 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network a full 15 games on the slate for tonight in MLB Baseball, we're gonna be breaking down some strikeout props with Rob Friedman pitching Ninja getting his favorite strikeout props for tonight I'm gonna go through some money lines I like an NFL week number one as well a jam-packed day a lot of good pitchers Let's dive on in and get you set for Tuesday's action This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Rob Friedman Checking out on Twitter at pitching energy. You can find him at peacock MLB Nessun MLB on Fox everywhere you are consuming the best baseball content Rob happy Tuesday to you How are you doing today? I'm doing great dude. It sounds like I am everywhere. What is up with that? What is up with that? How do you know? I have no idea like I know you don't sleep I don't even need to bother asking that but like are you secretly kind of excited for October when this because you get less baseball But it's like higher leverage baseball the schedules more condensed. Are you secretly a bit excited about that? I was just talking about that last night like how you're running down towards the end of the season And then every game is so important and you get to see the best of the best pitching at their best Against the best. Yeah, absolutely excited about that. That is Without a doubt an awesome time of the year. I like all of it though Yeah, this is all fun last night was kind of a pitching wise but but but today lots of good pitching Yeah, I had ranger Suarez over four and a half I it was good looking good in the first the first inning did not look so good after that though Thankfully I was in bed so not too frustrated I got to avoid that frustration there and just avoid that overall so two straight disappointments for me with rangers Suarez Maybe we'll note that for a next time around potentially. We'll see I was gonna say you're a ranger Suarez guy last time we talked about him too, apparently Maybe we'll make that past tense, but I still like it Well, we'll just maybe pedal back at least on publicly being an ranger Suarez for the near future. Okay, Rob It's a fun slate for tonight. We got a lot of good pitchers. We got a really fun matchup in Arizona Aaron Nola versus Zach Gallin. That's a pretty fun one got some other big names in the slates Maybe we see Lucas Giolito get back to you slowly getting back to where he was previously Brady singers on this slate. I like a lot of names here Where are you looking at in terms of strikeout props for this Tuesday offering? Well, you mentioned some of my favorite guys Zach Gallin, North Carolina guy. I went to North Carolina Gotta love him. Lucas great, dude. What I'm doing is I have two nice parlays. I'm going with six and nine Cape Props Just I'm just like that sometimes. It's Tuesday. Like we got alive in it up, right? I love it Yeah, I got hazeless was Arto the Jesus lizard at six K's or more and Shane McClellan at nine K's or more And then I have Brady Singer for six K's or more and Aaron Nola for nine K's or more So I like all those guys singers been pitching great. Like I mean, he's his two seamers been fantastic. So Yeah, he's figured it all out Going to that that first game you got the rays versus the Marlins the parlay of those two together with Lizardo at six plus and McClellan at nine plus. It's plus 484 So pretty long odds but Rob both these guys have a lot of juice obviously Lizardo working back from an injury What do you see him from since he came back? Are you feeling good about what you've seen from him so far since his return to the mount? Yeah, you know always a little inconsistency with him But when he's on he can strike out everybody like like dude stuff is electric Really really top-end stuff when he's on and I'm hoping he's on today Like even if he's not on six K's should be doable for my man And I feel no need to ask you about Shane McClellan. I mean nine makes a lot of sense for him I think that one's that one's pretty obvious. Yeah, he did he had a little bit of a slump and then last outing I thought he was throwing as well as ever. So I don't know if it was just like This season's a long season. Sometimes you have that he looked at the top of his game last time out So it would not surprise me to see another great outing. Yeah, absolutely. It is a long season I think that the the fun thing about it being a long season is when the guys who Put up absurd results the entire time we're doing that. That's kind of what era Nola has done and Nola's on the road facing off against Arizona not a bad spot for him nine is a big number But Nola gets there pretty often So what's the key for you in the aggression and getting to the nine plus strikeouts for Nola here for tonight? It's really is it when his knuckle curve is on which it has been He could like it's it's not a hittable pitch because it meshes so well with his other stuff I mean he tunnels really well. He's aggressive If I see that he's gonna strike out He'll strike out the house like that dude when he's on it can strike out as many hitters as anybody in baseball Yeah, absolutely. I that's plus 804 the combo of Singer at six plus strikeouts and Nola at nine plus strikeouts and I found myself Gravitating towards singer a lot recently and I find no reason to stop for tonight I mean, I think that is he just an underrated pitcher. Is that kind of the as simple as it is the Brady singer right now? He is I think as of late. He's turned himself into an ace. He always had that stuff You never knew how it was when it was gonna figure it out He's figured it out like you watch his two seamer and how he dominates a game with that He gets so many K's looking because people give up hitters give up on the on the pitch and it catches his own constantly He does it over and over again and at this point Definitely not a fluke and he could throw a slider off that he can you know, he's he's figured it out Like I love watching him pitch get some great highlights from him because there's nothing better than like a front door sinker Where somebody's jumping out of the way, right? Absolutely, well, I want to talk to you about another two seamer here in a second But the the pick the picks for Rob for tonight He likes Lizardo in the