 Hello, welcome to today's CMC markets currency snapshot with myself Jasper Lawlor market analyst today We're going to be focusing on the Australian dollar against the US dollar currency pair Now there's been an interesting collision of two different chart patterns setting up here as well as the recent RBA Reserve Bank of Australia minutes to digest the Aussie dollars had quite a run-up this year started down at 87 Recently hit a high at 94 cents to the US dollar and we've recently dropped down to 92 cents The lightest move down has been as a result of the RBA minutes, which were a bit more dovish than expected I the central bank was leaning a bit more towards a rate cut than a rate hike they they talked specifically about The lower interest rates and the accommodation of central bank They're unsure if that is going to offset troubles in the mining sector in Australia as a result of the slowdown and growth in China and So that that's been weak for the Aussie Now the RBA pretty much in every meeting do tend to jawbone or talk down the Australian dollar They have an ideal rate at about 86 cents to the to the US dollar, which we've not even seen so far this year So their rhetoric is unsurprising What's been driving the Australian dollar higher so far this year has been a combination of? price movements in gold gold's been a bit more uncertain recently we saw a large decline We've seen recently seen it rally right back up to around 1270 as the US dollar has been weakening so Gold is a bit uncertain. What has been a big driving force has been the hunt for yield Now most global interest rates are pretty low these days. Australia's is relatively high. There's still a sort of a good economy AAA rated economy So investors have been buying Australian bonds putting their money into the Australian dollar with the hope of a carry trade to earn interest So the kind of battle going forward is whether that that carry trade overrides the Reserve Bank of Australia and any price movements in gold now looking at the price charts for the AUD looking at a daily chart here The initial pattern that we had at the bottom of this chart is a reverse head and shoulders pattern now using the height of this pattern with the neckline being around 91 and The bottom of the pattern being around 87 we'd put a hundred percent objective from this pattern at about 95 and then we'd see a 161.8 a Fibonacci type objective based on that pattern coming in around 97 both of which these prices tend to match highs which you see in the decline in price in the end or towards the end of 2013 More recently. We're looking at this price range between 92 and 94 Now really whether 92 holds or 94 holds is going to determine whether we're looking at this as a double top pattern Ie two tops formed at 94 and a and a 92 as a base pointing to a break lower or in fact 94 breaking and it looking more like a a ball flag or just a rectangle consolidation, which is breaking higher so The result of this short-term pattern will tell us whether we meet these full objectives from our reverse head and shoulders pattern Thank you for watching today's currency snapshot Remember we're looking at the Australian dollar versus the US dollar So we have to look at relative bond markets to see if that carry trade continues as well as any comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia and what's happening in gold good luck with trading