 Hello and welcome to the CMC Market's Monday weekly webinar with myself, David Madden, market analyst. Today's date is Monday the 11th of December and time has just gone 12.15 GMT. As always, with our webinars, what I'll be doing is I believe in the risk warning slides on the screen here for you guys to have a read through, experience it forward, it will keep my compliance department happy and essentially states anything that is discussed in the webinar today is purely just my own personal opinions and my own views, not to be construed as explicit investment advice or trading advice. It's just very straightforward. It's quite standard practice. I'll just leave the other few risk warning slides on the screen there while you guys have a read of it. What has been going on in the markets over the weekend? To be honest, not really in terms of the economic or political news, not really a whole lot. The banking stocks are doing well in London. The last three updates that we had last week was basically speaking better than expected. It looks like that the regulation isn't going to be as harsh as traders were expecting and the banks are well capitalized, so it looks like by and large everything is okay in terms of funding wise. So you've seen some of the financial stocks in Europe do quite well this morning. We've also here talks that Martin Schultz of the Social Democrats in Germany is kind of keen to open the idea of having a coalition talks with Angela Merkel's CDU, Christian Democratic Union. So we could be seeing a bit of political stability coming out of Germany seeing as Germany has been without functioning government for over two months. Later today we're going to address our cabinet and also MPs in relation to the break tree that was made on the Brexit deal or progress that was made. There's agreement made last Friday in relation to things like the Irish border and also in relation to the exit bill, the divorce bill. There's been a sufficient progress that has been made and that has in turn allowed the UK to kind of move on to stage two of the actual negotiations but obviously not everyone in Theresa May's cabinet or even the House of Commons are going to be happy with this. So we could see a bit of pushback from that but Theresa May is expected to say state things have taken an optimistic tone but then again it was the deal that she struck so of course she was always going to say something along those lines. So we have seen a bit of continued weakness in the British pound. Nothing to get overly worried about particularly against the US dollar but it's still it's a factor that is playing in the darkness today. Take a quick look at the week ahead. If you go to our website www.seamsubrax.com and under news and analysis and on the filter by section, third option down, weekly outlook. There's an article here that gives you the rundown of what we can expect over the next five trading days. Tomorrow Tuesday we have first half figures from Ashhead or a British company but they derive the majority of the money from the US so if the US economy is doing quite well or also because they earn a lot of money in dollars and they convert that back to British pounds. Whenever the pound is relatively weak Ashhead tends to do well. On Tuesday we have CPI numbers are coming from the UK. On Wednesday we have unemployment and average earning numbers coming off in the UK and on Thursday we have quite a few central banks giving us updates. We have interest rate decisions from the SNB, Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the ECB, the European Central Bank. It's all going to be fairly on interesting. The one that I'll watch out for might be the European Central Bank. The European Central Bank as Mario Draghi has a several occasions expressed concerns over the lack of proper inflation growth in the eurozone. Even though inflation, the most recent reading of eurozone inflation show that it's taking higher, it's probably not. It didn't take up as high as the market expected. To keep an eye out for that obviously on Wednesday we have the Fed and Reserve and it's widely anticipated that the Fed and Reserve are going to rate interest rates by 0.25% to 1.5% and obviously there's a press conference which will follow that as well. On Wednesday we also have first half figures from Dixon's Carrephone. On the early hours of Thursday we have an update from China as well. We have retail sales, industrial production, pickaxe and investment. So if you trade at any of the kind of Chinese-sensitive markets such as high-grade copper or mining companies or even the FT100 because all those mining companies can swing around FT100, keep an eye out for that. And also we have an EU summit at the back end of the week and that's obviously going to be shaping things. Potentially more to do with the British panel to give us the agenda of how things are going to flow in terms of negotiations. This section here gives a quick breakdown of the very specific companies that are important this week. As I mentioned Dixon's Carrephone at the first half figures out on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday we have full-year figures from 2-WeTravel. Thursday 4th quarter numbers from Adobe Systems and that is sort of it for the week. It's going to be quite a week in terms of economic indicators in terms of co-reporting. Speaking of economic indicators, if you want to find out where our calendar is on our