 Okay, traders, that is 1pm, Greenwich, meantime, and we are about to get going here with this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. Before we jump into today's presentation, as always, I want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent today's presentation is the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Those of you here for the first time, brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriate at that stage, day gambling. And after some early beginner's luck, I actually racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out. And as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. So this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with this mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I had not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, sensing back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly though, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make for the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which we're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcomes of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. In addition to fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert, exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tick-Mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups through the Tick-Mill TradingView account and I'll post a link for that at the end of this presentation. I also run Tick-Mill's E-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market thoughts for the cash trading session ahead. I give my bias for the day and my specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 5,000 points of profit since we started the group in April 2021. The second Tick-Mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The Tick-Mill Futures Telegram group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York where traders can essentially see in real-time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional, consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. That gives you a flavour of where it is. I'm coming from now. Let's jump into the charts. What I would say before I get going with the charts here is I'm going to run through the charts that I'm tracking at the moment and set up some I'm watching. If you have any questions just drop them into the chat box and at the end of the session I'll come back to those. If you have an instrument you'd like me to take a look at, I don't cover in my slide deck here. You can also put that into the chat and I'll give you a view on that. I would say today I'm a little bit time constrained because I want to be off at least 10 minutes before the CPI release as I'm obviously going to be looking to trade that myself today and trade the market reaction. I want to get prepped for that. We're going to try and keep this to 20 minutes today. Starting with the SM500, two competing setups here. The bullish thesis is versus this 3700 level. We're sitting right at trend line support here at the 3750s. If we can hold here and get a breakthrough back through 3840s then that's going to give a bullish impetus to the trade for a break back through 3870s to retarget the prior highs here 3925s. The ultimate objective versus the current setup and I'll just draw this so you understand what I'm talking about I'll repeat this throughout the presentation. I'm looking for an equality objective versus this swing structure which gives us a target level now of 4128s. Now if we don't, if the CPI print comes out on the hot slide today and that gives further cover to the Fed obviously to ramp up the rates we will see a negative reaction. I've been looking for any break of the key level for me on the downside today is 3996. Keep that level in mind. If we get a breakthrough there then the next downside objective versus the swing structure here and equality objective will be 3642. So any break of 3696 today I will be looking to be sure and I'll be targeting initially 3642 as the next downside objective. Moving to the NASDAQ. So we're sitting again NASDAQ is sitting at some pivotal support. NASDAQ has been the weakest of all the equity indexes obviously it being a duration asset so you the investment in a lot of these tech firms is that the hope is down the line that we're delivering revenues etc and with obviously fiscal conditions tightening they don't have access to that capital and that's been weighing on the stock prices so the NASDAQ has been the weakest of all the equity indexes. So from a technical perspective at the moment versus the swing level here at 10641 we have an equality objective above us at 11878. For me I'd really want to see a close back through this high volume node 11128 to get a confirmation signal that we're likely to trade up into this target zone. If today we again it's going to be pretty much dependent upon this inflation print but if certainly if we start to take out the invalidation level here 10641 my focus then would be on the downside and we would be thinking about a move towards 10,000 on the downside. So that's those the key levels in terms of the NASDAQ. Dow Jones has been the outperformer in terms of US equity indexes and the reason for that as I mentioned last week is this is where the value plays are so growth is in tech and the value safety, utilities, health care, financials etc are in the downs that's why it's been a relative outperformer, relative strength we're seeing in the down. What I'm