clan hand to go for six plus and nine plus strikeouts respectively in the same parlay with Brady singer and Aranola both to go at six plus and nine plus Respectively now that two seamer was gonna talk to you about is George Kirby. George Kirby is facing off here at Detroit I want to talk about that entire game because we got Kirby on one side Matt Manning on the other and I liked Kirby strikeout prop earlier. It has moved aggressively It is now up to six and a half but plus 124 on the over my projections do still show value on that new number But there may be some lower numbers to lingering out there for George Kirby. I do see a five and a half right now at a different book so When you're looking at George Kirby Is that sinker a new pitch because like it seems it didn't I don't think I'm seeing it as much earlier on this year But recently it seems like he's been leaning on it and it seems like it's been disgusting Yeah, I think he's just figured out when we're to throw it You know, it's like that with a lot of guys that are coming up I think I love about Kirby is he doesn't walk folks like he was like that in college He had the I think he had the the national record or national high at least for a strikeout to walk ratio in college And he's taken it to the pros like the dude is around the zone with good stuff and you're seeing results now So he's he's another guy who's figured it out. I think your two guys in that game are are young pitchers that are They're figuring stuff out at the big league level, which makes it so much fun to watch like I love watching these guys get better and Kirby pitches like a Like an ace veteran because of his just demeanor And is in his elite command. Yeah, you mentioned the efficiency So you mentioned the lack of walks in the time since he you know started leaning more on that sinker It's seven star sample 3.47 pitches per plate appearance. That is like average is around four He's about a half pitch below that which allows him to get deeper in games You know, there's a doesn't have the longest pitch count, but like because he's so efficient He can still work his way out there. So even at six and a half I think there is value on Kirby Plus 124 over six and a half there, but if you can find five and a half I would gravitate that way and like I said, there are still some five and a half out there Matt Manning not posted yet at faddle, but else we can have a four and a half the over is plus 115 I like that one too rob. Um, I Think that since Manning came back up. It's only been five starts, but especially the past four I think he's looked really good. What has been your impression of Matt Manning in this most recent stretch with Detroit He's really good and dude has incredible upside. I thought last outing. He was brilliant What do you have like eight k's and uh, yeah, and and his slider has a Something like a 47% whiff rate. So yeah, like you combine that with this fastball and and to do that at this level I think I also like his curve ball too. It's a pretty curve ball. So Yeah, I think I think that's a good pick I like him as a pitcher His best if his best years are to come like he is going to be in there He's going to be an ace for a long time. So it's Kirby like those are two really good pitchers It's a fun match up. I plan to be watching that I plan to watch it too. I plan to watch that uh, lasardo versus McClanahan game as well I mean that that's a pretty fun one as well So littered with fun games across the entire slate for tonight That is rob freeman. Make sure you check out his twitter account at pitching ninja. Check him out wherever he is Everywhere else as well to get his analysis on the games and check out tonight Hopefully a lot of gifts from that. Miami versus Tampa Bay game and the Detroit versus Seattle game rob Enjoy the baseball for tonight. Thank you for coming on for today. We'll talk to you once again next week My pleasure is always Alrighty, that is rob freeman once again Check him out on twitter at pitching ninja to get all of his insights and get hopefully some sweet sweet sweet gifts of uh, those manning pitches lasardo erinola A finger for tonight We're talking about nfl week one in just one second to get you a couple money lines that my number is like After some movement we've seen the past couple of weeks and just second but first nfl kickoff Still a few weeks away You can get on the action now on fandal sports book with their nfl super win bonus right now anyone Who plays at least a 50 dollar super bowl winner bet? 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In arizona 1 800 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 In kineticate 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc pg.org slash chat in indiana 109 with it In Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why our text open why in tennessee call the red line at 1 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 In y omec 1 800 5 2 2 47 100 or west virginia 1 800 gambler dot net Let's dig into some nfl money lines that have joined value in week number one We even talked nfl week one in a couple of weeks now, but uh discussed earlier on I was on the giants of plus six and a half and the texans plus eight and a half Texans weren't eight at fandal you could get eight and a half elsewhere that has now moved eight and a half A fandal as well so if you're betting exclusively at fandal you can get them at that number there now The giants down to five and a half against the texans so That one uh no longer in play But there has been a lot of movement elsewhere and it's put me on a couple of money lines for week one Those are the browns the plus 112 against the panthers and the cardinals the plus 150 against the chiefs And yes, this is accounting for dishaun watson indiana hopkins suspensions That is accounted for in the numbers potentially over accounted for in the lines Let's start here with the browns. I love the infrastructure around the quarterback everything else outside of quarterback for this game The defense here should be pretty sick. I've got uh, but the browns projected to rank third and past defense efficiency They've got guys who can disrupt up front. Obviously miles garrett is a chief among them But it's a pretty good defensive front