 And we're live everybody welcome to the DC a show where we try to take what's going on this crazy world of crypto and break it down as best we can and I think what I needed was a little bit of a help because today's getting a little bit crazy And it's been crazy for quite some time. So I've got over here on my left. Well, you're right Maybe my left. This is Ben, you know the cryptoverse. Thanks Ben for stopping by. I appreciate it And then we've also got James from it best answers stop and buy I appreciate it and what we got just as a reminder to Check out these guys and but there's a link in the description And I've got both their channels right there watching James and it best answers and Ben into the cryptoverse and today what we're gonna try to do is just to bring things back because there's been so much talk So we're gonna talk about the craziness that is Putin and Ukraine seem like we can't escape it, but I think it's just a flex also We're gonna talk about this Canadian freeze and get back to reality also. We'll take a look at these different all the different Reserve banks the Central banks that are just seems like they're waging war against everyone and they continue to lose and then lastly we'll take a look at how Biden and regulations coming forth and I think there might be a way that America actually gets it right So first things first a lot of stuff to cover. So this is gonna be a bit So hold your questions till the end if you would please I really appreciate it. Let's get into it. First of all Let's do the first thing We need some TA. This is TA time. So James or Ben I'm gonna have law Ben take it. I'm not gonna kid anybody Ben take this first one. So TA time What's the bottom and does that freak you out and then James after he gets done? I want to ask you the same question because does this freak you out what he's going about to say So Ben if you want to share your screen, you got something. Let me know we can do it or you can just rip it away Yeah, I mean like I don't I don't know what the bottom is This is a question. We've actually talked about what for a number of months now We said like look the problem in a downtrend is if you keep trying to predict the bottom The market can continue to make a fool of you, you know So I don't know where the bottom is but we can talk about worst-case scenarios, right? So like could it be the bottom? I don't know but this is the same thing You know, I talked about back in the summer at 21 is that look Bitcoin does periodically go back down to its 200 Week moving average. Okay. This is not something that has to happen You know, it could have happened back in the summer and it didn't back in the summer The 200 week was at 14k and we ended up going back up now. It's a 20k and you know, this also corresponds to the prior all-time high It also corresponds to our you know, the regression band that we've talked about that it's fit to you to say like the non bubble data as well So to me that would be the worst-case scenario So and when I say worst-case scenario what I mean by that is I try to think about a Stable coin stack, right? So like if I have a stable coin stack, where would I want to put most of those chips in? And for me, I think well, I Have to layer in so I've already been layering and by the way when we talk about bull markets and bear markets I think a lot of people think that oh that means in a bear market. You have to sell everything Typically typically when markets are bearish, I really start to scale back in from from, you know Previous, you know from from previously taking profits during doing a run-up But I think about scaling in as we go down So then if we do go to those levels then I would be, you know, basically fully deployed at that point It doesn't mean we can't go lower doesn't mean we never even it doesn't mean we have to make it there it just means that at that point I would be fully deployed more or less back into the market because I Would I would think that would be an area that we should be able to hold. Yeah, I got you I watch a video about case of the bears and it looked like you were talking about for the 200 week moving average Around 20k and that's and not to say everybody out there listening It's not like it's going to 20k for certain because guess what me Ben and James do not have a crystal ball We have no idea. Well, it also the 200 week moving average is moving up every single week So I mean, you know the longer it takes us to You know, I mean for instance in 2017 when we started down We didn't actually get to the 200 week for a long time later And I think when we started down the 200 week was not even close to 3,100 dollars But by the time we got to it it doubled so for all we know by the time we reached the 200 week It could be a lot higher. So I don't know. I'm also going to put out another video calling a case for the bulls. So I like that just so I'm not not, you know, just so I'm trying to provide an unbiased view Biased. All right, James. What do you got? Yeah, so I just look at the development of the chain the adoption the scarcity on exchanges And the fact that 80% of the game now is institutional So it's not a retail game anymore. It's just the big money is aggregating And when I look back at a post I made earlier this week about the scc third scc 13f filings They have exploded there are three x in this quarter alone Which means institutions asset managers over 100 million bucks Are buying bitcoin or they have an intent they filed an intent to buy or they're buying. So that's where we are This is not a retail game retails hurting retails nervous. It's hard to believe 24th of january. We're 33k now They're freaking out of 40k. I don't know why it is. It's just it's just I always say seat belts, please It's a volatile beast go along volatility for a maximum return But everything active addresses adoption Supply on exchanges Everything on chain points to bullishness now and ask you your question. Where's the floor? I think worst case if all hell broke loose in the world You never know what could happen. It depends on how big the cascading capitulation is And knocking through floors and how much leverage is out there But I'd say worst case would probably be 29k at this stage Which would take us back to where we hit during the summer. I don't see us going to 20k Yeah, that makes sense. I know people that would be selling organs at 20k to buy bitcoin if that was a case And it's always possible though one thing as well. You got to remember I always say have those crazy limit orders in place Like I've got one that's sitting on my account now for Over a month or six weeks, you know down at the 30,000 level in case we get one of those crazy wicks Yeah, that can also happen