 Yes. Hello. Hello. We have, we have the man of the hour, the man of the hour spent. What's going on? All right. All right. I'm sorry about that, man. No, no problem at all. No worries at all. So yeah, welcome everyone. Welcome. F green. I know we popped in VV as well. And I don't know who hate. So, so this is basically just a call regarding the business cycle. I spent way to let me just meet you. She got some background was going on spent wanted to ask, I guess, and get some clarification on the business cycle. And maybe some other things as well we could cover. I've got a little bit of time on my hands this afternoon. So again, any questions you guys want to ask regarding, you know, the fundamentals, whether it's economic cycles, inflation, interest rates, feel free to ask and put them in the chat. So, and I can just try and go over anything that you guys may not, you know, understand or may need clarification. So with that being said, Spank, if you want to, yeah, just ask maybe, you know, your questions or a couple of questions specifically regarding, you know, the business cycle and what you want to just clarify, you can unmute yourself. And so for me, so for me, I'm like doing top down analysis. And, and yeah, I'll just, I'm always getting stuck up like, you know, I know it's not a, you know, 100% where we're going to be at in the GDP cycle. I always get confused of the part, Mike, you know, like, you know, what, what, what, you know, what part of the cycle we in, you know, using GDP, and I use GDP and jobs, or whatever, unemployment rate, you know, whatever. Right. Okay, so it's, it's at the moment. And in this particular point in time, because I know you've got the background is going on one second. Yeah, thanks, Spank. Like, so the business cycle is what we know to typically happen and what has happened historically. Yeah. So everything in the, I guess in the fundamental PDF and the test in that year is based off of just what we know to be true about, you know, economics, historically. Now we're in a very strange time, right? This is one of the reasons why when we recently had the, the US go into a technical recession. Yeah, we had a, I guess the governing body. I always keep remembering forgetting what the, what the governing body are called, but basically I think they're called something, I don't know what they're called. Anyways, they basically declared the fact that we're not in a recession. Yes, technically, we've had, we say we, but the US have had two negative quarters of growth quarterly growth, right. And so, you know, but they haven't declared a recession and normally it's because of the fact that, you know, you would need I think unemployment and employment to also reflect what would typically be a recession. Now we've got the opposite, right? We've got low unemployment, you know, great employment, but we're in a technical recession. So it's almost like, well, where are we in terms of on the business cycle, right? And as you said, I'm glad you said, well, glad you kind of said it in terms of, you know, it's not perfect. And nothing ever is perfect. This is just, I guess, a template of what we should look towards, but also we need to be dynamic enough in our thinking to understand that, you know, expansions or recoveries don't always lead to expansions. If everything was that simple, then it would be fantastic, right? In fact, a recovery, yeah, can lead to a, you know, back to a bit of a recession. I wouldn't necessarily say bust or slump, but it can actually, you know, go back because we could end up falling backwards into a bit of a recession, right. We could fail, yeah. And then we could, like I said, end up back into, you know, negative growth. So although, yes, we understand the cycle from the perspective of how it should operate and how economies generally do operate. There are times where, you know, there could be, for example, we go from a boom to a bit of a contraction, but then back to boom again, right? So we have to recognize where we are or potentially, or where we are, first of all, and then potentially where we are going to, right, which is really what fundamentals is all about. It's about future value and future projections. Now, everyone kind of knows that the, on the horizon is a potential, is a potential recession, right. We've seen it in all of the articles that I've been reading recently, if you have been reading them. So we've been seeing, you know, Europe potentially going into a recession, the UK going into a potential recession. The US potentially avoiding a recession or having a, you know, maybe into a light recession. I posted some things today. I think BlackRock was saying in their video that, you know, recession is actually, you know, quite unlikely, right. So it's almost like there's a fork in the road. So do we head into a recession, right? Or do we not? Do we continue to potentially, you know, grow and still recover and maybe go into the expansion phase, right? So into recovery phase or potential expansion or stay in a recovery expansion. And by the way, I think that some of these economic states are also interchangeable as well in terms of, you know, you could be in a recovery phase, yeah, or into a potential expansion phase. And, you know, for a little while, which then may sit and we may never really get to the boom phase. So we could see an