 Welcome to all of you. In this lecture, we are going to discuss the current of air news related to the current Saudi and Iran deal. So this particular news was seen in the last week and most of the commentators has been completely shocked about this development. And hence in this lecture, we'll try to understand what exactly has changed after this deal and what has been the agreement and why this is someone calling it as an historic agreement. From all these perspectives, this particular topic that we are going to discuss here is the rivalry between Saudi and Iran. This is not a new rivalry. It has been century old since the medieval time. So we are going to try to understand the basic history about why the particular conflict started at the first phase and how this conflict has evolved through different time period and why this particular agreement has been in that context considered to be a landmark agreement or to be so-called a landmark agreement. So first of all, we'll try to understand this particular thing. You can see that. So this is the headline which has been published by the Wall Street Journal and it talks about the China broker deal between Iran, Saudi Arabia and a new Middle East. This is a very again important term, a new Middle East. You already know that Middle East is an important region both strategically, both economically and both geographically. That region has a different importance and that's why that region is always in your news. You can see that after the independence or after the 1945, after the Second World War, that particular area has been induced because of its toil. There was a lot of Cold War politics going on and there was a lot of influence from the US. Along with that, China's influence is gradually growing. So all the geostrategic alignments were there. All those are breaking away and new geopolitical alignments are taking away. And that's why the Wall Street Journal calls it as a new Middle East. So first of all, we'll try to understand what was the old Middle East and then we'll try to understand how the old Middle East has been changed and we are moving towards a new Middle East. Before we go into that, we'll try to understand the basics about this whole conflict and what are the roots of this conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. So until we understand why this rivalry is and why it's important and when is this rivalry going on, we can't understand the current affairs of today. So to understand this, first of all, we'll talk about the historical context in which this rivalry has emerged. So first of all, we'll talk about why this particular division in Islam has happened. You know that Islam has two proper divisions in the sect. One is Shia Muslims and the other is Sunni Muslims. So why is this division? Why is there a different group known as Shia and why is there a different group known as Sunni? So first of all, Prophet Muhammad died in 632. He died without appointing a successor to lead Muslim community. So when he died, he did not appoint it. Which person will be leading him? This was the basic problem why there was a division taking place. Some people said that this person will be successor. Some people said that this person will be successor and for the same point of difference, one sect was Shia and the other sect was Sunni. So this triggered a debate over the succession split in the community. So first of all, we'll talk about the Sunni sect. According to them, who should have been the successor of Prophet Muhammad? So what is the basic logic of Sunni Muslims? They are opposed to political succession based on Muhammad's bloodline. Meaning they don't want a person to belong to the Muhammad's bloodline to be a successor. Bloodline means there shouldn't be any relation of blood. For example, I cannot appoint my brother as a successor. I cannot appoint my son-in-law as a successor. Meaning there shouldn't be any relation of blood. Apart from that, a person should be appointed as a successor of Prophet Muhammad. So Prophet's successor should be determined by consensus. By discussing with each other, we have to decide who will be the successor of Prophet Muhammad and successively elect three of his most trusted companions, Abu Bakr, Umar and Uthman. So these three, Sunni Islam, believe that these persons were the right successors of Prophet Muhammad because they did not have any relation, any blood relation with Prophet Muhammad. And these persons have been selected by the consensus among the Muslim scholars, Muslim people at that point of time. So the first thing you have to understand is that Sunni Muslims differ from each other. So their main difference is that they do not want a person having a blood relation with Prophet Muhammad to become the successor point A and point B. They want the successor to be elected by consensus. So these two differences, according to this, their successor line is Abu Bakr, Umar and Uthman as the leaders of the Muslim community. We will see what is the position of Shias in the next slide. For Sunnis, the authority is based on Quran and the traditions of Muhammad. Quran is the holy text of the Muslim community, so these people base their logic on them. Sunni religious scholars who are constrained by legal precedence exert far less authority over their followers than the Shia counterparts. We will see this now. Another big difference, as you know, if you look at Iran, then you have a religious leader in Iran who is called Ayatollah Khamini. Because the political setup of Iran, because there are more Shia Muslims in Iran. There is a Shia-dominated population in Iran. So the authority of the Shia-dominated population, their basis of authority is quite different as compared to the areas where