 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the power trading hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Well, I'm here, what, five trading hours ago. I posited that we were in within probably by 11 o'clock this morning, a major high. Was unsure whether or not it would be the earnings last night or the earnings this morning that would really turn the market. Didn't think maybe this much. I was hoping for a little less, a little kind of smaller gap down. But yeah, I think we've got a fairly decent opportunity to say that we have a top. Thanks for the kind words to James, Richard, Rick and Sally for reminding me of my call yesterday on the show. And yeah, a lot of them asking, do I think this is the ABC down in a bigger bear market. I think you can say that now. As we discussed, I think on Monday, I said this kind of reminded me of the highs and, you know, the first couple of days of 2000, we had just a miserable thumping. And then, of course, we kind of rallied back into the March timeframe. I think this one was a little bit faster into the February timeframe. And this leg will really tell us if I'm dreaming or this is the bear market. Generally, you get a fairly decent opportunity to sell and people never do the first time. And then they always think that the market's going to come back. But I think there's enough evidence to suggest that we have a few things that are wrong in the market. Also, I only saw one, I didn't spend a lot of time watching. I just turned it on to watch the ticker. But I only saw one person actually probably even dance around the real problem with Facebook. We'll talk about that today. But it's got bigger problems that they're not talking about on CNBC because, of course, they want those folks to come on the show one day. So they can't actually tell the truth or if they do, they have to do it obliquely. The only way you get the truth on that is going to be if they know the company's going out of business and no one's going to be back. But certainly we had, I'm going to say, a pretty much a bloodbath in after hours last night. Continue through this morning. We're going to go through those earnings and what's going on. What do we have here? As I said yesterday, the volume was decreasing going into the fifth day. Yesterday, that's not good for going up and trying to challenge highs again. Short sellers had hopped on Netflix. We talked about this a little bit yesterday too. And that was that for the last five years, if you shorted a stock heavily, if the market got down on it, there was a pretty much 80% chance that within a day or two, you were going to get a fairly huge pop in that, like Netflix. That doesn't happen anymore. I mean, there are a lot of stocks that had been popped on the last few days. None of them bouncing and few of them holding up fairly well. It isn't an entire market that's going lower, although I think that's probably true overall. Some will be stronger than others. And of course, the world's kind of, at least the investment world kind of focused on Facebook, Metamucil. I don't give them a lot of respect, mostly because they should all be in jail. And it's not hyperbole. Literally, Facebook stole and hacked more data than anybody has ever hacked any data illegally through using the iOS in Apple's phone. Any prosecutions? No. Did they steal data? Yes. Were they entitled to it? No. Did they sign a contract that said that they wouldn't do that? Yes. But we were talking yesterday. I said, you know, what we really don't know is how big that whole iOS thing, when Apple last fall changed their operating system to cut the misinformation book out of going in there and looting your location and some other stuff. But basically, Facebook was making a great deal of money by looting your position and then firing ads at you, following you around, which is pretty highly illegal. Now, I think everybody kind of knows about that. Even if they've kind of forgot it, they kind of vaguely remember it last fall. The bigger problem is that Facebook lied about what their earnings were going to be. I suspect they're going to be tons and tons of lawsuits for people. And if you're going to miss by $10 billion, you knew that halfway through the quarter. You didn't have to wait till yesterday. I think a lot of the lawsuits are going to be on that. They already have a ton of lawsuits, and I mean thousands of lawsuits against Facebook for defamation of character. They just lied out now on a variety of folks about, they said, you were telling a lie when you said this and we're excommunicating you off our platform. The problem is that Facebook was lying. The people were actually telling the truth. And now all those lawsuits are starting to percolate up through some of the bigger ones with Facebook and the New York Times have gotten through the initial part. They're getting into the discovery part now. And there's going to be a lot. I mean, we already know a multitude of sins that these guys are involved in. Another thing that happened to that most people probably didn't spend much time on yesterday. Just before the bell closed, another ruling came out from the EU. There's a big thing called the GDRP. Let me find it here. Where is it at? GDRP. There it is. General Data Protection Regulation. I talked about this years ago. It's gone into effect. Facebook