and just everybody's getting everybody's getting wise to that now Like everybody was calling on the 24th or late january for a 20,000 to 30,000 bitcoin You can see once we hit the 33k all the big money started coming in buying it. These were million dollar plus transactions These weren't retail investors People are accumulating and they're not retail So what I urge anybody and I I'm on the receiving end of it a lot every time is retail I say, oh, I'm gonna sell now. I'm gonna buy back at 30k Don't take that gamble the odds of us going higher are much higher than the odds of us going lower And the delta is also much higher if we go higher. So that's all I have to say I'll got you. So, I mean that leaves me to my next question, which is does it freak you out? And this is for both you guys Because like when I see these see for us, it's not a big deal, right? And we talked about this off camera There's people right now. I think a lot of people watching these shows these days They got it in 2021 and they got in like when it wasn't it was you know going pretty high So this is probably like their first freak out. This is not our first rodeo So it's like when people ask me like why you so come because I already we've already done this like I don't know 20 times before So right now does it does this freak you out for the things that are going on just real quick then? What do you got? No, I mean I I mean it honestly these times are Are easier in the market oftentimes I think it's it's a lot harder when when things are going parabolic because then you have to have the conviction to actually Take profits on on something you believe is the future. So it's hard to sell, you know During these times It's actually relatively easy for for me in the sense that look I have a position in bitcoin And I'm continuing to dca into the market even if even if I think there's a good chance It could go down because at the end of the day, you know, I don't know what's going to happen We could be at 60k in two months or we could be at 20k in two months two months And either way there's going to be people there to say they told you so, right? So the way I look at it as I say I have bitcoin like I I I do think people should focus, you know on on really the blue chips Right, like this is not the time to be going to to really be betting. I think on on micro cat garbage, right? Like the blue chips. I think is where you should be focused But look, I just have the buy order set and I have them set all the way down So, you know if the bottom I already had an order filled at you know at 35k when we went down there a few weeks ago If we go down further than that I have buy order set if we don't then You know, I'm happy. I'm happy to just see things go back up again So do I really care? No because I I think we're in the stage the the long boring stage of just You know, you you come up with a strategy You stick to it and then you just wait and eventually we'll go back up again Whether it's from here whether we have to go down first and then go up. I don't know but It doesn't really bother me because we've seen these types of flood storms before and You know bitcoin is resilient, right? It will it does trend up with time So if history is an indication, I will keep assuming that it will generally increase with time and that it goes through periods of undervaluation and overvaluation Gotcha And then you know what I will say thanks to you guys because that's one of the questions you asked a couple weeks ago About those limit orders and I was like no, I don't have anything and I was like, you know, I probably should do that So I've got these crazy low orders just sitting around. So hopefully they get filled I think you can also get like scam wicks too on some exchanges where like it doesn't go there on any other exchange But then there's like a couple exchanges where it goes so much further down Um, so yeah, gotcha. James. I know you don't care. I I know you're like I don't care about this because it's you've been here for a long time. So Well, I just put this perspective, you know, look at some orders like I 460 days ago I was buying bitcoin at 10 000 as much as I possibly could and it's up It's not a 4x in that window of time 460 days ago is not that long ago everybody and this is just the thing and I'm even buying I bought yesterday at 40 000 and change so You know, it's just It is It's just the most and I don't want to sound like I'm slinging. Hope you're here. What is the most asymmetric bet we've seen in our lives? Yes, there's always that 1% chance it could go to zero But there's a 99 chance it's going to go way higher And I just last year I was flabbergasted with the adoption and the developments and the el Salvador news and everything else This year, I mean, I just I just finished a video and and I looked at eight price prediction models And the average of those eight these come from people like fidelity and arc and vests and mad caps law, etc The average of all of those models is 4.6 million dollars by 2030 Just the average the high end is 12 and a half million So just taking that, you know worst-case scenario my worst worst-case scenario. Let's not think about Could we go to 20 000 or could we go to 28 000? That's that's not the big picture The question is where is the destination and the destination my worst-case scenario right now For my model is about three quarters of a million dollars Which in less than eight years, that's a pretty good return. That's a kiger of 45 percent so Or else you're going to get 45 compound annual growth rate for the next eight years and that's my bare bare bare case So that's what people need to wrap their heads around not oh my god. I I bought bitcoin at 50 000 now It's at 40. It's like, yeah, just you know layer in dollar cost average as much as you can the name of this show That is it that is the head of the hardest point So right now if you're just sitting here sitting back like man, I don't know how these guys how this works This is how it works. It's just time time under pressure makes diamonds. That's how it works out So getting into what james was talking about. Yes, it's not the greatest day. Yes, we are down But just like uh, both these gentlemen said, I mean look bitcoin was down at what 32 000 how long ago? 24th of January And then of course, I mean s and p 500 takes a hit nasdaq takes a hit and that's exactly what's going on And I think it just becomes down to like there's just a lot of people out there that are afraid And one of these things they're afraid of is this So the Putin the ukraine thing There's a new story out putting overseas nuclear drills during standoff over ukraine. This is the this is just one of those things I just want to talk