 Okay, very good morning. It's Anthony Chung here from Amplified Trading. It's Tuesday the 14th of July. Really two things for me to talk to you about in the briefing this morning. Firstly, the late cellophane Wall Street that came after the Government of California issued then a warning about closing indoor operations statewide, that including bars, restaurants, dining, that kind of thing. And then secondly, renewed tension between the US and China, this time about rhetoric over the South China Sea. So they're the two main focal points that caused a late cellophane Wall Street. We're also going to have a look at a couple of other things in the UK in regards to Huawei, in regards to Chinese data. We've had UK GDP as well come out. So quite a few things for me to get through. Let's start off then with the charts and talk about what exactly is the sentiment for the European Open. And if anything, we've had a little of a pickup from the somewhat oversold move that we had last night given it wasn't very aggressive. So first things first, let me just bring up a chart that's going to make it way more easier for you to comprehend exactly what was going out. And I guess fortunately from a timing's perspective, Will and I were actually delivering a session for Credit Suisse in the US. So we were in fact still on our computers pretty late last night. And so we managed to capture quite a big portion of this move. And this is an annotated chart which probably makes it a little bit easier to see how it unfolded. Essentially just before 8pm UK time, we had the US denounce China claims in the South China Sea. And I'll talk about a little bit about the reasons why that's quite significant. The S&P started to come off and at the time symbolically it's more important for the NASDAQ than it is for the S&P. But we were touching on around fresh all-time highs. We were up around 11,000 in NASDAQ. And if we're looking about where we are in the S&P here, we've kind of reversed course from a large portion of that move. We literally touched pretty much to the tick here that high that we were printing back in the early part of June. And you can see here again another annotated chart that I was using discussing to a few new traders yesterday about the kind of ebb and flow and the fundamental catalyst that have happened in this narrative that we've had in this seesaw performance of the S&P so far. But yeah, technically we got to a really interesting point, as I said, similar setups that were seen in other US indices as well. All came then on a breakdown with some fundamental catalysts which is often the case then where we've hit this kind of maximum point of resistance on a longer term trend. So after the denouncement of China claims in the South China Sea, this was really the main headline that saw the selling intensity really pick up. And that was California orders indoor activities to close. So let me just show you exactly how that came out. That was basically the governor, Gavin Newsom came out and it was a tweet actually that caused the markets to react rather than a headline coming out in Bloomberg or Reuters. And this was the tweet. California is now closing indoor operations statewide, restaurants, wineries, movie theaters, family entertainment, zoos, museums, card rooms, bars must all close all operations. Also mandatory now to wear face masks in public spaces. And the reason why this is so significant is exactly what we've been saying for the last week or two. Really there's a lot of information to focus on when it comes to monitoring COVID in the US. But really predominantly it comes down to three main areas. That being California, Texas and Florida, given the fact that they represent nearly a third of the entire population in the United States of America. And California in particular, very important of course for the economic prosperity and the performance in shape of the recovery in the United States. And the fact now that they're taking quite a significant step in order to reverse let's say the reopening process, then that's going to have some implications then for the shape and speed of that recovery. And as such the markets had to reprice. And then just going back to the chart here, the other news that came out only a few minutes after that initial tweet from Gavin Newsom was that Apple doesn't expect a full US office return this year. I mean it just happened to come at the same time. The California headline itself was definitely the market mover. But remember how sensitive the markets were when that initial commentary when Apple also delayed the reopening of some stores. After reopening some they decided to re-close others. They were acting as a bit of a almost litmus test for the ability to reopen on a much grander scale even though the actual number of shops was relatively small. It was more of a sentiment play for physical shops on the high street. And the fact that they've come out and also said they do not expect a full US office return this year was quite telling. So yeah the market came down quite heavy. You can see here technically we broke through some key areas that at the time exacerbated some of the selling. It's hard to see it here on a 30 minute candlestick. The market did see some reaction around that 81 to a quarter level which was that high that we printed at the close of the end of trade of last week. The reopening double bottom that we had in both the Asia-Pacific session and yesterday European morning and that was that previous high as well. You can see back on the far left that we had on the 7th of July. Broke through that quite rapidly. You can then see the market responded. You can see a slight wick there on that next following candle. That was around those resistance levels that we had in the second half of last week. It broke, came back to that level and then pushed down. And we're just keeping an eye on a trend line here forming