 Hey, this is Dan. Let's talk about BioNTech and Moderna. If you've been watching my videos, you might remember that on May 9th, I mentioned that my target for Moderna was $200 a share and BioNTech $210 a share to be reached by the end of August 2021. At the time, of course, May 9th was a Sunday, the prior Friday, May 7th, the market closed at Moderna 163 and BioNTech 183, quite a distance from my prediction. And sure enough, as of today, Moderna is now at 185. It has gone up by $22 and BioNTech closed today at $204, a lot closer to my targets. I want to give you a preview of what I'm going to predict. After I've done my analysis, I've come to the conclusion that for Moderna, I'm staying with my previous target of $200 a share and for BioNTech, I will increase my target from $210 to $230 to be reached by the end of August 2021. I will be talking about the most important news that have affected the stock prices of Moderna and BioNTech, and we'll look at the new COVID cases in the US, UK, Israel, India, and the rest of the world. I'll look into the valuation of the two companies, I'll be comparing the different vaccines available today, and then we'll go into the charts, the technical analysis. On May 5, President Joe Biden sent a short wave through the investment community, because the US government announced that it would consider supporting waving the COVID vaccine patents. A couple of days after that, the major European countries rebuffed what Biden said. They are of the opinion that waving the patents is not the best solution to the problem. They advocate aggressively licensing more drug companies to produce the most effective vaccines, such as the BioNTech vaccine and the Moderna vaccine. Actually, as of October of last year, Moderna already said that they would not enforce their COVID related patents and that they were willing to license the intellectual property for vaccine production. Therefore, waving the vaccine is really a move point for Moderna. The important thing is that it's just not the patents, but also the manufacturing know-how. A drug company just cannot easily replicate the success of Moderna or BioNTech. It takes at least 12 to 18 months through many trials and errors, and that's why the most effective way is indeed for Moderna and BioNTech to license the other drug makers to produce as much vaccine as possible in the quickest amount of time possible, especially for the developing nations. And then on May 8, it was reported that the Biden administration was having second thought about a patent wafer because they were worried about handing sensitive U.S. biopharmaceutical technology to China and Russia. And after a flurry of discussions about patent wafer, it is being very quiet in the last few days. In my own opinion, I believe patent wafer is not the solution and it's not going to be what it's going to develop. I believe Moderna and BioNTech and Pfizer will produce enough vaccines for the world quickly together with the other vaccine manufacturers, and that's exactly what these two companies are doing, and I'll provide you with more information on that. In the meanwhile, May 10, BioNTech announced that they're setting up manufacturing facilities in Singapore. That's exactly what I'm talking about. They're aggressively setting up licensing agreements around the world. India stopped their own local development of vaccine shots, and they've already signed up agreements with AstraZeneca and Sputnik to produce vaccines locally. Moderna and Novavex are ready to produce more vaccines in South Korea. South Korea also will be producing the Sputnik vaccine. In the meanwhile, the FDA authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for emergency use on adolescents. I heard Moderna will be getting the same emergency approval pretty soon for adolescents. BioNTech said they are on track to make $3 billion vaccine doses in 2021, and Pfizer expects their COVID vaccine revenue to reach $26 billion. These two numbers are pertinent, $3 billion doses for $2021 and $26 billion of revenues for 2021, and I have applied these two numbers in my updated valuation of BioNTech. I'll talk about that later on. Pfizer-BioNTech also said that they were targeting $4 billion doses of production in 2022. That's a very high number. I believe that's very believable. That's because Pfizer and BioNTech already reached an agreement with the European Commission to supply 900 million doses and additional 900 million doses. That's the total of 1.8 billion doses in 2022 and 2023. That's why I believe the total production target of $4 billion doses is very possible for 2022. In the meanwhile, Moderna says they are gearing up to make $3 billion doses in 2022, even though they are planning to produce that many doses, but I haven't seen a lot of new contracts being signed by Moderna yet. That's why I'm not revising my pricing target from Moderna at this point. This is my estimation of the coverage of vaccine doses for the entire world, primarily based on data from Statista.com. This is a table listing the different regions in the world and the different vaccines available now in the market, with exception of Novavax, because I don't believe Novavax has been approved yet, especially by EU or the United States or other leading nations. But if I add up the other columns, I see that with the announced contracts for 2021, 55% of the world population is already covered. Now, if you look at the 2022 projected production capacity, especially related to the announcement of Pfizer saying that they will be producing $4 billion doses in 2022 and Moderna saying that they will be producing $3 billion doses for 2022. That will increase the coverage for the entire world in 2022 to 87%. That's why I believe that there's really no need to waive any COVID vaccine pack. The leading companies have already geared up to supply the entire world. They are almost there, reaching 100%. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe, and notification button. This will encourage me to produce more similar videos in the future. It is also for the sake of the YouTube algorithm. Thank you very much. Let's continue. If you do a quick comparison of various vaccines, I'm not going to reach through the bullet points. You can do a screenshot of this page and look at it in more details. The bottom line is that with all the vaccines that have been approved and available in the market, Moderna and BioNTech have the best vaccines available. That's why I'm so bullish about these two companies. Let's look at the daily new cases in the United States. As we can see, the daily cases have been dropping rapidly ever since the BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have been administered in the United States. Up until this point, about 40% of the population in the United States have received a second shot, and at least 50% of people have received the first shot. We can see the very positive effect, and that's the best proof that these two vaccines indeed work very well. In the United Kingdom, more than 60% of the people have received the first shot. The drop is even more significant. In Israel, where even more people have received the vaccines, primarily the BioNTech vaccines, the daily new cases are almost at zero. At another part of the world, in India, regrettably, they have still very high case count. As of May 27, the daily new cases reached 179,000, and that's extremely high, and that's why there's a sense of urgency to get more vaccines to India. If you look at the entire world, as of May 27, there were 537,000 new cases, unfortunately. And that's why the world still need many, many more doses of vaccines to get the COVID virus under control. Let's look at analyst's opinions about the share prices of Moderna and BioNTech. As of today, the closing price of Moderna is 185,000, and my target is 200,000. Yahoo's target is 178,000. It's lower than mine. Target and Blue's never here gives them an overall A rating, tipsrank.com. Target is 231, a little bit higher than mine. Average has been increased from May 1st of 177 to 190, and the low target is unchanged at 100. And CNMoney gives them a buy rating. The high target has been decreased from 234 to 231, a very small change. The medium target has been increased from 182 to 190, and the low target has been increased from 78 to 83. If you look at BioNTech, in the last couple of months, the analyst's targets have been lagging my target by a wide margin. It seems that the analysts are finally waking up and realizing that BioNTech is worth a lot of money. Let's go through the details. As of today, the closing price for BioNTech is 204, my target has been increased from 210 to 230. The analysis has increased the target from 128 to 195. That's a big jump. When I made my projection of 210 last time, Yahoo was only at 128. There was a substantial gap. Finally, they're catching up. Blue's never here gives them an overall A rating. And then tiprank.com increased the high target from 150 to 240. Again, there's a big jump. I'm finally catching up to my numbers. The average target has been increased from 126 to 186, and the low target has been increased from 104 to 133. Actually, my valuation of BioNTech is much higher than 230 based on my calculations. At this point, I just don't want to run too far ahead of the professional analyst. But I'm pretty sure within a month or so, I will significantly increase my price target for BioNTech. And I will show you my valuation in the next few seconds. With Moderna, that's my valuation for my last video. Since that time, we heard the announcement from Moderna saying that they are targeting 3 billion doses of production for 2022. And that will triple the capacity I use for my calculation. At this point, I am being very conservative and keeping to my $200 share target. The reason why is because I haven't seen a lot of new contracts being announced yet. And that's why I'm just holding on to my old target until I've seen some additional contracts that Moderna has signed with different countries around the world. With BioNTech as a different story, we do hear a lot of very positive announcements in the last couple weeks. This is my previous evaluation published on May 1, 2021. My target was $210 a share based on these assumptions. And as of today, I'm revising my calculations. For example, the number of doses for 2022 has been revised up to 4 billion doses. However, the assumption of how many doses each person will receive instead of being two doses per person. Notice that it's been decreased to 1.5 because some of these people will be receiving a boost, a shot, just one shot during 2022, where certain people will just be receiving the injection for the first time. And that means they will receive two injections. And that's what an over-average, not two, but 1.5. And for 2023, a load at average to 1.3 shots per person. With these assumptions, you can see the stock price could be as high as $400 to $500 a share. And then it will taper off because the need for the vaccine will go down as well as competitive pressure on the price. And hopefully by that time, there will be additional drugs developed by BioNTech, which will sustain the stock price. For now, I'm just increasing my target by $20 a share to $230, just so that I'm not too far ahead of the other professional analysts. I'm