about real quick If we go if this happens or it doesn't happen The big thing is what does this all mean for In the future three four five years will we even remember some of these things? Will these things be like like the end all be all or will it be just a blip then what do you think? I mean, I think a lot of these things will just be blips and a lot of things are overblown Like sensationalized. Yeah Yeah, I mean as far as as far as what's going on in Geopolitical stuff like I'm not an expert at that stuff and I mean, I noticed people they you know, it's a lot of it's just a mind game Right of kind of showing force Are they going to do something? Are they not? I don't know. I mean, I you know, I don't really anyone knows But there is a good chance of being blown out of proportion Um, you know, I try to think to myself Well, like if it is if it is being blown out of proportion and and nothing really comes of it and markets Can get back to to normal Then we could easily look at this in five years and not even remember it, right? Like not even not even remember what exactly the fud was to take bitcoin back down to you know, the 33k region Which we went to a few weeks ago I mean, we've seen these types of things before right. I mean it was also in 2014 in Crimea Yeah, and I mean every few years North Korea pops up on the news for a while because of stuff they're doing and and it always It always has a habit of going away a few a few months later when we realize nothing's going to really come of it So, yeah, I look I mean people yeah, it's funny because like a lot of people on youtube, you know The the clickbait right like the clickbait thumbnails You know other media is the same way, right? You just want to talk about Sensationalist stuff as much as possible because that's what gets the most views and what gets the most views attract the more ad dollars That you know the the more money from advertisers. So it's all a game to just Get money. I think Um, but with that said, I mean with that said, I I do think it's worth at least taking seriously and and and realizing that Look if if something does happen Um over there and you also have the stock market trending down Like we could we could remember this as a you know As some type of deleveraging events as well and a risk-off environment for you know for more than a few months if if things really get bad, but Like I think it's anyone's guess and I'm not an expert on geopolitical things Uh, there are a lot of people on twitter though that are that that seems to be experts on it recently So I'll defer to them Through the they're yeah, they're the same people that that will uh, they're the armchair quarterbacks Like oh, I can't believe you didn't throw that way. I threw it this way. I would if I was there You were not in the super bowl. So whatever. All right, James. What do you think? Well? I think, uh, you know back Five or ten years ago people were forecasting cyber wars I think we've we've bypassed cyber wars altogether It's now we're in the realm of what we call disinformation wars And it started with uh, Putin messing with global elections like the u.s election everything else He is like ila musk. He loves to troll. He loves to mess with people I don't know if you want to call it a social Kardashian type thing that he's doing right now But I think that's where we're going. This is a war of disruption. This is a war of disinformation mini cyber war psychological war economic war He wants to disrupt. He wants to disrupt the u.s dollar. He wants to disrupt global economy He wants people to think hey, I'm the man and also what people don't actually really estimate is people think Putin may not be loved in this home country. They think he is the man. They think he is an absolute god So from that perspective, we're just in that weird place Um, and he's just playing a disinformation war the saber atling is kind of off the charts, you know in off on off and then the response from the president of uh, the ukraine Was really interested like he was joking. Oh, yeah, I know the exact day they're gonna invade In two hours later his admin says oh, he was just messing with the world, you know It's just very very bizarre time. So right now I've discounted everything and I'm in touch with two people on the ground in Kiev and the ukraine They say nothing's gonna happen But then I heard from somebody else closer to the board is saying they're packing up their stuff and leaving So I don't know what's up, but I'm now at this stage. I'm 65 7. Sure. It's going to be nothing burger But you know, there's there's there's always a play behind the play That's what I think and then like what you just said about you know people that are actually in the country There's a little bit different view than what the mainstream media really projects It's the same thing. Well, I talk about the digital you on there's people who are from china or they have family in china They're like, yeah The chinese government, of course is going to say how great it is But I can tell you right now that even though they push it no one really wants to use it We have uh, these these super apps whatever it's called we chat We use a lot of that and it goes Whatever they say it's it's it's their own agenda So just be aware that these mainstream media is a little bit fake and just what ben was talking about Hey sensationalism rules of day speaking of which Let's take just a real quick because we are not experts in this one But I I feel like there's an opportunity here This was cdm police freeze crypto wallets tied to the freedom convoy protests about to take back Ottawa in entirety I will let you read this a link in the description But I want to make a distinction here first is this is I want to make sure everybody knows that it's not about The protests and what it's about what i'm talking about here is just the freezing of the wallets And I want to just make sure that everybody there's the myth Versed the reality and uh, I as far as I understand it They're talking about freezing the exchanges and not the individual like a metamask wallet or your ledger or your tracer or something like that I think when people hear this They get concerned because like oh the government's going to freeze everything and take it all down I think there's an opportunity for education James. Am I right in this one? And what do you think? Yeah, so what what The headline was very wrong. What they are doing is tracking wallets there I think as far as I know from the freedom convoy. There's about 11 wallets. One is cardano one is That's about about six Six bitcoin ones is mostly bitcoin and 90 percent of the money is bitcoin But what they're doing is tracking the addresses So if the convoy tries to