 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is a new era for covering the spread beginning today because as of now We are a daily podcast every weekday podcast here up on the same fee trying to find you some good bets on the board based on the odds at Fandall sportsbook and I'm pretty pumped for this journey now Of course with the debut of a kind of new show my flight yesterday got cancelled So I have no microphone no camera stuff like that so it's gonna look a little janky for day number one But I think it's going to be a fun ride here We're gonna be coming at you every day Monday through Friday and that opens up a lot of stuff for us as Podcasts are just trying to get you what you want as better. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire dot com I'll be your host here for all five days throughout this week and it's gonna be a fun ride And in case you missed our talk last week with with Ed Fang Going through the new format for the show our goal In going to being a daily show is to be able to cover more with weekly shows We can't cover, you know, the more in-depth stuff the more granular stuff We can't go through individual baseball games, which is what we're doing later on today We can't do a full Monday night football prop breakdown stuff like that Now we can and I think that's fantastic from a consumer perspective and also allows us to Cover the topics we think you would probably want to hear something. It would have been great to do earlier on We just didn't really have like the the resources to do so So I think this move was honestly a bit overdue now with that said we are gonna be doing more podcasts But the thesis of the podcast is going to remain the same We've always been a numbers driven podcast So I wanted add on with me initially was because I value Ed's Ed's Ed's brain And I've been able to benefit from that for a very long time We want to be a processed based discussion still here on the show I want to get the reasoning behind the bets we like and stuff like that So my goal is to lay out all of this so you can make informed decisions about whether or not you agree with what I'm saying And if you do cool awesome, let's try to win some money together But if you don't that's awesome, too I want you to know have the ability to decide for yourself. Do I like this bet? Do I not like this bet? I want you to have the tools to make that decision for yourself So the the overall theme of the show will remain the same even though we're gonna be here more often We're gonna get you quicker bites of podcasts just to get you on your way because you know shorter shelf life and stuff like that But I think we'll still be able to get our typical Process based discussion the reasoning for why we like a bet in here as well now the schedule for this week week Number one here of the daily shows on a covering the spread today and Thursday We're gonna talk daily MLB betting me by myself going through that days MLB slate also talk some racing on Thursday That's the other kind of like backdoor benefit of the show is that I get to talk racing if I want to because We have more time to do so. I know a lot of you don't care So I'll stick all the racing stuff at the end of the show So you can just listen to the net the the racing part dip off whenever you want to I get it It's okay. I'm not my feelings will not be heard if you turn the show off before it's done But hey, I got to talk some a cup series Excinity series formula one. I think that's gonna be fun So today and Thursday MLB plus a little bit of NASCAR at the end on Tuesday will a pitching ninja Rob Friedman That's pretty fun. He's gonna come on to talk strikeout props. You know him from Twitter, of course But Rob gonna do some strikeout props for us. I'll ask him about strikeout props I like to see what his thoughts are on those that's gonna be a lot of fun That's every Tuesday also every Tuesday Brandon could do a you know him from here on covering the spread But also on the heat check fantasy podcast with me We'll have all him on tomorrow to preview the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs for golf break down his favorite bets of that on Wednesday Of course, your favorite Ed Fang will still be here every Wednesday this Wednesday specifically We're gonna Joe Astrosky on with us to To talk preseason NFL games because I personally don't bet them But I think there's a lot of value in betting them because I just don't have the time to do The research necessary in such a news-oriented market, and I know that's a deficiency of mine So we're gonna have Joe on to talk about that with Ed and Ed will like I said be here every Wednesday In season talking college football and then transitioning to World Cup college basketball a lot of stuff So you'll still get your ed fix in we would not take that away from you I don't want to take that away from me either on Friday JJ Zachary Jason you know him as well will come on to talk season-long NFL player props We're gonna have him on a couple of time to think before the year because there are a lot of Americans you can bet there So it's gonna be a fun week It's gonna be a fun new format, and I'm excited to go through all of that with you here on Covering the spread we'll dig into today's MLB numbers in just one second Of course all these shows will