 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. I wanted, we are back here after this news report and what was that I saw that the, what was the news that came out at 10, oh ISM is strong today. Okay, well, what we're looking at here is a situation where the DAO is down 104, not too bad, but it's down 190, 104 at 34,542. It's making this arch formation. It's really important that there is some support in the 35, 34. Let's see what I said here for subscribers to move in and call. Yes, we went right through the 34,585 support. We're now at 34,545. That's not so good because those automated Chapman Wave support levels very often they act. Look, you can see how this was resistance right here on the way up and then we came down. All right. So this is, you know, it's a very interesting thing. As I was looking at the market over the weekend and when I did my market overviews for subscribers on Saturday, I think it was. Yeah, there was so many aspects. Look, the SMH is holding really well. I mean, look at this. I should mention we are still short. We almost got stopped out of part of the short position. This is the core short of the SMH itself, shorted right here, made a high of 161.17 on July the 31st. Next, they gave a candle that said, you know what? After the doji candle breaking to a lower, lower, lower than the previous day. That's just a tip off to say with the MACD week, the stochastic week that there should be a turnaround even though the non-period moving average was strongly over the 14. So before the open on the, what was that? I think it was the second. Second of August because on the first of August, we were short the Dow. So it was the second of August. We went shorted just over 159. So that's, you know, it was 161.17 was the all-time high. So within less than two points of the high and then we added the three times short SOXS and we got beautiful trades over there. And now we've just got this, this core position. And I have to tell you the estimations, which I consider to be a lead indicator of the general market, holding very well. And look at the weekly chart, yeah, the middle chart, that just holding very nicely. Nine is over the 14 prices over the nine. MACD week, stochastic is weak, on balance volume is weak. And yet that nine is just, it's imperative to monitor. Let me just show you why. Look, when a lot of people were talking about the dollar breaking down, dollar breaking down, and I remember CNBC, there was one particular person said, oh yeah, oh yeah, that's the end of the dollar. And there were even texts and emails from different financial institutions that send out these things automatically. That said, uh-oh. And I kept saying, I might be wrong, but that nine period holding so strongly over the 14 period moving average I can't consider that bearish. That's really bullish. And look where we are. We've just spiked up, the dollar is down seven cents, seven texts at 104.73. Way over the nine, nine is way over the 14, 104.13 is the support of the nine period moving average, 103.89. It can change at any point. Look what happened over here when it finally did. It made it lower highs. Here it's making higher highs. So at this particular point, the dollar, I think this is the lead indicator and that's really important. Okay, so with that said, let me just have a drink of water. Look what we've got. You've got this strong. The estimators turning down, but the price is over the nine and the nine is over the 14. So this is a process that says there's a chance that if the semiconductor, the SMH market vectors, ETF, can start to close under 150 for two out of three sessions, maybe this week or could even be next week, without pushing into the 158, 159 area, then you could start to see the general market pulling back. But at this point, there's a real big diversion a bifurcation for sure. And I have to respect that. So within that context, really what we're looking at is there is strength and there's rotational strength at this particular point. For instance, HAC is where we're trying to get in. We're wanting to get in and it just holds again nicely. Finally, the prime cybersecurity stocks, this ETF is doing what it should have been doing ages ago. I don't know why it's doing it now. It should have been most of going into the end of 2022 in the beginning of 2023. It just didn't. And now finally in 2023, the last four months, not big, but it has been moving up. So that's why I'm saying there's a big divergence between so many areas. Look at this, the IYT. Oh, I didn't do my opening intro. Look, look at this dreaded H pattern right here. But I see it as Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund. Too many words. If you're looking at the monthly basis, it's not a big deal. It's holding quite nicely. If you're looking at the weekly basis, yep, I made a peak D, announced pulling back. I haven't got a down arrow yet. As soon as it closes decisively under the 14 period moving average, I've got a down arrow. But it's a cell mode in the daily. And if you look at jets, and the oil, skyrocketing oil prices, that's an issue. Look, look at jets made a lower low. And that's the U.S. Global Jets ETF. And the monthly chart got repelled to the Chatham Wave inside track repellent zone right there. Look at that. It just keeps going there. It can't handle it even when it goes above it. It can't handle the truth. So the most important thing that we're looking at here is in this kind of mixed market, you've got to put your chips. I shouldn't have said that. We've got to put your money. In areas that seem to be holding well and actually cash