 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Whenever the MLB all-star break rolls around and starts to set in just how close the NFL is just how close We are to having players on the field during training camps Which means this is one of our final chances to actually talk NFL player awards before Training camps get underway. So what better time to talk some NFL What better time to bring back Ryan Williams and pick his brain about the NFL award market over at Fandall Sport But can try to identify where he sees value as of right now This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Number fire calm my name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan it is a pleasure to have you back on the show for today. It has been far Too long how you do it Yeah, I'm doing well Jim, it's always a pleasure to be uncovering the spread I can't believe we're at MLB all-star break We only got a couple more Sundays here without football. It's just that time. It's it's that time you you call me up You know you call in the reserves. You're like, hey, let's go. What's going on? Let's get you on the show. Let's talk some futures and I'm like, yes That's just what I've been waiting for Jim injected into my veins. Get me up No, man, it's it's all good fun I'm excited to be back in the in the passenger seat with you and to talk some shop as it relates to the NFL futures It's not the reserves. We were saving the big guns. It's got to rest them up before NFL season You know, we gotta we got to make sure we so that we don't wear you out before NFL So this is all like planned, you know NFL or MLB team saving there like all-star starter Ramping them up throughout the year. We've got to get you got to get you back up so we can have you in October when things Really matter. So a pleasure to have you back on the show here for today. We're gonna talk through the NFL awards markets We'll talk overall strategy as far as like because you are locking up bankroll for a long time Like how much an edge you need to justify locking up bankroll until February. We'll talk about that We'll talk about MVP coach of the year rookie of the year all that here in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed To the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or over on Spotify also Do not forget all these shows are going up on the faddle YouTube page and on the faddle TV plus app If you got the faddle TV plus app, you can find it on Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku as well. 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Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 100-327-5050 for 24-7 support in massachusetts Call 1-877-789-hopenwire.tex-hopenwire in new york Now as I mentioned Ryan before diving into the actual markets and talking about the players we think may be undervalued for this year I want to talk overall philosophy with you when it comes to betting futures because if you bet a player award market right now unless you cash out basically the sportsbook has control of that money until February and That's a lot of time you could spend that money on something else. You could put it in a cd. I don't know whatever you want to do um That is a long time to lock up bankroll So how much of an edge do you need in order to justify Betting something that you know will not pay out until February It's got to be a pretty pretty nice edge there Uh, I will say you're talking to somebody who I have some bets on futures That it was looking through my through my account that happened on February 11 You know because you are getting you are getting long shots at that at that point in time If you feel like there is an edge or you feel like there's there's some situations to take advantage of The players i'll just mention that I put futures on are Justin fields uh to win mvp Which those odds have already changed. See I got him at 30 to 1. He's now 20 to 1 Russell wilson. I got him at 50 to 1. He's now in the 40 to 1 range Uh and erin rogers who was 25 to 1 going to potentially a different team at the time Is what is what we thought we didn't know where it would be but probably a favorable situation immediately when he gets there I got him at 25 to 1 and he's now 16 to 1. So like when you can take advantage Of the market and you know do things in in that nature. I think that that's always encouraging To be able to lock up some money when you think that there's going to be An advantage now I was going to save this until later on but this kind of leads me to A point that I was going to bring up with jamar chase from a couple years ago So when we start getting into this time of the season And it's always fun right for for july rolls around Everybody you know is thinking about okay, so if i'm in you know dynasty leagues I got to start thinking about you know drafts scott fishbowl comes around Which is a big thing in fantasy people are thinking about that people are thinking about best ball People are gearing up for august and when that happens we start to see the narrative train Start to start to come along you got you got training camp you got hard nice You got all of these things and with jamar chase specifically a couple years ago when training camp was going on What was the talk? Oh this guy can't catch the ball. He has duck hands It's going to be rough for him and that that affected the market for him going into it when he was drafted He was one of the favorites to be rookie of the year and then all of a sudden the stuff Starts piling on and through the beginning of the season like you were getting favorable odds And the 10 to 1 range and higher of this guy being rookie of the year So when we have things like that that happened where You're pretty sure the talent's there Or or maybe you're you're willing to bet on the talent there because of where this draft Half capital came in on a guy That's what makes it really exciting and where you can take advantage of the market I'm excited to go through some of these Rookies with you jim because I do think there there are some discrepancies But this is the best time of the year