go to a fee at onram through an exchange That will kick up a red flag for the government. They haven't frozen the wallets per se Unless of course those wallets are in custody of another entry then that's theoretically feasible But no, it's a little bit overblown Again, if you have your wallet and your seed phrase, you're safe Keep it off the exchange and never before has to become more important You know, not your keys, not your coins things like this bring that all to the fore Gotcha So ben, I'm not gonna ask because geopolitical who cares right? I mean, I mean, it's it's a big thing But I will ask you this question for you for cold storage How much of your crypto do you have in cold storage versus on the exchanges? Because you got to have some to fill those those orders and stuff like that Um, it's a good question. I don't know exactly what the percentage is I do have a majority of it in cold storage I don't keep a ton on exchanges But I do have some like in other places like besides say like centralized exchanges I have some in like liquidity pools on decentralized exchanges as well So, I know, I mean, it's certainly a majority. I want to say it's probably around like 70% or something like that But I don't actually know the number and also a lot of it depends on the price of the cryptocurrencies at a given time depending on what the percentage is Yeah, I mean, you know, when we when we to hear about things going back to what, you know What you guys were just talking about with with canada I I always think back to the idea of like, you know, first They ignore it, right? Then they laugh at it. Then they fight it Then you win, you know, so like they are currently trying to fight it But I also think that them trying to fight it just makes the case for You know bitcoin and decentralized finance. It just makes it even stronger You know, like it I don't see I don't see cryptocurrency like losing its foot hold on any way I think that it we go through these boom and bust cycles Um, and I mean it's cliche it is it's like whatever it doesn't kill it's going to make it stronger And I do think it will come back stronger and stronger every time like we already have One country El Salvador that that's buying bitcoin. It's only a matter of time before we have more You already have Putin talking about like the advantages of mining for bitcoin next week We're gonna have we'll see what biden says about it. Maybe it'll be good news You know, maybe it'll be good news and then it'll take everyone by surprise Just go full bull mode Yeah, I I agree I think it'll be good news and that actually leads me to my next point because just like what you talked about You know, first they laugh at you first they they fight And you win gondi vote. I think there's I missed one in there But this just comes down to the next question I have and it's all about these central banks Many central banks like you see this one This is for the central bank of india Robbie Sanker deputy governor for a new central bank says it should we should ban crypto Pakistani central bank governor. We should ban crypto Uh, and then of course we had the big debacle with russia where the central bank of russia So we should ban crypto and the finance ministry goes no We're gonna regulate it and then Putin's like, you know what not only that But we got a really strong case for for mining it So to grab some bench because we're gonna do what I want to do So the question then is it seems like all these central these central banks are Pretty much united in what they're talking about So who wins central banks versus the government versus the people you think that this is going to be a long Drawn out thing or you think we're going to actually, you know Pull this out as far as the retail investors institutions. James. I'm going to start with you Those central central banks can't sleep at night. They are very very concerned about the disruption from stable coins and bitcoin and everything else Traditional banks Are fed by central banks and the traditional banks are bleeding assets and deposits If you go to the uk for example, half the banks there won't even give you a fee at arm around to a cryptocurrency exchange So this is is very real and they have to fight it with fud. It's all they got But the world the world is changing so fast These central banks and governments that just can't keep up So now they resort to fighting you like the imf and el Salvador a classic example So it's uh And the fud they use has just been blasted to pieces so many times like the bitfinex couple that did every trick in the boat to try Longer and try to cover up their steps and they were still found by the fbi and then the fbi yesterday announced they're launching a new division to do this type of stuff. So um, yeah The the the fud narrative the esg narrative. It's all just falling apart right now but the world is going to be facing a huge amount of change and Nothing is Is going to be able to hang together Over the coming years there's far too much global debt the central banks have far too much debt They can't stop money printing because they need to service the debt They can't increase interest rates because then they can't afford to service the debt. It's just We are facing a massive reset. So Yeah, it's just it's super interesting to watch and also a little bit terrifying for those that aren't prepared with hard assets No, I agree Then what do you got on this one because I mean the way that I see it I just see like the central it's like a futility an exercise in futility. You're just kind of like Pushing against the dam that's eventually will break. But I mean I could be wrong here Do you think this will actually Lead us to like a longer type of adoption just because these central banks are like we don't want this to happen and we'll control the narrative Uh, I don't think so. I mean I I think that we're on we're on the path to to global adoption It's happening. I think regardless. I mean that like the narratives change constantly with this stuff Like and I think a lot of times that it varies depending on on the general mood um, yeah, you know, I actually I mean, it's not a central bank, but I remember back in in, uh 2017 Do you remember when like Goldman Sachs said they were going to like open a crypto trading desk? And then the bear market started and then they like and then they were flooding bitcoin Like it's zero like literally like a few weeks after saying they were opening a trading desk for it or something um, so I think that I think that it's just a you know, I I think that we will prevail um, I mean, you know, I I do think that regulations and regulation fears can certainly cause You know, I mean it can certainly help rationalize