lost a appeal. And I think it was, I forget now, I looked for the article. I couldn't find it right before the show to remind myself. But it was either a three judge or a six judge panel and it was unanimous. And that is that Facebook does have to abide by the laws in the EU for privacy protection. Now, what would that mean if this goes, if Facebook tries to basically appeal this up to the Supreme Court of the EU? I forget what it's called. But basically the same thing. I'm guessing though that they are probably not going to take it with a unanimous verdict in the lower court. What does this mean? This means all the data that Facebook has ever gathered is going to have to be flushed. They would have to start all over square one again, at least for data for everybody in the EU. We'll be back in a minute. Let's take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges at which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find the path of least resistance. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. And as we get kind of late in the day on a Thursday, it is problematic to see that we get any kind of recovery today. We do have Amazon after the bell that could bounce the market. I'd love for the market to have a little bounce so I could short it and add some more positions. But yeah, I mean, everybody kind of a little bit bearish on it. Generally, that's not a good time to start hopping on. But yeah, maybe we get a little bounce. I don't think it's before the close today. Could get a little bit tomorrow. I would love 4550 to short this market and go all in. But yeah, I'll probably not be that lucky. It'll probably just fall apart now. As I said before, kind of setting up a move that could go all the way to 4,000, maybe by May. But I think it's going to be a couple of small steps, maybe a couple of small steps forward and maybe just one really big bad one behind as we get into higher interest rates. And the reality that a lot of these companies are not going to be growing much this year. Some will do well. I don't think Apple or Microsoft are really the weak sisters here. But we do have a great deal of the other fang stocks. As I said, NFLX, you know, you got kind of a bounce off the bottom. You didn't really go that far. I was thinking maybe 475 you could get to the market, decided to head lower and take Netflix with it. But one of the most hated stocks even today, the only good thing you can say is there wasn't a lot of volume so far. We're doing about half the volume we did yesterday and about half the volume we did before. You know, could this thing still get a bounce? It's got a lot of people piling on to the short side, but I don't see a lot going on here. Yes, yes, yes. We've got a comment from the from the emails out here about my opening slide out here and he said he's sending out an SOS. Okay, we got that 877-927-6648. First question is TLT and you bounced off the 140 low. There isn't much volume today. I'm just surprised that we haven't hit that 139 yet. I'd say there's an 85% chance that we at least hit the 139. My guess is it's going to go down there and blow through it. And that probably starts, I don't know, in the next few days, both the Fed and the EU are saying they were going to discontinue bond purchases. This morning it was the EU saying that March was the end for them. So you've got 30, 45 days or so left for those guys. But now I'm just kind of waiting for this thing to blow through the lows and hovering around like this for a while doesn't mean that I think you're probably going to get a fairly good bounce. I think you're going to blow right through it, whatever the event is that takes it through. But if the Fed is truly not going to buy bonds anymore, that probably makes a pretty good effort to think that when it does blow through, it's going to continue on down to about 132. So don't think that there's a lot else going on here other than this thing just hanging on. It has been supported by the Fed for a little while, but that's probably getting fairly close to not happening anymore. Okay, give me just a second. Okay, answered that question. Okay, we got that. Oh, we got that. Okay, yep, TLT is going to fall apart when, don't know, but certainly we're getting the last couple of days of the Fed buying bonds and probably not a good sign. 877-927-6648. Let's do a little history. And oh, we got to go to the next one on this day in 1959. November 3, 7, 9 or 4, 9 or crashes. It's 1959. Rising American stars, Buddy Holly, Richie Valens, and the big bopper, uh, Richardson are killed when they're chartered. Beechcraft Bonanza plan, plane crashes in Iowa a few minutes after takeoff from Mason City on a flight headed for Moorhead, Minnesota. Investigators blame the crash on bad weather and pilot error. I can tell you it was all pilot error. Holly and his band, the crickets had just scored a number one hit with that'll be the day. And of course, great, great song written about it. But no, you had a 21-year-old pilot, didn't have much time, barely got his commercial license, flying at night and flew into bad weather, did not have a instrument rating. And yeah, they even had him back there in 1959. But the plane wasn't equipped well for that. He flew into a cloud, lost spatial recognition and crashed. And there's a lot of reasons why you don't fly into