jim for people who you know Want to play concierge and or want to take the long shots That's the only way that makes it worth it is if you take some of these long shot bets You kind of weigh out the outcomes and yes, they're going to be long shots Like russell wilson had one of the worst years From a quarterback of his stature in recent memory last season But you know you think about the coaching changes that are happening there You think about the weapons that are still there in denver and if you're going to give me 50 to 1 odds on a guy who Is formally an mvp and can you know write the ship at any time given a situation like I'm willing to take those bets. So long story short jim. I think that if we're looking to lock up some money We definitely want it to be Bang worth the buck When it comes to that and taking these long shots are very Valuable at this point in time and possibly something that you might end up forgetting if you get these long shot Melvin sudden February rolls around and you see your bank account start to start to roll up But I think the key thing that you did was you locked up players who On whom you would get closing line value and closing line value is kind of Quantifying putting like a number behind the edge that you have which allows you to like justify Locking up that bank roll like basically with justin fields like okay If he gets a weapon in the off season his number will short he gets dj more than number short If erin rogers I mean he could have retired at that time honestly But if he gets traded and gets better weapons and what he had his number will shorten russa wilson if he gets a Better coaching situation, you know, uh, shon payton becomes his coach you get closing line value So I think that what you were doing was identifying markets where He would shift in your favor Which is again just kind of getting a number value behind The value that you got so again like let's say if you're comparing Betting a player market versus again putting I don't know I'm just going to use putting your money in a cd as an as an example Like this is like an investment decision because you can use that money in other areas But if you're going to get closing line value on it that is effectively growing that money Because it's growing the expected value of what you put in to that market So I think that what you want to do is what ryan did is identify areas where a player's number may shorten and Use that as an example That's also why the jamar chase example is pertinent because his number For length which was a way to dive in before short and once again once they were actually on the field So I think that identifying spots where you think the market will move is a pretty big important factor if you're trying to Justify locking up bankroll for that long So let's talk about that mvp market as you mentioned the guys you've you've uh, you've already invested and have short not ready so Potentially no more value in those guys. I think russia Wilson's still 40 So maybe you want to talk about that but look at the mvp market as of right now We got josh alan joe burrow and patrick mighomes all at seven to one Ryan with where things currently stand any value for you in the mvp market if angelo sportsman Yeah, so this is this is always a fun one because you know you look at the top and Even funny to me. I guess maybe you say it's alphabetical order But like patrick mighomes always is just leaping bounds like I love love joe burrow Absolutely love them this year like if you were telling guns in my head putting money on one of these guys seven to one I would be joe burrow all day. Um, I just love the bingles outlook for this season josh alan It is a little bit worrisome of the things that are kind of going on in buffalo I still trust the talent there and so totally makes sense to me But I think those guys deserve to be just a little bit higher than jim josh alan, but where it gets fun Jim is just kind of thinking about situations here. So I mean No, it's it's talked about all all over the place But in case people don't know this is a quarterback award Don't get caught up in the hype on some of these other guys like you you can even see the quarterbacks I think it's uh until you get to a guy Who did I see? Oh my gosh? I can't like Derek Henry? um is 150 Sam how is a hundred like that this is the type of stuff that we're dealing with like Sam how is is higher than you know some of these electric guys, but because it's a quarterback award I think it's been since 2010 uh quarterbacks of one every year except for the adrian peterson year, which I believe was 2012 if memory serves me right um And so that's where I look at and so and you're also looking at teams who are successful because usually the quarterbacks come in around You know double digit wins for sure And so when we look at future win totals, that's kind of what i'm trying to parlay with now I did talk about a guy like russell wilson. I you know that is a tough division there out in the afc west But if he's able to kind of put it together, um, it's already coming down to 40 to one But that's still pretty nice odds and chunk of change for a guy um who could who could be there uh come come december come january The another another guy that I was looking at jim Um, which doesn't make me feel great about it, but just when we're talking about situations If you look at dishawn watson, uh 25 to one, I will say like earlier on This year even I believe he was at 40 to one like in march And so you're already starting to see the trend and it never makes you feel good browns getting hype love I mean we remember that with baker mayfield. They were like one of the top five super bowl favorites Uh, just just always discussed them with cleveland, but you're looking at the weapons You're looking at what they've invested around him You're looking at the amount of equity they invested into dishawn watson And this is a guy in houston who was electrifying and a you know, that there's a reason why they went out and got them So at 25 to one, I do think that that's interesting there You know, if you