 Hey everyone welcome to the daily update today is what is today today's Thursday December 12th? I am Broadcasting from a restaurant today not my usual battle stations So if you hear some elevator music or some conversations in the background Don't worry the table next to me is looking at me like I'm a weirdo like I'm talking to myself But that's okay. You know why because I am dedicated to getting this info out to my fellow trade hackers Let's jump in first thing the vote in the UK is going on right now the whole Brexit vote and It's supposed to be all the votes supposed to be in by 10 o'clock PM our time I believe New York time British pound is the chart. We're looking at here four slash six B I see kind of a little bit of a wild ride today It was down big and back up to pretty not too far off from where it started still didn't even touch the expected move for The week I'm sure that potentially happened tomorrow depending on the situation But I really wanted to point out though was we've had a short strangle on in six B for a month a month We've had it on and The P&L has barely moved So I'm literally we could put this on today for better price than we did a month ago And that's just due to the implied volatility and the option prices increasing if we look at FXB You know even just today and we had this huge spike in implied volatility this huge Expansion in the price of those options So what I thought was going to be a little bit more of a non factor with this whole vote It's actually shaping up to look like at least from the options pricing some pumped up implied volatility So we'll see what happens regardless on our short strangle in six B it's got 22 days left to expiration and so we would roll we like to roll at 21 days anyway, so we will Either close or roll that tomorrow. So we'll see what happens there Next thing I wanted to look at was bonds. You know the Fed had the announcement yesterday left rates unchanged But bonds had a big move today, you know, they hit the top of their expected weekly move Yesterday and then today it went all the way down to the to the lower end So it's just kind of an interesting move in bonds So we'll see if we get some continuation to the downside on that or if we get a little bit of a bounce back But we added some we sold some premium today in bonds. Next. I just want to check out the SPX Expected move, you know, I was talking about yesterday. I was like watching paint dry. I got up this morning Looking at the markets S&P was up one point down one point looking pretty flat I was like, oh, here we go again Groundhog day and then all sudden boom next thing you know They're up 34 points haven't touched their upper end of that expected move yet, but Potentially will tomorrow. We'll see what happens. I would have liked to see this move But to the downside, of course that didn't happen So we'll see what happens into the rest of this week tomorrow Friday And then on this move we had a we had an iron duck in SPX We closed that out for a little bit over beak profit. So took that one off. We've still got another SPX iron duck on We also did an earnings trade I talked about yesterday in Lulu and Lulu came down even though they had awesome earnings They're kind of projections going forward weren't as great as the market would like so they dropped now price was down here Just right smack in the deckhead earlier It's moved up a little bit if we can kind of stay below this area right here Potentially book a duckhead profit in Lulu. So we'll close that out tomorrow Let's see what else that I want to show you a Roku Roku. So it markets up big But yet Roku's down 4% So we also have this iron duck in Roku if we get a little bit of a push higher into tomorrow We've got a total max profit of 924 bucks. Not sure it's gonna get all the way back up there We'd have to have a reversal saying about the same magnitude as we had today So it would have to be up about 4% tomorrow to get there But it certainly could if not we'll book a smaller beak profit on that one But that one expires tomorrow Then the other thing was Amazon. We've got an iron duck in Amazon as well So same kind of situation here if we get just a kind of steady the lower movement in Amazon We would be able to book a nice duckhead profit in there and then CL 4 slash CL oil We had an iron duck in oil and oil moving higher today It's not even on my board anymore because we took it off But oil was up around a 1% earlier today and we had an iron duck in oil I went ahead and booked that one for 150 bucks per contract. So we're out of oil and Then earnings we've got three earnings tonight Adobe Costco and AVGO, which is Broadcom I put some earnings trades on it in a personal account in all three those I posted one of them in the community and then a couple other people posted some other potential earnings plays in those So we'll see what happens. I didn't send out any alerts just because they didn't really set up as good as I wanted I still took a little shot on my own But didn't put it out to the community as a as an official alert But if we get some big moves up in those tomorrow, you know, we might potentially look to do some post earnings trades So it depends on what happens in those in fact the market is closed. Let's see what's happening in Adobe that looks like it's moving higher. So Closed it about 306 and it's up about 10 bucks. So it's up about the expected move So that captured the duck beak in that one. Let's see the other one AVGO When we got here close to 327, it's up a couple bucks. So pretty flat. So that would have been a decent one as well And then our friends Costco see how Costco is doing close to 297 and it's at about 295 so down a couple bucks So all three of those would have been potentially profitable trades depending on where things open tomorrow So that's earnings and then the last thing I wanted to mention was the VIX So let's take a look at the VIX now the VIX is down big today. Obviously because the market is up But that's not what I want to point out what I want to point out is Not just the VIX but the volatility on the VIX if we look at the IV percentile and IV rank indicator that we use You can see it's down a little bit today. It's contracted with the market moving up VIX moving lower applied volatility contracted leaving yesterday I was up at the 96th level now I've been looking to put on a VIX trade just like we teach in our course on VXX But as I've seen if we get a little bit of a pop higher in price before I did that Certainly warrants it with implied volatility being this high So what's interesting is even though the market is moving higher and look at this markets Tear higher the volatility on the VIX has continued to climb When this has happened in the past that a lot of times signals Volatility is coming now. Does that mean the markets gonna crash tomorrow? No, I'm not saying that what I'm saying is Be aware because that is a potential for a near term You know downturn in the market if history Repeats itself the other way you can look at this is you can look at ticker dbi X And this is the volatility on volatility So this is VIX volatility the volatility on the VIX and same thing you can see that this thing has just been Continuing to go up even though the market is going up where they usually have an inverse correlation if the market goes up The VIX goes down the volatility on the VIX goes down But not in this case in this case the volatility on volatility continues to expand so Interesting scenario going on right now. We'll see what happens a lot going on with trade and Brexit and impeachment and everything else and so that's part of what's causing this But we'll see what happens and how that eventually plays out Our preference is we hope we get a little bit of downside a little bit of two-sided action That would really help our portfolio, but we are going to stay mechanical stick with the program Make it happen. Everybody. Have a great evening. See you tomorrow