 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are less than one week away from the opening matches of the 2022 FIFA World Cup We're gonna break down some of those with dr. Ed fang of the power ankle have them on talk about that and also Take my first look at NFL week number 11 based on my numbers fun show coming up Let's dive on in and get it all started. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire Dot-com my name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot-com and as I mentioned we talking about NFL week number 11 Later on Dave you want to find that search for the timestamp in the show notes over on number fire dot-com the first Let's talk some World Cup We got Ed fang on here to break down what his numbers you can find that on Twitter at the power rank and the power rank Dot-com Ed will be with us as well tomorrow talk about college football week number 12 But Ed it is your time to shine. How you do it today? I'm doing really well decided to put on the US kit because I figure I could save the Germany in the Brazil kit for for later in the tournament But pretty excited that the World Cup is going on would still rather have it in June But I can't do anything about that and it's gonna be fun and US plays what Monday at 2 p.m. Eastern Yeah, they play whales at 2 p.m. Eastern time So it's actually an unmanageable time slot which is fun. We can have some games on during work I can get behind that for sure. Yeah for sure. I will definitely have that on try to try to save the mornings for doing actual work but you know definitely have that game on and This is yeah, it's gonna be awesome. Yeah, the first match is on Sunday 11 a.m. Eastern So little appetizer before NFL starts on Sunday, which would be fun I've enjoyed that this year with F1 having that on the morning from Sundays go F1 then NASCAR then NFL Or if there's like a London game or whatever that's been nice So World Cup can slide into that Sunday morning slot and I'm pretty happy about that Yeah, I mean, okay Sunday morning. Yeah, that's fine I don't think I don't think a lot of our regular crowd is really gonna be watching those Saturday and Sunday World Cup matches until it gets Pretty late, but but see like I'm doing NFL stuff on Sunday mornings. I need a distraction So I actually I'm pro Pre NFL sporting events like if NASCAR was like hey Jim We'll run these races at 10 a.m. For you during NFL season I would sign up immediately. No thought no thought involved right away I would do it and then this past week you get a bunch of Germans singing country road Yeah, and then a film game. How weird was that? Well, like they they like got to the West Virginia part and I'm like I'm curious like because I spent some time in West Virginia lived in Clarksburg for a bit I'm curious what Germans think West Virginia is like because like I think it's very pretty like if there's a lot of mountains It's it's fun area. It was not fun on my car's transmission to drive around there But like it's a very pretty area, but I'm very curious like what what do Germans think West Virginia is like Do they know what sheets is I assume not But like what is sheets? So you're you're from around Philadelphia. You have Wawa Sheets is like Western Pennsylvania West Virginia. It's like the Wawa of that area and Both are amazing. I I refuse to pick. They're both amazing. Is this a newer thing? It might be It was so I was in West Virginia in 2013 2014 I think And it was there then and it's like made to order sandwiches like it's it's real So I'm a quick trip guy. So I'm from the Midwest. I love quick trip would die for quick trip I would at least consider sacrificing myself for sheets. That's kind of the level devotion So we need to get sheets to Germany I think it's a big takeaway here to let them realize that West Virginia has more to offer Than just this John Denver song Yeah, I've never heard of sheets. I spent a lot of time in Pittsburgh. So I'm guessing it's a more recent thing Next time you go ahead Treat yourself Get a $5 sub go to town. It's a it's a good time for sure. Let's talk about World Cup now We had your a brief rundown of what your your world soccer rankings look like last week on the Wednesday show People want to hear that discussion. I put the timestamp in the episode description, too So if you want to jump ahead to what adds rankings were you can find that there but now we have our first match as I said on Sunday, which means we're taking those numbers and Trying to convert them into game level projections But there's a lot of intricacies involved with that because you have draws as being part of the equation So what does the process look like converting your world soccer rankings into a game level projection? Everything revolves around estimating the goal rate for each team in a game I do that based on my My world rankings which has a component for both offense and defense for these international teams It looks at a five-year window. So it includes the last World Cup World Cups games are matches are weighted four times as much as a friendly So to try to capture that as well That does not do any favors for Germany who I think are a little bit low in those rankings But once you have those rankings you can estimate a goal rate Which is actually very similar to how I estimate points in football once you