looking for now is any pull back into the trend channel support here 32,000 watch for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side. I've got a target on the upside 33,800 equally any close back through this trend channel resistance this internal trend channel resistance would be a bullish confirmation for me as well. So close back through 33,000 again same target on the upside 33,800 at this stage it would take a close back through 31,745 which would be a bearish development and then we would be starting to think about downside objectives but for now the impetus here whilst we hold this support zone 32,000 is for 33,800 test. Russell small caps again relative weakness we're seeing here in terms of the Russell so versus the resistance at 1796 I'm looking for a test of 1721 if we take that out on a closing basis the next downside objective for the Russell here on the weekly versus the swing structure and the quality objective is 1575 no worthy the Russell is the only index out of the US indices not to have tested it's a quality objective all the others have moving to Germany. Dax has been a relative out performer and what we are seeing here at the moment is the potential now for any move that tests and holds 13,474 I'm looking for the next leg to the upside to target 14,000 from there I'd anticipate we get another pullback equal to let me just draw this in here so you can see what I'm talking about in terms of the wave structure we have wave one two potential wave three here into 14,000 I've been looking for wave four back into 13,300 and then we get a final fifth wave extension towards 14,200 and then from there I would anticipate we see a deeper corrective move so for now the focus is really on this 13,453 if we take that out then I would anticipate that this is actually our wave three high and we have a wave four equality objective to the downside at 13,000 when I talk about the equality objective I'm referencing this symmetry swing here in terms of our the scope and scale of our wave two overlay versus our potential wave three high so that's what we're tracking in terms of the Dax there the Nikkei traded up into the target zone we're now getting a pullback and it is sitting at pivotal support so the Nikkei you can get a close back through 27,500 I've abolished the Nikkei looking for an upside objective now into 28,200 it would really take a loss of the high volume node here 27,000 to suggest that we're done on the upside for now and we'd be thinking about a test down into trend challenge support 26,400 the nifty the indeed the nifty here this has got an interesting technical setup here this is one of the few equity indexes to actually make new highs this year so with the Nikkei with the nifty here any pullback into the 17,848 I've been watching for bullish reversal patterns there and we have a five equals one objective and a one two seven extension versus our last corrective leg which gives us an upside objective just below 18,500 so 17,840 area what's bullish reversal patterns gives us a target there 18,500 TLT the iShares 20 year treasury bond ETF got a setup here that's developing obviously it's going to be very dependent upon the inflation data today but if the inflation data comes in in line or a little bit weaker than expected we could see an upside extension here we've got a target versus the swing low the invalidation level is 93,30 and that gives us a 99,19 target on the upside if inflation comes in hotter money's going to be coming out of the out of the bonds and obviously raising yields so we'd anticipate then that our next downside objective is 90,26 on the downside again I've watched for bullish reversal patterns there as long as we maintain momentum divergence and we can see another corrective leg to the upside moving to the FX phase dollar index has it tested or came just shy of last week's equality objective which was the 109 level now seeing a corrective move here I'm looking for a rejection into the 111,30 111,50 area to set up the next leg to the downside we have a new equality objective versus the swing setup which gives us a test of 107,72 this stage any close back through or above 113 would be a bullish development we would then be looking for an upside extension into the next targets on the upside are as high now as 118 but we have so far managed to maintain that that resistance at 113,85 so that's a key level on the upside to bear in mind but again this is going to be very dependent today on the inflation data we can expect some volatility there but we have our invalidation level set up and we have our target levels euro we've got a new upside objective in terms of the euro versus the swing low here at 97,29 I'm looking for a test of 102,84 we've got a little internal equality objective that's been tested here 99,40 we're finding a little bit of demand coming in again though this one's going to be very dependent on the on the inflation data but certainly any move back through the 10,040 would be bullish and we'll encourage a test up into this 102,80s target zone sterling similar setup here we have this trend line support coming in so I'm looking for selling to ultimately test and hold just below 113 and if we get that the next upside objective is going to be this ascending trend line resistance that comes in 117,65 we have an ultimate target level up at 120 versus the swing low here at the 109,20s Dolly Yen got the breakdown through that 146 area we've now snapped back