pretty sure as we see more developments in the near future, I will be able to increase my target much higher. Let's look at the charts. This is a daily chart for the last six months. The bar chart is Moderna. And the yellow line is BioNTech. As you can see BioNTech is outperforming Moderna. And the broad market by a wide margin went up by 64% in the last six months, primarily because of the big contract signed with EU. And the red line is SPY. It went up only by about 16% in the last six months. And the blue line is QQQ. It went up by only about 11%. If you look at the three months chart, again, Moderna is here, went up 17%. BioNTech went up about whooping 85% whereas SPY went up by about 4%. And QQQ only 3%. And certainly BioNTech has been a great investment for me in the last couple months. If you look at the daily period closely and check out the indicators, we see this bullish buy signal from DMI about two weeks ago. And interestingly, MACD actually flashed a sell sign. Although if you look at the chart, it's still fairly bullish. We do see a overbought signal here from RSI. And sure enough, that's when the price dropped. And by the way, this big red candle is when Biden announced that he would be supporting patent waive. And that's why the market dropped so quickly. And then since then, it has recovered. Overall, we see this triangular pattern. And the big question mark is whether BioNTech will break through this pattern and start going up. If you look at the short interest ratio, we are right around here about 15%. And how does that correlate to historical price levels? We can see that whenever the short interest ratio is down to about 11%, we often hit a peak with stock price, and then it dropped after that for a few days. At this point, we're not at the bottom yet for the short interest ratio. And that's why I'm still pretty optimistic that the price will continue to pick up. Although this all-time high of $213 is going to be a very strong resistance level. As far as support and resistance, I see support at $199, which is around here. And then $193 that coincidentally is also the 20-day simple moving average, which would be a very strong support. And then $187, and then $171 here, which is a daily lower Bollinger Band. And then for resistance levels, I see $209, $212, then $215, which is the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, and then $220, which is the all-time high. Let's look at Moderna. This is the daily chart for the last six months. We can see this channel here. The key point is whether the price in the next few days will break through this upper boundary, which is near the all-time high of $189. It's going to be some pretty stiff resistance, at least for the short term. We do see that RSI is nearly overboard. We see a bullish buy signal from DMI and a bullish buy signal from MACD. Let's look at the short interest ratio. We are at about 14, which is not too low. And we see similar correlation that we saw with the BioNTech stock. Whenever the short interest ratio is down to about 11%, then the price can peak out and start dropping for the next few days. At this point, we're not that low yet. That's why I think there's still some more room for Moderna to move up. Hopefully it will overcome the resistance of the all-time high and move even higher. For support and resistance, I will have to actually use the Fibonacci extension to predict the resistance levels if the price exceeds the all-time high of $189. For support, I see $180, $171, $165, which happens to be the 20-day moving average, and $162, which is this point. And for resistance, definitely the all-time high of $189 will be a strong resistance and beyond that at $199, which is a 23.6% Fibonacci extension and $206, which is 38%, Fibonacci extension and $211, which is a 50% Fibonacci extension. Thank you very much for watching all the way to here. If you're watching this video a few days after May 28th, I'd encourage you to check into my Twitter account or subscribe to this account. Because if there's any new development, I will be tweeting update to my subscribers, that way you don't miss anything. You are welcome also to enter your comments, questions, and suggestions by way of my Twitter account. I'd like to recap that my price target for Moderna is $200 a share and BioNTech $230 a share by the end of August 2021. As for my strategies, I will buy Moderna or BioNTech when the price pulls back at the resistant points by more than 5% to 10%, which is very likely based on past patterns. And if the price drops significantly due to news events, like with the patent wafer, I will update my fundamental analysis and will post new video or send Twitter updates to my subscribers. And I will definitely not pump the stocks relentlessly just because I own these stocks. If I continue to say the stock will go up and up and I encourage you to have the diamond hand and hold on to the stocks forever, you will never believe me. As in my previous BioNTech and Moderna videos, there were times that I asked my subscribers to not buy and just wait for a little bit for bearish momentum to dissipate. And then when we see the price start turning around and show some bullish sign, then I will send out updates by way of comments or Twitter text messages to tell my subscribers that I bought more shares. At this point, I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stocks trading strategies for educational purpose only. You should make your own decision with regard to buying or selling stocks and you should probably consult with your financial advisors before you do so. This about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.