have the goal rate You assume everything is random according to those rates and you can simulate out these games however many times you want and Look at the probability for win probability for a draw Probability for a tie you actually get a score when you do the simulation And the score is actually important when I simulate out the entire tournament because you need goal difference to figure out who's gonna advance Out of the group stage so on and so forth So yeah in a nutshell that's basically what happens you know from group you go from world rankings which take these results over the last five years and evaluate the teams on offense and defense and then you estimate a goal rate and Then you estimate what happens in the match now when you run those numbers. Are you? Seeing that these markets are pretty efficient for like the match level betting and Are you looking to bet those or for you is it more so betting futures markets based on what your simulations are saying? I Haven't actually run the game-by-game simulations, but I would I think those are probably the most efficient markets in the world I mean if I remember Rapazola before Euro last year said pinnacle was taking like 50,000 on a game The morning before a Euro Match so that should tell you all you need to know about how efficient that market is I would tend to stay away from that I think the outright is Probably a little bit more value if you want to jump on a match Bet like I would do it right after the previous game ends and see if the bookmakers may be overreact on an opening line Sure, but I think it's really similar to the NFL This market is going to be very efficient by the the morning before the match if you want to bet early great you know knock yourself out if you want to you know if you want to bet totals probably a little bit better and You know, there's there's a ton of like auxiliary bets that you can get on fan duel I'm gonna talk a little bit later today about some some bets to win the group and to advance because I do think there's some value there and Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think it's I think I would stay away from those outright markets the day before the morning of matches and I would actually you know try to use that as a source of truth Moving forward in evaluating these teams and I think that's tough part too with these ones that are up now They've been up for a long time the matches the opening edges They've been round into efficiency for a pretty long market now So I think it makes sense to potentially shy away from those But you said that you had some group bets you like based on what your numbers are saying Which ones stood out to you when you're looking at what you could find there This bet came out of just looking at the outright markets and seeing Argentina as the second favorite And thinking that they're horrendously overrated as the second favorite My numbers actually sense the history that I've been running them over. I don't know 15 years I've never thought Argentina was that good there might have been a time in which they thought they were better But they are ninth in my world rankings right now and I think part of the hype over Argentina is That they won Copa America last year they beat Brazil in the final messy finally got his trophy on the international level But that that hides the fact that like Brazil dominated that game Argentina got one counter-attacking goal by on healthy Maria in that game and Brazil dominated and You know, there's some other results. Oh and Messi wasn't that good You mess he's getting a little bit older. Can he still dominate Mexico and Poland? Yeah, probably but I'm not You know when that competition gets really tough I'm not sure he's the same player that I actually I know he's not the same player that he was eight years ago but Yeah, I just don't see it in the rest of this Argentina squad on healthy Maria Like I talked about was the player that scored in that cup final He's actually not playing a ton for Juventus right now During the season he probably starts for them, but we'll see how that goes And I feel like we know what Mexico and Poland are they are good They're also in group B Mexico is somewhere between the 15th and 25th best team in the world right now My numbers have them a little bit behind the US oftentimes. They're a little bit ahead of the US solid football playing nation Poland is just a really good solid European team that also happens to have one of the Best goal scorers in the world Robert Lewandowski Who plays for Barcelona now is is also getting old but is also bagging a ton of goals In in La Liga this year as well. So like I feel like I understand those two teams Are they should they win the group either of those teams win that group? No But I'm given Poland about 19 and a half percent chance. I'm giving Mexico about 18 and a half percent chance. Both of them are plus 490 to win the group on fan duel so I will I will fade that that's my way of fading Argentina and Yeah, both of those and they play each other in the first match and it kind of really doesn't matter What happens? I guess right if you have both teams Maybe Poland has a little bit more upside because Levin Dotsky is fantastic but Yeah, that that's that's the better like at this point you can also I don't know if you'd want to do this