to test resistance here the 147 as long as 147 holds we have a downside objective at 143,26 which is the equality objective here versus the swing structure after the last leg of intervention from the BOJ this stage any close backs above this internal trend channel resistance so 147,60s would suggest that we're in a range trade I think then and we could think about a move certainly back up into the 148,85s and then potentially into the invalidation level 149,70s Euro Yen Pay close attention to 145,20s if we hold there and get a bullish reversal pattern as the potential that would extend higher again and take out this trend channel resistance 146,70s however if we don't find demand here at 145,20s currently have a downside objective in terms of the Euro Yen and this swing structure here the equality objective gives us a downside target of 143,16s so watch for any break of that 145,20, 145 area as confirmation there so we can see the daily setup is looking pretty perilous as well so any daily close back through that 145 want to be short Euro Yen looking for downside objectives let's move this on dollar CAD got a nice setup developing here so I've been looking for any break back through the 134,90s 134,60s we have two equality objectives sorry not an equality we have a 161 extension from the swing high here at 138,50s but we have the equality objective 138 this would be considered WXY pattern for earlier waivers so that we have the confidence down here at 133,20s, 133,30s so any loss there back through this 135 we have downside objectives 133,20s, 133,30s moving to the Aussie so we we've achieved our first target on the upside which was that 65,20 test we then got the pullback held and we now have a new equality objective which versus the swing low here at 62,70s we are looking for a test of 65,90s so I've been looking for any close back through this internal trend channel resistance as as confirmation for that next leg to the upside or we get a deeper pull back here into the trend channel support again at 63,20s watch the bullish reversal patterns there break through the trend channel resistance same target on the upside is is what we're looking for there 65,90s this stage only a loss of the 62,70s the embarrassed development and we're going to be opening downside targets again the Kiwi similar setup to the Aussie with a nice trend channel here so we are looking to find support into 58,18s the 58 level let's bring in our internal trend channel resistance so I've been looking for any close through this trend channel on the upside as a bullish development and we've gotten a quality objective new quality objective on the upside at 61,60s at this stage it took a close back through 57,39s suggests this upside correction is complete and then we'll be thinking about downside targets again Euro-Soyce this one's got an interesting setup so if we test here if we test and hold the 98 to 98,10 level watch for bullish reversal patterns there engage on the long side next target to the upside will be the 99,30s but ultimately we have this equality objective still in play which is 100,30s on the upside moving to the metals at gold gold nice bullish structure here so I'm looking for any break back through the 1720 to target 1750 on the upside in terms of gold if we if obviously if the inflation data is hustling expected I think we get a deeper pullback and we likely retest prior trend line resistance then to actors support before we try and make this next move to the upside relatively I'm looking for 1740 1750 as the as the target there in terms of goals crude oil in a box trade at the moment really I think we're just in this range 93,70s to 81,20s big range but versus the swing low that we have at the 81 level as long as that holds that 81 handle we still have an upside objective here at 98,70s in terms of crude oil I'd be waiting for a break of range resistance before going in on the long side and we'll wrap things up with Bitcoin obviously it's been a torrid week for for crypto balls with the FTX collapse and for those who have been here week in week out we've still got about 12,185 level if we get down there if we see some force selling some margin calls coming in and we liquidate down into that area that's going to be a key area for me I'm going to pay very close attention for longer term position trades in terms of crypto and Bitcoin any move into that area I'm going to be certainly watching for daily reversal patterns to build longer term swing positions in terms of in terms of Bitcoin there and the the crypto space in general so that's the whistle-stop tour of the setups I'm looking at obviously paying very close attention to the CPI data coming up in 10 minutes and and that's going to have a big impact today in terms of dollar risk sentiment in general so so that's going to really define the next I think directional drive in terms of these these markets are there any questions post quickly just post links into the chat here for those who want to get the daily trade plan for the S&P 500 or E-mini S&P all you have to do is request access and you can and you can get that daily trade plan and I post some other interesting information institution insights etc in that group okay I can't see any questions coming through so like I said I'm going to wrap this one up a little earlier today as I want to to prep for the CPI trade as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage all risk until next week thanks very much