 Welcome, I'm pleased to welcome you to the inter this IEA event for both our audience here today, which is the big audience and our audience online via zoom. I will be chairing today's event. My name is Alex Dukalski. I'm an associate professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin, and I direct the UCD Center for Asia Pacific Research. And you can tell from my accent I'm a native of the country that we will be trying to better understand today. We're very dumb plan on it. Maybe we'll be more confused by the end. We're delighted to be joined today by Frank Luntz, who, as you know, is a leading American pollster advisor commentator, who has been generous enough to take time out of his schedule to speak with us today. Frank is going to speak with us for just a few minutes I think are relatively short remarks, and he has indicated that he wants engagement so be ready with your questions, I think is the message. You'll be able to indicate that you wish to ask questions of course by raising your hand if you're here in the room, or if you're on zoom using the q amp a function and I'll be able to see those questions here. A reminder that today's presentation and q amp a are both on the record. Please feel free to join the discussion on Twitter, using the handle at IE a I'll now formally introduce Frank and then hand it over to him for his remarks. Frank Luntz is amongst the highest profile political pollsters and commentators in the United States, his instant response focus group technique has been profiled on 60 minutes Good Morning America and PBS is award winning frontline. Frank has been a guest in most of the United States is leading media outlets, and he has written for among others the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Los Angeles Times, at the Times of London and the Washington Post. Yes. Frank has also worked for more than 50 Fortune 500 companies and CEOs, and is the past winner of the Washington Post's crystal ball award for being the most accurate pundit. With that, we'll hand it over to Frank, and welcome to welcome to double. I apologize for being American at this point from so many reasons. But one of them is that I prefer a conversation, rather than lecturing. I did go to school at ocher I went to university Oxford, and my tutor would speak for 15 or 20 minutes before I could utter a single word. That's what I'm told education was to be about it was not a fun experience for me. It's so strange that I go back to Oxford now as a guest lecture and I love it. And as a student, I absolutely hated it. I was so looking forward to it, but I had the mistaken belief that Margaret Thatcher was the greatest Prime Minister since Winston Churchill and Ronald Reagan was the greatest president since Lincoln. And the fact that on the very first day I was there I wore a t-shirt of Thatcher and Reagan hugging each other made me the most unpopular person at Central College. And I never overcame that in the three years that I was there. But thank God I've got the D fill from it and, and it changed my life. I'm sorry for America for three reasons, and then we'll do conversation. Number one, I'm sorry that we are so loud. And, and so angry 73% of Americans are and I quote, mad as hell and not going to take it anymore. That's a line from the movie network and every single year I asked the same question, and the numbers get worse and worse briefly under Barack Obama. It was a little bit less agitation. We're angry at a broken economy that has made a lot of promises that it hasn't delivered. We're angry at a political system that seems to reward the loudest, rather than those who deserve the most. We're angry at a media that doesn't seem to, in our perspective, tell us what we need to know. We're angry at culture. We're making us so disrespectful to each other, and that level of anger boils over so often now, and it makes it hard to govern makes it hard to plan for the future. It's frightening to me. And it's one of the reasons why I spend two months or three months or four months a year in Europe. That will be the source of ridicule just that comment will be the source of ridicule. But you know what, it's quieter here. It's a little bit easier here. Your taxes are too high, your regulations too much. And yet I like it here. And I really, and I really do. Second, is that we have two candidates right now, the public doesn't want and yet they're probably give it a favorites to be the nominees, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. On the Democratic side, Democrats, not voters, Democrats, believe that Joe Biden's too old. He's already 80 years old. And I want to put this in perspective. He's not running for election just a year and a half from now. You're asking, or he's asking for Americans to vote for him for five and a half years from now. He was in this country, you saw him, you listen to him. He's an incredibly decent guy. I've known him now for about 25 years I taught his son at Penn, as a human being. He's one of the best as a president. He is 80 and he shows every element of that age. And that's the easier one. Trump is out of control. There are no limits to what he will say. There are no facts that he will deny. That he won't deny. It's really difficult. And I wrote something from the New York Times and took a little bit of heat for it from Republicans. And some from Democrats. The administration