is still not a bad position. And I have to also mention that the DBA, the Agricultural Fund, which we all know, because this is doing very nicely. It keeps having this yo-yo impact of going to the 22s, then plunging down to the 20 level, then up to the 22s, then back down to 20 or 21, and then rallies. It's not giving it up. And I was looking at the grains, and if you look at the grains, this is weak continuous contract at the lows. If you're looking at soybean, a little different chart, this is rallying quite nicely. It's holding the 14 over the 9. It should go to a higher high. It's trading up 17 and 1382. If you look at corn, corn as we say here in the Boston area, down at the bottom, if you're looking at sugar, I think it finally broke out of that peak C1, C2, C3. That means it's just parallel highs. In the weekly chart, now it's gone to a leg deep. So there are areas that are working. I'll be back to $1.70, and yes, we sent you. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For more details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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Hi, folks. So a chart that I haven't done for ages and I had forgotten about it, which I just redid is the S&P growth. And I remember now, look at this right-side chart. S-P-Y-G is a symbol. I remember looking at this and saying, and I went through all the different variations of the S&P Y, not Y, but B. And the reason why I say B is it went to a peak B at the old, at the 48, 18, 62 all-time high back in January of 2022. And in the chapaway methodology, a buy signal that gets upgraded to a buy mode which this absolutely did, because look at the MACD, look at the stochastic up in the 90% area, unbalanced volume of screaming up 9 over the 14 from that breakout from way back. The breakout of... I can't believe I'm... Look at this. The breakout from... Come on, really. I'm going back from over here. In 2010, the nine-period moving average in January broke out above the 14. And look, green, green, green. I need to do this here because I forgot all about how... I thought it turned down at some point. So let me go to a monthly chart. Here we go. I'll go to this monthly chart right here using this particular technique. Look, here's the nine-period exponential moving average. So we're going to go to s and p, sp, x dot x. There we go. Oh, man. Look at this. From 2010 right over there. And that was... I'll give you the exact date right there. So the second... So this is February of 2010. And remember, we were long from 2009. March, the exact day of the low. We went along the diamonds. So this is going to be interesting. That was the Dow I was talking about. This is the s and p. Green, green, green, green, green. This one indicator could have kept you. It didn't keep me, but it could have kept you in the trade from February of 2010 all the way to where it turned pink. Oh, I forgot to look at the price. Let me do that again. 2010. So right there. So that was it. Let's go to the high. 1,000... Let's go to 1,112. 1,112. All the way through. This is impossible. To August of 2022 at 41... No, 43... 43,20... 43,25. Unbelievable. And then it flipped green a few months ago, and now it's green. The SPYG has done pretty much the same thing. And... But it's only the last three months, including this month, that is, that it's flipped to green on the nine-period exponential moving average. So let me go back to what we were looking at, and that is here. And the question is, any thoughts on SPYG position to add into media term? And I'm going to say SPYG, once again, that is the growth part of the S&P 500. Pulling back here after this peak be almost at the high that was made back in late July. And I'm going to say, yes, where... I wouldn't do it right today, even though it's a longer term, and a big deal if it pulls back from 61 to even 59, it's only two, three points maybe, if you're looking at new highs to come. But I need to know that this particular pullback that we're looking at right now is going to garner strength across the board, because if we constantly have this rotational correction, and I'm going to go... I want you for six sessions now, I have a whole list of things to look at, and I haven't done that because there have been so many other very interesting questions in the show. So let me do this. A, this is a B, and a syllabi mode B, but it has pulled back sharply, that can change, but the weekly chart is very good. So I... Looking at it intermediate to if you have your position, oh, I know what I would do. I would split it, and I'd say at this particular point at 61 between now and say a point or two lower if it goes lower, I'm going to say, yeah, this position should have a stop. Now, I know that if you're looking intermediate to you don't really want to stop, you're going to... you're saying, hey, this is the position I want. I'm prepared to give it a 5 or 7 or 10% leeway, but I want to hold it. So I would say if you... if you want to do it now, you could just start a split position of whatever you wanted to put in, split it in half. You could even split it into three and touch a little bit here. Two points lower, you could add again. I'm just saying, I would personally, if you want my opinion, which is what you're asking, I'm going to say hold off, but please remind me in another day or two. I'll keep it on my list. S-B-Y-G. And thank you for pointing that out. I'd forgotten it, and I said, I remember I did this at some point and there was another S&P and I can't remember which one it was that did go to a D. Has gone to the D in the monthly chart, but