 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network. I Definitely feel like a bit of a scrooge today because we're talking MLB betting and we're talking some money lines and strikeout props that I like over at Fandall sportsbook and of the three strikeout props all three are unders on Good pitchers, which means I am rooting against those guys getting strikeouts Please don't tell pitching ninja next time he is on that I betrayed him by betting unders across the board But I feel like there's value in all three. We're getting plus money in all three and I've got them projected below that mark So it's not fun to root against some legendary arms But that's what we're gonna have to do for tonight in our in the strikeout department So we'll break down who those are why I'm on them for today And also a couple of money lines that I like for tonight over at Fandall welcome on into covering the spread That's part of the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research here to break down Tuesday's MLB betting slate breakdown my favorite reads for tonight over at Fandall sportsbook before dive in though quick reminder We did talk about NFL week number one for the first time yesterday talked about a couple of spreads a money line and a total I like right now over at Fandall sportsbook for week number one in The NFL if you want to find that check it out on the covering the spread podcast feed And as always you can find these shows on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus as well Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers Yep bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars and bonus bets guaranteed plus all customers who bet five dollars We'll get one hundred dollars off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV Now is the best time to join Fandall the app is easy to use and you can be on everything from the spreads to player props and more Fandall official partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC First online real money wager only ten a dollar first deposit required a bonus issued is non-letrable bonus bets That expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook. Fandall comm gambling problem Call 1 a hundred gambler or visit fandall comm slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Tennessee in Virginia call 1 a hundred next step or text next step to 5334 2 in I've lost my spot in Arizona 188 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org Chess Chat Connecticut 1809 and with it in Louisiana or in Indiana 1805 224 700 and there's a chaos gambling help by common Kansas 18077 770 stop in Louisiana visit empty gambling help at Oregon, Maryland Visit 1 a hundred gambler died net in West Virginia call 1805 224 700 in Wyoming Hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org Or call you hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 24 seven support in Massachusetts call 187 78 hoping wire text open Y in New York NFL Sunday ticket offer ends 918 23 no refunds terms and embargoes apply a hundred dollars off NFL Sunday ticket not YouTube TV YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV Redemption requires a Google account and a curve from a payment commercial use excluded Let's dig in now to some bets I like across major league baseball for tonight beginning with the money lines that I like over at fan dual for today The first one is going to be in this Guardians versus Dodgers matchup and this number moved quite a bit It was the Guardians plus 184 earlier on it is currently plus 168 So you can pride off the plus 168 are 37.3 percent looking at my model for today I've got the Guardians still above that at 41 percent So a bit of value, but as always make sure you shop around so you can get that plus 184 out there somewhere because Maybe there's a book that is behind and still giving us a better number on this Guardians team Now the reason I was on this one to begin with is that my model is not a big fan of Noah Cindergarde who will start today for the Guardians and it's not a fan of him despite the fact This is a revenge game which matters more than anything else the Guardians offense has finally been Competent and their active roster now is a 99 a WRC plus against righties for the full season Guardians are facing Bobby Miller who has a 3.38 er a since he started to lean on more forcing fastballs and fewer sinkers And his peripherals are good as well but just a tough number to get to for a team that's on the road in the Dodgers against a Non-dumpster fire offense and the Guardians still have a shot at the postseason It's like 9% but they could still like the postseason. So they're gonna push they're gonna play their guys And I think that does matter quite a bit. So plus 168 is still a value for me again 37% implied odds I've got them at 41% to win for today So still a value but shop around so you can find a 180 out there somewhere a 174 I think I've seen in some spots as well See what the best number you can get on the Guardians is because I'm still showing value with where they're at at Fandall But maybe you get a better number on them somewhere else as well Other money line I like for tonight also ties into the different bed on the strikeout department for today That is the Red Sox money line taking on the Astros. They are currently minus 152 Sorry plus 128 at Fandall Sportsbook are the Red Sox taking on the Astros and I do like the Red Sox at that number And I'm not super far off in the market here. I've got the Red Sox win odds at 