wasn't a bad administration. Our unemployment which they said could not get as low as it got the lowest African American employment rate ever. The lowest Latino unemployment rate for decades. An economy that was absolutely humming a deficit and debt that was way too big way too big, but nothing compared to what it is right now. A border that was under control, compared to right now where it's chaos down on the between Texas and Mexico crime that was under control is not now in New York I have to say to you. But many of you have I have relatives who live in New York. It's not safe. Philadelphia is not safe. Washington DC is if he Chicago's a mess Atlanta, Los Angeles. There was a lot to the Trump administration that was successful. And it's not to his demeanor to how he speaks to people and treats people and the impact that that had on how we relate to each other is horrific. And it's something that we're dealing with every single day and we will for three years to come, even if you should decide not to run which he obviously is running. To put this in perspective. Our economy's gotten a little bit better over the last six months inflation is somewhat subsided otherwise out of control for a while. Whatever you think of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Donald Trump is beating Joe Biden right now in virtually every single respectable survey. So before you dismiss Trump as an extremist which Europeans do so much before you dismiss him for even beyond what I've said about him, he is winning. Because the public does not want another four years of this, or it looking into the future. They don't think it'll be any better. Is about our institutions and about the public's loss of faith and trust and confidence. Everything that I do in my life is the relentless pursuit of the truth, everything. So I've been reexamining where I stand on immigration climate. COVID affirmative action you guys I believe call positive discrimination over here, which is a very interesting term. No side has a monopoly on the truth. Nobody does. And I've been at this now for over 35 years. I was looking at my list of countries I've been to over 40 countries. I've met with more than a dozen world leaders. I've read close to 1000 books. I think I'm a bit shy of that. And I'm changing my point of view all the time now, trying to get at what is the right answer for the problem that we face at that moment. And in academia. I am confronted with students who haven't been to any country. Haven't met a single world leader, barely read because they're on social media, and they tell me was such assertiveness that they're right and I'm wrong. I don't want to have a woke battle in my country in your country in Europe, because if you do, you may win an election, but you will destroy the country in the process. The moment that we see each other by what race we are by what gender we are by, by things that we cannot change. And we're judging them that I'm guilty for some crime that was committed 170 years ago. And that's the case. There is no common ground. There is no solution. When my students don't want to hear an alternative point of view, because they're so sure they're right. Then we got a problem. Then we got a crisis. And that's what's happening right now in the country. And yet, we do have to find a way to live together. We do have to do a better job of reaching out. The right is so dismissive of the left. But the left is equally as dismissive of the right. Take responsibility for your own side. Speak up against your own side. We don't do it. We'll sit there and say, well, as soon as those guys will stop wrecking the country, we'll start live. No. We have to look inward. And we have to say, okay, we got it wrong. And that is Donald Trump is incapable of doing that. He's incapable of saying, I made a mistake. He will not do it. But guess what? So is Joe Biden. He does it more nicely. He does it in a way that's less argumentative or less offensive. He's no less determined that he's right and everyone else is wrong. And the reason why I raise this is we have a debt ceiling crisis that's coming days from now. And Joe Biden will not compromise Joe Biden would not even negotiate. So I've heard all the Trump stuff. I'm anti Trump. I shouldn't say that I am a. I have no problem holding Donald Trump accountable. I'm not going to do the same thing with Joe Biden. Because if we default, you're all going to feel it here in Ireland, you're going to feel they're all across Europe. If we mess up in America, the whole world gets messed up. That's my opening. Okay, my guess is there are some questions. So I would remind you that the Q and A is on the record. And I would ask you to identify yourself briefly and keep your comment, keep your question up relatively succinct and not, not alone. And we want your bank account information. We want your social security number. We want to know where to find you and where to send the government car to pick you up and remove you from society. With that, in the back. I was listening to you talking to that good commentator across to see Andrew Maher the other evening. And you, I was, I certainly scared me and it scared him. You said, you were only one election away from literally, literally Armageddon, you know, because of the way the political conversation has gone, the use of social media, all this unpleasantness to each other that this is what