 Hi, my name's Leon Roeb currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's supply and demand for us in gold fundamental and technical analysis for the week starting at the 25th of September only a few more months left a couple more months left towards the end of the year into October Anyways, I hope you're all doing well last week. I didn't have a video I was away for a little bit and yeah pretty much back this week. So let's get back to business looking at the week ahead and This is from trading economics. So if you go to trading trading economics comm you'll be able to see the Guess a detailed synopsis on the week ahead But I'll just go over the really the summary so just zoom in a little bit So looking at the week ahead in the US the attention will be taken by several speeches by the Fed officials and the release of the PCE price index, which is a measure of inflation and personal income and spending in Europe Investors will be looking for flash inflation rate figures for the Euro area including Germany, Spain, France and Italy and several business confidence indicators including LFO Is it IFO? I think it's IFO business climate index also the The eyes will be on Chinese and Japanese manufacturing PMI figures So there was a lot of fireworks last week lots of central banks were making Monetary policy decisions last week and we'll get into that as we get into some of the technicals and So I'm really that's what we're kind of looking for and yeah Let's get into the technicals Sign off on the dollar index and the dollar just keeps going higher and higher and higher And it's not surprising when you consider, you know fundamentally that the dollar is really the the best of I guess a bad bunch and Yeah, so ultimately if you are looking to short the dollar you've probably been losing a lot of money And if you've been buying a dollar like myself Then you would have should have been at least doing half decent on On on the trades on, you know certain pullbacks because understanding fundamental analysis is really just understanding You know where you sure that you're your overall bias the overall bias that you should have when it comes to You know, you're you're whether you're going long or short, right? That's really ultimately what we're trying to to do So Looking at the Federal Reserve hikes That happened earlier in the week and they hiked by 75 basis points. There was rumors that they might hike us a hundred basis points But they hiked by 75 basis points with much more still to come So the Federal Reserve met expectations and hiked rates by 75 basis points with inflation Proving to be far stickier than imagined the Fed Repeated that activity needs to slow much more With the door left wide open for a fourth consecutive 75 basis point hike in November with recession looking virtually impossible to avoid We see a strong chance of poverty reversal later in 2023 So, you know in the short term It doesn't look like the dollar will still continue to appreciate, right? and I'm not saying that prices are going to go to the moon like you know because Prices never move in a straight line But pretty much any pullbacks on the dollar and you're using you know dollar index Which is a measure of just dollar strength against major currencies as confluence, right? So you're looking at where you are overall when you look at yourself, you know, look at say yourself But you know look at prices You know over what's happened since the beginning of the year, you know You are we are at an expensive area doesn't mean that because I'm saying this is expensive that prices can't go higher Of course they can but the goal is really to look for you know dollar buyers on pullbacks So I wouldn't be surprised if you know in in the near future. We do see prices start to come back down to areas You know the 109s 108 at some point And then look for for me. Anyways, it's looking for buying opportunities. I'm not looking to show the dollar not at all because Really that would be going against my fundamental bias So so yeah, just for me Still dollar longs at least in the short term the next month or so, of course that is data dependent meaning that The data has to support the other narrative because if the data comes out and it doesn't support Fed hikes rate hikes then of course the bias may have to be changed So for me dollar longs as it's been I've been saying it pretty much week in week out for the whole year It's pretty much saying, you know long dollar long dollar and long dollar on pullbacks and so far You know the trend has been and has been in the direction of the fundamentals and really the fundamentals of what drive the trend It's not price You know just just making higher highs for example for no reason there are reasons behind this And hopefully if you are have been watching me for any length of time and you can go back through my Sunday videos My weekend videos, you'll see that pretty much week in week out from the beginning of the year I've been saying long dollars long dollars anyways Dollar yen now we had a bit of a surprise on the dollar yen or the order yen in so far as Intervention right so we had intervention come in And it was the first time since 1998 and really central bank intervention is just the way the bank Has to really kind of step into either buy or sell the currency to stop Devaluation or depreciation of a currency or the appreciation of a currency if a currency gets too weak or too strong It can have detrimental effects and the key to