 On behalf of USIP, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to everyone joining us today. My name is Lise Grande and I am the President of the United States Institute of Peace, which was established by Congress in 1984 as a nonpartisan public institute dedicated to preventing, mitigating, and helping to resolve violent conflict abroad. We're delighted to join with USAID to host today's conversation on the ruinous and potentially catastrophic food crisis the world is facing. This crisis has been growing for some time and it has a lot of causes, including the COVID pandemic, climate change-related natural disasters, and supply chain bottlenecks. But the main exacerbating cause right now is Russia's unprovoked war of aggression in Ukraine, which has impacted Ukrainian wheat production, increased the price of fuel, driven up global inflation, and further distorted global supply chains. It is important to be crystal clear about what is at stake. This food crisis represents one of the most serious threats to global peace and security we've faced in decades. Nearly 200 million people across the world are at grave risk of hunger disease in some places, perhaps starvation. The crisis carries the potential for driving in deepening conflicts within states and between them, and for destabilizing parts of the world which are already struggling and already very fragile. The international community has been alerted to this crisis by countries at risk, by intellectuals, policymakers, and activists, and organizations like the World Bank and the World Food Program, with its team of economists led by my colleague and friend, Dr. Arif Hussein. During today's discussion, we'll be looking deeper at the factors driving the crisis and the potential for conflict because of these and what we can do to stop the crisis from overwhelming the world. To help frame today's discussion, we're honored to share a message from Ambassador Isabel Coleman, who is serving with distinction as the deputy administrator for policy and programming in USAID. Ambassador Coleman guides USAID's crisis response and its efforts to counter the influence of China and Russia. As the head of program and policy oversight in USAID, Ambassador Coleman focuses on strategies for addressing the root causes of irregular migration and preventing famine and future pandemics, strengthening education, help democracy and economic growth, and improving responses to climate change. Prior to her current position, Ambassador Coleman served on the Biden Administration's transition team. She served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations for Management, Reform, and Special Political Affairs and as Chief Operating Officer of GiveDirectly, an international nonprofit tackling poverty by providing unconditional cash transfers to the extreme poor. We're very pleased to share with you a message from Deputy Administrator Coleman. We encourage everyone to join today's conversation using the hashtag at hunger and conflict. Good morning. First, my sincere thanks to USIP for holding this important and timely discussion. As everyone here well understands, Russia's war in Ukraine has pushed an already precarious situation with respect to global food security into a full-blown crisis. Even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this crisis was looming due to the growing number of climate shocks affecting food production, setbacks from the COVID-19 pandemic including enduring supply chain disruptions, and rising food and fertilizer prices. We well remember that the ripple effects of the 2007-2008 food and inflation crisis, when near record prices fueled protests and riots in 48 countries, led to more protracted conflict and instability. Today, we're bracing for a similar increase in conflict and unrest that we know so often follows such destabilizing events as we're seeing in Ukraine. The bottom line is that conflict too often is a driver of food insecurity. According to the UN, conflict was the primary factor driving crisis levels of food insecurity or worse for about three-quarters of the 193 million people experiencing acute food insecurity from all causes at the end of last year. These staggering numbers only continue to grow. The threat of starvation looms for hundreds of thousands of people with millions more at extreme risk. At USAID, we are evaluating, developing, and implementing responses that will protect the world's most vulnerable populations from catastrophic levels of food insecurity, exacerbated by the Russian Federation's actions, as well as severe drought in the Horn of Africa. USAID has long focused on the connection between fragility, conflict, and violence. More than 80% of the countries receiving USAID assistance are conflict-affected or insecure, and every country on the priority list for US food assistance in the near future is also experiencing conflict or deep fragility. Since Russia's war in Ukraine began, the United States has provided $2.8 billion to scale up emergency food operations in countries impacted by the food security crisis, including in vulnerable countries where conflict both threatens and arises from food insecurity. And just this week, President Biden announced $2.76 billion in supplemental funding, which will enable USAID to double down on efforts to address food insecurity, including by expanding Feed the Future Programming to eight new countries across Africa. Through Feed the Future, USAID has leveraged investments in agricultural innovations to build resilience and mitigate the impact of higher prices for commodities such as fertilizer. In Ethiopia, for example, Feed the Future Programming facilitated an 80% decrease in fertilizer wastage, while crop yields increased by up to 200% over a three-year period through the creation of a low-cost approach for rapidly developing recommendations for more effective fertilizer usage. Additionally, it's critical to understand and act on the dynamics of conflict and fragility, which we know can dramatically exacerbate food insecurity. That understanding and action must be a fundamental part of making sure our funding has the effect it's intended to have. It's the foundation of making sure we don't just give assistance, but that we deliver it effectively. Our goal is to make communities more resilient, so that ultimately, the need for the assistance that we provide diminishes over time. Thank you. And thank you, Deputy Administrator Coleman, for your message this morning, and for helping to provide a framework for the discussions that we are about to have with our expert panelists. Good morning, everyone. My name is Johnny Carson, and I am a senior advisor with the United States Institute of Peace. I am delighted to welcome you all to this important conversation on the food insecurity and conflict and the nexus between the two issues. I'd like to use the first part of our program this morning to talk with a leading economist and food security expert about the global food crisis and the impact that it is having on countries and regions around the world. To do that, we have invited Dr. Harif Hussein to join us. Dr. Hussein is the chief economist and director of the research assessments and monitoring division of the World Food Program. Before joining WFP, Dr. Hussein worked for the World Bank as an agro-economist. Dr. Hussein, we're delighted, absolutely delighted to have you with us today. I'd like to start our conversation with a question about the state of food security around the world. Even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the world was heading towards a colossal food crisis. Food insecurity was reportedly on the rise in Africa, the Middle East, and scattered parts of Asia. The Horn of Africa in particular is suffering from its longest drought in nearly four decades. Dr. Hussein, can you share with us how you think the war in Ukraine has compounded the effects of climate change and rising food prices in