 But as long as you're not wrong financially, as long as you're not sitting there like a mule fighting price action because you want the market you want, not the market you already have. So it's very, very important. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good afternoon everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com. We can update show hope everybody is doing well. Happy Martin Luther King Day. We are off on Tuesday in case some of you guys did forget. So hopefully you guys will recharge, get your thoughts together, enjoy this beautiful life of ours, and we'll see each other on Tuesday. So let's talk about the markets. What you know, more of the same, pretty much we have a big disconnection, pot name still very, very strong. You have EV names still very, very strong. You still have alternative energy, very, very strong. What's not strong against no really big secret here, it's a big cab beta, right? Big cab beta names are suffering. And despite what we're looking at on the Qs, and again you will not look at and see any really good guided information on the indexes, because again we're still rising so aggressively. More important is you're not going to get a lot of clues that something again might be very, very wrong. Now if you look at the long term trend, you'll see there's absolutely nothing to worry about, right? For now, you still have this really big rising wedge, and the wedge goes all the way back to 291 on the Qs, which ultimately is a very, very important area long term. We're not talking about long term. If you're new to this channel, I'm not a long term investor. One week I could be very, very bullish on Amazon. One week I could be bearish on Amazon. A long term, I agree with everybody. Of course the stock will be four, five, $6,000 a share, but I can give you my word from experience. It'll probably not be there at four, five, $6,000 a share by Tuesday. So what we're trying to do is just take advantage of short term trends. So if you are a longer term investor, the channel is probably not for you if you believe in technical analysis and take advantage of short term intervals being via technical analysis, price action, obviously macro events that are involved, then we have to really appreciate what the channels are trying to tell us. So what are the channels trying to tell us? Small cap stocks are very, very aggressive. If you look who's been dominating the action for the last several weeks has been the IWM. The IWM is composed on a lot of smaller cap names. They've been doing incredibly well. They've been on fire. I think that's the group that's been putting the euphoria into orbit between the small caps and the Tesla monster move and the Bitcoin monster move. This is one of the biggest euphoric markets I've ever seen. What we try to do every single week is not to start turning around and saying, look, the sky is falling, the sky is falling. All we're trying to do is educate levels on price areas that if the market does test, that euphoria is going to die down. So nobody's looking to, nobody's trying to be a Debbie down or nobody's trying to put yourself in a stage of siege that in one day something will happen. We just want you to make sure that you are aware of levels, that technical analysis is not subjective. It's very, very real. And when supply zones get confirmed, stocks go higher, when demand zones get confirmed, they go lower. And that's it. Because if you look at the QQQs for the last several weeks compared to the IWM, you'll see a huge, huge disconnect. Now again, if you look at the macro channel, nothing is wrong. I give you my word, nothing is wrong. But we're starting to look at levels and we're starting to gather information, more and more information every single week that we're starting to see even stocks that participated in any type of rally on a shorter term frame. For example, like an Amazon that had this really, really nice two-day pop a couple of weeks ago, gave it all up. Apple that really had a big, big run from confirming the October, the 12th channel is now in jeopardy kind of falling back into that channel. NVIDIA. And NVIDIA is a very, very kind of a real time example of what's happening here. NVIDIA has been stuck in this really aggressive range since November. And last week it was very, very strong. It had news from the NeoVent, one of the EV car makers that, hey, we're going to use NVIDIA chips in our rollout. And these are big news. These are big catalysts, especially from stocks that have been dead for a very, very long time. And look what happened. We lost it out of this channel. It had a good two-day run and it completely got sold on a really aggressive catalyst. And now we're literally a day or two away to revisiting back to the bottom channel. So this is very, very important. Microsoft that, again, had a really great 2020 has done absolutely nothing since September. And if you look at this bottom range here, you can see it's held this bottom channel here once, twice, three times, four times. So