downturns in the market or bear markets um But I mean the same stuff has been there every every cycle So I mean I think we'll we'll continue to get through it and if anything if anything Once we get through the regulation issues It should be it should be a good thing for the industry if if they can get it right They can get it right. I should say Yeah, that is a big if that is a big if but I mean I've always said like I think we need regulation and people will say no We don't what we do to get like just like what what what uh, james talking about the institutions are here But they want a little bit of guidance and we can we can put it forth But the problem is that I think there's going to be they're going to mess up They're going to over regulate But it does lead me to my next point with which what uh, james was talking about as far as like the central banks And the retail banks or the smaller banks. They are actually bleeding out and I think it's leading To things like this where binance joins the russian banking union And light up a new crypto department. So this uh, just came out. That's a long ago But the whole thing is for them to start to provide a dialogue with federal authorities legislators experts in the field and so on and so forth Binance's eastern european director glab costra nailed it I think this is what concerns me about america Not being as fast as it would Because our goal is to obtain a license and conduct legal businesses where the regulation allows I think that's the problem right now because america is not They're kind of dragging their feet So am I wrong in this one or are Is america is being passed by Ben since you're up. I'll let you all you're muted ben Sorry, what was that? I didn't catch the last word you said. Oh, yeah. So so for this for these different, um Regulations that are coming that are coming down. I mean binance is already saying look We're gonna work with the russian banks and it seems like there's these crypto projects that are like Well, we we're getting screwed over here. So we're gonna take off. Do you think that's a big hindrance? You think people will stick around in america All right, I think I didn't hear the last question. Yeah, I think they um I think people will leave. Uh, I mean like you can't you can't expect them to stick around forever Right, I mean you have to you have to allow people to innovate And I think there's already a lot of people who have left to to innovate elsewhere And if you don't I mean if you don't give people the right the right environment to innovate and the right Um, regulations to do so then what what choice do they have then to go to go somewhere else? I mean this is This is an up and coming asset class And I think a lot of people recognize that and and really, you know The times like right now are the times to be building anyways, right? You you build when the market is bearish so that you can you can really enjoy it when the market is bullish So I do think people will leave um and I mean, I think we've already seen that uh across I think a lot of people have already left and I mean like people can't just wait around forever for the united states to come Around but at the time they do come around. I think we will have lost um You know a decent amount of of talent that we could have had innovating in crypto in the united states Yeah, so if everybody in uh, uh, australia canada south america, congratulations. We're dragging our feet james Same thing. Yeah, it's uh, well the spotty tf is a classic case in point of How the u.s regulars are dragging their feet and people are voting with their feet as well So you see it on a micro scale of people leaving high state areas like new york and california moving to You know tax-free states like nevada and florida, etc Texas and you're seeing that now on a bigger scale, you know people going to tax-free Jurisdictions like el Salvador or portugal Puerto Rico etc So everybody's beginning to vote with their feet and I don't think the states Where the country has realized the damage and I remember I think was kathy wood said a couple of months ago So this is ridiculous. We're now being forced to buy an etf in canada We've got to deal with the fx risk and exposure on top of everything else. So Um, it's just a strange world. So yes, definitely dragging their feet. Uh, I think I've become more and more dismayed with Politicians all around the world actually the role as far as I'm concerned. I don't even know how they got into office But there needs to be another reset in that part of the world, too I don't know why these people even paid or why they're in office at all the decisions that are made that cover all gamuts Not just financial services In this day and age are just inexcusable and they're damaging everybody So, yeah, I don't think that would be a nice reset I mean some of like I think the average age for a us congressman I think is it's between 68 and 72 years old or something like that. I don't know They're 80s. Yeah, and they don't even know like when you see the the line of questioning around things like bitcoin and cryptocurrency They are so out of their depth. It's just embarrassing like a four-year-old would be able to propose better questions You know and this well, I'm gonna I'm gonna fast-track this next one Because I the question was is america getting it right on crypto. I think there's some there's some points But I got two questions for you then and I'm just gonna bypass some stuff First of all, Biden's Biden's proposal Not the proposal what he's what he's talking about is bringing forth like hey I want you guys to actually talk about this And get together the cftc the sec that Uh, the treasury the state justice and homeland security and I want you guys to put together some type of framework For us to regulate crypto and that's just the start They haven't there's like nothing really that is concrete He was like just put together committee everybody works together and we'll see what we can do Give it to me in like, you know four weeks or something like that and then I will say there is one thing that I do agree with And this is going to be a little Controversial I think But I do agree with the sec on one point and this was from it's a I linked this in the description It's from cypher trace and it was all about proving about illicit activity But that's not the point the point for this one is it's talking about how defy rugs Rug pulls are as the top exit scam as far as like the illicit activity I guess you'd call it in crypto they and they said these are the ones that uh, you know Big exit scams 2020 But there was one thing they said and it stuck with me and it said this the us sec As known as defy projects that have been subject to