 Let's get over to our man. Mr. Tim ward folks as we do every Tuesday and Thursday and don't forget folks You can reach Tim every trading day at odd hyphen Oracle comm that's old hyphen oracle dot-com Tim or what's going on brother? Well, we it's interesting today's down a little bit on both markets market seems You know the gold market and the equity market seem to kind of following each other One's down the other's down both of them are up both of them are up strong. I know from 1st of October, right? I thought that might happen. So I guess it's the SB's are strong here in the gold market may follow it Yeah, that's what you know, and Tim it's you know, I put a chart up a little bit earlier You know the dollar so the dollar it seems to be ruling all the markets that what happened is that the dollar since July 14th Yesterday was the first time there was ever down in five days in a row from July 14th It'd only been down two days in a row kept coming back, but check this out what it did man It came back with a vet. It was down five days in a row Then came back with a vengeance and actually went backs inside the channel line So that's well. Yeah, I know exactly So yeah, it's up 800 ticks, which is almost a penny. You know, which is pretty intense Well, they got some stuff on the S&P that kind of follow the markets down Like the equity markets down five days in a row A 3% of time the market will be down lower within five days and actually it's it works the same way to the upside So what I'm saying is a lot of time momentum kind of rules. Yeah, it's kind of hard to get down five days in a row That's correct. I'm thinking that that I'm thinking you know, if it works the same way as the equity market You may still see another lower lower coming in the next several days. It's a possibility Yeah, I don't follow the dollar that no, but that's good to know. I'll keep my eye on that man I Appreciate that. No, I know they because it's like what's interesting right now with the S&P is That you know, we were down 52. We're only down 29 But it's like that fought word 4380 and that 4387 looks like it wants to get up there So that'll really be intriguing if it does Because then the S&P will actually you know at the end of the day only be done like, you know What 20 points versus 52 point that's a whole different game, you know, you know It's running into it's running into that September 21st gap. Yes. Yes And right at that gap here the other day on lighter volume Actually yesterday was up back here's another interest 60 The mark was up four days in a row going into yesterday four days in a row predict the mark will be higher 73% of the time That's as he goes back about five years. Okay, so the odds are still That mark will be higher within five days where it is right now and the more times you test the gap Yeah The more times you're gonna lightly eat through it So and we tested that gap again today We had to hire a little bit higher higher than we had a couple of days ago. Yes, and so To me, this is just a sideways consolidation. It's not backing away from that gap I'm doing this building some energy to put a bus through it. No, no listen, man I get you and with Tim saying here folks, this is what's so cool this whole testing procedure and Whether it's you know testing highs testing lows testing swings testing gaps It's really cool because each test Releases information that you want to pay attention to you know, and it's pretty wild Tim that you know This is where the patient still comes in again, right? But the reality is is that when you do test, you know two three times Each time it releases more information, which is pretty cool, man Do you know what I mean? It's like, okay, you know you either have the volume behind the move It can break it each time it gets lighter and lighter But it can spook everyone because they can get the fast-priced destruction simultaneously, you know Yeah, yep, I agree with you. I think we're gonna eat through actually it's a Let's take a chart. This is kind of getting the horse before Sure. Okay, which one let's take a look at chart six six. Okay. Let me see. Do we one two three four Bingo, I got it. Okay. Cool. Yep. All right We kind of looked at this on Tuesday when we were talking about it and and actually In a nutshell you need a sign a week or you need like a selling climax And you got to have it right after selling climax right after that You got to have a buying climax and that's how bombs are made if you got selling climax No buying climax you're gonna have another selling climax until it finally you do get a buying climax And that's what marks bottoms and that Marty's wag figured this out years ago Yeah, and and so this bottom window is the Marty's wag Breasts for us indicator. I put it into a Form tried to describe Brigette or I put what he Defined as a Or the swag indicator I put in and a graphic form here We kind of had a little bit different, but this works pretty close. Yes, but in a shell You need a reading blow point for Then within ten days you need reading above point six on that bottom indicator and that bottom indicator is advancing issues