 And a lot of you guys know what's coming up next. It's the word chop, right? It's the word chop that everybody hates, no matter what type of trader you are. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrader.com. Weekend update show, hope everybody is doing well. Hope you've had a great week of trading, obviously a crazy market, had a big, big run, nice rest for the tape, good, healthy rest. We'll get to that in a second. Just a quick announcement. Kyler, who does a phenomenal, phenomenal job doing all these videos and editing all these videos and all that good technology stuff. He's gonna put a link for all you guys who are curious about Pivots and always kind of wanted to try it. He's gonna put a link into the description for a discounted trial for the month to check out the webinar. Again, I've been saying this for many, many years. I don't think Pivots are for everyone. It's a very unique and advanced way of trading. There's a lot of moving parts, but for those who apply to their comfort zone and your account size and all that good stuff, it's a pretty, pretty cool way to navigate the markets. Obviously I'm a little biased by it, but if you do wanna try it, there is going to be a link in the description and you could take advantage of it. So let's talk about the tape. So marvelous run, absolutely phenomenal, phenomenal run off the bottom, off this kind of double bottom from the January, excuse me, February 24th and March the 14th lows. We had almost three week run, huge price action expansion everywhere, tech stocks just went absolutely nuts. And the question was going into this week, if you've been kind of watching the videos, the question was, well, how long is this gonna last? Is this run going to be sustainable? Because again, the last thing you want in any type of linear move is going up too far too fast or going down too aggressive too fast as well. And eventually the other side of the trade gets too complacent as well. And what happened was was something that was very much needed, right? When you look at the scoreboard towards the end of the week, you'll see the Dow, the S&P virtually flat on the day, flat on the week, the NASDAQ 100 eked out a seven tenths of a percentage gain, but the most important part was we needed that rest. It was a good, great run. The last three days of the week traded perfectly down to the 10 day moving average, reclaimed, held low volume. There was absolutely no aggression. There was absolutely no fear. Just a good, steady back test into recent price action. And that's what you need for healthy price action if the bulls wanna go further up. Now the question is, what happens next, right? We saw this phenomenal move down to the downside of the 200 day moving average. This great run to the upside. We hit the 150 day moving average kind of back tested. And the question is, what happened in the past is in the past. We can't control what happened leading up to Monday's session. We can only control going forward. And there's going to be a very, very valid argument, right? Or at least discussion of what happens next. Again, the bull case is, well, we had a two and a half week run. We back tested perfectly, into rising support, great rest, good digestion. The longer the bears are comfortable at these levels, the higher probability we're gonna reclaim that 30, excuse me, that 372 area on the queues and start really going up into the higher channels of the daily and weekly supplies, right? That's the bull case. The bear case is, well, every bear market has a violent run. You can go back to 9-11. You can go back to the mortgage crisis. All that, you've had violent runs in a bear scenario and now we're rolling over and now we're ready to go back to the lows. I think anybody who's trying to take a stand based on Friday's close is a little bit naive to think that they are 100% right. Number one, structurally, we did the right thing. The bulls are not wrong, the bears are not wrong. But the question is, what happens next? And none of us know. We could only prepare for it. And usually what happens when you have a digestion cycle, really good distribution level coming off higher levels, you're going to run into contraction channels. And that's the theme going into Monday, maybe even Tuesday. And contraction or distribution, which basically means the same thing, it's what we talk about from random times of the year of basically the bull and bear, and I've used this analogy before. It's the bull and bear in a tiny little phone booth and there's no room and they're having a pillow fight, right? They're trying to have a fight with each other in a phone booth and we all know if you're standing in a phone booth, you have no room, you have no reach, you're not doing any damage. So you're not going to get any fear on the downside until we start breaking down like literally all this. And you're not going to get that massive aggression to the upside because stocks are very, very tired, which is going to cause contraction channels instead of the expansion channels that we saw on the way up. And a lot of you guys know what's coming up next. It's the word chop, right? It's the word chop that everybody hates no matter what type of trader you are, but that's necessarily what's going to happen because now the next stage of where we are now, not where we came from, but where we are now is who gets control, right? Who gets control of the next leg down? Do the bearers get below all this rising support and start going to the lows or the bulls get a good, good structural rest, start attacking the top of the channel and we go further marching back to