 This is Covering the Spread part of the FanDuel podcast network. A jam-packed show for you today on this Tuesday. Of course, our first look at NFL week, number three coming up later on a recap of week two. We've got Brandon Gadoula on, talk about the president's cup and golf and betting on that. But of course it's Tuesday, which means K-Props with pitching ninja Rob Friedman will get his thoughts on all those later on today. This is Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Join here by Rob Friedman. Check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja. You can find all of his fantastic work at Fox, MLB, Nessun and Peacock. Rob, only about two weeks left in the regular season. It is getting down to the nitty gritty here. How you doing today? I'm doing great. How are you? I'm delightful. I'm excited for some baseball. My twins are toast. So I can just kind of sit back and enjoy baseball. And honestly, like it's fun when your team's in it, but I like having the freedom to just ignore the twins and sit back and watch some fun pitchers. And I think we get that for tonight too. So I'm ecstatic about what we're gonna see the next couple of weeks. You make a really good point there. I think detaching yourself from your team and enjoying the game is, that's kind of the way I approach everything. So I don't root for anybody. I root for pitchers. And it makes it really enjoyable for me. I don't get, you know, I get mad at individual situations or pick or something, but, you know, not having a team, having a team or being too close to you, especially when it blinds you to everything else. So I kind of like that too. Yeah. And I would prefer they were in it, but honestly, whenever I'm not gonna complain too much about all of that. Now the problem that we usually have, we have for today Rob is usually what we do is, I'll ask you for your strikeout props. You'll give me your recommendations. And then I'll ask you about one that I've got. We did get Jordan Montgomery last week at six plus, but I've got nothing today. I looked at every strikeout prop on the board of Fandral Sportsbook and I saw nothing. So I have to lean on you for this one because otherwise I'm just hitting back and hanging out. So when you look at the board for today, where are you seeing value in the strikeout props for tonight? First, I want to say I'm disappointed because every time I'm on, I hear a K prop that I really didn't appreciate as much as you did. And then I look into it, I'm like, you know, he's onto something. So the fact that you didn't see anything and I have three. Yeah. Yeah, I'm a little bit, but no, I'm very comfortable with my three. Yeah. The key thing, the good thing is that I didn't look at the games before 705 because I tried to like double dip my work. I'm looking at the DFS main slate. So I don't look at the early games. It sounds like you've got some action on those. So I think despite the fact I found nothing, that doesn't mean that I'm against these ones because they sound pretty fun. Good. Well, I have a three leg parley with the same game parley of Brian Beyo for five Ks or more, Nick Lodolo for seven Ks or more. And then in the night cap will go Luis Castillo for eight Ks or more. I think that that Beyo versus Lodolo matchup, just like a, you know, we're talking about having, you know, being able to root for whatever, that from a matchup perspective, two really fun guys is super intriguing. Now, Beyo, I want to talk about him first. We'll talk about Lodolo is super exciting in a second, but Beyo is a guy who combines like enough strikeouts, but also kills some worms. And that's a really tough combination. It seems like, especially for a young guy, what allows him to kind of tap into both those skills simultaneous? I think it's a combination of his, I mean, that's sinker changeup combo. His slider's been getting, I mean, getting some pretty good movement, but I think that sinker slot, obviously sinker changeup, you're going to pound the ball into the ground, but he gets enough movement on it. Sometimes the miss bats and the changeup, especially since his mirrors is sinker, he's able to at least fool folks with velocity. So he's got a really good changeup, obviously. I mean, people have made comparisons with Pedro and he thinks he's clicking with him. His last few outings, like he's been clicking, he's leaning on the veteran pitchers to learn stuff. I like him. He's starting to get a little bit more on the case side. I like what he's about. I think he's going to be an exciting pitcher for years. Yeah, and that's a good staff to learn from too. There are a lot of smart guys there who you can lean on for sure. Now, let's talk about Lidolo. It's been a rough year for the Reds, obviously, but he's been the exception in his 16 starts, which is a big sample, by the way. That is a big sample, 30% strikeout rate. Tough matchup, though, with the Red Sox, not a big strikeout team. What gives you confidence in him being able to navigate his way around that really tough lineup? I think it's just his pure