 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. I am Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay and you are watching Present Past in the Future. We are in the middle of India's most important parliamentary elections in decades. The fundamentals of the republic have not been challenged so forcefully since the years of emergency. But what has been witnessed in the past five years is more worrying because the current regime is more ideologically driven than any of the previous ones. Over the next several weeks more than 900 million Indians are expected to vote. As matters appear now it is not resembling a national election but looks like an aggregation of state elections or maybe even sub-regional polls. The choice is between a vocal minority and a silent majority. The verdict on 23rd of May will determine whether India's inclusive political culture is retained or not. Will India take another step in becoming a majoritarian or an ethnic democracy? Or will this process be halted if not completely reversed? To discuss what lies in store for us I am joined by two veteran political scientists. My first guest in this program is Professor Zoya Hassan, former professor of political science and the Dean of School of Social Sciences at Jawaharlal Nehru University. She has authored several books and is among the most important independent voices to critically gaze at this regime. My other guest is Shubhrat Mukherjee, former professor and head of political science at Delhi University. A political theorist, he has also numerous books to his credit. He has a special ability to decode contemporary politics as an analyst without ever relinquishing his critical stance. Welcome to the program both of you. Now like always I will present three thesis or hypothesis that is what I call. And then we will have a discussion, we will throw it open to all of you. My first thesis is related to the present. Promoting populist nationalism and promoting religious polarizations are the only way that the BJP can construct a national narrative. So Professor Hassan do you think that this government has failed to deliver on the two most important things that it promised in 2014? Vikas and Badlau, development and change. And now it has no other option but to fall back on its age-old Hindutva campaign, polarizations, religious polarizations. Do you think it's as simple as the way I look at it? I think it has failed to deliver on its promises, it over-promised and it has under-delivered. I think as far as change is concerned it has changed but it has changed in the wrong direction. That is the problem. It is really as Amartya Sen said a leap backwards rather than a leap forwards. No matter how much they might say that this is a new India, this is an aspirational nation, that's not. I think it's a nation which is very disappointed and very disenchanted by the failure of the government to live up to its promises and in addition to that they've also encouraged conflict. There's more social conflict, between communities, which is politically engineered. This is not spontaneous conflict between communities. This is because BJP's emphasis is on political mobilization along religious lines. And I think that has created problems. So I think it's a combination of economic failure and because of their economic failures, they have actually brought the economy to a pretty bad state and therefore countering that through polarization. Prof. Mukherjee, when the Congress President Rahul Gandhi released the Congress Manifesto, he said that the India is currently facing an economic emergency. Now if you look at the entire political narrative in the last few months, matters appeared to be moving in towards an election fought on issues of what we call bread and butter, unemployment, rural distress, social security. These were the three most important issues. Still of course, Pulwama happened there after Balakot and then after that a dogfight with Pakistan. The BJP tried to change the narrative to a great extent. There is this constant tussle in the political space on what to contest it on. On the one hand, the BJP is trying to promote a fusion of populist nationalism and religious polarization. On the other hand, the Congress is trying to bring back constantly issues on basic Roti Kapra and Makhan issues, you know, as we call it constantly. Now when we look at this present election, the campaign and what is likely to happen over the next five weeks, how are you looking at this campaign and how significant do you see look at the various facets of it? You see like Balakot, the third world democracies. Indian democracy is not a consensual one. It is an adversarial one. It is some kind of a zero sum game and it is not exactly aim at a power sharing, but to dominate the political system as far as possible. Now if you really look to our electoral process, it is also give some credence to this kind of a theory because all the central governments if you have seen from the Nehruvian time, first election today are all minority governments. In the context of that, that polarization helps and also that if you can really cater very well to a minority constituency, you may be able to get at this proportionate number of seats. But now you see over the period of time, this particular model is facing some challenges. You see the collapse of the Congress system and inability of the BJP to build a system of its own, I think lies at the root of the problem of the BJP dilemma. You know the distancing of Modi government from Bajpayee, I think has been the main cause of the alienation that has really led to certain amount