But you can bet like the exact order. I'm just gonna you know list off like different options You have if you if you decide okay, I agree Ed. I want to fade Argentina now. Let's say You agree that Argentina is going to advance but you're not total cuz like you bet them not to advance They're they're eight to one there. That might be a bit of a stretch, but you could leverage the thoughts on Poland and Mexico and Potentially look into the exact order finishes you could go with you know Poland or Mexico first Argentina second and that way you're getting pretty decent odds on that kind of thing and I think that that is at least somewhat intriguing. I wish there were a market I don't see one right now at least a faddle where you could bet Where it's either Mexico or Poland to win Versus that kind of thing you could bet groups see runner-up to be Argentina plus 320 I think that's one way to do it but I think that the overall takeaway is that You've got a lot of options in these markets and I would just kind of dive through take an assumption like Ed was talking about Argentina's overrated and then try to identify The best rapper taking advantage that Ed found Poland and Mexico to win the group at plus 490 that way That's one way But there are a lot of other options too as ways you can leverage an assumption into finding the best way to bet that Absolutely any other ones you saw when you were looking at the group bets for right now I'm those are the ones. I like the most. I'll continue to be looking at those I think we're gonna talk in coming weeks and I'll have more there in terms of the group Just one more insight and I haven't turned this into a bet yet But a lot of fans of the US men's national team They were talking about the Wales game as kind of the key if you win the Wales game You're pretty much through and while I don't necessarily disagree with that and the US and Wales are you know I mean, they're the second best group. Neither of those teams are as good as England But what I think people are missing is that Iran is not some push over this country has 80 million people and they're They're they're not a slouch the 30 second in my numbers and that definitely makes them the worst group So for example, the US is like 16th and Wales is like 20th So Iran is the worst team in the group, but they are also like the second best worst team amongst the eight groups so they they're not really a pushover and I wouldn't be surprised to see them maybe get a win at some point here So I guess I would say like don't discount Iran like that third match is Still matters even if you know, the US is on four points and likely to go through Not not a pushover by any stretch should be a competitive group and You know, I don't put it past England to play some absurd ridiculous defensive style and managed to lose a match in this too so it could be really interesting and in group B and Yeah, just don't don't discount Iran Okay, so the US opening match is on Monday at 2 p.m. Eastern the Iran versus England match is Monday at 8 a.m So we got games all day Monday that is gonna be a whole lot of fun And and you have your win probabilities up as well over the power rank is that is that gonna be updating like nightly or how will that work? Oh I mean You know, my plan is to have that up right now. So if you need to bet Those those are those are that come from my model the they're not perfect I mean they have Belgium as the second favorite, which I think we talked about Yeah, is Belgium has been a great team But they have a very old defensive line and then I also figure out Romelu Lukaku the striker that I've been talking about He's actually hurt. That's why he isn't playing for enter He is on the squad, but not gonna be fit until probably the knockout stage. So they're taking a little bit of a risk there I mean the man's fantastic. So they I mean they can't be the second favorite if they don't have him, right? and You know, Germany seems a little bit low Germany's 12th in my numbers, which Doesn't really make sense to me Germany's great soccer playing nation they have a ton of stars and They might actually have an advantage In so this is a crazy World Cup, right? Like the Premier League the Bundesliga a lot of the top leagues played matches this past weekend And they are now getting on training going to Qatar and getting ready for this World Cup That's not how this usually happens usually happens after the end of the European Club season Teams are have a camp for like almost a month you play some friendlies and then you go to the World Cup Yeah, that's not happening this year and That actually may be an advantage to Germany just because so many of their regulars play for Bayern Munich They're two center backs play for Dortmund. There is a little bit of a sense that they the The guys that Germany's counting on play together regularly. Yeah for their club team. Is that going to give them a badge? I don't know. We'll see they actually have a really tough group. They have Spain in that group They start with Japan. Japan is no slouch There's somewhere in that that Mexico US range of goodness. So yeah, it should be interesting Yeah, I think Germany could could do pretty well, although I like Spain. Yeah, well, yeah, well, it'll be fun Again match first match is on Sunday morning. That's gonna be a