 G'day, I'm Moosa Killink and I work as a fire behaviour analyst for the CFA. Today, I'm going to give you some insights about the bushfire seasonal outlook for the summer period. But first of all, let's have a look at the recent rainfall conditions. Here we've got rainfall decile maps over the last six months, which essentially show how rainfall for the period compares to the long-term average for the similar period. What we can see from these graphs or maps is that over the last six months and more recently during October, there has been a clear rainfall deficit or below to very much below average rainfall conditions extending between East Gippsland north of the divide into the Goldfields and in the Malley region. This rainfall deficit has been more pronounced over the last month and in fact during October, rainfall was recorded to be 8th lowest on record. So what this essentially all means is that there's a soil moisture deficit in forest landscapes across Victoria, which essentially will increase the fuel load and the flammability in these forest types. The seasonal outlook for November to February period indicate that the Indian Ocean dipole is likely to influence our climate during the remainder of the spring period as well as into summer. What this means is that our climate during this period will be warmer and drier across Victoria. However, pastoral crop yields at the west of the state are likely to be average to above average for that period. If we compare our current rainfall trends to previous five seasons, what we can see is that the rainfall deficit that we're currently experiencing across Victoria is in line with historically severe forest fire seasons. As a result, we may experience high consequence events during summer where fires interact with residential or communities near forest environments. However, there is high uncertainty of when and where these events will occur as there needs to be a pretty strong alignment with localised weather conditions as well. So what does this all mean for operational and management considerations? Well, we know that there's definitely a long-term moisture deficit in Gippsland. As a result, chances of plume-dominated bushfire in these areas are increased. Fire danger ratings in forest environments are also likely to underestimate the level of fire risk. Due to the underlying dryness in forests, flammability and scorch heights are likely to be higher than normal which may affect tree mortality and increased tree hazard. Consideration should be given to increased blacking out and patrol fires that occur in severely dried out forests. This is to decrease the chance of re-ignition and spread of fire back into the landscape. We need to be also mindful about crop fires as farmers increase their use of machinery during this harvest period. Burn-off escapes prior to the fire danger period is also likely to increase the fire risk for this time of year. Due to the higher crop yields, fires that establish in crop lands or grasslands are also likely to become harder to control, meaning the increased use of aircraft may be necessary to increase the first attack response capability, especially in the western part of the state. This is to prevent large grass fire potential. Well that's all from me folks. If you have any questions or feedback, please email us at cfa-projective-services at cfa.vic.gov.au