 Hei chyda, a hynny frywch ar Lundan 740. Llywodraeth 14 ddiweddol ystod y ddweud, ond y ddweud yn gyfwybod yn y cysylltu'r ysgol, pan mae'n gynghwyl yn cynnig gyntaf o'r EU. Mae'n gweithio ar ddweud yn y cysylltu'r ysgol, mae'n gweithio'n gweithio ar y ddweud. Mae'n gweithio ar y dyfodol i'r grannog, a wnaeth yn cyfwybod yn y cyfwyd ysgol. Mae'n cyfwyd yn gyfwybod yn gyfwybod yn cyfwybod, mae'r byw sydd yn bwysig lleiwg. mae'n dod rhan gf weld lливad 같아 yn gwybod. Ac mae'n rhan o cas, maelus yn rhan o ddau, ac mae'n holl gwrdd i'r holl gwrdd, ac mae'n holl gwrdd i chi, mae'n holl o'r holl o roi. Mae'n holl o'r holl o'r holl o'r holl a ddau, wef o'r holl i chi fewn hwn o'r holl o'r holl o'r holl o rholl o rholl o'r holl o rholl o'r holl o rholl o rholl o rholl o rholl o rholl o rholl. Mae'r cwmhysgol worth i'r hwyben yng Nghymru yn ystod o'i gwybod gennyn nhw'n gwybod yn gwybod gyda'r gweithio'r hwn. Mae'r gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod yn gwybod, dwi'n cael ei ddweud o'r gweithio. Fy hollaf, dyfodol gynllun ac yn gwybod, a ddweud o wneud 1350-1357 o'ch cyrraed. Rwy'n cymaint i â gwaith y gyrsdau llwydau oherwydd yng Nghymru. Mae'r rhaid i chi'n ddweud ymlaen yma, y gwahanol lleol yma dyma, o'r hollwch ar y cwmddian yma. Mae'n hollwch ar y 11 o'r hollwch ar y 11 o 5 o'r hollwch ar 2016. Rydyn ni i ni i ni'n gofiannig oherwydd yma. Mae'n rhaid i fynd i dda i'n gwahanol yma yn y ddechrau. Felly mae'n gweithio'r iawn i chi i ni, oherwydd ond y traenline. Cymru'r llunio hyn yn gwaith yng Nghymru, mae gennym ni'n gwneud o'r cwpl o'r teimlo yma yn y nifer 18 yma yn April, a gwneud o'r cyflawn gyda'r cyffredinol. Cyn gallwn ni'n fawr? Cyn gallwn ni'n gwneud yr ysgol, rwy'n cael ei gweithio'n ymddangos ei fawr sy'n cyfrannu? Mae'n fawr, rydyn ni'n mynd i'n sgwr, mae rwy'n gallu'n cyfrannu, mae'n gynghwyl fath o'r rhai cyflyn yn ystod y cyflwyno'n cyflwyno'n gwybod. Rwy'n credu bod nhw'n gwneud i'r llweddau ac yn cyflwyno'n gweithio y llwyddo. Mae'n rhaid o hyn i'n gwneud o'r cyflwyno'n cyflwyno. Mae'n rhaid o'r cyflwyno'n cyflwyno'n gwybod gwybod yw'r llwyddo o'r cyflwyno'n gweithio'n gwybod y hwyl o'r clyweddau i'r cyflwyno i'r llwyddo i'r angen. Yn yn ogymru o'r cyflwyno'n gwybod, Those levels will come back on to that in a bit. Pats absolutely reasons why just a yes or no in the chat would be Super over to the headlines from overnight, whereas this time yesterday or just this time yesterday was really getting moving. Oil prices had pushed higher. Felly, we had the Gulf of a Man tanker attacks. Two of them were under attack and oil pushed higher, quick push to well the higher the day. We then eventually did push on a tiny bit more. You can just see here if I just bring oil into picture, we had a decent move higher just after seven o'clock, yesterday on the report of this. If I just get around it where it was seven o'clock, up to those highs was over 4%. Since then we have just traded sideways. The US have accused Iran, Iran have called those accusations unfounded. So, what could this mean for the oil price at the moment? I guess that the market is telling you it's not too o'i wneud. Ac ydych wedi'i'n gwybod hoslyd. Yn dwych chi'n gwybod, ymlaen nhw'n gweithio'r cátilist i'r rhai gwybod, ac yn hynny'n gweithio, gan ymlaen nhw ymlaen nhw? Rydych chi'n gweithio, yn amlwg, dyna'r rai gwybod tricol. Roedd yna'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio, a'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. maen nhw'n gwneud y meddwl amser o'r ddych yn ôl, ac mae'r ddau sy'n gwneud,on ni i pod ヽ ddych yn cael lŵt. Felly mae hynny'n gwestiydd o'r ddaw yn gallu digwyddor ar y llwy yn y tiystiol yn y mewn eich hun, maen nhw'n gwestiydd o rhan o'r ddax yn ddaw. Gwaidden o'r sump iddyn nhw'n ddaw rai o'r ddax. Felly mae'n gofyn, fe ddod ein hoffi nid yw, ac nid oedd yn gallu rhoi pressur. Cymru i'r cyffredinol wedi gondol beth ydych chi'n ddweud ar gyfer y meddwl, dwi'n ddweud mewn gwahodd am draws. Felly mae'n ddweud yw'r cynnwys yma. Mae'n ddweud hynny'n ddweud, ac mae, ond, nid yn dweud eich bod ni'n gwneud yn ymddangos. Felly, rydyn ni'n ddweud i'w llwyddo i'ch bwysig yma ar 8 o'r oed yn ddweud. Mae'r ysgrifennu yn ei ffordd yma, mae'r parw tynnu cael ei gynnyddu. ac rydw i'r bwysig yn ystod yw. Plom yn cyfathorfa'r Yngell. Felly mae'n ffordd hwn i'r ddweud i'w ein Oh Lord ac i'r destryu fawr am gweithio'r cyst-downu. Maen nhw'n gwybod yw y bwysig o'r perff moléw o hwn o'r hwn ar y steadfyn yng Nghymru, o 22.82 yn rhoi y 반 pan oherwydd o bobl o背ffol a'r ystod yn 200 miliwn. Wrth gwybodaeth o gyntaf o gymryd yng Nghymru, dw i'n meddwl ychydig oherwydd gair hyn i guna'r holl gwerth dechrau, a helpu eich cwmau mwy fath ymgyrch gael hwnnw hir ydyniaeth a phobl mewn i'w ddweud y fath o fath yma yw'n cael ei agedigol