divided by total issues in a ticket ten-day average of it and so We did had 40 last Thursday anyhow And it started to go up from last Thursday and you hit like 55 and now we're back down to 49 I hear the music and so I can hang on stay right there folks Tim and I coming right back up phone numbers eight seven seven nine two Seven six six four eight. We have the Dow down one ninety nine Nasik off ninety nine S&P's off 33. We're coming right back folks Welcome back folks a Dow down just to straighten that down 190 S&P's are up 92 S&P's are up 92 man. Oh man Nasik's off 92 S&P's are up 32 We're talking about 10 men Mr. Tim Ode and we are talking markets right now. So we're on the Jwag right. Yes. Yeah, there's lag breath-thrust indicator. So anyhow This triggered last Thursday Has to be within 10 days or less and so that puts us next Thursday We would be October 19th that this lag breath indicator has to trigger for it to Actually for it to trigger and if it does trigger it implies the market is in a bold move or has made a immediate term bottom, you know over the That sideways pattern we had from October or from April 2022 to April of 2023 we had three The lag breath-thrust indicator Trigger in that in that year time frame. Well now we got the potential Yeah, that was that was extremely bullish sign, you know, you get one or two is good to get three You know, I assume it's a lot better. So that's pretty wild. Yeah All right, go ahead. I'm sorry. No, it's just pretty wild man I thought you know, I like the idea if it triggers a lot doesn't trigger I mean that's what's kind of cool about it, you know what I'm saying is that in both ways You're getting information about the market, you know, yeah Yeah, well if you go back and you know, you can see it there on the chart back in 2020, you know coming off of that COVID crash, I guess you want to call it, you know, we had a couple on that uptrend You know, even on the the corrections that we had in in October of 2020, you know, you got this is a wag stroke Threat stress all over the place in there And so we kind of have the same thing here. We have a potential one to trigger, you know next week's option expiration week Yeah, and uh, I'm thinking I got statistics on that or october of what percentage is up and I'll have in front of me By that october week is up for this to trigger the market has to rally In that 10 day time frame. Yes So if we stall here and really go nowhere for the next three four or five days That may ruin the chances of this lag threat indicator getting to plus or getting to point six Yes, because it measures the kind of advanced decline type statistics so for that to have a In other words, the market has to really be up to show more advancing issues compared to a total issues to trigger this indicator So it's important indicator that it would trigger For it to trigger over the next several days of a dozen Uh, then you're right and that gives a lot of information then we may need more work going sideways or even down Right. I'm pretty Confident that it's probably going to trigger. Let's see. You know, I don't have a crystal ball No, no, no, the the the cool thing is it's going to release information, right? Yeah, that's what it's going to do. So we'll see how that pans out because we'll be talking next Thursday We'll be able to see where we are. Yes. Uh, so We can skip to another chart. Let's go back to chart five. Okay and I kind of showed this chart before but This is the equity book call ratio readings and readings on the the 21 day So it measures how many people are actually buying puts compared to calls. Yeah, so whenever everybody's on the put side, you know And this is actual these are people not Thinking about buying puts these are people actually bought puts where it's um um, so it's a It's a similar indicator, but it gives you it gives you where actually money has gone to And so the public in general are feeling pretty Very sure because the bottom one is the 21 day average. That's like a month. Yes trading And it gets above 0.75 around a 0.82 right now. So that's kind of a A bigger longer term Trend because you're out a month So that kind of looks at the bigger picture So the public's kind of been buried Uh release a book called or the option players kind of been buried over the last 30 days And the five day, uh, it's just right below the bullish level which is 0.8 Uh, but both of them hit point You know, but bullish levels here at the last low we had here just a week ago first part of uh, october so Feminite wise You know that's a good you want yes, but call ratio readings Where the puts are outnumbering the calls and that's a good sign Because people are lending bearish here And to really feed a feeder rally Uh, you need to kind of the shorts to be covered type things really initiate off the bottom And we kind of have that here. That's the reason why I think there's like thrust indicator Maybe uh, you know lit up. I guess you might say because People are still still kind of bearish enough believing the rally and that's really what you want to see No, no, I can see that and for a full month. I mean, that's