 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning and happy Saturday everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccessotrader.com weekend update show. If you are brand new to the channel, all we ask is take a second, click a like, share, comment, be proactive, right? Be proactive. We'd love to hear from you your experiences, whether it's with a brand new trading career or a mid-level trading career. If you were doing it for a long, long time, I think it would always help everybody. So for all you guys who are brand new guys, welcome aboard. So I joked around yesterday on social media. I was looking at charts last night, I always start looking at preliminary ideas for the next day, especially for the next week. And I literally joked around, I go, if you watched any of the videos for the last pretty much two weeks, it's the same thing. Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, AMD, they're all strong, right? They're all strong. They're all breaking out. The market's going crazy. Tessa sucks. I mean, I don't even use the word Tessa sucks because I'm obviously, I'm a gentleman picking my teeth on my fork, right? But the point is, it was the same message. And if you look at the price action this week of the market, I always joked around I said, what's the point of you watching the weekend video? I'm going to be basically saying the same thing. It's literally the same stocks taking out the previous day's range and going higher. NVIDIA, AMD, right? AMD, Meta, Microsoft, we talked about on Thursday's video. Amazon woke up, right? So it's kind of counterproductive for me to sit there for the next 12, 13 minutes and say exactly the same thing. Instead, I want to be a little bit different and kind of give you guys a little bit of a glimpse of potentially looking, I don't want to use the word outside the box, potentially looking for ideas in those strong names or in that weak name. We'll talk about Tesla in a second that potentially could give you an alternative move in the opposite direction. And what do I mean by that, right? So if you saw what was going on in the Nasdaq this week, I mean, every single semiconductor stock has been going nuts. Avago, we talked about on the weekend on Thursday's video. SMCI had guidance. This stock is only up 112 points in the day. Nothing to see here. AMD continues to pull in in the video. We'll talk about in the video in a second. And then you have your land researchers of the world. You have the amats of the world. You have your clacks of the world. And you're saying to yourself, wow, this is just an incredible move. And it absolutely is. And it really kind of amplifies the statement that I made a week ago, a week and a half ago, that fund managers, they're chasing profits. They're chasing moves because so many of them missed that 54% rally on the Nasdaq 100. And if you look at all the data, whether it's inflation, jobs, whatever the case may be grouped in, it all spells the same thing. The market is strong as hell. Now, the question is, what happens next week? We don't know, right? We have to assume unless something really dramatic happens, the market continues. This is an election year. You have Trump back running. You have Biden hanging on each day. So look, I don't know who the president of the United States is going to be in 2024. I'm not a Trump guy. I'm not a Biden guy. I'm not a really big political type of guy. But I know it's not going to be Biden. It's just not. There's no way you could be the most aggressive Democrat in the world. There's no possible way you can see this guy for another four years. Having said that, right? Having said that, the market loves to be strong in an election year, and that's kind of where we are. So I don't know what's going to happen next week. I still see a lot of value, for example, in the chip space. Like, look at Micron, right? Look at Micron. Micron is very, very close, very close to breaking out. You know, this is, again, if you're going with the theme, right? If you're going with the theme of strong semiconductors, well, a name like Micron, you know, you should definitely be watching. A name, for example, like Apple, right? We talked about Apple getting above the 50 day. Well, Apple is finally above the 50 day. And this is where this is with news coming in of potential scheduling delay for their new product, right? Super bullish. You have Amazon very, very close to attacking the January highs, right? You know, very, very bullish. You have AMAT, again, another semiconductor, big, big three day move. But hey, even if it gets one or two days consolidation and gets above the upper Bollinger band, things can really, really stretch as well. Here's kind of where I take off the euphoric glasses, right? I take off the euphoric glasses and look at things from the point of, well, reality, right? The one thing we do know as traders, there's something called buyers getting tired and sellers getting tired. So for example, let's start off with Tesla. And this is kind of where I want to give you guys a little bit, an alternative view is at least the way I'm looking at stocks. So if you guys remember, you know, we've been pretty much on the short side of Tesla every day, whether it's overnight, we came in last Monday for that six, seven point gap down. And every single day, we're either getting a natural pivot on this thing with some sort of rejection on this thing. But you guys, you know, if you've been following this broadcast, as soon as Tesla lost the 50 day moving average and confirmed the 200 day, I kept on saying is, you know, just rip out your buy button. Again, it won't go straight down, but rip out your buy button. And we should get a move to around 207, right? So Tesla's been the only one that's not participating. And this whole rally is down about 14 percent to start the year. And we talked about that 207 level was the first target. Well, that's where it got, right? If you look at Friday's low 207 fifties, there's two things happening in Tesla right now that is interesting going into next week. I don't remember the last time. And for you guys who trade Tesla, I trade Tesla religiously. I don't remember the last time that Tesla broke out or broke down without significant, significant repeat buying either to the upside or to the downside in the options market. And for all you guys who have paid attention, especially for