 Welcome, traders, to another Tick-Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 25th October of the New Country movement. This week we see 157 firms release Q3 earnings in what could be among the most important weeks of the prolonged earnings season, alongside the kick-off that was around financials. Breath fans out into key names and segments whose surprises can impact multiple asset classes, including names such as Facebook, Twitter, Alphabet, GM, Ford, eBay, Starbucks, Amazon Merc, 3M, UPSG, Boeing, Caspilla, Apple, MasterCard, Microsoft and Visa. US releases will be fairly light, but a few that are certainly worth watching, we get consumer confidence. The October reading from the conference board lands on Tuesday. It's been declining and this has sparked some concern over risks to the economic cycle. Thursday we get GDP, the first estimate for third quarter GDP arrives. We're looking for an above consensus 3.5% quarter over quarter annualized growth. On Friday, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauges for September will be released. They should broadly follow CPI with an estimate headline increase of 0.4% month per month. That would lift the year over year rate to 4.5% with core inflation rising to 0.2% month per month and increase the 6.3.7% year over year. Income and spending are also released on Friday. Income growth faltered probably more so than in September. The main estimate culprit for that is the elimination of the extra $300 a week supplemental jobless benefits for the remaining mostly red states that have not already opted out of the supplemental payments. It's unclear if reduced supports will benefit job acceptance, but the experiment has certainly been interrupted by the Delta variant such that if cases continue to decline, then it may become a purer experiment. Lastly, pay attention to Durable's goods release on Wednesday probably fell by that 1.5% month in September in part based on a steep decline in aircraft orders and ongoing challenges in the auto sector. Core orders, ex-defense and aircraft are estimated to have risen for a seventh consecutive month. From a technical perspective, Donor Index sitting right on that monthly pivot at 93.50 trying to stabilize there but for any pullbacks into the 94, 10, 94, 20 area to set up a potential three-way corrective move down into the ascending trendline support at 93 now. From there, we watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side targeting that 50% per treason up towards 96 and the projected ascending trendline resistance got monthly range resistance coming just above that 96.20. At this stage, it would really take a loss of this trendline support just below the 93 handle to suggest that the upside has basically played its part out and we're looking for an extension down then certainly thinking about monthly range support 91.80 and then through there we're looking back down into those but for now we look for a three-way correction to extend to the upside. In the Eurozone, CPI for October is forecast to rise about half the percent month of the month. That would take the year over year rate up towards three and a quarter percent while core inflation is estimated to stay just under two percent year over year. EuroGov base effects are contributing to peak core inflation pressures now though through to December before the year over year rate is likely to decelerate again into the new year. Germany and Spain update inflation the day before while France and Italy update it on Friday. The first estimate for Eurozone Q3 GDP growth arrives also on Friday. Growth is expected to be just over two percent quarter over quarter at a seasonally adjusted but non-annualized pace as the economy continues to rebound from the mild contractions over the 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. UCB decision is also released on Thursday could be the most significant meeting to the global markets. It's fairly widely expected that President Lagarde will lead an effort to push back on price season for hikes to the minus 0.5 percent deposit rate. At present, markets are pricing most of 10 basis points high by next summer though the return to zero rate is well down the road really. Expect lots of talk of base effects transitory drivers and slack in terms of its inflation logic going forward. From a technical perspective the Eurodollar similar to the dollar index here testing some pivotal resistance at the 116 50 to 116 70 as this area contains and certainly is the trend line here at 117 15 holds prices on the upside. We look for an extension down into that test of the 114 30 area and from there we may see a meaningful recovery take place at this stage. We only see a close back through 117 50 to suggest that the downside correction is complete and we can assess upside objectives. Now moving to Japanese yen pretty light calendar week next week in terms of data we do have the Bank of Japan on Thursday but it's very likely that they're going to do anything that's going to be market moving and then on Friday we get Japanese September industrial production supply chain disruptions continue to hit that figure hard we're looking at something around the minus point three point six percent print for that. Talking about the dollar yen in terms of the technical setup looking now for a pullback into this ascending trend line support 113 area watch for bullish reversal patterns there to engage again on the long side looking for the equality objective on 1580 and then on to projected ascending trend line resistance at 1647 at this stage really would need to see a close below the trend line support here 112 at 70 area to suggest that we're going to see a deeper pullback certainly then we can think about 111 50 and then the trend line support coming in 110 22 now we watch for the trend line test bullish reversals and engage on the long side sterling the autumn budget and spending review on Wednesday will be the week's main focus in terms of the sterling market the key question is whether economic upgrades and better borrowing figures provide room for Chancellor Sunak to offer significant giveaways the answer is probably not here are the main economic details to look out for really firstly the economic growth forecast for the 2021 the independent office for budgetary responsibility or the OBR is likely to be revised up significantly from its cautious 4 forecast back in March Bank of England for example predicts growth of seven and a quarter percent however the OBR is likely to lower its growth expectations for 2022 overall though less economic scarring than expected may point to an earlier return to pre-pandemic output levels previously at second quarter 2022 and more positive medium term assumptions with technical perspective sterling trade into the trend line resistance found a bit of supply there profit taking but as this internal trend line supports now one just below 137 we look for a test of range resistance back up into that 139 80 area at this stage it would take a close below the trend line to suggest to move back down to test the monthly pivots and structural support just below 136 if we fail to find buyers there and we think about a retest 134 on route to that quality objective 133 20 but for now focus remains on the upside watch with bullish reversal patterns at the trend line to add to long positions targeting move up towards that late 139 area finally down under in Australia the main data of note will be Wednesday's Q third quarter inflation figures from Australia expected to maintain persistent pressure despite expected deceleration in year-over-year headline inflation central tendency estimates including trimmed mean and weighted mean CPI are expected to rise by half percent quarter non annualized and lift the year-over-year rates closer to the bottom end of the RDA's two to three percent target range for headline inflation that is expected to pull back close to three percent from technical perspective the the Aussie dollar traded into I'm just going to draw this in here for you we traded into an equality objective that we have been we've been tracking so we have this a b and we hit the c pretty much to the tick and found some supply there now we could have completed this corrective move the first indication that that scenario is playing out will be a loss of the pitchfork support here and the pivot there 73 77 but as this area does support so pullbacks watch with bullish reversal patterns here as an opportunity on the long side to target trend line resistance up to 76 14 but if we do lose the trend line support then we want to be looking for a retest of the 71 70 next week and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 25th of October as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much