delight. Check out the group C stuff again over at Fandle To see if you want to find something there with Argentina with Poland in Mexico But we'll see and Ed we're gonna talk to you once again tomorrow for some college football But I appreciate the time for today. I'm looking forward to talking more World Cup with you as the as everything goes along I'm looking forward to it as well. Thanks Jim. Alrighty, that is Ed fang check him out on Twitter at the power rank I put a link to his win probabilities in the show notes over on number fire as well So if you want to find that check those out go to number fire check out the show notes He can click on that there where it says the power rank Well, look at week number 11 in the NFL in a just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering this spread wherever you get your podcast We of course aren't up a podcast spotify stitcher Google podcast if you name it you can find us there and while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Now is the perfect time to download Fandle America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to one a thousand dollars That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win try out free features like same-game parlays Play your way and bet on more than just the final score wager on everything in touchdowns till yards to catches all on an app That's safe secure and super easy to use So sign up today for your no sweat first bet make every moment more this season with fandle Official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states first online a real money wager only Refund issued is non-let's rob a free bet that expire in 14 days Restrictions applies to your terms at sportsbook.fandle.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over the fandle.com slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next up to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org sess chat in Indiana 109 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling help calm in Well, Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 and 7 7 8 hope and wire text open y In Tennessee call the red line at 1 800 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 Let's shift our focus now to the NFL and break down NFL week number 11 based on what my numbers are saying relative To the opening numbers over a fandle sportsbook as of right now. I've got two bets I'm locking in now one I'm likely to lock in later on this week the first one that I am taking is a Jets plus three and a half That's minus 120 over at fandle sportsbook. It is That is plus three and a half minus 120. It is plus three at minus 105 elsewhere I'd rather take the three and a half and I do think fandle will get to get to three eventually So I'm gonna take the Jets plus three and a half right now I know that means I am betting a skittish deer like young quarterback against Bill Belichick Which is very very scary But the Patriots offense is also pretty scary not in the good way My traditional model which does include a prior still has the Patriots offense ranked 29th in the league right now And that's going up against the Jets defense which ranks fifth now The same is true on the opposing side where the the Patriots offense is definitively better than the Jets offense But the Jets great out is a better offense than the Patriots right now weirdly I know that might seem odd but They faced a lot of tough matchups. They've been okay in some of them They had a shot to win this game in the first meeting and I know you know, that's a Bit odd because Zach Wilson tried to throw that game away short-circuited a couple times under pressure and It is fully within the range of outcomes that could happen once again And that's why we're getting three and a half right now on this match But I think the Patriots are a little bit worse than perception. So even with this being at minus 120 I am gonna take the plus three and a half on the Jets. I think that's the right way to go with this one I do think it will get to three at Fandall eventually, but I'll take three and a half in the Jets at minus 120 With that still being available The other spread I want right now is the Cardinals plus eight against the 49ers. This game is in Mexico City So neutral site game not getting a home field bump for the Cardinals But my numbers have this game at five and a half in favor of San Francisco. So I'm getting six I'm getting seven I get a push on eight, which is some nice flexibility The Cardinals might not have Kyler Murray, but we saw them play pretty well with Colt McCoy this past week They played above expectation against the Rams McCoy played decent overall so that's encouraging and The Cardinals overall since they got Deandre Hopkins back have been much better on late down Their late down success right early on this year was his like they were awful Relative expectation on late downs. They bet a lot better since they got Deandre Hopkins back now Zach Hertz is a contributor on third downs and not having him could hurt that but It's not as impactful for me to lose Zach Hertz as it was to gain Deandre Hopkins. The 49ers They're a very volatile team in terms of how well their offense plays They have awesome games from a passing efficiency perspective. They have like spike games but they also have some duds and Last week against the