be posted up on the the covering the spread podcast feed find that wherever you get your Podcasts if you're already subscribed nothing will change there those will still go to you right when they're posted We'll also have these up on the Fandal YouTube page. Those will go up after the fact So if you want the numbers earlier, I'd recommend the podcast feed But if you just want if you prefer to watch stuff on YouTube, we'll go up on there later on So check out the Fandal YouTube page and the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts NFL week one odds are out and now's the time to try Fandal sports book if you haven't already Gettin on the action early this season to help get you started new Fandal customers can get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 think your favorite team is making the playoffs Who is your dark horse to win the rushing title odds for that and much more are available at Fandal sports book app to sign up place your first bet and Fandal will give you up to $1,000 back in free bats if you don't win There is no better place to get ready for the football season man on Fandal America's number one sports book an official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and present in select states first online a real money wager only Refund issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt Restricts as applies see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or if it's a Fandal comm slash RG in Arizona call 1-800 next step or text next up to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chef in Louisiana 1-777-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text hope and why in Tennessee call the red line at 1-889-789 in Wyoming 1-800-522-4700 or in West Virginia 1-800-GAMBLER dot net Let's take into today's MLB slate the way we'll do this for today is I have a model for money lines and strike out Props those are the primary things I'll be discussing on the show because again We want to keep this process based numbers based stuff like that That's only markets where I have actual numbers. I will break down some home run props later on My confidence level in those is lower and I want to be fully transparent about that I don't have numbers behind that Brandiga Dula does post numbers up on number fire based on number fires Projections you can find that there I will talk through some thoughts I'm looking at the prices. I've been winded by it on and much more as far as money lines go I am showing some value on the Mets, which is kind of odd because their money line is minus 320 Which puts their implied win-offs for tonight at 76% so it's a very big number But I do think that it's actually pretty fair based on what my numbers are saying So I've actually got options here with the money line being as large as it is My model is still showing value. I can just take the money line because value is value I don't mind stacking a couple bucks in that way or I could look towards the run line They're at minus 152 at minus one and a half on the run line And like I said, I have a money line model and a strikeout model. I do not have a run line model so I Personally is a better get uncomfortable betting markets where I don't have a model because I know that we can sometimes have some issues in terms of Paying too much, you know, people think okay. I want to I want to go to the money line It's a bit too steep. I'll turn to the run line instead automatically without investigating the actual number there I get uncomfortable in those situations and The hold in this market is actually a pretty decent amount higher than the run line market The hold in the the run line market is 4.57% the hold in the money line market is 3.97% so in general rule of thumb bet the lower hold market and I am as a result and going to stick with the money line here I have a model that backs up this number I'm paying into a lower hold market than I would be otherwise and I think long run It's about 0.6 percentage points and the difference in the hold there But that adds up really quickly over the long run. So I'm I want to pay into the lower hold market and take the money the money line here I do think the run line works if you prefer that this offense is in a great spot against Justin Dunne Who is struggling down in AAA coming up to make his 2022 debut for the Reds? The Chris Bassett is lights out right now. It's a pressing hard contact getting ground balls with a higher Focus on his curveball recently. So you can do it. You can go towards the run line here I think it's fully viable, but I'm gonna go my personal preferred route with the money line here And mine is 320 on the Mets One underdog woman my numbers are showing some values on the parades of plus 200 against the Diamondbacks That puts their implied win odds at 33 percent. I've got them closer to 40 percent So this is a significant gap and that should alleviate my concerns around my model's deficiencies here But I'm not quite willing to bite on this one personally yet I think the reason why I am hesitant despite showing value is I know where my numbers lag where they might be a little bit Deficient and one of those spots where they can struggle is Projecting guys who are stretching out from being relievers into being stars That's what Tyler Beatty is doing here for the pirates. I'm