hwnnw. Palau yma a'r rheswedd maen nhw'n rhywbethau'r hynny yn colli gyfan, a rannu yma yng nghydfyrdd gyndio, oedd i'w argyflwr o'r chwyn nag oedd na maknw, mae'r gweithgwyr o'r ar tancoffa y bydd y gweithgwyr yn credu'r rheswedd iddion, ac mae phobl yn cael iawn oedry'r hyfforddiol ar y bros. o'r dda, yr yw'n gweld â bru yn gwahod i'r bwysig. Gweld â'n hysg, tinofydd â'n hysg, a cynnyddio beth beth ddim yn cyd-deitio'r rhai ar y tyn mulhau a o'u pryd yn gwneud a rhai o'r gweithio. Felly eich gwasanaeth ar y gyfynnwys. Mae'r ddoron pa'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio a'r hyn yw'r llwysiau yw, mae'r wath oes ynaint, mae'r sylfaen, yn gweithio'r gweithio'r llwysiau. had previously threatened to curtail oil transport in the the strait of the moose. Roughly 30% of the world's seaborne flow of crude oil and products pass through that strait each year, so nearly a third of oil of oil all oil going through there, so a closure of that would lead to major disruption of global oil suppliers, and evidently we haven't seen that yet in the market, but you would have a very big push to the upside. I mean just looking at at oil price here, you can see how far we have come down if that was to be the case, and this again would be an escalation over a period of days and weeks, but you're looking back towards the highs of the year if this was to be the case. I saw an interesting tweet yes on the 12th on the morning, and it makes you think if you're a conspiracy theorist you're you know you're thinking well someone had a bit of inside knowledge here and wanted to just to get along in, so this was the tweet around the evening on the 12th it says 145 there but of course that's American time. Crude oil has lost more than two and a half per cent during the day in six out of the last 15 sessions falling to a multi-month low six months after the other times this happened the last 30 years oil returned plus 47 minus three plus 47 plus seven plus 33 percent and plus 44 percent. If you like your stats what a place to have got along on oil if you like your conspiracy theories well someone might have just had a bit of inside knowledge and looking at the area we're trading now in oil this is now a daily continuation certainly and I'm just going to move the recent price action in this square if you're looking at at price coming down there was certainly a zone if you like looking it back at the the November 2018 lows coming up to the February lows as well just a really nice area I know if we take our mind back to the beginning of February I remember Pears was doing a briefing talking about the inverted head and shoulders here around this point you can see shoulder head shoulder and then you've got that breakthrough so certainly a very key level if you look in here on the future sort of going from 52 31 to the low there it's not going to get it perfectly but let's just call it just let's call it 51 as a as a decent area of supply we've come back into that level now a failed test to push low again just purely technically it looks pretty good here if we were to see an escalation oil should push higher but just to where I think will be will be pretty key I think it would be out the woods if you like and maybe drift high if we can get back above this key level from the 8th of March we had a recent test of trying to do that just above 55 dollars on the futures that didn't want to go and that's looking around 55 16 if we can get back above there certainly medium term balls will will be favouring a push higher one to keep a watchful eye on anyway so back to well back to the the headlines from overnight and there's a there's a really good I think I've still got it on my email here report if you like from John Kemp who works at Reuters as a market analyst I'll send this out to our guys but anyone watching feel free to to to tweet me your your email or whatever and I can send this over or at least a link to it where it's just sort of goes over the the risks of an uncontrolled escalation and it's a it's a fairly lengthy report as you can see but something to read over the weekend prepare you yourselves for the next week I think could certainly be you know a bit of light reading on Sunday Father's Day here to to take to take into account what could potentially happen over the coming days or so it goes on to this report anyway just talking about the current state of high tension hawkish elements in both the US administration in and of the Iran not just now but recently but this may exploit an incident to push respective leaders to to escalate here and the vulnerability of the tankers of the Strait of Muses is precisely the sort of incident that could spark an unplanned and uncontrolled escalation 30% of all oil going through there or seaborn oil I should say going through