 Welcome traders. So this week's live market analysis session with me, Patrick, I'm just going to do a quick. Just want to do a quick audio test if you can hear me and you can see the tick mill welcome screen type of why in the chat box. That would be really helpful. Testing audio testing audio 123. Good stuff. Okay, let's get going here then for we do obviously jump into today's content we as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. It's really important that the views expressed by me here today are solely mine and they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe limited. Just pull the file here one second guys where with me. It's going to be one second here or I get a problem connecting that with me. Sorry about this guys technical glitch there. Yes, so the views expressed by me are solely mine they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe limited. I'm going to run through a bunch of charts in a few minutes. If you have any questions. I'm going to wait till the end of the presentation make a note of any questions you've got. And then I will be more than happy to open up for a Q&A. If there's a chart you want me to take a look at that I don't cover in my deck. I can do that then as well. And so before we jump into the charts, brief introduction to myself for those that hit the first time. My name is Patrick Manly after I graduated from university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit of consulting startup that was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. I say to go to front row seat the dot com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, oftentimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading S&P 500, or probably more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case my beginners luck run out and as the market phase changed. I essentially averaged down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit. To say that was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences none of the statements. I really had to stand back and figure out who was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. I wanted to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for 18 months to two years was a period during which I up to not just my technical game, a research developed since we back and forward tested strategies that crucially suits my personality, all of which was underpinned by rigorous risk management strategy. During the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game, and probably most importantly I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Sometimes in the face of negative feedback from markets in the form of losing trades, but once you become process oriented and have a professional trading mindset. And you understand true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades, or even a string of trades my focus on the next 100 trades, because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. The multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental market to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I've engaged in some other market activities and projects really. I'm resident market experts exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill, providing an in depth daily market outlook breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for two or three markets that I'm actively tracking. I also run tick mills rapidly growing evenly strategy group where I provide a daily specific trade plan with intraday trade projects. Since its inception in April I've delivered over 850 points of alpha or upside. My other passion project is leading trader education for a premier trading education brand called fxcareerswap.com offering development and funding to retail trading talent. At fxcareerswap we don't just develop retail traders market trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. And if you want to get into a number, you can find out more about what it is we offer at fxcareerswap and you can also email the guys on the trade desk in London and they'll come back to you in a timely fashion with with details. I'm involved in developing the trader blueprint strategy group which is a professional trading community where traders of all experience levels can access daily institutional insights from tier one investment bank trading desks and their market strategy teams. We have regular market bulletins with in-depth positioning and sentiment analysis, actionable real-time chart analysis with daily setups and trading updates from a team of expert traders. With live trader education sessions helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a pro. For both of those strategy groups, the futures options group, we are offering a two week free trial period, I will put the link into the chat here so you can request access to the Facebook group. Similarly, we're doing the same thing with the trader blueprint, you can get a two week free trial link is now going into the chat there. I strongly suggest you take advantage of those and see what it is we're doing. So without further ado, let's jump into the charts and we are going to start with the S&P 500. I've got an earlier wave overlay here for the S&P and we're reaching some pretty pivotal areas obviously summer trading at the moment but my sense is we're going to emerge from this summer trading into some decent two way volatility and the first for me, you can see a little bit clearer here on the four hour chart. This is the summer trading range at the moment and what I'm looking for is going to be a break of the resistance here through 44.35, which should see prices extend up into this ascending trend line resistance in what is ultimately a megaphone or broadening top pattern. So I'm looking for price to extend up, maybe we'll get a little retest there but ultimately get into this trend line resistance so somewhere around 44.88, we've got 44.90, 161 extension of this potential wave four corrected pattern. So what I'm