was going to lead to some kind of Armageddon. I don't want to end up because I don't think that was explored that much and that particularly short interval with a question with your permission chairman. Suppose a DeSantis wins the Republican nomination, and then then Trump will run as an independent, and then you could have a three way horse race in the in the presidential election. Would you like to be putting on your punters that you know sorting that out or commenting on what might happen. So once again, I've said this before, the Irish speak English, the best of any English speaking country of all. You just asked a couple of really tough questions but you did in such a beautiful way. It sounds so lyrical. That I could just like close my eyes and listen to it for no wonder you guys are such good writers and poets and and communicators. On the second part, the reason why it will not work is that a whole bunch of states have a sore loser law, which means if you run for president or if you run for office in a political party you cannot then declare yourself independent. They will not give you a line. So Trump could seek to run, but he would be denied the ballot in dozens of states. So that that won't happen. Secondly, DeSantis I believe absolutely beats Joe Biden. In fact, I think every Republican beats Joe Biden, other than Donald Trump, but I should not be so declarative because Trump is winning right now. He's beating every other Republican by, by miles. When he was when they went into Mar-a-Lago, and they searched his place, his numbers went up. When he was indicted for improper payments. He was his numbers went up when he was found guilty of sexual assault, his numbers went up. At this time, he has attacked his numbers go up. And it's not just about being a victim. He's convinced his supporters and many others that he's being prosecuted and persecuted. And he just gets stronger and stronger and stronger. And that's part of my answer to your first question. And by the way, I'm old, just give me, I'm not as old as everyone here, but I'm old. That's my question. So I can, so I'm sure that I actually answer it. The reason why I'm so afraid is because I don't see a solution to this. I see two candidates running and I know that 73% of Americans do not want a rematch of 2020. They don't want these two people, a majority of both Republic majority Republicans don't want Trump to run again. But among those who do he has such solid support majority of Democrats don't want Joe Biden to run, but among those that do such solid support. The reason why I'm and I didn't use the word Armageddon that's either your word or Andrew Mars word but but well I but I'm a man of words, actually, even though I've got a really lousy vocabulary and even though I can't spell at all. Thank God for spell check fact whoever invented spell check deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. I believe that with each election cycle we come closer to losing that element of democracy that we all celebrate free freedom of speech freedom of the press. Freedom to make mistakes, freedom to try again. Freedom of opportunity I'm doing a project right now for the Center for Policy Studies in London. One of the most significant think tanks on the language of freedom, because in the UK, we're not sure that freedom matters. I mean it matters, but fairness seems to matter more than freedom. I can actually ask you that question one second in the states freedoms number one value equality would be number two but the distance would be very wide in the UK fairness is the number one value and it's over freedom. I'm curious just about this crowd here, which is a higher value to you which matters more to you. Freedom to Ireland itself, freedom or fairness, if you had to choose, would you which would you prioritize, who would say freedom. I didn't ask for a comment I asked for a hands, you must be a journalist, who would say freedom. And who would say fairness. So the cameras can't record it but it's overwhelming for fairness here overwhelming. It's a non about cousin of the other two. It might be surprisingly successful as a candidate. If we're to run. That's a good word that's a great question here. Yep. How Sarah carry Irish independent, other than dying. And is there any circumstance under which Biden is not the candidate. Is there any chance for contest. No, because the only Democrat is challenging him. There's a spiritual healer who is involved in the race and she'll get her three or 4% and these are people who basically chat channel channel Oscar Wilde on nights weekends and that like Christmas day. And then there's Robert Kennedy Jr, who is nothing like his namesake, and he'll get 15% of the vote. But it's nothing significant. So Joe Biden is going to be the Democrat unless unless he decides not to run. And he's way behind on fundraising compared to Barack Obama, way behind an organization compared to Barack Obama when Obama sought reelection. So there's something in my head that things that he's doing this simply because he doesn't want to become a lame duck, and that in October or November he'll say okay, I've thought about it, and I really should not be a candidate. No one agrees with me on this, but I do think it's a possibility. And then chaos. You have the vice presidents. Some of you have heard me before that problem with vice president Harris is that she's got the