 So the best understanding of this I mean this this is I think Nassim Taleb said that Dan Kahneman's book thinking fast and slow. He actually said this is a book that's on the level of Tom or Adam Smith's theory of moral sentiments or I think he said Freud's Freud's work. I mean he's very very serious. This is a Nobel Prize winning economist This book, you know Taleb said it probably ought to win a Pulitzer Prize I think he's probably right it didn't end up in winning the Pulitzer but it's it's a really really good book Probably the best book on this problem that is out there today Kahneman basically innovated along with his his colleague Amos Tversky who's now dead but back in the 70s they innovated all of this stuff about about cognitive bias and thinking And how to do it now Kahneman in this book presents what he calls the two systems model Okay, and this is basically what I'm talking about with the the two ways that you can forget about the auto regulation of the brain That's primarily what the brains work once you start thinking. There's really two systems. He says that you can think through There's an intuitive automatic system what he calls system one. This is the the habits of thought Right. This is the automatic processing of information in a way that makes sense that you've done before that you understand That you can get through very very easily Now this can be both expert or just purely heuristic based so experts as you know famous story about chess players You ask a master chess player to assess the moves on a board. You can pull a board out It's got all the chess pieces put into different places and you say okay Take a look you give them like five seconds boom you take the board away And they can tell you basically how the game is going to go. They're experts They can see very quickly and assess the situation think seven moves ahead or whatever it is and Figure out how to play that game you show it to an amateur or somebody who barely has played chess in years like me And I'm gonna say There's some pieces on the board right so I might have a heuristic. I might be able to just see yeah It looks like I should move my knight No better reason than I think I should system to the other kind of thinking that Conerman talks about is deliberative Effortful, it's the kind of thinking when you think about actual hard focus Bringing your mind into a state of conscious focus on problem-solving Okay, now the key here That Conerman points out and I think that is really at the root of his book is that you have to know when to use which You cannot just say oh, I'm gonna be perfectly rational. I'm just going to use system to all the time I'm going to deliberate with the same conscious effort about whether to order the steak or the chicken as I do about whether to Engage in a whole lifelong process of choosing this career or that career you cannot do that you have to develop these kinds of Systems and be very confident about these systems. So the question is if you have this automatic system Where your brain has this intuitive sense where you just give answers How do you make sure that you're not short-circuiting yourself? Well, the answer is as I said knowing which is which so let's take an example from Conerman's book So if I select at random from a representative sample of Americans a man to describe his neighbor and the man describes his neighbor Steve is very shy and withdrawn Invariably helpful, but with little interest in people or the world of reality. He's a meek and tidy soul He has a need for order and structure and he has a passion for detail Okay, question is is Steve more likely a farmer or a librarian? Okay, think about that for a second. Guess what the answer is some of you I mean at least if Conerman's right a lot of you are thinking. Oh, that sounds like a librarian But guess what? male farmers outnumber male librarians in the United States by 20 to 1 You'd be very poorly advised to judge just because of these characteristics that this guy is more likely a Librarian than a farmer far more likely even if you don't know anything about him is Steve more likely a farmer or a librarian Well, he's a guy 20 times more guys doing farming than librarian work more likely 20 to 1 that he's a librarian This is what he calls the representativeness bias or the simplifying heuristic If you tend to simplify things into categories that give you those automatic answers You're going to often be misled by your thinking you're going to easily be seduced into that process of Identifying what you already know in a way that conforms to a certain belief of what you think is representative Let's take another example. This one's this one's a fun one convention returning speaker from Austin, Texas 2012 and actually Anthony Johnson the CEO of the 21 convention said it's one of his favorite speeches The Austin, Texas one and let's hope this one is to Eric Daniels. Let's do it. All right All right, guys, hopefully hopefully you're fully caffeinated ready to go the two systems model Okay, and this is basically what I'm talking about with the the two ways that you can forget about the auto regulation of the brain That's primarily what the brains for once you start thinking there's really two systems. He says that you can think Incredibly incredibly distorting. So one of these is the illusion of precision It had this result and therefore it's going to apply to this group Right, you see this all the time and not the least of which is mice or you know lab rats or whatever comparing to humans But even different groups of humans with different ages different profiles, etc Prince businesses degrade businesses publish this book claim that he understood everything that the CEOs and leadership teams did to make them great Publish the book made lots of money and guess what?