pretty cool because if you actually take a look at, you know Uh, you know, as tim says folks is an average of 21 trading days in a month And we actually take a look at this now check this out. This is where it gets as it gets really interesting Where where we are right now on the on the spy at 433 well 5 10 Oh my god 15 17 where it's 17 days you go back 17 days and we're at the same price So yeah that gets interesting. So, you know and and what happens on a put call ratio Those puts folks a decay in every single day. So, you know This is this is this is intriguing man. There's no doubt. Yeah Yeah, well this chart goes back to I think uh, what about 2000 2000 yeah 2000 mid 4 to 14 And you can see at all the major lows, you know, we put out any low back there Of all the lows we had going back to mid 2014 This indicator pop where it's supposed to pop. Yes, it came into bullish territory. So and it's doing it right now Just on a you know, fairly minor Pullback, you know, I think we kind of jumped above a trading range and now it came back and tested it And all of a sudden the put call ratio surges. So right It's so yeah, the whole the whole thing leans bullish so far. So yeah, because you know, it's uh, it's so intriguing Tim and in folks who have you know, if you're In front of a computer the bottom line is that, you know We came down fast and furious and we were down like 52 s and p points in about a heartbeat now that being said It has already taken back 25 of those points pretty quick So that's where it really gets interesting. It's like, okay, really, you know, so we'll see where it shakes out, but That's if you look on today's s and p's, uh, we're at about 64 million shares Uh, this is on the spys and the previous high we had two days ago at 78 million shares, you know, we got Uh, normally all the volume really comes in on the close I bet today's test of the two days ago today, sir To be too these high because we did touch too these high if you do If you do it on the spy Yes, and if you test the previous high on equal or greater volume Usually you go through that high and I bet today's volume will be around At least 78 million shares within two three percent of that. That's all it needs Because it's a it's at 67 right now Yeah, it definitely would and they'll put 20 million into this in a heartbeat What it's only 330 Yeah, it's 338. Yeah, yeah, particularly because what does happen folks Um stare at that tim and I are going to be coming right back and what I was going to say what does happen folks if you get any kind of You know even a small rally we're at 43 83 right now and that number I gave you is a 43 87 it wants to go to that number So if the market participants start seeing it, okay Oh, and now we're only down 21 s and p points Guess what that changes a the perception of a down market stay right there folks to come right back Welcome back folks tim or tom o'brien. We do appreciate your growling and prowling with us out here We have the now industrials up 146 nazik down 146 charlotte Um nazics off 77 s and p's are down 26 and we are looking right now at uh, let's see. I'm looking at the The put call ratio charred tim All right. Okay. We're kind of done with that. So now it's basically bullish Um, that's actually looked at a long-term chart Of the bold market Which is chart number three. Okay I thought you find this real interesting And it's kind of a weird ratio, but it's now it's a monthly The middle window there of that chart. You know the chart goes back, uh, like I said 80 19 Yeah, 1984 sort of 84. Yeah, you know goes yeah a long time ago And so anyhow the middle chart is the monthly xAU gold ratio Yes, that's all this as far as you could go back with that chart And what seems to work? Uh, the best is the bottom window, which is a slow stochastic of that ratio And uh, every time it got down below minus 10 the slow stochastic minus 10 Which is all those blue lines across the chart Uh, the market was at a near low. It picked out the 2000 low, uh, it picked out the 2016 low picked out the 2000 19 or Can't quite see it. Yeah, it looks about 2019 low and And back in uh, to august of 2022 another about a year ago It picked out a major low So it measures the momentum of that Um xAU gold ratio on a monthly time frame. So yeah, the last trigger was august of 2022 I got noted on the chart there So normally what it does when it gets down below minus 10 It normally goes right back up to plus 80 Which which are all the red lines across the chart. Okay, uh, there's not there's not a lot of them the last time we you know, it it went from 2019 low and then 2020 looked like it hit, you know hit the top pretty good And that went back to august 2022 low And you know, things would get dicey if this bottom indicator got back above plus Plus 80, but right now it's it's basically on a bicycle On a monthly yeah, look at that thing man. Wow. So So it's it's it's proven. It's it's worth over time. So it's and we know that gold is so cyclical It's amazing. I mean so it totally makes sense too. You know what I mean? It's it's not like buying an apple You know what I mean? It gets a commodity. Yeah, so