the... And now let me just go through this because it's so important. In the S&P, that P-B that was made in January of 2022, that gets negated. If this P-C right here sees a leg D that fails under that previous 48, 18.62 high, that says to me, okay, you've got your D, it's accomplished the bi-signal to bi-mode of at least a D, so that's negated. That whole thing that we've been sitting with for over a year saying, how on earth can this fail to the P-B? That's the only way it can fail if it makes a D before that. Or it has to go all the way back to 2191, under the 2191-86 level, that negates it. All right, so with that said, I've got a chunk of those things out of the way. Let me just run this again. So S&P we've got to, S&P on the short-term, pulling back quite viciously here on the 14-period moving average, but all the technicals actually are holding nicely, the QQQ, pulling back a little bit, not as severely. Well, on the day at 0.72, it's a little bit more than 0.67 to slide in the S&P and the 0.36 in the Dow, but I'm saying that the weekly is still holding very well. IWM was the weaker one yesterday, today it's again weak, not such a great chart, and the weekly chart is okay, but this is the weaker one. I just need to go through this now, gold. Gold is down 8 at 1944. Look how it got repelled from the 200-period exponential moving average, but the GDX was the clue because it went under, it couldn't get to the 30, it made a 30-round number. I remember when I think it was in the YouTube who said round number, I think it was, I both said, round number GDX, now at GDX is trying to establish it's up 5 cents, that's the gold minus, but look at the silver chart, that's silver chart, that is ugly stuff. Down 42 cents at 23-44, now it's missing up the weekly chart. I'll be back to down 127, I'll be right back. Coensies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity market across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. 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TFNN Educating investors Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV Yes, we have a tiger in the den who bought the SH which is one to one short the spy almost at the top and it's trading at 13.99 it didn't make a peak C I could call that a C1 it's not quite a peak C2 but it has the characteristics pulled back very sharply so I just wanted to show this because you see this low bar here and this is part of the Chapman Wave technique a low bar cannot be a high bar at the same time in other words only at a peak D instant restart occur so you see this low that was made at 13.47 on the 27th of July this is the SH it's the one to one short the S&P this is you see that leg up and it had a higher 1371 well some people I see call that an A that's not an A because it's not a trough you can only start your count after a trough this is still a leg down the very next session at a higher low that's your trough so only from here from the right side from the 28th was that a 28th from the 28th can you start the wave count so this is not A that's incorrect and I'll show you some examples of an instant restart but this is not A that's your A that's your B that's your C just under it you get your failure C1 it pulls back and it starts your rally now the weekly chart in the SH that's a little different you see how the pink 9-period moving average has made a W formation see the way the MACD is rallied see the way stochastic went from single digits to double the teens and then over 20% see the way the on balance volume is lagging a little bit that's why this is struggling some and that's the reason why I'm saying that there are still enough areas within something like an S&P 500 to say it's not going to be easy in fact at this particular point I'm calling it a digestive rotational correction that I haven't gone whole hog into the short side on this pullback because I see enough even today for instance we've got a particular stock in the high area robotics and it's had a fantastic gain and we've taken nice profits off it and then we've tried to get in twice with a fairly tight stop and it didn't work but I did that yesterday on the pullback and between the price we got in the close yesterday and intraday it was up maybe 4% in what a couple of hours actually and it's given that back it's still above our entry point but that's how you have to do it unless you can get your entry point with a good cushion and this particular instance with SH if our denner got in at a nice level he can put up with all this the volatility the vicissitudes of the market itself because it's in at a good level that's the same with us as we got in the short on the Dow at the exact high it just gives us a little cushion otherwise I absolutely would have got stopped down in that sudden big remember it was a Friday I think you had that sudden 500 point move up and then it gave some of it back that was on the 11th of August but it didn't take us out but I would have if we got in a little later than that I would have had a stop would have been out so I make a big deal about attempting very much to try to get the outside of the moves as the turns occur because it just gives you that cushion you need to have a cushion in markets like this because otherwise you're going to get whipped around so within that contact congratulations to our denner for that SH position because it was almost at the high now let's just see here Excel I needed to do this because Teddy Kegsack sat in for Tommy who was out this week and he was looking at someone who called in about the the DXY and the DXY to get, oh USD, there we go USD