. It would still be a half a year But you have to know the setup is is right for what they're doing, right? But still their teams leader was sufficiently worried about Alameda's treatment that she reported up the chain. She raised concerns about her teams discovered with her boss Okay They said it was fixed in Early August she was fired. That's the part I was waiting to get to right the Termination came after some FTX exact circulated a document containing what were reported purported to be screenshots of inappropriate Messages she had sent to other employees Some of the people said the messages were doctored or taken out of context. So they fired her. Okay FTX sometimes paid off whistleblowers, okay Shoning hired lawyer the lawyer banks who threatened to sue over the termination This is like the last part of this the two sides hashed out a five million dollar settlement But she didn't get it done before they went BK Maybe that gets clawed back to I Don't know but Probably wishes she got that done Right, probably wishes she got that done, man Yeah, it's it's it's a sad deal, you know, and you got to make sure you know you trust with you know John I feel for you somebody had I'm sure that you could have a lot of money in there It's a reasonable mistake to make. I'm fortunate coming from the online poker background dealing with unregulated exchanges That's what those online poker sites were unregulated exchanges I knew that any dollar I had in there was basically just trusted to some dude running a business in the Bahamas That if tomorrow he decided to close up shop, there was very little chance. I was gonna get my money back That's what this was. Okay. This was not fidelity. It was not Schwab Okay, it was FTX some random Bahamas dude who was running a shop over there And a lot of people got tricked into thinking it was anything other than that and that's where you know Hopefully they claw back Some of that money, but a lot of it's gone man because it was just mismanaged to an ultra degree Yeah, I mean 65 billion dollar negative positions, right? You tell me they find code that allows Alameda to go negative and they're the ones inspecting code and she worked at the CFTC Seems like you might be able to immediately understand that wait a second. This is not probably being run the way it needs to be All right, what else do we got going on here? We got mortgages. Let's see. I got a few articles from mortgages No, that one We're gonna talk about this one. Yeah, this is the one I want to talk about first Okay, the bond sell-off might force the Fed to rethink shedding assets this one out right when the program basically started this morning in the journal Okay, I read it right as I was kicking off the program and in one of the breaks But check out what this talks about and it's talking about how long they can do Quantitative tightening. Okay, and what they talk about in here is that not only are they pushing That debt off the books, but at the same time the banks are not buying it as well because they need to shore up their Balance sheets in the same way and that's creating an even bigger problem from mortgages. Okay And I'm jumping around but I'll jump to the end of this year the Fed However, could be underestimating what its commitment to quantitative tightening tightening is doing to the market psychology Okay, this is particularly the case with mortgages. That's why we all care about mortgages, right? Not only is the Fed reducing its holdings Quantitative tightening letting them roll off the balance sheet. We're gonna go over the big I think it's $7 trillion right now Not only is the Fed reducing its holdings But big banks focused on overcoming the effects of rising interest rates have been less eager to buy Okay So you have them unloading all of these securities at the same time that the banks don't want to buy into the securities as a result mortgage rates are much higher Relative to Treasury yields that has historically been the case. So even though we have high Treasury yields mortgage rates are historically above those rates Because of what's happening on the stresses on the housing market The Fed might be might like investors to view quantitative tightening as something that is most likely happening in the background But investors might not be inclined to agree So they say something similar happened in Before in 2013 the Fed was prepared to taper the pace at which was a accumulating assets Yeah, that was the taper tantrum right The Fed went back on its plan the time that they did that So it is interesting that you're not hearing them that conversation a lot the historical difference between Where the mortgage rates are now here's where you go to the next one, all right? Everything's related right now. There are a lot of conversations about yields and weight loss drugs, right? No The war though is your next mortgage seven or eight percent shop it around Okay, we won't spend an eternity on this article But with rates at the highest and more than two decades home buyers are looking for any way to lower their monthly payment And yeah, shop it around. Okay, because it is a competitive environment rates are high The amount by which typical mortgage rates range above or below the average Look how much disparity you have, okay? The typical mortgage rate ranges almost half a percent above or below the average right now depending on where you go Stay tuned folks one more segment. We'll be right back The gold report as a precious metal gold is still king It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market The US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX the dollar bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations the gold report New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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That's tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV Folks we have markets basically back to pre-market session lows. We just have 4280 right now We're negative by about 15 points on the S&P. That's a 30 percent We get the Nasdaq 100 off by 100 points right now. That's about seven tenths percent Dow off by 60 Russell off by 2 we check in on crude sitting down a dollar right now gold contract down about a buck 70 We check back in on gold as we wrap up the hour gold. Excuse me dollar 106 58 right now and we were talking about Interest rates on your mortgage, okay Make sure you shop around Because you didn't have this type of disparity when you had rates at such low levels But we just read right what's going on right now the gap between the 10-year Treasury and the mortgage rate is historically high so there is a gap there which is Probably the reason why you have So much volatility in the mount that people are paying on their mortgages Okay, some lenders are currently offering rates close to the seven and others are offering well over eight Depending on where you are on the credit Spectrum credit rating spectrum. I'm sure that matters all that matters, okay? But shop around for your mortgage because we have is an historically high gap Between the treasuries and where mortgages are it's usually what two percent You're at almost three percent right now, right and some occasions where the 10-year was versus where a mortgage would be Sometimes your 30 year mortgage was about two Maybe two and a half percent above where the 10 years at well the 10 years at 4.7 right now Okay, so two percent is six point seven above there two point five is seven point two right now Some people are paying eight. That's three and a quarter percent above where the 10 year is trading at Yeah, so there's some room there make sure you shop around Uh, yeah, they talk about one gentleman in here seven point two five percent They shopped around they got six point six two big numbers man All right appreciate you tuning in folks kicking things off stay tuned We got our man basal Chapman coming up next as we finish up the program We're going to check in on constellation brands They are selling a lot of beer. They're selling out a lot of liquor to keel in particular But they're not selling as much wine and maybe spirits overall Nonetheless some decent numbers there sound a lot of modelo beer and corona brands double jiu-jitsu sales growth over there Can we take a look longer term? Things are not a tear just chopping around from where it was basically in 2021 but this year up to 273 folks Thanks so much for tuning in stay tuned for basal coming up next I'll see you tomorrow morning at nine o'clock. Have a great thursday everybody