 Good day, May 40 here. So do you remember all the despair after Trump lost the 2020 election among people right of center in the United States? This was the last election due to demographics that Republicans could possibly win the presidency and it's turning this despair is turning out to be without strong foundation. So number one the demographics issue is widely misunderstood because just because the US Census says something doesn't mean that that reflects reality and so if someone is say seven eighths white and one eighth Chinese they accounted as Asian in the US Census So if someone's part white and part non-white they are only counted as non-white in the US Census So the United States Census dramatically overstates the number of non-whites and correspondingly dramatically understates the number of whites in America. So much of the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the demographic situation in America is vastly overstated compared to the reality. So now white people are not going to be replaced and done away with in the United States. Now people respond to incentives. So for example identifying its Anglo is not considered, you know, cool in the United States and much of the first world. So 10, 20 million Americans who are primarily Anglo in descent identify with the minority part of their their demographics. So, you know, Irish or German or Asian or whatever. So America is far more Anglo than it says in the US Census because there is a flight from white because in some circles being white is considered boring and if you can only get a little bit more ethnic that's spicy and that's hot and that's cool. So the US Census dramatically undercounts the number of Anglos in the country, dramatically undercounts the number of whites, dramatically overcounts the number of non-whites in the country. Now, normally in polls about party identification, Democrats generically hold about a four-point advantage and according to the latest Gallup organization poll, 47% of Americans now identify with the Republican Party and 42% with the Democrats. So after Joe Biden took office a year ago, Democrats held a 49 to 40 advantage. So Democrats held a nine-point advantage. Now Republicans hold a five-point advantage. So there's been a 14-point swing in the polls. Why were you banned from Reddit, Stacey? Well, I think Reddit's become increasingly politically correct over the past three years, right? So there's much less robust discussion on Reddit. So a 14-point poll change in party identification is about the most dramatic reversal that Gallup has ever recorded. And the data analysis website 538 shows a similar parallel collapse in Joe Biden's own popularity. Looking at Christopher Cordwell, he writes fairly regularly for the New York Times. So Christopher Cordwell is one of my favorite commentators. He's about as far right as you can get and still be in polite society. He wrote that fantastic book last year, The Age of Entitlement, about how the civil rights revolution had essentially replaced the Constitution as the new and more powerful Constitution. So we no longer had, for example, freedom of association, that you could not discriminate when you're renting out an apartment, right? Let's say you've got your age mother and you can't discriminate in who you may rent out a guest house to. And you can't discriminate in employment, even though obviously, generally speaking, the more you have in common with your fellow employees, the more efficient and effective will be the workplace. So when we got the civil rights revolution, you had a vast expansion in rights for historically oppressed minorities, but this vast expansion of rights came with a vast decrease in rights for other people. So it's not like you expand rights for one oppressed group and nobody's the loser, all right? You increase rights for one group, you're taking away rights from other groups. So Joe Biden entered office with higher approval than Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, or George W. Bush at 55%. He's now tumbled to 42%. So how did the Democrats get into so much trouble? And remember, it's a two-person race. So a lot of people commented, how could Joe Biden win the 2020 election when he wasn't a particularly inspiring campaigner? Well, Joe Biden didn't have to be great. He simply had to be more appealing than Donald Trump. So Stacey says, I was just trying to discuss whether white people have a unique ingenuity and inventiveness. Yeah, say something positive about white people. It's a good way to get banned from places like Reddit. Okay, so when Joe Biden ran for president, all he had to be is more palatable than Donald Trump. He didn't have to be awesome. He didn't have to be inspiring. Like, I've never met anyone who's inspired by Joe Biden, right? There was no enthusiasm for Joe Biden. There was tremendous enthusiasm for Donald Trump. But in the end, when people came to vote, they had a binary choice. They could either vote for Trump essentially or vote for Biden. And so there was a 3% swing away from the Republicans in the suburbs in both the 2018 midterm election and the 2020 election. So Trump lost the election in the suburbs, simply the suburbs of the Midwest swing states like Philadelphia, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Michigan. Okay, so the Democrats have gotten into trouble more than the Republicans have been particularly effective, right? But as the Democrats sink, it can't help but push out Republican prospects. So even though we'd be hard pressed to say, you know, this Republican was particularly inspiring, maybe Glenn Junkin, the new governor of Virginia, maybe he's been the most effective Republican politician, perhaps Ron DeSantis in Florida. Yeah, Richard Spencer tipped the scales of Trump in 2016, for which there's zero evidence. So how did the Democrats get into trouble so much? So I think the main thing was that they allied very strongly with the great racial reckoning. And I think even many non white Americans think that the anti police, you know, pro criminal Black Lives Matter and Tifa agenda is extreme. And I think that's the primary reason why Democrats have sunk in the polls. So the January 6 Capitol Hill riots, discredited Trump and discredited Trumpism and did far more damage for the cause than if they just done nothing. On the other hand, you know, Black Lives Matter and the Tifa riots have done far more damage to the Democratic Party as opposed to doing nothing. So overall, non blacks in America are less sympathetic to black issues after the great racial reckoning of 2020. And after all the Black Lives Matter riots, then they were prior to that. So stage one, you take action, but stage two, there's a reaction. So that's why the wise person has to consider what will be the reaction to what I'm about to do or what I'm about to say. So the Democrats by largely throwing in with Black Lives Matter and the great racial reckoning and the defund the police movement, right? They essentially thrown in with the criminals as opposed to the police. And even liberals don't enjoy rising crime rates. You know, we've had skyrocketing. We've had homicide rates are up approximately 40% since 2019, right? Most liberals don't appreciate that. So I think Democrats, as Christopher Cordwell points out, are telling a story