there every year this is a large amount this could be a massive issue at the moment the market's telling me or telling us that it's not too bothered if you're talking about something so big and if we go back to oil just quickly here on the chart and I tell you that it is up just after seven here we go and it's just up 1.3% I'm sorry but the market's telling you it's not interested right now worth being of course aware of what could happen and the escalation that comes with that just as we see the end just breaking above that resistance from last night you tea notes above the high and gold trying to push above a key level from before but just being worth worth being aware just how important this area is Hormuz is is not necessarily the most important or because the volume of oil that flows through but because of an ultra tense flashpoint that could spark a much broader conflict between both sides and they are there while insisting they do not want this and I don't necessarily think it's going to happen it would lead to oil price pushing on and on so any comments that come out throughout the day today worth keeping an eye on it does almost seem that this has just been pushed to the side this morning I would have expected to be honest a bit more in the way of commentary overnight I'd expect him to come in and perhaps see oil a bit higher following comments to be honest it doesn't look like this is much more of a story right now any escalation any further accusations I'll be looking for oil longs and that might just be what saves the s&p here is your safe havens are pushing higher admittedly helped by perhaps a weaker dollar although the dollar index right now is pretty much flat for the day elsewhere trade comments um well yeah trade comments overnight obviously trump yet again speaking to to reporters he was saying yesterday how he's still waiting for a response from g it's an interesting one one we've trade having a look over we'll just bring the s&p up you can see yes they're helped by what oil as we mentioned but it's choppy if we have a look at the the week where we open I'm going to draw that horizontal line there we had a brief push below we're now back above another up week but range bound choppy no real developments in trade and I think that's the way to look at it I think he's going to step up the hawkish ante especially if she doesn't confirm they're going to meet at the g20 at the back end of this month and that in turn would lead to stocks just coming down a touch while I've said repeatedly I think there will be a deal done and stocks will break the all time highs again the timing of that could be tricky and just going back to what trump had said sorry I didn't have the charts up there just having a look there at the s&p and the choppiness of that the the gap fill happened Wednesday Thursday but we're now back above so going back to those comments from from Trump yesterday and Larry Kudlow as well was speaking while warning Beijing they may face consequences if it refuses the invitation he was saying Trump has indicated his strong desire for a meeting we know this but the meeting is not yet a range formally so I would just start from that and see how it plays out he was saying this in Washington gold again just pushing higher so if you're if you're in this position here gold you know just pushing on above 1355 1358 trading at the moment ask this possible they won't meet could low replied I don't even want to comment on it I'm just saying my president has indicated a strong desire to sit he's also indicated that the meeting doesn't come to bear there may be consequences but he would prefer the meeting so the 28th and 29th Japan that is when the meeting is is going to be whether that happens or not we'll move markets so over the weekend keeping an ear out for any developments on that any developments for for oil as well will be what potentially drives these markets going into next week at the moment well last month as as those trade talks broke down Trump raised tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese imports and started the process to slap another 300 billion which will cover virtually all remaining goods coming into the US from the world's second largest economy so we'll keep an eye we'll keep an eye on that we'll have a quick look over the calendar if I just bring this into picture here for next week or at least the the rough plan for now this is currently what we're expecting so no you'll notice on here nothing to do with with Trump as of yet so I'll keep an eye throughout the day today to update this but it's a central bank heavy weekend week I should say you've got Wednesday the the Fed Thursday or Wednesday overnight you've got the Bank of Japan and then you have the Bank of England as well on there I was