that was the Polish Zloty and look at this, that is a big breakout above the 200 period exponential moving average a leg C, I must double check I believe it's a leg C in the weekly chart for all these zeros so 9, 6, 2, 5, 9 oh 9 6, 2, 5, 9 yeah so this is a leg C and this is just a grey leg A in the weekly so this is a really good move but it started back in July at about 3.94 and yeah we are at 4.26 so all these different currencies look at this, here's the USD Jpy USD Jpy nice move to the upside GSAS C in the daily chart leg D did a beautiful left side time match hasn't gone, the actual high itself is 151.94 and that was back in 2022 so we've still got a way to go but yes your cup formation how many cup formations have we seen that actually go back like a large rectangle formation, so this is A, this is B, this is C and my rule of thumb with a large rectangle formation is that there should be a rally for making higher highs and higher lows there should be a rally that takes it to at least oh did I just lose something oh stuck oh there it is that should take you to at least the previous high just under it just above it or right on and then it should pull back and now all of a sudden it's all I don't like this this is not a good side at 10.37 in the morning I need this to be working is it working yes it's working but I can't type oh it's frozen I can't stand when that happens I don't know why it's frozen there must be something that I'm doing somewhere let me see if there's anything oh man oh that means I have to shut down I'll lose all the information that I've just done I've lost I usually there must be something going on here am I missing is there a little message somewhere that's saying no not miss a message there no message there no oh oh not good not good not good oops okay so how am I going to get out of this how on earth am I going to get out it's just stuck that's it I'm done and then with somebody I want you to look at Nike for one of our dinners yeah I've got a whole bunch the Bank of America oh man and if I shut this down it's going to lose all this notation that I did the whole thing I just did for that zloty gone no don't do that and even my notations for my I can't even go there there must be something going on we've got to break good we've got to break I don't know how I'm going to resolve this without having to redo all the notations again I don't know I'd like to blame trade station but I can't I'm almost sure that it's probably my system here they have a very good system something's going on alright I'll be back in a moment the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI GDX, The Dollar, Bonds, The South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN educating investors biotech is booming but for how long has room to run or has run its course trade LABU or LABD directions daily S&P biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit directioninvestments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ Hi folks, do you remember all those fantastic charts everything I did nothing it's not a letter here it's up right there at 8.20 morning I picked some of the stuff maybe it is the cash I thought I cleared the cash it doesn't matter but I'm going to say it doesn't matter and I'll just show USDJPY what was that USD can I all go on watch oh I must have saved it earlier on very good okay you never know a couple of questions came in what's that flashing at the bottom of your screen at the bottom of oh that's just because when I scroll across that's what it does I have no idea why it goes to the blank screen at the back with all those little icons if I move the mouse a certain way I would not be able to figure out my guy has me able to either alright enough of this messing around I just wanted to go through okay Nike so Nike is trading NKE this is the potential dreaded H pattern look at all these what's the dreaded H dreaded H is when I go to three core patterns that we look at are right there straight line up or down cup formation arch formation or a mix of one and two or one and three one and three is red because if it fails at a peak A or B it can go sharply below the left side low and then double that distance so we've seen this actually went to an F and then it rolled over that's the dreaded H pattern and look what happened here turned around I think that's exactly right that's an A over there peak A gray A because there's no buy mode or anything in it or buy signal so that says that Nike trading at 99 28 the way the weekly chart look at the nine is so weak below the 14 look at the MACD is very weak so the castings flat at 18% on balance volumes failing and that just says at this left side low in the 96 area should be tested but is it in this particular down move before there's an H pattern that goes to an M pattern probably there might be a little bit of a bounce but I can just tell you this if this candle low of the 28th of 98 is that 98 98 87 is you close under that not you but Nike if it closes under that NKE is a symbol in the next two sessions there's a really good chance it's going to try to just this candle of the 23rd of August that has a high of 90 99 19 so we're almost there and the low of 98 96 55 that's going to be really important now couple of things that 90 some profits or yeah I have to figure that browser because if that's what I can just do every I actually restart every day because it does almost the same thing I thought but I didn't restart today I restarted yesterday twice action so with that said these are the things I want to look at here XHB XHB this is the S&P whoops this is the