Sunni Muslims live, like Saudi Arabia. So the concept of Saudi Arabia is that they follow a division. That political leader and political authority should be different from the religious authority. The religious leader of that person cannot be the political leader also. But where there are Shia Muslims, this division is not followed. Because according to them, the person who is leading you, that person should be of someone belonging to the God. So this is all about your Sunni Muslim. Next come, let's talk about the Shia Muslim. They believe that Ali and his descendants are the part of divine order. So who is the successor to Ali? And who is Ali? Ali is the prophet's first cousin and closest male blood relative. So see this is the difference, this is the difference. These persons follow the succession line on the blood relationship, unlike the Sunni Muslims. He was also married to Fatima, Muhammad's youngest daughter. Look at the relationship between the two of them. For these and other reasons, Shiaites believed that Ali was uniquely qualified to lead. So according to them, Ali was the right successor of the Prophet Muhammad. Because he belonged to that blood succession, blood relationship succession. According to that, Ali was the right candidate to lead after Prophet Muhammad. Shias believe that God always provides a guide. This is very important point because we will use it in the context of Iran. Shias believe that God always provides a guide. First, the Imam means the religious scholars who go to the mosque and pray. They are called Imam. And then Ayatollahs and the experienced Shia scholars. So this is what we will see about Ayatollah al-Khamini, the religious leaders of Iran. So this is what Shia is. The political leaders in Sunni are the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman. So that person has a very limited authority unlike the Shia counterpart. Because Shia, the dominated area of Iran, is said that whoever leads us, that person should be experienced Shia scholars. Here, when you have a division, it is not followed. And in Sunni dominated areas, this particular division is followed. So this is one of the very ideological differences. So you have to talk about the basic ideological difference between Shia and Sunni. So let me give a quick recap. Sunni means those who believe that the succession should not be someone belonging to the... should not have the blood relationship with Prophet Muhammad. And that person should be selected by consensus. And what is in Shia is that they follow blood relationship. And that is why Ali was the right candidate to lead after Prophet Muhammad. Second, wherever Sunni dominated area or Sunni Islam is, political authority or religious authority is separated there. But wherever your Shia dominated area is, they do not go with this distinction. And that's why in Iran, you see the concept of Ayatollah. And the current Islamic Revolution, after 1979, we are seeing Ayatollah Khameen. So this was the basic difference between the Shia and Sunni. So if we see the global division of Shia and Sunni, then 85% of the population in the world, out of all the Muslim population, 85% of the population are from the Sunni community. And the rest of the 15% belong to our Shia community. If we have to see the geographical distribution. So you can see this is the map of Middle East. And you can see this is Saudi Arabia. This is your Sunni majority region. And similarly, you can see here in Iran, the maximum Shia population is in Iran. And then in Iraq, your maximum Shia population is there. And similarly, there are some Shia populations in Yemen as well. You can see here, there are some Sunni populations in Yemen as well. There are Sunni populations in UAE. This is how our geographical distribution of Shia and Sunni is. So the leader of Shia is Iran, so-called leader. And the leader of Sunni is Saudi Arabia. So this is the first basic point of confrontation between these two nations, which fight for regional dominance, which fight for the ideological battle, and which fight for superiority, whether they want a Shia-led world order in Middle East or they want a Sunni-led world order in the Middle East. So this is your first root because of which you have conflict. Next. And the rest of this diagram is just for the illustration. You can see that further division in Sunni is Hanafi Shafi, and then Hanbali and then Maliki. And then in Islam, you can see in Shia, you are 12. And after that, 7. And then Zaidi, Shia and Allahvi Shia. So when we read about all the countries in the Middle East, there is its relevance, but there is not much relevance in this topic. But just you have to understand that in Shia-Sunni, further sub-divisions are also available to you. Then origin of the conflict. So this is the background first, who are Shia and who are Sunni. Now let's understand the origin of the conflict. So Sunnis dominated the first nine centuries of Islamic rule. Sunnis first, this conflict was going on from medieval age. And during the first nine centuries, Sunnis were the dominant player in this particular region until the Safavid dynasty was established in Persia in 1501. So after the Safavid dynasty, Sunni world order or Sunni-led dominance that came under a huge attack and the Safavid dynasty made Shia Islam the state religion. And over the following two centuries, they fought with the Ottomans, the seat of the Sunni candidate. So this is basically what you can see in the medieval age. So earlier the Sunni were the hegemonic power or the hegemonic player in this particular region, but it was broken down by the Safavid dynasty who established the Shia Muslim or the Shia sect as a state religion in the Persia of the modern day Iran. And after that, the