not sure how long they will let him go for tonight He struggled in his first start the longer they let him go the worse He'll probably pitch and the pirates bullpen is not good. So yes, my numbers are showing value here But I don't I don't trust my numbers ability to properly project a guy in Beatty's specific position So personally, I'm not gonna win on this one. I have seen some movements on their run line The run line was even money at plus at plus one and a half It's now plus one oh two So it does seem as though Maybe if you want to go towards the run line, you might get a better number there later on It was minus one away to 1.2 So it's been a lot of movement on that run line for the pirates personally I think I will stay away from this one But I do think that Arizona's being a bit overrated in this spot I will say if this number continues to move and we see the downbacks become even bigger favorites Maybe at that point I'm willing to pull the trigger, but that means I'm betting against People who are smart putting their money into this market and that's a bit concerning So for me probably to stay away But if you want another spot where there is some value the pirates are the one at plus 200 in the money line that do great Outwell, let's go now to strike out props and my favorite one for the today is going to be in Keegan Thompson And his number is also moving around a lot That's one of the downsides of a daily MLB show right now at Fandall Sportsbook His strikeout prop is four and a half with minus one oh two on the over I will say though you can still get a three and a half out there on Keegan Thompson It's a minus 180 pretty big number obviously I'm guessing they will get to four and a half of 1.2 I bet rivers He's plus 112 to go over four and a half and even at minus one or two where Fandall currently has him I still think there is value there now Full disclosure. I bet Thompson strikeout prop over twice and in those two games He has combined for two strikeouts seems bad But he has a 23.3 percent strikeout rate in eighth starts since he started throwing his His new slider that he has and it's not like a good pitch in general But it like makes his other pitches better He's had seven plus strikeouts seven plus and his numbers are four and a half in five of those eight starts I have Thompson projected for five point seven strikeouts today His over odds are around 60 percent. So You know, I think that you look at this number I mean technically I'd be showing value down to minus 150 over four and a half I'm not sure I go that far just because he is a bit volatile I think if you can get this down to minus 120 That's the park where I would probably be jumping off minus 130 questioning it a little bit Minus 1440. It's pretty much a fair market value at that point. So minus 102 I am still showing value what I would say though is shop around to try to identify if there are better numbers still hanging out there for Thompson because Other markets are lagging behind where Fandals move for him. So four and a half I think we're at minus 102 total okay with that again down to minus 120 I will show you good enough value to bet on that one But check around see if you can get plus money on over four and a half Thompson In a good matchup the wind it really feel blowing in that's not going to aid strikeouts directly But it will what it will do is keep the ball in the yard allow Thompson to go deeper in the game That should be a benefit for him too So Thompson check around see what you can get it plus four over four and a half But even at minus 102 my numbers do show value in him because of the impact that new slider has had on the rest of his pitches the other strikeout prop in My peripheral right now is Jordan Liles over four and a half at plus 134 I have not bet this one yet. I have Liles projected at 4.8 strikeouts. His over odds for me are 51.3% so that's a lot better than plus 134 the implied odds there And I would pull this trigger if Liles had better numbers against righties because the strikeouts rate against them is 19% Which is the exact same as it is versus lefties actually a bit lower against righties And that's a big concern against a very righty heavy line up, which is what the blue J's are So technically my numbers are showing a bit of value quite a bit But it does seem as though there has been some money on the under in this one Liles open it plus 118 Or at least he's plus wait 118 this morning when I first looked he's now plus 134 So there is a good shot you can get a better number on Liles later I also would not be shocked if this gets to three and a half at some point I have his over odds of three and a half at 67% it's 51% at four and a half so Use those numbers as your baseline to decide what you want to do with Jordan Liles If he gets the three and a half and he's and the implied odds are if it's like minus 150 or or better I might be willing to do that then but four and a half a bit hesitant again There is a lot of value here, but it's a really rough matchup for him He hasn't been perfect in this time my numbers don't like him in this span So he could these mission with earned runs, but I do think that he's being a bit undervalued So I am monitoring this market right now. It's a hold for me Potentially could wind up diving in just want to see where