 How's the day going for you guys? I'm the one standing between Jeff's talk, which I also want to attend You know and so so we'll wrap it up quickly probably we'll do more Q&A and less this so It's a pretty interesting topic first disclaimer. I'm not a designer So, you know the topic you saw is little you could mix up design with innovation But still hold true what I'm going to talk about is a lot of biases That come into play when we make decisions around product features design And if there is a way to sort of overcome that but I'm sure at the end of it I'll be looking for more ideas how to overcome, you know, so those and Linda is right here to give us some pointers So this is you know something that I came across, you know, I read a book called Thinking Fast and Slow how many of you read the book? Okay, cool. So which very very you know, it's sort of fascinating then I followed up with another book Which is called Art of Thinking Clearly Rock the Belly which is again So I'm sort of getting hooked into this concept and which you know and over a period of time as I start learning about it You know just reading about it. I realize that I think my thinking is slightly changing and you know, you're able to question it So that's a quick share of you know what I have found so far All right, so how many decisions do we make in a day? Any idea how much you know decisions, you know, your brain makes So Rough calculation, you know, a lot of reports is 32,000. We don't think about it You know right from brushing our teeth to you know at work. There are a whole bunch of decisions, you know, which are being played But how many do we you know take, you know, do we think that we are a rational decision-makers? I'm sure our bosses think that way right, you know, especially in a presence, you know right there And how many if you think you're biased in your decision-making? Oh Oh, nice. So, you know, obviously One of the study which was done is you know when they conducted and says okay How many if you are more biased than the average person and only one out of 600 said, you know that I'm more biased But otherwise everything I'm biased, but I'm doing good for now Cool. So, I mean, you know, most of you have read the book But a lot of this is about the system one system two thinking so Daniel Kahneman one of the you know Nobel Prize winners he studied, you know Behavioral science and give this whole concept that our brain has two parts to it system one and system two system one is more Also called as reflexive brain and system two is reflective So if you are brushing our teeth, we're not thinking about it. So system one is that play you just automatically, you know doing it So you could think is you know sort of anything that you're doing without thinking about it driving brushing your teeth You know any source acts all that is system one Anything where you have to think hard, you know writer you figure for idea solve a problem write algorithm is system two So in some way system one is fast and you know unconscious Automatic, you know and all the everyday design, but that is also error prone So, you know because you know brain is taking a lot of decisions at a very fast place There are tons of errors, you know that that coming to play and we're gonna talk You know some of those as I've said it Listen to is slow, you know more, you know conscious, you know, it takes a lot of effort It drains you out so after a long meeting whole day when you have been thinking about, you know Workshops or brainstorming with your team. You're pretty much tired and that part of time It starts to you know go off and suddenly, you know that you start to you know drain yourself out So almost 95% of the decisions that we take It are done by system one and not by system two even though if you if you if you just think back the amount of effort You know put in at work and if you know all the way, it's it's much more than that So obviously a lot of time you're making decisions from system one Which is not accurate and therefore we have anxiety. We have tons of issues all around in society So how do we sort of so this is the term which is called cognitive bias Which is nothing but when the brain is using system one, it is you know, it tends to do a bunch of errors Then that errors just like our code, you know leads to a lot of issues And that is what typically is referred as cognitive bias It's also sort of a mental shortcut that our brain makes You know to deal with the problem at hand and we'll quickly see what problem in some way I mean, that's my way of remembering, you know, you know, I'm sure for others. What's Indian jugar? Jugar is a hack which we Indians find out to just solve a particular problem So to me, you know, a cognitive bias is nothing but a jugar that brain finds to deal with a certain set of problems, right? So how many jugar does brain have or the biases? So there's a there are four, you know type of problem that the brain deals with and you know And therefore he has a you know, a brain has a jugar or a shortcut deal with one Too much of information, right? I mean all around we have tons of information, you know lying around So, you know, how does brain deal with all of that? It's it's overload So obviously it plays some shortcuts to make some, you know, some sort of sense Not everything has a meaning, you know, I mean or context you don't fully know about, you know All the information there are bits and pieces that you know So now it has to