from what was what Friday's mornings price activity in the futures market in terms of European trade has been touched now a couple of times and worth keeping an eye on going forward here in the S&P on about four or five tests now that it's had. This morning though, a little bit of a pop higher. This isn't really too unusual. It was such an aggressive and quick sell-off that we had last night for people to just be closing out some of those shorts I think is fair. There's probably going to be a few people as well looking to in the very short term just pick up some prices relatively low comparative to where we were in the last 24 hours just to ride the move back up because how sustainable is this move? I'm not so sure. I think it was just a byproduct of when you were actually looking at the order flow going through the market last night. It really was getting hit quite aggressively at the time of day as well. So a little bit of a bump back up as per those key levels on the downside be looking at those key levels on the upside and a fairly significant obstacle here technically being those previous highs and that pivot level sitting just above around 70 and 72 and any push above there back up to 81 would be a key area to keep an eye on. In the NASDAQ, as I said the NASDAQ was an interesting one to watch as well yesterday if we look on a daily let me just move make this chart a little bit bigger so a few things here one I've just been keeping an eye on a couple of tests on these two trend lines of price activity we've just had this phenomenal rally in the NASDAQ outperformance of tech in particular we were talking yesterday to a couple of guys I think Amazon's added over 200 billion in market cap in the last literally 14 days which actually is bigger than the market capitalization of 95% of the S&P 500 as an entire index so it's a phenomenal how it's all getting squeezed into some of these big tech firms the top five continue to dominate in regards to the S&P weightings and interestingly we broke above that trend line but also that symbolic 11,000 in NASDAQ as we did we had a massive rejection off around those levels and we've come all the way back down again the blue line here is the 21DMA a couple of people have been looking at that as a level of relative significance that has held up the price on a couple of different occasions a little bit messy through June and early and late June but otherwise it is a decent line to have I think on your charts just to mark up any further pull back here just looking at that 10,500 level and just kind of monitoring the market all the way back down but I don't think we're going to get back down there today I think if anything around this area here might offer the opportunities for those still have a more bullish disposition to just get long again on the eventual play and push back up to the upside it's one of those where it's interesting the Fed the balance sheet has been tightening if anything of late as normal conditions have somewhat been restored the market seems to be satisfied and I just feel that if we do see a meaningful correction perhaps that's a healthy thing to happen given the growing disconnect between kind of market prices and the fundamental underlying reality economically and so a little bit coming off might be what's needed just to recalibrate this massive outperformance that we had more recently and nothing more telling and being somewhat of a trigger point than Tesla shares Tesla was just unreal yesterday it started it shot out the gate and some really aggressive buying I think on the initial open when I was monitoring it it was up 11-12% looking at this is the relative market caps overlaid against some of the other I guess mega caps that represent different sectors like Bank of America, Intel Netflix, Walmart and you can see the acceleration we've had here it's just phenomenal but Tesla shares really quite technical and the way that it shares were trading yesterday there was also jibes on Twitter for example that this is the new kind of Bitcoin I'm not here to criticize the company in that way but in terms of the share price movement it does need to be treated in a fairly similar fashion because any underlying intrinsic value of this company has kind of gone out the window at these types of levels when you're seeing price activity that's seen a percentage swing of roughly about 17% in the last 24 hours so if we were looking here at this price movement this is one of the things that you need to be very mindful of with a stock that's moving in this fashion in fact and that says as the market came back down look how the market responded to some of these these previous technical points of interest so pretty much to the tick when we got back down to 15, 30, 35 you can see that pull back here when the selling took place came all the way back down to a technical relevant point you can see there slightly to the right hand side we came back down, had a retest then the eventual break where do we target back to the psychological handle which was also the resistance point that we were trading back just at the end of last week on Friday so here if we were applying the same principle then any break to the downside if that was to materialize you'd be looking at 1450 and then down to here which was an area of significant resistance which was going back then to again this 14, 18, 17 level that's the way I'd be reading this type of price activity if you were very short term individual stock trading on this premise on the flip side any pull back higher then 1550 is a key area of resistance then you push back up then 1600 and that previous high that we had on the bounce at 1622 yesterday again 1700 nothing other than psychological there on the market dip through the through the handle comes back up retest it before the push lower so again very much trading herd behavior here the price pattern to me is very