confrontation was going on and on and on. And finally, with time, all these empires, Safavid dynasty, the Ottoman Empire was basically based in Turkey and that was the empire which represented the interest of the Sunni community unlike the Safavid dynasty. So with time, all these empires collapsed and finally, in Turkey and in the Saudi Arabia region all the Sunni people started living and the Shia population started living in Iran and Iraq. So this is the historical perspective in which we have to understand the current news about the Saudi-Iran conflict. This problem is not today's problem. This is the old age problem. And every period have saw intense conflict between these two particular religions for their superiority. And this is not just your religion in Islam. This particular practice has been seen in Christianity also, the conflict between Protestants and Catholics. And similarly in Hinduism also, the conflict between Brahmanical religion, Jhanism and the Buddhism or so-called Jhanism. So this particular problem of sectarian conflicts is quite seen in every religion. Iran's Islamic revolution. So this particular Islamic revolution which happened in 1979 was the game changer event which happened in the Middle East. Because when the Cold War was going on in the 1950s Saudi Arabia and Iran did not have much of a problem. Because in 1979, Muhammad Reza Pahlvi was the leader. And Muhammad Pehlwa Rezvi, this particular person was basically a western-influenced person. It did not have much of a meaning. Islamic revolutions, Shi'a superiority was established. This person was not, this person was somewhere linked to that liberal principle which best has propagated. And Saudi Arabia was also having a good relation with the U.S. because U.S. was highly dependent on the oil import from the Saudi. So till 1979, the relationship between Saudi and Iran was much better with the U.S. The thing started to become a problem after 1979. After 1979, this particular person whose name is Ayatollah Khamini. This person, see Ayatollah. Again, we were talking about what happens in Shi'a, Ayatollah. Means these persons are the versions of God. They have come in this particular place to represent the directions which has been given by the God. So here in Iran, they have a lot of importance. So in 1979, Muhammad Reza Pahlvi was removed from the power of Iran. And this is what we call the Islamic Revolution of Iran. He brought down the Iranian monarchy and turned Iran into a Shi'a Theocratic Republic. Into a Shi'a Theocratic Republic. This gave Shi'a cleric Ayatollah Rohola Khamini the opportunity to implement his vision for an Islamic government ruled by the guardianship of the jurist. That is proposed by the Sunnis. Because again, there is a difference between political authority and the religious authority. But here in Iran, when this thing happened, the Islamic Revolution happened, so Ayatollah came into power. And he had to say that now there should be no division between these two things. There is no division between these two things. The political authority has to be based on the religious authority also. So what are the Sunnis? Sunnis differentiates between political leadership and religious scholarship. Shi'a's Ayatollah have always been the guardians of the faith. So after 1979, the problem started to be Saudi. So this you have to understand the basic origin of this conflict. So this happened in the year 1979. When the Iran's Islamic Revolution happened and it overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlvi and introduced Ayatollah Khamini came to power. And he told that now there should be no division between political authority and religious authority. The politics has to be based on the basic premise of religion. And this was a huge blow to the Saudi Arabia. Because Saudi Arabia works on a completely different principle unlike the Iran. So this conflict between Shi'a and Sunnis which we saw in medieval age. The white dynasty, Ottoman Empire conflict. After 1979, this conflict started again. So when the Islamic Revolution came in Iran the biggest impact was on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has millions of parents of Sunni Islam known as Wahhabism. So one of the furthest subdivisions of the Sunni sect Wahhabism which comes from the Hanbali school the diagram we saw earlier comes from Wahhabism which is very much antagonistic to the Shi'a Islam. So when the Islamic Revolution came Saudi came to action. And the only objective of Saudi was to cut down the influence of Shi'a Islam and to spread our own influence. So now there is a battle of superiority and regional dominance that started. The formation of Iran after the Islamic Revolution induced Saudi Arabia to accelerate the propagation of Wahhabism as poor countries revived a century old sectarian revival for the interpretation of Islam. So in 1979, when the Islamic Revolution came there was a completely different political setup. A strong leader came who wanted to increase the influence of Shi'a Islam in this particular whole region. Then Saudi Arabia understood that we have to also counter that growing influence of Shi'a Islam and then again that century old rivalry came back into public imagination and because of this particular thing still Middle East, there are many such countries which are facing an existential crisis. The U.S. Pivot to Saudi. So as in 1979, Muhammad Raza Pahelbi who was a kind of a liberal person when he was overthrown obviously the relationship between the U.S. and Iran started to deteriorate. So after 1979, the U.S. Saudi had to come much more closer and the relationship between the U.S. and Iran started to decline. From 1979 to 1981, the U.S. Embassy had been hosted by 450 people in