website, go to the Market Pulse option. Fourth tab down, Market Calendar. This gives a breakdown of the very different economic indicators that are coming out. As I mentioned tomorrow, half-night, tomorrow the UK CPI numbers coming out. We can see it listed here. The previous reading was three. We're expecting that to remain unchanged at 3% on a year-on-year basis. And then once the actual figure is out itself, that will be populated here in the actual box. So if you are trading the financial markets, it is worth keeping an eye on the economic calendar, planning out what is due to come out, and also what is the expectation and the previous numbers. Let's give you a quick rundown here. Like I said, UK unemployment and earnings figures coming out on Wednesday. Thursday we have quite a few separate bank updates. We also have French CPI numbers out. We also have the Spanish CPI numbers coming out as well, along with the Italian numbers as well. And then passing over to Friday, we have Irish GDP coming out. And we also have the New York Empire State Manufacturing Report coming out in the half-wond on Friday. So as always, I'll run through the major markets. What could we take a look at? In relation to your question there, in relation to take position against Euro, I will be going through currency pairs towards the back end of the webinar. I'll go through the indices, commodities, and currency pairs. Anything that I don't cover, feel free to type in the chat box what you would like me to cover. So we can see here that after quite a few weeks I've got a fairly clear sell-off from November until only the end of last week. The plus was in quite a clear downward trend here. Lower-low, lower-high, lower-low. But now we seem to actually have pushed a bit of a decent move higher in the last couple of sessions, partially held by the weaker British power. So you can see here, as the plus was pushing higher here, we can see on the MACD histogram, the MACD indicator, that the momentum swung from negative to positive. So the market is pushing higher. The positive momentum is on the rise, so you can be more confident that that move will continue. It's actually telling us that the momentum indicator confirms the direction of the move. So as the market is pushing higher, the next potential level to keep an eye out for is going to be the late November high of 7,472 on the plus 200. And if you do take out that level, that could be an indication that downward trend has been in place since early November has come to an end. And if you do manage to take out 7472, we could be looking ahead and back up towards the 7600 region. But if the market fails to take off this level here, and say for example, runs into resistance again in around here, or the fifth of the moving average at 7458, 560 in around there, we could be looking heading back down towards this level here, the September low of 7278. And then if you move south of that, we could be looking back to the September low of 7195. And then if you go south of that, we could be looking back down towards the April low of 788. Take a look at the DAX now. Not too dissimilar. After having a rough ride in November, it's not really kind of pushing higher, but it hasn't quite taken out the most recent highs. So the big picture of the DAX has been clearly to the upside. After a decent setup in the summertime, we managed to push higher. Quite aggressive move to the downside here in the middle of November. It's sort of range bound for the last number of weeks. Kind of lower end of the range would be 12,850 or so, maybe say 12,800 on the higher, higher in the range, about 13,200. So I'm looking at about a 400 point range. And we appeared to be at the top end of that range at the moment. And notice how on the MACD histogram, the MACD indicator, we can see negative momentum was sliding and sliding and sliding. So the setting pressure was in decline. And I've actually seen momentum actually ever so slightly swing around to the positive side. So it now appears that any kind of momentum is with the bulls, is with the fire. So as the market is pushing up here, the next potential level of resistance to keep an eye for was where this gap was created here at 13,316. And if you take off that level, we wouldn't be too far away from the record high, which comes to play here at 13,534. So we could be more confident of the market retest in the all-time high and potentially setting up fresh all-time highs if we move back above this level here. Moved to the downside, could find support in around the fifth of the moving average, which comes into play in around here in around 13,080 odd. And then south of that, back down towards 13,000 itself. But if you do kind of break south of 13,000, we could be looking back to testing the December lows of 12,810. And if you go south of that, we could be looking back down towards this area here in late September, which is previous resistance back then came into play at 12,705. Let's take a look now of what's going on in the American markets. So the American markets haven't gotten quite in fact to their record all-time highs, but after the correction that we did see at the back end of last week, we are seeing moves move higher yet again, bearing in mind that Dow has been an absolutely stormer of an upward trend. You know, the trend is your friend until it comes to an end is the old market average. And the decline in the dip has been quite a popular