expansion, but then we could skip the boom and maybe go straight into a potential contraction. Yeah, as well. So again, if this is not set in stone, it's not a case of, you know, we're going into six and we're going to go back into, we're definitely headed into a boom. That may not happen. That may not happen. Typically it does, but it may not. There are things that happen in life, right? And nothing is certain. So at the moment, it's, it's we're in this, we're in this strange phase where we've got potential economic slowdown. But what we don't have in that economic slowdown into a recession is high unemployment, which is what we would typically see in a recession and low employment. Yeah. So it's, again, it's a very, very strange one. This is the first time I'm living through something like this, or, you know, trading through it. And so what really is, you know, important in terms of what's more important, I guess, is actually, I think, understanding where we are potentially headed, rather than where we actually are. And it's obviously great to see where we actually are. But remember the market was always forward thinking. Yeah, it's always looking to price in. Yeah, what the value of a currency is based off of, you know, it's, it's the future. Yeah. So whether we, whether some, some people might, you know, assume that we're we over the past maybe a few months or years, we might have been probably in the expansion phase. Did we ever touch the boom phase with the economy? Things have been a bit upside down when it comes to, you know, COVID was a bit of a strange one because we had massive, you know, massive dip when you consider negative GDP. If you go to trading economics, one second, you'll see what I'm talking about. If you go to trading economics, you'll see from a GDP perspective, you know, we've had, you know, low lows, high highs, and then we've kind of been bouncing around a little bit one seconds. So if we go to a quick question. Yeah. So basically you're saying, I ain't nothing but saying basically, but you're saying kind of like we can stay in either phase for, for years at a time or maybe months at a time. Exactly. Exactly. We can stay in there. We can be in the expansion phase for years, right? We can, and we can never necessarily, you know, maybe reach the boom phase because the boom, we might, for example, plateau, right? We might be in a nice sweet spot where, you know, the economy is ticking along, but it doesn't necessarily like a boom would be, for example, China over the, you know, over maybe that, you know, since the 90s, right? Where you had that massive economic boom, that massive commodities boom. Did we ever, have we seen anything like that in the US or the UK over the past five, six, seven years? No, not really, right? We haven't seen that kind of boom. So, you know, we can be in that recovery expansion phase for a little bit, but we're not, we're not, what we're not doing is we're not trying to see where, let me put it this way. Although we need to see where we are, it's what's more important is where we are going. Will we continue to stay in this expansion potential growth phase of the economic cycle? Or could we see the go into the contraction, you know, bus, you know, recession bus slump phase? That is really what we're trying to trade. Yeah. So going back to what I was trying to talk about, so indicators, countries, United States, and let's go to GDP growth rate, right? So you can see, let's actually maybe take a bit more of a step step back, right? So you can see pretty much from 2014, you know, we've kind of been in this and when I say we, I mean, you know, the US has been in this strange phase, right? Over the last three, four years, and then you go back even more. And it's, it looks like it's just, you know, flatlining a bit, right? But within this, you would have had potential contraction, but we didn't actually go into a recession, right? You would think going to recession, then that could have been, and I remember correctly, you know, it was going into the recovery expansion phase, right? Because remember, to negative quarters, you need to negative quarters of GDP growth, right? It happened back in 20, I guess, 14 for maybe a period might have been a quarter or so. And then you had, you know, what would have been a potential recovery expansion, a bit of a contraction? I mean, you know, I mean, it's, it's not, it's not set in stone. It's not like one thing follows the other exactly. Yeah, because the, you know, the Fed, the government are really trying to steer the economy as best they can. But you did have, and in this period, you have had periods of economic recoveries, economic expansions, and then maybe a bit of a contraction and then recovery again and expansion. And then we've had this where you had this massive, you know, dropping GDP. And then we had this massive recovery expansion, which I would hesitate to call it a boom, yeah? Because, you know, definitely the economy wasn't booming. And then we've had this period where, you know, the economy contracted again. And then, do you know what I mean? So it's, it's, it's, it's very, it's a very difficult thing to say, you know, to try and predict that we are definitely going into the boom phase from a recovery or an expansion phase. Does it, I'm not going to explain this, okay. So that dip in GDP was a risk. Well, no, well, as