that is actually if it does it too quickly too suddenly so Yeah, the the Bank of Japan Intervened right to support the yen because the yen if you're looking at you know the price chart this one I should say the yen has been really declining in value for for a while right and There was 140 was the line in the sand or what they said was the line in the sand and then You know prices move up to one to one four fives up to the one four sixes and so The the Bank of Japan if you've been paying attention I guess to any fundamentals and you knew what was happening and we did in in in trading 180 We were I'm actually short on the yen On the on the euro yen, but you know previously so the 15th of September There were reports and again in the group and in the mentoring group I've been saying this for the past three or four weeks and preparing traders that there was a possible Yen central bank intervention, of course, no one knew the exact time of it But you know it was on the horizon and it was coming closer and closer and so You know from the 15th of September the end drifts is traders more impact of Japan in Japan intervention threat, right so You know last week or the week before The Bank of Japan delivered a strong warning Wednesday with what was known as a rate check And options market points to growing bets on a yen rally So I think options have already been caught options market has been caught on the wrong side. Oh Yen rally meaning sorry Yen strength apologies. Yes. So in fact, sorry. I'm just reading that wrong But the options market was actually growing bets on yen strength. So So, yeah, so basically the Central Bank the Bank of Japan was really warning the market that it could intervene and In the in our discord private discord group You'll see from like the 13th of September so Tuesday the 13th of September, which is before even the reports and again This is just An example of you know what we were talking about what I was talking about is You know, I said to traders in the group that if the dollar yen breaks past the one four fives and goes to the one four Six is quickly. Yeah, then I put the EJ the euro yen It's like a great stop-hunt trade and stop-hunts aren't something that I talk about obviously and it's applying demand Videos because it's something that the the private members will get access to and know how to trade But there's a stop-hunt trade because the pressure on the Bank of Japan Because of the pressure the Bank of Japan is under to intervene, right? So I spoke about the idea in yesterday's tech analysis video Also, this is not a trade call or signal if you understand the trade idea and plan to enter on a yen anyway Then uses information as confluence if you don't understand the trade idea or had no plan to buy the yen Then please don't firmware or take a trade if you're not confident fully understand the risks of you know with my trade idea and Ultimately, you know, we're you know in trading 180 we're not You know doing trade calls or signals where teaching traders how to trade for themselves rather than follow, right? So the saying is catch a man a fish and he eats for a day teaching man to fish or woman to fish Of course, and they eat for a lifetime and so You know, this is not following but I do give you know guidance as to you know trade ideas that I'm looking to take and And what happened was is that this was the actual trade itself or the setup I was talking about and again This was published on the 13th of September And I was saying I was in this from really the highs around the one four fours 50 freeze and if we go to the the Euro yen Euro Jpy You will see That's from, you know one four four five switch somewhere around here, you know The trade has done, you know, good few hundred pips quite a few hundred pips, right? So I mean some nerds and decent profit on that and so our other traders as well that got involved in this and some other You know pound yen shorts and New Zealand yen shorts So we were really ahead of the curve when it comes to understanding You know the the intervention that was you know going to potentially take place, right and also As well going back to dollar yen, you know, what really triggered it was I think it was like on the On the Thursday, right? You had this happen So you had you know as again we were talking about the one four five one four six is you had this move higher So as it started to go a lot higher above the area That's when the central bank, you know started to intervene and so you know again, you know We had pretty much, you know called it which is basically if the yen breaks the one four fives and goes to one four six is quickly So, you know, we knew that there was a higher probability, you know that the yen the bank of Japan were going to intervene and so we took, you know, the steps accordingly and You know got in on, you know certain trades now didn't buy the dollar yen Of course because the dollar is the is the is the stronger out of you know, most of the currencies, right? So when we're trading currencies, you want to trade the strongest versus the weakest, right? So if if you're thinking about, you know buying the yen, right, which is going to go into strength Because of central bank intervention What would have been the best trade or the best currencies to trade it against it would definitely not been against the dollar You would have to be something weak like the euro or the pound for example Those would have been, you know, good candidates to, you know get