lowest approval rating since Dan quail, and then quail has got the lowest approval rating since Aaron Burr. Now, if you've seen Hamilton you'll get the joke. I should not tell it in a foreign country, because Americans don't know it. But she's a very flawed candidate. A much less flawed candidates the governor of California Gavin Newsom, who already has a nationwide fundraising base has been running obviously the biggest state with the most money of any in the country. You have Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan for Democrats who desperately want a female to be leading their party. And Corey Booker for those who are interested in the African American population incredible speaker, visionary, and a real unifier senator from New Jersey, and Mitch Landrieu, who is the former mayor of New Orleans Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana and now in charge of the president's infrastructure package best retail politician I've ever met on either side. And the one person we haven't talked about. So I'm giving you all these names. So you should write them down and look and go and YouTube them and see what you think is Joe Manchin, as a possible independent candidate. Joe Manchin has real potential. He's not made a public decision whether or not to run I don't know whether he will. He's from West Virginia, governor. He was a governor, he's now a senator held up much of Joe Biden's legislation because he felt it was spending way too much money. And as it turns out, he was the first senator to say, wait a minute, this is going to trigger inflation. Let me see honestly what happened. I he would start with 15% of the vote, which is a high water mark for an independent. And I believe he's got the potential to double that. If he runs with Trump and Biden as the two party nominees, does his decision to run as an independent guarantee a second Trump presidency. No, and everyone asked me the same question. If you actually look at the polling. Because Joe Manchin, even though he's a Democrat, he opposed the Biden administration and some of their signature legislation. So Democrats don't like him. He actually draws more votes from Republicans than does Democrats. Joe Manchin is a safe vote for Republicans who don't like Donald Trump, much more than he's a safe vote for Democrats who don't like Joe Biden. He takes 2.2 votes from the Democrats for everyone. Sorry, I must say it right. He takes 2.2 votes from every Republican for every one vote he takes from the Democrats. So right now, the Republican should be doing everything they can to keep them off the ballot. The threat to Trump much more than the threat to Joe Biden. Okay, we have a question on zoom from Ellen Hazel corn. She asks you have focused on which from doesn't say zoom. She lives in a country called zoom. You have focused on Trump she says what are your views on the Santas who appears to be running on a culture war platform. And of course you were, I believe on BBC yesterday. I'm going to go on the Santas is so we say it's a shambolic, at least from the public perception campaign launch. I know that it's significant when I've got members of the European problem and coming up to me and say and asking me, how can someone who can't launch for president. There are two days that you control everything, and only two days to speeches, your campaign launch and your convention speech when you get the nomination. Everything else is up to the press up to your opponent. And on the very first day that you control everything. You can't get it right. And they're asking me, how can he possibly be president, and their people on the right of the spectrum and politics in Europe, who are horrified by what happened I said to them it really doesn't matter. Ron DeSantis is not going to lose a single vote, because he had a bad announcement. That said, I mean, what the hell. People should be fired for that. On the right side. He raised $8 million in 24 hours, 8 million. So the announcement may have gone really badly, but $8 million in one that's your entire campaign for Prime Minister, all the parties is what he did in one day. I'm really nervous about the culture war stuff, because it will get him elected. If he's the nominee culture war. At this moment, talking about how people are being ignored or forgotten. I don't know what's happening here in Ireland. I know what's happening in UK in the US, but the sense that you can no longer say what you think or what you feel. I felt that way. I had to be careful. And eventually I got, I got sick. And when I didn't die, I realized I can say anything I want. It doesn't actually matter. But they're academics who don't want to voice a right of center point of view in a left of center university, because they won't get tenure. They'll go through the American universities from all the way from Boston down south and go all the way west to California. Not many conservatives in academia with tenure. And that's not by accident. There's a reason for that. There's not that many students that feel comfortable joining college Republicans. So is there a market for this. Absolutely. Is it good for the country? No way. And I say this to those who want to wage this kind of campaign. You will wreck your country if you do I, if I identify you as a white male, and I go back to something that you all did the Catholic and process. This country is fraught with