in, as in currently, as in this year, you're talking about spanking. No, the other dip, like the big 2020. Yeah, yes, that would have been, that would have, you know, been the recession, right? This is where COVID happened at the beginning of 2020. Yeah. So this is where, you know, unemployment, you know, went, went, you know, kind of through the roof. And then, you know, people being laid off and businesses were closing, et cetera, et cetera, right? And then we quickly recovered, right? The entire recovery phase really, really quickly. And then expanded, but then prices, you know, say prices, but GDP contracted again. And, you know, but what was most important was just understanding at every point where we were potentially going, when we were in this, you know, the recession and potential heading into the bus slump phase, you know, one of the questions was potentially, well, for how long, right? How long are we going to stay down here? Or are we going to go into the recovery phase? Or are we going to continue to stay in this recession, you know, and bust or slump phase? Again, nobody really knew. It took, I think most people by surprise, the economy recovering as quickly as it did, right? Nobody could have really seen such a quick recovery after, you know, an unprecedented global lockdown, right? So as we know, again, to consecutive quarters, right, of negative growth is considered a recession. And there was a recession in that period, but then we quickly expanded. So I guess getting to really the point in, you know, and to kind of wrap this up in terms of where, how do we trade fundamentals? How do I identify where we are? So let's do a, let's do a consensus, if anything, right? If you would say on the economic cycle over the past six months, yeah, over the past six months, or year, I would say over the past year, where you are, let's say, for example, over the US, you've seen this type of growth, a bit erratic, right? But, you know, a bit up and down prices, GDP has kind of been, you know, growing and then maybe contracting a little bit, etc, etc. Now, would you have said what phase of the economic cycle would you have said this is not necessarily looking at the chart so much, but just based off of your own experience in terms of, you know, unemployment, unemployment, you know, your personal circumstances and what you've seen in the economy over the past, you know, year, year and a half. What would you say has been where would you be in the economic cycle? Would you say we've probably been more in the recovery phase of the economic cycle? So this being, you know, bust slump, so we definitely weren't in, all right, let's do a process of elimination. Were we in the bustle slump phase of the economic cycle? Over the past two years? Does anyone, would anyone say, would anyone say that over the past two years, we were in the bustle slump phase of the economic cycle? No, Spain says no, I would say no, Vitaly says no, right, so definitely not. We definitely haven't been in the bustle slump phase since we had the rollout of the vaccine and people being getting back to work, you know, job creation, etc, etc. You know, we could never say that it was in the bustle slump phase, right? Would you say then we were in a recession phase? Were we in a recession phase over the past, you know, over the past two years? Did it feel like a recession to you guys? No, right, so then we just eliminate that, right? So we haven't had again, high unemployment, low employment, etc. Which then leaves a few, right? Were we really in, were we booming in fact? Would you consider the fact that, you know, we are in the, we were in the boom phase of the economic cycle? Would anyone can, you know, assume that over the past couple of years? Would anyone say that we were in the boom phase of the economic cycle? And maybe those who are old enough to maybe recognize a bit of a, a bit of a boom would be maybe something to compare it to would be, does anyone remember the period probably, you know, around just before maybe the housing crash of 2007, 2008, you know, where everyone was pretty much buying property and, you know, everything was lovely, right? We had just come out of the, I think, what was it called again, the dot-com bubble when everything was looking all right. And we were in that kind of rosy period. It might have been rosy for you, but, you know, for the economy. Does anyone remember that period? I would probably say that's maybe, you know, as close as, yeah, as close as an artificial boom, as you can probably, you know, call it, right? You can call it a bubble, you can call it a bubble, but would you then, would you still say we were, we were in more of a recovery phase or the expansion phase? That would feel like what the expansion phase was like. So if you compare that to maybe the past two years, yeah, since we recovered from COVID, does it feel the same as that? Does the last two years feel the same as, you know, maybe not exactly. I would say the same thing, Edwin. It wouldn't really feel the same. So it's not really a boom, yeah, which then kind of leaves really the options of recovery, yeah, expansion and contraction, right? So we've eliminated really the extremes. And we would probably say, you know, I would probably guess we were somewhere between the recovery and the expansion phase. That's where I would