 And we are back. It's still the breakfast and plus TV Africa set for first major conversation this morning on security and elections in Nigeria. Well, the independent National Electoral Commission, Nigeria's electoral empire, INEC, as they are known, has lamented the growing wave of election-related insecurity across the country, expressing fear that the trend, if not checked, could lead to the cancellation or postponement of the forthcoming general polls in the country. Well, the chairman aboard of the Electoral Institute TEI, that's INEC's training arm, Professor Abdulahi Abdul-Zuru, he said the development could hinder the declaration of election results and precipitate what it calls a constitutional crisis. The electoral empire therefore called for concerted efforts to stem the tide of violence in the country. Well, data earlier released by the Independent National Electoral Commission detailed about 50 attacks on its facilities across the 15 states in the country, namely IMO with 11 attacks, OSHO with seven attacks, INU with five, AQUABA with five, ABONU with four, KROCHEV with four, ABIA with four, ANAMBRA with two, TARABBA with two, KADUNA with one, BONU with one, PAHYELSA with one, UNDO with one as well. Enjoying us to discuss insecurity and its effect on Nigeria's forthcoming election, we have two guests, Dr. Amosha Ladeji, a political scientist, joins us, from Singapore, a country I love so much. Dr. Ladeji, good morning to you, thank you very much for your time. Good morning, thank you for having me. All right, all right. And of course, Dixon Osaje is with us in the studio, Dixon is a global security analyst. Good morning to you, Mr. Osaje. Good morning, thank you for having me from Nigeria, I love so much. Yes indeed, no way here. All right, gentlemen, I think I'll start with a gentleman from Singapore. What are your thoughts on this warning, this fear expressed by an official of INEK? And of course, as the media has taken in that INEK has spoken, we're not unaware of the attacks on INEK facilities in different states, both at the state level and local government level. Do you agree that if the security situation is not unchecked, we might see an effect on next this year's election? Most certainly, the insecurity situation in the project can have great impact on the 2023 general election, because people need to be at peace for election hope. So the statement by INEK, it's either what we should expect, what they are planning to do based on the recurring pattern over the years, or what is happening and they are trying to prevent. So I see from two perspectives, but in the days ahead, it will come to conclusion whether it is what INEK is planning to do because we have a cancellation of the vote on the eve of election in 2011, 2015 and 2019, three successive times. So it may be like a launchpad for what we should expect in next month in terms of postponement. And it may also be that INEK is informing us about the true situation of INEK and they are trying to navigate themselves successfully around it. Either way, peace is essential. In an atmosphere of violence, in an atmosphere of conflict and rigor, definitely there cannot be a peaceful conduct of election. It will lead to voter apathy, it will lead to manipulation of the system itself and both the electoral empire and the electorate themselves will be honorable. So I think that INEK is on point to notifying Nigeria, but I believe it should be informing Nigerians just for the sake of awareness and they should be working with security agencies to prevent a situation whereby we would have another postponement of the election. If you look at under the current INEK chairman in 2019, there was a postponement of the election and I believe now it should make effort. I have not four years to prepare to write his name in gold this time to make sure that there's no postponement of election even though we can say that INEK fulfillment of their duty is relative in the sense that if INEK is ready, if the security agencies they are not ready, there's no much that INEK can do. But certainly to base on the project security system of Nigeria at this point in time, if there's no guarantee for security, definitely it will mark the conduct of the election. All right, Lixima Saajie, what are your thoughts on this? I mean he went down memory lane and we know that in 2015 the then Godok Jonathan administration delayed elections for some time because of a Boko RAM insurgency in northwest at the time, northeast at the time. As it stands, do you think that they attacked? I think it's shared data saying 50 of its facilities having attacked. Do we have a situation that warrants such a fear in your opinion? Well, in my opinion, I think INEK should be held accountable because I don't expect an agency that had four years to plan coming up with excuses. We're talking about critical infrastructure here and we'll talk about critical infrastructure. I think INEK owe Nigerian duty of care to protect their own facility. That's what the independent national electoral commission, independent in the sense that they carry out their own activities themselves. They shouldn't expect any agency to interfere from looking at their own properties around the corner, around this country. What I expected for INEK to do is to carry out an assessment of their property across the country because from 2019 to now it's four years. If you have four years to plan, that tells you that for example, if you're going to a bank now, let me take for example a bank in Nigeria here, where you have the nairas, the dollars and whatever the case may be, you can't break in easily to rob the bank. INEK should start looking at voters card as a banking system. They should start looking at all their equipment