the United States Embassy. In 1988, the Iranian passenger plane got shot down. In 2002, when the famous 9-11 attack happened then President George Bush said he used the term axis of evil under which three countries were mentioned one was Iran and the other was North Korea. And then in 2000, when some opposition leaders of Iran said that Iran is developing nuclear weapons we saw a constant year of sanctions from the West, from the United Nations sanctions were imposed on Iran. But in 2015, you finally had a joint comprehensive plan of action with a nuclear agreement. You must have studied this. But finally this agreement was not able to work when Donald Trump came to power. He abandoned the deal. So the crux of the political slide is that after 1979, the relationship of U.S. and Saudi was improving and the relations of U.S. and Iran were deteriorating. And finally you can see the last year news when Kasim Soleimani a very important commander of the Iranian force was shot down by the U.S. drone attack. And after that, the relationship between the U.S. and Iran was getting worse. So this is what we are talking about in the historical context. And what was the impact of this? Since 1979, since 1979, the Islamic Revolution has come. After that, what was the impact? So when Saudi and Iran could not fight each other, then they started fighting in different countries. And at the same time, you would know that this particular period or the Cold War period started in the Middle East. So Saudi Arabia and the U.S. were the same. And they were fighting in different areas. For example, first of all in Syria, Bashar al-Assad was the president and Bashar al-Assad that person who came in power depends on only the 13% population of Shia Muslims. So in Syria, only 13% are supported by Shia. All other Sunnis are supported. But because of that 13% support, President Bashar al-Assad has been in power. So this person is supported by Iran and the second partner is the Soviet. And in the opposition of your Rebellions, who will support them? So who will support them? Saudi Arabia and West. This is where the proxy war is going on. In Yemen, the fight is between the Shia and the Sunni. You can see here there is a tribe that belongs to the Shia community. And similarly, Abdullah Saleh who is also a Shia person and this particular person was the leader of Yemen before the Arab Spring which happened in 2011. 2011 Arab Spring, what is Arab Spring? Arab Spring is basically that upwakening or uprisings of the people in that particular region who wanted to topple down the monarchical government and replace it with the democratic system. So after the Arab Spring, Abdullah Saleh was thrown out of power and his deputy whose name is Mansur Hedi was brought to power and surprisingly this person was from the Sunni community and he was supported by Saudi Arabia So in 2015 when this person came to power replacing Abdullah Saleh after that again the Houthis wanted to rebel against this person and since then again this fight is going on here. So basically this is the proxy war similarly Iran is supporting some organizations Saudi is sponsoring some organizations there is no benefit from this there is a loss for the women and children who faces the burn of all these things there is a humanitarian issue and this is the struggle of power which is the harsh reality in international politics similarly in Lebanon there is a Shia led group which is called Hezbollah and Hezbollah is Lebanese Shia militia and similarly there are Sunni Muslims which are supported by the Saudi this is what happened in Afghanistan the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan used to support Iran a lot but you know when you will read in Afghanistan how Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, West Hezbollah, Taliban Al-Qaeda, they had a lot of funding why they had funding because Al-Qaeda is a terror organization which belongs to Sunni sect which belongs to Sunni sect Salafi Zihadi's group which belongs to the Sunni sect and you get a lot of funding from Saudi Arabia similarly you know what is the condition of Afghanistan and this is the outcome of this particular great power politics similarly in Bahrain you get to see this proxy war you get to see another zone of conflict in Bahrain so these are some of the proxy wars we have not discussed in detail just trying to give you basic essence about how the things are happening in Middle East and the outcome of all this is that every day when you will read a newspaper or read a magazine you will see how many people are dying every day in the terror attacks how many people are dying because of malnutrition, how many women are being exploited how many children are losing their whole opportunity of education and other basic things so if you will do an analysis of this you can see how the people of one religion are fighting each other for what that is about regional influence or interpretation of Islam then now with the fresh tensions these tensions were coming you basically started in 2015 what happened in 2015 there was a stampede during the annual Hajj pilgrimage and you know people go to Makkah every year there so there was a huge stampede many people were killed there and this issue was told by Iran that this is how the Saudi are irresponsible people people of their own religion you don't give them basic knowledge and this is what is the state so Iran tried to politicize this issue after that what did Saudi did? Saudi Arabia cut its entire ties with Iran 4 months after the stampede in Makkah Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shia leader Nimr An Nimr a critique of the Saudi government this is again a very important flash point which happened the Saudi Arabia executed a