say where we were. And yeah, but QE made a lot of people spend absolutely because they had to, you know, support the economy and support businesses 100%. But to kind of identify where we've been or where, you know, over the past two years, would anyone disagree that we were probably somewhere between the recovery and an expansion phase, especially when you think about, you know, decent GDP and employment. Anyone would disagree with that? Or would anyone want to agree with that? More of a recovery. Yeah, I mean, yeah, either way, right? Either way, that that times it didn't look like we were, you know, heading into the expansion phase. Yeah, but everyone's pretty much saying probably more of a recovery phase. Right, brilliant. So recovery, stroke expansion, but more more in the recovery phase, right? So there we are. So we've kind of established now where we are likely and it is kind of subjective again to your life and where you are as well and how well you're doing in life, right? But overall, I would have said we were somewhere between that recovery going into a potential, you know, expansion at one point. Obviously, you know, the recency bias would suggest other ones, but over the past two years or at least year and a half, you know, we've, I think we've definitely been more in the recovery phase. Yeah. So that's where I would say we are. Now, what's more important, yeah, is understanding where we're going, right? Because we need to understand future value to get ahead of, you know, the market. So where do we go? There is no exact number to quantify. No, there isn't an exact number, unfortunately, and fundamentals don't necessarily work like that. It's more of, it's think about, I think more in terms of more of a trend in terms of looking back over, you know, a period of time rather than a specific number. That's what I would say. Because ultimately that's how you measure growth, right? It's over a period of time. So just look at maybe GDP over the past, you know, few, maybe a year or so, one second. Let me just do something. So you would probably look at, you know, the last. So for example, from January, yeah, look at from January 2021 to where we are currently. Yeah, this was, we had positive growth, 4.5, 6.3, 6.7, a bit of a dip, 2.3, 6.9. Yes, the last two quarters haven't been great, but that wouldn't suggest, you know, those numbers over the past, you know, from the beginning of January, and even when you think about, you know, just before, let me just turn off my covers, Mike, can I mute you? If you can mute yourself, why can't I mute it? Right. Yeah, when you look at the actual data from, from, from say, you know, end of 2020 towards the end of 2020, the economy, yeah, was growing at a decent rate, right? It was actually growing decently. So again, when I say, you know, expansion, recovery, stroke expansion, yeah. Again, it can be a slightly subjective, but we definitely weren't in the other phases. We definitely weren't in the boom phase and we definitely weren't in the recession bus slump phase and we weren't really contracting in terms of, you know, consistent contractions. So yeah, expansion, recovery expansion phase. And now we've kind of, you know, gone into this recession phase. So it kind of feels, I guess, more that we're heading back into a recession, right? But looking at this over a period of time, I would have said, you know, expansion, recovery expansion phase. Now, we know where we are. Yeah. Where are we going? Edwin says, you know, almost expansion. Yeah, you can say almost expansion, maybe just recovery. But where are we going now? Again, just quick, I was just gonna ask, I was just gonna say, so we got the two negative quarters. But so I'm, so I'm guessing since unemployment rate is still, you know, tightening, I guess that's what that's why they're not saying that we technically in the Exactly. Okay. Exactly. You know, to know what as well, I want to find this. I don't know if anyone, I think, I think, I think, let me, let me just look for this quickly. There's a, there's a, there was a really good article where from Wells Fargo. Give me two seconds. Yeah. Give me two seconds. Let me just find this. I've got this group of screen. Typical. Somebody wants to join now. All right, let me just find this because I'm in the meeting now. I'll just, just do it. It was from, does anyone remember that article from Wells Fargo where it was talking about a recession I made a mental note to see if I could just save it. I'm sure I'll put it in the bank analysis for search and scroll up. Here we go. This is the one. Right guys. This is it. Everyone can see my screen. Yeah. All right. Brilliant. Cool. So this is, this was really important to read and I'll put the link, I'll put the link in the chat. Have a read of this bank and everybody. Because remember as well, like I said, I'm, I'm showing you what typically happens and as we know we're living through, you know, unprecedented times. So this is the first time I'm living through this as well. So I'm figuring this stuff out just like you are. But it's not so much, you know, in terms of you try not to think so statically about it and kind of think to yourself, you know, this is what should happen. In terms of the economy, you know, moving forward, it's, it's, you have to kind of vary and I use the word again, keep using it be a bit