vulnerabilities hacks attacks fraud and manipulation at their summits the the sec czar Valerie Sepanic now it said when you are running defy things on code and you're putting out in the wild You're messing a step where you may want to test the code you want to audit the code Have the have the peer review send it out live right away without those protections is risky And I thought about I go, you know, that is one of those things That a lot of these a lot but some of these products actually do and I thought to myself You know, that's not a bad thing to actually make them audit it because right now you don't have to And and then it rolls out and people get rug fold. So I'm thinking so there's two questions. First of all Joe biden and this this Group this coalition he's trying to put together Is this actually the right step to do or is it just too slow and just a dollar too late? And the second thing is what the sec has talked about as far as like getting people as far as like these defy products to say Hey, you need to audit this first before it comes out. Is that a good idea? Is that just Off the off the whales And I'll start with James because he's up there on the top Ah, you're muted again. Sorry Only I mute you Uh, the regulation is definitely needed in the space But they can't be too constricting But if there is some regulation to prevent people from getting hurt people losing the money or the scams Like the 17 000 tokens that are there come on. It's pretty obvious that 80 percent of them are complete scams And maybe 95 percent of them. So that's a big issue and that needs to be cleaned up and fixed and then Also, if there is some regulatory framework inside that will protect Institutions as well that'll bring a lot more money to the space. So that'll all be good I just It's just the problem is the people making these decisions don't have a clue We saw that with the with the bill build back better that they try to insert They just don't understand the space. They do have some people that are ramping up fast I was very impressed with Ted Cruz. He was a quick study and a couple of other senators out there too And this is going to be this is going to drive the future for this country And I think there are states now that are just embracing bitcoin hand over fist as quick as they can like texas where you're from rob and The new breed of politicians will be the future and if you go against this new crypto world You are blackmarking yourself for life So your your your political career is over So I think people now politicians are getting very clever to this. It's kind of embrace it or die is the way I see it Yeah, then what do you got? Yeah, I've also seen a lot of politicians like pretend to embrace it, you know And like they'll they'll they'll even like reach out I think to influencers and and try to get you know, how can they how can they appeal to the crypto vote? So do be careful because just just because someone says bitcoin doesn't mean they understand it at all Um, this is true. Yeah But I I think I agree with with what James said, you know, one of the reasons I don't really talk about defi That much on my channel is just because I I don't want to accidentally promote something that it's going to get rug cold, you know And it's so easy Um, I think one of the one of the things when when using defi products is to go with the ones that have at least been battle tested for a while not the ones that are just popping up every single day with like Unsustainable rates that just don't really make a whole lot of sense Those are incredibly risky and I would I would stay away from those I would prefer to earn much lower lower interest and and have the security of of at least You know that the security of actually keeping my crypto and not paying rug one day Um, and I've even seen like I've even seen some, you know, some people who have large audiences They openly have rug pulled their audience and they don't care, you know Um, so like it's one of those things where it's like do I say? You know, it's like, okay, we want you want decentralization, right? Um How do you protect people against themselves? I don't know. I don't know exactly the the right solution there I I think for me the way I I navigate this stuff is I don't think that I need Anything, you know mandated by the government for for me to understand the risks involved I would like to think that would apply to everyone else as well but I mean I think the best thing you can do is just try to understand the risks and Um And and actually a lot of these projects do do get audited like they they sell or they they hire people to come audit them And and and a lot of this stuff. I mean a lot of the deep-fried projects I don't know if you guys have explored any of them But I have spent some time doing it and if you just If you just diff like if you if you diff the code from one from one to another A lot of times the code is like the exact same thing They just change the they just change the native token. It's the exact same stuff And it's just yeah, you you you go farm it for a couple months You dump the native token you move on to the next one There's a whole bunch of people to do this and you just you rinse and repeat rinse and repeat over and over again Um So I would say be careful and and also one of the things that the diff tool can do Which I know I'm getting on a tangent here is it it can help Highlight vulnerabilities like if you see some section of code that is very different from what you're used to seeing it That's often where where I would focus it on Yeah, no, I mean like it's the same thing with NFTs. We see the same I mean the same types of scams come over and over again I get 30 emails a day about hey promote this and promote that I can't I mean there's very rarely do I do anything because Just like what ben talked about. I think it's a scary world And then last thing and then we'll get to the the q&a. I just want to share this to everybody I know that we talked about you know the uh The central banks, but at least one of the central banks fed reserve came out and said hey We don't have any plans to ban bitcoin and crypto. I think that's actually good news This was a while ago. This is a september 30th, but just remember this like what ben talked about if biden's plan comes out and he says hey, we're really you know It's very positive on how they want to put things together Expect the market to do pretty well, and I don't care. Uh, how you dice and slice that I think it'll be pretty good for everybody But the question is what's it going to be as it comes out and that's all I got so let's get into uh The q&a man, we we did that pretty good 38 minutes not too shabby all right, so questions This is a