as a banking system. They need to start integrating security design in their facility because if they come on air and start saying that their facility has been attacked or whatever the case may be, I will ask them a question. What are the security design you integrated during the construction of those facilities? Do you just pick up materials and take it to a local government and just dump it there where a criminal will just come, break in swiftly, cut those equipment away and you're coming to tell Nigerians that those items have been cut or that have been attacked? It's not accepted with any given client because as an agency, you know very well that this voters material, this voters card or equipment are critical to the development of the Nigerian state. They are critical to the success of the Nigerian democratic system. So it's not something you just take into, take to some given environment, just dump it there in the primary school, in the secondary school, or in the local government because I went to Ekeja local government some time pass and somewhere you can just break in and get into the facilities. We're talking about items that are critical to the survival of the Nigerian state. So for me, I don't think INEC have any excuse to give Nigerians because we have four good years. So again, Admission 1999 will be graduating, 2019 will be graduating this year, that's four years in the university. So INEC have four years to plan. They have four years to fortify their security system. They have four years to beef up the security of their infrastructure. Yeah, when I'm talking about beefing up all the infrastructure in all the country, we're talking about where those materials are kept. If you are keeping them in the premises, for example, like in this edifice, I think they should fortify that edifice because criminal, what they don't like is delay. For a criminal to carry out criminal activities, they have the opportunity. So what the criminals element are doing here is that they're exploiting the vulnerability of INEC. Your vulnerability is the criminal's opportunity. So don't give them that room to explain. The agency, the other commission, if anything happens, they have themselves to blame because they've given left loop holes for these criminals to exploit. To exploit, yeah. And looking at the situation, they know what is on ground, they know what they need to do. They know what they need to do. To counter what these criminals are doing. Yes. Desi, what I thought on this, because Dexon here is saying that they have four years and they know what they have to do. If anything happens, then I guess to blame. I do with Dexon, but I have a bit of different opinion on the part of whether we should blame INEC. I think for the security, we should blame the police instead of blaming INEC. I think the police, they know how to be active when they choose to be. For example, when there was an attack on INEC facility in the South East, they know that election is approaching. These facilities are pulmonary. So I think that at that point in time, those INEC facilities would have been identified as hotspots and the DSS, the military police would have provided adequate security for those facilities, but that has not been the case. And I began to wonder that, why should this be an attack on INEC facility? It's a signal that it cannot call in every other state because in Nigeria, the kind of politics we play is very, very lucrative. Everybody wants to go into politics for what they're going to gain soon. It takes an eye on the part of the politician. It's like a door or a door after a door. So that makes the facility of INEC honorable. So I think I will put the blame at the dose of the police for failing to provide adequate security. And that's one of the problems that INEC has been having over the years because the police, if they don't cooperate with INEC, definitely there's not much that INEC can do in the sense that, for example now, INEC has made a chance to try with the introduction of people's encouraging technology for the transparency of the election. But INEC is not in charge of security. It's working collaboratively with the police. So if INEC independence is compromised by the police, no much can be done. For example, we have a situation whereby in terms of logistics, INEC has to collaborate with NULTWU, the national union of road transport workers. And sometimes some of these transports in their state would align with politicians to sabotage the effort of INEC. In that instance, we can't really blame INEC because INEC has provided the election materials, ad hoc staff, and everything necessary. But their effort is now being sabotaged. So I think we need commitment from the security agencies and other agencies that INEC works with for us to have a big group conduct of the election. And that goes down to the table of the president and the inspector general of police. The president has said it repeatedly that he has given orders for the police to do their job. So I don't see any situation if there's any cessation running. The police and BDG are always active. So when there is now attack on INEC facilities, is it that the police intelligence system does not foresee it? You're saying the police is in a position to ensure that INEC facilities are protected and of course that elections are run smoothly outside. This is something that some have also said. The police have the guns, they have the AK-47s, they know what to do. I think it's not a security... We are getting it wrong here. The doctor is trying to make a point, but I think we're getting it wrong here. You invited me into the studio this morning. If you don't invite me, I will not be here. It is the duty of the INEC to invite the Nigerian security