what they call instrument meteorological conditions, IMC. Why so many people die, including the basketball player in the helicopter last year. If you think it's hard flying an airplane in the clouds, just try to fly a helicopter in the clouds. By the way, you can't cover, you can't hover unless you can see the ground. And a lot of reasons, but yeah, just avoid flying into bad weather in small planes, avoid a couple other things. And you could probably, 90% of the accidents would go away. But not much happened in there. We know the reasons and how to cure it, just very many, not very many people do. 877-927-6648, look for your phone calls. We had the Treasury bond. We're going to go through the earnings overnight and this morning. Aligned technologies, of course, they make braces. Not a whole lot changing. They did open up lower. This is one that looks a little better. Back up against resistance for a gap down. Let's zoom in for the play-by-play. Gap down on the 18th with 1.4 million shares. Yesterday you were up on 1.6 million shares, so it didn't look that bad. Even today you went lower, but all you had was 1.2 million shares. Interesting business. Certainly doesn't have a lot of the problems that other businesses have, i.e. inflation, supply chains. They just need testers. But kind of a nice recovery on this one. But any at today, we'll be back in a minute. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFN and host live during their shows. Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day. Subscribe to the Tiger's Den risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee and become part of the TFNN trading community. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. As we go through the rest, as we already talked about Amazon a little bit, big gap down, just worried. Again, we don't know whether or not the new CEO of Amazon has done clearing out the skeletons out of the closet, as most CEOs do when they come in after a long history of an upswing in a stock. Generally there's a lot of crimes and near crimes that have come along the way and they have to take care of those once the CEO leaves. But I think Bezos will be okay. They're getting ready to pull down an entire bridge to let his $500 million yacht out and onto the ocean. So it's just about ready to be ready to go to the Bahamas for the spring time. But I think he'll be able to sleep just fine going forward. Anyway, gap down. A lot of volume. I think a lot of people are just looking at Facebook and others and thinking that. Generally, most downside is all priced in. So maybe you get a little bounce in the morning off that or in the futures after the close. But I don't think we're going to get anything but a sell-off into the close today. And we continue to sell off down 83, 84 points on the S&P cash. Maybe we get a little bounce right into the end, but I don't think that there's much to be had. And then we get into Friday. God help us if Amazon doesn't do well. Because we'll probably have the equal of that. Had one guy asked me earlier in the morning about any of these stocks being buys, and I'll tell you that if you get a big gap down, my one rule is to give it three days. And that is I don't care how much, you know, if the stock is going to go right back up to the top, if you have a big gap down on volume and you're starting to think that maybe you maybe get a 50% return in the next couple of days ago, I just have always given it a three-day rule. Every time I've decided to play before the three days, I found out that generally I get my hands slapped. So I'm going to tell you on all of these, I am not high on them bouncing at least in the next three days. APPS, a little gap down here. It just looks like it wants to go back and retest a 35-55 low. This is digital turbine. Of course, I guess the worry of a lot of people in the markets is that you could get a move in something like the ART fund. Is it just ARK, right? Is that it? Yeah. ARKK, right? There we go. And it's gap down. The possibility does exist now that we are headed down, that why she may have avoided one downturn, probably not going to be able to avoid or live through a second one. But we shall see. She's got a lot of money coming in, but my guess is that a lot of people are going to turn tail and run. And if a route happens on her fund, a lot of stocks are probably going to get tossed out with proverbial bathwater on the way back down again. But I don't see a lot in here that says that there isn't going to be real problems with that going forward. You get on the wrong side of it, and it is problematic. You do get a market that if you have never seen one, it's called an ant mill. You should go to YouTube and just type in ant mill and see how these things work. Bristol Myers Squibb kind of opened okay, a little down, not much in the way of volume. I was more thinking that the biotechs would be weak than I kind of thought that you'd be down a little bit on Facebook, but not as much on that and a little bit more on the biotechs. They actually didn't do as badly as I thought. Other ones out here. We looked at Facebook. That's just ugly. There's going to be a lot of people that were long on margin on it. Give them a three days to get out. No one's going to throw them a lifeline. When you're in trouble on margin, the only thing that the market's