you're gonna see right go up and down right cool Yeah, so so actually, you know if you look at 2000 bottom It gave a a bicycle at you know the 2000 time frame early 2000 Then it went up and those red lines right after it You know when the that ratio goes up too fast and that Close to catholic gets up too fast too quick. You know up a plus 80 It picked out all those tops going going higher over the next several years Right, that was pretty cool. No it is and if you were around at that time folks, okay, what had happened Which was pretty wild is that once gold came we were doing we're not doing this stuff, but we're doing we were Yeah, we were that was I discovered it back then I you know over the years I kind of researched and figured out what what works most of the time. Yeah, and but Yeah, there's trouble. It's never really got you out at that top of 2011 You had to Do a bolinger band thing and and follow that Well, you know what you know what tim the way I got out at that top, right? It was it was a one to two abc up man And it was remember I think you taught me this if you go more than a one to 1.618 down or up Yeah, you changed the trend is like really quick and it was a one to two and I said that's it man. I'm done And I was done. I sold out totally man. Do you know what I mean? It's like, okay, man and The high came in like I don't know two weeks after that, you know, it kept going higher but two weeks after that was done It's like, okay. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, but if you look at that monthly bolinger band You know, it it kept you out of that market, you know all the way back down to that 16 low. Oh, yeah, listen man after you showed us that a couple weeks ago. I love that one man That's that's so simple. It's insane Yeah, it's this is pretty uh You know, that's what I'm saying. You know a lot of times I say I'm a marker letter You know momentum rules all the indicators. It does. It really does. It does. You know, so Um, you know, right now we've kind of been chopped sideways Um on the bigger timeframes here the bolinger bands are probably going to start squeezing here in the next couple of months But momentum wise As far as this ratios goes, you know, we were we reached, you know rock bottom here so, um So on a bigger time frame, I guess you're a lot closer to a low than a high So if you get up around plus 80, then you're a lot closer to high than a low Yes Lots of ways to see how that develops in the coming weeks. Yes or a coming month, I guess, but Uh, on a shorter time frame we can Let me see here what we we can do. Uh Actually, uh go to chart one. Okay There we go and all right Chart one anyhow, this is for some reason it works really well, but the the second window down from the top Is a bullish percent index for the gold miners index flash gdx and this is on a weekly time frame and uh, it goes back far as I could take it which is uh, you know 2008 looks like and Then I put an rsi to it So if it goes down too quick the rsi goes too low If it goes up too quick, uh, then that's also a signal because it could mean a short term top And it does pretty well picking out actually minor highs or actually decent highs and decent lows But I gave a signal, uh, I put the signal date on there of august 28th 2023 And a lot of times when it does get a signal, I circled in in red Yes, I see that times that yeah a lot of times sometimes it goes sideways, you know a couple of them did some You know some actually marked a decent low right off the bat Yeah, but a lot of times either goes sideways or down modestly In the last three we had it went sideways to down a little bit according to the current one and so but uh over time it's been really accurate, uh, so In other words, when everybody kind of dumps on the market As far as the gdx markets usually those are huge huge opportunities and when everybody gets extremely Um bullish in the market Uh, then that's also extremely bearish because most if this thing goes up too fast too quick Then the rsi will get up to around, you know, plus 70 and that's also Fine for a signal that's gone up too fast and market we need to uh to uh be careful here, but So it generated august 28th a signal and I think we talked a little bit this is usually You know the market will drip lower for several weeks before that upturn begins I'm taking that's exactly what's happening here. I think it's turning up here at first part of august I think it's uh because the rsi is Wide ways above, you know 30 now Uh, so momentum is kind of turning up right here. So I think it's the start of a little something bigger That may last I think probably you know previous signals this type have lasted several months So I'm thinking we probably could rally into year in Um, we'll put those rally caps on tim We're gonna have those rally caps on tim lords rally Yeah Listen man, you have a great weekend a safe weekend and we look forward to speaking the next week tim All right. Thank you. Okay. All right. Don't forget folks You can reach tim every trading day at odd or d hyphen oracle.com is odd hyphen oracle.com Stay right there folks. Come right back