that. It's what makes people so nervous about Brexit. And the Irish agreement and it's so fascinating to me because I'm an outsider. And everyone I talked to the moment I've been with them for 10 minutes they tell me, we haven't really, really. In fact, I'm going to ask you. Have you really solved the Irish issue. I did not know this I thought this piece I thought everyone now gets along. They spend time in the north. They're not killing each other anymore, but they don't love each other. They don't like each other. They don't respect each other. I'm a cab ride to from the airport to Belfast. I had a Protestant cab driver tell me in explicit detail what had happened to his family and it's horrific. In fact, I had a Catholic cab driver tell me what had happened to his family by the process. There was so much death and so much violence and so much ugliness. And it wasn't always this way. But once it gets into your system, you never get it out. Don't go woke. I would rather lose a campaign than lose a country. You're standing up. When people ask questions sitting down, it's easy. When they ask a question standing up. I know, but I'm thankful because in this country, you don't have guns like we do, because if they stand up in America, I'm waiting for something worse to happen. I'm not going to throw the mic at you. So this is so that people at the back can see my name is barry called from the director of research here at the Institute. So thanks a lot for being with us. The Biden administration has provided enormous support to Ukraine following Russians invasion of that country. And can you say anything about what any candidate or party might say with respect to relations with Ukraine and Russia given the president's president jobs proximity to the Kremlin in the past. Yes, in advance of any election. Thanks. Great question. And here's where the reporting isn't really accurate. And I'll give you an example. Republicans want an accounting. I mean, whenever I say Republican, I'm using it from the American perspective. Republicans want an accounting where the money's going, because it's a lot. First thing you need to know is of the 75 billion that's been spent 65 has gone to American companies, American efforts, they're not dumping money into Ukraine. So it is used to purchase the weapons that Ukraine uses to defend itself. Then you've done so second thing is that Donald Trump says it's been 170 billion dollars his numbers aren't right. Mr President, wherever your camera is I think is right there, your numbers aren't right. If you can't even know that number. What the hell did you do over the last seven years didn't you learn something from it. Number three, he did. Trump did refuse to say that he wants Ukrainian victory. There are about 221 House Republicans. At least 200 of them would look you straight in the eye and say, we want a Ukrainian victory. Why there's some who don't a few, and they're going to be highlighted they're going to be celebrated by those who are trying to cause dissent. There are a few. And I remind people that Donald Trump is telling the world that Putin was the most amazing global leader the most, the most admirable individual how smart he is to invade Ukraine. I say this whenever I can. I know that some people are watching. Just go back to the video, because you can't change a video, you can get your numbers wrong. You can deny that you assaulted someone, you can say that you're being a victim. It's in right writing, it's on the record, it's in video, Donald Trump said that Putin is brilliant. No, he's not. He's a mass murderer. What he's doing Ukraine is a disgrace is a crime against humanity. I know there's specific definitions of genocide. So I don't use that word. But he's trying to inflict as much pain and suffering on an independent sovereign nation as he possibly can, and that would be a message to every European. He would do it to Ukraine. And he did it to Georgia. He's done it to other countries. He'll do it to yours. If you're not careful. I do not blame Russia. I blame Vladimir Putin. And 72% of Americans support Biden's efforts. 17% of Americans oppose it. And the rest don't pay attention or undecided. That number will drop into the mid 60s by the end of this year, because Americans don't like protracted conflict and in the end they get tired. And they're going to start to say the money should be spent here and not there again, not knowing that it's actually being spent in the US. And Zelensky said I don't need a plane. I need, I need weapons. It wasn't quite Churchillian, but it's pretty damn close. And if there's one human being if you ask me who's the human being I want to meet most. It's him. And I know some people can introduce us the problem is I would just break down in front of him because he's such a hero to me. Although he does need to change his outfit from time to time. We get the point that he wears the green I just hope that he's got 28 of them. And it's not the same one every single day. Okay. Hannah DC communication director and I'm interested in your perspective on how AI is going to impact polling. How about the impact of AI on life. We're not going to know whether it's they've done it to me. There's a presentation by the person I think is the most brilliant at trying to warn us of the potential threat. He was in the social dilemma. Tristan Harris he was originally an ethicist for Google. And