the market goes on this first to decide if I want to buy in So as of right now nothing on Liles for me But keeping close tabs and that strikeout number to see where it goes and see if I want to buy in should the market sour on Liles even more than it already has again the Numbers I have for Liles over three and a half is sixty seven percent or four and a half is fifty one percent Let's finish up here with some dingers for today the daily dingers and again I don't have a model around this So I want to be transparent from that because again This is not going to be my strongest market and it's not been my strongest market historically One team I am eyeing in this department is the Yankees They're going to T-Mobile Park and T-Mobile Park for home runs for righties is a very neutral spot Whereas Yankee Stadium is above average But it's not as big of a downgrade for a righty to go to T-Mobile Park as it is for a lefty from Yankee Stadium the reason that righties are interesting to me in this spot is because they're facing Logan Gilbert and Gilbert actually has some pretty serious reverse platoon splits as a right-handed pitcher and we saw this last week because Gilbert was at Yankee Stadium Days in the very same Yankees team and he really struggled and I think that when you dig into the platoon splits for Gilbert It does make a lot of sense looking at his numbers versus righties this year letting up more hard contact He's led up a 460 slugging percentage versus 308 against lefties now that's over relatively small samples and Slugging percentage takes longer to stabilize and number like ISO, but his eyes is 190 against righties. So He's struggling with fingers right now The strikeout rate has also been going down a bit recently for Gilbert across his past 11 starts His strikeout rate is around 19% So strikeout rates going down letting up a lot of hard contact at the moment Let's up fly balls to righties and facing a line up that has a lot of very powerful righties within it That all adds up to me to making the Yankees a team I want to check in on on their home run prop market now era judges plus 210. I Can't quite get there, you know, he's he's tremendous I just can't quite get to plus 210 on era judge Josh Donaldson plus 420 also righty I think the guy who stands up most of me those labor Torah is a plus 480 Torah is You know, we only have seven home runs versus righties so far this year But a 46% fly ball rate and it is seven home runs across 272 played appearances. So That's not going to get you to plus 480, but said a lot of doubles in there I think he's close to having more than that So to me I would say if you want to check out the Yankees as a result of the fact They just saw Gilbert and they're seeing him again the fact that the righties Tending better against him. They don't get a big downgrade or as big of a downgrade going to T Mobile Park from Yankee Stadium. It's lefties do I think that that process grades out Well labor Torah is plus 480 be in the key guys hands that to me there in the home run prop market I do have some interest in the Orioles for today They're facing you say kukuchi who's lighting up a lot of hard contact still even as he's come back and been tooling tinkering around this approach I just don't like any of the Orioles numbers at Fandle right now Ryan Mount Castle plus 350 Cedric Mullins plus 390 He can't hit lefties. So it's not a that's not a concern for me Just a pretty short number lower down Jorge Mateo has been shortening here at Fandle sports But he was six to one this morning. He's now plus 560 So it seems like there has been at least some interest in Mateo there So I can't quite get to that number, but I will say earlier on this morning There were some longer odds on Mateo to go deep and Mateo Five home runs versus lefty so far this year puts the ball in the air has a 200 ISO versus lefties I would check out what his number is and if you can get him Somewhere around 8 9 to 1 I think that might be the point where you eventually do buy in and Bite that bullet at plus 560. I can't do it at Fandle But I do think there have been some software numbers in the market so far today And I would check them out to see where they're out of Mateo specifically because he could be a longer shot to go Deep so labor tour is at Fandle or hey Mateo elsewhere the key guys I am looking out for dinger props for today That's all we got here for this first daily show of covering the spread like I said We're gonna have this show up on both the Fandle YouTube page and on the covering the spread podcast feed each and every weekday So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and then also go to the Fandle YouTube page and subscribe there And if you like this new format if you have feedback on it feel free to leave us or review You can also tweet at me on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a and and yes, it's a new show It's a new format. So more than open to taking your feedback there and adjusting to make this show However, you see it best. Good luck to you with your bets for today We are back once again tomorrow talk with pitching ninja about strikeout props and branding a dealer to break down some PGA as Well going to be a blast this upcoming week. We'll talk to you soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network