insecure countries? Thank you, Ambassador. Hello, everybody. I'm really honored to be here. Ambassador, let me just say that I've been in this business for the last 20 years. I've never seen anything like this before, and mind you, I was there during COVID as well. Do I say that? Let me just put some numbers behind what is being said. Before this crisis, food prices were at a 10-year high. Fuel prices were at a 7-year high. About 56% of low-income countries were in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress. Inflation in 45 countries upwards of 15% year on year. Many, many countries triple digits. Devaluation of currencies upwards of 35 countries. Currencies declined by more than 25% just in a year. This was the landscape of the world because of COVID when this unnecessary, unjust war started. The first message which this war sends is that in our world today, actions and reactions are no longer in the same place. You have war in Ukraine and people are terribly suffering in Ukraine, but millions upon millions of more people outside of Ukraine are also suffering far, far, far away. Why? Because this war has hit three main things. It has hit food, it has hit fuel, and it has hit fertilizer. The consequences we see right now, according to our numbers, in 2019, pre-COVID, there were about 135 million people who were in what we call hunger crises, bad state hunger crises. That number today is 345 million in 82 countries. 50 million people are in what we call hunger emergencies, meaning one step away from famine. And what scares me is that this is not about one, two, or five, or 10 countries. This is in 45 countries. So yes, I don't like to use the word unprecedented because every time I've done that we have found something bigger. But when you look back right now, this is truly unprecedented. Dr. Hussein, you've sketched a very dramatic and frightening picture for us all, and you've done it on a global basis. But can you tell us more specifically about which countries and which regions are being hurt the most by the lack of food, fuel, and fertilizer, are being hurt the most by the absence of these products or the increase in prices for them? Where are the countries most impacted among the 45 that you've talked about? The vast majority of them, one ambassador, this is another thing. The problem is that between COVID and this, it is no longer about just a few countries, traditional countries. It is so widespread. If I could generalize, I would say that if you were a poor country, if you were importing your food, if you were importing your fuel, if you were importing your fertilizer, if you are in debt, you're in trouble. Half of Africa is in that state. Several countries in Latin America, Central America in that state. Many countries in the Middle East in that state. So it is so widespread. And then the other thing, which is, we only focus right now on Ukraine. It doesn't mean all other prices stopped. What we are seeing right now in the Horn in East Africa, it reminds me of 2011 Somalia, particularly in the Somali region of Somalia, of Ethiopia, that belt, even parts of Kenya. That reminds me what is coming out of that in terms of the severity of drought. That reminds me of 2011. And those of you who don't know, 2011 was the last big famine, where 260,000 people in Somalia perished. And you know what was really scary about that was half of those people who died, they died before famine was declared. So this is not about, oh, it will happen. These are things which are happening. I think we need to very clearly realize that fact. And Ambassador, the other thing is, like the Assistant Administrator was saying, 70% of what we do is in places affected by conflict. So it's not only, you know, Ukraine is the, this war has literally put a whole lot more of fuel on the fire, which was already hot. Dr. Hussain, you said at least half of the countries in Africa are impacted. How many of these countries are you aware of that are food dependent, were food dependent and importers of grain from Ukraine and Russia that has now been cut off? Well, sir, let me just say that there are about 36 countries, many of them in Africa, which import upwards of 50% of their wheat requirements from Russia or Ukraine. And here the problem is, and this is a point of what we really want to make, is that right now what we are looking at is what we call an affordability issue. Meaning there is food in the world. It's just that it's not where it is needed. And it is not at a price which is affordable. So let's say if you were buying from Ukraine, now if you had the resources, you could say, okay, you know what, I can go to Canada to buy my wheat or I can go to Australia or I can go to Argentina to buy my corn. Sure. But what are you going to do? You're going to pay more than freight and you're going to pay more in time. And it's going to be more expensive, both in time and in money. And where is that expense going to go? You're going to pass it to the consumer. And if you're a person who's spending upwards of 50, 60, 70% of your income on food, how much space do you got upwards? What are you going to do? No health, no education, no schooling, no nothing. And by the way, it's not only food. It's also fuel. Everybody needs fuel and when fuel goes up, everything else goes up. So if we are seeing pain in upper middle income and high income countries of this through huge inflation, why aren't we seeing why would it surprise anybody that poorer countries are suffering a whole lot more just because they don't have a space? And it doesn't end at that because you say, okay, so why don't the governments help? Governments are tapped out because of COVID. This is why Ambassador, it is so important that these poor countries have access to financing facilities for food, for fuel, for fertilizer and these poor countries that the debt rescheduling continues that it was in COVID. So they have the resources to feed their own people. And I think if we can do some of these things, we are not going to end the pain, but at least we can minimize the pain and don't put people in a space where they have no choice but to get on the road, but to ride. Enough is enough. This is what we saw in 2008. This is what we saw in 2011, which turned, you know, it was one person in Tunisia who put himself on fire because they couldn't afford their food. That was the start of the Arab Spring. We are right there right now. Dr. Sain, I'd like to ask another question about what some countries are doing with respect to grain supplies that they have. About two dozen countries have imposed export restrictions on food since the Ukrainian invasion. India, one of the largest food producers in the world, has banned most wheat exports as a result of climate change and other farming issues. How should the international community react to those states that are not exporting grain when there is such a demand for food globally? What should the United States and other countries do about this kind of a challenge? Sir, what we have, Ambassador, what we have seen from 2008 and 11 again and that putting these export bans and giving import subsidies, they backfire. They backfire not only inside the country because suddenly, you know, the prices are depressed because what was supposed to go out isn't going out, but they are also and obviously create a significant impact for the rest of the world in increased prices because now, because of that ban, you cannot buy it from that country. So you have to go elsewhere and elsewhere, they were already supplying somebody, right? So now you are there. So that increases the price for you and for whoever went there, right? So it's very easy to understand how it plays. But here's another thing. It increases the transaction cost, meaning if you say there is an export ban, it doesn't mean that the food didn't go out. It just went out at a higher price depending on where you are, right? So for me, the biggest impact of