choice with some traders over the last number of months. So it still appears that it's a fairly solid upward trend. We're not too far away from the all-time high at 24,535. That's the next big level to the upside of what you're all for. And then as we're going to uncharter territory, traders might be looking towards the big psychological numbers, 24,600,700, 800, so on and so forth though. But if you do see any kind of move to the downside, you may find support in around Friday's low at 24,208 or south of that at Thursday's low at 24,071. What I will say this though is that as markets pushing higher here, we're kind of seeing a fairly obvious decline in positive momentum. So that's a slight bit of a worry when the market's pushing higher, but the rate of change, the rate of momentum is increasing. It's almost like saying that the buyers could be running out of steam. It could be an early indication that we may see a bit of a turn over, but the price is the most important indicator. So the price is going up, that's really where you should be taking your cues from. Like I said, the market holds north at the 24,000 level, it is likely that this policy trend will continue. And the chart on the S&P 500 is fairly similar. Hasn't gotten back to the recent old, fresh all-time highs, but we certainly are heading in that direction. So the all-time high comes into play here at 2665. So we're not too far away from the moment we're currently trading 2653, so we're about 12 points or 13 points shy of it, which isn't really a whole lot for the S&P. So the upward trend is not very much in place. If we do see the downside, we could find support in around this kind of consolidation area here. The higher end of the consolidation area would be in around 2626. To the lower end of that consolidation range would be 2626. So at a 6 point range, that kind of area may provide support should we see any move to the downside of the S&P 500. And then south of that, we could be looking back down towards 600, a big psychological number, but notice how that consolidation activated resistance on the way up. Didn't quite get there on the sharp sell-off on December 1st, but this region could see a lot of, could see fresh fires end in the fold, should we see a move down to that area. Taking a look now on the flip side of the coin, on the gold market, which hit a four month low last week, bearing in mind, we would be talking about at the top of the webinar, the better reserve, having an interest rate that's widely expected to raise rates. You could argue that a lot of the rates has been priced in, but in the last couple of years, the last couple of, say, December meetings, we had a December meeting for rates were hiked in December 2016 and 2015, and we did see sell-offs in gold on the run-up to it. We even saw some selling pressure lasting for a couple of days after the meeting, but it's just going on. What happened in past four months obviously does necessarily repeat itself. But the interest rate is fairly to the downside. We've hit its lowest levels, not seen taking that level, that seems to be April. So, actually in fact, we're actually talking back towards five month lows, some of the levels that we posted back in the last week for the gold market. As we saw the market coming off here quite aggressively in December, we noticed how we saw a fairly clear and concise increase in negative momentum. So, the market is moving lower and the pressure to the downside. So, the momentum indicator confirms the move in the underlying market itself. It's obviously taken a bit of a breather in around here, this area in around kind of 1244 region market has taken a bit of a breather. So, I wouldn't be surprised if you see a bounce back at the potentially this area here of say 1260 or perhaps off the high as a 200 day moving average, which comes into play just shy of 1270 around 1266 or so, or 1268. But before we potentially see another move lower. So, we could see a bit of a bounce back to these areas here before we potentially move south again. If we move south we could be heading back to this this price area here of 1230 and if we go below that we could be looking heading back down towards a July low of 1204. Take a look now at what's going on in the oil market. Yes, I deliberately had the weekly chart open rather than the normal daily chart that I looked at because I wanted to show you that how Brent oil is still above its 200 week moving average and obviously the 200 week moving average is really a parameter of how strong the market is and the market is managing to hold up north of the 200 week moving average. So, we can see Brent oil here holding up nicely the 200 week moving average we saw on last week how the market traded basically down to it and the active support. So, that price there of say in around $61.60 where the 200 week moving average comes to play we could see the active support again. Brent oil has really moved a whole lot to the upside and if the market does continue to hold up we could be looking back up towards 65 testing 65 and if we go north of that we could be looking back up towards about mid 67s or towards this right here of around kind of say 67 just shy of $68 a barrel and then if you take out $68 then of course the psychological 70 will then potentially come into play. It's encouraging to say that it's holding up above its 200 week moving average but it's likely worth to say that positive momentum is