eventually maybe it does keep on defending that bottom range. But if it starts losing this bottom range, again, if you look at technical analysis in this purest form, stocks do go from demand to demand to demand to demand. And the big area on the cues are continued to be that 305 level that we've been kind of talking about and nausea for the last several times. It's got into that channel and to the bulls, kudos to the bulls. They held this level one, two, three times. So it is kind of the point of how many times can the damn hold, right? How many times can the damn hold without the water finally busting through? And that's a very, very major concern. And for all you guys who are really new to trading and turning around and saying, Dan, you're an idiot. Yes, I am an idiot. I'm the biggest idiot. King of the idiots. You're watching this broadcast. Nobody is dumber and hates themselves more than I do. But the reality is if you started trading long, long time ago and I started trading in 1999, we also have the same mind frame. The internet is great. The markets will never go lower. Nothing will ever. We're going to all retire before the age of 30, right? Buzzkill, Newsflash, right? Spoiler alert, I'm 46 years old. So there's a lot of common denominators that we've seen through euphoric markets in our past. We've learned our lessons. We try to not repeat our mistakes and repeat history. So we have to really understand levels and levels are going to save us. So if you are a longer-term investor and you love Microsoft and you turn around and say, Dan, you don't know what you're talking about. You could take your four double bottoms and you can go fly a kite. That's cool, right? That's great. If you're looking to hold Microsoft for 10 years, what's the point of even watching this channel? We're not telling you where Microsoft's going to be three weeks from now, a month from now, five years from now. I'm giving you an opinion of what's going to happen on short-term intervals if the trader aspect in you is participating in the market on an active basis. So it's very, very important to understand these levels because the last thing you want to do, if the dam does break and the water starts pouring out, the last thing you want to do, even if you are a longer-term investor and say, man, I remember watching that idiot's broadcast. I don't remember his name, but I remember he was a big, loud-mouth idiot. And the moral of the story was he kept on saying the bottom of the range, bottom of the range, bottom of the range. And now Microsoft is $40 lower. Maybe it will be. Maybe it won't be. Again, I'm not talking about a bearish tall. I'm not a bear. Right? I'm not a bear. I'm not a bull. And I'm an opportunist. I think a lot of us who've been trading the market for a very long time, we don't care the way the market goes up or down. We always prefer the market go higher, right? Everybody's better looking when the market goes higher. Everybody's in a better mood, right? Your penis is bigger. Everything, right? Everything feels good. Food tastes better. You're a fursible market, but we really don't care which way the market really flows. And you can literally just sit there and avoid that conversation with your buddies, with your wife, with your husband. How could anybody have seen this market turn into what it is? Who could have seen this coming? Again, all you need to do is watch technical analysis. So the big numbers kind of going forward is that 305 level on the queues. Maybe it gets there. Maybe it doesn't. Maybe we have this conversation a week from now and I am completely bullish, right? Again, we could be wrong as much as we want theoretically as long as you're not wrong financially. As long as you're not sitting there like a mule fighting price action because you want the market you want, not the market you already have. So it's very, very important. And I want to say something very, very bad. If you're very sensitive right now, I need you to leave your room, right? If you're one of these guys or gals or anybody else who's living on this planet, they are very sensitive and you love these stocks, please leave the room because I know how much people love their stocks and sometimes more than they love their kids. So I'm going to give you a minute. Okay, everybody out. Okay, let's now let the adults talk. We finally have a line in the sand on Tesla. We do. We really, really do. And a lot of people and if you've been watching this broadcast you know this is my favorite stock. I don't care which way it goes up, down, Elon Musk is a genius. I love the car. I love everything about the company. But I also love the fact that Arranges will give me a really good description or a really good clue of what happens next. We finally have a clue where a potential backside move has happened. If you guys remember last week I kind of included in the video that I said tops are not made in one day. Okay, there's no such thing as one day blow off top and the stock goes straight down. There's something