 Let's jump over to our man Teddy keg stat. You can reach Teddy every trading day folks at his website for x dash trading dash on lock Dot-com we talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour Teddy keg stat. Good morning. Good morning Tommy How are you today? I'm doing well, man. So I had a few technical difficulties last week I know you were able to chat with our man Basil Chapman. So we haven't chatted you and I Teddy in two weeks Has the market been moving in the last couple weeks? Where are we at man? Kids but yeah, where do you want to kick things off Teddy? I know we always talk crude It's back near a hundred bucks almost that market pretty wild lately But where do you want to kick things off this morning? Well, it's Fed days Let's start with the 30 year and then we'll move into crude because it all comes into play together So perfect. We had that nice little rally in the bond market when the Ukraine Russian conflicts started a few weeks back and when we were talking you and I two weeks ago I said be be very leery of this rally It's a corrective move for one and we were we had that was when we had two weeks away before the Fed meeting So now we all are anticipating a quarter point rate hike They're not going to do more than that because it's not vulgar and they're not that kind of a Fed So this speak I think will be something to listen to over the next couple of weeks But we all know what's gonna come out of that, you know, they're gonna say the same blah blah They always do and raising rates is still gonna be on the table for the next six to eight months for sure So I'd be very leery of buying the bond market right now or the ten-year note market I would be looking to sell rallies and now today watch out If you're not in the market already don't even bother until tomorrow seriously You gotta remember you have rollover going on Which you have means you have futures and options expiration going on in all of the financials because they expire in March June September and December and then you have the oil expirations as well Okay, so with that just the mechanics of that going on with the Fed meeting going on you're gonna have a lot of algal Activity, okay, so I would say for sure if you're not involved right now wait a couple days and then reevaluate things, okay? Now as far as oil, you know, we've had a nice little reprieve But remember that the last time you and I talked we were coming off a week that just from Sunday to Monday Jumped $15 alone, you know, and now it's a shot all the way up to the 120s with 126 area So that's you know markets come out like they go in you hear me say that all the time So this is just a corrective snapback, you know, and I would be very leery trying to be a dollar I've seen me an oil bear right now, you know now We are at that friction point remember how I told this is before the Ukrainian crisis that once oil gets to that $100 to $110 a barrel area and that was if we just grab it, you know went along the normal slope That would start to restrict people's buying decisions, you know, which now we know for sure where yet we are in that You know, we have this Ukrainian Russian crisis, which is going on So that's gonna I think no matter what keep oil supported, you know Plus you have the rotation of the refineries in the US So that another thing going switching from the winter to the spring crude or refining process What have you is going to also cause a spike, you know in gas prices or at least keep them up, you know So oil if anyone wants to be a bear and think that we're going back to 70 or $60 anytime soon I highly doubt that, you know So plus you got to remember that we went from 60 to 126 in a very short amount of time So that correction that we had is just that okay So let's put this into perspective with the currencies. So as far as we looked at with the Japanese yen Hey, we finally got the breakout I saw that getting ready for you man quite the breakout and gold reacting accordingly go for a man. Yeah, yeah I mean, you know, I've been long the US dollar yen for months, you know, and Boy, it was really nice to wake up on Sunday and Monday and see the how this got a nice little rally going, you know So I'm very happy, you know, my quarter has been completed Nice now, that's quite a move man from 115 to 118 and like a heartbeat basically, yeah, right now Remember I had 117 half as a short term target with 122 being a longer term target Do I think we're gonna rock it up to 122 anytime soon? I think it'll be sooner than later, but not that quick I think you're probably gonna run into a little bit of resistance over the next couple of days We got until the Fed meetings over nothing is gonna happen with the yen, okay After the Fed meeting going into tomorrow and Friday's trade, we'll see I wouldn't doubt that you see a little bit of a pullback But I'm a buy break scenario guy right now with that market because as long as crude is strong Okay, that's keeping that supported as long as the interest rates are hitting their lows the 30 year and the 10 year plus We if we do get the rate hike, which is expected that should keep the pressure on the Japanese yet Meaning that the US dollar yen trade is gonna be a very sustainable bull for a while Okay now as far as the European currencies, obviously this whole conflict is has an issue with that We have a short-term bounce in the Euro and also in the pound the Euro I would be very leery of that market right there I would look to sell rallies in that and do not try and pick a bottom with that at all because We could be trading down at 107 or 106 in the Euro in a heartbeat literally, you know Now the pound is a totally different story Obviously they're supported by oil the interest rate equation does weigh on them But the Bank of England is also kind of on par with our Fed in least somewhat So I would be expected you're gonna see them raising rates as well, which also will support the pound Okay, I have a short-term buy signal in the pound. It was that happened as of yesterday's close But it is a short-term buy signal in a corrective Correction is what we have right now. Okay, so any upside move is supposed to be viewed as a correction But I could see it getting up to about 131.95 from the British pound US dollar, which will be critical if this market is gonna be Neutral or even remotely a short-term bull It has to cross that threshold if it runs in the resistance there Then it can possibly be back on its lows very quickly and that pound US dollar Are you pulling that area Teddy from kind of the lows it had back in December? Like one day just that that area. Where do you get that 131 out of curiosity 131.95 or close to 132 Where do you pull that from? That's off the recent swing high So if I look at yesterday if you look at today today, it said it or yesterday It said a little bit lower low. You had a bear a bullish engulfing line short-term buy signal Now if you look at that last low the last high was a couple sessions before that that's where I'm getting the 131.95 I got it's perfect. Okay March 10th. I like it perfect And now if we cross the 131.95 then I think 133.25 to about 133.70 would be your your blowoff high which that would be good There's gonna be an extended correction. Now remember the dollar has been on a tear It's very likely that after the Fed meeting we could see a pullback in the dollar It's gonna bear it's gonna be bearish, but it's good to take some profits So that's very likely to happen. It seems like all over this market Teddy It'd be good to take some profits or wherever you are right some of these I mean it's just you started off with the 30er man I've been talking about the tenure on my show just saying folks and and you know I consider myself somewhat young in the market and that's changing unfortunately over time But for what I've seen Teddy that move in six days, you know Not surprising when you think we have a Fed Lifting off today for the foreseeable future, but pretty surprising you can go from 1.6 percent and change to 2.2 percent almost Over seven trading days basically where do you see let me put you know This is the million dollar question if not even more we got about 30 seconds here Where do you see this 10 year may be going over the course of the year? Obviously a lot can change but considering the Fed and their hiking path I would say that as far as a bearish continuation, I think that you could see The distance that we've fallen so far this year I think is about a third of the distance we're gonna fall before the end of the year Okay, we're only a third of the way there. Yeah, listen. I'm this I you know I Big moves are possible. We know with this market Teddy. Great to talk to you man We appreciate the education the conversation. We'll talk to you next week man. Sounds great Tommy. Okay, you too, Teddy