now he leads an organization that's dedicated to studying these issues. They created an AI of me with my voice and my face saying the most ridiculous stuff. And you actually can't tell the difference. Now maybe it is me maybe I am saying the most ridiculous stuff. But by this time next year we're not going to know whether Donald Trump actually said something. His stuff often sounds like it was 10 years ago. He sounded like he was being AI and that's a real problem. Because we already don't know what to trust. And I know from the research that we did that the people who are most likely to believe in conspiracy theories are most likely to be on the web are most likely to be sharing posts on the web on average, more than three a week. I'm most likely to believe that COVID wasn't real least likely to wear a mask least likely to be vaccinated. All the things that we don't want in life that we don't want for society. It's all wrapped together and a AI is going to turbo charge that. So I am very much afraid of what it does to the electoral process. You can't distinguish fact from fiction. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. When your kids don't talk to you anymore. When you I don't know who's got who's got kids between the ages of say 10 and 18. It's warping social media right now is warping their brains. It's making them uncommunicative. It's changing their sleep patterns it's changing their health. It's having so much of an impact on their condition as human beings and yet the politicians do nothing about it, because they're afraid to do something wrong. Well, we're losing in America. We're, I don't know if the numbers are appropriate, but we're losing thousands of kids a day who go over the edge, who start to get on their cell phones at 11pm at night will the covers over their heads, and are on social media for the next two hours. Get up at 530 in the morning, just to see how many likes they got the night before where they actually cannot talk to their teachers they cannot talk to each other, they have to do it through their phones. On a little day, we lose another set of them, and no one's doing anything about it. It angers me more than just about anything. Okay, I'm really depressing. Yeah, I mean, well this one's not going to get any better. We have a question. I'm depressing myself. Somebody think of an optimistic question for the last one and we'll hopefully any afternoon on a high note. This is a question from ethnomic Dermot who is an IEA member. She asks, could you please share your thoughts on the position of the rights of women in the United States in the wake of the repeal of Roe versus Wade. Are women more likely to turn out in large numbers, numbers to vote for Democratic candidates. Yes they are. We saw this in 2022. The turnout was significant among younger women. 18 and 29 year olds don't vote in off your elections midterm elections, but they came out this time Republicans were supposed to win a whole lot of seats and a lot of suburbs. There was the people guessing they would gain 15 and 20 seats and have 15 to 20 seat majority in Congress, the majority turned out to be fine. And it was a dismal success. There's no more people voted Republican the Democrat Republicans got 51% in the house races. Democrats 48. But it should have been much wider and the difference was both abortion and Trump and younger voters in particular female voters in particular said this is not what I want. Issues do matter. And arguably, it will be very hard for Republican. Sanison Florida. But our legislation you have six weeks to have that decision about abortion. And there are a whole lot of Republican women who are furious. Does it help you get the nomination. Absolutely. Does it hurt you if not kill you in the general election. Absolutely. And what is happening in the Republican by the way, Democrats don't handle this issue that well either, because you got legislation that supported by the House that allows abortion and virtually any circumstance up to any point of the pregnancy. Americans don't want that either. There's a common ground rape incest, the life of the mother, and at a certain point which is around 20 weeks. The public believes that that's the common ground anything later than that. And it becomes a serious moral issue. Anything that limits it even more becomes a serious health issue, and a woman's rights issue. So there is that common ground. Democrats in the house went way beyond that in their legislation Republicans and response went right beyond that common sense position. And if Republicans don't find a more common ground, it's going to hurt them. Next, next November. Okay, I have a question in the back here. And then. Yeah. Yes, in the back here. Yeah. There's a lot of money to do. You should unionize my care. There should be a union for my carriers and public. I think so I was going to ask that but I have to restrict to one question don't I. Paul Turpin. I'm a member of the Institute, I can hang around boardrooms now but way back I suppose I did degrees in economics. I'm not long after that. And I don't know if it was Carter I know a Clinton talked about it's the economy stupid. So I'm saying, I'm wondering, have things changed dramatically because in your opening remarks, you refer to the fact that the economy is homing. Not homing. No, it's better now than it was. It's not homing, but the Democrats were not