all of this is it is the copycat effect. So I do it so you feel compelled to do it. Also, why? Because you think maybe I know something that you don't. So why don't I do it as well? And I think this is the risk. This is the danger. And for me, in particular, I mean, if you look at vegetable oil, that's the export ban on vegetable oil or palm oil. That is a significant consequences for the poorest of the poor because that's what they need. So it's the stable commodities and it's the oil. That's the diet. So I mean, when you raise the prices of both, what do you expect them to do? I think that is something where we need to make as much noise as possible. But also, we need to appreciate another thing, Ambassador, on the positive. After many, many years of hard work through WTO, to finally give World Food Program a waiver from export prohibitions and export restrictions. That will go a long way for us in order to provide the food to different places and at a cost which is reasonable. So that is something which I feel like while we're talking about export ban on one side, we need to also acknowledge some good which has happened. The world has come together and said, yes, okay, World Food Program for humanitarian food commodities, you have waiver from export prohibitions and export restrictions. Dr. Sain, you've mentioned two in your earlier comments that approximately 60% of the world's undernourished people live in areas affected by conflict. We know that conflict often drives hunger. In today's context, what can you tell us about the inverse? How does hunger drive conflict? And how are we seeing this dynamic play out in different parts of the world? Sir, I think hunger conflict has always obviously easily driven hunger. What doesn't have enough research, but which is we see it all the time is hunger-driving conflict. I would submit to you that if you look at 2008, it was riots about food. If you look at Syria crisis, it was a drought which started with the fuel, the young people behind what happened in Syria after. If you look at their full crisis, it was a nomadic sedentary people crisis again out of hunger. So there is no shortage of examples. It's just that it wasn't sufficiently documented, but I think now we are at a state where people accept that and say, you know what, it goes both ways. Conflict drives hunger and hunger drives conflict. Look at Afghanistan. Hunger is an outcome variable, no? Because of something happened, you're hungry. And when you're hungry and your children are hungry, you're forced to do whatever. And some of the things which people do are migrate, but not migrate out of it, you know, like me to you ask, but more like migration out of destitution. I like to say that if you have your only two choices are starvation and migration. Every single time you pick migration, it doesn't matter who you are. You know, and this is something where it is about lessons learned. Very good example for me of that is you look at the Syrian war. 2011, it started the war. People left for Germany or Europe almost end of 2015. If they just wanted to migrate, why didn't they do it earlier? We started all of this. And the bottom line of that study basically was that most people, they don't want to leave their homes. Number one, but when there is no other choice, then people will take drastic measures like putting themselves and their families on a boat, which may have a 5% chance of sinking, and put them on that or standing on top of the Sahel, knowing that passing through Libya may mean that you're enslaved or maybe you're raped, but you still do it. How bad things have to be, where they are for people to make such choices. I think this is what we need to understand. Going back again to the point that when we don't sort out these issues, when they happen and where they happen, we end up paying a thousand times more, not only economically ambassador, but also politically. And we see that time and again. Sorry for the long answer, but I think it is really important. No, I think it's an important response because in Africa we have seen food become of the driver for conflict. Justice conflict can become a driver for food. Dr. Hussain, given the global challenges and the shortages of resources to deal with them, where should the international community be focusing its efforts? Where should it be working the hardest and what should it be doing the most? For me, first and foremost, it is about saving lives. First and foremost. In order to do that, we need to, it's not only saving lives of people, WFP is assisting. It is about saving lives of people who are at huge risk. In order to do that, we need to have some medium, near-term decisions, which is essentially having enough resources. Let me just put this here. I like to say that when WFP is setting records, it's not a good thing for the world. And since 2020, WFP has been setting records. 2020, we assisted 115, 16 million people. In 21, 128 million people. Right now, we plan to assist 152 million people. The bill to assist them, 152 million people, is $22 billion. We are about half funded. When the world's prices go up, so do ours. Our prices compared to 2019, our costs are up by 44%. In numbers, that is $952 million, which is enough to feed 4 million people for a whole year every single day. Now, why I say this is, that's what we need to do. First and foremost, that 50 million people or these 152 million people in hunger crisis, that is our moral and economic responsibility to do that. If we are serious about the consequences on destabilization and mass migration, sorry. That's something which is important. Means we need to bring the food prices down. How can we do that in the near-term? We can't just grow more, it takes time. What do we need to do? We need to make sure that somehow people see arts melt and people see the need to open the black sea at the commercial scale for essential food and fuel fuel and agricultural inputs. If that happens, that will have a dent on the prices. What we want to avoid at this stage is that this affordability crisis I talked about doesn't turn into availability crisis come next year because there was not enough fertilizer in Africa or because there was not enough fertilizer in East Asia and suddenly come next year, we're talking about shortages of food and what that does to their prices. Short window, it's very time-sensitive. It's agricultural seasons and people need to pay attention to that right now. That to me are some of the things we need to do right away. In the medium term, we need to be talking about diversification of our export base. One of the pain points we have is that our exports of basic food commodities like wheat, like rice, like corn, like soybean are held by a handful of countries. Maybe 10 countries hold 90% of the exports. Worse yet, when you look at the stocks for these commodities, it's less than five countries holding 90% of these stocks. Any shock to one of these countries and we see the impact all over the world. Ambassador, you would not have an investment portfolio which has only one stock or one asset class. You would never have that. You'll fire your financial advisor if they were doing that. But you let it happen for global food secure and not a new problem. How do we begin to diversify? How do we begin to build resilience? How do we begin to build capacity? How do we help to move beyond the need simply to save lives and to bring down prices and to open ports? What do we see as the best way to ensure that we can avoid a repetition of the kinds of crises that we're in today and how do we move beyond where we are, where a shock, one shock in a particular region can have catastrophic implications for millions of people around the world? Sir, one, like I said, 70% of people are impacted because of conflict. We need to start rethinking war. We need to start rethinking war and its consequences and to whom? It's no longer somebody else's problem in some part