going to say yeah there you can see Bank of England also on Thursday so speaker wise in the build-up to that is going to be limited so worth obviously just planning ahead on the days you really want to be involved likelihood is looking at Monday just how quiet that's going to be when you've got the the Fed on Wednesday Tuesday likely to be the same you've got a bit of European data out in the morning but likelihood is Monday and Tuesday are going to be quiet as we build up into the Fed in the evening seven o'clock UK time well of course go through this in a lot more detail on Monday but it remains to be seen if there is any developments overnight over the weekend regarding what the Fed might do currently it's looking like they are going to hold rates as they are yesterday anyway it was about 24% chance they were going to cut according to the Fed watch tool so it could be a pretty good one to trade that that evening one that evening release 7 p.m UK time and then the the press conference from Jerome Powell half an hour later moving on to brexit um if I just bring in the picture here give me one second so this was how we finished the first round of the the ballot here Boris Johnson 114 votes above the 105 threshold you would need to be in the last two uh he's going to be there barring a major surprise we're just having some Chinese data coming out here retail sales better than expected industrial production worse than expected so mixed data there uh from from china not going to move the markets too much uh unless they are both better or worse worth keeping an eye on uh stocks how they move here and and the Aussie as well which came under a bit of pressure just uh to divert here the Aussie dollar uh came under pressure as we are now looking at another rate cut the New Zealand dollar also under pressure this morning following some poor data back to brexit uh just having a look at those that did make the cut Boris Hunt Michael Gove Dominic Raab Javid Hancock although reports overnight that he is going to quit uh and Rory Stewart fair play to him for getting through nice to see a bit of fresh air uh into politics though the three that didn't quite make it lidsum who was at one point the third favourites even yesterday was near the favourites unbelievably uh and Harper and McVay not making uh the cut just having a quick look at the the plan I did a a tweet on this yesterday uh so we do well this is quite a good one from BBC politics again I can send this out so each candidate needs uh eight MP backers we've done that first round where the 17 votes was the cutoff point seven of those got through Hancock may go we go into the second round which is on Tuesday uh where they now need 33 uh we will then have another vote Wednesday Thursday and on all on Thursday if needed to get us down to the two in terms of the the debates we do have one on Sunday on channel four uh in the evening however this was yesterday going off yesterday not all candidates are confirmed the BBC to also hold a live event 8 p.m. on Tuesday this is going to be two hours after the second ballot uh vote results are released so worth keeping an eye on that into the evening um further ballots needed as I mentioned on Wednesday and Thursday until we are down to the two and then the voting begins on the 22nd four weeks later we will know who the next prime minister of the united kingdom is. BBC, ITV and Sky News are all expected to host debates as well um uh so worth keeping an eye on developments for that they haven't been confirmed as of yet but you've got to imagine they're gonna gonna want to to get on um as well actually just having to look at that industrial production number uh it was actually a fair bit worse uh so worth keeping an eye on on stock tier just if you were to to get a follow through coming in at 5% uh down 0.4 uh of the expected figures and again if you like conspiracy theories you also know uh that Chinese data perhaps might be meddled with uh a touch so moving uh moving on let's have a quick look at uh just the those votes and and how things have changed if we have a quick scroll down Boris you know before uh the vote and I'm going to say it again and again because they're so useful to follow this this guide I thought so you can see they released before how the candidates stand in the build-up obviously from public MP backing uh there's about 70% of MPs that are publicly backed and you can see all of this here is up no nothing is down it's very very uh accurate of course it's going to go up as more MPs uh have to vote on these days so definitely worth keeping an eye on this website and on their Twitter in the build-up for Tuesday the pound reaction that we saw yesterday I'm just going to bring this in it's probably actually exactly unbelievably where we were give or