very very important Shia scholar and this was the dead end in terms of the relationship and after that protestors in Tehran stormed into the Saudi embassy the Saudi embassy in Iran the protestors the Shia Muslim followers entered the Saudi embassy and created a lot of problems similarly Iran suspended the Hajj participation this particular thing started in medieval time after that proxy wars were going on again here for influence and finally in 2015 after this incident this relationship became more deteriorated start now let's come to the agreement the brief introduction of the brief historical perspective which you should know because with this understanding now we can understand the agreement in a much better intellectual manner so when did all this started so this agreement did not happen it basically started in 2021 Iran and Saudi Arabia hold talks at that time Baghdad was hosting this particular thing similarly in 2022 further this talks was improved and it was mediated by the Iraq and Oman but there was not much outcome after all these talks but when Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia for talks with MBS Mohammad Bil Salman after that there was a lot of urgency and finally this year we have seen that both the countries have mediated have resolved their issues because of China's mediation so what is in that agreement basically it is about the restoring of the ties and reopening the diplomatic missions in the Chinese blocals talks so reopening embassies both the countries that you closed in 2015 Iran and Saudi Arabia will open those embassies within 2 months and after that resuming trade investment and cultural records they will also start again finally Iran has said that the attack on Saudi Arabia from Yemen who is attacking in Yemen we have discussed in Yemen there is a tribe known as Hudi which is of Zaid-e-Shiaid sect and Hudis are supported by Humb by Iran and you can see in recent times Hudi was doing a lot of attacks on Saudi's critical infrastructure on this agreement we have tried to convince Hudi Iran will try to ensure that attacks on Yemen do not take place in Saudi Arabia and on the Saudi Arabia part Saudi Arabia agreed to reign in the international of Farsi news channel which is very critical against Iranian regime so that particular channel will again be blocked so there is nothing in this agreement only embassies is an initiation a start and time will only tell what is the outcome of this particular agreement at what level do you know that national security advisers as we have in India are talking on NSL level and the mediator has done a very important deployment and this is how the whole thing has been done part of larger geopolitics realignment this agreement this is not something which is happening in isolation in fact this is the agreement which is in continuation with a lot of different agreements which we have seen in the past few years starting with 2020 when UAE which is again a Sunni population it tried to normalize its relation with Israel you already know that Israel's relation with Arab country is very complicated but in 2020 UAE and Israel normalize their relations then in the same year in 2020 you know Abrahamic Accord came between Israel, UAE and Bahrain and then similarly in 2021 Indo Abrahamic Accord came which is called I2U2 or Western Accord and similarly in 2023 Saudi and Iran deal came so that's what my point is that this particular deal is not something which is happening out of the box something which is not jumped from the skies this is something which is happening as a very structural chain which is happening in a very structural domain in this particular region so we will try to understand that why this is happening but what's driving this change why are these changes happening first of all I am not going into that deal why this deal has happened between Saudi and Iran first of all we understand that this I2U2 Abrahamic Accord has come UAE and Israel have to normalize their relations so why all these things are happening the first region of this is the US Pivot to Indo-Pacific has become the major public discourse in the 21st century where the strategic competition is taking place between US and China so where is US putting all its focus in Indo-Pacific Middle East which has always been influenced by US if there was any security issue in Middle East it would have been effectively resolved but today people are raising questions about US commitment because US is now trying to get out of this particular region that's what you have seen because US's next big challenge is trying to channelize that energy so US Pivot to the Indo-Pacific has become US that Afghanistan has seriously made the Gulf countries anxious of America's commitment in this particular region so the sporadic going out of the US from Afghanistan was a serious blow to every country who is dependent on America's security because the way America went out of that region completely leaving those people under a huge crisis after that people have understood that if you have to live you have to take care of your own interest also since the Ukraine war after the Ukraine war you know that US is completely involved in the European geopolitical dilemma so because of this the US has a hegemony power the US which is the security provider of all countries today people are suspecting on US commitment because US is trying to put all its energy to compete with China that's why the countries of West Asia they are also trying to go for their own hedging deepening conflict between Arab countries and Iran so recently we have seen how Saudi-Iran relations were very problematic so similarly frightening the possibility the age of oil might be drawing to the close you also know that