punished for inflation. They Republicans failed to pick up the house and failed to pick up the Senate, only picked up a few C's maybe 10 C's in the house. Okay, no, I think it's but it's I'm just wondering is the economy so strong and one thing that I would that occurs obviously is it appears that there's a greater level of inequality. You know, for example, if Jeff Bezos was to relocate to Ireland, our average incomes would rise dramatically, but I wouldn't feel any better about it. And I'm wondering is that's what you know is the inequality one of the big differences when you have an economy that's going reasonably well, and yet you have 73% of people mad as hell. And that issue is arguably the number one issue among Democrats in community quality. And that's why the business community is suffering right now, an image deterioration, even though so many people are employed. The public does not evaluate the economy by employment as it once did. The public evaluates the economy by affordability, and things are just not affordable for the middle class anymore. And so in the US, it's petrol, and it's food. Over here, it's housing. And young people in their 30s, can I even afford to own their own home. The feeling is that the rich get richer, the poor stay poor, and the middle class is slipping. And that's creating much of the anger up until 2016 those people voted Democrat. In 2016 a whole lot of working class voters white working class switched to the Republican Party switched and Donald Trump, not the Republican Party is specifically voted for Trump, they felt ignored, they felt forgotten, and even felt betrayed. And that and they were really angry because Barack Obama had a program for New York City, he had a program for Philadelphia, for Atlanta, for Chicago. They had no program for Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, the angriest people in America right now are in the Rust Belt, or in rural areas where they see all the programs and all the benefits and everything. Going to the biggest cities in America, and they see nothing coming to them. No hope no opportunity. And a lot of those people who had voted Democrat up to that point switch union membership was overwhelmingly Democratic until 2016. And in fact, some of the unions would not endorse because they did not want to cause an uprising among their own membership. When you go to a Trump rally now which I do attend. It's filled with union members, working class voters that will tell you the voted Democrat until 2016, and then stay with Trump. So yes, income inequality is significant. It's a reason why people do not feel better off, even though the numbers have improved. And frankly, every Thanksgiving and every Christmas, when it becomes impossible to put the food on the table that you want, or you can't afford to drive to your sister's house two hours away because the gas is too expensive. And that made voters furious. And they did blame the Biden administration. But then you have to ask yourself, why didn't more Republicans win in 2022. And the answer abortion and Donald Trump. Thank you. I'm a member of the Institute, and I'm going to take you back down the pessimistic road again. And talk about, well, I suppose, NATO and Ukraine more. One of the one of the fears of many member states is that the US would withdraw from NATO with the Trump reelection coming back. Bearing in mind the capacity of America to support Ukraine is that much greater than any of the European member states to support it, and the industrial base that's based in America as against what's based in Europe. How real do you think this threat is for Donald Trump's withdrawal from NATO. I can't imagine it but I couldn't imagine January 6. I couldn't imagine election night 2020. I've learned not to say never, because things that were impossible have now happened, and not in the positive way in the negative way. There would be so much opposition in Congress by Republicans and Democrats alike that what he could end up doing is slashing the budget the contribution as he did with the United Nations. But actually leaving a banning banning NATO I can't. It's not conceivable, but breaking into the capital. I think I was interviewed by Canadian broadcasting and the reporter kept pushing me pushing me prodding me poking me. She got what she wanted. It was not my America. January 6 was so embarrassing. And so inexcusable. And I'm glad that those people are not being held accountable. Thank God, I live in a country where you break the law. You try to upset. It's okay to upset the political systems okay to protest. It's even welcomed. Did you try to bring down the government. I'm glad that those people held accountable for it. We have a question from zoom and then we'll, then we'll come here. We have a question from Nora Owen, IEA board member will border control slash migration from Mexico be a major electoral issue. Yes. And it will be because it's going to get violent. And I'm glad that those people are pushing harder and harder. The expected huge wave that we thought would come when the laws changed did not happen. But there are many in the Democratic Party that don't believe that that border should be adhered to. And that's a culture war component. There really is a difference between Republicans and Democrats immigration. Build, I'll give you, and I'll give you the numbers and the components to it. Build some