agent to protect their facility. The security agent cannot intrude in the activities of INEC. So the reason why they cannot intrude is if you don't invite them, they will not be there. Now this is how it is. What should have been done is very simple. I listened to the INEC security director some weeks ago on a TV station and he was trying to make some complaint. What that man should have done is to have projected risk assessments in all the given facilities here in Nigeria. Having carried out those risk assessment ascertain the vulnerability analysis of those risk assessments. Then send a report to the Nigerian police and the Nigerian military and tell them that XYZ facilities, XYZ properties, are prone and vulnerable to attack. We will need to project like 100 or 200 policemen in those facilities. In the last election, the Nigerian police projected 30,000 security agents to break down a floor order in that facility. So what INEC should have done is that in each of those facilities where we have those critical infrastructure, they should have carried out an assessment. Carry out crime mapping. Crime mapping the sense that when you go to look at maybe for example, Abia State for example, and you look, you see that maybe the threat assessment in Abia State is on the high rise. You informed the Nigerian police that hey, this is the report from our security department. The threat assessment in Abia State is very high. In XYZ location, we will need like 50 policemen to mount that, put it in writing, send it to the IGP and request for those men and do rightly, those men will be deployed to such facility. So the Nigerian police is not to be blamed. The Nigerian military is not to be blamed. It is the duty of INEC to carry out an assessment of that. It's the INEC's business. The money the federal government released was not released to the Nigerian police. The money the federal government released was not released to the Nigerian military. It was released to INEC. So INEC owns Nigerian duty of care to carry out an assessment of all the crime prone environment and inform the Nigerian police. For example, now if I'm perceiving a threat in my environment, the police are not everywhere to see. Myself, I will inform the police, hey, I'm suspecting, I'm saying some suspicious movement within my facility, please, I will need the attention of the Nigerian police. So if you don't call up the police to project security men in those crime prone environment or where those facilities are deployed, then INEC will continue to suffer attack. If you have 200 policemen, we have 724 local government, for example, and those items have been deployed in most of those local governments, what the INEC needs to do is to project those policemen in those facilities. But what I have found out the problem is that there is no effective risk assessment and vulnerability analysis of the property. If they have carried out such activity between 2021 and 2022, carry out this crime mapping to be able to identify the possible location that will be prone to attack, then they will send the letter to the Nigerian police that we need an effective protection strategy within this facility. Then this facility will be protected. So for me, INEC will be held responsible. All right. Gentlemen, the federal government had, as this morning, they gave the information mechanism of the government has been set in motion to counter what the senior official of INEC had to say about elections in volatile areas, volatile parts of the country, or red zones, if I want to call it that. Minister of Culture and Information Culture and Tourism, Al-Hajjilai Muhammad yesterday had to make that move. In a statement, he said that the elections, rather, will hold a shadow, adding that nothing has happened to alter the timetable. So the position of the federal government through the minister of information, as we speak now, is he's saying that elections will hold a shadow, that nothing will happen to alter the election, or nothing has happened, rather, that will alter the election. The information minister is also saying that security agencies have assured the nation of a peaceful atmosphere for the poor. So what are your thoughts on this, this new statement issued by the federal government to counter what that senior official of INEC said, which was, I think, his view as a qualified person, experienced person, an official of INEC, with information on what has been happening around the country. Do you think the federal government is just trying to gloss over this situation, or that indeed, Al-Hajjilai Muhammad is right? I'll start with you, Deje. I think the federal government is just trying to gloss over this situation because we've seen orders upon orders, statements upon statements. I think if the federal government is really sincere, the president should have worked with the National Assembly in the space of the seven and half years that this government has been in power to reduce the premium that would place on politics. People would attack INEC facilities based on interest, and this interest goes down to the interest of the politicians. But if the premium that would place on politics is quite low, definitely the politicians will not have interest. Some of them, instead of being politicians now, will go and face their business, maybe, or find a career in this civil service, or just find any other thing to do. But so far as the game is higher than the cost, there will always be an attempt to sabotage this system. Because the game right now, what politicians stand to gain, you can imagine somebody that's desperate to be a governor, a politician that has gone to bank to get a loan to make sure that he has the finance to win election. That politician becomes desperate. He