 So, I want to see who has early control of this 50-day moving average. If we open up lower and reclaim back the 50-day and start rallying. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Crazy day today, right? We'll get to that in a second. As always guys, just as a friendly reminder, please support the channel. Again, we try to give as much unbiased content as possible so you can make adult decisions on a day-to-day basis. So please, if you haven't done so, please like the video and if you are new to our platform, subscribe, right? Subscribe so you can get notified when we upload. So, let's talk about the tape, right? Number one, I'm going on my 24th year and I have every video that I've recorded on the platform. I basically, I'm there to tell you that I'm an idiot like everybody else, right? I think that's the most important part to understand. We're all idiots, okay? We don't know what's going to happen a week from now, three weeks from now, three months from now, three years from now. The only thing we do is get prepared. We do our best to get prepared for the next day, put ourselves in a position that we are going with the win, not against it and hopefully our research from the night before gets confirmed and everything plays out, right? So, keep that in mind. Keep that in mind every single day when you are going to the day. Again, I've always said this. If you are trying to convince everybody that you are the smartest person in the room, you're only trying to convince yourself. Nobody cares. There's no brownie points. Nobody's keeping scored. We're trying to do our best that whatever capital we have, that capital comes back with some friends at the end of the day. If not, we try to figure out what went wrong, what possibly could we've done better, make adjustments and get ready, right? And get ready for the next day. And, you know, just kind of going back for the last four or five days. So, we reclaimed the 50-day moving average four days ago, right? Above this 27760s area. Everybody see it, right? That's the 50-day, which translated later in the last four days was a pretty significant rally. If you've been watching this broadcast, Tesla One nuts yesterday, NVIDIA, Amazon One nuts, you know, meta has been strong, you know, everything under the sun, Microsoft got downgraded, you know, pretty much negated downgraded, rallied, Apple strong, so forth and so on. But the one thing that we always talk about in a trend type of scenario, when we started talking about last year, even though we were in an 80% predominant cell bias market, you're always going to have the reverse trend days. So, basically, if we're in a down market, you're going to have updates, right? When you're in an up market, you can have reverse down days. And I said this every single video, a trend doesn't mean straight up. A trend doesn't mean straight down. It just means that the overall directional bias is going to be in that direction. And you can see pretty much that played out in the last five days. We've had one down day, right? We had one down day in the last five days. The only difference between a down day that could have been, you know, a very mini school versus a down day that closed where it did today, and we'll get the ramifications in a second, we are setting up into a very, very interesting part for tomorrow, right? Where the bulls are going to be faced with who's going to have control over the 50-day. We know we lost the 50-day here, what happened later, we know we reclaimed the 50-day, we know what happened later. And you can see here, we closed right on the 50-day, within literally within 10 cents of the 50-day moving average, which is going to be a very, very important day for tomorrow. So if we have a scenario that the market gaps up, right, and we lose today's ranges, that's not good, right? It's not good. However, in a weird way, in a weird way, it would be almost beneficial. Like if we closed a dollar away from the 50-day, then going into tomorrow and said, hey guys, let's play that 50-day bounce, and we should hold that 50-day the first time around. But the fact that we came in so close to the 50-day moving average on the close, it's almost in a weird way, right? In a very odd way, it's almost in an odd way. We almost want a gap down tomorrow so the bulls can shake off the gap down and reclaim back the 50-day moving average while taking everything red to green, right? That's what we want. If you're a bull, that's exactly what you want. The last thing you want is a very insignificant gap up tomorrow, right? Let's just say 10, 15, 20 handles on the NASDAQ futures and the NASDAQ futures confirm today's channel back to the downside. And if we get a close below 277, again, for tomorrow, well, tomorrow, there is no tomorrow, and I rest on Thursdays. But for the weekend video, we're going to have a completely different conversation or at least a completely different conversation potential for Friday's session. So we don't want that. So I think for tomorrow, I don't want to use the word. It's an important day or it's a crucial day. But I want to use that word because, again, you could clearly see just what your eyes said. How important who has control over the 50-day moving average will have a very, very beneficial idea of which way the wind is going to blow going into Friday's session. So it's super-duper important. When you look at all the