stuff, that curve ball slider, whatever he calls it, I think it's just a let's go breaking ball. Is one of the low key, the filthiest pitches in the major leagues, it ends up behind a hitter, I think more than any other pitch in baseball for a strikeout, so he's like, I don't think he's the ordinary guy to go up against. I know the Red Sox lineup is tough, but seeing him is something different and that pitch looks like a strike for a long way and ends up often behind hitters. Yeah, and he's been a delight. So no objections, neither does for me again. They're not on the games that I analyzed. So you got a Bayon over four and a half at minus 118, Ladolo on a single leg minus 156. Do you pair them with the Castillo over seven and a half that gets you to plus 492 for the three leg parlay there and Castillo's facing off with Oakland. You were talking about that before he came on the air about his most recent start against Oakland and obviously the results were not there, but what do you see that gives you confidence in the bounce back here for Castillo the second time around? I liked his last few outings. I think he was electric and I also, the fact that Gilbert just dominated yesterday, I think he will feed off some of that and I just, I like Castillo generally. Yeah, I mean, I just do. I mean, he's been fun and I think it's been encouraging to see that translate to the Mariners. Can we talk about this with Jordan Montgomery a bit where you change teams, get a different set of eyes in there. They, I mean, outside of recent, they still let Castillo be Castillo. He's going deep in games, a bit of a different pitch mix. He's had a couple more, a couple more two-seamers in there as past eight starts with the Mariners, but honestly for him, I don't think that's a bad thing. Yeah, no, I agree. And I think that staff is actually a very competitive staff. I mean, if you look at it, Mariners have a crap load of pitching. So I think having guys like, you know, you see one, they won't try to outdo each other. Good pitching staff does that. And I think having Castillo follow up somebody, you know, that angry outing by Gilbert just challenges him because Castillo pitches on a motion too. And I kind of, you know, I think he wants to one up Gilbert. I think he wants to one up Gilbert, but I also think he just wants to be on the mound. And that's encouraging for me at this point in the year where they're basically locked into playoffs. They kind of know where they're going to be. They're still letting him go about a hundred pitches per start. And it's not 115, 190, you know what he's typically going, but like it's still very long. So you pair those three together plus 492 for that one. Yeah. And, you know, obviously this is a tough time of year because you don't know. I've been burned recently by guys getting pulled early. You know, who knows, maybe Castillo have an outing like he did the other day where he's just keying everybody at the beginning of the game. You don't have to worry about it. Yeah. It's the fourth inning he's done. He already got those eight strikeouts. So I think that those are pretty fun. I feel better about this slate now. Having talked to you, I think that there are enough strikeouts out there for me to feel pretty good about it. But again, check out Brian Beyo, Nicoladolo and Louise Castillo. And make sure you check out Rob Freeman as well. Over on Twitter at pitching Ninja Rob. I hope the strikeouts are in abundance for you for tonight specifically with that Red Sox versus Reds game. I think that's going to be a fun one to watch. Castillo always in the light as well. Enjoy Charlie Morton is tonight too. I know he's one of your favorites as well. I almost picked him. Yep. Have a blast watching some baseball for tonight Rob. Thanks. Great as always Jim. Alrighty. Again, check out Rob Freeman on Twitter at pitching Ninja and check out his work at MLB, Nessun, Fox and Peacock as well. And check him out here every Tuesday as well for the next couple of weeks as well. We're going to get to Brandon Godulli to talk about some Presidents Cup from a golf betting perspective in a just one segment first. Big news, Fandall has an all new mobile gaming app, Fandall Face Off. Fandall Face Off is where you compete in quick fun games against other real people for real cash. It is all sorts of games you're familiar with like a homerun Derby, Wheel of Fortune, The Pattenac can be kicking game and so much more. Contests are action packed and last between two to five minutes so you can play on your couch, waiting in line during a commercial break wherever and on your schedule. Plus you can practice for free anytime whether it be head to head, multiplayer or large tournaments. Fandall Face Off has something for you. Plus in most contests we've matched up against players of similar skill levels so you are never totally over matched even as a beginner. Fandall Face Off is tied to your Fandall account and wallet so you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sports book winnings in the app. Visit