connect the big picture and at least retain something So it again makes some shortcut and that shortcut does not, you know, fully accurate It needs to act fast in most of the situation. So, you know, and then it again applies some shortcut How do I, you know, if I'm if I'm driving through I might not have looked on the left But you will still feel that you know, something was there, you know So what's the shortcut, you know that it has to make sense of the environment And what all to remember, you know, I'm sure you can't remember everything So if you look back, you will have some memories in childhood, but not all So there are some selective pieces that it remembers and that also has some shortcuts of You know, what to remember what not to remember Now there are about 186 biases, you know, on Wikipedia out there And it's impossible for anyone to sort of recall all of this So I recently came across, you know, one guy called, you know, Benson So he basically has taken all 186 biases Sort of done a dedupe for, you know, most of them And came up into four these broad buckets I said, you know what more or less this is the problem blaming brain is solving And these are the bias which more or less you could just, you know, understand about this We'll quickly go through some of those and, you know, and see As I go through the bias, I'll probably, you know, throw in some examples of, you know How we've been dealing at work at the products that we build And how could sort of we started to change a little bit thinking in the teams that we have Cool. So first one, too much of information, right? So, you know, what Jogar can brain do, right? The first one is we notice things that are already primed in the memory Okay, that's the first thing, you know, the brain does So because there's too much of information, anything which is recent, you will know So, example, if you bought a car, suddenly you realize, oh, you this model is what is popular You know, I think because everyone has it I remember my wife was pregnant and every time we used to roam around and says, you know what Why is it like suddenly everyone in the world is, you know, having babies, right? So it's just that those memories are prime and therefore you tend to see those more At work, the same thing goes, you're a product manager, you spoke to one customer last week And he gave you a bunch of feedback and you go to a next planning meeting And say, you know what, that customer is giving me this feedback This should be really important, though it may not be, right? So you suddenly tend to lose the rationale and put those recent things out And you start elaborating, you know what, I was speaking to the customer This is what happened and that bias is at play So the moment you know this, you will know that bias is at play And then you start questioning, okay, do you have data on that? All right, how many times, how many other customers have the same problem? So you start sort of dealing with that and that's something we have done So some of my product managers who have now trained in I just took them through this biases and suddenly, you know, when we go in the room Before anything, he says, okay, is there any bias? And then everyone tries to recall, oh, I think this is availability bias right there So because some customers were speaking, therefore, let me go back and research more And then get back where we should do it Brain remembers the other, you know, Jigar They all, you know, brain remembers the most bizarre or, you know, sort of Visually striking thing that you could do And that is what marketers play on They make the visuals so different That you will remember the very different ad which was there And not, you know, everything that you do So this is also one of the ways that Since brain has a bias and when, you know, marketers also know about it How do you tap on to that and leverage it to your, you know, favor? So when you're designing product, if it's visually more appealing Certain screens, obviously, it'll have more longer effect So you could definitely leverage, you know, so those mental biases Anyone knows what is the bias at play here? So most of the pricing menu, if you see, you've seen three or four combos So that's also one of the way mental, you know, shortcut is anchoring So when you do a negotiation, you know, with even your, you know, grossie guys He will throw you a price And, you know, negotiation one-on-one, you know, sort of has classes That anyone who sets the anchor first, you're negotiating for your salary Whoever throws that number first, that anchors what will happen next So, you know, that much leverage you have And based on the anchor, you know, then the whole negotiation will start So this is nothing but what price do we want to sell it to the customer? Now, obviously, if we just give them one I think the anchor is set, but I think people will not be satisfied Because there are other biases at play So they will look for more options So therefore you throw him, you know, some pseudo options right there Ultimately he's going to go for this anyways So most of the pricing pages, if you look at some of the plan At least the, you know, thoughtfully designed one 85% of them are right visually highlighted right there So there's two things, anchoring and contrast Both biases at play and therefore they design the whole screen That contrast is also a similar one So we basically are noticing anything which is changing So, you know, you run your hand in the