called a rolling top. And what we've seen here now for the last four sessions, everybody see that? You're kind of getting, if you picture, you kind of get this rolling top, right? You get a high, a lower high, a lower high, a lower high, right? It's like it's a rolling top, right? And again, maybe we were using the word top wrong. I don't want to freak anybody out. Shut up there, it's going to 1,000. Leave the room, grown ups are talking. So what we're looking for right now is confirmation on this whole range here. You see this rising 10 day support, right? This whole ride days support. If it continues to put in rolling, rolling highs, right? Lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, and it tests this 10 day moving average. And this 10 day gets confirmed along with this bottom channel here from January the 11th, then look how much room you have down. Again, I don't want to freak anybody out. Maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn't. But if you are again, if you are a shareholder of Tesla and you don't want to be fiscally irresponsible, understand your levels. Gravity is real and Tesla as much as it is the greatest thing since Lysbright. I'm the biggest fan of everything. If those levels confirm and this rising wedge gets subjective to sellers overcoming buyers and they get cleaned up, there's a lot of room all the way down to the 739 area. Same thing with Roku. Again, I love Roku. I have no idea what Roku is. But I love it. I love trading it. It's a great stock. Absolutely great stock. If anybody knows what it is, I'm a size 12 and men's, European size maybe 10. I don't know what it is. But please, Roku in blue. So here's the area for all of us who are watching Roku. Maybe this thing goes to 500 one day. Maybe it goes to 1,000 one day. Again, it's not going to go to 500 or 1,000 on Tuesday. And here's another perfect example of the stock now starting to put in lower highs, lower highs on the rounding top. And you see, I was just kind of hugging the five day moving average every single time it's hit the five day it bounced, it hit the five day it bounced. Well Friday was the first time it didn't bounce. So we're now watching this bottom channel here. So Roku starts taking out this bottom channel here. Look how much room you have to the downside. Very, very aggressive. So our goal is to put everybody in a position of strength. I do believe, and if you watched last week's video, I think we're going to have the same thing this week. I think you're going to have still a lot of names that you're able to buy. A lot of aggressive money, a lot of speculation names, EVs still strong, SPAC is still strong, POTS stocks are still very, very strong. But if you do trade high flying beta momentum names, you already know how weak they've been for the last two weeks. And if we start confirming bottom channels, they're going to go lower. They're going to go lower. And again, the question is, is it going to happen this week, or is it, again, going to be a defending of price levels and these stocks are going to go higher? To be determined, right? To be determined. We don't want to guess. We're just collecting data. We're collecting data. And we want to make sure that if that data breaches and it gets confirmed, things are going to be very, very aggressive to the downside. So if you do look at Friday's pivots, and Friday was a very, very aggressive day. And it's kind of, it really is mirroring what I'm saying that's probably will happen in the up and coming week. Because this has been kind of the mantra of the market for the last several weeks. Everything else strong, right? Ozone. I mean, I don't even know what these stocks are. Ozone, DM, MVIS, right? Strong. What's weak? Think about it. What's weak? You're in the video. And this was definitely my biggest move, my biggest trade of the day. What the hell's in the video? The video, right? The video was definitely my biggest trade of the day. At one point, I was up nine points on it. My runner was like six and change. It cracked. Again, good news with NIO. They sold the news. Amazon confirmed a really, really minor channel on Friday. But this could be a series of events leading up to a big macro channel. So we have to be very, very conscious of what potentially could happen. So let's talk about Friday's session. FSLY 93 Needs to Build. Wasn't a big move. And here's the most important part. And this is what I mean about technology names being sold. So you had this really good channel, pretty good aggressive channel here that started about two weeks ago. Confirmed this 93 area. And it went to 95. So the initial move of $2 on a pivot is fine. There's nothing wrong with it. But usually when a stock is very, very strong and sentiment in that group continues to be very strong, then we'd be having this conversation somewhere around here to the next supply zone. The problem is it took out a two week range and went right back into the range with an inverted hammer, which is a sell signal, not good. Ozone, perfect