Middle East is one of the luckiest area because there was a lot of oil gas and because of this they have progressed a lot but eventually you know that every country is trying to shift towards renewable energy and today energy different mediums have also come so every person knows that the age of oil might come to end so now if Middle East has to move forward if they want to become economically stable so they are trying to diversify its economy by moving away from the oil exports towards boosting tourism towards boosting FDI and for this the most important thing is stability you also know that in 2030 Saudi Arabia has a vision of 2030 where Saudi has said we have to move away from oil dependence we have to focus towards tourism we have to focus towards FDI how we can save our economy and the most important thing is stability in Middle East so these are the major important drivers because of which geopolitical alignment are changing in the Middle East now let's see basically about the Saudi-Iran deal what was the compulsion to deal with Saudi? what was the compulsion to deal with Iran? so let's see what per the interest of Saudi in this particular deal so if we look at Saudi why did Saudi held this particular deal with Iran the first point is that the US-Saudi relations have taken a hit US-Saudi had a very important friendship today in recent times we are seeing that Saudi-US has had a lot of problems because of many structural reasons which we are trying to see first of all the murder of a journalist you know he was a journalist who was critical of MBS Mohammad B. Salman and it is said that the MBS of Saudi after that the liberal people had to criticize Saudi and this relationship has a lot of effect similarly Saudi Arabia is trying to get the help civil nuclear program they generate electricity Saudi Arabia has been seeking help in developing a civil nuclear program because Saudi is trying to get the nuclear energy and it needs US support but US is reluctant to give that kind of support to Saudi and that's what is annoying Saudi decided to go slow on reconciling with Israel you know that the US has fixed the relationship with Israel but Saudi is not able to normalize that relation with Israel because Saudi also considers that particular country is the leader of the Muslim world and that's why they are not interested in compromising with Israel unlike the US because the religious leadership and credentials that might be affected try to turn Saudi Arabia into a global power and make it less dependent on US that's something every country in Middle East is trying to do and then Saudi Arabia US clashed over the region of OPEC plus oil cut so you know that when this war was going on US wanted the OPEC country oil producing and exporting countries to expand its oil production but Saudi denied it because there was a lot of shortage and Saudi was told to increase oil production US said but Saudi have declined that particular I think because of that this relationship is impacted similarly economic diversification we have already done Saudi is trying to diversify its economy and Iran's challenge on rise recently, the challenge of Iran is getting expensive for Saudi Arabia which we can see in 2018 US under Trump suspended the nuclear deal of Iran because of that Iran has enriched its uranium to approximately 83% which is very close to that nuclear weapon then Saudi's oil facilities were attacked by Yemen's Houdi Rebels in 2019 and US failed to deliver anything on that particular attack so again Saudi have understood that US will not get any help if Iran's direct attack comes the Yemen Houdi Rebels have expanded their territorial control with Saudi Arabia perceives as a potential beat head for Iran and Arabian Peninsula along the vital shipping routes in the region this is the diagram of Saudi Arabia and here you can see Yemen in Yemen you can see Shia Sunni this is your Shia population this is Yemen's Shia population and this is your Sunni population so Saudi Arabia is constantly because who is here Shia is constantly attacking and recently attacks are much bigger so Saudi is afraid that if they attack Iran and Yemen and if Iran attacks then Saudi will create a problem here and if Yemen has a problem then Saudi will have a problem here in that case Saudi will become a landlocked country Saudi's secrets will not be left so this is the very big problem and Yemen's influence is increasing day by day it is posing a very important geographical challenge to Saudi Arabia political existential crisis this is also one of the crisis that Saudi Arabia is facing since Arab Spring came basically when every person was asking for a democratic system Saudi Arabia has seen a lot of these things and Saudi Arabia you can see Saudi Arabia is increasingly worried about their own grip on power Arab Spring which spread to Bahrain and Syria countries at fault lines of Islam sectarian divide in each political power is held by minority so Syria if you look at Syria then who is here President Bashar al-Assad and we have seen that Bashar al-Assad is dependent only on the Shia population and Shia is 13% similarly in Bahrain in Bahrain you have Sunni running family but there Shia is majority so the crux is that after Arab Spring there were a lot of changes so there is Sunni majority in Syria but who is leader of Shia similarly in Bahrain Sunnis are in the power but who is majority in Shia so it is possible that in Saudi which is a Shia majority country there is Sunni power so there is political crisis which is facing on domestic internal level and that is why it does not want any kind of external problem and you must know with Iran Iran is in a lot of sanctions and the economy of Iran has slowed down so Iran is trying to expand