cold water And put it into the hot water Suddenly the hot water will feel, you know, in a different temperature Even if the temperature is not changed It's just the contrast, you know, you've done But there's a joke which goes If you're going to date, never take, you know The friends who are more beautiful than you or handsome than you Otherwise your chances of date is, you know, totally gone Because there will be a contrast bias, you know So if you're in a room full of, you know, handsome, good looking people You might seem little more average, you know Even though you're not, right Cool, quick question So what is the answer for this? So if a card has a wobble on the front And an even number on the back Right, which of the two cards will test this rule? Why do you think so? Cool, so this is where it's called confirmation bias So ultimately we are drawn to, you know, the details Where it's just sort of confirming you So you think A is a, you know, wobble, right So it confirms, okay, A is a wobble Let me just test it If the backside is an even number, it test it But the other way to do it Why don't you go and test the other one? If you pick seven, seven is an odd number And if you flip it, right And it doesn't turn out to be loyal It'll, you know, fail the test So we don't look for negative sort of tests But we look for positive one So this is also, you know, one of the big bias Which is actually most common at play So every time you have a, you know You think this feature is going to work Suddenly you start gathering data to just make that work Even though it is not working So the whole point is How do you objectively look at the data And then decide and do some negative tests Okay, if this is the data at play What else can I bring in which sort of falsifies this So you think sort of like a scientist And you try to fail it And then it starts to sort of, you know Become a little more clearer Right, so there are a bunch of biases Which sort of conform to this shortcut, you know From the way Okay, the other one, you know Obviously, I'm going to skip some of those Same if there's too much information We start finding faults in people And we think, you know what, we're not wrong I think those guys is wrong You know, the guy who thinks A little more, you know, black is this Is wrong, but I'm not biased But, you know, ultimately That's a biased blind spot Which most of us have So the point is How do you rationally look at that And then make your decisions around that Cool, so the second shortcut brain makes is You know, if there's not enough meaning How do we make sense of Some of those things that are coming up Right, so we find stories and patterns That sort of, you know In within the worst sort of possible Different data We suddenly start to think Okay, something is happening I see this data And then suddenly you start to draw Some pattern out of that Even though the truth might be far from reality And that comes up You know, when most of the user research And, you know, stuff you will see You will see some of those biases at play I've already made up my mind That, you know, what this is going to work I start asking questions Okay, how does it, you know Do you think this will solve your problem? I mean, you have not asked fully about the problem But do you think it will solve the problem? I mean, obviously they'll start, you know Responding, yeah, it will But so it starts to go in a totally different direction So one of the things that we definitely do is You know, we don't talk about solutions Unless everyone in the room Has understood the problem space really well So the first sort of 20 minutes of any discussion Is all about problem You know, just don't bring in any solution at play Everyone has understood the problem What is the implication? What is the data? And then you start building the, you know Hypothesis saying This feature Probably will start solving this problem Right, and then, you know That sort of, you know Devices your thinking We feel gaps with stereotypes, right So typically if you, you know If you have to ask Five features between, you know Android and iPhone Okay Most of the normal guys, you know If you go It'll be very, very hard for them to, you know Pick it up But we don't have that information So we look up to stereotypes, you know What one of my friend also has This is also called bandwagon effect So typically you see a huge queue Before any big releases And people will be lying to, you know Sort of buy the phone Because everyone else is buying as well So we start to group think, you know In a certain way So one of the way also to sort of Devices to objectively look at it And say Is this at play And what can we do about that All right What is this one So we look at the cigarette packet All the time It says cigarette smoking is injurious to health We ignore that Because someone in our family It's been, you know Alive till hundred She's been smoking all the way So it's not going to happen to me Come on, you know There's no chance Even though there's Probability-wise this is totally different But we start to think, you know In that direction So most And this is played big time So people know That this buys will be at play So they could leverage as well So, you know, the thing is How do you objectively look at the probability What is the probability for something like this to happen And if it is equal You can't bias certain decisions, you know In the others Right So our brain sort of simplifies probability