of the world which you're not worried about. Ukraine is a classic example of that, seen it before. That's one. Sir, second one for me is rethink our agricultural policies. Rethink our energy policies sitting in Europe, not just from the environmental standpoint, but from economic security and national security standpoint. The problem is that what I'm saying, I could have said that after 2008, food and fuel crisis, and it was equally valid. And after 2011, it was still valid. But the issue is that many of the things we are talking about which need sorting out, which need solving, don't take months, they take years. And what happens is that as soon as the shock goes away, we forget about it. Till next time. But I'm hoping that the third time is the charm and really all these nice good initiatives, like the farm initiative, like the G7 initiative, that we will stick with them to bring them to fruition. And if we are able to do that, then next time around, maybe we are in a better situation. Maybe we cannot end the wars, but maybe we can deal better with their consequences for the people with very little hope. And the last thing I wanted to say, Ambassador, it's not just about us. It is about tomorrow. Because a lot of things which happen today, a lot of the kids who don't get fed, they don't reach their potential tomorrow. That is a very big problem in Africa. That is also a very big problem in many parts of Asia and Central America. I think we need to take this seriously. Dr. Sain, thank you very much. You have been enormously generous with your time this morning. And you have given us a lot of food for thought. Clearly, we see that conflict drives hunger and famine. But we've also heard from you that food and security can also drive conflict. It is absolutely essential that the global community as a whole recognize the enormous challenge that is before us in ending conflict, ending unnecessary conflict, and also building up food security and food resilience in areas where it is lacking today. Again, thank you very, very much for your comments and for the work that you do at WFP in trying to ensure that those who are in need of food are able to realize it and receive it. Thank you very much for your comments this morning. Thank you, Ambassador. I appreciate it. We're going to now move on to a different part of our program this morning. I'd like to turn now to introduce two very distinguished panelists who will be joining us for a closer examination of how food and security impacts conflict dynamics in specific parts of the world. Hanine Hasadat is a lead specialist for human development and social protection in the World Bank's Middle East and North Africa region division. She previously coordinated the World Bank's response to the Syrian civil war and has written several books on the conflict. Abdi Annett is the managing director of Las Fort Consulting Group. He previously served as minister of planning and international cooperation in Somalia where he also acted as a senior advisor to the president of Somalia. He is a journalist by profession and has worked for the BBC, The Voice of America, and Al Jazeera English. I want to thank both Hanine and Abdi for joining this discussion today. I would like to start our conversation by asking about the interplay of food security and conflict at the regional level. The current food crisis is hitting at a time when many of the world's most fragile countries, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, are already grappling with a daunting array of challenges undermining food security. These range, of course, from COVID-related supply chain disruptions and extreme weather and drought to soaring energy and fertilizer costs. At the same time, both regions are impacted seriously by violent conflicts in Syria, in Yemen, in Somalia, and Ethiopia, and also in the Sahel region, as well as specifically in places like Lebanon and Mali. I'd like to ask from a regional perspective, how might we understand the complex interplay between conflict and food insecurity? I would like to start with Hanine and ask how she sees the interplay between food insecurity and conflict playing out in a part of the world that she knows best, and that is Lebanon. Thank you very much, Ambassador. I want to send my appreciation to the USIP for convening this very important and topical meeting, and hopefully that we will have a good discussion. I very much learned from what Dr. Adif was saying, and in a way what I will be reflecting on picks up very much from what he's been saying. So the Middle East, I would speak more generally about the Middle East first, and I can dive in later into Lebanon. I mean, what we talk about the relationship between conflict and food security, food insecurity, from a standard conflict theory point of view, price shocks, like what's happening now with the global food crisis, can generate frustration and unrest. It's not clear whether these grievances turn actually into straight-up conflict. I think Dr. Adif even mentioned that we don't have enough evidence of that, but what it probably needs to become more open conflict are leaders to mobilize, activists to either build on that or exploit that sentiment for it to become organized violence for conflict. However, definitely unrest can brew, and especially in countries or in a region where already there are many other grievances and economic, political, social issues, so this would add on top. So it is obviously very volatile and a shaky situation. In the MENA region in particular, what is happening? One thing I think it's important to keep in mind is that MENA is a very heterogeneous region. In fact, there are some people that even challenge the notion of calling it one region, because you have all the way from conflict and war and very poor countries, whether it be Yemen and Libya, Syria, extremely fragile middle-income or war-middle-income countries such as Lebanon and Tunisia and Jordan, to some extent. And then you have a group of oil exporters in the Gulf region in particular, but also in Libya. And the impact of the, let's say the war of Ukraine and Russia will be heterogeneously felt by the group of countries. In fact, a recent analysis in the World Bank looking just at the economic impact overall, there's a net positive. I know that sounds weird, but that's basically because of the large hydrocarbon exporters gain, gained by the countries that export oil and gas, i.e. the GCC countries. But as I said, it's very heterogeneous. So you unpack that and you will find a set of very, very fragile group of countries which are being affected through several impacts of the conflict. One is the food price shots already mentioned, oil and gas price surges also, which itself has a feedback effect on food and price of fertilizer and agricultural production. But then you also will have a phenomena of flight of money to more or private capital to more safe havens, if you will, wherever those may be. There's an impact of remittances. This is a region where the oil importers rely very heavily on remittances from diaspora that work in the Gulf countries. Now that could have a positive effect on those countries as earnings or in the Gulf country increase that might mean higher remittances or higher ability of diaspora to remit funds to their country. And then of course tourism would be impacted. Egypt, for example, highly impacted just generally, but also had very vibrant tourism from Russia. So there's multiple impacts that are affecting the region very severely, specifically on food, which is more of the topic that we have. While the MENA is only 6% of the world's population, it is however 20% of the world's acutely food insecure people. So a very high, higher proportion than its population of acutely food insecure people. Most of the MENA countries are net food importers, including the Gulf countries, very few actually produce their own grain or generally food products. And hence it