Chargers at least in early downs was a dud they did make up for it by playing well on third and fourth now, but Kind of don't want to bank on that as much if you're trying to win predictably now That volatility could push you towards the Arizona money line versus the spread at plus eight, but There are a lot of outcomes a lot of paths to a plus eight for Arizona here So I'm gonna take that the plus eight is minus one ten if annual unit Kyler does wind up sitting I don't think that'll impact my views here too much just because we've seen Colt McCoy play well Both last year and this year to the point where I think we can Reliably expect them to be decent in this one. So I will take the Cardinals plus eight on the neutral site down in Mexico City One number I'm not betting now, but I'm likely to add is the Falcons against the Bears right now That's the Falcons minus three The bear side the plus three is minus 112 There's been a lot of positive buzz around Justin Fields right now just justifiably so he's look great He's been super super fun to watch. He's made this offense better But that buzz leads me to think there's a chance this game comes under a field goal We get it a two and a half eventually and that would make a pretty big difference So I'm gonna keep an eye on the Bears plus three. I want the Falcon side here I'm gonna keep an eye on the Bears plus three right now It's minus 112 if it moves to minus 115 or so Then I'm gonna wait because I think that that indicates that I'll be able to hold out and potentially Get a two and a half at some point On the opposing side if it moves down to minus 110 or so I'll probably just take the Falcons me done with it under the assumption that we're not gonna see any more movement towards the Bears My guess is will see a shift towards the Bears, but I want the Falcons So what I would do is open a Fandal sportsbook right now It's probably changed since I recorded this on Tuesday morning and check out what that bears plus three number is if it's Minus 110 or shorter I would just take the Falcons because that indicates that the movement is done towards the Bears if it is Minus 115 or so that means it's probably it's two and a half and I'd rather hold off. So I want the Falcons at some point not sure when that'll wind up happening but Keeping on things right now to get a better read on that market and we'll likely take the Falcons Eventually, you just want to see where the market is going first The other spot where my numbers are showing value, but I'm not betting right now Is on the Falcon or the Titans plus three? That's minus one away to a Fandal I'm holding up on this one because of injuries on the Titans defense because Jeffrey Simmons specifically Missed last week. He was a DNP on Monday's practice report If I take Simmons out for the Titans That's probably gonna make it where the Titans are still under value But not undervalued enough where I'd want to bet the spread If we get the read that he'll play Different story like if he practices on Tuesday that happens then maybe I could see myself going here But right now I've got this game as Green Bay by point eight seven So that's enough for me to typically bet it But with the concerns around the injuries and also the fact that my 2022 only model says the Packers should be favored by more so disagreeing between the two models here I'm okay missing out on this one. I Don't see myself betting it. I need something to change to justify but for right now I'm okay missing out at the Titans. Do you want to cover it? So for now just do best for me That's the jets at plus three and a half at minus 120 the Cardinals at plus eight at minus one one ten Keeping an eye on Bears Falcons that spread as I will likely have the Falcons eventually just want to see where it goes first And then the one I'm unlikely to bet unless we get some good injury news is he Titans plus three against the Packers so light cards so far for the NFL We'll talk once again Thursday to see if I do add more on that side But for right now, I'm okay sending power at those two with the third likely to come later on Before we finish up for today got a recap last week on the show And we had Ed on earlier talk some World Cup and Ed's college football numbers did really well last week He went to one-on-one got good movement on all four games not just like a point He got like two or three points on most or one and a half on most of these The push was on LSU minus three that closed at minus six They won that game by three so that one of being a push but three points of movement is pretty sweet so a good call by Ed despite the push there the Lost was TCU Texas the total for that game was 64 and a half close at 66 That one finished with just 27 but again point a half a movement So miss on that one But good movement the two wins were a pit minus three and a half in Washington plus 13 and a half Obviously the pit one kind of sad now given the tragedy UVA underwent on Sunday night So that one's tough close at five and a half pit one by 30 So easy cover there for Ed Washington closed at plus 12 and then won that game outright so We've seen all year that Ed's numbers are getting good movements the market consistently moves in his favor and It was nice that this week the results followed suit to get him to reward him for that good movement