 Okay, traders, that's 2pm UK time. If you can hear me and you can see my screen, you type a Y in the chat box. So I know we are good to get going. A Y in the chat box, if you can hear me, testing audio, one, two, three. Good stuff, thanks very much. Okay, before we jump into today's charts and setups, want to just quickly hit the wrist display. Most importantly for today's session, the views expressed by me today are solely mine. They're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. And for those of you who are here for the first time, a briefing introduction to myself, my name is Patrick Mullily. After I graduated from King's College London, I went on to join a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. So I had a pretty much a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market. It's quite literally at times of the night. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets, had some capital to play with and some time on my hands. So I started day trading the S&P 500 or more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginner's luck, I racked up some solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit to my personal capital. So this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years, it was a period during which I helped not just my technical gain in terms of developing a strategy that crucially suits my personality, back testing and forward testing. All of this was underpinned by a rigorous risk management strategy. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mentor game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being in a numbers game in which you're simply playing with probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered annual profit, has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. From 2013, I have also been managing the investor capital through a managed account service, again, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I have mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for Tick Mill, exclusively providing market and trade analysis. You can access that through their blog. You can actually sign up to get my daily market outlook. I also produced daily technical videos showing setups that I'm tracking in the markets and you can access those either through my LinkedIn feed or through my Instagram account there, Patrick Manley FX. And I guess lastly, the other passion project for me is leading trading education for a premier trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent at FXcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. If you want to get in touch or learn more about what we're doing at FXcareerswap, you can call the trade desk in London or drop the team an email and they'll come back to you with more information. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Let's jump into today's charts and I want to start with a quick look at the S&P 500 on the weekly time frame. Now, I highlighted last week that we are coming into a very pivotal period to my mind anyway for the S&P 500. The time sequence or time series here suggests that from our March low last year, the S&P has tended to top out at least in the interim. Again, I'm not calling for at the end of the world here. I'm just looking for a tradable corrective pattern. The S&P has tended to top out in 24 week cycles. Now, I also note that we are trading into the trend line resistance from the 2016 low which we held in 2018 and we are sitting right at the moment on a third test. Now, for those of you who are familiar with my work, third tests of the trend line now pay very close attention to. We've also got this ascending trend line which we are moving into as well and we've got this time sequence and we're sitting right on the momentum support here with significant divergence in place. So there are a bunch of factors here at the moment that lead me to think that we could see at least a corrective phase of probably two to three weeks. Seasonally, August has tended to be a period, or sorry, late July to August has tended to be a period where we see a bit of an uptick in volatility and that tends to drive a reduction in risk sentiment and that's what I'm looking to play for at the moment. So for you to take that onto the daily timeframe, for those of you who are following me through the Facebook channels, we'll know that I've got a short position running in the E-mini S&P. This is the S&P standard contract here and I was looking or certainly we talked last week about the potential of getting another leg higher to pin this ascending trend line in this wedge that we've been developing over the past year and a half, but it looks at the moment like we're seeing a bit of weakness step in. So I wanna pay very close attention today to the price action. Certainly we want to see if we can get through this trend line support here, which we're sitting on right at the moment. So any move through 43.42 over downside could set up certainly a test down into the 42.87 and potentially these prior highs, monthly pivot and ascending trend line support 42.60 area. So really key day to day, we've got options expiration tomorrow that tends to add a bit of volatility as a bunch of options contracts roll off and like I say, we're heading into a period here where I think we couldn't see a correction develop. So if we take a look at