dynamic with it is just, is just follow along with what the banks are saying and doing more than what you would probably do in the textbooks. The textbook studio, a great foundation. And you should definitely understand that. And as long as you do understand it, you'll understand what the banks are saying. But if you follow along with what, you know, these guys are telling you, then it makes things a lot easier. One of the things where was it now it says it's basically in the summary was saying that even if GDP post back to back the clients so this was I think just before it did post back to back the clients the economy is not yet in recession, though we suspect it will be in six months so they think six months from basically by the end of the year. So because defining something as important as a recession is more than mere semantics. Yeah, so they're telling you, you know, don't be so, you know, specific about, you know, defining where we are because it is very, very dynamic in terms of, you know, what we will determine to be or what the world does determine to be a recession. Yes, we know to negative quarters, but a recession is more than mere semantics. Yeah, this report impacts the right variables to watch and introduces at a new glance, sorry, introduces introduces a new at a glance tool to get the next recession call right so they're just telling you instantly yes. The world knows that we've gone into to, you know, negative quarters. Yeah, but it's more than that because we understand the jobs aspect of things this is not a usual or a typical situation that we find ourselves in. It says to his two consecutive quarters of negative growth is one working definition of a recession, but it's not the official one. It's strange that because we just come to find out now. Yeah. So again, I think we were talking about them moving the goalposts and whatever it is. And yet they have right they kind of have moved the goalposts and I think they've had to in terms of what the definition of a recession is because, again, we're in very strange times very unprecedented times we don't have, we're not in what we would typically call a recession they're still, like you say, a type labor market, etc, etc. So they say that the definitive US recession call is up to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Yeah, so that's the the organization whose business cycle dating committee determines the start and end dates for each economic cycle. So maybe you want to Google them keep, you know, a tab, keep a tab on basically what they're talking about and what they're what they're doing and when they label, you know, the economy to be an official recession. I guess we would know about it anyway because we'd see it on Bloomberg and we'd read about it right. The committee considers a recession to involve a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months in quotations. The committee relies on six variables of monthly activity when dating an economic cycle which fall into our four primary categories production income employment and spending. So what is what we refer to as pies. In short, we do not think the economy is in a recession present. If our forecast is correct, this is not so much of a head fake, as it is a harbinger of worse to come as you are forecasting the economy to enter a mild recession early next year. So we've defined where we are. Yeah. The expansion phase where we're potentially going into a potential recession. Just wasn't a recession or what you know the the the National Bureau of Economic Research would term a recession, but we are definitely heading into what the contraction phase is what we are probably into, you know, right now and going into. So when we see again looking at the the where we were over the past, you know, few, you know, maybe a year or so we were in that recovery, potentially heading into that expansion phase. And now what's happened is, you know, the economy has gone probably back into the the contraction, sorry, that's a recession phase back into the contraction as we start to slow down to think about every, I guess the best way to look at this as well as to kind of look at every. I guess every phase of the economic cycle as having a, again, like a fork in the road or a juncture, we could either go into expansion, or we could go into. Even from the contraction phase, do we necessarily go have to go into a recession. Absolutely not we could go basically from a contraction. Yeah, maybe back into and skip the recession and bust slump phase, and actually go into a potential, you know, recovery. Yeah, or back into a potential expansion phase. Yeah, so each one of these can each one of these phases of the economic cycle. Yeah, has an option and I know it's not reflected on here and you know as as you know and it's a great question, which has basically made me kind of figured this out I wouldn't say figure it out on the fly too much but you know just understand it and maybe visualize it because I'm quite a visual person myself so whenever I'm thinking about things I tend to think about them in terms of you know how to visualize it. And so this is how I'm visualizing each of these phases is understanding yes we understand the basics of the phase. And then, as we actually delve deeper into the each, each phase, we can actually, again, go in from a recovery to a contraction, or