good one He r says hey guys this point if you have money on the side at what price would each of you buy more bitcoin today james Yeah, I have a kind of a step ladder approach. I think the same thing that Then has so the lower it goes the more I buy sometimes by a factor of three each step down So I did buy yesterday about 40,500 a little taste I also Bought a few of the little things but just nibbling. I'm in a pretty big cash position So I'm waiting for that capitulation event. I just don't know what's going to occur But in the meantime, I'm nibbling as a good anchor sometimes the markets can reverse pretty quickly And I don't want to miss these cheap prices, but I'm not going on all in by no stretch so for example for me, it's 40k 38k 36 one Etc all the way down for bitcoin and a couple of other names too Huh, so tell me that again that was interesting. So like as it goes down by 10 by how much Say for example, you put $10,000 in at 40,000. I put $30,000 in at 38,000 Etc. 100 grand in it Just goes up exponentially But also look at other opportunities too as well and then get into a lot of option positions And they require a lot of margin too. So I'll just it depends how low certain things go like You know, for example, I have a line should 65 looks tasty Things like that. Yeah, I know it does it does a lot a lot of that's what's great about right now Everything looks pretty good But the question is we'll keep going down and even if it does go down who cares you just keep buying not who cares But as it goes down, that's a pretty good strategy You can 2x 3x at 15 20 percent of your position whatever else Then the same question for you. What's there? What's the price? I do the same thing. I just I refer to it as dynamic dca so that like You don't want to you don't want to just you don't want to wait the buys equally because you want to get your Cost basis down as low as possible. So you want to wait the ones the lower buys more So like I'm just looking at mine. So I have my most recent buy Based on like where I just set buys. I still sometimes like I still will occasionally just dca into the market no matter What the price is but the actual larger buys that I have set the last one that was filled was at like Just below 35 k at 34 679 And then the the ones below that I you know, I have another one at like 30 30 k or 32 k 29 27 and I mean it really I have them laddered all the way down And and each one is is you know, more or less marginally more than the one before it In terms of in terms of how much it's weighted So I'm kind of waiting for a little bit more clarity in this market And I don't I don't really want to and I think a lot of us are kind of falling to this camp at this point You know, like we're not trying to chase clout trying to predict exactly what's going to happen because we don't really we really know Um But uh, I think what I'm what I'm waiting for really is I want to see one of two things, right? I want to either see a A major capitulation by bitcoin with a lot of volume, right? Where where you actually see a like a deleveraging event similar to march of 2020 december 2018 or Um, or there there's there's plenty. There's been plenty. There was also may 2021 We had a we had a pretty big deleveraging event where we dropped like 55 and in a really short period of time So i'm either looking for that to occur Or for bitcoin to get back above These the shorter term moving averages like the 20 week estimate the 21 week yamai and hold it as support I don't really know what's going to come first But whatever does Is is where I would really start to get more aggressive on on on buying So like if if let's say if bitcoin capitulates then it's easy because then I just go ahead and buy And I just wait if it doesn't and we go back above these, you know I call it the bull market support fan, right? So if we get back above that and hold it as support Then I would actually start to get more aggressive without without waiting for for the lower prices because then I would probably just start thinking We're not going to go at those prices. So I have them later. I have them ladder down Um, more or less all the way to the 200 week estimate. Um, and we'll see which ones get filled and which ones don't That's solid. I like that. I actually had you know, just listen that I'm like, man I need to put some preliminaries in that's for damn sure. All right. So there's this one Super chat so this if the FBI can go after criminals and recover money that they have stolen a blockchain What would keep them from coming after anyone else and I'll just take this real quick If you're in china or something like that, uh, or in different countries that uh, would really, you know, hammer down they can do that without with Without unilateral support, but uh in countries that are supposed to be democratic That's not how it's supposed to go. Now people will just say rob. You're naive. They can do whatever they want to but uh So far we haven't seen that and uh, that's all I'll say about that anybody want to add anything to to that I always talked about Yeah, well one of the concerns it goes way beyond just the FBI and crypto but you know central bank digital currencies Will become true spy coins that will be ultimately confiscatable at any time anywhere Like if I talked about this a few days ago if canada Had a central bank digital currency They could turn off all those truckers in a flash Literally they wouldn't be able to feed themselves afford gas or anything else And that's the way the world is going and I think that's going to fuel a lot of demand for self sovereignty and cryptocurrencies As we go forward because nobody wants that type of exposure Yeah, but here's a question that I'll follow up So if you know that's going to happen and this is this is the same thing we talked about on the channel is that There's some people are super educated They're like i'm not going to keep everything on the exchange. I'm going to have it in the cold storage I really think at that one point when people that actually does start happening if it does I'm not saying it's going to that people will say oh, here's where the education part comes in This is what you really should be doing You should probably take that off into cold storage and things like that It's the same thing it's like people getting rug pulled There is no greater teacher than newt than being screwed over or making huge mistakes That's what happened me in 2017. I was like, man, I went at the very top I should have DCA really screwed that up But I got to tell you it was a great lesson and now here we are Well, Mark Cuban has been rug pulled a couple of times. He hasn't learned his lesson yet So I got to do that James. But I got to call