 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we are joined here by Harish Damodaran, a senior journalist with Indian Express. Recently he has written extensively on a cattle economy of India's rural areas. Welcome Harish. Thanks. This is the third year of Modi's government and cows, cow slaughter and beef ban seems to be the top most issues on the agenda of the government. In lot of states that have been ruled by BJP, beef, there has been beef ban that is being implemented. And also there is this issue of Gaurakshaks who are targeting Muslims, cattle traders and Dalits for past three years. And now recently, last week, the environmental ministry has come out with a law that says that in the cattle markets, the cattle bazaars, they cannot really sell or buy cattle that are meant for slaughter. So what does this mean for cattle economy? See in the West, you have two kinds of farmers. There are beef cattle farmers and there are dairy cattle farmers. There are different breeds for beef cattle, like you have the Angus breed there. When it comes to dairy cattle, you have Holstein, you have Jersi, you have Brown Swiss. In India, there is nothing called a beef cattle farmer and a regular dairy cattle farmer. The farmer, he may keep a buffalo or a cattle and after about say 5-6 lactations when the yields come down and when it becomes unviable for him or her to maintain it, he sells it to the market. He sells it to the butcher or anybody who comes and buys in the market. And in many cases, he may not go himself into the market. He may be selling it to a primary aggregator, you know, who may put together say about 10-12 animals and then take it to the market. And this is how it has always been in India, you know, all through, you know, and you always have a problem of surplus cattle and surplus buffaloes. Because if you look at a typical life cycle of a cow or a buffalo, you know, no farmer rears for more than about say 8 years. You know, like in the case of a cow for example, it may first, it may be ready for say insemination in about say 16 months time. That is when the calf grows to a young heifer, you know, and so it may yield its first calf. It may do when the animal is say about 2-1.5 years old. Subsequently, they may be whatever about every after about say 12 months, they may be a fresh carving. So, after about 5-6 carvings, you know, the yields come down, I mean, very sharply. So, there is an established, well established system, you know, in the Indian economy. And whatever the so-called Muslim butcher is actually the Hindu farmer's best friend, you know, because he is taking care of these surplus animals. You look at it in an aggregate way, we have about 19 crore cattle and we have about 11 crore buffaloes. So, the total population is say about 30 crore. And if you assume that about 8 years is what or you even take 10 years maximum, you know, which a farmer will keep. And our total bovine population has been more or less at about 30 crore in the last say 30 years. It means, so if you divide 30 crore by 10, it means that every year there are about 3 crore animals which are going out of the system. So, you can assume that out of this 3 crore, maybe say, some of it may be natural death or whatever. But minimum you are having about something like 2.5 crore, 25 million animals that are getting slaughtered, right? Both buffaloes and cattle. And there is a system that takes place. Now, obviously all these animals are being sold in a market. Now, let us assume, so what the government now is saying, no, we have not banned slaughter, it can happen. It is just that we are just saying, please don't sell your animals in the market. So, this assumes that the farmer, suppose I am a farmer say in Rajkot, okay, there is no slaughterhouse nearby. It assumes that the farmer knows where is a slaughterhouse, you know, he can find out. That is not the job of a farmer. For the farmer, he is interested in milking his animal, maintaining his animal. And when it seizes to have any productive use, he disposes it off. And there is somebody who comes and collects from the farmer. The farmer is not going to search for a slaughterhouse and these kind of things. So, there are established networks. There are cattle markets which deal with this. I mean, every state, like for example, Tamil Nadu has something like I think 210 slaughter, whatever, cattle markets. And I think Rajasthan has some 250. So, in all, I think they may be easily about say about 5000 markets. So, are you going to say that in these markets, these markets will deal only with dairy cattle? With productive animals, healthy productive animals, that is not the case. It never works like that. Now, look at it from the point of view of say the buyer. Now, the buyer may be an agent for a slaughterhouse. He may typically want say about say, let us assume 20 animals. Now, suppose he were to go to every farmer's house and collect those animals. It's not possible. So, as you said, farmer usually sells those cattle that are unproductive and uneconomical to him. But let us say because of these laws and government push for beef, ban and things like that, the farmer is unable to sell his unproductive cattle. What kind of burden would it add on him? Or let us say if he just leaves them on the roads, what kind of burden would it add on the economy? See, the farmer has a very clear hierarchy when it comes. First of all, he has very limited feed and fodder resources. And he allocates them very rationally. The most important for him, there is a clear hierarchy. He will first feed those animals which are in milk, which are generating income. This would be the first priority. The second priority would be animals which are pregnant and may carve in say four months from now. So, that would be the second priority. Third priority would be young