 Hello everyone welcome to options with Doug streaming live daily on bookmap discord and the bookmap YouTube channel at 1 30 p.m. Eastern time before I get started I need to go through the disclosures general disclosure all book map the minute materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations risk disclosure trading futures equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results here's my contact information the best way to get in touch with me is through discord my name on discord is Doug P also in bookmap discord there's an options dash Doug chat channel that's a great place to post questions comments and content related to the topics of my presentation and the the topics of the channel that I'll go through in just a moment I'm also on x formerly known as Twitter my name there is at Doug plus also just a note bookmap score discord is free and available to everyone whether you subscribe to bookmap or not a lot of great content there right the focus of my presentation today and the focus of the options dash Doug chat channel is options order flow the impact of options markets on stocks and futures and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias and the second step in my process is execution I look at real-time order flow and bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow and spot gamma hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits and when I talk about setups today I will be talking about an underlying asset and setups can be taken any number of ways for example in the SB 500 setups can be taken with the ES futures excuse me ES futures spy shares spy options SPX options or even ES options questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the options dash Doug chat channel and discord as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments please feel free to post and I'll do my best to answer your question and hello Floyd's garage welcome glad you're here all right here's my agenda for today Wednesday November 29th first of all I want to go over news items economic data and events for today as well as the rest of the week then I'll go through my positional analysis then I'll review some setups for earlier today and then I'll take a look at the live market and when I get to the live market if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at please let me know and I'll be glad to do that all right let's start with news items for today GDP the GDP report this is a second estimate for GDP came out this morning at 8 30 a.m. Eastern time that number was 5.2% that was greater than expected and greater than the previous number and then for the rest of the week tomorrow PCE data is out at 8 8 30 a.m. Eastern time that could be a market mover and then on Friday PMI data as out at 10 a.m. and then Jerome Powell will be speaking at 11 a.m. and there have been a number of our variety of Fed speakers yesterday and throughout the rest of the week all right so that is the economic data and events all right let's get to positional analysis now I'm going to start with the SB 500 this is the SB 500 futures and book map ES futures and before I take a closer look at this chart I want to take a look at a larger time frame I'm gonna go to the SPX this is a 30-day one-hour chart first of all I want to point out the key turning points on this chart this is the when the rally began Monday October 30th the Friday before traders loaded up on puts concerned about weekend risk and then as the weekend passed implied volatility started to drop those puts lost value market makers could buy back their short hedges and this led to a huge IV collapse put VAT a rally the next turning point for lack of a better term this is the November 10th magnificent 7 rally followed up by the CPR report that came in less than expected on Tuesday 11 14 and then price has been slowly grinding up in a positive gamma environment note at this first turning point market makers position on the gamma curve was quite negative and it has shifted gradually toward positive right now gamma notional for SPX remains positive and slightly negative for spy we'll take a look at that in a minute so note as prices increased again gamma notional has been become more positive and the the rally has slowed down leading to more consolidation as the market maker gamma notional has shifted from very negative to positive all right let me point out the levels on this chart first the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move that's based on the options market that changes once a week I update that on the weekend the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move again based on the options market that changes once a day and SPX is trading within both of those ranges right next I want to point out the spot gamma levels on this chart these are proprietary spot gamma levels available to spot gamma subscribers for a variety of platforms this is thinkorswim I'm going to point out the key daily levels first of all here's the put wall at 4400 that's a strike with large net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support the next level up is the 4500 level that's the absolute gamma strike that's a strike with the largest absolute negative and positive gamma so that's where most of the gamma-weighted open interest is concentrated the next level up is the volatility trigger at 4545 that a spot gammas proprietary volatility flip level below that level market makers position on the gamma curve is negative and a negative gamma environment market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to enhance or increase volatility on the other hand above that level like SPX trading right now market makers position on the gamma curve is positive in a positive gamma environment market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to subdue or decrease volatility and then finally the call wall is at 4600 that's a strike with the largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as resistance so the range the potential floor for price at 4400 