is very vulnerable to the kind of fluctuations in food, global food prices. And then when we kind of looked at the different countries to see who are really the most vulnerable, and we looked at several indicators here. One is the share of wheat imports from Ukraine and or Russia, the grain reserves, how many months of stock they have, the domestic grain production, and then food price inflation. Putting all those together in an index, Lebanon not surprisingly comes out to be the most vulnerable in the Middle East. First, 96% of its wheat was imported from Ukraine and Russia. So you can just imagine the kind of stop, sudden stop that took place there. It has less than one month of grain reserves. It's only our main silos were exploded in the port of Beirut explosion, adding insult to injury. And of course, very little production and so on. So Lebanon ranks up very high Yemen and then Syria, the very sort of red, red countries. But then you also have Egypt, very vulnerable, already experiencing shocks, Tunisia as well, Morocco and Iraq, even though it is an oil exporter. The countries which are a bit better off are Jordan, primarily because it has 15 to 18 months of grain reserves. So maybe that's one lesson for the future. Countries build up here grain reserves. Djibouti has about six months. Syria about four months. So heterogeneous situation, but very severe situation existing within that. Will this lead to conflict? I mean, really it's very hard to say, but as I mentioned, many of these countries already have barely coming out of COVID, barely coming out of their own high debt and fiscal situations, the financial crisis. So it is, it is anything's possible. It is a very, it's a high risk situation. Unlikely will lead to an Arab Spring as such. But this is, you know, an international assessment for the Mana region. No, I mean, that's a great overview. But it sounds clearly like the food insecurity in the region is a significant challenge. And while it may not, in fact, spark conflict, it is, in fact, a challenge that must be dealt with in order to improve the lives of people and reduce the prospects for conflict in the future. And can I turn to Abdi now and ask whether he can provide us a bit of perspective on what is happening in the Horn of Africa and particularly in Somalia. The Horn of Africa today, parts of it are suffering the worst drought in the last four decades. Somalia has also been a country in conflict for most of the last three and a half decades. What is the nexus between food insecurity and conflict in the region? And how has the situation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine impacted the Horn and particularly Somalia and its neighbors? Thank you, Ambassador. Good morning. Good afternoon, colleagues. I want to first appreciate the USIP for organizing this timely and important discussion on the global food security crisis as well as the impact that is having on issues of conflict and security. I want to echo my colleagues, Dr. Arif, as well as Hanin, on their overall conceptualization of the challenges that were brought about by the war in Ukraine, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Like many countries in this part of the world, Somalia specifically where I am right now, but also the broader Horn of Africa region was importing significant portions of its food from Ukraine. And currently, the impact that is now having is profoundly and acutely felt across the region, but more specifically in Somalia where I have been following more closely. The profound effect that the food insecurity is having on this region cannot be understated. And it's having, I would say, adverse impact on three levels. The first level is the food insecurity is currently has doubled, if not tripled in some cases, the percentage of food insecure people across this region, and more specifically, again, in Somalia, where I believe the latest UN numbers, WFP and other UN agencies numbers are that about half of the population of Somalia, it's about 12 to about 15 million people, but half of the population is now food insecure. And about a third are on the brink of famine. And this is a combination of the food insecurity as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the skyrocketing prices of fuel, but also, as you had just mentioned, Ambassador Carlson, the drought. The government here in Somalia, just in the last few days, said that this drought is the of the 40 or so droughts that had been recorded in the last century here in Somalia. This one is potentially the worst. And it's still unfolding in the country. And that means, as Dr. Arif said earlier, this could be in the same level of, or it could trigger the same level of famine as the one in 2011, in which over a quarter of a million people died because of that famine. And so the situation is extremely desperate. And the fact that food prices, as they were, also have doubled, and in some parts of this country have tripled, means that even more people are simply food insecure at this point in time. The second level that the food security is impacting is it's effectively exasperating, or in some cases, triggering conflict across this region. But again, I will focus on Somalia, where I know more about. It is the situation right now, is that in many regions where the communities are agro-pastoralists who relied heavily on farming and livestock. And because of the ongoing drought, which as I said is one of the worst droughts that had been reported in this country, communities are already competing over bigger resources. And this is creating all sorts of conflicts at the local level, at localized levels in communities across the country, and in some cases across the region. The fact that the available amount of food is so little and insufficient to communities, food is now becoming a source of conflict across many parts of Somalia, and indeed the wider one of Africa at this point. And then the third element I want to talk about is the political aspect of all of this. The port of Africa is now going through a very interesting political time, whereby a number of the countries are either having elections in the coming weeks, like in Kenya, where presidential elections are scheduled for the 9th of August. And Somalia had just concluded a very protracted electoral process that went on for about a year and a half. And so this has compounded the broader challenges facing communities across this region. Ethiopia is going through very difficult time, internal conflict still impacting greater parts of Ethiopia in Tikrai and in Amhara and Oremo and other regions of Ethiopia, where some conflicts are still active and others are emerging. And so this is compounding the challenges that the political challenges are aggravating the humanitarian situation in those countries. And that is now the reality. Now, what are the key things that can be done? Well, certainly Dr. Arif and then Hanin and others have spoken about it, but certainly the conflict in Europe, in this case in Ukraine, is having a direct adverse impact on many parts of the world, but specifically on one of the most vulnerable regions around the world, which is the Horn of Africa. And unfortunately, even though this part of the world should have been food secure and should have been able to rely on its fertile ground and farming and so on, as we know, there are a lot of developmental issues around that. But at the moment, I think it will be very critical not only to deliver urgent humanitarian support, but also to think about really how to avoid a situation like this, whereby one part of the world, a conflict in one part of the world can adversely impact in another part of the world in such a bad way that it is actually impacting right now. So allow me to pause here, Ambassador, and hand over back to you for reflections. Thank you. Thank you very much. Abdi, you mentioned that Somalia had recently elected a new president, President Hassan