 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me here, lovable, squeezively soft host. Once again, do we go into the breach dear friends? The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Well, we're down 13 points on the S&P cash. We're to that two o'clock hour on the day when option market makers go delta neutral. We'll know a lot more. I did a run at about 130 and not much has changed. So I'm kind of sitting on my hands. I am fairly bearish. The question is, we've got light volume up even lighter. Well, we've got light volume up and just slightly less light volume down. But on the day that they go delta neutral, the whole idea is to reduce the risk on any options that are still out there that expire on a week from Friday. The idea is they want to make sure that if the market goes up or down that they don't have much exposure. Well, they didn't have much exposure. We talked about that before. In fact, they've got about the least amount of exposure that they've had in many, many, many, many years. The markets would literally have to go down to really for them to get hurt, maybe 200 points on the S&P cash. And that's a week from Friday. So these guys I think are scared. It may be that someone's told them something that's probably not true, which is maybe some kind of political issue coming to bear that would hurt the market. My view, though, is it's more economic, at least from what I can see now. Anyway, when they do this on Wednesday by about two o'clock, if the market is going to see a big move, if it was the effect of them going now delta neutral that really caused the movement on that Wednesday, whether it's up or down, you see a great deal of action in the last couple hours. So we'll watch it closely. I don't see much as of yet in what's changing. Now, 80% of the time the market is higher than today's low week from Friday. It's just got a bullish bias. There's a lot of reasons why, but mostly people buy a lot of puts. And the easiest way is to just hold the market up for a little while, tell the monthlies, which are far superior in number and dollars. And of course, the weeklies have such high decay rates that you can hardly ever make money on those. But when you actually look at the monthlies, much more of the decay is out of them. So there's a lot more risk. So they don't ever really try to keep the weeklies up. The price for the premium in there generally rules out any chance of ever making any money in the weeklies. You can, but where it's fairly low on the monthlies, it's extremely low on the weeklies. But I will tell you this, that where on a monthly basis, it's an average of 1% higher a week from Friday. When it is lower, it's a average of about 3.5% lower. So if we start moving down, if we can't start to rally, if you start looking at this market and we go through a few days and we just continue to creep down, look for a day where the thing is just going to blow out all the people on the lows. That's normally, if you're short, where you want to cover in on the short term. But, you know, we're off 13 points. I don't see a lot of buying the volumes fairly light. Again, it was light down. It was just lighter up. So it's not like we've got a dynamic distortion in the market between up and down volume. We just have light volume, both up and down. As we start off the show today, the CBOE volume on the way down early in the day. I had a lot of juice and we're already doing 4.4 billion shares. That's compared to, what was it, about 6.9 billion shares, 6.8 billion yesterday. So we are doing extremely much more volume than we saw yesterday. There isn't a lot of movement in what we're looking at in the dollar. And of course, if we want to look to the TLT, this thing's been banging on this 120 level, which has been support 122 kind of at resistance. But the question is, if we just can't continue to hang around this area, the question is, do we just gap down into the 118s? And certainly it looks like it could do that. Looking at a lot of other stocks, yeah, you're down on lighter volume, but both at long-term bottoms and long-term highs. It's not uncommon to see 3 or 4 or 5 days as the market moves lower until you start really getting some serious volume on the way back. So while I'd say intermediate and short-term highs and lows can come off with volume, and those things may run 15 or 20 days, when you're actually looking at very long-term highs and lows, it's not uncommon not to see volume for a while. I remember seeing, I think it was the S&P low at about, I'm going to say 759. That sounded about right. I think that was about right. And one of my original mentors, Tim Ward, said, you know, it's not uncommon to see volume, especially off that first leg. No one wants to buy it, and the volume just doesn't come in. And the volume then comes in later. And certainly all the way from that, I think it was about a 759 low all the way up past 1,000. One of the biggest percentage moves in a long time, there wasn't any volume. Everybody didn't believe it at all. And of course, now we're up 2,700 and change years later. But it was one of those things where that was an incredible long-term low and some of the incredible long-term highs that we saw that led to that low also had very, very light volume for a little bit of time. Not an instant. We've got a bunch of bottle rockets and Roman candles going off. It just was very, very light. You can give me call it 877-927-6648. A polar bear vortex. Oh, I'd like that. That was my Hollywood name, polar vortex. That's us. But most people don't know that. Anyway, yeah, we're kind of drifting up a little bit. That's not uncommon this time of year. And the very light volume coming in to the last day of fun buying. So we'll probably have a slight bullish bearish, bullish bias into the end of the day. But if we don't get much out of here, look out for tomorrow. We'll be back in a minute. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence as you begin your trading day? It's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. Whether we're in a bull or bear market, a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade. The Taz Profile Scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures and forex. 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Check out the new tfnn.com now and experience all the upgrades. tfnn.com, educating investors. Call now. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. We're back and we'll do a little history and then we'll get into charts. And it's all just competing. On this day in 1889, Bear began distributing aspirin in powder form to physicians to give it to the patients one gram at a time. Brand name came for A for acetyl, spur from asperia plant, and the suffix N commonly used for medications. Again, quickly the number one selling drug worldwide. Bear, of course, ended up giving up the trademark for aspirin as a result of the First World War and reparations. It continued on to be a huge drug. It was until 1996 until Bear actually bought back the company that had the rights to aspirin and bearer in the United States. They got their name back. So a long, sort of, cutest route for aspirin as one of the best pain relievers of all time. It had been around for a long time as a white willow bark, but it really, in that form, really messed with people's stomachs. But it would bring down fevers when they made the synthetic version of it. And of course, the buffered version of it happened a whole lot or actually ended up being much better. And of course, still the number one drug worldwide. On this day in 1889, what else do we have? Well, again, we're just kind of playing around here again. This is one of the asymmetrical trade weeks that you normally get, and that is it's either going to be up a little bit or down a whole lot. The chances of it being up a little bit are fairly good, probably 75%. The chances of it going down, though, are maybe three or four times what it can go up. That's at least my reading of what options are. One of the other things you can look at is whether or not they can rally it today. This is one of those rare days when we both have the end of fund buying and options expiration going delta neutral on the same day. So maybe a few cross currents out there, but man, we've been going through it for almost over two weeks. How many stocks have come up here and just died at these levels without much push? I would suspect that we'd have to have some kind of catalyst, and that catalyst has been selling the sizzle, not the steak, i.e. selling a trade deal. And trade deals never come this quick. I think they're going to come about four times quicker than traditionally. But that still means that it could be a year away. I certainly don't think we have anything in the next three months that are going to do that. 2777 on the SMP cash as we start the show and again, the volume actually was pretty good this morning. Kind of tapered off in the afternoon as it normally does. And of course, the thing to watch is probably the last 30 minutes of the day. Four and a half billion shares as we get into the first segment of the show. Let me call 877-927-6648. What else do we have here? Looking at some other things going on here. We'll keep it on it. One of the things I wanted to get to first was Micron, and we'll look at some other charts. Saw that that one was off fairly strongly. I suspect this is a offshoot into a lot of articles I was reading about how much memory that the NVIDIA AMD crowd is going to be buying in the near future. But certainly down volume is going to be more than yesterday. And what do we have today? 36.2 million shares on Micron. 29 million shares yesterday. Let's take a quick look at the SMHs. I mean, you had some good news in this sector, but I don't think it was enough. AMBA, which is type two quick AMBA, which is the company that makes the compression video chips for cameras like GoPro's and that kind of stuff. It's still finding people buying those kind of cameras. GoPro just at the price point that they're at isn't getting that kind of business. You finally got back up to this gap down, which goes back to what is that? June 6 of 2018, we came down with almost 11 million shares. It came up, touched that gap again today on 3.3 million shares. So again, while there may be stocks outperforming others, it still is one of these things where probably only 20% of these stocks that have big volume are able to break out and hold the previous highs. What else do we have? I wanted to go back to some of these other ones. Again, you can give me call it 877-927-6648. OK, XLU, which is the utilities sector, is up at previous highs and hanging here. This one looks fairly horrible, like a great deal of the market. And that is the energy off these lows. In the case, this one's the December 26 low is 30, 35% off all the way back up to the