potential ceiling at 4600 and the level of highest gamma-weighted open interest at 4500 so that is the potential range for SPX note the levels did not change from yesterday so there are no changes in the key daily levels for SPX alright let's take a look at excuse me let's take a look at a one-day chart just to get a closer look at the SPX levels that are in play for today he's on this a bit so this is SPX a one-day chart note this level the 43 73 level acting as resistance that was noted as resistance in the spot gamma am founders note and it did its job and just above that is the upper daily expected move there was a big gap up this morning and then price reversed and we'll take a look at the bookmap chart and see exactly where it did reverse and also note that SPX did trade above its upper daily expected move earlier today and maybe trying to make its way back up there alright let's take a look at book map now and book map I have my own cloud notes so I can show so I can show the SPX levels there's that 45 73 level that acted as resistance did its job here's the 45 87 level that was not shown on the one-day chart that we just looked at but that was noted as resistance in the spot gamma am founders note and acted as resistance almost to the tick I also have spy levels on my chart here's the spy 455 absolute gamma strike acting as support today so if you have any questions about why I show these levels on my chart there's your answer these levels were in the chart when I put these levels on my chart when I was doing my preparation before the before the open this morning right now there is a difference in price between ES and SPX and right now it's just under nine under nine points so I'm using nine today so ES minus SPX is nine right so this 45 73 level should be add nine points to that to get 45 82 so ES 45 82 equals SPX 45 73 and I do post the index relationships that I use ES to spy in Q to QQ Q and ES minus SPX and then Q minus NDX I post those in discord every morning usually around 10 a.m. it takes a takes a few minutes for those levels to settle out for the day all right so I talked about shifts in levels for the SPX there were no shifts in levels for spy there were several shifts in levels so first of all the volatility trigger shifted higher to 454 the pot wall dropped pretty dramatically yesterday and shifted back up to 452 and then finally the absolute gamma strike for spy shifted lower to that 455 level that I showed as support today all right so that's the SMB 500 levels in play for today no ES also traded above its upper daily expected move that's shown by the dash blue line just above the spy 457 level all right let's take a look at NASDAQ now these this is the NQ futures in book ma'am and first I want to isolate and just take a look at the QQQ levels that are in play for today then we'll come back to this chart this is a one-day chart for QQQ again round numbers in play 394 acting as resistance then 392 around that level acting as resistance and then the 390 level acting as support 390 is the absolute gamma strike so just like the spy absolute gamma strike acting as support the QQQ absolute gamma strike at 390 also acted as support and note there was only one shift in levels for the for QQQ the poop wall shifted up to 360 so not in play but the poop wall did shift up all right let's take a look at NDX and just a bit so this 16,000 level for NDX continues to be in play and that is very close to the QQQ 390 level so kind of a cluster of levels there the QQQ 390 and the NDX 16,000 large gamma one level acting as support and just like the S&P 500 ES futures I have my own cloud notes for the NQ futures I'm showing NDX levels and QQQ levels as well as the big round numbers for NQ shown with the red lines the 50s and the zeros so there's this cluster of levels that I was talking about the NDX 16,000 and the QQQ 390 absolute gamma strike acting as support and then the 394 acting as resistance all right again there was only one shift in level levels for the QQQ poop wall shifted higher and for NDX there were no shifts in levels all right so those levels in play for today we'll talk about setups in a few minutes before that I want to take a look at gamma notional see how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day I'm going to look at this these numbers right here this is gamma notional or market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day for the S&P 500 NASDAQ and also 2000 for the S&P 500 S&P X gamma notional is still positive actually increased from yesterday and then for spy gamma notional shifted to negative so it was pretty low yesterday just over just at 52 so shifted to negative today and then for the NASDAQ NDX and QQQ gamma notional remain positive and actually shifted higher from yesterday and gamma notional for rut and IWM remain positive but shifted lower all right let's take a look at the Vana model now we can get a graphical representation of what this means and just to point out in a positive gamma environment for an index spot gamma assumes that traders are short calls market makers are long calls and they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposures price increases and they can buy back their futures as price decreases so on a positive gamma environment they are trading against price and that tends to subdue or decrease volatility alright so let's get a graphical reference to representation of that I want to look at the Vana model what this chart is showing this is for SPX market makers delta notional on the vertical axis and price spot price on the horizontal axis there are two curves on this chart the first light gray curve excuse me the light gray curve shows how market makers delta notional may change with changes in price only the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation that shows how market makers delta notional may change with changes in price and applied volatility and that change in delta with a change in implied volatility is the van effect van is a second order Greek and the purple line