 The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of The Power Trading Hour. As always, we come to you at the appointed time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So we've got some shenanigans, some hootenannies going on in the market. Of course, China had been off all week for their national vacation. They're coming back this morning. And of course, when they come back, it's Columbus Day here in the United States. There are two days where the bond market is always closed. Why the equity market is open. That is the 10th of October and the 11th of November. Veterans Day and Columbus Day for the bond market. And you generally have about half the volume you have on a normal day. I suspect that a lot of what happened today is a little bit too well timed to maybe wash out the bottom of the market. We'll see whether we get a close above 3636 on the S&P cash. If we do do that, I think that's a fairly good sign. If we continue to have light volume, we could just chip away at the bottom. So today is kind of an important close, but not as probably important as the one tomorrow when we get back to full trading. Of course, when we look at things like the TLT, you go EEC, but then you have to know that the bond market itself is closed. So, you know, we did break through that previous low. I'm wondering if that lasts through tomorrow, but I don't think we have a lot of time to wait. About a day, maybe two. Of course, Wednesday this week is Delta neutral day for monthly options expiration. I tend to get a lot more out of the data then, but right now S&P, excuse me, the SPY, showing an expiration on the 21st somewhere around 380 on the spies. So, again, not tremendously bearish out there. Thursday we have earnings. Wednesday we have some Fed minutes at two. Other things going on that people probably haven't been looking at or thinking about with all the other stuff going on today is that the Supreme Court took up two cases from the Ninth Circuit that are going to touch on Section 230. That is the exemption for social media companies to not have to get sued for what other individuals put on their website. The Ninth Circuit has adopted that to be incredibly wide that they can't be sued for anything, which is not what the bill says. It says they can't be sued for things, other things that people put on their site. So my guess is this is the case. As I said, you've got two that are being consolidated. The other two from the Fifth Circuit and the Eleventh Circuit, my guess are going to be enjoined. I didn't think maybe this would come until after the first of the year. So that figure probably less than nine months. So that means that we could have a fairly good decision by May of next year, if not sooner, depending on how this goes. And well, you've got both sides of the Supreme Court from Kagan and the traditional right also saying that this needs a lot of clarification. So probably if you had to guess now probably a 7-2 decision when this does come out and that they're hearing it, probably a good indication that they are going to do something with it and most of them have already said they were going to, how they kind of felt about it. So social media companies I think would be much better off not trying to censor independent First Amendment speech and start getting on to some of the other stuff where they may make some money. Other notes of interest. I was talking to somebody earlier today, one of my subscribers and I wondered whether the giant Jamie Dimon, Pearl Harbor event at 10.30 this morning where he came on and said it was the end of the world and then of course you get into it a little bit farther and he goes it may be the end of the world. Well, if it may be the end of the world then it may not be the end of the world and of course probably a little bit self-serving. Right now a great deal of the very short term in the market is handled by computers that read headlines and that's all they do. So do they just go and run everybody out at the lows and I think there's a good opportunity to believe that. I like to say listening to the big men of Wall Street is kind of like using your wife's attorney boyfriend for your divorce. Probably not a fairly good idea to listen to them and generally I do just the opposite. Other things going on are Sitrep fanboy out there has been sending me some stuff and I did miss this but last week a ETF did file for a Kramer ETF to go opposite of what he does. You never know about that. Okay, not sure why everything keeps acting up but it does but what did I do here? I'll do it anyway. See what we have here. Okay, we'll do this and this and then we'll do this. Bring me the head of the false prophet Jim Kramer. Anyway, yeah, anyway we're talking about Kathy Wood maybe they were going trying to wash her out this morning and this we had Kramer out here too is always interesting but yeah, I'm not a big fan of his. I don't know how well a inverse Kramer ETF would do but he's generally extremely wrong at the wrong time. I think that's probably the best way to say his history and he ran two hedge funds into bankruptcy only to be saved by his then wife and became of course the dancing bear that he is today on CNBC. So what do we have? We've got Microsoft was down a lot stronger earlier in the day along with the SMHs so we'll see how the end of the day comes. You need to close somewhere about 185 or higher today so we'll see that you've got some decent volume in the SMHs. Again, I'm a little wary on a bond day where their bonds are closed of putting too much into them breaking today. It seemed a little bit, we'll be back in a minute. 