Fandall.com slash Face Off or download the Fandall Face Off app in the Apple App Store today to get in the game, age and location, restrictions apply, void for prohibited. See Fandall.com slash Face Off for terms and conditions. We got some golf back on the menu so let's bring Brandon Gendula back into our lives to talk about that. It is the President's Cup for this week in Brandon and because there's no DFS for this typically I don't know a lot about the President's Cup. My like golf focus is hyper focused on the DFS side of things. So I need you to educate me about this week but first though, we haven't had you on covering the spread in a bit because golf had a weird schedule. How are you doing? Good, good. Yeah, I was a bit busy last week when I talked about the Fortinet and did the heat check podcast solo which is always a bit of a grind because I learned how much of the hosting duties you do, which is all of them. But it's all about it. Anyone who did this point, baby. Anyone who did listen, hopefully took some action on Max Homa. Yeah, Max Homa, a thrilling win got out to that big lead early on and then used some witchcraft to win the thing on Sunday as well. Homa just seems like one of the best dudes on the tour so I was delighted when he does well. Now I got to ask you about the President's Cup because I know in theory what it is. I know it's like team play. I know it's the US versus the world but like what is the actual format for the President's Cup and what does that format do from a betting perspective? Yeah, so it's basically the Ryder Cup. The key difference is that just who's in it. It's the United States is in both of them as we probably all know, but the distinction here for the President's Cup is that it is the US versus the world minus Europe. There's a much newer event started in 1994. The host course alternates between the US and elsewhere in the world started in the US for the first two years but then has alternated since then. This year it's in Quail Hollow and Charlotte. It's a course that I know we're all probably somewhat familiar with at least in terms of hearing the name. It's a long par 71 and one of the aspects of a Ryder Cup, President's Cup is course selection and trying to figure out how best to pick the right course for your team. Unsurprisingly, the US picked a long course. They have a lot of long hitters and I'll break down sort of the general team strength a little bit later, but yeah, it's gonna be a course that benefits the US. Now, as far as the format itself, teams do play in team events, alternate shot or four sums and then also best ball formats or four ball. So we'll get two days each of those and then on Sunday we get 12 singles matches. The way that you accrue points is if you win your match, you get a point. If you tie your match or have it, you get half a point and first a 15 and a half will win. And yeah, it's basically, it's pretty simple. So you're just basically looking at team strength. Is that a fair way to look at it or do you need to like view it some way different? So I looked at team play for the Ryder Cup in detail last year and tried to look at team similarity and long-term stroke scheme numbers and granular stroke scheme numbers and like the better T-degree golfers have advantages and it all sort of boils down to the better golfers or the better golfers. And if you can, you want better T-degree golfers and that's basically the US in this event. So it kind of is what it is. I think that there's a mentality that match play comes down to putting and it's important, but if you're playing with other golfers and you both play similar styles, that's gonna help in theory, but also if you play, if you're getting two greens in regulation, gaining strokes T-degree, you're more likely to win. So that's basically what it comes down to. So you said this favor is the US and the betting odds reflect that. USA minus 700, a fan dual sports book, international is plus 750, draw is 20 to one. That's actually an important number to have in mind, honestly, that does impact the way you wanna bet things in general. So you wanna keep that in mind with the draw. Is there any value for you in that market? Is it properly reflecting how good the US is or are you staying away from it? I think it's really close. These things are really hard to predict. Now we're not looking at like a spread here, like a point spread in terms of, we're just looking at outright. And it's important that I lay out how dominant the US has been. Since 1994, we've had 13 presidents cups, the US 11-1-1, the lone international win, came in 1998 at Royal Melbourne. The tie came in 2003, ended in darkness, that was in South Africa. So in the US, the US is seven and oh. Again, they hosted the first two. Only one home win for the US was closer than three points. Again, it's a kind of a tight spread of points, like a dispersion, but that's a pretty solid margin. So if you base it off of history, the US is the obvious play and just about any other way you slice it too. If you look at the true stroke-skinned