46.8% their implied odds are 43.9% This is Tanner Hauke's first start off the I out which does leave open some uncertainty With this Red Sox team because we've not seen him since he had that that facial injury But he did pitch really well in his three rehab starts and I think that does matter to an extent Can you get some strikeouts? Can you prevent walks? Can you look good at how definitely did that? I think it's also reassuring that Hauke is not coming off of an elbow injury a forearm injury a lower body injury that could linger It was it was to his face which which takes for him obviously, but like from a an injury progression perspective It doesn't worry me as much as some injuries to red flag situations would Hauke before he went on the IL had knee array above 5 so the results were not good and you can explain that because He was letting up a pretty high hard hit rates and that's that's a skill to suppress hard contact It's not a skill he possessed, but if you look at baseball savants, they're expected the array I think does a good job of encapsulating hard contact and kind of accounting for that and they have as expected the array of 3.92 so even with the hard contact being acknowledged We can still expect some positive regression from Hauke as he comes off the IL So this is Justin Verlander. He has had good results, but he does let up a lot of balls and play So I agree with the model here that the Red Sox were undervalued a plus 128 And I do think that they are a good team to turn to for today So the two money lines are like the Red Sox money line a plus 128 in the Guardians at plus 168 For tonight now mention that that Red Sox money line does tie into one of the strikeout props And you've probably heard the wordage there We're Justin Verlander is subject to variance because the balls and play he allows and obviously that'll correlate to a strikeout prop unders Let's take out check out Verlander and this number has moved a lot too Under five and a half is now minus 102 is previously 124. So a lot of movement there Let's talk through this one though because I do still show value on under five and a half Even at minus 102 at Bandol sports like he is going very deep in games So that's not a bit uncomfortable with this number having moved as much as it is Because he can go a hundred and six pitches if he wants to but in the 11 starts with fewer sliders Verlander has gone over five and a half strikeouts Just five times to the under sitting at a 55% clip here He did have one big strikeout game with the Astros across three starts seven strikeouts there But just six total strikeouts and the other two starts with the Astros Boston's active roster has a 20.5% strikeout right against righty so far this year So I still think that there is value on the under five and a half at minus 102 Now I said that because I've really under projected for 4.8 strikeouts tonight That means that he's gonna go under five and a half at a clip larger than The just over 50% implied at minus 102 So again as always doing to give the caveat to shop around so you can find a book that is lagging behind on The early the movement towards the under on Verlander But I would shop around and still if fangirls the best number you can get a minus 102 I would still be okay with that now obviously a Verlander under does correlate with the money line For the Boston Red Sox this could be a spot where you want to check out potentially a same game Parley on both those if you were to do that together right now at fangirls sportsbook Those tied together is plus 273 with just those two bets tied together. I think that's fine Again, my personal preference is to always play things straight up unless there is a heavy draw I have the incentive to tie them together I think this is a very defensible route though So if you want to go same game parlay if you got some kind of boost for a same game parlay something like that I do think this is the route you could go at the Red Sox money line in Verlander under five and a half at plus 273 but for me personally I'll take the single legs Verlander under five and a half minus 102 and the Red Sox money line at plus 128 Let's take a look at the other strikeout props I like for tonight over at fangirl. Hopefully these have not moved as well as mentions a couple of strikeout prop unders on pictures I like and Might be surprising to have Grace Rodriguez in that department but Rodriguez has pitched really well so far this year and I've been very impressed with him and I've been on the Orioles money line when Rodriguez is pitched So there have been times where I've been pretty high at him But tonight his strikeout prop at fangirl sportsbook isn't six and a half strikeouts and the under is minus 160 so That's definitely a situation where you are paying a price the implied odds there over 60% So keep that in mind for sure, but at under six and a half. I do like Rodriguez a minus 160 I would also take under five and a half. I was plus 124 this morning Under five and a half. I would take that as well if you get that number instead You want to go to plus money? Obviously you want the buffer with the extra strikeout there if you can get it But I think either route is okay with Rodriguez. The reason we are here is he's looked awesome since coming back up and I need to acknowledge how good he has been but There's something been a huge number of strikeouts with Rodriguez I'm looking at a nine-star sample here, which does include three stars before he got sent back down to triple But look at