a contraction to maybe back into recovery or an expansion, etc. I guess we are right so right now we are in that I would say probably now in that contraction phase and especially that's been I guess confirmed when we when we think about you know stagflation right stagflation what is stagflation is when you have economic economic contraction. Yeah, economic contraction and rising inflation. So stagflation fears are confirming to us that we are actually in the contraction phase currently we were in this recovery phase. You know, from COVID, we were in the recovery heading into potentially expansion that's obviously not materialized and we've headed back into the contraction phase with rising inflation, hence stagflation. Ken says I don't think we hit a hard recession. I think it will be mild yeah I've been reading that as well as well in the US that is you know in the US. I think the UK will hit a very hard recession unfortunately think we're going to be in. We're going to be harder hit which is the reason why you're seeing the dollar, the pound dollar, you know, I mean kind of fall off a cliff to a certain degree. The pound just get weaker and weaker. It does depend on the growth and the US will have some growth yet because Eric's I think the third quarter three, I think is expected to be in the growth phase or there's going to be some at least some economic expansion I don't know what the number was. In terms of that, I think if I remember correctly, does anyone remember seeing 0.3% or am I making that up? Does anyone remember seeing that number from a third quarter growth? I'm not too sure. Where do I think growth will come from? No idea mate. No idea. It's that something that I think is something that you if you want to get into the nitty gritty of it. No idea if you get into I think you can kind of maybe try and figure that out in terms of looking at, you know, will it come from retail? Who knows? Will it come from manufacturing sector? I couldn't tell you. I couldn't tell you, Edwin, where it may come from. All I do, what I do know though is that the forecasts from banks and the forecasts, you know, what the expectations are for the third quarter are for growth. One second. Let me just clear this and let me just go into the United States to second quarter. Don't you have the forecasts? I thought they would have had the forecasts by now. Okay, normally they would have had the forecasts for the third quarter. I guess we can look at it from, let's look at it. Edwin said same as last quarter from positive to negative. From positive to negative. It tells what it tells the third quarter. Edwin, forecasts keep getting advised. Yeah, I mean they do. They do. One second. Let me just go to the where I know just off the top of the head where there are some forecasts and I think ING have updated their forecasts. Right. So GDP growth, third quarter, so it was 1.9. This is what the latest, so it's the fifth, sorry, so they've updated their quarter. So they're expecting growth, at least in for the US and then 1.6, sorry, 0.6, 0.6. And they're expecting a potential, doesn't look like we potentially going into a recession in the U.S. is where is somewhere like the U.K. they expect a recession going into at least the first second quarters, France and Germany. And it's difficult because they haven't got, actually they do have the Eurozone. So they think the Eurozone starts to go to negative in the first and second quarters and stay in there for at least three quarters. Yeah, so ING are more positive on their U.S. economic cycle and the growth phase whereas Euro, they don't see Europe going into a deeper recession, they see the U.S. going into or actually avoiding a recession. So Ken says, so in the U.S. manufacturing, you're still growing, the services are slowing, which is expected after the summer. Also, U.S. is starting to manufacture things like chips, etc. Look at business confidence, yeah. And I guess for you, Ken, because I know you look at those things, that makes perfect sense. For me, for better or for worse, I really haven't looked into the nitty gritty when it comes to, I guess, the more micro side of things. I tend to take a top down view and whatever the banks forecast, yeah, and whatever I'm reading in the, you know, from the PDFs that we read and etc, etc. That's where I guess I get my information from. And I'm looking at maybe the bigger picture. So where growth is going to come from, however it comes, if the banks are saying that it's coming from somewhere, I'm just going to trust them. But if you do want to go into, you know, the details like Ken does, then definitely be my guest. Either way, you know, as long as we arrive at the same destination as far as we're both looking at the data from the correct perspective, and that data is correct. That's what I'm kind of more concerned with. Edwin says with high USD, it's hard to sell manufactured goods. It might be. It may be Edwin, but at the end of the day, these guys are the smartest guys, you know what I mean, in the room, yeah, and we can all have, you know, we can all speculate on what will happen, you know what I mean, in the future. So one thing I've learned to do is just trust in the process and trust in the data. Are they going to be right all the time? No. Yeah, you could be right. The fact that they could and they could be wrong. But I