at this fading here. So, it could be a significant decline in buying momentum and buying pressure. It could be an early indication that the buyers are running a bit out of steam but over the last six months it's been a solid upward trend whenever we've seen sites with pullbacks in price of Brent we have seen fresh buyers enter the fold so be mindful of that. WTI hasn't quite got there to its 200 week moving average but it's not a million miles from it well actually sorry what I meant to say was it's actually dropped back below it it hasn't been as strong as Brent in recent months but you can see here that it's now trading back below with 200 week moving average so this level will need to be retaken we need to be clear retaken before they become more confident of the market pushing higher yet again and so 200 week moving average comes into play at about $57 and $0.60 if we go north of that we take off the recent highs of $58.81 if we go north of that we're looking towards $60 a barrel on WTI and you're going to move to the downside may gain support in around this price here which is going to this price here in around $55 and around say $0.55 so this price here has a lot of price actually so we could see some coming to play if you manage to move lower again similar again, the market is pushing higher but as you can see here we're seeing a cooling off in the positive momentum so that could be an early indication the market is going to have a bit of a correction of a pullback but like Brent in the solid upward trend for the past six months and buying on the dip has been a popular strategy the euro is mentioned during the round in one of the chat boxes I'll discuss now the euro versus the US dollar and also the euro versus the British pound so the euro is at a fairly interesting one the big picture has been very much to the upside at a great 2017 at a sell-off in September managers find some support in around here we pushed higher in November the October high so there could be an indication that we are looking to retest head back up towards 120 maybe even retest maybe even target 121 but for the time being after this push higher here we did see a bit of a drift lower yet again the US dollar has been doing quite well recently so that's taken some of the edge of the euro but while we hold north of the 50 moving average which comes to play in around 1760 the euro could remain positive so what I like about this chart is how the push higher here in November it clearly took out the highs of October so we are creating a higher high which could be a sign of a higher reaction low and they will potentially move on higher again so if you do take off the 50 moving average as long as we maintain north to say 117 as long as we don't take off this low here we potentially see the market push higher on from here and head back up towards the November high of 1961 and then up to the potential towards the 120 region then north of that the recent high of 122 and then once you go beyond that the 121 region will come into play taking a look now at the euro versus the British pound, the euro of sterling so the euro had obviously quite a sizeable and initially sell off on Friday morning on the back of the sufficient progress being made in terms of the UK EU talks but that of course has turned around yet again it's pretty much dancing around the 200 day moving average in around that zero spot 8800 in around here and it has been sort of range bound to the low end the 200 day moving average almost acting as support on some occasions and at the high end hasn't really gone too far beyond recently on the 100 day moving average so it has been range bound enough sort of roughly about a 250 pip range if you do manage to hang north of the 200 day moving average we could be heading back up towards the 100 day moving average which comes into play at zero spot 8951 and if you go north of that then everything you really want to see you want to see all these highs being taken out before you become more confident that the euro is heading back up towards kind of 91 or 92 region it has been a few occasions where it's treaded north of 90 but didn't really last very long there so you want a sizeable move above it you want probably to take off this area here of 9049 before you can become more confident and the euro is going to it's going to continue the wider upper trend that it has been in and it moves to the downside the first half of the KPI4 is going to be the low from Friday which comes into play at 0 spot 8962 sorry 0 spot 8692 and then south of that you could be looking back towards the 86 region we saw on 0 spot 86 after its consolidation back in May look now at the dollar versus the which is the Japanese yen so the webinar itself will be coming to an end now in a few minutes time I don't know any other markets that you'd like me to have a quick run through feel free to just type it in the chat box so you can see here on the dollar versus the Japanese yen since basically late November it's been making a decent surge higher what it's been doing now is probably about 2 and a half about 3 weeks as the market is pushing higher here we can see it's been confirmed by the back D indicator negative momentum is declining then eventually swung to the positive side now it's actually been steadily increasing so as the market is pushing higher the momentum indicator is positive territory and it's expanding so the rate of buying