December 13 tie. That was $57.17, 26 million shares. Yesterday got into it with 12 million shares. Today you're into it with 8 million shares. Again, there's just, you can go back to the 22nd of February where you got into 15 million shares, but you're still 11 million shares short. And there just isn't a lot of juice. Ideally, if you really bullish on these things, you should wait until they pull back. If they pull back on light volume, then you get an opportunity to take another run up there. Maybe the next time it will break and get some volume on the way back up. Right now, I just do not see it. Almost all of these stocks we've been talking about for the last two weeks have come up and run out of juice. Talking about juice, Aqua America water company WTR down on the 23rd of October with 3.3 million shares got into it on December 13 with just 770,000 shares. You got the highest $623,000 shares at $36.40, and that's just enough. Now that rolled back down on very light volume today, but talk about incredibly light energy except for one day in this one, it's had it. Now, not a lot of money to be made on it, pretty small range in the stock, but one of the ones that shows that there's very little juice to go after these. VV, which is Vanguard large cap, just hit the highs did so on a little lighter energy, slightly lighter than the December 3. So again, what's really disturbing me is the energy off these December 26 lows that have been light, light, light. We're going to go to the break. But like said in the Philippines, any years ago, I shall return. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter, and if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. 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We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. And we're back. What do we have here? We've got to find this. It's buried back here. First one is Pete and San Francisco Thought on Western Digital Puts. I kind of like it. I would have liked it a lot better yesterday and the day before, which is rarely where you needed to pull the trigger on them to make something. I looked at everything real quick. You've got about three days to cover, which isn't bad in Western Digital because eventually this company is going to zero. The question is timing on when spending hard drives get replaced by SSDs. And I think you can make a case that that's really moving along, especially in the data center business and in PCs. Kind of rare to get one, except in the cheapest out there. I would love for this thing to bounce maybe to 50, 51, 52 and a half would be perfect. I don't know if you ever get it. I do like the way it came up. You had a lot of shorts. It's pretty much wrong. Most of them out of the market. But, you know, about $43 is the next target. That only gives you about five bucks out here. And you've had some high shorts in the last couple of days upwards of 25%. That would suggest that you are going to get an opportunity to see this bounce. You may not. But, I mean, the odds aren't real clear. They're probably like 60%. You get a bounce. 40% you don't. So as far as I'm concerned, the risk reward, especially for options, would be probably 50s for April. And I would say that you want those... Yeah, you want those in April. But you want that when the stock is probably 51, 51 and a half, you might get one real good day where they run the shorts and then you get an opportunity to set the hook. But, yeah, it's already looking fairly weak. You did get your clothes under the nine-day moving average today. So you could have taken it at the open. That would have been tough. But again, anywhere above the nine-day moving average with light volume, you could pull the trigger again. You can give me a call at 877-9278. 877-927-6648, he said. What else do we have going on out here? We're off 13 points kind of hovering out here, not seeing anything in the way of volume. Again, volume just slightly more on the downside today than it's been on the upside. So it's still a slight bias. And we may see that bias run into Friday now. I suspect. What else do we have going on here that we want to take a look at? We'll go back to the list of stuff. Trimble, we looked at that earlier last week. A lot of these are starting to roll over today. That's a 1.6 million share high on December 3rd. $40.35. You went to $40.80 a couple of days ago. You've got your confirmation today that it's made the high with what's going to be a solid close below it. Again, you want about three days out here for this thing to actually give it up and confirm that this thing's going to sell off hard. SXC, which is Sun Coke Energy. I don't know why that one's in there. Pump. That should be pump and dump. This one $20.91 on May 9th. And you got that with 3.1 million shares. Got into it with 1.8 million shares two days ago and instantly rolled back over. A lot of these energy stocks look very, very weak. And of course, that's what really kind of held the market up over the last few days. Without the energy segment, it is now going to be very tough for this market to rally. Another one, Portland General Electric Company, P-O-R, up at its highs. And again, when you start looking for electric companies, that tells you people are looking for places to hide their money. December 12th, $50.40, 883,000 shares. Got into it yesterday with 600,000 shares. Today, you just have 235,000 shares. Again, it's not that he's going to make