about America that, you know, America's this highly racist, racist and repressive society that's actively harming black people that most Americans, including many blacks and Latinos and Asians, are simply not buying. I think that's the number one reason for the dramatic decrease in Democratic Party identification in the polls and with it an uptick in Republican identification. Joe Biden has become much more liberal on immigration. And so we've got like a wave of mainly Haitian immigrants, about 14,000 Haitian immigrants have arrived at the Rio Grande near Del Rio, Texas. And American voters are not pleased with this massive influx of illegals. So we're no longer getting a massive influx from Mexico. But most Americans would not be thrilled with 14,000 Haitians invading the country illegally. So Joe Biden's approval ratings on immigration are 36%. We've got massive increase in homicide rates, about 40%. And Joe Biden's approval rating on crime is 39%. So the Democrats are on the wrong side of the growing apprehension about rising crime rates. So the Democrats, by and large, have thrown in with the criminals rather than the people trying to keep the peace. Inflation, right? We've got inflation running at 7%. I'm going to have an unpopular opinion here. I don't think Joe Biden is to blame for the inflation rate. I believe that the inflation rate is primarily the result of problems in the supply chains, which have nothing to do with Joe Biden. A fallout from the pandemic lockdowns. COVID-19, as Christopher Cordwell points out, opened up a window on our public schools. And Democrats, once again, increasingly on the wrong side of many issues that voters are passionate about. So Democrats are the party of the teachers' unions. The Democrats won't go against the teacher unions. And what are in the best interests of teacher unions are not necessarily in the best interests of America. So teachers' unions have been largely behind stopping in-school education and trying to push things online because they feel like they'll be safer for their union membership. But parents who are working through the COVID crisis, they can't stay home to look after their kids. So the Democrats largely back the teaching of contentious race dogmas, like critical race theory, right? And they are the party that supports teachers' unions who want to just have online education as opposed to in-person education. So parents who are working, they want their kids in school. They can't be staying home trying to look after their kids. Also, Democratic Party and their leading politicians have overhauled and abolished competitive public school exams in New York, in San Francisco, Boston, Northern Virginia, California, because of the racial composition of exam results, usually disproportionately Asians who are doing well. And so Asians are increasingly splitting off from the Democratic Party. Latinos are increasingly splitting off from the Democratic Party. Whites, right? There's probably less identification of whites with the Republican Party after Trump than prior to 2016. So that's a surprising result. So Trump dropped about five points among white men in the 2020 election, but he gained among Latino and black men. So the Democrats in the news media have been talking about this vital need for voting rights. Our democracy is under threat. We need this voting rights act, right? We've got to protect democracy, right? That's the media line and that's the Democrats line, but from a more objective perspective, it just seems like a partisan wish list. It doesn't seem to have anything to do with protecting democracy. So Joe Biden taught in the Lanter crowd this month that those who opposed this voting rights bill, which is really a partisan wish list, were the same as the segregationists and the people who supported the Confederacy. So he kind of combined Hillary Clinton's 2016 deplorables remark with anti-white race beating. In 2020, Democrats lost white non-college educated voters by 25 points that will probably keep growing with this kind of approach. So many minorities, many Asians and Latinos in particular don't like the Democrats increasingly racialized approach. So the Democrats are increasingly turning themselves into the black party and painting Republicans as the white party. And an increasing number of Latinos and Asians in that circumstance say we would rather not identify with the black party. So blacks have been very successful in influencing, dominating the Democratic Party, but it is coming at the cost of Asian and Latino support. So in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 election, Biden and Trump rate evenly among Hispanics. So in the 2020 election, Biden won by 30 percentage points. Right now, he's even in a hypothetical rematch with Trump. So the Democrats are also increasingly attacking Republicans as the party of Trump. But while Donald Trump may not be so popular, Trumpism is the way forward for the Republican party. So a Trumpism without Trump may well be the most electable path forward. Trump was very successful into tapping into smoldering grievances against the information economy elites and managers, and many blacks, Latinos, Asians shared that resentment. In the 2020 election, Mark Zuckerberg gave over $400 million to a non-profit to help local governments organize elections under COVID conditions. That gift equaled the amount of federal funding designated for that purpose. And people who worry about private wealth influencing elections, they're not going to be happy that Mark Zuckerberg essentially underwrote the 2020 election. So let's go to the comments. And the crowd says, sometimes I think Luke is jealous of Richard Spencer. Richard Spencer tipped the scales for Trump, and then he tipped the scales for Biden in 2020. He's basically a kingmaker, a world historical figure. Poland is building a wall. So Poland's in a tough spot because it's in Germany's interest to have good relations with Russia so they can get cheap energy. Much of Europe is incentivized to have good relations with Russia so they can get cheap energy. But that comes at the price of Germany and much of Europe is not going to be inclined to put crippling sanctions on Russia if Russia invades Ukraine. Also, the United States and most of Western Europe doesn't have any particular interest in whether Russia invades or does not invade Ukraine. Ignoring the Richard Spencer question in your political analysis will leave you wanting. He is like the missing puzzle piece to a career worldview that's hilarious. Let's make Apollo great again. Why it's identifying more and more with Richard Spencer? I don't think so. After Richard Spencer's political reformations post 2016, he is captured by the Republican Democratic Party. Had to say who would win that rematch between Trump and Biden without figuring out who Richard Spencer would be supporting. Okay, it looks like Republicans are headed for a massive sweep in the midterm elections. If Saturn is parable, everything stays on track in 10 months and then seem to be well positioned for the 2024 presidential campaign. Who would be the most formidable Democratic candidate? Can't think of one. But if the Democrats nominate a white person to go against Donald Trump in 2024, probably all things being equal, I think the Democrats would win more later.