So again check out Ed on Twitter at the power rank. We'll have him back on Tomorrow talk some college football for week number 12 with a special guest on that one as well JJ Zachary's was on our Friday show. He had both of his yardage props in that one He had Donovan people's Jones over 43 and a half receiving yards. He had almost a hundred He had five deep targets in that game led the team with nine targets He was sick other one with Saquon Barkley were 92 and a half rushing yards He had 150 or so in that game So hit both pretty easily nice hits there JJ also had a DPJ touchdown bet that one I think was plus 280. He didn't score neither did say Jones at three to one, but The yardage props did hit in situations to monitor. We talked about the cheese backfield JJ said he wanted to bump up Isaiah Pacheco in what was likely to be a positive script for the cheese Pacheco played more than half the snaps. He had 80 rushing yards So no touchdowns, but the rushing department Pacheco is great. So good call by JJ there other two situations where the bucks backfield Rashad white fully took over this week and split snaps in the first half before the four-net injury Other one of the Steelers passing in without chase Claypool They were actually able to run the ball pretty effectively for once doesn't happen very often but it did here so that one didn't pan out but Nice to hit both the artist props for JJ check out JJ on Twitter at late round QB and check out his work over at late round Com Ryan went three and three on Sunday and that had really nice Monday night Hit a couple underdogs who won outright in the Cardinals and the Packers also had the Chargers to cover plus seven Losses Ryan a Seattle plus three Vikings bills under 43 and a half and the Bears minus three Then last night Ryan missed on the total but hit on a healthy number of props the touchdown props that that Ryan mentioned last night were Ryan Robinson plus 230 Dallas Goddard two to one and Jalen hurts even money They all hit all three guys score touchdown. So nice job by Ryan on those He also queues Watkins over 11 and a half receiving yards and Terry McClaren over 49 and a half Watkins had I think like 80 yards and a key fumble because of course McClaren went for like a buck 28. So easy over there easy overs on those Mrs. Word the total as mentioned Davante Smith Smith over 52 and a half Dallas Goddard over 45 and a half and then Taylor Heineke Over 220 a plus 114 but the touchdowns combined with the other props made it a profitable night and a good read overall by Ryan So check out Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscored W I had a profitable week even though I picked poorly on some of the bets to include again Uh, I missed on the Broncos and Seahawks money lines Those were plus 124 and plus 130 respectively hit on the lines of plus 128 their money line And then at the chargers plus seven against the 49ers they lost by six to cover that one. So profitable week the reason that I'm frustrated with that though is because my model my traditional model Had value on six different spreads this week and all six one The problem was I took two money lines where I wasn't showing value on the spread And both those wound up losing so if I'd just taken the six spreads that my model showed value on I would have been six and no didn't do that as far as the money line goes Uh, there were nine different spots from my model showed value last week Six of them won five of those were underdogs I picked two of the losers and had the Eagles in a parlay as well last night They showed value there that one obviously did not win. So My numbers did well I profited but it kind of feels like a missed opportunity You don't get a six and no week very often so to miss out on it a bit frustrating, but I'm very encouraged with my numbers have done recently. I feel pretty good heading into this week. It seems like I don't know I feel like It might have just been variants that things weren't going well earlier on this year getting Good movement seeing the results and both the money line and the spread the spread model Feeling a bit better there. So could have been a better week but kind of hard to get too upset about it when the numbers were good overall, so Feels like a bit of a miss chance, but still I feel pretty good heading into week number 11 We'll see if those Bets pan out again always scared about in the cardinals scared to bet on the jets against the patriots, but Hopefully the numbers keep up the good momentum from this past couple of weeks That is all that we have here for today on our world cup preview and our first look at NFL week number 11 But as mentioned Ed was back with us tomorrow to break down college football week number 12 And f l week 11 coming up thursday and props coming up friday So to get all those as they are posted make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well big Thank you once again to dr ed fang Check him out on twitter at the power bank check out his work at the power bank.com find his world cup win probabilities there as well I am on twitter at jim sanis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across the next couple of days We'll talk to you once again tomorrow afternoon to break down college football week number 12 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network