money. He's going to lose less money. And fund managers thinking a market going lower that have to be 100% invested shift as much as they can to the stocks that will lose the least. Power shares preferred portfolio PGX. I had a high with almost 10 million shares on July the 6th of last year, 1445. You got into that the last couple of days. 1.8 million shares, 1.6 million shares. Today, you have about 1.8 million shares. So again, you're back up to those highs. And any close below 1445 puts another pin in the sell column. Liberty Global, LILA, L-I-L-A is a symbol on that one. Testing its previous November 8th high, $20.01, 742,000 shares tested a couple of days ago with just 279,000 shares. Yesterday, 326 today, 154,000. This is really, like I said, we're in a very good position here. Oh, is that right? Oh, no. Yep, it is right. I just wanted to check these because there have been bad quotes out today. So we're now down 15 points. And yes, there's another email here. Yes, a deliberate downside move today would probably be a fairly good indication that we will sell off all the way through options expiration. Liberty Global, L-I-L-A, again, we saw that energy wasn't that bad on the way up. Just never really amounted anything for these highs. We've been talking about some of these rail companies. And there was some news earlier in the den about the price of taking containers back and forth. Both that and the Baltic Dry Index both look rather bad. Kansas City Southern up on very, very light volume today. Again, any closes now below the nine-day moving averages tell you that these things are probably ready to give it up. HPQ, blew apart, no big deal there. HAL, Halliburton again, this whole energy sector on sale now kind of was holding the market up. Let's see what else is out here. Four Scout technologies. I think we talked about this one last Friday. Another one that was going above previous highs. In this case, it was the September 21st high at $40.96 with two million shares. Got into it with about 900,000 shares, maybe a million, but certainly testing the previous highs with a lighter volume. Now, this one did have a big boost of energy back into February 8th. And if we have a horrible market, I wouldn't be shorting this one. But I would tell you that around 30 to 50 on light volume, this may be one of the better looking stocks out there. If it gets thrown away and thrown out with the bathwater of a market pulling back. CSX, we talked about this one. It still hasn't quite made it up to its eye. And so the energy on this one, a little bit better on the way up. Certainly a little better on the high end, but not very good either way. Give me a call 877-927-6648. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. The same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First Mortgage Program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years. What should you prefer? $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment. If you'd like more information about the Tiger First Mortgage Program, you can call me at 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. It's affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets. TFNN Newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news. Plus, new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days. 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In fact, they said a couple of things over the last couple of days about how it's probably going to take them all the way to the end of the summer to roll through a lot of the inventory. So just look at that. I think if the market did pull back, you could see 131 on this one, maybe 125. And, you know, you've got about the right amount of time for them to turn around a market looks about six months forward. So any dip down here that could be found with light volume might be the buy for NVIDIA for a fall rally, but you may need to may take all the way into May to find that low in it. I'll take a quick look at AMD. So on AMD, you're down not much volume now, but certainly it looks like it's going to come back to $20.50 somewhere in that area. Of course, these folks don't do just video cards, but also processors. Things have been doing a little bit better for them. They are calling it coming back down on lighter volume to these nice gaps up back on January. But again, you know, I don't know if you win that low comes in if it's going to take a while or to come out. But $20.50 somewhere in that area is where you want to be looking at AMD. Serious moron, not a lot of stocks out here that are testing lows at the present time, but there are a few. The Sears one co and he did it with more volume than the January 2nd low energy off the top to. So I'm looking for these also is confirming signals over the next few days as they bust through those original lows to see what else we have out here. Some of the other stocks that are out here at lows are carbonite. I talked a little bit about this one yesterday and how beautiful it looked on light volume. Yesterday, you had 881,000 shares compared to the 4.4 million shares you saw on February 8th. So you got a little bounce, but again, probably not going to be enough, but it may tell you that if we get a couple of weeks of selling and this thing can hold out at 22 bucks, you might find some kind of viable low. Let's go back and check in the markets. Still off 15 points in the S&P cash off 125 in the Dow Azdex off 59. Let me