is the one that we want to take a look at so let's check a price now for SPX trading right right around 45 66 right here at the bottom of the curve so they're really if in a narrow price range there's really not much of a Vana headwind or tailwind if price starts to move up market makers delta notional will increase and they will have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure remember they always want to remain delta neutral and then on the other hand if price starts to drop market makers delta notional will increase and they will have to sell future to hedge their delta exposure and this portion this left portion of the curve is typical of a positive gamma negative gamma environment where market makers are trading with price price dropping implied volatility increasing and they will have to sell futures all right so that is SPX let's check spy and note this V shape curve is very typical of a positive gamma environment check spy so more skew to the left remember spy gamma notional is slightly negative this higher skew to the left is typical of a more negative gamma environment spy right now is trading right around 456 also near the bottom of the curve indicating there's not much fan effect with small movements up or down and finally let's check qqq 391 just above the absolute gamma strike also at the bottom of the curve so in this case with small movements in qqq not much of a fan effect but pretty similar to SPX if price continues to move up market makers will need to sell futures that tends to subdue or decrease volatility and on the other hand if price starts to move lower market makers will need to sell futures and that will tend to enhance that move lower all right let's take a look at some setups now and first I'm going to take a look at spot gamma hero to see what options traders have been doing today I'm going to start with the SP 500 what this chart is showing is price for SPX and the hero signal hedging impact real-time options everything that we've looked at so far other than book map has been static data based on open interest that's updated once a daily once daily sometime during the night spot gamma pride provides their applies their own algorithms to this data to come up with all the levels and information that we were just looking at and that is all static it's updated once a day this is real time so this is showing options trades market maker hedging activity for a combined signal for SPX by XSP and ES futures now spot gamma does provide individual signals for each of these instruments I like to look at the total this is what the total is what really has an influence on price action for the SME 500 futures ES futures so when traders buy and sell options market makers hedge those trades with ES futures all right let's take a look let's zoom in here and take a look at a setup from this morning no this is the cash open right here at 9 30 a.m. Eastern time and initially the hero flow options trades market maker hedging activity was positive traders were taking positive delta positions and that quickly changed right around 10 a.m. price move lower we can take a closer look and see at puts and calls to get more clarity about what was happening so what this is showing the the orange line rising orange line shows that traders are buying calls they took their foot off the gas right around 955 sorry about that spot game is working on this rising orange line traders buying calls right around 955 10 a.m. they took the foot off the gas stop buying calls started selling calls also they were buying puts that show them by the following blue line and then activity shifted lower so starting around 955 10 a.m. both the blue line and the orange line we're moving the same direction that is a very powerful directional signal and price move lower all right let's go take a look at book map go back to ES zoom in all right so we know 955 10 a.m. traders started selling calls and buying puts market makers have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure now let's take a look at the clues in in book map here so first of all this was a level again noted as resistance in the spot gamma I am found as though so when traders start taking negative delta positions I am anticipating a reversal lower so I see that potential resistance level I'm also watching the volume dots here green volume dots are showing the volume dots are showing market buy minus sell green dots indicate more buyers than sellers and right at that 4587 level the volume dots shift from green showing more buyers to magenta showing more sellers retest of that level aggressive sellers start to come in and price moves lower first target all this liquidity shown by the heat map and book map those are rested resting limit buy orders acting as a magnet for price and initially they do repel price price reverses lower at the next resistance level down also VWAP that shown by the light blue line and price moves down to the spy 455 absolute gamma strike no during this time kill it to volume delta trending down and also sell stop orders were fueling the move lower that shown by the falling yellow line also the on-chart indicator showing sell stop orders these small red dots that's pretty typical once price starts moving in a direction stop orders will help to feel the move all right so very nice short set up in the SME 500 today confirmed with both options trades market maker hedging activity as well as order flow here in book map all right let's go back to hero now and you can see right around 1115 traders start buying calls again they also stop buying puts a few minutes later and start selling puts again the blue line orange line moving in the same direction and price moves higher and this is pretty typical behavior in a positive game environment more mean reverting price action traders buying dips and selling reps or let's take a look at NASDAQ now and just like the SB 500 this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ zoom in just a bit separate outputs and calls so what this is showing as