those three stars plus the six since he's come back up His highest strikeout mark is six and again his strikeout prop here is six and a half. So Bit confused about that. He's picturely well, but it hasn't been due to a crazy crazy number of strikeouts Now part of the reason why this number could be high is because he has gotten a lot of whiffs a lot of swinging strikes and That strikeout number could rise But to put it at six and a half to me is honestly a bit wild the J's active roster has a 21.6% strikeout rate against righty. So I like Rodriguez a lot I am very okay being on the Orioles when he's on the mound I've been there before will probably be there at some point again I think I've had strikeout overs Rodriguez as well, but I'm not sure if it'll translate to a ton of strikeouts right now I have Rodriguez projected for 5.2 strikeouts. So With this number increasing to six and a half I think there's a lot of value in the under at minus 160 again if you want to go with plus money under five and a half I took that personally earlier on today. I think it was plus 120 when I took it at five and a half Obviously there is movement towards the over here or else Vandal would not have budged up to six and a half So maybe I'm on the wrong side here Maybe I'm misreading the Rodriguez situation But again, he has not gotten to seven strikeouts yet with this new approach in a nine-start sample He has not gotten this since he came back up. So I'm a bit confused honestly why this number increased But we'll go with the under six and a half at minus 160 for Grayson Rodriguez Final strikeout prop I am eyeing for tonight isn't a game that was rescheduled from yesterday The angels and the reds that is out West Lucas Geolito is taking on the reds His strikeout prop is currently at seven and a half and the under for him is minus 144 it was six and a half earlier on Plus 120 so both Rodriguez and Geolito numbers have moved up for some reason I'm on the under for both them. They both gone up the verlander one went down So with the market on verlander apparently against the market on Geolito and Rodriguez But as with Rodriguez, I would look around for Geolito if you can find under six and a half plus 120 or so I think that makes a lot of sense under seven and a half to me Also makes a lot of sense even if it is minus 144, which is where it is that right now at Fandall sport Well, let's talk through this one and why I think that number is honestly kind of outrageous for Geolito I haven't projected for 6.3 strikeouts here and players projected at 6.3 strikeouts tend to go under six and a half at More than a 50% clip so bumping that number up to seven and a half even if it's minus 144 The implied odds there minus 144 are 59% even there We're gonna be on the under pretty easily Focusing in on the past nine stars for Geolito Since he started to throw more change-ups once again Geolito set the over on Six and a half strikeouts. Let's put it down there put it one strikeout lower He said over six and a half strikeouts three times and nine starts and he's failed to get even six strikeouts and all the others so he's had five strikeouts or fewer in Six of nine starts and for some reason his strikeout prop is at seven and a half for tonight and a lot of those starts Did come on the road? He does get a boost here facing a Reds offense that will strike out against righties But I honestly can't comprehend why this number is up at seven and a half So for both Rodriguez and Geolito, it is worth noting. We are betting against the market here because apparently there's a movement towards the over on both those guys and betting against the market typically does not go well However, I've got both these guys projected a full strikeout below. I guess not Rodriguez. Yeah, Rodriguez. I have 5.2 He's 6.5 Geolito 6.3 for me 7.5 is his number I've got them both projected a full strikeout below their numbers even at minus 144 over Geolito minus 164 Rodriguez I think there is still value in the under so strikeout props for today as always shop around try to get the best number identify There is a book that you need a better number at but I've got Geolito under seven and a half minus 144 Verlander under five and a half minus one or two Rodriguez under six and a half at minus 160 These numbers moving like crazy. So as always Survey the landscape and see what you got if the market continue moves against me Maybe hold off and see if you can get a better number later on But I don't know why it would not sure why I did to begin with here for today That is all that we have for today here on covering the spread tomorrow College football is back and so is Dr. Ed Fang He'll be joining us to break down week zero in college football talking about his betting process for college football How his models work and stuff like that You can get that right here on the covering the spread podcast feed the fandal YouTube page and fandal TV plus later on this week Austin cast back with us try to continue his hot streak in the EPL. He'll be on Thursday JJ Zach recent of late round comm will be with us on Friday Talking some season-long player props over at Fandall sportsbook. If you got any questions for me I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a and an ES. You can also follow fandal research at fandal research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across baseball for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for some college football. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network