S&P home bill this had a high at a peak B in there it is had a high of 86.61 in December of 2021 like the S&P then it pulled back a 50% retracement goes peak A gray A gray B but the stochastic then went above 80% so this is a by mode so that this lost high right yeah it's a monthly set will be this high right here the high of 2 bar reversal 85.13 and 85.11 so it's this high right here the week of the 28th of July that's where you got peak C1 C2 C3 C4 these all fade is just underneath the D and then you have this big spike to the upside and yesterday a sharp pullback that just says that the S&P home builders need to take a breather based on all the technicals that I'm looking at but that nine period moving average over the 14 of the weekly chart is stupendous you'd have to see this at 74.30 you're at 81.21 right now somewhere in the 74s for that green nine period moving average in the weekly to go negative so that's saying there is still I wouldn't rule out anything at this particular point because all the assumptions that you would make under normal conditions are just not applying they just not applying in this particular environment so we were going to short we did once before short toll brothers and toll brothers is made an all time high three days ago an all time high after pulling back so sharply from 83.72 the 18th of July spiles up to the 74s and now it's plummeted down to the 78s and now it's trading at 79.98 and look at the nine period moving average in the weekly chart and that's what I'm saying you cannot look TLT TLT I mean horrible horrible is being very polite look at that monthly chart is making the potential for the dreaded age the pattern that I was looking at straight line down makes an art formation fails at a peak A or B hasn't taken out the 9185 low of October of last year but wow it's got red candles and it can't it has had a green candle in the monthly for a very long time for five six months but that's to do with the interest rate here's the yield the yield had a huge spike to 36.44 3.644 and on the recent bounce hasn't gone back to it so that's saying to me that the yields and I'll go to the TNX which is the 10 year that's where most of the yields for credit cards, order loans etc that's what they based on although when you look at credit card loans up to the 19 and 22 percent area you have to wonder how they're getting away with that anyway back at the ranch look the 10 year is getting close but it also hasn't broken the high that was made on the 22nd I think yeah 22nd of August at 43.62 4.362 and this is a moving target so when I put the numbers in they sometimes change then we just check out the high of the week of the 21st of October was 43.33 oh yeah that's saying the same all right so it has gone to a peak E in the most recent deseration and is it 45 or 46 but I'm not going to do that right now even though I always circle a D that goes very quickly within 3 bars to the next letter E and look at the double top here the technicals are not as strong as they were in the monthly chart but that 9 is still way over the 14 I can't rule out anything of this particular point other than to say this is not your father's Oldsmobile whatever the expression is this is very very different to almost any other period we've had in a very long time so with that said I also want to look at the ITB ITB ITB is the iShares construction EDF made an all-time high 3 months ago then a 7-way 2 bar reversal and now it's a little bit weak because we have 2 weeks for gaining D in the week but I have no choice but to draw in the falling exclamation and see if it's able to break down a curve or break down the line so I didn't really watch it I'll be back down 178 you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible to give advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence 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day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv hi Marks we're back so yeah the ITV which is the construction has had a very sharp pullback but it's still if you look at the weekly it's still near the highs but I contend that the market is going to wake up at some point and start to see the whole housing sector pull back it's just a breather because it's had a spectacular move and if these rates continue high if crude oil continues high look at this here's crude oil look at CSX oh I hope I've got the chart updated yes I have look at this dreaded age pattern here it is making a low low that's the rails I mean you can go that's the rails that's not even the jets which we looked at before the jets all right the jets 18.81 down 8 cents this is these higher oil is a problem and that's one of the reasons why within the context of whoops don't tell me send the request we're still okay so I told Alan my wonderful programmer and engineer now I'll do Steve's show because I've got a ton of things that I was asked about I'd like to do but I might have to stop every once in a while if I see something that I want to trade but of course now I've lost all my notation but you don't need that you can just use the charts as they stand right now is that the blank yeah it's a blank chart I can show you even from a blank chart we can do a whole bunch of things so I'll be back as soon as this shows over to do the next hour it won't be Steve Rhodes mastering probability but it will be my hour in that particular time frame. Downs down 187 S&P is now down 34 weakening as we speak this is going to be a very important week because it's the beginning of September they don't call it the fall for nothing I'll be back in a moment