Sheikh. How will the current situation of food insecurity in Somalia impact his ability to carry out the economic and political reforms that he has promised? What does this do to his ability to move forward? And what does this do to his ability to combat El Shabaab? That's a great question, Ambassador. And as you know, Hassan Sheikh is not a new president, so to speak. He was a president between 2012 to 2017. So this is his second term, so to speak. And that gives him greater experience than most other people would have had. I'm pleased to say that the president is putting this humanitarian crisis at the front and center of his agenda already. In 10 days after he was elected, he appointed a high-profile special envoy on humanitarian and drought affairs, someone who's very well known in this country, who's already been engaging the international community quite robustly to not only raise awareness about the issue, but mobilize resources to support vulnerable communities. But you're absolutely right to say that the president's ambitious agenda on stabilization, security, fighting El Shabaab is certainly going to be hampered partially by this ongoing disaster and drought because El Shabaab essentially thrives on the vulnerability of communities across the country. And they would like to always demonstrate that it's the failure of the government when, in this case, we know very well that it's a combination of a conflict in Ukraine and the failure of the rain season in the country. So it's going to be an uphill battle for the president to tackle the humanitarian situation. And at the same time, confront El Shabaab, but I'm pretty confident that he would be able to do that as he's already laid out. Relatedly, just the basic commodities, the prices of basic commodities including food are skyrocketing in Somalia. The Central Bank here issued a statement two days ago where they said that the prices of food have tripled in the last few months alone since the war in Ukraine, meaning that it's out of the reach of the vast majority of the population, which is, as I said, already food insecure and is surviving on support from international organizations. So I think it's going to be a very difficult start for the new president, but he's appointed a new prime minister and they're forming a cabinet right now. And it's expected that with the support of the international community, they're able to confront those challenges hand in hand with the war against El Shabaab. Thank you, Abdi. Can we switch back to Hanin in the MENA region in the Middle East and ask how can the international community best respond to the challenges of food insecurity in the region and how can it apply a conflict mitigation lens to the resolution of some of the challenges there? Thank you very much. So I'd like to start addressing this question by quoting the Secretary General of the United Nations recently said, to break this deadly dynamic of conflict and hunger, we need to invest in political solutions to end conflicts, prevent new ones, and build sustainable peace. And this actually very much reminds me of the joint report of the UN and the World Bank a few years ago, Pathways to Peace. So what he went on to say is most important of all, we need to end the war in Ukraine. This is kind of obvious to everyone. And it also reminds me of the Syrian conflict, which was mentioned earlier, where once again, I mean, we, the international community have been working for years to try to address the issue of displacement and support the refugees. But in the end, unless Syria becomes stable, conflict is stopped, subsides, people can go back safely and honorably to their homes, we would not really, it will continue, the misery will continue and the poverty. So similarly for the situation being created now, need to silence the guns and promote peace. This is what Secretary General said. Secondly, underscoring the importance of protecting the humanitarian access and essential goods and supplies for civilians. This is, of course, what also that we have been working on. But it's more broadly and for MENA, we need to ensure that there is a supply of food and grains and what have you. Obviously, in the short run, there's not going to be that easy, but we need to plant the seeds. So just speak for production and for other areas like Morocco is a country with great potential for growing, almost becoming maybe a food hub. But then we also, so this might, we have to work on the supply side as an international community, but then there's also programs that can help on the demand side. You have to work directly to support households because with these kind of price increases, how do you, how can you bring them down? One of the ways at least is to, for households, especially poor and vulnerable households, you provide them with social protection, with social assistance, cash transfers, this can help at least for their consumption pattern, stabilize prices. So this is also very important. And many international organizations are working on providing, supporting such programs, the VFP supports it, World Bank, and so on. I'd actually like to remind, and I was looking at a statistic today that in the COVID, two years of COVID from January 2020 to 2022, the globally, there were $3 trillion spent on social protection program. This includes, of course, the developed economies as well. And it was a huge increase globally in using cash transfer. Most of those social protection programs were cash transfers to families, not all, but the majority of it. And nevertheless, had a lot in terms of alleviating the impact of COVID because people were sitting at home, no more jobs, what have you. This is other than the health response, of course. So, and we've learned from that, even just within the short two years, we've learned how to do that, how to scale up, what are the delivery mechanisms, how to do the implementation. So I think now this can be used to learn for the helping countries with addressing the food crisis. So I think that is very important. But then you have, in many countries, like elsewhere, already very distorted economies. You have economies that have subsidies, very large subsidies for energy and for food. Now, this is a double-edged sword. These subsidies, to some extent, might have been stabilizing prices or holding prices down. But it is at a huge fiscal cost because it means the countries have to, the governments, the budget, is picking up the difference between the subsidized local costs and international. And as international prices increase, then obviously this subsidy that the governments pay increases. And that is a huge burden on countries which are already have fiscal issues and debt. And so there are ways, these are also reforms that need to be addressed, moving to more targeted approaches. And I mentioned already, for a medium term, supporting domestic agri-food production and where it may be, helping countries think about agriculture risk management and food reserve management, how to manage that. And I think another area that would be helpful for many countries in the region is kind of technical assistance, analytics, monitoring of prices. This is very important and very useful for policy making. So investing in better data and monitoring the food security situation is also important. So I mean, I think to answer your question, to summarize, Ambassador, there's a global response that needs to come together in the national community to try to find an end to this war. But then there are regional as well as country-level approaches that need to be pursued. Thank you. Anin, thank you very, very much. If I can switch back to Abdi for a moment to ask how he sees the regional response to the food and security. Are the sub-regional organizations doing their part in alerting communities to the threat that food security imposes? And how are they responding? Yeah, thank you, Ambassador. So the regional organization in the Horn of