other indexes, this is where your eyes start to get a little wider. When you look at the diamonds, yesterday they were down roughly 400 points. We're going to use the diamonds as a proxy for the Dow Jones. Yesterday, and I joked around about it, we were down 400 points on the Dow. We didn't feel it. We didn't feel it just because so many NASDAQ names are strong. But yesterday they lost 400 points, and today they lost another 600 points. So 1,000 points is not small. Granted, you have exactly the same scenario here with the Dow Jones industrial average just the same way we've had. We are having right now with the Qs. The diamonds broke out above 334. They broke out above 334 this whole level. Here, in this case, we closed below the 50-day moving average on the diamonds. If you look at the spies, they did exactly the same thing as the Qs. They broke out above here around this 389 level. They got down to this right above the 50-day moving average. So you're going to have a very, very interesting day. My advice, especially for the neutral, hell of a lot, for any trader, I was about to say for the new traders, for any traders, let's see how the market opens up tomorrow. Again, it's not that I'm necessarily bullish or buried. How can you definitively turn around today and say, well, I'm definitely bullish for tomorrow? Or turn around and say, I'm definitely bearish for tomorrow? If we're closing right in the Mason-Dixon line that anybody who has control of this big moving average is going to probably have control for the foreseeable future. So I want to make sure that two things we're going to do for tomorrow. Let the market play out in the first 10, 15, 20 minutes. Again, there's only six channels of the day. For all you guys who don't know who are relatively new to this channel, the PS60 theory is pivots supply via the 60-minute interval. There's only six candles for the day versus the smaller time frames. So the first channel of the day confirms at 10 o'clock. Right? So I want to see who has early control of this 50-day moving average. If we open up lower and reclaim back the 50-day and start rallying, then obviously we want to watch the opening range highs. That's obvious, okay? However, if we gap up and we confirm today's channels and lose the 50-day moving average, I just want us to be prepared on the short side as well, just in case. And there's a lot of names if you look at going through the NASDAQ 100, there's a lot of names, right? A lot of names that are mirroring exactly what the indexes are doing. So it's not going to take you a long time today to make yourself an actual watchlist on both long and short, right? So for example, a name like NVIDIA is actually holding up various. One of the very few stocks that didn't take out the previous day's low, right? You know, this and a stock like Tesla, and we'll get the Tesla in a second, right? Didn't take out the previous day's low, but there's a lot of stocks that did. And that's the most important part. So the stocks that didn't take out the previous day's low today, those are the ones you want to keep an eye on for tomorrow, right? For potential washout, rent to green, opening range high, but anything that's taking out today's lows, right? Potentially taking out today's lows and confirm them tomorrow, they're going to be on the chopping block in case the Qs lost their, lose their ranges for tomorrow's session, which, you know, tomorrow is definitely setting up on one of those days, one of those days, you know, let's listen to the market, right? Don't judge, don't anticipate, don't have an opinion tomorrow, right? Tomorrow is legitimately a 50-50 shot. The fact that we closed right on its breakout level, where we broke out only five days ago, it's a toss-up. So the worst possible thing for us to happen tomorrow is a flat open. We don't want that, okay? That's the one thing because what's going to happen is a lot of people are going to get too anxious. A lot of people are going to start thinking and overthinking without letting the market kind of dictate to us what should be doing, right? So that 10 o'clock channel tomorrow is going to be super-duper important. I'm usually in, you know, I'm in some things most of the time before that 10 o'clock channel because the research confirms and things usually go pretty orderly, pretty uniform, but for tomorrow's session, I'm probably 90% sure that I'm going to let the first, you know, 15, 20, 30 minutes play out until that 10 o'clock is checked because we don't want to guess, guys, because if you start guessing and forecasting and having an opinion, there's a good chance, you know, higher probability than not because we are all bad guesses that we're going to get run over. We don't want to get run over, okay? This is not a game of chance. This is not a game of, let me show everybody how intelligent I am. This is a game of price action confirmation and the fact that we are going into tomorrow's session with such a definitive line in the sand for both bull and bear. It's not just for the bull case, for the bear case as well, because if the bears want to take back control, they got to close below the 50-day moving average. So yes, in the beginning of the video, I said, I don't want to over, you know, over hype what I think is going to happen tomorrow over sensationalized. But again, as we're seeing and we're chatting here and we're seeing how