you guys who trade Tesla on a day to day basis, you kind of know that this whole move to the downside was very, very small and deep out of the money puts. Yeah. I mean, on Friday, did we see, you know, when the stock was at 215, did we see two tens? That's not what I'm talking about. Usually when the stock is breaking down like like Tesla has, usually you would see like 20, 30 point out of the money puts, especially breaking down big levels. And the second thing that I noticed on the way down here was a news blip, right? The news blip was, and you guys kind of, if you've been watching the video or you kind of just know the general news, you kind of know that Elon, you know, basically said, Hey, if I don't have 25% control of Tesla stock, well, what's the point? Right? What's the point of me going all in mentally? I could work on AI projects outside of Tesla and I got the stock down. However, what we did notice, and this is a very, very big key for the whole week, there has been a significant and absolute significant reload buyer into the stock, literally every dollar. It feels like like it feels like somebody is accumulating shares and you could turn around and say, maybe it's Elon Musk, right? Maybe he wants to get to down to that 25, get up to that 25% threshold. It would make sense, you know, not that it's, you know, not that it's morally the right thing to do by making that statement and having the stock come down because he knew after he made that statement, the stock was going to come down, right? So maybe it's him accumulating it in stock, maybe it's brothers accumulating stock. I don't think first I was like, maybe it's Cathie Wood. I don't think so. Maybe it was one of those. I know Cathie Wood started buying at 232 with literally when she started buying, I was shorting the 200 day moving average. So the stock has come in 25 points in the last week and a half or so. So it's been it's been a great, great trader. But what we did notice was continuation of lack of option flow for deep out of the money puts, we saw this reload buyer. And the most important part is when I see a stock that I trade every single day is stalling out levels that it should be kind of really starting to speed up, I start paying attention. And Friday, you know, Friday was a perfect example. I took a short on Tesla on the opening range lows. And I was literally fighting with this thing. It went down like 70, 80 cents. It would not crack. It would not crack. It would not crack. And you see this buyer coming in. And as it was approaching this 207 level, right, as it was approaching this 207 level, because you could see 207 fifties was the low. And that was kind of the first measure potential. I started seeing that buyer just wouldn't give up, especially he was sitting there very aggressively around 208 fifties, reloading, reloading, reloading. So at that point, I was like, you know what? Let me take, you know, let me take my profit here. Let me get out of the trade and let's see what happens next. And as we saw what happens next is Tesla actually had a reversal into the close. Obviously, this is its biggest winning day of the week. It was up 30 cents for the week. The stock is down, you know, a considerable amount. So overall is a very, very successful scenario interval on Tesla. But what I want to watch this week is any potential gap down, potential reversal back to the upside. Now, the key with Tesla is don't anticipate that reversal. OK, don't, because as long as this market becomes euphoric, continues to be euphoric, this is a name that you want to see confirmation. So what I want to see this week is any gap down, I want to see the call buyers come in, if they start coming in, we're going to know it's a sign. If this guy or this guy girl, whatever the case may be, continues to continue to buy stock at the bottom, we're going to know it's only a matter of time that the reversal will come. But for me personally, and again, it doesn't have to come Monday, it doesn't have to come Tuesday, it doesn't have to come at all. We could be having this conversation on Tuesday and Wednesday, talking about why look at the stock, what a move down to 194. And we continuously continue to short these bottom channels. And again, that's still on the table. I refuse to just sit there and wait for reversal. If there is an opportunity for a previous day's low, a previous channel to get violated, I want to be in that trade. But what I'm saying is to be at least aware after a 25 point move down to the downside, first target achieved, what we want to start seeing, collecting all this data that we just talked about, it potentially taking out a previous day's highs and reclaiming the five day. If it does reclaim the five day and takes out a previous channel, then I do believe we can have a two, three day worth of potential bounce. Right. I don't want to say rally because, again, until the stock reclaims back the 250 day, we don't want to deem this as a rally. But for the point of reference, right? From the point of reference, I am definitely aware there is a reload buyer. I'm definitely aware there was no aggressive out of the money puts being bought. I am still aware that the stock can go lower and I will continue to short bottom channels if they could confirm. But I have my one eye open. I do know what's up and I will be watching for an aggressive, you know, an aggressive reversal at some point this week. Again, something just something alternative to watch this week. Let's look to the other side of the equation, right? NVIDIA, we joked around for a number of days and saying, well, put it at 600 and start from there, right? Just put it at 600 and start from there. That was the joke. That was a joke, you know, 30 points ago. That was like two days ago. Well, the stock is five points away from 600. Here's where I think instead of, you know, how people always try to try to pick a top. If you're going to pick a top on something, OK, the highest probability where you can pick a top, or at least I don't use that word. I don't want to use that word and confuse new traders. At least if you're in an area that potentially could have a reversal, it's going to be at a whole number. OK, let me give you guys a reference point. So if you guys recall, here was the first time, you know, here is the first time NVIDIA hit 500, right? It was in November. And what happened? The first