all time highs. That's to be determined. But once that's happening, you're going to see, for example, a stock like Amazon that usually will have like a 70, 80 point average true range, maybe go down to 30. You'll have maybe a stock like a Tesla, we'll get the Tesla in a second of an average true range of $45, $50, maybe get down to 18. So what's going to wind up happening is bull and bear are going to take jabs at each other. Nobody's going to get ahead. Nobody's going to do any damage. There's just going to be a lot of noise. And what that's going to do is cause a lot of traders to pull out their own hair. Market sucks, it's too choppy. Well, if you know the market is going to be choppy based on this possibility, well, why put yourself in a position to get quote unquote chopped, right? Let the market play out here. It's not going to be a week, two weeks, three week type of scenario. And even if it was, you have to be an adult enough to kind of let it play out. But this should play itself out Monday, maybe going into Tuesday session. Eventually the sellers will clean up the buyers and stocks will go lower or the buyers will clean up the sellers and stocks will go higher. Until that happens, why would you possibly again step on a minefield knowing it's there if you don't have to, if you could avoid it, right? Let the other people do the legwork for you. Let the market participants churn themselves into oblivion knowing we're in a contraction cycle, a distribution cycle, whatever you wanna call it. Let them do the heavy lifting for us. When the bodies are on the ground and the smoke is left, we're gonna have a clear direction by Tuesday going into Wednesday session of if this market's going higher or is this market turning around and going lower? And this is where people use the word patience and use the word discipline, but how many of us can actually implement that, right? The hardest thing in the world for a new trader to do is kind of sit on their hands. It's the hardest thing in the world to do because they feel, and this is primarily because of social media because social media is saying there's something going on at all times, but what you don't realize that something that is going on has nothing to do with your approach, has nothing to do with your process, has nothing to do about the stocks that you trade and it's only the lights camera action that social media is providing and that's cool, right? But if you are an adult and if you've been trading for seven, 10, 15, 20, 25 years, you kind of know that this is your opportunity to get a mental break, to kind of get a mental rest and all of us burn so much mental capital, so much mental equity throughout the trading year, throughout the trading years that you need to kind of pick and choose your spots to kind of deflate a little bit, right? Let it rest, let other people have the fight for you and after it's all said and done, give you a clear view of what's about to happen next and when you're going through a distribution cycle that's exactly what's gonna happen. You can have a lot of strength in the morning and then you can have some afternoon selling, you can have some afternoon selling and then you have strength in the morning and it's gonna be a whole bunch of things. Strength and weakness are gonna be represented sometimes in the same channel, strength and weakness are gonna be separated sometimes in the same group and sector and you're gonna be very, very confused. I don't understand the stock was strong in the morning, how could it sell off? Well, I don't understand the stock was so weak in the morning, it was about to crack opening range, oh, how's it behind, that's what distribution is. And if you know the danger is going into this week, again, why would you put yourself in a situation to wake up, start pounding your chest, start screaming, is it Monday yet, is it Tuesday yet, is it Wednesday yet and get completely engulfed by this chop factor that potentially could happen. It's very, very out there, it's out there and the question is, are you going to give into it and just trade because the market's open or put yourself in a position of strength, right? There's a big difference between when you hear social media as the market is going lower and in a downward cycle, cash is a position, sit on your hands, yeah, that's an excuse but when you have a trendless market going through a distribution, sitting on your hands or maybe I don't wanna use that word but kind of patiently waiting for your pitch, you're kind of patiently waiting for a little bit more clarity, that's called being a mature adult and I do believe in the next, you know, the first day or two of the week where you are going to see many more clues, we're gonna see a lot more option flow coming into the market because if you guys noticed Thursday into Friday, it was pretty much dead, right? You saw the options market very, very quiet, nobody was really taking any big bets one way or another as we saw earlier in the week, as we saw earlier in the last couple of weeks, very, very aggressive out of the money call buying, we didn't see that and people are, you know, have been through the ringer so many times they get, you can't bet when there is no obvious direction, you can't bet when there's no obvious aggression and I think a lot of people are taking the stance just like myself, just kind of seeing what, you know, what there's out there, is there gonna be things to do on Monday? Yeah, I think so, yeah, Tesla and again, it's a funny story, a year ago, I turned to my wife, I go, you know what, I think it's time, I think I want a Tesla and she