short on those on those currencies Euro yen pound yen where you're buying the yen, right where the yen is the base currency I'm sorry the quote currency is the second currency So if you're going if you're buying the end, you've got to go short, right? So with that being said You know, we have pretty much You know, I guess a short bias, but personally I wouldn't necessarily I'm not getting short on the dollar yen I'm short on some some other pairs. I do think that this would eventually this may eventually necessarily roll over. I think it probably will roll over, but it's not a pair that I'm interested in taking and There are supply and demand zones, you know around here, but I think with the dollar strength It's going to be difficult for this to necessarily go higher because obviously you've got sent the central bank looking to defend certain areas So, but also as well, it may just end up kind of staying within this, you know This range or this auction between the one for one for sixes and maybe the one forties maybe down to one three sixes So let's see what happens. But for me Not really a pair, not really a setup that I'm interested in on this pair But I do think that if prices come up to the one for sixes I do think actually that might be a decent technical sell to get short But yeah, not really a pair that I'm looking to to buy or sell at the moment Until really the dust settles surrounding the valuation of the yen and the Bank of Japan's intervention So dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss Swiss Frank ended up hiking rates This this week as well. So we've come up to a decent supply zone Also, you have, you know, the The dollar Looking to or they hiked rates as well So when you have two central banks that are hiking rates, it's very difficult to tell which way prices will go in the In the medium to long term There are other determining factors like the economy, etc Because pretty much all central banks are hiking rates But there are other things that you have to look towards to to see like for example the economy To determine which one you would want, but for me, I think the dollar yen isn't really a pair That I'm interested in in terms of I think the Swiss Frank is likely to appreciate not too sure whether to do against the dollar But if you do want to get short on this currency pair You know now is okay. This level has been touched once already the first touches are always the best touches Second time is not so good. So if I was looking for any kind of, you know Short trade from a supply and demand perspective even up at these highs, you know, again, you know It's been kind of touched once or twice. So We'll be in touch to once so the fresh areas are always the best areas to look for short trades But yeah, you got two Areas to look for potential shorts if you want to buy the Swiss Frank if you're looking to buy the dollar Then you're looking for pullbacks into demand before looking at getting Long but not a pair that I'm interested in dollar CAD dollar CAD making higher highs And in a risk more risk-off environment the the dollar US dollars should want to strengthen over the Canadian dollar, which is known as a commodity currency And that's basically what's playing out right now. So any pullbacks to these, you know, the one three twos are Decent buying opportunities or the one three ones if you're looking to buy the US dollar looking to buy the Canadian dollar for whatever reason, I think the nearest supply zone was basically from around two years ago. So I'm not really too keen on on shorting that. I'm really not really keen on Trading this pair anyway But if I was it would be, you know, to buy the US dollar go long on the US dollar In a risk-off environment. So I think those are really your options New Zealand dollar US dollar again, if you've been following Been saying that the path of these resistance is to the downside and that's really been been proven So, you know, if you watch last week's video pretty much saying this, you know These are my thoughts again, not interested in this currency pair per se But you know, if I was being a better man, it would be into the downside and a risk-off environment The dollar should be the winner in a risk-off environment. The New Zealand dollar You know commodity currency should do well. So any pullbacks, I think To the 60 cent area is decent any demand zones that we're coming down to again Was basically from the 2020 area not too keen on two-year-old demand zones But um, yeah, I'd have to wait for prices to kind of prove that there's value there first meaning that you want to See a pullback at least before looking at trying for for long Going going long on the New Zealand dollar And maybe get some sort of double bottom, you know pattern if you want to call it double bottom But for me, I'd rather you know, wait for proof of value and a pullback before getting long and really for sentiment to change around You know risk sentiment in the global economy looking at the pounds everyone's looking at the pound right now and You know the pound isn't faring well lots of people getting short on the pound and again, you know We've been saying short pound for a very long time. I say very long time, but at least since beginning of April around these, you know, these this period here was talking about, you know, short biases having short biases for the pound And you're seeing pretty much what's what's what's happened now With the pound You know, there was fiscal Policy we've