would say for me, rather than in the way that I've always always approached it, but the way I've approached it for the last, you know, five, six years is just look at the bigger picture. And that's what works for me. Whatever the banks are forecasting for GDP growth. Yeah, I'm less concerned with the how I'm just concerned with the smart money and looking at all of these and the top and analysts have looked to all the data for me. And this is where these are numbers that they're coming up with. And I trust them. Reason wise, because if they're consistently wrong, they're not going to be in the job for too long. Yeah, they're not they're not they're not there to, you know, to be wrong all the time, they're going to have to be right. And it doesn't matter whether they're right 50 50% of the time they're right and I can make money off when they're right, then that's what matters to me. So I try not to get into, you know, the meat and potatoes of it as far as all the details of it, in terms of, you know, where growth is coming from growth is going to come from somewhere. And that's what they're forecasting. But as I said, I know Ken does look at the, you know, manufacturing PMIs, etc. services. And you can if you want to but I personally don't feel there is actually a need to. Spinks says so GDP and jobs can tell us where we're headed. Next in the cycle from your understanding and yeah and it should. Right, because that's really what what matters I mean jobs is or should be and typically has been the canary in the coal mine I guess for the economy. Because of the fact that when you're heading into a recession, what should happen and what's happened, you know, for years gone by decades gone by right is that you should have rising unemployment. And low employment. If you start to see that trend, then you would think that obviously you're going into a potential recession because businesses are not hiring more people have got, you know, people got less money, less jobs, etc. But we've had the opposite we've had, you know, data go into the negative but we've had a really good labor market. So it's a very, very tough one, very tough one, hence the reason why Wells Fargo have then turned around and said, Yes, we've had two negative quarters, but in fact, there are other things that would determine, you know, us being in an actual recession. Yeah. And this article, if you want to, I would say definitely read this article definitely definitely we haven't read the whole thing, you know, properly but it's something that you know if you're interested in the the ins and outs. It's 100% important to to to read this it's all about production income, employment and spending. Yeah. So those are the things that you that we need to understand as to where and whether we are going into a potential recession or not. Plus I just let like I said I just ride the wave of the smart money. The smart money will tell me, right. And this on Bloomberg and quotes from you know the guys on pound sterling. You know those guys will say, you know what we're heading into a recession or not. And even if we are heading into a recession remember you always have you can't look at, or you shouldn't look at one country in isolation. Remember always remember this rule, you can't look at the US as it you know it just being in a vacuum by itself. Yes, the US could head into head into a recession. But then the question has to be asked well, even if the US is heading into a recession. Are the US, the worst out of the rest of the countries in the world, right or the countries that we trade. Is it worse than the eurozone is it worse than UK. Because even though we might be heading into a potential recession it might be a shadow recession right whereas, you know you've just seen here from the ING forecasts. Yeah, that you're seeing Europe potentially head into a deeper right and the US not heading into a recession. So the point being is that it has to you have to compare always compare countries, never never ever look at them in terms of just one, you know, just one country and what and what we're doing. What was it a comparison. So you said, if you think about, yes, those data sets of both influences of inflation which says at the, what what the federal do next absolutely. Absolutely because inflation, you know, the economy. I have to have one eye on the economy, as well as one eye on the inflation. And I did ask the question. I think a few weeks ago, what is the, what is this, what are central banks prioritizing are they prioritizing, you know, interest rates, leading to a recession or you know, I guess, you know, the economy going into a recession or prioritizing inflation because they know that by hiking rates, you could send your economy into a recession sooner. But central banks are prioritizing inflation, they have to because inflation is the bigger threat, which then means that if inflation is the bigger threat, then if you know they have to hike rates if they were prioritizing the economy, then they wouldn't invest as much, because they would obviously think to themselves, well, if we keep hiking interest rates, then we're going to head into a recession recession is something that we want to avoid. I think they know, they know a lot of central bankers know that they probably can't avoid a recession or they do. It's very tough to do I know Europe, pretty