looking for is an extension up into this zone, not going long looking for that trade, and then ultimately looking to reverse the long positions based on various reversal patterns from this target zone, and then from there, if we jump back out to the daily chart, what I'm then be looking for is a pullback to the wave four low, which would have us back into this prior resistance as active support once we likely get a second test here. So back down then into 42.44 will be the target zone before we extend into the wave five of five, this being if we look at the subdivision here, this is off the pandemic lows so we have a nice one, two, three, four, five, then an ABC correction setting up wave one, two, the internal three, four, five, which then completed, this completed the major wave one and two, and we've been in a couple of interim, intermediate cycles, sorry, but ultimately now I'm looking for the major wave five high to be put in, and that should, depending upon how this wave four structure plays out, should be put into the 4600, maybe a little bit higher, but from there then we'll be looking for the major correction of this, of this wave five peak, and certainly we can be thinking about the move back down into the 200 area with a reasonable expectation, but the immediate focus for me is looking, is it watching for entries on the long side to target this 4480 to 4490 area, and then watching super get that confirmation to set short positions. The focus, like I've mentioned before, some are, some are lull, less part of participation, you can see some quite erratic moves, but what we're anticipating is that we do get this break to the top side, and then we get the opportunity to see if, if the bears can get a bit of a pullback here. Similarly, to the downside, if we break the support zone here coming at 4370 that that would suggest we have a consolidation top in place, and we can start to think about a correction down to that 4237 initial target zone. That would be the alternative scenario but the primary set of, I see at the moment is that we take out the stops above this range, if we do break down, we'd be looking for a set up probably something like this, and then get that move into the support zone there. But like I say, primary set up this juncture, given the structure that we've got looks like we take out the stops at the top side and get that pivotal 4480, 4490 test before that. So similar scenario in terms of the DAX, let's take this out to the daily time frame. So I'm sorry, the NASDAQ looking for another high here in the NASDAQ up into this projected ascending trend line resistance. So we look for a break higher here to get up into this zone, which is the, it's now moved up into the 420 area. And that's where we watch for those various reversal patterns to set short positions. And certainly I think we can think about a retest of this prior resistance then to act to support the 14,000 and then potentially the trend line support below so we look for a break here to the other side. DAO, there we go. So similar story in the DAO we're looking for a test retest. The DAO actually took out its ascending trend line support first, and we're now grinding up against it so any move up here into this 35,600 area. So that's where we watch for short, sorry for various reversal patterns to set short positions. I think we definitely think about a move back down into 32,600 before we extend into that major fifth wave targets to the upside. And ideally, we get that we get that run up coming into October, which seasonally is one of the weakest periods for the correction before we potentially set up for a run into the year into the upside. So we've got the DAX here. DAX, I'm looking for one more high in the DAX. So ideally we're going to see something like this develop. And then we're into the top side of the major ascending wedge and then we can think about a decent correction developing the DAX. So the key levels to watch and see that we've got this wedge from the pandemic lows its respect to the trend line. It's time to get down to test it will be taking it out. And so watching any move up into 16,600 should give a decent shorting opportunity but some nice momentum divergence in play. So keeping an eye on the DAX. Nikkei remains the weakest of all these equity indexes and I'm still, I still believe that we have we're going to test lower so any move up into this trend line resistance at the 28,200 zone. Watch bearish reversal patterns there and I'd be talking an equality objective down to 25,900 for the Nikkei. I think that's going to be one of the most interesting plays I'm keeping an eye on this looking for to see if we get a set up as we trade into this area, equally with the Nikkei. The other way to play this is you can play a break of this internal trend line there. So any move now down through 27,300 should also give the same play heading down into the, sorry, not 20,000. The 27,300 sets up that move down to 25,900 on the breakdown there. VIX. Obviously, if we if we if we're looking if we're thinking about new equity highs we shouldn't see the VIX trading back down into the into the channel here at 40 below the 15 level. We've done quite nicely this overlay versus this price action here before we extended so we continue to chop here then and certainly what I would be what I'll be doing is as we if we don't get a lower VIX and we get new equity highs that will suggest that we are we that people are requiring risk protection and then we can see a real pop in terms of the VIX on any pullback so VIX to be bought above 2050 and below 15 is the is the way I'm going to be playing the VIX as we as we head into the back in the summer here. The trend line index holds healthy the trend along the projected trend line support if now we need to get through the monthly pivot here at 9,235 to set up that extension into the target zone. If we if we lose this trend line support here, then we look for a test back down into the 91 handle that's going