averages for golfers available at Data Golf over the past year, the US averages a plus 1.54, which is the third weakest team in US history. However, it's within a 10th of a shot of being like an average US team. So it's not that big of a deal. For the internationals, there are a plus 0.91, which is more than half a shot worse on average than the US team. It's the second worst international team ever, within a 10th of a shot of being sort of average. We only have the 14th iteration of it, so it's kind of tight, but it's pretty lopsided from that regard. Additionally, we'll say the global golf landscape has hurt the international team pretty heavily. Why would that be Brandon? Expand. We're gonna have eight of the 12 internationals making their debut, so their veterans are Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, and then Sung-Jee MNC Wukim have each played one. So an experience gap for the international side to overcome. The US still does have six rookies, but for the president, Scott does include Scotty Schaeffler, world number one, Colin Morkawa, multiple major winner. Max Homa, who's just like unstoppable right now. Billy Horschel, who's won the WC match play. Cameron Young, who has two top threes at majors and Sam Burns, four PGA tour wins. So, again, it's tough. Now I did my best to model this out, looking at stroke skiing averages and how that correlates to points scored and then the range of outcomes. And I have, so we need the international team to be about 12% likely to win. I have them around 20% likely to win. So the model, again, which went back and accurately would have predicted pretty well. The results here within the point margins, but I don't think I'm quite, maybe like a quarter unit for some fun, but if you're really trying to put down something large, I cannot recommend betting the international side because they're such a detriment, just based on overall strength, but also the course fit. Yeah, I saw data golf tweeting out their numbers yesterday and I think that they were pretty similar to yours in terms of like, they might have had international actually a bit higher. I think it was like 24%, but I also could be misremembered from a single tweet that I read. So I had it at 24% and then I tried to factor in the host advantage. There's a pretty big host advantage, so somewhere around there, yeah. Okay, that makes sense. So probably not betting into the USA versus international market unless you want some fun on the international side, but we do have other markets available depending on the states. I know New York is more limited. So if you're listening to New York, sorry. But other states do have other props up for this event. Any value for you in those? Yeah, so it's basically like point scores. So if you leave the US in points, international in points, if you're like a captain's choice or a wild card, you can be, there's markets for that. But if you look at the overall points leaders, we have 18, because we've had some ties over these. 16 of those 18 played in five matches. So you kind of want volume. They averaged a good stroke skiing number of 1.68. Just one golfer was below 0.75. The guys who were below 0.75 this year, Sebastian Munoz, K.H. Lee, Sewell Kim, Cameron Davis, Kevin Kisner, Ju Young Kim, and Christian Bezadenhote. So yeah, that's six of seven of those guys on the international team. 11 of the 18 ranked top 10 in stroke skiing average for, you know, among the president's cup teams. The top five this year, I won't list all of them. Scotty Schaeffler, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Xander Schaufle, and Sung J.M., a name that I'll come back to in just a bit. 11 of them also were top 10 in official World Golf rankings points entering the president's cup. So again, we're kind of seeing more often than not, it's the better golfers, because you want to put out your better golfers to play more. And we've actually seen the international side, which has historically less depth, filter more of their volume to the top, their best golfers. Not going to read like, it's pretty marginal, but you know, we see that the U.S. much more willing to rely on their depth. So if you're looking at this market, just keep that in mind, especially with the veterans. We only have four veterans for the international side. So that's kind of bringing me back to Sung J.M. Sung J.M. is a very good golfer. He is top five this year. In true strokes gained average, according to data golf, he has played in a president's cup. He went three one and one in 2019 for three and a half points to tie for the points lead back in 2019. He, you know, again, I think people can get caught up in match player results and past performance at president's cups or Ryder cups. And I don't know if that's very predictive, but he did beat Gary Woodland four and three in singles and that's pretty dominant. So Sung J.M. has what it takes to see as much volume as he can be kind of treated as the number one guy. So I think him to lead the international side in points that was plus 600, it's