example. Stock that usually one wouldn't watch. This is like, I think this is the, what is it? The Amazon of Russia? OK. Ozone 51, 51, 20 Needs to Build. Broke out on Friday. Again, this is a perfect example of speculation money continuing to be in the market. Took out this 51 level, went to almost 54. Cue never triggered. The video, definitely the trade of the day. 527, 526. Fit builds bloke and flush. That whole news of Neo using their chips. And Neo, by the way, is coming in as well. But Neo using their chips completely got thrown under the rug. And this was the pivot right here, 527, 526. And this thing got slammed, absolutely slammed. If the market continues to go weaker, it should test this 507 level. That the trade will begin if they start taking down this big macro range that started all the way down in October of this whole, excuse me, not October, November the 10th. If it starts taking down this whole range here, look how much room you have down. So there's a lot of possibilities if these stocks really start doing technical damage. So really, really be conscious of that. VGAC never confirmed. Here's a really pretty good move on Facebook to the upside. They got massive selling for the last several weeks. They got upgraded, 248, 80, 249 needs to build. See, I thought it was going to stop at 251. It didn't stop at 251. It actually went all the way up to almost 254. But here was the pivot right here. This whole little sneaky channel took out the 249. It went right to about 254. And they closed at 251, which is actually very, very important, because that's the level that needed to be rejected. So a nice move there. DM broke out. Actually, excuse me, it didn't break out. It took out a sneaky channel of 24, right? It took out a sneaky channel of 24. So here was the channel of 24 here, right? This whole channel here of 24. And it went to like 2530. It just missed the 52 week high. Keep an eye on this thing, guys. If this thing starts taking out this 52 high, it will go. So a nice $1.30 move on DM. I quote this MVIS. It was actually a nice little trade here. Very liquid, very aggressive. MVIS rejected twice at seven, needs to rebuild. Here was MVIS. Again, here's the move. Here's the channels here. Rejected twice at seven. Took out seven, put up a 50 cent candle. Pretty good move there as well. ZM, for all you guys who've been swinging ZM, since that 350 break last week, perfect move right to the 402 supply. It actually went to 404. Fubu got rejected now three days in a row, lower highs. This thing looks lower. Tesla, it had that 864 level. It never got close. We finally have a line in the sand. I'm not trying to freak anybody out. I know everybody loves the stock. Again, nobody loves it more than I do. But moral of the story is, if it starts taking out that bottom range, it's going to go lower. So keep an eye on that for this coming week. Surf, nice move from all you guys who quote this from Thursday, 1170, 1180, needs to build. Beautiful move on Surf. Nice move on Surf, S-U-R-F. Here was the breakout off this 1170 and it went all the way to 1350 on Friday. So beautiful, beautiful two-day move there as well. Amazon was the only other short for the day, 3119. Again, it wasn't supposed to be this massive move. The massive move will start below the channel but 3119 if it builds below can flush. Here was Amazon, right? You can see these two channels here. You see how two channels here held? 3120, 3120. So once it took out 3119, put in a low of 3095. The big move will be if it starts breaking below this channel here. So again, if all you guys did catch a good job there as well, MVIS was good. Here comes DM. Listen, I thought it was going to get down to 520. It just went through, it actually went to 512. My lowest cover was at 519. So really nice move on the video as well. So great morning. I mean, really, really good morning. And then it kind of just took it easy for the rest of the day. Going into this week, here's again, here's the numbers on the cues. First of all, we have to watch this sneaky area here of 310, right? If it's held 310 twice, if it starts building, then it goes to 305. 305 is going to be the big number, right? 305 will, in my opinion, could shift sentiment very, very quickly. Now we definitely have Lions in the sand for Roku, right? Off this channel here. We definitely have a rising support that we could attach a line in the sand to as Tesla as well. So for all you guys, for long-term traders, just please. If you don't want to have that conversation with yourself or with any of your buddies who could have seen this coming, I'm not saying this market is going to go to hell. Again, like I repeated a few minutes ago, but you have to obey these levels, right? Stay safe, everybody. Health is the most important thing. Love your family. We only have one life to live. Smile a little bit. Don't take life so personal. Just live your life and be happy. Guys, God bless. Have an excellent, enjoyable three-day vacation, and I'll see you guys on Tuesday. Take care, guys.