sort of barrier where it makes sense. Number one. Number two, immediately accept the dream act for kids who are brought to this country. They're no fault of their own. And third, make legal immigration easier to achieve the combination of those three, which seems to make sense is 80% support. I mean, it's remarkable. However, right across the channel or whatever, what is the sea I receive. Britain just yesterday they announced they've got the highest level of immigration. Even labor voters are angry at this. Actually, let me rephrase that all voters are angry at this, because it's not the way that we want the world to move. We want it to be orderly. We want it to be legal. We want integration. Clearly what happened in France was not a success. You can't tell me that the immigration to France strengthened the French society, the French culture, the French economy, because those people never integrated. And now you have way too much violence, way too much division, and their whole communities where it's just immigrants. That's not the way it's supposed to be. It may not be a melting pot. It may not be a mixing pot. But there has to be acceptance. And there has to be understanding and empathy. And it has not happened in that country. And you don't want that here either. Good afternoon and a rider member of the Institute and just listening to the talk and trying to bring us back to the positive. I'm reminded of Barack Obama's campaign on the team of hope. What gives you hope for the future. I have certain, but I used to say I don't have any. And then I realized in my audience really don't want to hear that so I just made stuff up. I just want to say that and my friends all think it's funny, like they make fun of me. I have a comedian friend John Cleese from Monty Python. And he always when he, when he calls he'll say you're still alive you haven't killed yourself yet. I said I haven't found rope that's cheap enough so give me time. I have some students in some universities that are absolutely mind blowing we good. I teach more than anything else that I do I do lectures like this because I want to see Dublin. I love Ireland I worked here 10 years ago, eight years ago for RTE on on the election. I have some students across the globe. That will hopefully be allowed to save their country their continent. The African leadership university brings together over 40 countries in one place. About 1500 students there. And they all work together they all lift each other up their poor. They have limited resources. The university is an oasis of knowledge in a continent that is still at war with each other. The economies are growing. There's an entrepreneurial spirit that is uplifting and the sense of communities truly inspiring better than us better than here, better than the West. It allows me to realize that it actually does take a village to raise a child. I ridiculed this I made fun of this I be say no it doesn't take a village it takes two good parents. And now I realize I was wrong. So this is an example of acknowledging it. You take that university which is in Mauritius and Rwanda you take that university and apply it globally. And we can get over this, because they're not woke, and they aren't partisan, and they aren't political, because they're trying to survive. And we help them survive and we will deserve a place on this planet. And if they survive they will thrive, and they will bring peace and understanding and empathy to all of us. They give me hope. I hope that not much else does. We have time for one last question hopefully it's a hopeful one. No I just did all my hope. I know right so you're going to have to you're going to have to circle back. I can do two minutes or hope that's all I got. We've got to know this is not a hopeful question so Dara Loller senior researcher here at the IAA. I'm wondering and I'm interested in who you think might possibly be in the running to be the vice presidential nominee for president or for presidential run for Donald Trump. And could you possibly see say somebody like Marjorie Taylor green on the ballot in that case. By the way, that microphone won't pick it up, but they were grown some people sitting. I could see Kerry Lake who ran for governor in Arizona. I could see Christie know who is the current governor of South Dakota I believe Donald Trump will choose a woman. And, and it's going to be very interesting to see who runs with him. I don't have a good answer because he doesn't have a good answer. I'm a pollster, in addition to all the stuff that I do so it's based on information is based on research is based on knowledge. There's nothing to indicate because it could be any person. It was not going to be Mike Pence it was going to be Chris Christie at one point, but then Trump changed his mind. I wonder does he have one. It was a joke by the way that did not go over well. I think that you all are so afraid of what could happen that that nothing's funny about it. I don't know because whatever he's thinking now will not be what it is a year from now. And I think we'll have to leave it there. Thank you very much, Frank for for joining us and thank you to the audience. I would pull them to see who's more depressed now. I thought you might turn it into a focus group, but I'm not going to do that. So thank you to people who joined in person and the people who joined on zoom and and for you for joining us.