now plus 500, but also to lead outright in points is plus 1800. I think that's a pretty good value bet. Billy Horschel, I think stands out as like a potential wild card point score, which is how it's listed on Fandall Sportsbook, plus 1400. Captain's picks can still see plenty of volume in this setup. So that's important. It's not just the qualifiers and then the captain's picks are all, you know, afterthoughts. And again, with the international side's tendency to focus more on the top of their lineup, we've seen 11 of 16 wild card point leaders come from the US team, which has more depth. It's willing to use more of that depth. Horschel, the kind of guy who probably is gonna get, you know, four matches, if not five. Just a note on that, we will not get Thursday lineups and matches until Wednesday afternoon. So be aware, be ready to pounce on that, depending on who, you know, for sure is getting a match. But he's also played quail hollow kind of well, if you care about the past decade, T7, T29 and a missed cut, but I think he stands out at plus 1400. And then just one final one, top overall score, Scotty Schaeffler plus 700. Those are like, those, those resemble sort of heavy favorite odds in like a full field. Yeah. He should get plenty of volume. He's the top golfer in the world by OWGR, by, you know, total stroke skiing average. He should be like a long-term anchor for the US side, both in Ryder Cups and Presidents Cups. Great match play player. We've seen that from him. He's got Ryder Cup experience already. Good course fit, does it all. And 72% of points leaders came from the host side. So a lot goes in his favor. If you're looking for something maybe a little bit shorter than 14, you know, 14 to one or 18 to one. With Sungjae, you mentioned value potential in both sides. Given the international tendency to go with a more concentrated approach, do you think that the 18 to one is the preferred market for Sungjae for total points scored? I mean, I think it's totally fine to go that route. Yeah. The biggest issue is he might play a lot, but even though he's a great golfer, they might not score enough points, you know, in his forearms and foreballs. But it's kind of up to you from a risk standpoint. I think he makes sense for both. I think you probably bet both and kind of hedge a little bit in that regard. But again, it's, you know, you want to have fun with something like this. And, you know, but the reality is the US is such a realistic, heavy favorite. Yeah. And we know that a lot of the points scores, you know, from the overall standpoint come from the host side, the winning side. So just, you know, keep that in mind. But Sungjae, I think is in the best spot for the international team. Hey, man, written for Sungjae, there are worse scenarios than that. You're talking about having fun. That sounds fun to me. I know it's written against the US, but like it's Sungjae in, so I can make a leeway there. That's fine. Yeah. I mean, there's a lot to like on the international sides. They've just been kind of picked apart a little bit, which is unfortunate, but Sungjae and maybe a little bit of Corey Connors, if you really want to get wild if you're looking for Teter Green game, but I didn't want to recommend him fully. That was kind of just a you and me thing. We'll probably get there. Love Corey Connors. All right. That is Brandon Gadoula. Check him out on Twitter. Akadoula13 is senior managing editor of Number Fire. You can also find his PGA DFS takes on the heat check fantasy podcast. Love and sprinkled in throughout the fall. Talk some golf as well. Brandon, enjoy the president's cup. Good luck to you. And I'll talk to you again Thursday for some NFL DFS. You had best of luck tonight with all your strikeout props. And best of luck this week. I have none. As we discussed it wrong, I've got nothing. I have one money line, but I'm sweating. We'll see how that goes. But yeah, I'm all good. I haven't said sweating NFL week three. So we'll talk about that right now. Take our first look there again. Check out Brandon on Twitter at Gadoula13. Let's dive in now to our week three NFL first look and go through what my numbers are saying about the opening lines here for week number three. And there is some value, I think, specifically looking at some spreads here. There are a couple of money lines I like and then one total I'm betting. Don't know the model for that, but I will talk about that later on. The first one and probably the one I like the most from a spread perspective is the Steelers plus five and a half. I was five a fan duel this morning has lengthened to five and a half. So I'm probably on the wrong side of this one, but I'm showing value there and a bit of value in the money line too, plus 184. But I wanna go with the spread here. I've got the Browns favor by 1.97 points in this game, even with TJ Watt being out. And the reason I'm taking the points here is because I expect this to be a very low scoring game. The total does say that as well, total for this game is 38 and a half, justifiably