important these levels are, I think tomorrow might be one of those sessions that if you are patient, you are going to get kind of more clues, more validity, more clarity, especially on the 10 o'clock channel, which way the wind is going to blow. And again, we could easily have a situation tomorrow that, you know, we gap down, reclaim the 50, and just start rallying again. Because again, everybody knows that before you can have the next leg up, you know, a very, very aggressive next leg up, we do have to retest back a major level that it reclaimed on supply. And that's exactly what we did today. So hopefully tomorrow we could get a cleaner look. So again, today's session, you know, today's session was choppy. I think that's the best way of saying it. Number one, congratulations for all you guys who came in Long Tesla. That was obviously, you know, I woke up today at five o'clock in the morning, and I was tweeting at five o'clock in the morning. Tesla gapped up another $6 today. I go $138 supply on deck. If you are long equity kick out a half, two thirds. If you are long calls, and that's the whole point of, you know, there's a whole big discussion. What's better, equity versus options, right? There's pros and cons. And obviously, I'm not really, I really only feel like going into a whole discussion about that now. But one of the greatest things about trading equity, and there's obviously a lot of pros and cons is, again, well, you have four o'clock in the morning to get your, you know, to get your engines rubbing, rubbing, right? The problem is if you're trading on the option side, you have to wait till the open. However, if you are long calls, and this is kind of the whole point, you really have to learn how to kind of almost take out your position and start getting out your position by shorting, by shorting the equity versus your call so you can start pairing out your position. And that's exactly basically my comments around eight o'clock in the morning. If you are long equity kick out two thirds, a half to two thirds of your position. If you are long calls, you might want to short some equity against your position. If you're an experienced trader, there's some PBI numbers, doesn't make a difference, what came out at 830. Again, big move on Tesla, congratulations. That's pretty much set the tone for the whole day. It was about five, six points pre-market, which is awesome. Obviously, everything else stopped that break even. And then you have a scenario that pretty much everything failed, right? And that's the most important part, like bulls got tired, there was overextended move, buyers, the way the sellers were tied three, four days ago, buyers became tired today. And a lot of things really failed. You had square, 75, 80. We talked about this last night, only went up 40 cents and died. PLTR, 716, 720 needs to build. It went to 730 and then died. Doc, you never got up to the macro level. Pan W, you know, did okay, right? Pan W rallied about $2, a little less than $2, 143, 75 needs to build. NVIDIA never built above the 78 level. And the case in point, that's kind of my whole point. For experienced traders, once in the eight needs to build, stock has held, has gone on an insane four day at 17 points in four day. If you are trading NVIDIA today, scale down to a quarter or a third size, maximum one point for a potential another push. Obviously, everything got tired. Netflix had a $1.5, $2 move to the downside, snapped right back. They report earnings tomorrow and kick off earning season. Meta never got up there. Amazon never confirmed. Here is one of the very few shorts that we were looking at. NVIDIA, $74.90 if it builds below can flush. Here is NVIDIA. And again, I still like, I think NVIDIA still looks good. But for today, just kind of lost its opening range. And as the market was coming in, here's the $74.90, right? Here's $74.90. You know, went down a couple of bucks, wasn't really a lot of fear there. And I think that's about it. I think that's about it. Yeah, there was a bunch of bounces today. We bounced Tesla a couple of times decent cues, not a big move on the cues. Got down to $79.70, bounced about $0.50, $0.60, and then lost support. This is why we always harper on the idea of, hey, take money on the way up, use break even as you stop. May your worst problem be a partial victory versus, oh my God, what the hell is going on? Please God, don't let my position keep on going lower. So that's basically it, right? That's basically it. Look, I think tomorrow is going to be important. Again, I'm not rushing out of the gate to have an opinion, to have a course of action. I really want to see who has control. I would love to see the bulls. Nothing would make me happier to see the bulls reclaim that 50 day moving average tomorrow. Fight, trap, go red to green and have, you know, resumption of this rally that we had started five days ago. But at the end of the day, guys, I understand I'm not a bull. I'm not a bear. I'm an opportunist. And technical analysis is the only thing that I trust as far as price action to come. So guys, have a great night. Stay blessed. Tomorrow, again, is Thursday. It's my normal night off. So there is no video for all you guys who are joining us tomorrow in the live webinar. Looking forward to working with you. If not, see the rest of you guys on the the weekend update. Take care, everybody. Have a great night.