the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ getting a few tails here suggesting some distribution or some supply at the current levels. So we're struggling here at 15,000. I still would ideally like to see a test of a third test of this ascending trend line resistance to complete this sequence. But it may be now that we pull back here into the pivot at 14,700 and get that final advance potentially into tomorrow or the beginning of next week before we then we could then see a more significant corrective move develop. But again, pay attention to these trend lines. If we take out trend line support here at 14,700, it may be that we have our fifth wave already in place. You can see again, we've got this really prominent momentum divergence here. So what could be the minimum requirements if we... Let me just jump onto a four-hour chart here. Let's pull up the NASDAQ and the second guys. So we have... If this is gonna be our three-four here, third wave high, fourth wave, we should hold trend line here. Just extend that up. There we go. So if this is our fifth wave, what I'm always looking for in a fifth wave completion or potential completion as an additional confirmation is that we at least test the 127 extension of the potential wave four. It's a minimum upside objective. So if we get that test, and we have tested it here pretty much to the tick at 14,986, and again, the other confirmation that I'm always looking for if I'm gonna be playing counter-trend is that momentum divergence which we've got nicely there. So this has met the minimum requirements here to be a wave five sequence that's completed. So like I say, watch for a breach of the trend line. Ideally, what I'd be looking for here would be this type of pattern. So we get it down in here and then pull back to retest the trend line from below and then that should set up the wave, the next wave to the downside. Certainly we can think about three wave correction and minimum objectives for that are going to be the 38.2% retracement of the prior sequence. So open this back down into 14,200 as a minimum downside objective. So just something to keep in mind there on the NASDAQ, let's go back to the daily charts, the Dow, also struggling now. What the Dow has done here is it's retested, it's broken trend line support. This is from the pandemic lows here last March and we're checking back now the underside potential double top in play here. And what do we wanna see when we're looking at those type of patterns, momentum divergence. So it could be that we're not going to see another high here in the Dow now and we are going to look for a rollover from current levels. So let's look at technically where we can start to think about primary locations for short position. So you can see we're kind of in this wedge now using the underside of the prior trend line support. So any break really of the pivot here, 34,597 is an opportunity to my mind anyway to get in on the short side. And I've been looking as an initial downside objective into this 33,000 level and third test of this trend line internal trend line there is what I've been paying attention to in the Dow. DAX was looking ideally for it to get a third test of this ascending trend line doesn't look like we're getting well potentially we're not gonna see that now. So if the DAX takes out the pivot here at 15,559 then the next downside objective is gonna be 15,132. Nikkei, the weakest of the indexes that I track here hasn't, I was looking for a test of this ascending trend line resistance but looking shaky at the moment. And so the Nikkei could potentially have topped out here and then what we'll be looking for is a move down to test this descending trend line projected descending trend line support. First up will be the equal legs versus this swing structure. Let me just put it in there so you can see what I mean. So we've got this leg, this leg and this leg and potentially then an extension down to this 25,500 in this descending pattern here. So that's what I'm watching the Nikkei, the VIX. That's the other trade that I've got on at the moment as well as being short the E-mini S&Ps. The VIX is obviously the volatility indicator level of insurance in the market, so to speak. And we've got down sub 15 and you can see similar to the summer of 2020. We made an initial spike down end of July and then we rotated but held this every time we tested the trend line we popped back above it. And so similar pattern here potentially developing. We could see another test of the 15 but I've got some positions running in the VIX. And what I'm ultimately looking for is a spike up to take out the 22 handle and ultimately see a test of 28 is where my target is for the VIX there. So jump into some of these forex instruments and this is the equal weight of dollar index. There's quite an interesting pattern developing in a bunch of these using the pitchfork. I don't know how experienced any of you are in terms of using this tool but it is a nice training instrument when you get a bunch of confirmations. And I think that's what we're seeing here in terms of the forex market certainly. So whilst we hold this swing high I'm looking for a test of 118.30. If we take that out, if we continue to find support for this internal trend line or parallel then what we can think about is a move up into the projected target zone before we see