Because we can't measure it Sorry All right So then certain things, you know Are, yeah I'm going to skip some of those So there is there are hindsight buys There is, you know The third category is The brain has to act pretty fast I'm going to rush to some of those And come to conclusion In some of those And in this case, you have both questions Already all the time Right So if our, you know So one of the thing If you've seen the reality shows Have you seen some of the guys who go and think that They are an amazing singer And when you listen to their voices They say, what was this guy smoking Why did he even go there That's called, you know Dunning trigger effect So ultimately, you know Our mind is hacked You know, their mind has been hacked In some way Where they now start to think that, you know what I can sing pretty well And suddenly that over-conference starts building up And obviously, you know And so it has a sort of a curve Where they are at the peak And then they have suddenly, you know Sort of delusion about this They go out, do something And they start, you know, in despair And end up with depression And, you know, all sorts of things This one Sure So this is a mental shortcut Where, you know, ultimately See, in some way it is a biases It's not with everyone But in some case, you acquire a skill And pretty soon You start to think that, you know what You're good at it You're really good at it And then you start to go and In case there are folks at play Which sort of group thing and, you know, they'll say Oh, yeah, you're really good And suddenly you are at the epitome of Your, you know, conference Even though your skill level is not objectively grown And then it starts to, you know, play about And we see it all the time, right I mean, you might think that I'm just going to give it a try In the reality show But if you've seen the show How do you compare yourself with those persons? You know, in that pinch one And suddenly your reality is distorted on that Anything else you had mind? Yeah Okay Cool Then there are other, you know, bunch of things So, I mean, there are some of the So ultimately some of this is about numbers So, you know, if you've given a reward And there are a bunch of, you know So I'm going to leave that deck to you guys You could study each of them Okay Okay, probably I'll skip one or two Just pick one or two The last one is If there's not enough memory Okay, sure Yeah, the last one that is always like Cool So, ultimately there are those four buckets if you Okay, sure All right No, I'm sure Look, so we can discuss it probably open So, I mean, the key thing that you can derive Is those four shortcuts So if it is, you know, not enough There's too much of information What is that play? So you sort of look at it objectively If it's not enough evidence at play And you know, the context is missing How do you make sense of it? And those biases will keep coming into play Third is decision to, you know, sort of act fast How do you act fast on that? And then, you know, memory What do you memorize? Some of the things, for example, you know I'm going to pick Negative device, right? So, a lot of you would know that A lot of deep negative, you know, evidences Also, you know, sort of if you associate with them You tend to sort of, you know, have it Longer time in your memory So a lot of time What will be remembered by the brain Is not about how old it is But about how much impact does it have So, you know, one of the So I was watching a TED talk And one of the hacks some of them do If you really want to remember something Pick out a sort of totally different object And associate with it right there So next time when you go down the memory lane You will think about that object And suddenly you'll recall more Than by not associating it So some of those hacks could really help you In memorizing more But also to sort of use this in your product decisions To, you know, sort of make sure that You're associating something with While building your product that customers would remember And therefore would be able to recall All right, I'm going to add one last one Okay So there are some more, you know, examples That I would lead out in case you guys want Just a joke So ultimately, so this is what is called, you know The Sorry So I mean, ultimately one of the examples that I was giving Is most of us think we are not biased But obviously the biases are at play And you're going to be sort of aware about that Okay, so what do we make out of this? So just one or two slides on the key conclusion How sort of brain starts to act First thing we discuss that there's too much information So a lot of noise suddenly starts to become signal to your brain That you know what, you know, something is play And subconsciously it is, it is becoming a signal If it is not enough meaningful thing That signal ultimately becomes a story So you will, you know, go to a room and someone say, you know What I was talking to this customer, this was happening Now that signal of what customer gave Certainly becomes a story that is being told without fact Because you're not questioning it And that story suddenly leads to a certain decision that You know what, we should go and do AI Machine learning You've heard that Because you know, if you go about that path This is exactly what is happening You know, someone went to a conference Looked at AI blockchain Oh yeah, this is, you know, that's a signal You should be doing that Because that same guy in the similar