from the open as price was rising traders were buying puts not doing much with calls that line was pretty flat then starting just after 10 a.m. they started selling calls resume buying puts orange line blue line moving in the same direction and price moves lower let's go take a look at book map zoom in on this note the consolidation up around the NQ 200 level as well as QQQ 394 whoops wrong tool aggressive buyers on the way up from the cash open looked like it was going to be a trend continuation from the pre-market traders had something else in mind so consolidation really almost for a half an hour around that level and buyers are exhausted green dots change to magenta dots so this final test right around 10 a.m. aggressive sellers really come in and move price lower and unlike the SB 500 as price was moving up large traders was selling with iceberg orders that's shown by the falling light blue line large traders use iceberg orders to hide their size so it took some patience here but finally price reverse lower as traders started selling calls and buying puts and just like SB 500 confirmed by the falling cumulative volume Delta that's the dark blue line and then sell stop orders fueling the move lower shown by the falling yellow line more consolidation right around let's say between 391 392 and then finally the final test and reverse lower down to QQQ 390 just after 11 right I'm looking for point of control it looks like point of control is it's hard to see this line just below 392 but there's a lot of volume concentrated so it's about 1130 closer to 391 between 390 391 alright let's go back check hero again alright there's another signal that provides a lot of valuable information that is another combined signal that is this magnificent 7 mag 7 this is a combined signal showing options trades market maker hedging activity for a again a combined signal for the stocks known as the magnificent 7 Apple Amazon Google Meta Microsoft Nvidia and Tesla and we'll take a look at those some of those stocks individually let's zoom in on this and this is a great signal these seven stocks make up a very large component of the Nasdaq 100 as well as the S&P 500 and this this is fairly new very very valuable information here let's zoom in on this so traders options traders really weren't buying in on this pre-market rally negative Delta and really got going they really started taking negative Delta positions right around 10 a.m. let's see what they were doing so they were buying puts from the open shown by the falling blue line call line up and down and then let's say around 1005 they really started aggressively selling calls and price started moving lower then and that continues up through now traders continue to buy puts and sell calls in the magnificent 7 potentially taking profits in these stocks I know I got out of long-term positions one in Tesla today and met a couple days ago so that doesn't mean all stocks are going lower just the magnificent seven there several enterprise stocks and and cybersecurity stocks moving higher today workday Palo Alto networks crowd strike but traders definitely look like they're either exiting or taking negative Delta positions anyway in the magnificent seven and again we'll take a look at some of those individual stocks in just a moment all right so that is the NASDAQ additional clarity for both the SP 500 and NASDAQ provided by this magnificent seven signal all right let's take a look at some stocks now I'm going to start with Microsoft so what I did today once this move lower got going I sorted my hero signal so this is my watch list down below the hero chart and I can sort by name or price or in this case by hero signal what this is in what this indicator is showing is the strength of the hero signal compared to the last 30 days and the last three days let me show Tesla for example the entire length of the slider indicates the it's comparing the strength today with the last 30 days so the hero signal for Tesla is showing that the hero signal is the weakest that it has been in the last 30 days it's near the left end of the slider then the colored portion is showing the last five days so for Tesla the hero signal for today is the weakest that it has been in the last 30 days and the last five days all right so let's we'll take a quick look at Apple it last time I looked it was not moving much that may be worth a look again all right for Apple note the gamma levels here 190 key gamma strike good target for a move lower let's go take a look at book map go to Apple and a quick move up at the open I'm just going to show data from 4 a.m. this is as soon as DX feed provides data turned up sharp move higher at the open and reversal at 192 you can see all the aggressive sellers coming in with a magenta volume dots pullback entries at 191 and initial target at the 190 key gamma strike price continues to move lower so a good way to find these is is sorting either your watch list or in the entire list of stocks that support hero with the with this hero signal you can look sorted by weakest the strongest or strongest the weakest all right that is Apple the next let's go back to the list next Microsoft actually let's go back to Apple note that signal really didn't get get moving lower until about 10 a.m. when everything really started to reverse lower traders mainly buying puts they're also selling calls but put buyers driving price lower when traders buy puts market makers sell the puts and they have to sell stock to hedge their delta exposure let's go to Microsoft note for Microsoft 385 call wall price was opened lower than that right around 384 here's the 380 key gamma strike and then down below that the 377 50 put wall traders buying puts and selling calls let's go take a look at book map go to Microsoft there's the 385 call wall up above looks like price did not quite make it to that 377 50 level but did move lower than 380 let's go back and check those spot gamma levels 377 put wall 380 key gamma strike 380 key gamma strike 377 put wall not shown I'm just showing