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As we said, interesting rumors and rumors about rumors coming out today. Denberry had a huge run up to 104.05 today. It's about 98 or thereabouts. When we look at that, two different companies talking about buying them out and of course starting to see some of that bleed off here in the afternoon. But more rumors of acquisitions in the energy space. So we'll keep an eye out on that. 36, it was called 3615 on the S&P cash. As I said on the first section, the volume was fairly light. We should probably, if we're breaking out the lows today, doesn't mean we can't break them out tomorrow. But if this was a regular day, I'd like to be seeing about 8.5 billion shares, maybe 9 billion shares right at this time to get the kind of volume to blow out the lows. Doing a little less than 6.2 billion shares right now is not that big. Of course, some of the sectors probably more on statements in China about what's going on with the chip business and of course Friday's Biden comments on more tariffs on China's semiconductor business and China being a little less than eloquent on how they were going to throw the old proverbial monkey wrench in the gears. So you do have some decent volume and it does look like you're breaking through some previous lows. But as it blow out volume so far, no. And again, I'll probably put about half of a signal on any signal I get today with a bond market, half the weight anyway, that I would get if the bond market was traditionally open that I have now. Again, I'm starting to think I smell a little bit of something and maybe it's in Denmark if you get my Shakespeare references. Too soon? Only 500 years later? Too soon? Okay, so that's part of it. Oh, Microsoft has its big new dog in Pony. I've had somebody waiting for one of their new products and it looks like it's coming out. They came down today on some fairly high volume. Only about half of what we saw on Friday though so far. What's called 38 million shares on Friday, about 19 million so far. I don't know if anything in the new products will turn that around as much as anything else. Of course, we've got some big product rollouts over the next two weeks. It doesn't seem to be doing a whole lot for NVIDIA, although I think it's tomorrow and Wednesday. Their announced products will already start shipping. We've got some decent volume but you're not holding the lows so far today. Probably should have some decent volume. Same thing with AMD announced products starting to ship them and the question is whether or not or how well they're going to sell. They're going to sell out. In previous years, they would have sold out of their new products before they ever got there. It looks like they may have product for a day or two before the first round are sold out for both AMD and NVIDIA. Of course, you have to separate great products from a market that's a little bannock depressive and we're kind of depressed at the moment. Not much going on in AMD but very superior products. I'm looking at building some new PCs and I've got probably five people right now that are interested in building new PCs for trading and they've been talking to me but I think in the next couple of weeks probably going to be the best time to buy a computer that there will be in the next few years. These new products are probably going to keep the pressure for AMD and NVIDIA to get the old ones out the door at a fairly decent price if you want to buy. There's always a bull market somewhere and maybe it's just you buying a new PC in the coming weeks. I'm not going to do it in the next couple of days but my guess is once these new products really start hitting the shelves over the next couple of weeks we're probably going to see the lows and the price by the first of November. Then things will probably sort themselves out but it looks good. Kind of interesting to see that even with all the angst and depression and every time you see somebody that talks about the stock market they've got, what's that book? Boy, I'll think about it now. So when all the assassins carry I'm trying to remember now not a fiddler in the rye, catcher in the rye. Every time they catch some serial killer or assassin they've always got a copy of the catcher in the rye and of course all the conspiracy movies always have the CIA planting a copy of the catcher in the rye for those folks but you know what? You came into the lows for earnings. You had a nice bounce. You're down today on about half the volume. Not as bad as, I mean it could be a lot worse. Let's just say it that way. It could be a great deal worse. So we'll keep an eye on that. 877-927-6648. Okay, see what else we have here. Okay, got a couple more emails here. Yeah, SMH, I would wait till the close. I wouldn't make a lot of prognostications before we see that, like I said. So far a very light day and yeah, even with light volume if you hang at the lows long enough you'll eventually break through them. You really want to see these things take off over the next couple of days if we do have a low in. If we don't we just hang out around here just eventually one day we'll get up and it'll gap through to the bottom. So I'm not a big fan of buying these hoping that will bounce up in the morning. I'd rather see it bounce up in the morning and then buy it if you're thinking higher. As I said, options continue to be semi bullish up to 380 on the spies. We'll know a lot more on Wednesday when everybody goes delta neutral. But when we look in the spies the last low at 357 which we got into today had 154 million shares. We got well less than 49 million. So we're doing about 35% of the volume of that low. And a lot of times that's how you make nice lows. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. We come back here to the market. It's just one of those days. And again, there's two days when the bond market is closed why the equity market is up and they're almost always light-volume days. And it's Columbus Day as today is and Veteran's Day in November. So don't be surprised when this same thing happens. Yet again, next month. Okay, we got other emails out here. Okay. Somebody asked me on Netflix, I'm going sideways at the moment. I don't see a whole lot out here. I'm not bullish on any of these. If Amazon had a bigger percentage of their earnings come from streaming movies and all that, I'd be more bearish on them too. You actually have a fairly good low coming back in to the low on Amazon, that's September 23rd, 1206, 65 million shares. You got about 30 million as you got real close to that today. Anytime I see a stock on 50% lighter volume, I don't believe that it has to, if you're within half a percent as you are today, I don't believe it's got to come back and retest it. I'm not a mega-bull, but this kind of looks like it's just bouncing around from 112 to 1, probably 124, 125, where the double gap is. You've got to get through 116 to 118, but Christmas is coming and there's a pretty good correlation with it doing well into the end of the year. Okay. What else do we have here? Okay. We've got that. Anyway, I'm not, Amazon's lost a billion dollars on that Lord of the Rings remake. What can I use to, what can I say, and get away with it? All over the Star Wars franchise that they paid four and a half billion dollars for. You just, I don't know how the CEO just can't fire everybody involved with the Star Wars franchise and some of the other stuff that they're doing. It's just horrifically bad. I don't know how bad these are doing because we've got to tune out times being published rather regularly now in the trades for Hollywood. So we know that people aren't watching or turning out or tuning out soon and maybe they just tried to make too much stuff coming out of the pandemic and we're stretched too thin for people doing anything good. But there's four properties that they spent $300 million on and more that are just horrifically bad and getting very bad reviews. The only thing I could see on the horizon that does well for Disney is maybe the next season of Mandalorian in which they've kept those folks away from it, although they continue to circle it and try to torpedo it with very bad ideas. Maybe the shining star in what Disney does but I don't think the Mandalorian comes in to the first quarter of next year for streaming, of course. I don't think anything's going to change people going to Disneyland or Disney World and the theme park business. People want to take their kids even if it's expensive. So it's mostly on the whole streaming front as they move out of the theaters into streaming. But man everybody, let me put it this way everybody is doing rather poorly and I don't think there's anything else to say about it than that. 877-927-6648 and that's got hit. Okay. Go back here. Anybody have any stocks in the den they want to look at? Make sure and put your note in there to just kind of hanging around here on the S&P. Let's take a look at that. 3624, again the number 3636 is what you need for the close above today and that would give you a another test of the low and it's been a long time. It's been probably I'm going to say 2005 and 6 before we've seen or since we've seen the repeated breakdowns I think in March of 2009 we had one retest and that was it and the market took off as the Fed started putting a fire hose of cash to the market. I think we had one in like 2004 and 5 after 2001 the 9-11 event I think we only got one test back into October and then we started moving again. So it's been, you know, before that the history of the market has been beating out what they used to call beating out lows you still see it in stocks a great deal more than broad markets but at least so far today I believe that's what we have let's go back and check with the volumes real quick so a little less than 6.5 billion shares as I said you really want to see 18 billion shares to blow through the lows and we just have not been getting it at these lows okay yeah question whether or not Apple continues to be kind of the leverage that the market, the lever that everybody's putting on the market it was lower it's back up today you're getting a fairly nice test today on this with what 52 million shares going into 125 so yeah I think you've got some lows going into the into the end of the year and I think we've made our low my thought would be that if we're going to have a big downturn it will be after the first of the year okay first one is big C I'm unfamiliar with this one let's take a look big commerce not familiar with it too much you are testing a 2.5 million share low that's the May 12th low $12.71 didn't quite get there but I don't think you have to you could buy this and just put a very tight stop on it you don't want it closed below $12.71 but you've got one fourth of the volume that's generally a pretty good indication of a wash out in the bottom other things take a look at Chewy CH WY for the fourth element I do like the movie though the fifth element okay well it's still holding up and a very light volume 36 bucks let's see how much of a retracement this thing's done so you got a 382 on it yeah I think it's probably one of the better looking ones going forward people are always willing to spend money on their dogs but yeah no volume today I don't know if I'd buy it today or wait till tomorrow but if you open right in here and there's no volume I think you'd put a stop in at 3410 and that would look really good when we get back we've got four two go 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on a day where the market's fairly closed I wouldn't say one way or the other to read too much into it but a good close above 36 36 would be pretty good all the Wycoff style original Wycoff types always said take the volume the way that it's supposed to come or the way that it comes I'm not always that same way always think that maybe there's a little bit else going on but that's all you can say 877-927-6648 and see what else we have here we'll check in with the volume real quick but not any