another corrective leg here in terms of the equal weight of dollar index. So this is the dollar index versus the Aussie, the Euro, the yen and sterling trades a little bit differently to the broader dollar index. And we'll take a look at that in a second but certainly if we take out these highs then we look for an extension up into this target zone with the dollar, probably a bit of strength here. And so again, in terms of the dollar if we are gonna see a bit of a wobble here in terms of risk sentiment that should lead to some more dollar strength here. Let's take a look at the equal weighted dollar index. Again, I've applied the pitchfork here. So we're trading in this channel here you can see it's held nicely. I was looking for a pullback to test this support zone for trading up into the 93.74 which is the equal legs of this swing structure. And I've got some Elliot wave notes on here as well but that's what we're looking for ultimately is a move up into 93.74. Then through there we've got the yearly pivots at 94.10 and I would expect to see some profit taking or the potential that we can please a higher time train wave four sequence but we'll play it step by step here and just watch price actually develop. But at the moment we're holding the weekly pivot here and finding some strength as these you can see the equity markets all red at the moment and that's why we're seeing bid into the dollar at this stage. 10 year yield. We got the pop from the equal legs objective and so versus this structure here I was looking for a move ideally into get a test of this descending trend line resistance for getting down to test the yearly pivot. Obviously we've had Fred Chair Powell are up on the hill in the US with these testimony to the US Congress yesterday and the Senate today. And he continues to fashion the tone of someone who believes in the transitory nature of the current spike in inflation. And so markets are repricing at the moment with respect to rate expectations. And so as long as he continues to make that dovish keep that dovish tone I should see pressure on the yields here but we're going to get to a phase where it's going to become very apparent that either this inflation isn't transitory and if it isn't then they're fed again have to act and act pretty rapidly I think to catch up with the inflation we're seeing. So we'll see how this one develops but obviously as we see weight in terms of the yields more often than not that correlates with weakness in the dollar but at the moment we're seeing the dollar supported for now. So keep an eye on this 10 year yield it's canary in the proverbial column I'd speak and so I'm paying close attention to that. Gold. So gold has made a nice advance here again I've applied a pitchfork what I'd really like to see now with gold I don't know if we'll get it but potentially here as we hold this resistance is a pullback into this 1779 area and if we get that or we could extend into the lower parallel here 1765 but anything in this zone here with a bullish reversal pattern I think is a nice setup in terms of gold and when you buy this initial retest of the lower parallel the immediate target for that is the median point of the pitchfork and if we can get through there then you're targeting the top side obviously but again step by step don't get ahead of yourself but we could see a nice setup here in gold in terms of if we can get this pullback into this zone here this is where I'd be looking for long positions in gold I think we could get a nice run. So keep an eye on this area here in gold 1760 to 1780 is the zone that I'd be paying attention to on the long side and again what's going to drive this move well if we get an interim bit of strength here in the dollar then we get that pullback into this zone watch from bullish reversal patterns and I think it's off to the races. Silver sitting in its triangle still again with silver here what I've been watching is any more tests into this 2560 area as long as we've got bullish momentum then we could see a test of the triangle resistance and ultimately then what we'd look for is then we should be one more test of support before reaching the triangle potentially to the outside here so not active in silver at the moment I prefer the gold setup but I will certainly pay attention to any tests into this 2560 and any test of 27 that holds and that last pullback into the apex of the triangle is a high probability play for a continuation to the upside equally if we take out the trend line support then we can start to think about downside targets and what I'm always looking for is the quality of objectives so if we do take out that support then we can look for and move down 2293 is an equal legs move versus this structure and it also brings us into range support what has technically been range support because we can't frame the price action in terms of silver at the moment as say it's just trading in this much bigger range here and that would set up a nice test of range support before then we could be looking again on the long side but my immediate focus is going to be on this triangle pattern in terms of silver crude oil so we've been tracking the tests of the standing trend line resistance we're now looking at testing this internal trend line support so if we get a close through 71, 20 I think we will trade 66, 50s this trend line