 I've been doing a bit of digging online for the past few months, finding interesting content to create videos on. One channel I came across that struck me in particular was What If Alt Hissed. Watching a few of his videos, I saw that he discussed Turkey a lot, and stated that it had great potential to become a global, or at least great regional, power. Turkey being a great power is one scenario that never really crossed my mind, as after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the Republic of Turkey was in a precarious situation, bringing neither a great power or a colony throughout the first half of the 20th century. It was surrounded by much more powerful countries like Britain, France, and the Soviet Union. Today things are different, none of these states are in the area anymore, the Soviet Union isn't even a country, and most of Turkey's neighbors either failed states, very weak countries, or Iran, which is neither. In this week's video, I will look at why all of the cards are in Turkey's favor to become a regional or global power, and what this will mean for the world. The stage is set for a new Ottoman Empire, at least that's what some are saying about Turkey's current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He is known for being much more conservative than much of the previous liberal leaders of the Republic, Erdogan is significantly more authoritarian than his predecessors, and much more religious. Since 2003, he has expanded the role of Islam in the country, including reforming the church-turned-mosque-turned-museum Ayya Sophia back into a mosque. Also, Turkey under Erdogan's leadership has been expanding its role as a defender and patron of Sunni Islam. In 2015, construction of a brand new mosque capable of holding a four and a half thousand worshipers in ex-communist Albania began. Albania experienced severe religious oppression during the late 20th century as a result of communist leadership, and Turkey is trying to bring Sunni Islam back. This move is just one piece of Turkey's strategy for regional hegemony, but I'll get back to it soon. Let's talk demographics for a sec. Turkey has a population of 84 million, growing at a rate of 1.5% each year. By its own government estimates, Turkey will reach 100 million people by 2040. The country also has an average age of 32 years. This is very good. With a relatively stable growth rate in young population, Turkey will not experience the demographic crises facing much of its neighbors in the Caucasus or Eastern Europe, at least not for a while. These neighbors have rapidly aging populations which are also shrinking due to low birth rates and high emigration. Turkey's geographic position is also very desirable. Istanbul has always been one of the most soft-forced cities in history due to its importance in the Pan-Eurasian trade, but that's just one piece of the puzzle. Sitting on the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey as a whole is at the crossroads of Europe, Western Asia, the Middle East, and to an extent Africa, as it is not far across the Mediterranean. Switching to political geography, Turkey borders Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Greece, and Bulgaria, and to be honest, Turkey is truly surrounded by countries that are not even close to having its military strength. They either have decreasing and or small populations, or are war-torn failed states. Iran is the only neighbor that doesn't fit either of these qualities, and frankly it's the neighbor that Turkey should be most concerned about. The two countries may have conflicting interests in dividing in the Middle East, and I'll get to that later as well. Anyways, it's time to look at what Turkey is already doing to push its foreign agenda. Only behind the United States, Turkey has sent its forces overseas to the second highest number of countries. All the countries on screen have some Turkish military presence, either as part of NATO missions, bilateral agreements, or troops placed there on their own accord. This is one of the staples of Turkish foreign policy, as placing their troops in either allied countries or countries where they are supporting an allied faction is obviously going to increase their influence in those countries. Now since I have established why Turkey can become a regional power, it's time to go into greater detail, on a region by region basis, to see where exactly Turkey will expand its influence. In the western Balkans, Turkey is already making moves to secure its influence in the region, especially within the Islamic parts of Bosnia, Albania, and Kosovo. There is something important to note here, the presence of NATO. I predict that there will be some sort of rift in NATO within the near future, as Turkey will eventually try to pursue its own goals, independent of NATO. Oh wait, that's already happening, in places like Syria and Libya. Anyways, the more westernized countries of the Balkans will probably align with the Euro-American camp within NATO on the sole basis of not wanting to be under Turkish influence. However, it would be much harder for a country like Albania to escape Turkish influence, and it's likely that Turkey will only try harder to pursue its goals in the region. Albania and Turkey have historically been friendly nations, and as a result, Turkey may try to aid Albanian interests in the region so they can keep their foothold there. I see an independent Kosovo probably emerging, because there really is not much Serbia could do against Turkish troops in the region. This would certainly strain relations between Serbia and Turkey, and as a result, Serbia may try to seek better relations with Russia to ensure its independence. Despite its geographical proximity to NATO, Serbia will most likely not look to them to protect them, since they have had a rocky relationship with the alliance. Russia is much closer culturally anyway, and this may be just one theater of a possible Turkish-Russian Cold War resurfacing in the next few decades. Anyways, Turkey may also seek to expand its influence in North Macedonia, due to its large Albanian and Turkish populations, both of which are Muslim. Though most of Turkey's work will probably be in the Albanian populated areas, I see it is likely that they will also try to gain influence in Bosnia-Herzegovina, a NATO candidate whose application is mainly supported by, you guessed it, Turkey. There is also the matter of the EU being in the region. Many of the countries I've mentioned, including Turkey, are applicants to join the union, but it's looking less likely that Turkey will do so. Turkey would actually be better off if it completely abandoned its application and started its own regional union. This would probably include all the countries in the Balkans I have discussed, and more nations that I will cover as I get to different regions. Basically, the Balkans will be divided between European, Turkish, and Russian influence. I don't know what will happen to Montenegro. They recently elected a government that is anti-NATO, so they may return to Serbian-slash-Russian influence, or if Turkey is ambitious enough, it could gain influence in the country to create a contiguous landmass of its allies in the western Balkans. North Macedonia may also face pressure to join the union, or do so on its own accord if EU refuses its entry. And then we have EU member Cyprus. Turkey could easily take over the island, and Europe would do nothing. They may send sanctions to the country, but I don't feel there will be any serious action taken by the European powers to defend it. Cyprus joining the Turkish Commonwealth on its own accord is also very unlikely, considering the strained relations between the two countries. However, an invasion like this may not be the wisest move for Turkey if it wants to have a stable sphere of influence. This move would put Turkey at odds with Europe, and by extension, all of the west, for much longer than it would like. If Turkey cooperated with the west, it would kind of mutually guarantee their maintenance, as they would be allied against common rivals like Russia or China and their satellites. However, if Turkey invades all of Cyprus, this alliance is unlikely. And this is where I'll end today's video, on a cliffhanger, yes. In part 2 of this video, which will come out next Sunday, I will cover the rest of the regions that Turkey is interested in expanding its influence in, and what a Turkish powerhouse would mean for the rest of the world. Thank you all for watching. Be sure to like, subscribe, and share this video with all of your friends. Thank you to everyone who has helped me get to 1,000 subscribers. This is a huge milestone, and I couldn't have done it without all your help. Look out for the Patreon in the coming weeks in a Q&A 1,000 subspecial. I'll see you guys then.