much it's a, it seems like a foregone conclusion that they're going to go into a recession it just depends on how deep. Same thing with the UK. I think with the US, the US still has there is light at the end of the tunnel as they call it, maybe a, they couldn't call it a hard landing or a soft landing. So yeah, so he said, you read an article saying that for the dollar to fall, you're asked to rise because it makes up 40% of the dollar, what do you think is very simplistic. That's a very simplistic, extremely simplistic loop. You know, it's like saying in order to see the moon, you know, you have to, the sun has to go down. Do you know what I mean? It's like, well, there's a lot of, you know, physics that go behind it, right? There's a lot of things that go behind that you can't just say, you're asked to rise for the dollar to fall. Yeah, it's like, I don't know, I don't know what to say on that article. You know, what is 40% of the dollar got to do with Europe, you know, getting themselves out of a recession. If Europe starts to grow, yeah, then alright, yeah, the dollar will be revalued in terms of because money will kind of, you know, there will be traders that will think that the euro, that the euro is cheap, because, you know, you have to revalue the euro if they start to grow. Yeah, if they avoid all the problems that they have, if you know, all the energy crisis, you know, inflation problems, if they avoid all of that, then you have to revalue the euro. Yeah, that has nothing to do with what the dollar is doing. The dollar could be growing still as well. The dollar could be doing the, doing the, you know, fantastic. Yeah, and I've spoke about this before, in fact, I spoke about this before, and when it comes to revaluing a currency, because let me see if I can just draw this quickly. Let me just zoom in one second. Let me just zoom in a bit. Right. If you have a situation where a currency is doing really well, let's just say, for example, that's the US dollar, right, and then you have a country that's doing really bad in terms of, you know, central bank policy, et cetera, et cetera. Right. And let's just say this is the euro. And let's say on a price chart, you see just, you know, the world's worst, you know, or best trend, depending on which side of the market you're on. If you're a technical trader trying to bottom pick, then it's the world's worst, right, if you're going long. But the point is, is that this is going, is being priced in a great dollar and a terrible euro. Yeah. Now, if the euro starts to have a reverse of the fortune in terms of their, you know, economically and, and monetary policy wise, yeah, this cannot this downtrend will not continue to happen. It doesn't matter what the dollar does. Doesn't the dollar can continue to grow and expand and go into the boom phase doesn't matter. The euro, yeah, will have to be revalued. Yeah, it has to be revalued. Because the euro was tells was valued down here. Yeah, based off of it being terrible. The euro is not going to have the same valuation if this is obviously price. And this is time. The euro can't have the same, same valuation, price wise exchange wise, if it's turning its economic fortunes around, it has to go higher. So, you know, the statement that said the article that you said, where it says, you know, the dollar for the dollar to fall the euro has to rise because it makes up 40% of the dollar what are they talking about what are you reading. You know, I mean, it's just like, it's just, it's just saying stuff for saying stuff. We know better than that. You know, I mean we're looking at what is happening economically, and then looking at that in terms of value. It's not terrible anymore. It's not in a recession anymore. In fact, they're recovering, going into the expansion, going into the boom phase potentially doesn't matter what the dollar's doing. This has to be now revalued higher. Does everyone understand that? That's that's just how it goes. And maybe, maybe it has to be context because I think I just read Vitaly said it was an ING something like euro making up 40% of the DXY basket. I'd have to read the article to be fair. I'd have to read the article. You know, if anyone can find the article and then I can kind of put it into context but try not to just read maybe I'm not saying that you did or you have or whatever it is. But when, you know, when reading maybe headlines or reading certain things definitely get, if you can, if you understand it, is, you know, read definitely the article in its entirety to get to give it the kind of context that it needs, I guess. Because, you know, a statement like that isn't, isn't, you know, isn't helpful. You know what I mean it doesn't it doesn't say anything. In terms of, you know, what what you should do in terms of, you know, buying the dollar, selling the dollar, etc. But those are my thoughts on it, though. And those are my those are my thoughts on that on that article, or what was what was said. That's not zooming out. It's going on here. Right. Um, okay, was there was there anything else you guys wanted to go over was it was did I also everything by the way spent I know it was a bit long winded we've been on this call for about an hour. Was there anything else that you wanted to ask or is there anything else anyone anyone wants to ask about, you know, the economy, etc.