update those just to make sure they're right. Yep, looks like it. Russell's off 24 and the worst performing of the bunch off one. Yeah, off one and a half percent. Okay. Anything else going on? I want to look through there. Someone asking about Intel by NTC. So we'll go to that one. As I said, I was looking for 53 on this. I got up to 5410. Let's go a little bit farther back here, which was just the gap. It pretty much did exactly what it should. It's down back on June 18th with 40. It's called 41 million shares. You got into it with 21 million shares on the fourth. And now you're rolling back over. Support's going to be somewhere in around that $52 range. Alibaba back up against the August 23rd high. That's 18650 at $79 million shares, excuse me. You got to 1804 with 15 million shares. And you just never really had a sign of strength above that. This looks like it easily come back to 177, which is just the gap this one had. But I mean, you're basically 80 million shares to 15 million shares in around numbers. Energy wasn't as bad as you would think on the way back up. But again, extremely light test of that high, which makes you think you're going to at least go back and test the last gap up in that one. I had some questions about Netflix, Netflix and Apple. We'll talk about that. Netflix never got back up to its high. There's some arguments out there today with numbers about Apple and Apple paying Netflix the drive through to be able to use their product on iPhones. Kind of interesting to see that Apple makes about $3.50 each month because them allowing you to use the app on there and buy it through their app store. It seems somewhat confiscatorial, in my opinion. Apple just kind of gone sideways here for about 15 days. I continue to think this is a setup for Apple that is distribution. And I don't know, maybe it's Buffett on the other side of that, but every time it goes a penny higher, he's there to sell. But it's hard to tell. Other questions on Amazon. Amazon continues to act poorly and badly in public. Their stock, kind of the same thing. To January 31st, you had the big spike high, the island reversal, and a gap lower. That came on 11 million shares. Got into that with 6 million shares on the fourth. Yesterday, 3.7 and on the sixth came into it. You did actually today, you did 3 million shares. So there just isn't really much juice out here. Now, this one for a big cap has maybe the biggest change in energy on the way back higher. February 8th low up was about 30% less than the energy off that January 31st high. So pretty risky hanging on to it here. We'll look at Microsoft and what else? You never really made it up to that. Well, you kind of made it up to that high on December 3rd. We were thinking that maybe push it up to the October 3rd high. Again, I mean, massive less energy on the way back up off this December 26th low. This is extremely telling for the tech side of this market. And of course, you're about 7 and about 6 million shares light off that December 3rd high on Microsoft. The big thing for me has been this energy that just never really has come back in. It was just pushed back up on nothing but a wing and a prayer. Now you're getting to the point where you're starting to look for cell signals. And Microsoft may be a little bit longer and pulled up a little longer than the rest of the market, but is extremely weak at this point. We'll be back in a minute. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. 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Yeah, I'm still looking for $26.50 as the pullback spot for this market. And maybe it's just on incredibly light volume and it takes a while, drives everybody nuts, but it certainly looks to me like we can get it. Options continue to look like the market makers are incredibly worried about any kind of or not worried about higher prices, but really kind of worried about lower prices. One of the markets where they could lose maybe the least amount of money in many years, they've set it up to where the stock, the SPY would have to get down to $235 before it would really change much in the risk reward for those folks. So, you know, am I looking that we could go down another 20 points? I think we could on the SPYs through expiration. May not get there, but I think that will continue. As we said earlier in the week, I had a couple of theories. One of them is that the many people, not all, but many people in the five highest taxed states are going to be selling a lot of stock to make up for those taxes that they told us all how much they wanted to pay, but when it actually gets to the point of actually paying higher taxes and why the rich should be paying tax more are kind of grumbling a bit. We were just saying it, we really didn't mean it. And of course we had the governor of New York out job boning today telling everybody how horrible it is and why everybody's fleeing the state. So, I don't think there's anything new in the information there other than the fact that how long it takes for these guys to sell enough stock to pay their state taxes that they used to write off. And a lot of people can make the case that that was a way of pushing taxes to other low tax paying states. But that's it. I just expect that we're going to have a little while of tax selling continuing. In the meantime, sell when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you here tomorrow. Same back channel, same back time.