and diversify its option to other country and similarly you know that our protest for Hijab in Iran because of that there is a lot of political instability a lot of women had led that protest and you can see the foreign influence so Iran is again facing a domestic problem and that is why it does not want further external problems and it borders so because of these reasons these two countries have come together showed that level of maturity and they are able to do that strategic handshake in order to bring the stability in this particular region now what is the interest of China so if we look at the interest of China in this whole deal why China did all this first of all China had an economic interest because China is the leading part of the Saudi oil and it is the largest trading partner of Iran so it does not want relations between the two along with China's Belt and Road initiative to make that a success there will be a lot of contribution of West Asia coming to the regional interest the presence of China in West Asia is very less because this particular area has always been another dominance of U.S. so as much as your David agreement is there between Israel, Oslo Accord Israel or Palestinian Liberation in all the organizations in all peace deal who was the broker, it was the U.S. China was completely absent in this particular region but that is now being changing China wants to increase presence in this geopolitically geostrategically economic area so regional interest is done means to increase our interest soft power this is again a very important objective that China is trying to see for example if you want to become a hegemen U.S. has always been a hegemen after the Cold War so if you want to become a hegemen so the other people also needs to accept that you are a hegemen so for a hegemen you have to act something you have to show people that my hegemony is not antidote to your existence you have to ensure that trust among the people so like China is rising China wants that other countries should also trust other countries should not think that China's rise will pose an existential crisis to them and hence China is trying to give the slogan that I am trying to build a community of shared destiny China is going to build a community of shared destiny when U.S. are busy rallying the western world to arm Ukraine to push Russia and we can also do sanctions China is quietly brokering peace in the global south when U.S. is involved in the war what I am doing I am trying to bring peace in the global south Beijing sati sat enjoys good relations with Tehran Iran and Saudi which reflect its neutral posture unlike the political posture of U.S. then regional leaders have also noted that China which maintains a policy of non-interference in other countries affairs, Beijing last month introduced a peace plan for Ukraine China is growing economically economically and also China is also trying to expand its soft power because to be a hegemen other countries to trust you and that's what by this particular thing China is trying to say that boss I am not here to fight unlike U.S. I am trying to make a plan which can ensure peace at the regional as well as the global level okay what has been the response of U.S. so U.S. abhi kaafi zada shock me hai U.S. has not express anything that you know what it intends but kaafi zada shock me hai U.S. because U.S. ko pata bhi thayi sab thayi chal rithi thayi although saudi raan naal re U.S. ko apna zada focus China but because this deal has happened made by China to wo kaafi zada aap ka problem create kar rahi so it remains unclear what this means for United States yeh pata nahi abhi the time will only say ki what is happening but yeh baat toh sure hai ki Middle East ka countries ab U.S. ka dominance se bahar nikalke new partners ki talash me hai because they know that America's commitment ab kaafi zada aur jabse Afghanistan hoa hai jabse Ukraine hoa hai uske baat people have realized that now we cannot no longer be dependent upon the security cover provided by U.S. we have to fight for our self-survival and that's why this particular thing is happening then four key takeaways jo agar sko summarize kar hai this particular is a very important scholar Miller toh ino ne tal likha tha apne magazine foreign policy mein ono ne basicalin cheezo ko summarize kar ke jab pe he has given four key takeaways in this particular thing no coming of golden age at saudi area relations asa nahi ki normalize ho chuk hai toh heaven will fall in this earth the relationship has just initiated so we should not be too much optimistic about this only the time will tell what this happens the Biden administration was left on the sidelines to yeh baat toh clear hai ki Biden administration bo kada hi nita yeh sab cheezi tal rahi hai so that shows ki U.S. ki hegemeni a terminal decline ki tal rahi hai a modest win for china although the time will say that whether this brokered peace deal works or not but still it's a huge you know geopolitical or foreign policy mein success man sakte esti sko and the region influx that means the middle east as a region is constantly changing lastly we will try to understand that what has been the impact on the India indias ka perspective kya hai toh India ke liye it's a kind of a win as well as it's kind of a loose situation so India ne abhi ko e formally react lehi kya hai ispore cheezo ko leke but for sure Pakistan ko it's deez se khayda ho sakta hai wo amnog dekhin ke kis tarike se so deko ek JNU ke professor hai aur nene apne Hindu ke article mein likha ki why Saudi Iranian normalization is good news it's a good news because it's anyway Saudi is a good partner to India and Iran is also a good partner to India we have already built Chabahar port and other