carolina Has a lot of fresh faces on the offensive line. That is a good thing for them That is a good thing. They needed fresh faces after what happened last year But it also may take some time for that for them to get cohesion along that unit for them to gel up front I think that opens the door for this browns defense the defense though Not a huge part of the equation for me in terms of my betting model. Obviously offense is weighted up because it's more predictable Tends to matter more. Um, so I care more about offense I do like the pieces around jacobi berset. I actually have cleveland Projected to be a more efficient overall offense with berset and the panthers with baker mostly due to the infrastructure around the quarterback I have the the panthers passing offense projected to be better, but Other stuff does favor uh cleveland here and I like baker a lot I think that he uh as a talented guy who's gotten a bit underrated at this point. I hope he does really well I just have questions about the rest of the team given the change along the offensive line The money line here is plus 112. I've got this basically as a coin flip Plus two and a half is minus 112 So 52.8 percent implied odds there the implied odds at plus 112 or 47 percent I've got about three percentage points of edge in both markets So you can go either way with this one. I would not push back on the plus two and a half you want to go there but I'd rather avoid the issues with key numbers at two and a half and Go with the money line here at plus 112 So for me the preferred route for betting the browns week one taking advantage of potentially an overreaction to the quarterback situation I am okay going with them at plus 112 in the baker may field the revenge game The line of thinking is a bit different with the cardinals in terms of the money line versus the spread They're at plus three and a half at minus 118 So I am getting a win and out a win on this bet if they lose by a field goal or rather than a better push And I also Even with the with the browns one plus two and a half not getting the field goal at all Plus 150 on the money line is pretty long and I do think that they are live here I've got this game with the cheese favored by 1.23 points. So they are the the rightful favorites I just think they might be favored by a bit too much and part of that is Turnover on the cheese offense. Not only are they changing out key pieces But they're doing with juju smith shuster and mark has now the scant laying missing a bit of time in camp That's a tough task if you're trying to reacclimate to a new offense And it hasn't been like long stretches, but they have missing time there This would be a different offense. I have faith in them I think that it is a kind of intriguing offense, honestly The way they want to run things the big bodies they've got that should be able to allow them to run the ball pretty efficiently I think this will work out for them, but it is a big change Cardinals obviously have big changes too. No deandre hopkins here. No christian kirk marquise brown in the mix That's a lot of change over but this offense when kyler murray has been healthy has been very good very efficient and That's been with turnover previously on this offense as well So i'm accounting for all this I actually have the cardinals projected to be a worse offense this year than they were last year even when hopkins is healthy So the healthy the the not healthy i shouldn't say when he's back The fully realized version of this cardinals offense in my numbers is worse than what they had for the full season last year So I feel like i'm being a bit conservative with their with their with their offensive projections Even then though I can't get to this number I have the cardinals win odds at 45 percent. That's up from 40 implied at this number That's a pretty decent gap and it's one that i'm okay with I don't mind taking the three and a half, especially if you can get down uh closer to minus one 10 on the three and a half But for me, I do like the money line here So adding on to our week one week one card We got the the giants plus six and a half texans plus eight and a half I'm going to add on the brown's money line at plus 112 and the cardinals money line at plus 150 I think both those advantageous numbers where we can buy into teams They potentially uh react to overreactions for some guys missing for those two teams They've been a nightmare at spreadsheets because of this but I do think that uh I think we're accounting enough for the absences that both those teams have For week number one That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread want to once again recommend checking out rob freeman at pitching ninja on twitter Check him out on peacock mlb nessen mlb on fox everywhere across the board really good stuff check out the uh guys He mentioned two hasas lizardo shabby clannaghan brady singer erinola And i've got matt manning uh over four and a half in george kirby Hopefully he can get five and a half still on him Uh again, I think you can at caesar's book So make sure to check that out and then we'll see about the nfl week one money lines as well I'll be talking some more baseball for tomorrow on the show and also going through some racing vets We'll talk about some nascar talk about hopefully some formula one and maybe some xinity series two Our episode with dr ed fang is going to be up on thursday for this week versus Um instead of wednesday we have a guest uh parker stats of wars will be joining us uh for this week So we're gonna push things back one day to get his insights on week one That should be up probably around seven o'clock wednesday night So not uh fully into thursday, but either way make sure to subscribe to covering the spread to get that right as it's posted Try to get into those lines, uh, whenever you can and uh, also check out the fan dual podcast network on twitter at fan dual podcasts If you've got any questions for me i am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb Bets for tonight. Good luck to you the nfl week one bets two We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for some more baseball and some racing you're on the show This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network