take two ticks uh from where we were at one o'clock following the the release of the vote uh so Boris Johnson more than expected now you could have argued if that was to be the case uh a week ago uh the pound would be on the the lows of the session uh however in the build-up to uh this vote yesterday and Monday and Tuesday he came out and was a lot less hawkish on the idea of a no deal so this is obviously positive for the pound uh so therefore uh that downsize with downside was limited uh Rory Stewart getting through I think was the reason perhaps we pushed a bit higher can he gather any further momentum but in reality to stop Boris winning this is going to be very very tricky I watched a bit of of question time yesterday which I find so hard because they just shout at each other and it's not very pleasant watching uh but there um there you know that you had people digging out Boris you had people sticking up for him uh he he's almost not having to do a single bit of work here uh to to get this to get this job whether he can actually get anything through and and and whatnot I'm not too sure but I stand by what I said yesterday I think he's the only conservative MP that could win the next general election so perhaps it's time for people to put the party ahead of of their political uh beliefs uh we we should we should uh we shall see uh looking at the calendar for the remainder of the day if I'll just bring this into picture here we've had that you uh Chinese days throughout overall mix we did have some better but the industrial production was worse uh just on the lower bound of the range so not enough perhaps to spark a massive move lower going into this morning we have some Italian CPI we've just had Tommaso back from from Italy so I'm hopefully I'll be able to get a bit of inside trading knowledge on on that one 130 the US retail sales always a choppy release short term volatility if it's really bad might just help um those ideas that another rate uh or that a rate cut is going to happen uh we again shall see on on that uh 215 industrial production business inventories at free along with Michigan sentiment the preliminary figure there 98 expected from the previous uh 100 speaker wise ECB's Lautenslager at 11 and Bank of England's Carney at 155 worth keeping an eye on Carney as of course we do have the uh central bank meeting uh yesterday uh yesterday on uh Thursday I should say here just looking at the let's see if I can just zoom in on this I just put this together roughly yesterday um if you just give me a second if you can see this I think you can it's going to work out how I can remove the thing on the left there we go uh so this is roughly put together uh of course Wednesday and Thursday are going to be an interesting 24 hours regarding central banks um recent talk the federal reserve have obviously been the most dovish the bank of japan likely to keep things the same but a lot of talk about them having to lower interest rates uh so any talk on that or uh there's been rumours of the the Japanese version of the TLTRO the European version of that they're the Japanese version of that or paying banks to lend uh has also been rumoured any talk or development on that would see a decent move uh lower for for the yen in a currency that has been strengthening so much recently due to uh save haven flows and trade war uh stagnation uh so it could be an interesting one the bank of england if anything have been more hawkish out of out of the free uh bank of england npc members saying that the the next move may well have to be a rate rise and that the market isn't pricing that in again expected to hold uh at 0.75 but the vote split will be interesting the bloat vote split will be interesting there on the Thursday and you can see here just about the fed expectations at the moment according to the fed watch tool 24% chance of a cut 76% 76% chance of no change and of course 0% chance of a height for me that's a really good opportunity should we then get a cut and your likelihood see a fast money move for weakness of the dollar and that could well get gold quite um quite high above those key levels and look at gold here you can see just the extent of that move uh today and really in june really pushing on here worth keeping a closer eye on that going into the remainder of the session as usual any questions please do let me know um i hope you will have a great trading day in an even better weekend and for anyone listening in canada congratulations to the toronto raptors for for winning the nba championships um it's going to be a relatively quiet morning here i would say but certainly where we finish the week will be interesting going into a very key one next week with a central bank meetings as well but hope you have a good trading day and a good week ahead