pressure is on the rise it's more confident that this move is going to last as you push higher it's going to be the 1.14 area notice how there's a fair bit of consolidation in around the 1.14 area from October and November and if you go north of 1.14 the November high is then potentially going to be the next area that fires and the bulls are going to be keeping an eye on and that comes to play at 1.14 73 and then south of that if you do manage to drift lower we could actually find support coming into play at the fifth of the moving average 1.12, spot 86 notice how it did act as a bit of resistance and it's pushing higher I once it finally broke higher I once finally pushed through it and then a fairly decent move north of it so it's almost like there's a fairly decent support in place already and then it moves if you take off that level move to the downside may if I support this now here at 1.12 south of that potentially at the 100 day and 2.20 moving average in 1.11 spot 67 and I'll have a look at the Euroseki and the Euronaki and then I'll look to wrap up the webinar coming up to quarter to the hour now so the Euronaki wow okay this is a multi-chart I always like to have a look at what's going on in the big picture thing the real big picture analysis and the big picture analysis we'll look here from the lows of 2012 right here October 2012 so over 5 years it's been fairly clear and obvious upward trend we obviously have some decent pullbacks in that but push higher, higher high higher low, higher high higher low, higher high classic upward trend so as I said the trend is your friend until it comes to an end it's your market adage so what we can see here looking at the daily chart for a bit more of a size level so watch out for it's in a fairly clear and obvious upward trend so finding the dips has been a popular strategy for the last 100 months so this area here seems to be a consolidation area which comes into play around 9 spot 7, 40 9 spots 9 spots, 7 40 ish in around here seems to be a consolidation area to the upside 9 spot 9, 9, 9 and then the kind of psychological 10 spot 0 it's going to be a level to keep 4 on the upside I'll have a look now at the Euroseki similar looking chart hasn't quite engulfed it to the same level but once again from the kind of lows of the summer time at July 2007 broadly being kind of climbing higher a lot of sideways trading but it's certainly getting there at the weekly chart on the Euroseki so as we've been pushing higher here notice how the markets are pushing higher here what we see is a fairly clear and concise decline in negative momentum swing around to increase in positive momentum so as markets are moving higher the momentum is at the fires this high here from 2016 it's potentially going to be the next level that's going to be keeping an eye on 4 because it's a level that this hasn't been seen in about a year but also there's this hasn't been much price action of that high up so keep an eye on 4, 10 spots, 0, 8 and then if we go beyond that we could be looking back a number of years if we take off 10 spots 10 spots, 0, 8 we're then talking back to levels not seen since 2010 and then I would be potentially keeping an eye on 4 probably this area here in around this price of 10 spots, 5, 1 we saw the consolidation around there so because there isn't much to go on price wise it's possible that traders who use charts are also going to be looking at the same handful of prices because there isn't much actually price action north of 10 keeping an eye on a daily chart so it's a fairly obvious upper trend that we're in so keep an eye on the downside if I support in around here in around the 9 spot 3 9 spot 9 3 area or even down as low as 9 spot 9 and it's only if you're going to take off these loads here in around 9 spot A3 then we should potentially be looking to get worried you're very welcome, no worries just before we actually wrap up the webinar some of the articles that we write get posted on the news and analysis section of the website that can be found here, this is a breakdown of the articles, several of them a day get uploaded, keep an eye on those some of the articles get posted there some of them get posted on insights insights can be found like clicking on the market post tab second option down, some of the updates that we do we've posted in there, data alerts discussions information about webinars and some of the articles that we write get posted in there chart 4 which I'm looking at here is under market post also third option down, what it is is a quick look at a particular market and a few hundred I would write a few hundred words about what's going on in a particular market and especially the potential trading ideas or potential views that are prices that I think are pertinent also just before I wrap things up other webinars that we are hosting can be found other webinars that we are hosting can be found in the same place where you found this one on Wednesday the 13th of December in a couple of days time there's a webinar on commodity trends that's starting at 7.30pm UK time next Monday at 12.15pm I'll be back in the hot seat giving the Monday weekly webinar and on Wednesday the 19th of December at half 7pm UK time there will be the next generation forex webinar I want to thank you for your patience and thank you for tuning in have a good trading week, have good luck and hopefully we'll be in touch next week, thank you very much