so. I'm expecting a low scoring game. It's tougher to win by five and a half points when there are fewer points scored overall. The Steelers did look pretty bad Sunday, but I respect the Patriots defense quite a bit. I think that that is explainable. The Browns struggled a bit too. Obviously let up a couple touchdowns were there within the past 80 or so seconds. I think the one thing that concerns me most with betting plus five and a half here is that the Browns running game should be really good here. Nick Chubb, Cream Hunt, both those guys tremendous. And the Steelers do struggle there for sure. Having Watt out definitely does not help that at all, but it's five and a half. It's a low scoring game. I think it's a Jacoby Reset team that's here by five and a half. I think I'd rather go with the Steelers side of this. I have faith in Mike Tomlin, so I do like the Steelers plus five and a half and we'll lock that one in right now. My numbers like the Cardinals plus four, I've got this as the Rams by 0.98. Now I was joking on Twitter on Sunday when the Cardinals were down by 20, whatever it was points, that I was gonna put in a Vibes meter within my model to prevent myself from ever betting the Cardinals ever again, then they came back. I'm kind of back in. And now I'm not sure if I can fully recommend this one to you because the Cardinals have looked awful, but it's reassuring to me that the Rams have had the issues of their own too. They almost said Atlanta win that game. Atlanta was driving. They were in scoring position late in that game after coming back. I think I love Marcus Mario to full respect to him, but Kyler's probably better than the Atlanta offense right now. This game is in Arizona. They might get Rondale more back this week. So we'll see, I am betting this one, but not necessarily recommending you do the same. Kind of a do as I say, not as I do type situation. I'm gonna take it. I understand if you don't want to. I think my numbers are probably still too high on the Cardinals, but I think if there's enough there, I will bet it. So for me plus four on the Cardinals is totally fine. I don't blame you if you don't wanna go there yourself. The Denver Moneyline is showing value for me right now. That's at minus 102 at Vandal Sportsbook. I have Denver favored in this game by 1.78 points. That is with a bump up to the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo quarterback. I like Trey Lance a lot and I was excited for him to play, but there was a lot of uncertainty baked into my numbers because we hadn't seen Trey Lance at quarterback. There was also no George Kittle. So when you give me more certainty with Garoppolo, I kind of don't have a lot of choice, but to bump up the passing efficiency on this team. They will likely get Kittle back this week. They got IU, they got Debo Samuel. That's a lot of good pieces. So I do have the 49ers bumped up with Garoppolo in there, but I just can't get to this one being with the 49ers favor. Denver did struggle last week. They had a hideous success, right? But they didn't have KJ Hamler in that game. Jerry Judy came out mid game. Sounds like Judy should be good to go here. Sounds like they were saying you was day to day. And if they can't go, at least they've got the full week to plan around those absence versus losing hit mid game. It doesn't feel good to that Denver after how they played this past week. But I think this number moved too much after the Lance news with how Denver played in week two. I think it's an overreaction line to what we saw in week two with the Lance injury with the Broncos struggling. I think there is value in the Broncos money line. So I'll take them minus 102. And I feel pretty good about that one personally. My numbers do like the Dolphins plus five and a half and the Titans plus two and a half. I'm not betting either. Although the movement has been toward the Dolphins in this game. It moved like from four to six overnight with the Bills playing pretty well. Move back to five and a half between reopening this morning and when we're talking right now, my numbers do like the Dolphins, but like I don't, we talked about this with Ryan on yesterday's show with the Bills. Like I just can't envision, I can see so many paths to this game going totally bust to and feel like a moron for betting against Josh Allen. I think my numbers are a bit too low on the Bills and just, you know, separating out the idea of betting against Josh Allen. Also not a ton of value here with it being back at five and a half now. So I'll set this one out most likely unless we see something drastic happen during the week. I'm okay missing out on the Dolphins at plus five and a half. The Titans, instead of betting plus two and a half, I want the total in that game. It's 46 and a half. And I want the under there. I did get the under 47 when it was up on Sunday morning. Went down to 45 and a half. Then went back up to 46 and a half this morning. And I don't know why. I'm not sure what the Titans showed you in that game to inspire confidence. We