got a new prime minister Liz Truss and Her policies or the Chancellor's policy quasi-quartang hasn't gone down well with With the market so the UK's biggest tax cuts since 1972 trigger a crash in the pound and bonds so package costing 161 billion is aimed at stimulating economy economy same measures will add to inflation and debt and that is really the fear, right? So They say the measures will add to inflation. I think in the short term, you know, the the the energy Cap price cap should, you know stabilise inflation, but Tax cuts are kicking the inflation, you know, down the road kind of thing. So You know, I'll read the first maybe paragraph or two Which says this trust This trust is new British government delivered the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972 slashing levies on rich household and companies in a bid to boost economic growth in a move that triggered a massive Market set off in UK assets And so Chancellor of the Exchequer quasi-quartang announced a series of tax cuts and regulatory reforms that will cost 161 billion dollars so dollars pounds over the the next five years that fanned That fanned concerns about inflation already near a 40 year high and about spiraling government debt burden, right? So that's really where the concerns are but but let's see what how, you know, the The economy fairs but but in the short term, I'm still going to be short on the On the pound also as well what was interesting was this from the Guardian and it says emergency Interest rate hike needed to calm the market says Deutsche Bank So the situation in the markets is so bad that the Bank of England should hold an emergency meeting to raise interest rates Suggested or suggests a Deutsche Bank analyst, right? And it makes sense because When you have a weak currency or devaluing currency and the devaluing currency That is devaluing, you know, quite quickly just like how the Japanese yen and the Bank of Japan intervened you know to stop the the yen from From devaluing quickly the same situation is potentially happening to the the pound, right? And so it's not just Deutsche Bank or George Sarah Vellos Right a very smart man who's the head of the globe where fix research told clients that a large Intermeeting rate hike from the Bank of England as soon as next week is needed So, you know, that's to basically stop to try to prevent the the pound from You know from from declining on and to from devaluing right which may actually support the market and stop the the pound from declining as much and Again, we have this in Bloomberg, which is the UK market plunge sparks talk of emergency Bank of England rate, right? So again quoting the Deutsche Bank's analyst and it makes all the sense in the world, right? if you understand the relationship between Inflation and and the economy as well as interest rates, so So, yeah, let's see what happens there But for now the pound is still a short Right on pullbacks, of course don't FOMO, you know, you never want to be a person that FOMO's in On this trade, but if it pulls back to at least the 115's 114 50s to 115's, I think that's gonna be a decent short right there You know to look for any shorts anyway, and yeah No, no buyers on the pound and last time we saw the pound this low again was we look at all Hasn't been for a while. Actually, I think the data on them. What's this? Oh, anda doesn't even go back that far. So Yeah, it's pretty low, but I think it must be since the 80s. So any pullbacks on the On the pound at least a good couple of hundred pits because we're at the 108's right now So you'd need at least a good, you know, 600 pit pullback before Before an opportunity for a short actually starts to take place Moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar again Shorts all the way Shorts all the way, you know guys in the group have been shorting that euro dollar and doing really well and Again, the euro right again just like every other central bank is You know talking about hiking rates, right? So ECB naggle says more interest rate hikes will be necessary and inflation fight brings burdens with it Bundersbank chief says and the burden basically means that They may have to sacrifice the economy right because when you raise interest rates It has an it can have a negative effect on the economy and and the growth of the economy and remarks suggest hawkish few even in the face of growth risks, so Yeah, central banks are gonna have to try and fight inflation. That's the immediate threat and so but there's also the The weather on the horizon right so energy costs and Europe having I don't think they've agreed an energy cap yet But Europe's first cold snap is early test for continent in crisis So temperatures to drop across Europe by middle of next week in UK gas demand is already higher chilly mornings, so You know an Arctic chill that is blowing across Western Europe through next week will be the first test of how people of How willing people are to delay switching on the heating in a bid to save energy and ease household budgets because You know if if you're you know spending all your money on heating and energy then You're not gonna have money to spend on new fancy things to you know run the economy cars You know businesses investments, etc. Think about what businesses are gonna have to our businesses are gonna be heating their businesses and their properties, etc so You know it's the cold weather will exacerbate the The economy is in terms of you know potentially, you know Spending