can say that they can keep up with cincinnati and we don't kind of know what's going on with baltimore Pittsburgh's always going to be in the mix. They're a tough opponent, but we don't see them win in the division So I think dishawn watson is interesting. I mean then after that like after the rustle wilson reins There's nothing that really Excites me all too much Just because it is like that win heavy award So I really think that you're looking kind of in that 20 to 40 to one range on any guys that you might feel comfortable with Yeah, regarding dishawn watson. I was talking about my nfl win total Model and going through that and it did show value in the browns Is being a team that Might be a bit undervalued by the market as a team and that does correlate to this market because like you said you want to Bet quarterbacks on teams that will win a lot of games and if an nfl team is undervalued by the market There is a good chance that the quarterback is also undervalued by that market Now that thought does not apply to one guy I wanted to ask you about Because I think that the ravens are actually pretty appropriately priced in the in the in the like wind total market But what they are ryan is they're volatile in a good way and I think that volatility in this market is a positive because We don't really know what lamar jackson will look like with todd monkin as his offensive coordinator with Zay flowers in town with hopefully a healthy rashad bateman And I feel like the not knowing part is a massive bonus when it comes to lamar jackson He's 15 to 1 I think if I were to and I've not placed any MVP Bets because I just I feel very weird about locking up stuff for that long. So that's that's why I've not done that personally but If I won right now ryan, I'd have a I'm not going lamar jackson Just because we may see a more past centric offensive todd monkin may see a more Like modern. I don't know like I don't want to diss their old offense too much But like less archaic offense I feel like lamar jackson is the one who interests me most of 15 to 1 Any interest for you and lamar any thoughts or him at that number? Do you think it's pretty appropriate? Uh, what are your thoughts there? Yeah, it does feel appropriate. It does feel a little, uh, you know, I think that Getting him in the even the dak press got range and and probably not just in fields But like 18 to 1 would feel about right and there was so much Vlog going around lamar jackson and resigning with the ravens or what was going to happen there That i'm really shocked to kind of see it where it comes in but the books are smart So, um, that's how they beat you in lamar jackson's been a guy that I've bet for mvp I think the past three seasons Um, I just always love the situation that it's in and yes If he's going to be passing them all more like I don't even question his rushing ability Like he can just really break things if he does, you know Go out there and throw for over 3000 yards and ends up for rushing over a thousand yards Like he's capable of doing like record setting year that Why not take a chance on a guy like that? I do like they're they're often to outlook and we we know Again, that division is just going to be so competitive And that's the kind of stuff that I love betting on jim is when I you know, I kind of know that it's going to be You know a battle All season long and there's not really a clear favorite. I guess the bingles would be but um It just just always adds into the narrative of that it's going to be competitive The games are going to be exciting and if lamar jackson is able to beat the bingles twice in one season Like that's going to do a lot for his mvp odd. So yeah, um, that makes it fun for sure We talked about three of the four quarterbacks in the FC north. No love for kenny picket I'm not going to try to even talk you into that one at 40 to once Let's just talk instead about the coach of the year market where Really no favorite right now in the coach of the year market Dan Campbell is 10 to 1 shan peyton that eber flues both 12 to 1 So no real runway favor in the coach of the year market ryan When you look at this market specifically anyone stand out to you Yeah, let's go back to the ravens and talk about john harbaugh who comes in at 25 to 1 uh to win this i actually Not that i would prefer that over the 15 to 1 lamar because it's such a crapshoot when you're talking about Coach of the year and things that can happen and now brian day bull wins it last year and it could have Easily gone to nick siriani But you know i 25 to 1 for john harbaugh. He's kind of been in the mix before You always again when we're talking about narratives here, there's no bigger narrative I don't feel like then with coach of the year like the team has to be you know kind of Upset in a way It's coming out of nowhere insert brian day bull. Um, you have to be successful Giants made the playoffs. So um, I do like getting In the 20 to 1 range for this for this particular award because of all of that So I think you're looking at you know a guy like uh john harbaugh It it is hard for me to like think about coach bill bellicek winning an award like this But when you're thinking about 30 to 1 and you know if they were able to you know Take the dolphins to the woodshed take the bills to the woodshed like that that could be interesting But I always do look at like new coaches and the situations that they're in Um, even a guy like arthur smith who I thought would be really interesting Of course a lot of people probably are thinking that that's why he's at 16 to 1 because that nfc south division is just absolute trash So um if the falcons are able to get something out of ridder and you know Really build around vijan and the things that they have going on there That could be exciting 16 to 1 is is a favorable one that I would take Outside of the 20 to 1 odds. I think brandon staley too has a little bit of merit to him at 20 to 1 um the chargers, you know with With their outlook and I don't I don't know, you know, this also is a person Uh, it's a person driven award as far as like people