behavioral rather than anything intrinsically fundamental so you do have to readjust when you're looking at this type of price activity but again as far as the overall broader index is concerned I don't feel particularly spooked by the move that happened yesterday it just looked when it was occurring last night quite heavy but I would expect the market to find a bit of a flaw here and around 10,500 level if we did come down lower that would be a key market to keep an eye on the other asset as well that was moving it a little bit is oil as I mentioned tensions brewing again US China trade war and that does then disrupt the overall kind of view that the market has about the the return of demand for energy products given a tip for tax trade war when it's escalated is typically being negative for global growth and so again just on the longer time frame daily charts here oil still getting rejected at that key level situation hasn't really changed price still remains relatively squeezed in at around the 3950 4041 is the upside kind of level that's been restricting so the price action of late so that meeting of the JMMC not happening until tomorrow so definitely it's lining up for potentially quite interesting week for oil to make a decision about where it's heading in the short term at least so otherwise this morning the dollars a little bit firmer I think if anything that's a natural bounce then from some of the selling that was happening last night when or the dollars a bit firm excuse me just to reiterate as it was strengthening when some of that equity selling was happening so again despite the kind of logical assessment that you would normally think that equity selling off heavy as they were last night would be a bad US narrative and the dollar would weaken actually it still is at the moment preserving this somewhat flight to quality status and the dollar was actually strengthening at that point and that has just weighed on the major pairs some UK data has come out this morning significant in terms of what it is UK GDP estimate year on year for May was minus 24% that was weaker than expected minus 20.4 the GDP estimate month on month 1.8% blurred expected 5.5 so that in itself yes I mean we're talking about GDP on a year on year basis down 24% but the fact is markets already are fully prepared for this so if you look at cable the market is unreactive to that data this is more just reflective of the dollar movement that was seen late in the session as the sell-off took hold on the shutting down of California and its portents to the economic picture in the US quick look then at some charts let's have a catch up on some other points this is the COVID situation so you can see Florida now has overtaken Arizona Texas and California still somewhat on the increase on a statewide picture on a global picture Japan still on the precipice of renewing some more stringent lockdown measures Australia is almost caught up now in terms of the number of confirmed cases the UK just given the outbreak that was seen in Melbourne last week and they continue to try to get that under control and then in Hong Kong I think they're about to implement some of their most onerous measures and then the UK I think face masks in terms of hitting the high street going shopping are going to be mandatory as well on as of July 24th I believe so there's quite a few things in flux at the moment but again definitely trigger point was the California headline last night the other thing then a little bit more detail on this headline pertaining to the South China Sea so relations between the US and China basically have deteriorated once again this comes with Washington rejecting Beijing's claims in the South China Sea so essentially this has always been a hotly contested area about the sovereignty of this particular geographic location in the South China Sea China are always staking claim to it the US typically though would normally not get involved not pick a side just be fairly passive although the US have a military presence there in order to kind of keep the peace so to speak they politically do not normally say anything definitive this time though very different the move came and the US came out and basically rejected the notion of China's claim to that particular area on those territorial disputed seas so that in itself is a bit of an escalation the market did kind of that was right when we were up at the equity peak and it was almost like the first trigger the California one certainly was that that pushed it over the cliff so to speak in the late trading but this head I mean quite frankly I don't think this is too big a deal yes it's it's a bit of movement from the regular more passive stance that the US would have on this particular issue I don't think it's a massive thing that's going to escalate and get out of control I just think it's a slight evolution of the trade war rhetoric which we've had of late I don't really see too much in the way of any bites behind the back of this type of commentary coming out the US if I'm being honest the other thing that's happening with China is today Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to give an update about banning Huawei from Britain's 5G network which again is only going to kind of further stir the hornest nest in regards to relations with China so very much China's having a bit of a difficult time getting anyone on the side at the moment but such is the political narrative in both America and the UK to try and almost frame China as a responsible person in terms of certainly from Trump's vision for what's happening now globally with the pandemic and subsequently the economic reaction to that so again this if anything would be a positive for relations between the US and the UK which certainly the UK needs to be mindful of brokering some kind of trade deal with America given the looming deadline that is that of fully exiting