to be pivotal, because if we take out the 91, then we can, it will suggest or give a strong indication that we're resuming the downtrend. It's somewhat prematurely I personally from a structural perspective prefer to see this zone tested and then see if the seller are back in play there and then we can once the pattern has has completed the technical patterns completed then that will allow for the final leg to the downside for this cycle but holding pretty well here this this internal trend line versus the pitchfork overlay. Ten year yields obviously big story big market driver at the moment the the yield narrative with bonds being bought the yields on the defensive here but we're still holding this trend line as we do. I still think there's a chance of a pop and one more low into the major ascending trend line support before we get the next leg to the upside in terms of yields. You can see so obviously this is this is the German 10 year bund and so you can see money flying into this now, we can start to track here I think we know we haven't got any divergence yet. Once we get some divergence I'll update this chart I'll probably do it as a. chart it, but once we get some divergence I'll show you here how you can construct or identify. What's where we can play a potential wave for low for a fifth wave extension just move this here. So what we'll be looking for ideally will be this type of move. And then we get the way five cause objective versus the way one high. So what you do are a nice way of tracking this we probably looked, I think we could probably get into this resistance zone up here around 17748. And then what we do is we bring in our overlay versus the last corrected phase. And so let's say you get up in here, or we store out the into range resistance. So then what we can think about is this being a potential way for low. And then we get our fifth wave target, once, once we have our fourth wave on place, that gives us an objective to the upside there 178 58 so I'll track this one again what I what we want to think about is in terms of. What we don't have any divergence that would suggest that is simply a wave three high. And so there's still that way for a high, so there's still that way five objective to play for versus once we can identify potential way for low in place. And so, so this, this is, this is a useful tool when you're thinking about where we are in terms of the wave cycle using divergence so whilst we don't have any divergence. The higher probability scenarios we simply have a wave three high in place, and then we can look for a way for loads play for the wave five, and it's the way five then that should give us the right virgins on the momentum indicator to play them for a deeper correction but certainly this looks very impulsive at the moment. And we know from a broader perspective that that money is flying into the bond market bonds globally are being are being put at the moment on risk sentiment. So that's just a little tip there in terms of how you can structure and identify we where these wave cycles are likely to play out into gold. Looking for gold now to pull back into the target zone here of this trend line support. You can overlay and equal legs here so we so we've got nice 1787 is the target so now. And this we've got this ascending trend line support so any move into here, I've been looking for bullish reversal patterns that long positions and targeting and move up into the quality objective that 1866 and that major ascending trend line resistance coming in there as well so we've got a really nice target from an entry into this one 1780 area. Silver weaker than gold at the moment I'm looking to get short here on a break of 2520, and I'm targeting your quality objective down to 2330. And the yearly pivot there as well. 2265 so nice risk reward using stop just above the high of that reversal candle there from the underside of the previous trend line support. I like that trade at the moment. And I'm looking for a test here of this major ascending trend line support of the lows there pandemic lows with the third test these generally give a nice entry to join the trend so any move into this $66 area is is one I'm going to be watching closely to set long positions. Okay, we can think then about a target of the ascending trend line resistance which comes in at $85. So that's one that's very much on the radar at the moment, copper, similar type of story looking for a test this major ascending trend line support in this big broadening top pattern is a potential way for low in place, and we should be playing for a fifth wave extension up into into the high ascending trend line resistance 553 89 on the upside will be the objective so keep close on that one that is reversal from that trend line support Bitcoin. We had, we have the long signal through the descending trend line resistance training right into the range resistance and we found a bit of supply here now. Now we'll see what, what sort of, what sort of move we're actually going to get do we trade back down into range support or do we hold these higher highs here, previous range resistance 36,000 if we do, then that could set up an extension of into the 50,000 area. Similar story with either even not quite as strong as, as Bitcoin, we have fallen shy of the range resistance so we're looking for a test of 2914, maybe get a bit of consolidation here but that's the target and then we'll see it's going to be the seller step in. Dolly one, looking for a potential inverse head and shoulder scenario here to set up let's draw that in for you. We've got our head here, and now we are trying to potentially carve out the right shoulder, which should then give us the fuel for another run to the outside in terms of the dolly one. Dolly yen, looking for certainly while we hold, let's just draw this in using this tool. To hold this trend line resistance we look for 108 58, and that then should set up the reverse of a decent opportunity on the long side. So we