 Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer, my capital today is Tuesday October 7th It's around 7 o'clock New York time. So the economic calendar for this entire week is very empty and one of the Stranger periods of time where we don't really have much happening from a central bank perspective. We have plenty of Fed speakers Including Jay Powell himself who's going to be giving opening remarks tomorrow around 9 15 New York time, but this doesn't seem like anything that's going to be overly newsworthy The big thing will come on Thursday when he speaks on a panel at the IMF and there's going to be a Question-and-answer period with a moderator and that's going to be I think a little bit more Significant and that's going to take place at 2 o'clock the other big events for the rest of this week We'll be the Treasury auctions tomorrow at 1 o'clock New York time We're going to get a 10-year auction and then on Thursday at 1 o'clock You're going to get a 30-year auction so you know these auctions are very important because rates have gone up a lot and We're going to want to see if these auctions continue to Show some signs of improvement or if they continue to worsen the last 10-year auction didn't go very well The 30-year auction didn't go very well So these are going to be important auctions to pay attention to the three-year auction today Looked like it did fairly well with a pretty decent direct acceptance and indirect acceptance rates And it did in price too far It price basically in line with the one-issue price So these auctions are important to just be aware of because if Bonnie you'll start moving You're going to see US markets start moving with them equity markets And so that will take us right to the NASDAQ which is our first, you know Major index and when we look at the NASDAQ there had clearly been a trend line here That's formed you had three touches four touches off the top Today it looks like we broke through it and you know the only Way we know if this is a meaningful event or not is by getting confirmation and by holding above that trend line It looks like there's a possibility and it's good chance that the it's gonna hold because it looks like we may have gapped above it came down and even tested it at one point today and Managed to hold on to it, but again one day doesn't make a trend So you're gonna want to see if this really holds the key here is that the close was pretty weak In fact, you can see we closed under all the intraday highs We even closed below the midday lows and this is sort of important because again this seems like a pretty negative close a pretty weak close and so you're gonna want to see tomorrow The NASDAQ really take out this 15,332 area because if it can do that it probably sets up an opportunity to test this region up here at 15,415 this is a fairly important region It's been a region that's been in focus now for some time really going all the way back to the summer months Because we can see that this was a level that was supporting resistance back here at the very beginning of the decline In July and August and then it acted that like that again In the end of August in the middle of September and so we're gonna want to see if that Continues to be a major level of resistance because if you can get through that it does set up Obviously higher prices and maybe even a retest of this broken big downtrend that's in place And clearly if we have more weakness to open tomorrow if we were to gap lower We could be looking at you know given the size of the advance We could be looking at a target of around 15,130 to 15,080 What's interesting is that most of this rally I think was predicated on you know a short gamma position that had been built up in the markets Basically due to the way options are hedged and the way option betting was taking place and that short gamma That created basically a squeeze on the market a short covering rally and that and now that that that we've moved back Into a positive gamma regime. We've seen markets stabilize and that's why they've been sort of stalling out now at these higher levels So with this market back in a positive gamma regime It likely means that market makers are going to be sellers of strength and buyers of weakness And that's what's helping to keep the market Somewhat contained and that's why you know if you get auctions that don't go well or go better than expected at one O'clock in the afternoon Tomorrow it could really act to catapult the market in really either direction when we move over to the Dow The towel is sort of the the index or the average that we've been talking about now for some time 34,200 right now has become a level of resistance. You can see it was support here support here Resistance resistance. There's really not much in terms of a clear pattern here in the Dow Curly we again didn't have the greatest close today Across most of the indexes you can see we at least we close below all the intraday highs on the Dow And we're unable to close above resistance at 34,000 once 180 or so And this is important because again if we can take these highs out early tomorrow It does set up a possibility for the Dow to have more room to run Potentially back up even to this 34,700 region And likewise if this were not to be If we were to see weakness tomorrow to start the day in this low of 33,000 933 were taken out We could be looking at our first gap fill here at 33 825 and then potentially, you know No real support again until about 33,560 or so which had been an important level It is worth noting and I guess pointing out that there may be one of these same scenarios We've seen in the Dow before which was similar to this rising flag pattern You can see it's rising and certainly this was a cup and handle with a rising panel handle in this pattern It's more of just a straight rising flag pattern Which appears to maybe be forming and this again would be more of a negative pattern Suggesting we undercut and move down to these lows But again, this is something we need to watch and really for confirmation of this You're going to want to take out this midday low of 33,993 from yesterday And then of course when we move over to the DAX the DAX is in a similar situation to that of the The NASDAQ with this trend line The DAX had this trend line going here and we had extended it lower For some time I had it more drawn like this and we kept gapping over it and then coming back below it And so now more recently we just gapped above it again and the question is do we move back below it or Do we really just have a new trend line here in place with these tops in in in mind? And so again the DAX today From at least Friday we rallied right into Friday and we've given back these gains the DAX again Is really more a downtrend and you're going to want to see the DAX Not only move above this high tomorrow But you're really going to want to see more of a decisive break above this downtrend Which is something we haven't we haven't had yet or experienced really since going back to the middle of September You can also see that this region here around 15,165 or so has been a fairly Difficult region for the DAX to meaningfully get through and there is a lower gap here at 14,950 this almost looks like an island reversal pattern given that we had this really clear break and then another clear break Again, but for this to hold you're going to need to see that the DAX continues to move up Takes out this high takes out this trend line and starts moving even beyond this 15,300 if we were to fill this gap that island reversal pattern would obviously be invalidated and then with the the footsie Footsie Again has been a really difficult index to track It seems to always find support around 7,300. It's been tested now on several occasions It seems like this area up around here around 7,700 has been a very strong level of resistance It had looked like maybe we were finally going to break down and then all of a sudden You know the footsie gets a second wind and it moves higher the question really becomes You know what is going to happen here? Because it seems to me like it's a little bit of a difficult situation to Assess and when we look at the footsie we can see that there's been some support here at 7,400 This is kind of like a stilt like feature where you just got a straight line advance on looks like straight air And this is sort of a in my experience as we've seen patterns like this You've seen them in the in the NASDAQ and the S&P as well These just aren't they just tend to not be stable patterns and and so You know when we look more closely here, it almost looks like there's also a downtrend Which is forming with a descending triangle, which if that is the case and we would know that by under cutting this low It's 74 7,400 it likely results in a decline back to 73 50 or so Likewise, if we were able to gap above this high This would make room for us to probably move back up to 74 65 or so But again, this is sort of a situation where it looks like it's going to resolve one way or the other In the next couple of days because you can see that when we just kind of scroll through We're getting to a point where the downtrend is either gonna We're running out of room, right? So either we're going to trade through the downtrend and the downtrend is going to be no more or we're going to break below the downtrend And we're going to break below support and move back to the lower end of the range And that's just how it looks set up to me at this point Again, I just don't like the fact that you have this sort of stilt looking advance with this sort of Set up here with this downtrend and and this Um support level, but that's uh again just kind of looking at it from a just a purely technical pattern recognition sort of vantage point So anyway, that's uh all I have today. I hope you have a great rest of your week. Bye