slowing down retail sales, etc And so the colder it is is the more pressure it puts on Europe to introduce a guess a cap And also, you know energy bills so and living and the cost of living crisis, right? so Although the ECB are looking to hike rates, which is fine But they're hiking rates in a very difficult situation in terms of you know the economy and where people are financially so For me the lesser of the two evils is the is the dollar a lot people. I mean sorry is the euro No, sorry apologies is the dollar the lesser of two evils is the dollar The the euro is the one that I think is the dog with the most fleas and will be the one that will weaken We were talking about this there was an analyst in that we got I remember what bank they were from and they were saying that in fact the euro could actually go down as low as 90 cents that was their Their their their forecast and there's some other banks that are forecasting 95 cents so and again fundamentally that makes that makes all the sense in the world because Of where you know when you compare the two Currencies and the economies and where they are The dollar is again the lesser of the two evils So any pullbacks into the one, you know the one cent level Sorry the the dollar level One euro level then, you know, I think that's gonna be a very nice cell for me No buys on the on the euro not yet There's no really no levels that you can kind of look towards to say alright, then well That's worth a buy just like the pounds you need to see price prove that there is you know Demand at those areas and then if you want to get long on that then wait for a pullback Aussie dollar Aussie dollar like the other commodity currencies Aussie dollar really kind of suffering from risk-off sentiment But I do think the the Australian dollar at some point when sentiment does turn or if the dollar starts does start to weaken due to a change in the monetary policy, I Think the Australian dollar is going to be a very nice buy but for now Again, Par for these positions is to the downside. So so yeah zooming out a bit Nothing really until May. I'm not really a fan of trying to pick Or use supply zones that are years old So I rather wait for prices to prove that there's Value there and then look for pullbacks But for now, I think the US dollar is in the driving seat So any pullbacks my bias is really to would be to short. I'm not really trading this pair though I'm not really a pair that I'm looking to trade Aussie yen This was something that I was interested in but as soon as the central bank started to bank in Japan and you know Intervened in the market All bets are off the table. So no long trades And really no no, I wouldn't say I think short trades are probably the way to go in the short term Yeah, I think any pullbacks I think are going to be definitely short short events or short shorting Opportunities as the Bank of Japan Try to stem the devaluation of the yen and so that's really where my bias is if you are trying to get long There are some areas to try to look to get long on But that would really in my book be Quite a lower probability trade. I do think that technically I do think that the end, you know the lower end of this The 91 50s to 91 area, I think is a decent buy technically I really do like that technically but let's see what happens as we approach there But not really looking to trade the Aussie yen or any yen pairs and not trade against any any of the yen pairs anyway So that's kind of off the table and if I am buying any of the pairs It's I'm gonna put it up to buy the yen at least in the short term and Gold gold with the dollar strengthening. We've just had nothing but Gold going to the downside Again, I've been saying for a few weeks that the earth do you think gold is a buy but not necessarily to trade gold There are opportunities, but Personally, I think gold buying physical gold is a decent By as we go get cheaper and cheaper Where are we now again? Really you got supply zones or demand zones I should say from again 2020 not a fan of trying to use these zones, although they are there, but But guess I'll draw them just for illustration purposes, but I Do think that I would rather probably wait for Again price to kind of prove that there's demand here and then wait for a pullback before getting Long but as long as the there's positive sentiment around the US dollar then It's gonna be very tough for gold To really catch a break. I think in my opinion, but I think later on in the year or maybe this year once the Sentiment starts to change for the dollar as we go into the new year. I do think that there are buying opportunities now So let's see my bias is still to the long side, but it doesn't mean I'm buying every demand zone It just means that I'm I'm being cautious with my bias and I'm also not using any kind of leverage or or anything like that or margins or anything like that just looking to you know buy Gold and invest more in gold for the year because once we do, you know talk about recessions Into, you know, 2023 that is when I think that narrative should push gold to the upside So let's see what happens. It could go lower But if you've got the the foresight to think that prices should be up here during a recession and the dollar should weaken Going into 2023 You know beginnings of 2023 then this is gonna look like an absolute bargain that these prices at this 1600 1620 areas anyways guys, that's it for this week. I hope you have a great week and Take care and speak to you