voting for it. Jim, right? So I don't know how many people really Like or appreciate brandon staley in the league with the risks and things that he's able to do He's always getting blasted on blasted on social media and things like that for his decision making So if it came down to it, I don't know if they'd be able to pull the trigger on somebody like him But if he's able to do something with the chargers, um, you know, you love kelamore being there as the offensive coordinator With with uh herbert's outlook. I think that that has some merit to it as well Yeah, staley you mentioned like the the aggressiveness and that that angered like the old school football people But then last year angered all the nerds like me by being weirdly conservative and just like odd and like bottling up This cyborg quarterback confusing to let him through. I know it wasn't him as the oc But like, you know, that's why I went to kelamore and stuff like that But he angered both the nerds and old school football, which is tough to do So he managed to do that and that definitely could be a detriment as far as uh him in this market The one guy I thought was kind of interesting is denis allen 30 to 1 Kind of the same thought process you were using with arthur smith where nsc south is super wide open He has a new quarterback in derrick car, and I think the car is very flawed as a quarterback, but also pretty big upgrade over the conglomerate Of tasam hill and whatever the saints are running out there last year So I could see allen being somewhat interested not a first year head coach It's this is the second year at the helm But kind of bucking that trend of okay This was shawn patin's team that he managed to be okay with and stuff like that. I think that one is kind of interesting But I think that the reason I I haven't bet this I think that this award award mark this award is broken because The longest shot on the board is andy reed andy reed is 50 to 1 tied with Todd bowls and that does not make sense I know it like it does make sense as far as like actually betting this award But this award is broken and I hate it. So I have not bet it. I will not bet it But Dennis allen is somewhat interesting. I just like I stare at andy reed right and I'm like He should be coach of the year every year. It's like not cannot quite otani mvp levels But like just give andy reed the the award every year. It's wild. It's wild. Yeah those narratives. I'll tell you They'll kill you. I know they'll bite you Let's talk about the rookie of the year markets where things are Not settled with the favorite because we got will Anderson at four to one on the Defensive side of things B. John Robinson three to one on the offensive side of things But we do have favorites in both these departments. So ryan looking at both the offensive and defensive sides Which players do you think are undervalued most right now over a fan? Yeah, I think if we're talking about offensive side specifically I think there could be a case for cj stroud and usually we're talking about double digit Odds here on players like this. But when you're talking about rookie of the year Quarterback coming in houston traded up for him Could possibly be the number one pick at one point nine to one. This is actually moved Back a little bit. He was you coming in at the seven one range earlier on this year I think what the stuff that's going on in houston and you know kind of uncertainties there That's kind of lend itself to that also with anthony richardson to the thought of gardener and choose starting the season You know has led him to kind of be pushed down as well. I don't think that I'm sure a lot of people weren't even aware Sure that he was going to be starting at the season even when he was drafted So I think cj stroud does have some merit there if he can kind of you know play else 17 and you know keep the texans competitive I definitely like that bed and then we get into the receivers Um, I think it's you know really interesting to see the receivers down as far as they are You know even you know jackson Jordan quinton johnson at 25 to one like you know Keenan allen's been banged up. Mike Williams has been banged up if this guy is the you know healthy piece and We think herbert's going to be you know prolific pastor with kellen moore there and things that they do with three wide receiver sets Or had done in dallas and that comes to fruition With the chargers like 25 to one on a guy in a past heavy offense like sign me up for that all the time I think ze flowers even has some interesting merit to him. He's way down here But you talking about a first wrong guy Odell and richard bateman's been banged up and he's been a fantasy darling But if he's not the guy in ze flowers is I always find that interesting and then we have to scroll down jim keep scrolling Get to that 50 to one range My god, jonathan mingo being here like who is the number one receiver in carolina? I don't know at this point and I know that they you know invest the top pick In jonathan mingo there to go with brice young a rookie You know we talk about rookies and backup quarterbacks having reports with with some guys that they come in with Or on the units with and if jonathan mingo ends up being that guy For brice young through training camp. I think it's worth taking the shot We're talking about tying up our money for a while right jim and so you definitely want to make it worth it 50 to one like what you know what do you have to lose this guy could be explosive He had some he had some stuff that caught my eye On tape when looking at draft profiles So I definitely like the launch that's there when you're talking about the defensive rookie of the year This is one where you know, I really think that anybody who plays in idp leagues or Really invested in the defense that should get involved in this because we always see there's just not enough Knowledge around these guys from a general fantasy standpoint. So you tend to see These guys have longer odds than most because people are just bad in the top hippie favorites But I never usually dabble In this