the round numbers they'll so the put wall looks like we just see so that looks like that was just right above the 377 put wall that acted as support note now some aggressive buyers coming in shown by the green volume dots let's go back to hero so after this sharp move lower looks like several block trades there large institutional traders then the hero signal levels off and price consolidates all right the next I want to take a look at is Tesla let's actually let's go back to list Tesla next on the list look pretty bullish right first in the morning let's zoom in on this 250 call wall key gamma strike and Tesla has been pretty bullish recently gapped up moved up above those levels then started moving lower so initially there was a call wall breach and it took several tests pretty choppy action but Tesla moved lower as traders were taking negative delta positions mainly selling calls today that's shown by the falling orange line also the negative notional value net for the day they have been buying puts that's also shown by the negative notional value there let's go to book map to look at Tesla remember 250 is the call wall a lot of choppy action but price did trade above the call wall in the morning then right around 10 oops wrong tool Tesla started making a series of lower highs and moved down below the call wall and nice trend lower giving a couple of opportunities for shorts all right let's go back and take a look at hero all right so for the day traders continue to take negative delta positions and Tesla or let's go back to the list right not a lot to see here AMD 125 is the call wall and it looks like price has been trading up and down around that level and if anybody has any stocks they want me to take a look at please let me know and I'll be glad to do that and not a lot of Lee not a lot of movement and in Amazon today let's take a look at Nvidia and initially Nvidia traded higher and then just right around 10 a.m. like everything else options traders shifted from positive delta to negative delta and Nvidia move lower so today traders are buying puts and selling calls and Nvidia let's go take a look at book map sharp move up in the morning resistance right around 487 still a lot of aggressive buyers a lot of green volume dots reverses lower at 485 let's go back to so the only gamma level in the range of this chart is the 477 50 hedgewall quick look at Netflix looks like Netflix now trading up to around its key gamma strike look at meta traders continue to take positive delta positions in meta right now looks like it may be finding support at the 332 50 put wall let's go take a look at book map there's the put wall looks like prices chopping up and down around that level right Joel wants to look at GLD and USO let's do that and Joel just like yesterday I don't have either of these ETFs in book map but we can take a look in hero we'll start with GLD so gold moving up up toward the 190 call wall key delta strike and key gamma strike and that for the day traders are taking negative delta positions although the gamma notional is is very low or the notional value there I'm sorry so net for the day traders are buying puts and selling calls all right let's take a look at USO very small low notional value notional value only 3.12 million and 70 hedgewall key gamma strike put wall below all right Floyd's garage ask about DBA don't know if that's available no it looks like Joe Floyd's garage I'm sorry DBA is not available does not support hero all right when we're I've talked about Tesla we can take a quick look again so hero typically supports stocks and ETFs that have a larger more active options market it's not available for all stocks so DBA I doubt has much of an active options market right so ohmere there you go Tesla traders taking negative delta positions as we as I showed before they were traders are selling calls and buying puts and Tesla and Tesla reverse below the 250 call wall key gamma strike all right let's do a check on the indices now go back to the SB 500 SB 500 still consolidating right around 456 point of control just above that let's see what options traders are doing back to the SB 500 so somewhat of a departure in options trades and price action let's just take a look at a shorter look back period to see if we can get more clarity so looking at just the last 30 minutes of data the hero signal has been up and down and price action pretty pretty flat one of the thing that we can take a look at is next expiry so for the SB 500 that would show options trades for options that expire today the zero DTE so it looks like there's a very excuse me a very strong correspondence between the green line which is showing zero DTE options options that expire today as well as all expiration shown by the purple line it looks like the green line is making up maybe a little bit over 60% of the total notional value for options traded today let's check NASDAQ so NASDAQ the hero signal is starting to move lower again check magnificent seven also moving lower traders continue to take negative delta positions and the magnificent seven stocks and I did post a screenshot of these little thumbnails of my watch list and discord them this morning they were all red except for the signal for the SB 500 futures ES futures so traders taking this opportunity today to take negative delta positions and sell the magnificent seven let's go to book map check on NASDAQ so NASDAQ also consolidating in this case right around 391 and the point of control is just below that level order flow as well as hedging flow looks bearish all lines in the sub chart icebergs CVD and stop orders all trending lower CVD still positive for the day but not by a lot let me do a quick check for questions all right oh mirror you're welcome all right everyone my time is up I want to thank everyone for watching thank you for your questions and comments and I will see you tomorrow remember tomorrow PCE data out at 8 30 a.m. Eastern time could be a market mover and we'll talk about it tomorrow afternoon thanks again bye