better six point you'd like to see volume start coming in as it comes back up we've just had a day where there was a lot of volume as they ran the stops didn't get much of course all perpetrated by a comment from Jamie Dimon on the end of the world at least for the market being down another 20% not a big fan of listening to the big men of Wall Street their job is not to find you find a big wad of cash and shove it in your pants that's not generally what they do they generally try to find the big wad of cash in your pants and take it out so not a big fan of listening to any of those goes let's take a look real quick at Den again earlier in the show are you going to close above the previous high this is for Jimmy 93-95 this is the August 23 high with 2 million shares you've broken through it you've got 3.6 million shares you've got all the volume and you're more than likely going to close over 94 bucks so it is a valid breakout I'm not sure about the rumor mill but from what I heard two different companies look like they're going after Denberry so it will probably hang up for at least three days whether those rumors are truthful or not question to look at the IBB from Ronald as we talked before I think we talked last Wednesday about how this came right up to confluence and it wasn't perfect confluence fairly good as I say these tend to be more like speed bumps the wider they get when they're very narrow they tend to be a wall the high on this was 122.80 got to 123.64 closed back in that confluence range and that is if you look at the Fibonacci from September 26 to September 9 and then the one from September 26 to the 134.89 high on August 11 you get the 618 of one and the 382 of the other and in this case you got about a dollar I like it when they're about half a percent but they tend to work up to about one percent and then they tend to be more of a congestion zone then something that you can put a stop on nickel on the other side of them but certainly a nice lay up on there as far as IBD going up to its confluence and now pulling back you don't have a lot of juice in this you basically got your 50 percent retracement almost to your 618 today 117.29 would have been the 618 and what did you get today for the low 117.32 so you got within a few cents of that that would have been if you were feeling pretty froggy this morning which I think would have been tough even for me I was willing to wait until the end of the day to see how everything turns out and still am this is not this is a fairly light volume day and they can still push it around it will mean a great deal more to me tomorrow than it does today but that's that's that question on GLD was looking fairly good the question is whether or not we were looking at this as just everybody that parked money in China for the week that they were off coming in and selling it and trying to go back into some other stuff with your gap down of course not much different with the bonds being closed too could you have a little bit of shenanigans going on in this but that does get you 154.87 was the 618 on that one you got to 155.12 not a lot of volume for GLD but of course not a lot of volume for the market in general let's go back and quickly look at spy volume that we were talking about so 154 154 million shares to 51.5 so far so yeah maybe you get volume tomorrow you're not going to get it today on most of those question from Sam to look at work day we'll do that quick ok that is a nice test look at that 146.54 on September 27 with 3.2 million shares with 600,000 shares today so yeah if we if today is some kind of low we start moving up tomorrow we're going to have a lot of very light volume tests and again I'm not as big a fan as some in the price and volume to say take the volume no matter the way it comes I tend to weight things like Fridays into a three day weekend about half as much as I would into a normal weekend same with this but man you can't say that we had volume at the lows at least today now maybe tomorrow but I can't I can't say it's time to short the farm ok ok take a look at Microsoft MSFT did we look at that when you broke a you're in support you went back to the September second 2020 high that was 228.83 got to 226.73 today volumes about half of what it was a little more than half what it was on Friday you had 38 million chairs on Friday today you've got 20 and 20 and a half a little more so yeah it's going to be a light volume stay we'll be back in a minute you 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And then we get into Friday morning where we see the banks with JP Morgan, UNH, Citibank, Morgan Stanley and PNC. So a lot of banks on Friday will get a taste of that. Microsoft's got a launch of new products on Wednesday. As we said, Delta Neutral on Wednesday too, along with Fed with an announcement I think they're beige books out at two o'clock on Wednesday. So we've got a lot of stuff this week and probably a lot of chop to get through. I'm not going to weigh too heavy and bet the farm quite yet, but I think we've got the makings of a very good bottom in the short to mid term. And when I'm saying that, I'm saying that maybe through the end of the year. You never know what the market is collectively thinking. Yeah, do I see that we could have a real tough next year? Yeah, but maybe we've had a little bit too much now. Maybe the Fed decides that they've been letting air out of the balloon just a little too fast. They're going to maybe moderate it just enough to maybe get back up. As I said, probably the best, most bullish scenario is seeing some printer around $4,100 on the S&P cash before the end of the year. And that still would not negate a long term bearish market. But right now I'm not particularly bearish. So when you can, not when you have to, we'll see you tomorrow. Same bat channel, same bat. Any wealth trading in the stock market seems impu-