should bet them. Maybe it's just faith in the Raiders. But the Raiders offense hasn't been that great either. Neither offense has blown me away to open this year. And it's a tough match up for Tennessee. The key strength they have on offense is running the football in theory. They haven't looked like that so far. But the Raiders defense, pretty good rush defense. So the Raiders, I think they're a good rush defense. They should bottle up this Titans offense, which is why I don't want to get to plus two and a half. But also I don't want to faith in this Raiders offense. They kind of run through Devontae Adams right now. We saw the Cardinals just devote every resource to stopping Devontae on Sunday. And their defense was pretty successful in doing so towards the end of that game. Hunter Renfrow banged up. I'm not sure what his status will be here. I don't have a totals model. And I want to be clear in that because this is based off of other stuff. So it's not based off of, oh, my numbers say X. I do have numbers that project out full game efficiency across both teams. If I compare this game's projected offensive efficiency with the rest of the games on Sunday Slate, the total for the other ones around it is around 41 and a half. So maybe you want the over on, you know, Packers bucks at 41 and a half, but I think 46 and a half is too high. So again, it's not based on the model. This is based on gut, based on matchup, based on projected efficiency. And there are a lot more things that go into a total than those things, but I will still take under 46 and a half on the Titans and the Raiders for Sunday. One other money line that my numbers like is the Jaguars against the Chargers. Now, my stuff tends to be very high in the Chargers. So this really did surprise me to see this happening. But I've got, this is a 5.25 point game in the Chargers favor. So the Jags win odds by my numbers around 33%, they're implied win odds at plus 265 or 27.4%. So there is about six, five and a half percentage points of value in that this money line on the Jags. I'm unsure. Cause I like what I've seen from the Jags. I think they've been interesting. They've been kind of past heavy so far this year. They're getting the first downs early in the air, early in the downs. Team Orisco of pro football focus tweets out those numbers every Monday morning. They've been getting first downs early, which is a key thing to do in the defense. Played well against a banged up Colts team on Sunday. I don't put a lot of stock into that defensive performance, but the offenses look good. So tentatively I'm holding off. I don't like betting against Justin Herbert cause he can do a lot of crazy stuff when the team takes the chains off of him. I'm tentatively holding off. That could change by the end of the week, but the Jags money line plus 265 showing value for me enough. So where I have to like, at least consider it, not quite there yet, but we're, we're looking into it. So the official ones I want to lock in right now, I want the Titans Raiders under 46 and a half. I want the Denver money line at minus 102 and I want the Steelers a plus five and a half in that game. Personally, I'm betting the Cardinals plus four, but again, I'm not going to subject you that once again. We'll talk more about the full slate coming up on Thursday with Ryan Williams. Again, Ryan doing well so far this year. We'll talk to him on Thursday to break down that slate and we'll have the prop preview coming on Friday, but those are the primary ones for me as of right now. Let's finish things up here for today by taking a look back at last week and recapping college football week three and NFL week number two on the college side of things. Ed Fang got awesome movement on his bet. He had Notre Dame minus 10 and a half. That one closed at 13 and a half. So no, no key numbers there, but still three points and three points, pretty big move in his favor, but Cal to their credit hung around the whole night. They had a chance to tie that thing up at the end. Notre Dame did hold on for the outright win, but seven point wins, so no cover there, but good movement for Ed longterm, you expect good movements to translate to good results didn't happen there, but we'll see what Ed says for tomorrow in premium college football week number four on the NFL side things. Our guests had a great week. Ryan Williams and Tom Vecchia, when he combined nine and one on their bets from last week's shows on Thursday and Friday, Ryan hit the bucks and saints under 44 and a half. He had the commanders and lions over 48 and a half. For spreads, Ryan had the Jags plus four and a half. And of course they won outright. You had the Packers minus nine and a half. They won that game by 17. You had the Patriots minus two and a half. They won by three. You had the Chargers plus four and a half. They lost, or they lost by three. So pretty sick week by Ryan across the board for that one. As far as last side schemes go on the Ryan side of things, we talked about a couple of things. He liked the Eagles Vikings under 