becomes a political investor. He is getting the money to invest, knowing that if he is going to recoup way more. So I think that the president should have used the opportunity of this second term to reduce what politicians stand to gain by being in power. If the president has done that, definitely there will be less attack on any offices because you know that even though if you have the power, like we have been other clients, you cannot sabotage the system. You cannot embezzle funds. So I think government should move from words to action to make sure that the premium with this on politics is reduced so that definitely there will be less interest in politics and people will go there for service. In terms of the insecurity, why is it that during electoral period in Yobie, even the O'Quarram hotspots, there will be relative peace? How do the politicians maneuver their way with the O'Quarram boys, the insurgents? So it shows that the politicians, they know how to kind of like maneuver their way if they want to. But if the political space is quite uninteresting in terms of the financial renumeration and if the institutions of government is quite strong that you can't play God when you are in political power, then I think there will be less insecurity and there will be less attack for the next facilities. Their attack is for a purpose and that is to gain and retain power. You talked about political investment. We hear in this report that the federal government didn't see it coming and like you said has moved to allay the fears to say the election will hold. There's no plan to cancel or postpone the election. Do you agree with that? Is he a prophet to know what will happen ahead? Do you agree that the situation we've seen across the states with these 50 attacks does not mean elections will not hold? They definitely will hold as Mohammed is saying. Well, it's a forecast from Lie Mohammed and has right to his own views. For me, I think the election is going to hold. But there's possibility of postponements because we've had that several, 2015 it was postponed, 2019 it was postponed at 12, I'm not mistaken. And this time around, I also think it might be postponed. Like Dr. Deji made some very fantastic points when he was talking about political investment. One of the problems we saw from here in India, political brutality, because most of these criminal elements for me, I think they were being listed from political talks. Sometimes when you make use of these talks, and after the election you abandon them, those equipment they use in career, their talk activities, to use it to attack the society, to attack the state. If the election is postponed or if it's not postponed, the major thing is that 2020 election will definitely hold because I don't think we're going to hold it in 2024. It's definitely going to hold in 2023 because the president, the international community and this great nation, duty of care, it was this nation, the accountability to run this election because it was handed over, it gained this power from President Gulaw Jonathan and he needs to also leave a mark, credibility mark, so that we'll remember him for holding a free, credible election. Indeed, he had said last year that the will of the people must prevail in a general election and that is what exactly the government will do, given a marching order to security agencies. And I think on December 2 last year, the National Security Advisor Baba Ganamungunu had said that, since the president said this, we're sounding the warning to the political actors, politicians that won't tolerate anything. We are good at sounding the warning, it's belong. But is it just about the politicians? I mean even the politicians themselves are a threat, a endangered species as far as bandits are concerned, as far as terrorists are concerned, as far as unknown gunmen are concerned, the politicians themselves are hiding from these unknown gunmen. They created the problem themselves because sometimes we fail to think about the Nigerian states. If we have people who think about the Nigerian states, you understand that election is a win or lose. It's a game of two-faced, there's no draw in election. You either win or you lose. If it's a game of two-faced, I'm not talking about two-faced musicians here, if it's a game of two-faced, every politician needs to understand that they live to fight another day. But most times our politicians, what they do, they see this election as a do or die affair. They see it as, I need to recover my losses, I need to gain my losses. We've seen a lot of people throwing money around, throwing banters around, gaslighting everywhere. You're saying that they have the power, the politicians, to also make sure there is no violence. Oh yeah, they did this to talk to their followers and to talk to their people to actually do something about it. We see what happens, because I mean, Separatist group, IPUB had said, in the Southeast there will be no elections before now. We don't know if the game has changed a bit because of the emergence of PTOB, but the unknown gunmen phenomenon is still there. We have terrorists and bandits both in North and the South, East and West. Let's see what happens. Gentlemen, I want to thank you very much for joining us via Zoom from Singapore. We've had Dr. Moshala Deji, a political scientist, and I don't know if you're joining us from Clackey or Sentosa or any of those parts of Singapore. Dixon Osai has been here with me in the studio. From Nigeria. From Nigeria, which we so much love. From Victoria Island, Lagos. He's a global security analyst. Thank you, gentlemen, very much for your time. Thank you. We'll be back here with more discussions right here on the breakfast and plus TV Africa. Please stay with us.