of isolation of the Modi government from the masses and from the elite as well. Now in that case, I think you know in the President juncture, they are pushed to the wall in a way and the posture they are taking, they probably have no other way. For instance externalizing the problem that is one, second is also really emotative issues to raise because on the economic and development issues in countries like ours is very difficult to win by itself all the time. Because you see every regional party talks of a regional pride, it talks of something else rather than purely economic terms because in a nation where the organized sector is shrinking and informalion is so huge, you see if you really talk of the demonetized effect and all that, you get lost. So the best thing that the Modi government is doing, the party is doing is to present the best it can afford to. Now my second thesis is that in the past five years India has witnessed unprecedented marginalization of religious minorities and imposition of a majoritarian ideology. Now we have no Professor Hassan, no empirical evidence to say that the extent to which Hindutva has developed. You were saying earlier you know that there has been change but the change has not been in the right direction. Now if we for a moment are able to plot an imaginary index of Hindutva if I just say and if you say that at 2014 we are at this level, so then maybe we are at a higher level today. But it is not that this has happened only in 2014, this is a process which has been going on right from the 1980s onwards. So there has been a collective failure of the polity to prevent it you know in the mid 1980s that is a time when communalism started becoming such a major factor in Indian politics. You were at the forefront of the Shah Banu case you know which provided a great opportunity for the Sangh Parivaat to launch an agitation on the Ram Janam Bhumi movement to convey a sense of angst among Hindus that too much is being done for the Muslims. So something should be done for us also. Thereafter it became a script which started going completely haywire. Now when we look at what has happened in the last five years it is possibly the swiftest tries. Would you agree with me that things have actually never looked as bleak as it is there and especially because it came after ten years of UPI government? Well yes I think the way you have now put it I would agree with you that these last five years have certainly shifted the polity more towards the right and clearly this was a very deliberate attempt to reverse the liberal progressive agenda of the United Progressive Alliance government which did cause some dismay among the middle classes the elite and so on particularly the right space legislation such as the right to employment the right to food and so on and so on so forth. Yes but the question of how far have we gone as far as Hindutva is concerned I think it is I would say overall Hindutva has certainly grown it has penetrated institutions which is disturbing and alarming but I think Hindutva is in terms of political support that it has gained not sure whether that has grown very significantly in the past five years. I would say it has possibly consolidated in certain parts of India where the BJP is already very strong namely North India, North Western India and I would say even in North India and North Western India BJP's greatest success really is in the Hinduization of UPI. I think that is that is their success I am not even sure whether. Just UPI or I would say other Hindi speaking states also. Yes Hindi speaking states generally but UPI particularly because there is for example a survey that has been done by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies in collaboration with Azim Premji University of Bangalore which is a survey on politics and society between elections so between 2014 to let us say 2019 and what that survey shows I mean there is of course a whole series of questions that they have examined but one of the questions is on the influence of religious nationalism and Hindutva. What emerges is the concentration of support for Hindutva in UPI and in some in Bengal little bit even in Tamil Nadu which might come as a surprise to us but it is principally UPI not even well you could say Rajasthan yes UPI and Rajasthan so but what is clear so therefore therefore we have to take this into account that here is here is a part here is a very ideologically driven party backed by the RSS and which has stopped at nothing to actually consolidate to Hindutva. It has succeeded only this far and no further now that I think is really a great compliment to the Indian people who have not been taken as much as we might think by Hindutva they have not been and in fact if they were so taken then this elections result would have been a foregone conclusion. The very fact that the 2019 election is so competitive is so competitive and the very fact that the BJP has had to focus principally on national security and Pakistan and Musalman I mean it is Pulwama Pakistan and Musalman that is what Pakistan is you know attacked primarily as a proxy for the Indian Muslims. Yes all that is a trope for Muslims. The very fact that they have had to focus on all this is an indication that they are not on a very strong wicket and they clearly know that Hindutva is not working it has I am not suggesting that Hindutva does not have support but its support is not really beyond the support that BJP RSS enjoy in certain parts of the country over the past 20 years. Professor Mukherjee besides of course you know the rise in the growth and consolidation of