going to do is toss you anvils while you're drowning. Flex. A nice pop up. One of the few out here. This is kind of an interesting doji pattern on this one, but it did well. A decent volume up here. For a bad day, anything that can bounce on today, you want to keep a longer term eye on. Kula can soften down just a little bit, not much. McKesson, a gap higher. Volume is not quite as good as you would like, but holding the highs, it doesn't look like in the energy sector. There's a lot of reasons to sell anything. MTTR. Somehow this got in after hours linked to Facebook. I do not know. It has absolutely nothing to do with Facebook, but took a dive almost at the same time. There may be more news that I missed, but I did see that yesterday. It looks like it's going to go down to 750. Netgear, especially with 5G coming on, this one's probably going to have a fairly good year. Did go back, test the lows. Did a fairly decent retracement in this one. If we do find some kind of low in the market that I think viable, I'm going to keep an eye on Netgear, but certainly Modem's 5G, 6G, internal Wi-Fi stuff going to be big. Qualcomm is another one of these that got kind of hit hard in the after hours by what would you call it, pin action. If you're a bowler out there, you understand it. Really not doing that bad. Earnings were good, but just the bloodbath that was last night got caught up in it. Earnings were good. Does that mean it can go higher? If the market does, it can, but if the market goes lower, probably. For me, I don't see the risk reward here. I'd love to see it at about 150. There's a double gap there. We haven't tested that gap, and we test double-gap so many times that it'd be worth it. Quarvo, another one in that smartphone business, did gap down volumes. Okay, not massive, but problematic. Royal Caribbean, not much going on there. Regeneron, as I said, not much going on in these biotechs that I thought would be weaker. The semis were actually weaker than I thought. The biotechs haven't done much so far, although we have a lot more tomorrow morning. Roku, I finally figured out how these guys were making money and understand why they are not now anymore. Every time I grab one of the remotes, it adds a channel. I'm trying to turn it off, do anything. No, I don't want to add Max Showtime or this or that or the other. But every time, I'm going to say every three times I grab the remote, it tries to add some kind of new channel on it. Since I've got two of them, and it does it on both, I'm pretty much sure that this is not a bug, but something that had been planned. But anyway, down to the previous lows. As I said early on, I never understood the profit model on this company. It seemed rather dubious. I still don't understand how this thing really is going to make money long term. And could it break the 139.47 low? If the market heads lower as I suspect it will the next day, it couldn't break that tomorrow. We'll be back in a minute. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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The big problem with these 3D companies that do inside modeling is everybody in the world does it. They all buy the parts from the same ones. And the software, as far as I can tell, is all the same. Maybe someone will come out with something better, but right now I don't see a lot. When we look at Snap, certainly Snap ended up getting tarred with the same brush, tarred and feather with the same brush. Social media stocks just kind of have to think of them as having an STD right now and probably a bad one. I guess there aren't good ones, but maybe an extra bad one out here. But yeah, you've got two gaps down now in Snap. Are you probably going to get a third? The answer is yes. And so I wouldn't be touching these until, well, the STD thing, right? All of these social media companies are going to have problems with Facebook. Yeah, somebody talking about the NFTs. I did have to laugh in the COVID special for South Park. They were all in there talking about NFTs. And last night's South Park, man, did they get on Matt Damon for advertising all the cyber coin stuff. But no, it's still funny. But yeah, future fortune favors the brave, but not in the short term here for any kind of cyber cash that a bad, bad play. But I do enjoy getting a good laugh out of South Park on it. Anyway, yeah, you got two big gaps in Snap. Look for the third before you look for any kind of low. In fact, I'd want that to happen before I would go long Facebook either. Santa Fe, not much happening out here today on that one. Spotify, pretty big gap down. Again, their problem is not Joe Rogan, although a lot of people want to blame it on it. It's a horrible business. As I've said for years, this is a business where you pay out 70 or 80% of everything to the people that made the music. And of that 80%, 75% of it goes to the record label. If you're somebody that plays something on it, if you get 50 bucks out of Spotify a week and you're a big time player, that's a lot of money. There just isn't any money to be made in music for actually playing it or recording it. It's all in concert money these days. It's no longer in this. But now, I don't think that has a lot to do with it. It has to do with just how bad the business is. Spotify correctly changed their business plan just like ExSim