calves or heifers, which may carve say in a year from now. It may be a year, if it is a very young female calf, it may be two years. So, that would be the third priority. The fourth priority, so these old animals would be, the ones which are yielding less will be his last priority. So, it will cost anywhere between say 60-70 rupees for a cow and 100 rupees plus for a buffalo. Just the cost of feeding, but then there is also something called opportunity cost. The labor or the water which could have been given to a productive animal is getting diverted towards this thing. So, you cannot see it purely in terms of the money he is spending from the pocket. You also have to look at opportunity cost. All of us, any economic agent is also driven by opportunity cost. So, you look at it from his point of view, same thing water. If it is a buffalo, they have to be, so it is not just fodder and feed. There is also water, labor. It takes time to clean the animal and all these kind of things. So, I think what is going to happen. I am envisaging two scenarios. One possibility is, I mean after these the government actions is, he may continue rearing cows or buffaloes, but what he will do is, once they are useless, he will just leave them loose. See, if it is a dog or a cat, even if you leave them 50 kilometers away, they will come back because they have a strong smell, sense of smell. They are sensory, this thing is very strong. Whereas a cow or a buffalo, even if you put it about 10 kilometers away, they are not going to come back. So, they will just wander and they will ultimately, they will all come to the cities. We are talking in a scenario where 3 crore animals, surplus animals every year. So, they go on adding up. So, these 3 crore animals, so this is the possibility that they would come into the cities. They would come into the roads. This is the scenario where I am saying no possibility of this thing. So, the farmer in this case, he may not be able to make his 25,000 rupees, 15,000 rupees, whatever the one time. But for him, he looks at it not only in terms of income, but also the fact that he won't be spending the recurring expenditure. The recurring expenditure is what will kill him. So, he will say, fine, this 25,000 rupees, you forget it. So, he will tell Amul or anybody, he will tell them, look, you increase the price of my milk by 50 paisa. So, if you look at it from that point of view, say a cow is giving, say, 4,000 litres per year. So, if he is losing, say, 15,000 rupees. So, which means you can increase the cost of milk by 4 rupees. So, ultimately we will have to pay it. So, this is one scenario where he foregoes the terminal value. I mean, if you look at it, you look at any asset at the end of it, there is a terminal value which you can realize. He doesn't realize that he says, fine, I forget it. But he is not going to incur the recurring expenditure, that 100 to 150 rupees per day, he will not do it. So, therefore, this is one option he can do, he can just free the animals. But that may be difficult because I think the government is also planning to introduce UID, this thing. So, in that case, I will know who the owner of that particular cow or buffalo is. So, I can trace it back to that owner. So, tomorrow the police will land up, if I am a farmer, he will land up in my house and then he will say that, look, you let loose that animal. But over a period of time, what will happen is, it will make the farmer disinterested. Like right now, I may be a serious dairy farmer. I may be having, say, about 30 animals. And I am doing it, I am investing all my energies. But what I will do is, over a period of time, I will tell you, I forget it. So, basically what I will do is, I will wait for those animals to go away. I will whittle down my herd over a period of time. So, that 30 cows may become, say, 20 cows, then 10 cows. And finally, I will exit this business because when it becomes impossible to also dispose of the animals. I mean, I am not able to sell my animals, you forget it. I am not able to let loose my animals. I cannot free my animals. So, if both are not possible, then I foresee a scenario where in about, say, 4-5 years of time. You know, India's milk production will come down because it is very simple. The farmers will stop raring. So, the whole narrative is constructed around cow, as if it is very economically important. It provides us milk, it is religiously important, as if it is very central to the agrarian economy. But is it so? Because I have heard from people that it is actually buffaloes that contribute more to milk than the cows. Especially not the desi cows. No. See, I will look at it this way. If we want to increase milk production in the long run, it has to come from cows. The buffaloes are not going to give you more milk beyond a point. See, an average buffalo, first of all, it takes about 4 years for its first carving. And it may give annually maximum 2,000 litres per year, you know, 2,000 litres of milk. Whereas, a cross-bred cow, it is ready for, I mean, it will carve within 2 years, you know. And plus, on an average, it will give you 4,000 to 5,000 litres. So, I am very clear that the future has to be cows. Buffaloes need more water. It is not possible to rare buffaloes everywhere. Like in a state like Maharashtra, apart from say an area like Sangli or Kolhapur, you cannot have buffaloes everywhere. Buffaloes are niche and they will remain like in, say, western UP. You will have buffaloes. But I see that in the future, including if you want commercial daring. Commercial daring is not possible with buffaloes. Commercial daring is possible only with cows and that too the cross breeds. You know, I do not see a future for desi cows beyond a point. Thank you, Harish. Thank you for being so informative and for having us with you today. Thank you.