Hindutva we have also of course seen the extension of Hindutva into fairly unlikely regions we have seen it becoming slightly stronger in Kerala we have seen making significant strides in West Bengal in Assam in other northeastern states especially Manipur Tripura these are the states you know which have been that kind of ideologically driven growth of Hindu nationalistic politics is actually a sign of worry but more importantly there is also this has also been accompanied by an attack on various other institutions of constitutional institutions of India which we can whether it is judiciary or whether it is the academic world. Liberal thought in itself has been delegitimized it has been argued more and more that unless you believe in my version of the truth you are an anti-national so we have definitely become more of what political scientist like you would call it becoming an ethnic democracy we remain a democracy but the contestation is only among few in 2014 we had argued is journalist like us had said you know that for the first time a message had been sent that Muslims are completely irrelevant to getting a majority in a country like India. The BJP BJP did not feel a single Muslim candidate yet they executed a majority. Nilanjan you see that Montesquieu made a very important observation there are no accidents in history is a cause and effect you see the I'll put the blame on the Congress even the Nehruvian secularism really could never distinguish between individual right and group right and that led to lot of confusion you know and there was also certain amount of high handedness that actually allowed Mrs Gandhi and Rajiv later to move in a tilting towards the Hinduism you know the entire story and how it really developed leading to the Shabanu case where the Congress really capitulated and allowed the BJP to grow even garnering quite a bit of liberal middle-class support. Now if you really look to that point of a view you see that the rise of BJP can be explained in terms of failure of the identity politics of the Congress you see as the rise of Trump can be looked at the failure of the democratic identity politics and similarly the similar majoritarian policies politics in various other countries also the phrases like appeasement you know all that thing can really work when you annoy a certain section of the majority community and that I think Congress should have avoided and it's also really happened if you really look to with the liberalization process you see the state really was shrinking and the collapse of the Nehruvian model of development allowed other forces to come in so on the one hand the Congress had to really face two challenges one is the you know the command economy was replaced by a demand economy what a total integration with the world economy for which India was not prepared and then of course the decline of the Congress and also I would say some short-sightedness of the Congress mistreatment of Narasimha Rao by the Gandhi family and all that really created a ground for an alternate to emerge and in that context you see and the alternative was more ideologically driven by the Congress of that time sure you see that's our conversation humanization these are the phrases for the bachpayee regime that was used at the never abandoned the right core ideology right you see and then what happened if you really look to the president juncture I think there are two three important points you see the Shabrasad Mukherjee point that India that is father that is Uttar Pradesh does not work anymore you see it's a very fragmented polity and it's a federalizing trend and I think even a government can be formed without UP numbers that is also a possibility now in that kind of a situation you see the BJP dilemma is like this it cannot be anti-muslim for instance you see I'll give you an instance I'll give you an example you see they're saying that such a committee did not do anything for the Muslims so they're speaking in multiple voices at one of course they will like to retain their core area but is they also like that they will annoy a very large number of liberal Hindus and third they will also annoy a very sizable number of Muslims and in many of the constituencies Muslims are a very important determining factor Bengal Assam I'm not talking just the BJP does nothing to to get their support it is not interested in support it's approach is very clear that it wants to consolidate or rather reach the utopian target of hundred percent of the Hindus that's not what it is trying to do that's not possible because it is certainly not depending on Muslim support in any of the constituency that it is doing if you look at in Gujarat also in his entire tenure as the Chief Minister Mr Modi you know I've looked at his tenure at Gujarat very carefully we also know that I wrote his biography you know he has actually very consciously the regime worked very consciously towards creation of docile Muslim ghettos it was a very conscious policy and it was it has not been reversed so similar kind of process has been underway in the last five years and I have certain amount of disagreement with you India is a nation of minorities each of us as a multiple identity every single Indian is like that so characterized a core idea of Hinduism is very misleading you cannot that is what the BJP is always tried to do it has tried to bring around all encompassing idea of Hinduism that is what was done through the Ram Jain and Bhoomi movement let us not I think we are falling into the same thing that BJP is doing which is conflating Hinduism and Hindutva Hinduism is a religion