things so there's nothing problem in that but the problem is that China being the midwife for the South law because this particular deal a US broker deal hota India would have been happy abhi tak our formal announcement hojata but still India is also under that trap how did China did this particular whole thing however it is opportunity for India to rework its priorities and pay serious attention to regional developments rather than be surprised by the developments so India has to again figure it out how it has to react in this particular chain circumstances but see this is the problem some analysts say that the focus of India on I2U2 quantum electron that is India, Israel, UAE and Iraq Israel, USA, UAE which may have taken the spotlight away from its ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia so the entire focus of India was on I2U2 first and second you know that India has closed all oil purchase with Iran after the threat of American sanctions because of that India-Iran relation is very weak and because of the focus of I2U2 India's attention towards Saudi was also getting less and because of this some people say that Saudi crown prince who was going to visit India did not come and recently Rai Seena dialogue conducted by ORF our participation in Iran was also not there so that shows that India's relation with Iran and Saudi Arabia is quite declined India has expanded its you know interest in Southeast Asia but the relationship with Saudi and Iran is facing that test of time and in this context this deal is all the good but to some point it can also create a problem for India similarly the global peacemaker India will also watch this closely to see Beijing is taking its new role as a peacemaker so that's obviously that China has expressed that it's ready to take the global leadership it will not just sit on the fence it will try to deliver on the prices which the world is facing finally we can conclude by saying that again the professor who has written an article in Hindu professor from GNU he says that Saudi Iran normalization is different from the reconciliation it's just an initiation we have to wait and watch how the things will figure it out but in general if this cold peace be there between Iran and Saudi Arabia so that's a great news for the south that particular region where your Syria, Lebanon and Iraq and all other regions where the humanitarian crisis is happening it can stop you so everyone hope that this thing works and lastly if you have to ask for my take on this particular whole issue so I have concluded in four things that eventually we are moving towards a multipolar world order so you know that in 1950s at the time of we were having a bipolar world order then after the collapse of soviet union the world entered into a unipolar world order and since 2008 global financial crisis when the rise of china along with other countries have happened we are moving towards a multipolar world order so in this multipolar world order the problem is that multipolar world order is quite unpredictable you don't know who is going to listen what, who is going to follow what because everyone thinks that yes I have many options to explore and that's why it causes a lot of trouble so when you have multipolar world order but you do not have an effective multipolar working institutions like united nations or any other multipolar bodies then the whole crisis comes so this is happening in your current geopolitics because if you analyze international politics then it's completely messed up everything is happening very much randomly and hence every country is trying to go for hedging every country is trying to go for self-survival leaving their traditional friendship and becoming new friends leaving old enemies and becoming new enemies because every country has to see their own security there's no US, there's no united nations who is going to help them so this is my first take, this is a very predictable outcome which the world can expect out of a multipolar world order the second important take is that collective security has come already the collective security has been quite out of imagination for everyone but since Ukraine the collective security has become a dead letter and now there's no point of united nations ensuring the security of the any country third important take away from this is that since pandemic in every country economic problems are increasing and whenever economic problems are increasing that means slow down inflation political instability is also coming so even for Saudi, Iran, India US, in every country stability rise of right-wing politics populism, xenophobia, all these things are on rise and hence every country is trying to go for political stability and that's why they do not want any other challenge which is coming at the borders and finally the fourth take from my side is that 2023 is going to be a very important year for the international politics Pohat Sada, how the conflict in Europe expands, how the issue of Taiwan gets resolved and how the effect of climate change how the effect of pandemic and other things figure it out and that's why we are living in an age which Nehru has at one point of time said in respect to nuclear weapon that we are living in an age of nervous state of peace that abhi toh shanti hai but pata nahi ye shanti kapta rahe ghi so these are my four take aways with that I hope that kafi zada in depth analysis aapko mile aur aap in perspectives ko kafi aachhese samatsakko and then you can write a good answer if the question comes in the examination so I hope you like this lecture please like and subscribe to this channel thank you don't forget to like share and subscribe to our channel and press the bell icon to never miss an update