goes, she turns to me, she goes, I like them, she goes, but everyone has one, I don't want one, everyone has one and she's right, everyone has one, that's the whole point, everyone has one and when you look at the global deliveries, right, I think they were 310,000 that came out over the weekend, it's a phenomenal job, everybody's a freaking Tesla, my neighbor to the left of me has three of them, my neighbor in front of me has one and my neighbor's to the right of me, there's another three in the next four houses, so yes, everyone has one and that's a really, really great job by Tesla, not only turning into a car company, which is also a tech company, which is also a solar company, but now it's clearly a cold company and everybody loves their products just like an Apple and it'll be very, very curious to see what happens with the stock on Monday, did they blow away their estimates? No, they didn't blow them away, but it's super duper impressive and I'm very, very curious to see if they finally start attacking the top of the ranges here. If you guys remember, we did see pretty heavy betting earlier in the week for the 1150s, I guess they were anticipating betting into these, into these data release points, so it will be very interesting to see here, obviously I watch Tesla every single day, but I'm curious to see if this top of the channel gets confirmed and gets built upon based on these numbers. When you look at other tech stocks, they're all stuck in the range, right? They really are, they're all stuck. I'm not really interested in names right now like an Apple, because again, there's no clear direction. It held the 10, just like Mirrod, just like Mirrod, the Q's, if you look at Amazon after a huge, huge run, again, they could go one way or another, again, we're looking for clues again. If Amazon is gonna wake up and we saw some pretty big May, right, May 3500 calls, if it's gonna start going to 3500, right, we're gonna need to see it take out this whole channel and reclaim back the 200-day moving average. So there's a lot of names like that. There's definitely some names that look pretty good going into this week. Look at a name like Docu, and again, it might confirm, it might not. Again, it's only gonna be as strong as the tech stocks, but if you know it's basing out pretty well, if the market continues its next leg up, I'm definitely interested in a name like this. Look at Visa, right? Visa had a monster, monster run, closed above the last two channels, backtested like everything else, had a good, healthy rest, and looks like now it wants to resume. Look at a name like Zen, right? Not a name I usually would typically look at, but again, you're not gonna see many good-looking charts that look like this. Look at the top of this channel here, right? It never went down as the market was kind of healthy backtesting. So it's very, very important to kind of look out for names like this. This looks pretty good as well. And on the downside, you know, look at a name like FedEx that completely engulfed, literally two weeks worth of buying on one candle. FedEx starts confirming to the downside, well, there's a lot of room down as well. So, you know, you have to be prepared going into this week, but you also do have to acknowledge that going into Monday's session is not like going into last Monday's session when the market was still very, very aggressive and channels were still expanding. You know, this is a different market. Every single day is only as good as the next day starting pitching. That's where momentum is. And I do believe if I'm reading the data right, again, I could be wrong and I always am, but the point is if I am reading the data right based on where we are on the cues, number one, what's gonna need to happen for further aggression to occur back to the upside, we're gonna have to reclaim the five-day moving average. And that's kind of a big deal. If we can't reclaim the five-day moving average and for all you guys who are, you know, short-term traders, that's the most important, at least for me, that's the most important sentiment of who has control when you're underneath the five-day moving average that's not necessarily a sell bias, but there's weakness when you're above the five-day because you can see here, the whole run, can you see this orange line, right? The whole run came above the five-day. Everybody see it? Everything here, it's all straddling the five-day as soon as we lost the five-day, right? What happened? We started seeing weakness. So it's a kind of a little bit of a cheat sheet, especially for all you new folks, above the five-day is trending higher, below the five-day it's a short-term sentiment of trending lower. So if the bulls need to or want to start reclaiming back to higher levels, we're gonna need to reclaim back the five-day moving average on a close. So the message going into this week is pretty much every single week, be an adult. Again, I don't care if you're trading for 25 minutes, 25 months, or 25 years, act like a professional. Your money is just as green as everybody else's. You've worked as hard as for your money as anybody else's. And the great part about this is businesses, everybody has a form. Everybody has a right to make a bet. But if you are making a bet, make it intelligently based on technical analysis, based on market sentiment. Feel, gut, anticipation, these are all easy ways to get out of this business before you reach your max potential. Guys, have a great, great Sunday. God bless. I wish you all the best health and happiness. Oh, God's help, I'll see you all tomorrow. Have a great, great trading day.