the European Union at the end of the year so perhaps there is kind of a subtle undertone there that's going to bring those two nations closer together in united against then the Beijing and China at this point on China's side though they did have some economic data overnight and China posted a surprise June trade gain as economies tried to reopen just having a look here exports in dollar terms rose 0.5% imports were up 2.7% against last month so you can see here on the chart on the black line you've had a little bump here back into positive territory although the cumulative numbers will take a little bit of time to kind of pick back up again importantly then you can see the exports which is pivotal for the health of the recovery in China then to pick up given the kind of composition of how their economic output is constructed the main thing though is and the reason why I don't think we should get too excited about this types of figures that come out of China is that China heavily is dependent on exports and that then by de facto is reliant on the performance of other nations externally globally like in mainland Europe excuse me in the UK or in America all reopening their economies and what we've seen just yesterday then is the absolute opposite of that the reversal of reopening happening in America which is only going to impede the pace of recovery in China given its dependency on external sources to import their goods so I don't think the market really gets too excited by this it's still well down for the first six months of 2020 but nonetheless thought I'd posted out given a surprise June trade gains that was seen in China overnight oil I just mentioned we're going into that quite key meeting again it's two fold really the themes playing out in the oil market one is what are they going to do about this end of July looming decision about whether or not they follow course to start tapering down the severity of their supply cuts looking most likely that they will but episodes like a further escalation in trade war and a further reversing or rewind of the reopening of such an important economy as the US could see them start to make perhaps a slightly more difficult decision but that in combination then with these US China tensions has bumped oil a little bit lower this morning but nowhere near sharp sell-off just again more of a rejection of upside prices and anything else having a look at the calendar for today as I said we've already had that UK data come out as we look further forward into the European morning you've got the Germans looking to remain fairly static as analysts and economists will be putting out their latest view on current conditions and forward looking expectations you've then got US CPI numbers for June coming out in the year 130's you've got the weekly oil inventories coming up the API later on this evening OPEC released their monthly all market report as well that's going to be coming out normally I think it's around midday London but I'll keep you posted over the chat room when that happens and then speaker wise from the Fed there are two that could be quite interesting one a voter, Brainard speaking at 7pm London so one in Chicago and Bullard a non-voter there's going to be a monetary policy 7.30 London, 1.30 Chicago time fixed income supply got some coming out of the UK as well as around 8.5 to 10 billion so significant amount of BTP supply coming out of Italy as well today and then earnings to finish up on we really we kicked things off yesterday if you remember we had PepsiCo that had slightly better than expected figures for the second quarter ending in June that consumers obviously locked in at home were snacking more than ever but one thing that we were looking at yesterday and it's the big banks that we're looking out for the S&P 500 companies are expected to unveil an overall close to 45% plunging quarterly profits and as I was discussing yesterday this is going to be one of the worst then corporate profit pictures that we're likely to see since the onset of the global financial crisis back into 2008 however that is largely as expected around as a statistic that I saw this morning around 150 companies within the S&P 500 alone have already withdrawn their formal guidance on profits because of the uncertain nature around the pandemic but it is this forward-looking commentary which as I said yesterday which is going to be more important than ever to monitor with these numbers not so much what just happened in the prior three months. Bank stocks of course will be the focal point you've got some of the bigger banks coming out today whilst Fargo, JPMorgan and City there's normally the three that kick things off JPMorgan for example has forecast a 50% year over year rise in its markets revenues led by fixed income division so those FICC numbers will be particularly important to watch given some of the market volatility the trading divisions should have outperformed so for some of those more investment bank type firms so particularly GS and MS which are coming out later in the week they should perform or outperform that of the more lending oriented firms like whilst Fargo and City for example but on a sector breakdown as we go further forward into earnings obviously the biggest casualties are going to be those most locked and tied to the performance of the global economy under the pandemic so energy given the absolute rollercoaster oil prices have been on over the previous quarter in Q2 further by industrials, consumer discretionary and material so all very much linked to that global picture and sensitivity to those developments of the main part of the pandemic okay that is it from me going to let you guys get on with your day but any comments or questions please do feel free to just leave a comment I'm happy to help and I'll see you in the chat room on Amplify Live and I'll catch you tomorrow on YouTube thanks very much