which is very diverse very plural Hindutva is a singular idea and very tolerant very tolerant we forget this and Hindutva is a singular ideology it's a political and completely intolerant of any of your point that is what that is what is actually given to the Hinduism and Hindutva in the same way that is the point I am trying to emphasize that cannot lead to a winning coalition you see even the 201 for election we really look to was not fought on Hindutva it was fought on development it was but Hindutva was getting kept kept underneath the sleeve whatever it you know Modi kept on calling Rahul Gandhi as Shehzadeh not as Rajkumar or as Yubhraj but it was necessary the facade worked you know it it won over middle India now the middle India got deceived now this time what has happened is possibly what we have been conversing is that possibly that section of people which disagreed with Modi in 2014 that has possibly shrunk and there are more number of people today who endorsed the idea of Hindutva that is in fact my you know sense that is what I pick up from the ground that there is but I'm not yet saying that this possibly may still not be enough to get them a majority that is different but what I am saying that generally speaking there is a greater amount of societal endorsement to the idea of Hindutva this is my personal assessment anyway let me move to the third in the final thesis which is related to the future now my thing is that even if the BJP is not part of the next government it would actually be very difficult to roll back the gains which have been made in the five years of this majoritarian regime do you agree a test case you know I keep asking my friends would Allahabad become Allahabad again a decision taken by the future government or would it a non-BJP government or would it say two confidants who let it go well I think you're right that some of the things they have done would be difficult to reverse for a future for any government just the way many things were not able to be reversed between 2004 and 14 yes but at the same time I think we are sort of jumping ahead the more important thing is that if BJP and RSS are not in power that itself is such a big setback for the BJP RSS because they are doing everything possible to get re-elected and if they're not re-elected that is a defeat of this project it will be a big big defeat but I think the more important thing is that a new government will be mindful of the need to establish social peace the need to establish social harmony and the need to focus on political and economic inclusion this government is defined by exclusion both economic exclusion as well as political exclusion and and I think this is very clear from the fact that that BJP has announced a very large number of candidates almost their entire list has been announced and I do not think they have given a single ticket to a Muslim as they had done in 2014 when they did not give a single ticket they did not give a single ticket to one or two I think there is one in Bengal if I'm not mistaken they have okay they have but yes it's it's nothing more than tokenism and that too possibly because that candidate came I mean the point is that in the European assembly elections where Muslims constitute 20% of the population in 2017 they did not give a single ticket to a Muslim the same well if they're giving one or two tickets that doesn't really mean very much so there is a very deliberate attempt to disenfranchise Muslims despite the fact that Muslims obviously exercise their vote they are enthusiastic about Indian democracy they have a very positive positive feelings towards democracy and yet there's a deliberate attempt to exclude such a large section of of the population Professor Mukherjee as you get into the concluding part of this discussion what are the various scenarios that you are seeing you know that do you see that really there's a possibility of either a weakened BJP government in office or a non-BJP government in office both are possible I don't think the 2014 thing can be repeated that will continue to haunt us as an exceptional election but future is very hard to predict but I can tell you certain important points you see if you really want to govern and mind you that ultimately its economic issues there is an inevitability of moderation so whether you like it or not you will have to have a moderate politics because you see of the integration of Indian economy with the world otherwise the foreign capital on which we are so much dependent we fly somewhere else already we compare quite poorly in human development indices and all that so we'll have to move forward and a 7-8% growth rate any government will have to maintain that will mean maintenance of social cohesion and some kind of a partnership and power-sharing. Professor Hassan running out of time just one last comment from you. No I mean the question that you asked Shabrata just now I would say in a non-BJP government is not unlikely at this stage it might seem difficult and I think it's extremely important to have an alternative secular non-BJP government for the simple reason that five years have clearly shown us that power does not moderate the extreme right. Well said and thank you very much for coming and joining me. The next few weeks are going to be particularly challenging for the BJP and it will leave no tactic left to win another term not many of these will unfortunately not be fair and it will be for the people to see through the devices at the end we shall have to respect the mandate although we hope this would not be subverted. Thank you for watching this program.