can think about a move back into retest the 111 handle, but just watching for that 108 58 weekly range support 108 40 so watching for bullish reversal patterns there to then play to the top side of the current range. So we talked about this last week about this market mirroring type effect. I think we're in for, I think we're just grinding out here in terms of swiss you know immediate opportunity to highlight there. So we've done a CAD here on the test of this trend line support potential again inverse head and shoulder scenario. Let's move down to this 124 10124 20 area, what's the bullish reversal patterns there, and we could see, we could see a decent clip to the upside. So if we take out this trend line support, then that would suggest we're actually starting potential next leg to the downside for the looting because critically what's important here is we held an equality objective at 127 38 so technically that's that's an ABC pattern to complete it, and certainly if we take out the confirmation really for me will be through 122 50 there the B wave low would suggest we're going to take out the loads and move down for for a new load of the dollar CAD, but first and foremost let's see if we get some some bullish reversal patterns from this area to set up another leg to the upside and what could be then a more complex correction for for the movie. Sing dollar, looking for a another leg, another corrective way to develop here before this could see some potential in the single if we get down into the lower parallel there of the pitchfork which it's tracking again it's pretty nice at the moment so if we get another leg to the downside I'd be very interested to see how we trade at 133 70s for the sing dollar. Euro, trying to hold on here hold on to the pivot cluster as we do then I still see the potential for another leg to the ox, but again, I would anticipate that we find sellers into that 120 because we have that open quality objective similar with obviously with the dollar index with its quality objective and really like to see those get tested to complete the technical structure at this point. Euro Swiss is one that I'm watching closely here, I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns in this 107 area to set long positions. With this with these when you're playing these corrections one tip to bear in mind is if you get a signal where you're playing these ABCs, you want your trade to be risk free by the time you trade halfway back into the C wave. Retracement, because that's that's the area if we are going to do another leg to the downside in terms of double correction, that's the area the technical area where sellers are likely to start to set back in so we want to be risk free if we're going to play these objective moves by the time we test the 50% retracement of our C wave just middle points bear in mind. Euro Sterling sitting right on the edge here. I think we would like to see is another leg down here to complete this five wave sequence of these of these highs here, then I think we can start to think. We have one, two, three, four, and a protracted fifth wave down into the 84 handle monthly range support 127 extension of our way for consolidation. I think that's where we could see buyers come into defend Euro Sterling, but for now we wait for the break to the downside. The last one I'm just running out of time here Sterling Kiwi is one that I'm paying attention to I think this one is offering potentially fantastic risk reward for a decent position trade so I'm looking for a test here of the 195 80. This trend line support watch for bullish reversal patterns there, because we have a big topside objective to play for in terms of this structure here. This is a target of 20452 from from an entry down here at 196 so I'll leave you with that one for this week that's one that I'm going to be paying close attention to obviously a bunch of others, but I highlighted paying close attention to these equity markets as we look for this potential fifth wave extension before we can we can think about training a decent decent corrective move. So that wraps up most of the charts that I'm looking at there are some others I'll update those in the in the chart it's so with that, are there any questions, you can either type them into the chat box. Kiwi yen is one that I'm actually watching just didn't get time here, so I like the Kiwi yen into this resistance area here 7790 various reversal patterns there, and this Kiwi yen has as a downside has a structure to complete, this is this swing structure here. So I'd like to let the Kiwi yen into 7790 various reversal patterns, short positions targeting 7486 to complete the way for low and then start to think about the upside again. Okay, any other questions equally if you don't have a question as Ben has just done an end in the chat box are you using Fib retracement extension. Yeah, I use Fib retracement extensions I use Fib time extensions. I use a bunch of tools, Ruth. You know, in terms of trading it's a bit like, you know, if you're a plumber for example. And you go to the job, you know you have the core understanding of the rudiments of plumbing but you use different tools, depending upon the job you're doing so I kind of think of trading like that in some sense that I have a broader deep understanding of the few tools and I use them as I see as I see as I see applicable really. Q&A, what indicators, these are the indicators for price or proprietary, I can give you a link where you can access those if you're interested bear with me type answer to James. You can access the indicators set through, through that from there. Okay, any other questions. Okay, take the silence as a no and I'll wrap this one up here. I would just mention to you I'm going to be offline from August 21 through to September 1 so there won't be any sessions during during that period. And I'll be back September 1 raring to go into the business end of the year. Okay, thanks very much everyone hope this helps.