support here and potentially extend into the major trend line support at 6390 from the pandemic lows there but I think that then will set up a buying opportunity and we can certainly start to think about testing the top side of this projected ascending trend line resistance we also have the 127 extension of that dive into those lows last March so paying attention to a break of the support here short positions into test this pivotal support zone and then we could be looking again on the long side copper, I think we've got anything waiting for a test of the trend line here off the pandemic lows would be a third test so obviously I want to pay a lot of attention to how we trade when we look at that 4.0984 level let's speed up a little bit here Bitcoin still to my mind is consolidating and we should see another leg load in terms of Bitcoin I'm really keen to see if we can get the test of the yearly pivot then that could present a decent long opportunity let's just have a look here 3.00 yen whilst it holds that trend line resistance point we can think about an equal legs objective at 10850s so through 109 you can play for a nice quick test of 10850 let's take a look at the swissie swissie I'll put the pitchfork on here this one could be setting up as well so what I want to see here with the swissie is is just get that test here of this lower trend line so any move into 1990 should set up a nice long opportunity to play for the midpoint here up into 9550s or certainly we can think about the current resistance 9468 so that's going to be an area I'm paying close attention to 1995 in terms of the swissie euro looking now as we hold the pivot here 11850s for a break of 11775 down into the prior lows 11770 and then the equal legs objective puts us down into the 1622 support zone and certainly from there and we've got that descending trend line support from there I'd be paying very close attention to how we trade because that could put in a significant low there in terms of the euro and we could be setting up for the next leg to the other side, which are the other ones so the Aussie sitting right at the equal legs that we've been tracking bids have emerged here but we're in a pretty much in a consolidation zone and really until we can get through the 75 handle that should set up a test then of 76 and this descending trend channel using the pitchfork again and we'll see how prices respond. If we fail at 7417 then the next support comes down into monthly range support 73 to 7320 Kiwi He was at an interesting point as well. Obviously the Reserve Bank of New Zealand came out a little bit more hawkish but we're actually sitting at this pitchfork resistance here so any failure here would be an opportunity on the short side to play for the equal legs target the Aussie has tested its equal legs but the Kiwi has yet to do that and so we can be thinking about a test of 68 markets obviously got pretty pulled up after that meeting but we'll have to see how it plays out. If we take out this trend line then we can think about the long side certainly into 7190s on the upside. Swiss Yen is one that is getting interesting as well. If we get a move into support here at 118.68 I wanna be thinking about long positions certainly retest prior highs 122.7 to four. Cad Yen again, we've got a nice trend line test coming up a third test here at 87.18. If we get that and I mean find some support here then I think we can start to think about this trend line up into 94.50s as once we get through these prior highs at 91.15. So this is one I'm monitoring closely. Sterling, got a bit of a pop here today but I wanna be long sterling through 139 looking for a test of 140.30 and then from there I think we'll see if we get these bearish reversal patterns from the parallel and then we can start to think about the equality objective versus this swing structure at 136.65 and that will be a key decision point then as if we are going to see another leg higher in terms of sterling. Okay, so I've been running there for about 30 minutes. Those are the key setups that I'm watching at the moment. I mean really my focus is broadly at this stage on these equity markets. July for forex tends to be extremely choppy. So my main trading vehicles at the moment are in these equity industries and the VIX but I'm watching the dollar and a few of these yen pairs as well and the swissie and gold certainly of interest. So keeping an eye on those over the coming sessions. So I'll just, I'll open up a quick Q and A here. Does anyone have any questions or a chart they'd like me to take a look at that I haven't covered? Equally what's helpful for me if you don't have a question if you type an N in the chat box. So I know we're all on the same page and I can potentially wrap this up Q and A question. Okay, which platform are you using for this chart analysis? I'm using Trading View. You can see there tradingview.com is the platform I use. Any other questions? An N in the chat box if you don't have a question. Okay, I can't see any questions, any other questions coming through. So which platform should we use to trade? The Tick Mill platform, you can use the MT4 platform or they have a web trader, Ruth. Okay, thanks very much everyone for your time and I hope you found this useful and we will reconvene at the same time next week. Thanks very much everyone, have a great weekend.