range, but if there's somebody that kind of catches my eye early on Before the numbers start changing too much. I will probably dabble a little bit You know mica parson's a lot was going on with dallas at that time as far as social media goes in the coverage of him And he was just so excited. I think they were on hard knocks the year he was drafted. So Or not hard knocks amazon. There was an amazon prime like show and he was getting hyped up And so that was a fun one to kind of you know be be on with but uh But yeah, I don't have any I don't have any really strong reads at the defense rookie of the year I just know that these odds It's same with defensive player of the year. They tend to be very top heavy So if you have any investment or if you keep track of what's going on with the market I think that there's definitely an advantage there for for people Yeah, I do want to go back to stroud here quickly I mentioned him at nine to one and I think that the point you made about like, you know, we need big value to Just about locking a bankroll this long is probably the best point against Jay stroud because nine to one How much value is there actually but I do think that there is enough here to Consider him because that offensive line. Houston is actually not bad. Honestly. Um, it's like decently. Okay There's a solid amount of continuity there The pass catchers Are fine. Um, but they're not terrible. I wouldn't say I'm not I'm very out in robber woods But like they've got some other guys who at least flashed last year. They did add dalton schultz as well. So There is a bit of that so I think that stroud is pretty interesting in nine to one. I like stroud a lot coming out. I was Flummoxed when there was so much steam against him in the nfl draft rumor mill where he was suddenly Potentially in the slide outside the first round I was ecstatic when he was taken second overall So I believe in him and I believe in the town I think this offense is actually not as bad as perception potentially and he gets to play all of his home games indoors along with One of his row or at least one of his divisional row games in indianapolis So a lot of games indoors, which is a plus two same thing for richardson In the exact same division, but I do find stroud pretty interesting in nine to one I think that if I were looking at a bet to place think that richardson or stroud would be the guy I would turn to there What about all the other awards ryan because we've got plenty offensive player of the year defensive player of the year Across those markets right now any other bets you like at this moment? Yeah, I think if we're just on that same vein with the rookies and looking at the rookie receiving yard leader I think that you know, that's kind of why jonathan mingle caught my eye because he's five On the rookie receiving yards list at 12 to 1 And then all the way down at 50 to 1 to be rookie of the year That just it's kind of a big discrepancy for me that I like to call out Um, I do like say flowers that tend to 1 to Just if we can get more Deep ball passing from lamar and have the big playability and he's on the field I do find that to have some merit to it So those those were two guys that I was looking at there just at their prices Other than that for for futures at this point. It's not really too much for me. I'm still looking at wind totals On themes and letting those come to fruition the browns being at nine and a half and plus money Is an interesting one, especially if i'm going to bet dishawn watson at mvp Teams to make the playoffs, you know, bears are plus money there You know, if you're betting in illinois, they actually have their own section Because of so many people getting traction on them But yeah, this is the fun time where you know, it's really just about dialed it being dialed in To beat reporters being dialed in when training camp starts and kind of seeing where things happen And also like where the where things are getting hyped up if you don't have a good feeling on Oh, no, I don't really see this coming to push and then kind of let the market play out let those guys, you know Get their numbers changed and and then take take shots on the guys um that you Maybe feel a little bit more confident in So I always find I always find this to be a fun time to get future bets in in july and august And then we don't think then we don't think about it We just set it and forget it Almost like our lineups gym that we talk about where you know, you're getting these long shot odds and just kind of Let them sit and you won't even be thinking about them come october november and then you go back and check And you're like wow like I actually had this guy at 40 to 1, you know, this is great or man I put a bet on this guy. What the hell was I thinking? But it's always fun to be able to to go back and look at some of those things come to push him very exciting I did have a 2 a mvp bet a second year. So I've had the what the hell is I thinking moment for sure? So we've I've been there for sure. I understand what you're saying Holy and Significantly for sure. All right. That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread. We back once again tomorrow We're talk some NASCAR in new Hampshire for this week We'll have baseball back on friday of pitching ninja joining us once again as well One big thank you to ryan williams for joining us as mentioned fine ryan on twitter at ryan out and zander underscore W ryan. I will see you in person on sunday for a fantasy football drafts looking forward to that but until then appreciate the time and Good luck looking through that portfolio portfolio once again Absolutely as always jim excited to get the call can't wait to get after it with you This football season and can't wait to see you on sunday my friend Looking forward to it. You can find me on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s. Make sure you're subscribed To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also check us out on fan dual's youtube page and the fan dual tv plus app We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network