 Welcome to Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing September 16th with me, Patrick Manley. In the US, Tuesday we'll see the release of August Industrial Production, with US manufacturers likely continuing to be affected by tariffs and the US dollar strength. Also on Tuesday we get September NAHB Housing Market Index, while rates and the labour market should remain supportive of an increase in housing prices. Wednesday we'll see the release of the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision and particularly its refreshed guidance, which will be the main event for the week, with the rates market pricing another 25 basis point cut. The two-day FOMC meeting concludes with the fresh policy statement and summary of economic projections, followed by the Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The primary risks surrounding the communication will likely arise in the press conference itself. It's somewhat unclear which version of the chair will show up and good cases can be made for both versions. Recent developments counsel less risk to power repeating guidance that this is a mid-cycle policy adjustment versus a race to the bottom. From a technical perspective, the dollar index traded lower again this week, testing down below the 98th level, anticipating that we will see continuation of this move early in the week down to test the monthly S1 at the 9750 error. Likely we see some type of correction in this zone with the potential to move up and retest the emerging trend channel resistance now up just below the 99 level. However, a breach here would likely take us back through the highs at the moment, which are currently at 9935, and up to test the yearly R1 and monthly R1 in the 9950 to psychological 100 level. However, as the trend channel contains any correction, I am currently targeting a move down to test the major trend line support at the 9650 level. While we're talking about the dollar, let's check in with gold. Gold has traded down to test the anticipated initial trend line support at the 1480 area. Whilst this area contains the downside correction, there's the potential for gold to set another base here and move higher, taking out the price cycle highs at the 1550 area up to test the 1580 handle. However, any resistance seen in the 1530 region would likely set a potential head and shoulders pattern and suggest a move down to test the 1440 support area, which would be another opportunity with bullish reversal patterns to set long positions. However, these preferred scenario at this stage would be actually watching for a test of this 1580 and setting short positions with bearish reversal patterns confirming up at this 1580 resistance. Over the border in Canada, Wednesday's CPI report will be the main domestic macro event of the week. That it precedes the Fed policy statement of press conference on the same day could make its market influences fairly short lived. Retail sales are expected to pop higher for the month of July in data released on Friday. The two expected drivers include higher gasoline prices that were up about 3-4% month over month and higher auto sales. Manufacturing sales could face added downside risk when July's figures are released on Tuesday. From a technical perspective, the LUNI faced a decent recovery on Friday, testing back up to the original trend line support now acting as resistance at the 133 handle. Interesting developments over the weekend, with respect to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia could suggest that we see a gap down at the open and traders should be cautious of that at the Asian Open this evening. As this gap may then proceed and more extended move to the downside, certainly retesting the current lows up to the 130 area and potentially down to test the 128-90 projected trend line support as crude supplies could be heavily impacted on this issue that they're facing with the Saudi Arabia oil fields. Over in the Eurozone, Tuesday, September ZEW survey of expectations is expected to come in pretty soft as manufacturing continues to contract. Euro area August core CPI final print with core inflation stuck around 1%. Friday's Eurozone September consumer confidence likely softened further but to the same not to the same extent as as business sentiment. From a technical perspective, the Euro dollar has put in a significant double bottom pattern here at the yearly S1. However, when we traded up to test the initial trend line resistance above the 111 handle, profit takers stepped in. The key now is going to be this 11050 battleground for this week. If we hold 11050, it's likely we take out the 111 and trade up to test the descending trend line resistance at 112. However, a failure back below 11050 would concern this bullish projection and ultimately set a retest of the current cycle lows down at 10930 and then to 10820 in extension, which is the descending trend line support area. However, my preferred scenario is that we do hold 11050 and trade up to this 112 area as discussed in my daily market outlook. While we're talking about the Eurozone, let's check in with the DAX. The DAX duly traded higher as we suggested from last week's review and we are now testing the pivotal 12500 areas. This acts as resistance on the initial test. I would look for support to come in around the 12100 area for another move higher to retest prior highs up above the 12660 level. Watching closely as we test this area for if we continue to see momentum divergence, this could be a significant area of profit taking and we could ultimately see a move back to test back towards the 12000 handle as support. Thursday's Bank of England meeting is unlikely to offer much by way of potential fireworks. No policy changes are really anticipated. The path toward the meeting will see political risk being informed somewhat by hearings before the Supreme Court that's been asked to provide a final ruling on the constitutionality of P. M. Johnson's decision to pro-row parliament. The decision follows in the wake of mixed rulings that included the Scottish appeal court ruling that the decision was unlawful and then the lower UK court decision that went the other way. The Bank of England's decision will also be preceded by fresh inflation data for August which is released on Wednesday and Thursday's retail sales that are expected to show a light inflationary pressure and weaker consumer spending. That said, the trend depreciation in the pound sterling suggests further forthcoming upward pressure upon inflation. Cable continued to recover this week and we have tested offers above the 125 handle. As the 124 supports, I'm now anticipating an early test of the 12640 major trend line resistance. I would anticipate that on the initial test at this level we would likely see profit taking on the current move. We're ultimately setting the stage for a pullback to test bids down towards 123 and then as this 123 supports, there's the potential that we re-challenge this 12650 resistance area and ultimately exceed 12650. However, any failure back below the 121.85 will be a bearish development suggesting a retest of the current range lows down at 119.60. In Asia, some of what had been building momentum towards potential policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan has abated given recent bond market movements. The BOJ was thought to be contemplating a reverse twist by contrast to the twist of the yield curve that the Federal Reserve employed in the crisis aftermath. This would have attempted to keep short term rates lower or lower while putting upward pressure upon longer term bond yields. The recent correction in global bond yields has carried the JGB yield up with it and bought it back within the target range. That may lessen pressure upon the BOJ to perhaps lower its negative policy balance rate. Ahead of a planned sales hike tax next month and still very weak inflation that will be updated against towards the end of the week, the BOJ may keep stimulus thoughts in mind, but the market pressure to act now has very recently lightened somewhat. From a technical perspective, the dolly end has tested the trend line resistance above 108. As this area potentially contains currently, I'll be looking for a pullback to the 107 area, which would be an opportune level to look to set long positions, targeting a move to retest the current highs at 108.16, break those in a move up to test the yearly pivot at 109.50. Where once again I'd expect profit taking to emerge. The key issue in Australia this week is going to be whether or not the Australian economy can keep up with job growth momentum. The August jobs report on Wednesday will seek to build upon a fresh trend following the strong 41,000 job gain in July after a flat prior month. RBA minutes will also be released on Tuesday with the market watchers eyeing for details regarding a possible October rate cut. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has held above the 68 level this week and I now anticipate that we test offers above the 69 level. On this initial for I expect we see profit taking develop and a pullback to test the 68 level as support as this area does support. I'd be looking to set long positions with bullish confirmation patterns to target a move up to test the major trend line resistance at 69.50 and then up to 70 in extension. Any failure back below 68 would concern this view and suggest a retest of the current range lows back towards the 66.80 level. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing September the 16th. Be sure to follow my daily market outlook released each morning at the London Open. Thanks very much for your time.