50 and a half. And I thought that was toast for the first half, but then second half really no scoring at all. Had Devontae Smith anytime touched on a plus 240 and a Dalvin touchdown at minus 115 didn't get those, but he was all over Stephon Diggs. And that pretty much covered everything for him in that game. He had Diggs over 75 and a half receiving yards. That hit by like halftime and he like doubled that up. Anytime touchdown, he had three a plus 115. So a couple of ones didn't hit there for Ryan, but overall great Monday for him too as well. So great week overall for Ryan. Last week, check out Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. Good week by Tom Vecchio as well. Find him on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom. Tom's loan miss on Friday was Ramondry Stevenson. Anytime touchdown, that was plus 230. He didn't score, but he hit Aaron Jones over 29 and a half receiving yards. He had Darren Waller and Mark Anders. Anytime touchdowns, both those guys are plus 135. So good week for Tom. Good week for Ryan across the board. Check out Ryan Alexander underscore W on Twitter and DFS underscore Tom on Twitter. We'll talk to Ryan once again Thursday to get his thoughts on NFL week number three. Not the best week for me. By any means, we talked on Monday but I had the Vikings money line. It was plus 118 we talked. I believe it closed there as well. They didn't play well. Every time the Eagles snapped the ball, it seemed like they were gonna pick up 10 yards. I know the second half was a bit different, but like they were kind of in coast mode at that point. That offense is real good. And I expected good things in the Eagles. I had the over on the wind total at eight and a half at when I bet it, but didn't expect that on Monday night. They played really well. So this Eagles team is very good. I still think the Vikings will be good too. I still think that long-term, they'll be a solid football team, but the Eagles are good. So lost that money line there. Other money lines I had from earlier in the week were the Panthers and the Commanders. Good movement on both those. They both closed at even money. The Washington was plus 115 we talked. Panthers were plus 118. They both closed at even money. So good movement in my favor on both those, but neither team could pull it away in the Panthers. Had a couple of shots to do so. The Commanders tried to claw their way back in that game. It did make it close, but no wins in either of those. I also lost Seattle on the spread plus eight and a half. They played that. I think they might be a bad football team. I might have underestimated how bad they actually are, but either way, I lost that one plus eight and a half. The Cardinals did rally to cover and win outright. I had them plus five and a half. I personally bet the money line as well. That helped study it at five and a half all week. I don't feel good about that win. Like it was a win, one of the few I had this week, but hey, I don't feel good about it by any means. It was a win, but we'll take it. The other one I had was over 44 and a half of the Ravens versus the Dolphins. That one was great. No movement on that one similar to the Cardinals one, but that one I did feel good about. My numbers for the projected total offense efficiency really did like the over in that game. It did turn that way with a devolving into a shootout. So feel good about that. Don't feel good about the Cardinals win. Austin Eckler did hit the under 97 and a half rushing plus receiving yards. Talk about that on Thursday's show. He almost got there with some late dump offs, finished with 10 total targets and 14 carries. He made me sweat, but still got the win there. Just didn't think his role was that good. It did wind up being better than I thought it would be, but still hit the under there. So overall three and four across the week between Thursday, Monday night, and then Sunday was not my best week. We'll see if we can bounce back here in week three, but I think I feel pretty good about the week three bets we discussed before. So I didn't feel good about them. I wouldn't bet them, but we'll see if we can bounce back. I'll try to emulate what we got out of Ryan and Tom this past week. As I mentioned, our college football week number four preview is coming up tomorrow with that fangle breakdown. His favorite bets for this week will also get to Ryan on Thursday and we'll talk with JJ Zachary in Friday to get a proper breakdown should be a fun week once again. Want to give a big thank you to our guests across the entirety of today. We had Rob Friedman pitching Ninja on, talk about his favorite strikeout props, find him on Twitter at pitching Ninja, find Brandon Gadoula at Gadoula 13 and check out all of his golf betting work over at numberfire.com. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Thank you all for tuning in for today. Get a luck to you and your bets. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. Talk about some college football. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.