Africa is IGOT, as you know, and they have been sounding the alarm over the past few months about the threat of drought, but also food insecurity in the region. In terms of what they can do, I mean, their resources are quite limited, but I think they've been very good at least at communicating this with the public and trying to engage other international organizations that are more capable in helping with a response like WFE and other organizations. The African Union, on its part, it's just a larger continent here, has been trying to also raise the issue of food insecurity across the continent. Although in political terms, as you know, the African Union has been somewhat reticent, I would say, about the war in Russia and the war in Ukraine, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and how to even frame that from a purely political standpoint. As you know, Russia has a strong relationship with a number of African countries, and so that has been a bit of a sensitive issue for a lot of African countries who are avoiding to say anything that appears quite negative on Russia. I think the important thing is what Hanin just said, which is, how do we create sustainable systems to avoid a repeat of this situation, because we're almost certain that something else would happen somewhere around the world. Or as we now know, the droughts are very cyclical in this part of the world. They do happen every few years. So how do we build sustainable resilience systems is the key question. And I would say both regional entities, as well as governments in the Horn of Africa, have not done as a good job as they should have been able to try and prepare for sustainable systems that can withstand shocks like this. A lot of these countries, say Ethiopia, or Kenya, or even Somalia, despite the fact that Somalia was in a conflict state for now three decades, should have been food secure, should have been able to grow their own food. I mean, for example, in Somalia, I don't have the exact number, but I know that the vast majority of food consumed in this country is still imported. It's much cheaper to import food than to grow it locally. And that's, frankly, a tragic situation if you think about it. So we need to think about building those resilient systems. And regional entities and organizations are not entirely equipped to this response. I mean, EGAT, as you know, Ambassador Carson was, in fact, established precisely for this reason, not for political reasons. When they were established about 40 years ago, in 1986, I believe it was to respond to natural calamities like droughts, but also to be able to build resilient systems. And unfortunately, one cannot say that it has achieved that objective, although it's been a lot better in the last few weeks. Now, another sort of big element in all of this Ambassador and colleagues is the issue of climate change and the impact that it's actually having on food insecurity, on cyclical droughts, and the ability of states to build sustainable systems. You know, unfortunately, the whole issue of climate change and climate security and environmental issues is not at the top of the agenda of these government. Still, as it should have been, EGAT and African Union and other regional organizations are trying to do their best to try to raise awareness. And just to give you an example, Somalia doesn't even have a ministry of environment. And I think the new cabinet now, which will be formed in the coming two to three weeks, will probably have one after so many of us have been raising awareness about this issue. This is inseparable from the food insecurity and from droughts and other conflicts we're having. And finally, if you allow me to make one final point here, which is to go back to the nexus between food insecurity and conflict in this part of the world, it is, in fact, a real problem. And we've recently done a study where we looked at the relationship between the nexus between climate change, food insecurity and conflict. And in one region of Somalia called Southwest East State, which also tends to be the most vulnerable state within the Union, the vast majority of localized conflicts were, in fact, driven by these three factors, well, mainly two factors really, climate change and food insecurity, we're driving conflicts over land and pastoral land and so on and so forth. So this is a real emergency and a real policy problem for our government, but also for governments. If you go to Ethiopia today, a lot of conflicts between different states in Ethiopia are about land and food and so on and so forth. Back to you, Ambassador. Thank you, Abdi, for that. And you're absolutely right. EGAD was, in fact, established as a drought prevention and mitigation organization originally and has now become more of a political organization. But let me turn to Hanin and ask whether the sub-regional and regional organizations in the Middle East and North Africa are responding to the food insecurity and conflict crisis. How are they responding to the nexus of climate change and food insecurity and the crisis that's been brought about by the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Well, unfortunately, I can't say they're responding very proactively. In fact, the MENA has weak regional institutions. This has been something that for decades been trying to strengthen and particularly under the Arab League, but that is more of a political institution than an economic that now, of course, there are regional development banks and they are active, of course, Islamic Development Bank, the Kuwait Fund, these are the regional international organizations, but these are development funds. And then there's African Development Bank as well, where North Africa also falls. So I actually think there's a lot of work to be done in the MENA region in terms of regional cooperation, regional, I don't want to go as far as say regional integration because that is almost an impossibility, but and it's not the first time this has been prioritized. However, unfortunately, there's a lot of political differences among the countries that inhibit this kind of cooperation. It may be this will be the silver lining of this yet another crisis. And all I can say is that, yeah, this is their weak institutions and it could, long way to improve in terms of now the region is not left alone. Of course, as I mentioned, there's regional development banks, there's international organizations, there's the UN who are all jumping in to provide as much support in this area. I mean, thank you very much for that response. We are now moving into a transitional period where we've asked our audience to raise questions. And we have in fact gotten a couple of questions from the viewing audience that I would like to share with you and to seek your responses on. The first question that I have is how can we fight against using hunger as a weapon? The blockade of Ukraine gets the most attention, but Yemen and Ethiopia have also been pushed into humanitarian crises by conflict related blockades. That's from one of our listeners. Any, Abdi, any comment? Aneen? I think we have more qualified colleagues to speak to that. And I saw, thank you, Ambassador. Aneen, do you want to? I mean, I think this is an important issue that the international community needs to come around. And through advocacy, through lobbying, ensuring that exactly what this person is saying that hunger isn't used as a weapon. And I think, yes, I mean, the UN has got to play a role, of course, other friendly countries. I think it's very important to, in this crisis of Russia, Ukraine, which nobody sees an end to, honestly, in the near term, hence everything we've been talking about in terms of shocks will continue for a while, that all effort is made by the international community so that vulnerable countries, Yemen, Malia, many, do not really suffer more than they are suffering. I believe it's really a human, humanitarian, humanistic, and absolutely