run up, right? It was kind of the similar run up. The stock went from 392 all the way to 500. What happened at 500, right? Buyers got tired. They got gas out a little bit. And what happened for the next couple of days is they kept on testing that 500, kept on testing the 500. Eventually they gave up and the stock went from 500 all the way back down to 450, right? It's the same thing. You guys see that, right? You had this run up, you had a hundred point run up. It got rejected at 500. Because again, if you're an institution, you're long from 390s, 400, 420s, you're not going to be making sales at 391.13. You're going to be making sales at whole numbers to get rid of your position. And that's where you're going to wind up seeing the biggest amount of reload sellers. So it couldn't get through 500 on 1120. It couldn't get through 500 and 11 through 21. And finally buyers gave up and it gave a $50 reversal, right? Fast forward kind of where we are, right? Fast forward where we are. Here we are again. Another hundred point rise, right guys? Another hundred point rise. It finally got about 500. It went on a hundred point rise. We are approaching another potential area that institutional money flow can start unloading shares at $600 a share. Again, if you bought the breakout and a lot of you guys did, I did. I've traded in the video throughout this whole move, not every single day. Friday was the last time I traded in the video. We caught a great, great bounce off the bottom range, four or five points very, very quickly. But the point is, the stock is doing exactly the same mirror image that it did all the way back in November. I'm not saying it can go through 600. I'm not saying it doesn't even blink at 600. You can get the 610, 620. But be conscious of that area. And that's the whole point where we talked about Tesla. And that's kind of how we talk. Now we're talking about in the video. Be conscious of the 600, right? Be conscious of the data that we, at least, we saw going back to NVIDIA in November. So if NVIDIA stalls out or gets rejected at 600, right? Just the same way you got rejected and stalled out at a 500. You might want to take a short there, right? You might want to take a short and you might want to just use the high of the day as you're out. So for example, if the stock stops at 600, right? And starts going all, it starts going down. Hey, you know, maybe shorted, you know, maybe shorted below, shorted above 599 and you use 600 now as your stop. And if it goes through 600, you could flip it and actually go long. So that's an area at least you can get the biggest bang for your buck. Now, let's take a second scenario in that situation, right? Let's say NVIDIA, the first time goes through 600, right? Goes through 600. I don't think it will. But who knows? I don't know anything. I'm an idiot. But let's just say, let's just say for the for the for the sakes of the argument, it does goes through 600. Let's just say it puts at a high of 601, 602 and immediately get slammed down on the 600. Then what you can do is what we call a remount, right? Remount off that 600 area. You can shorter off that 600 area and use the high of day as your stop. 601, 602, hypothetically, whatever the case may be. So this is a couple of situations. One, a potential reversal from the downside of Tesla to a potential reversal of the upside of NVIDIA. Again, these are something we want to be prepared for. I don't know if it's going to happen. We could be having this conversation on Monday and be like, I can't believe in the video how strong it is. The damn thing went all the way up to 630 today. It's possible. We saw 700 calls coming in. You know, we saw literally 700 calls coming in for February. So it's all possible. It's all on the table. How I would like to personally play this thing on Monday is the same way we've been playing it this whole run up on weakness. If this thing does, for some reason, gap down on Monday, right, and gives us, you know, gives us an entry into the rising 60 minutes support, then yeah, I would like to get long because there's a high probability shorts will get trapped once again, go right the green in a day and then test that 600 level. And hopefully then, you know, we could have a, you know, 11, 12, $13 potential runner. So sometimes in trading, you're just looking at a chart, for example, you know, like an MU and say, wow, look at MU. It looks great, right? Like look at MU, it looks great. And if it takes out the top of the channel, right, this is basic bare bones, technical analysis. What we just talked about on Tesla, what we just talked about as Nvidia is an alternative way to spot value, potential value that most retail or most traders just are not thinking that way. Because again, they have the rose color glasses on Nvidia. And again, can the stock go to 650 this week? Absolutely. Absolutely. But at least our job, like I say on every single video, be prepared. Don't be naive. Don't think things can happen. Things can happen. They do happen. And they will happen when you when you are when your ego and your bovado is is providing guidance instead of common sense. So the most important part this week, guys, again, continue, you know, continue putting in the work. If you're only trading a couple of years, it's not clicking. It's again, guys, it's not supposed to click. OK, every trader is different, like I've been saying for years. Some traders, they get it the first year or so. Some people don't get it for seven or eight years. It's just the reality. Every kid, especially in school, right, was a different caliber of students. Some kids, you turn around and like, how the hell did little Johnny understand that, you know, the trigonometry equation, right? And then Schmuck like me, like, huh, what the hell is that? So everybody develops different. So don't get down on yourself. This is the hardest business in the world for a reason. Time will make you whole, right? Time will make you a better trader. Continue to put in the work. Continue to grind. Continue to put in that extra manpower that most traders won't. And they just they're lying to themselves and they're saying that doing everything possible in their in their path to make things work. Continue to work, continue to grind, guys, continue to have faith. And with God's help, I will see you all on Monday. Take care, everybody. Have a great, great weekend.