Satellite did. It's going to have some hiccups. But Spotify was in a bad place to begin with. I don't know how their stock held up that way so long. But now, I don't think it's any better. But it's not a podcast issue. It is the 90% of their business that is basically a loser showing up. Because you're paying 70% or 80% everything out just to play other people's stuff. That's why they wanted to get into their own content. And they wanted a tent pole much like ExSim Satellite had with what's his name, the New York Shock Jock. So they went down that road because it allowed Cirrus ExSim to exist for a long time. But you know what? My guess is long term it's going to be good for them. They need to do more of that. And probably the worst part of it is them acting all spineless on this. They should just tell the people to f off, in my opinion. They're not going to please anybody and the people are going to quit or probably still going to quit. But guess what? You've got somebody attracting 100 million people a month. That's a business I want to be in. And that's what Joe Rogan does. He gets 100 million people a month in the door. And of course, if you took all the hours of all the cable stations and the cable news stations, you don't get anywhere close. I don't think you get to 20 million on the top rated cable news station and probably more like 5 million on some of the lower ones. So what do you want to do? They're following exactly the model that ExSim did. But the question is can they get enough out there? But you look at ExSim, all it is is podcasts now. That was all about playing music. I don't think this is any different. I just never understood. They came out in one of the most bizarre ways for the IPO. And this is maybe the most confusing public since Caesars. Caesars came out, had all these shares and only allowed for like two years, 5% of the shares to actually trade. And then they slowly started letting the shares out once everybody thought that Caesars wasn't going belly up. Just because you like the company doesn't mean you have to like the stock. It can be a long term winner. But it's going to take a long term, a long time to turn a boat around. On T-Mobile, I kind of disliked it because when someone called in last week, mostly because I don't like companies spending a lot of money. They're actually saying they're going to spend a little less money. And there were a ton of people thinking it was going to blow up that were short. This was one that is highly short. I still don't think long term it's going to do much. But you got a nice gap out here in a big short squeeze going on in it. TWST, twist bioscience, nothing going on in that. Twitter, again, any of these companies have got the social disease, the STD. And you're back into the previous low, 3205. Twitter has got another company that's just got a ton. My guess is it's going back to 20 or 18. I don't know if it breaks at this time or not. But long term, yeah, by May, 18 bucks on Twitter. It's got a lot of problems that aren't going to get any better. Another company that's going to be embroiled in lawsuits for defaming hundreds, if not thousands of people. And some of these guys that are got the cases right now, they're going through court, they're winning and proving a not an absence of malice, but actual malice. All that was a good movie though. We'll be back in a minute and wrap up the show. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. 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And we are back, PayPal holding. Yeah, a little bit more. You went through this gap and you did with a lot of volume. So you're basically at support 124 right now. I'm not so much inside baseball on this one. Another one that someone brought up that I wasn't a lot involved in with Sophie, although I see people in the den talking about it all the time. My understanding, and maybe I'm wrong on this, was they were gonna, they were believing they were gonna get a bill through to wipe out all student debt. And these guys were buying it all up on pennies of the dollar. And therefore we're gonna make a bunch of money. But I may have that story wrong. Maybe someone will call in tomorrow on that and really give me the story on it. But that's what I kind of vaguely remember from the beginning, that they were buying a lot of underappreciated stuff, thinking that there was gonna be more free money coming from current administration. And the chances on that are gonna be slim and none. And of course, raising interest rates just mean more people are probably going to fold on a lot of those dubious student loans, personal loans, ridiculous used car loans, and third and fourth mortgages on a house. Maybe I'm wrong on this and I hope someone calls in tomorrow or emailed me on Sophie. But I think that really was dependent on an economy getting better, not worse. And I don't know if you could actually say worse. I'm just gonna say worse in the scheme of things of higher interest rates that are coming this year, whatever they're going to be, however much there is, and free money from the government to pay off those loans. That was my big regularly looking for real problems and generally it doesn't get any better before the end of the day on a Thursday. So when you can, not when you have to, we will turn like a bad rag tomorrow. Same thing.