critical that the international community come around this issue to find, in the end, a political solution has to be found for this so that the bleeding stops. Back to you, Ambassador. Okay. I have another question. Thank you, Aneen. With a unique and specific access to vulnerable communities and conflict zones, how can the humanitarian community contribute to and develop sustainable and resilient systems? How can the humanitarian community contribute to and develop sustainable and resilient systems? Maybe I can speak to this, Ambassador, because I was just saying something about that a bit earlier. I think the agenda for building more sustainable systems primarily falls on states. They have to lead, but the humanitarian community can partner with the states on that agenda. This is a critical agenda. In my view, this is what would, in fact, distinguish between us collectively failing on building sustainable systems to confront challenges related to climate change, food insecurity, or simply building the necessary systems. I think the humanitarian organizations and development organizations like the World Bank and African Development Bank and others are in a unique position to support that process, that agenda, that states. Again, I repeat that states must lead those by identifying gaps, but also developing policies and procedures, building institutions that are aimed at tackling these challenges. Let's talk about climate change as a main driver of these issues and put that as an agenda in these states, especially in vulnerable countries. I think it's important to highlight here that oftentimes there are certain allegations against the humanitarian organizations in some of our countries that they are potentially perpetuating these situations. For example, you will hear in Somalia and Ethiopia a lot that farming communities would say that humanitarian organizations are saturating the market with food and that we're unable to then sell our locally produced food. Now, I'm not in a position to say whether that's true or not, but I think there is clearly a need to improve understanding between local communities and international humanitarian organizations to work together as partners in developing these systems. Of course, humanitarian organizations feel the obligation to respond to crises like this when they do happen, and sometimes some farming communities might misinterpret that as a point of saturating the market and whatnot. So the partnership is necessary, but leadership still belongs to states to lead the agenda. Thanks, Abdi. Anina, I've got a question for you from a viewer, and it says to build on your earlier comment and statement that Jordan is a positive example of a country doing better or doing right. Where do you see countries actually taking positive steps to improve their resilience? I guess they want to say where are there other examples of countries actually taking positive steps to improve their resilience? Right. So yeah, I mentioned Jordan because they have invested in grain silos from years ago, and therefore today have the supply. But that's obviously not the only way. The other area where countries positively can have invested in a way to build their resilience is where they've built adequate and adaptive social protection systems so that when crises like these come, they are ready to scale up. They have the systems, they have the databases, the registries, the payment methods. There are quite a few examples, as I mentioned, there are many countries around the world who in COVID expanded their social assistance programs in the region. Egypt has, Jordan's another example, Lebanon recently has done that. So this is also another obviously area that builds resilience and helps households be ready in a way for the next, but this is not enough of course because you need then to help people into jobs, especially farmers. And we know that a cultural sector will be affected to the different pricing increases and the like. Farmers are a vulnerable group and can be also and will be further impoverished. Therefore, programs that can promote livelihood for farmers. And there are also examples of that, but they tend to be small and really should be expanded. So there are lessons out there or good experiences that can be built on. And I believe this is what we have to look at where that is and scale it up and do cross fertilization with other countries and the like. Abdi, could I ask whether you think there are any countries in Africa or in the East Africa or Greater Horn of Africa region that are taking positive steps to build resilience and to put in place measures to deal with conflict and climate induced food insecurity? I think a good example really is Kenya in the region in that it has certainly slightly more advanced and more sophisticated, building more sustainable systems to confront those challenges related to food insecurity. Much like what Hanin just said about Jordan, there are some of these systems in place now in Kenya. I think the key point here to be made is it is about politics as well. So getting the politics correct is essential to addressing conflict of all types, whether they are political conflicts, but also food insecurity triggered conflicts. Remember, food insecurity can exasperate existing conflicts and can also trigger conflicts, but countries that have managed their politics better are a lot, tend to be more sustainable like Kenya when we talk about this region. Countries that are struggling to get the politics right and have all other types of conflicts going on, like Somalia and Ethiopia, are struggling to build the necessary sustainable system. So I think we need to focus a lot on ensuring that our politics is correct. I mean, I lived in Jordan for a number of years when I worked for the UN myself and Hanin is correct. I mean, that's a country that is actually doing incredible work, partially because it is a fairly stable country in a very volatile, otherwise volatile region. So I think we need to focus on that. It is about making sure that we do not allow politics to get in the way of development and ultimately by humanitarian response. What makes humanitarian response in our region not much more difficult is that our politics tends to be very complex and volatile as well. Abdi, thank you very much. Both Abdi and Hanin, we're coming up to time and I want to thank both of you for your outstanding contributions and insights to the discussion that we've just had. There is no doubt that there is a strong nexus between climate change, conflict, and the ongoing issues that drive the food insecurity. I want to thank you again for your thoughtfulness and your time. And I would now like to turn back over to the President and CEO of USIP, Lee's Grant. Ambassador Carson, thank you very much. I would like to, just as you've done, to echo the exceptional contributions that have been made today by our panelists. I'd like to start first by expressing our gratitude to Ambassador Coleman, the Deputy Administrator for USAID for this partnership, to very particularly highlight the very interesting, quite remarkable ways that the conversation has been shaped by Dr. Hussein from the World Food Program by Hanin, by Abdi. We all know that there's a major crisis. We all know that the impact of this crisis is cataclysmic. What we've done today is to look at the factors that are driving it and by looking at those factors to get a sense of where our collective action is needed to try and mitigate those, address them, and even better, stop them. A very particular thank you to Ambassador Carson Johnny for moderating this important conversation. And finally, if we could just take a moment to pay tribute to all of the people like Areef and Hanin and Abdi, everyone who works for USAID and for countless organizations around the world who are trying to address this crisis, bravo to you. And we pay tribute to your efforts. Thank you all for joining us at USIP.