other company Is doing it Then come back, tell your team Suddenly team is prepped up That's, you know, ultimately leads to a new practice being created You know, most of the companies now have AI blockchain practice What they're doing is different thing Ultimately, once that decision is done It sort of affects our mental model in the brain And therefore, you know, you think, okay This is how the decision is made So therefore now, you know The next time you're in the same situation You'll take similar decisions Cool Now one of the shortfall of all of this mental jugger Is this Since we don't, we selectively filtering out Tons of information Obviously every time we are leaving out something And that something could be important Right, so therefore when you're looking at the data You start looking at Is there anything that we're missing out And it's just that small step You know, or certain questions So we have, at least I could share later We could, we built a sort of checklist For some of the decision making on product Which our guys used You know, and it sort of drives them Or at least points them to one of these biases And it just acts as a check You know, they might not know about the biases But it acts as a check Second thing is, you know, our search for meaning You know, sort of starts to fill in the gaps So ultimately if you look at it There's tons of theories and some fact We'll start filling in it And later, you know, that becomes sort of a You know, signal that brain will always remember You know, on part of that So quick decisions Anything when you're doing a, you know, quickly Obviously could be flawed So if you remember that system one is at play Stop back, think about it more Put frozen cons and switch to system two is You know, where some of these will start to work All right, so obviously, you know, the key thing For me and if it could be you For as a product manager, since you are responsible For tons of decisions Knowing some of these biases will start Helping you in your day to day decision making Obviously, there's no tonic, no shot For de-biasing your brain So all you could do is sort of learn about each And see how is that is working for you So, I mean, ultimately because of that decisions You know, you ultimately will help In doing more innovation or design work All right, two or three steps which I've put Obviously, you know, how do you make system two I've already covered that How do you make system two to do all the work The other one, the technique really works is If you come across a bias and you sort of observe something And there's an association in your mind How do you consciously disassociate yourself With that fact And that starts to sort of change, you know, your biases So, I mean, every time if you have said something You know what, he's such a bad driver And then think back, okay, why are you sort of associating You know, yourself Is there a fact, is there data to support it And, you know, that starts to then Next time I think you will notice that it's The impact is lesser And slowly your mind is trained to do different things It's no brainer All right The other one for product obviously Is to build multiple hypotheses So, you know, if you have one feature Think of two or three hypotheses And say, you know what, if you do this This is going to happen If you do this, this is going to happen That way you will not be biased towards just one thing And end up doing it So if you have two or three hypotheses Then probably one of it will work And you will have a choice to, you know, sort of make this out All right So being aware really helps Which is the graveyard I've said Because most of the decisions if you go In hindsight and reflect on it How did you arrive at that conclusion Which starts to sort of impact that part Challenge biases openly Most of us, you know, right from racism to everything We face in a day-to-day basis But we don't challenge them If you start challenging them Probably the other person as well will become aware And therefore he will do something about it So, I mean, if you see this four In fact, this is the recent one You know, the guy's done So ultimately these four buckets Thinking these four buckets will really start to help And for each of those, you know, one or two is good enough So there are like 10 to 15 That probably, you know, I could append here Which ultimately will start to help But ultimately it's not about You could just suddenly change Some of this is more about Mindfulness, more about, you know Doing some of those things to step back and look at it And a lot of times just by knowing them That that is at play And just thinking about it itself Slowly will build that up All right, diversity I mean, you know, we talk about diversity But one of the way diversity really helps Is because it brings in a different point of view And once you have a different point of view The decisions are much different than what it was All right, so what do you get When you combine cognitive bias with inaccurate information I'm sure you have all your roadmaps out there So go and challenge that and see if it changes anything These three things definitely, I mean, out of all the books This is really helping So I'm sure you guys go and pick it up And read through Thank you, any questions? Yeah, all the slides in the conference Will be available on the website right next to the talks Probably in two or two days I could add that for sure I could add it in the text All right, thank you