that guy out. But hey, you know what? He did beat the the sec in the lawsuit in 2013 just saying just saying Ben, what do you got for this one? I was gonna say you're right I mean the the people that have been around the market the longest They always tend to be the more cautious ones and say yeah Like these lower prices could happen and the only reason we say it Is because we've seen that type of thing happen before right? It's not that we want to see it It's just that we've seen that type of price behavior In the past and so we want to make sure that people in crypto today also understand that while it doesn't have to happen It could happen And and and as you said it you said it the best like getting screwed over is is probably the best teacher of all Because I I got completely wrecked in 2013 like completely. I mean and it dropped 90 percent Like I mean bit coined up 90 percent back then and I thought it was dead and by the way in 2014 And 2015 there was this no market cycle theory stuff like I just I mean I I didn't really know what was going to happen I remember a theory and went to It was like seven dollars and it went to 14 and back to seven It was like all right. This is gonna go back to zero. So yeah being screwed over being screwed over is definitely I think the best way to learn in these markets Yeah, I don't know who I one of you guys said it and I forgot it was but you said that Sometimes you just that that first bull run isn't your bull run, but it's always the next one where you make all your money I don't know which one of you said one you said it, but this leads me to my next question Uh, it's just a comments, but it's a question spot etf ain't coming this year Hope we get a bitcoin spot etf this year. What's your predictions? I know Me and james totally do not agree on this one. So james, what do you think? Have you changed your opinion about bitcoin spot etf? Yeah, so I did I projected last year. I thought june 2022 would be the time for a bitcoin spot etf to happen and then it'll be followed by two or three others Per gary gensler, but the letter that he issued the other day to mr. Emmits or embers Yeah, give me a little bit of yeah, give me a little bit of concern So I think it might be iced for now, but the pressure The political pressure you gotta remember Half of the politicians get paid by wall street Wall street wants it Fast and they're finding other ways to unwrap it. So if it doesn't I can just look at microstrategy stock You know, it's 16% owned by black rock because they don't have a spot etf. So they buy microstrategy So people people figured out it would really if it did happen this summer Talk about rocket boosters for bitcoin price Because it would help it would just be an easy unwrap for so many Uh big institutions etc, but there are other ways, you know, there's You know etfs all over the world brazil, canada germany, switzerland australia They'll find other ways to get access But I think it is sad for the us to fall behind like that. And I think gary gensler will come around Yeah, I don't think it's sad for the us the us gets what it reads what it shows They don't want to do it. They don't want to do it ben. What do you think? Is there any chance? You've been around the longest so you would Yeah, I don't know man. I I feel like I've been hearing about spot etfs forever You know and I even back in 2017. We thought they were kind of just around the corner I mean you were I mean you were you were bar. I know I know you were Um, you know in the markets back then too. So I understand like the You know the caution because it's like, you know, oh, we've heard this before right same thing as like eith 2.0 Oh, it's 2022 and it's still not here, right? Like Yeah, I mean, I don't know I I think the earliest it could happen would be later on in 2022 But I was reading some of the some of the concerns they were putting forth and a lot You know some of it was about tether and that kind of stuff and you know, I don't know if that's going to be resolved by this summer. So um I mean it probably won't so so, I mean, I I I do lean towards Not thinking it's going to happen this summer. I mean, I probably the grayscale one would be the best Bet if it's going to happen Which by the way, that that's an interesting play because if it happens I I really do wonder how that how that premium is going to play out if it gets converted to spot etf Um, so I don't know. I mean, I I think it's probably better to air on the side of caution and assume It's not going to happen But whenever it does happen, especially if it comes after say like a like some type of a bear market that could be You know a catalyst to start a new bowl Yeah, I mean if you see a lot of volume going into gbtc Yeah, real a lot of volume real fast and means wall street knows and they're buying it up and the discount will go to zero Real it'll be arbitrage. It'll be arbitrage way immediately Exactly. So that that's what drives me insane, right? Like we all know it's there We all know we're on that that precipice of what's could potentially happen But the price is not reflected We get great news and great news and we get thought like some stupid stories out there Then it's kind of just tanks the whole thing. I'm like, what the We really should be but I mean Ben talked about a fair market value and 200 Week moving average was around 20k. So I'm like, well, yeah is what it is Which actually so we've been just talking about you 2.0. Here's another question Hey, James Robin 2.0 bags are ETH and mattock. Do you guys think it's a good position? James well, they complement each other very well because I see mattock as being a very very important lifesaver for ETH and the network and the two different layers. I always talk about so I think It's tricky to say I'm losing a lot of faith with the ethereum and it is my second biggest crypto bag myself Um, I was very concerned with the delays and eth2 being rebranded to something else And the complete dependency now on zk rollups and layer twos and all that stuff So we're digging into that. Um, I think I I just look at some of the other chains that are already eth 2.0 and they're operating They might be in better beta versions But what ethereum has is it's going deflationary huge amount is tied up And of course it is the incumbent. It's very hard to take That player off the horse, but the other chains are eating away fast So that's like I think the tvl the total amount of tvl in ethereum a year ago was 97.5 percent today It's about 66 percent. That's just within a year and that's staggering I'm telling you my my space in facebook My space in facebook ben. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, I think I think eth and mattocker are good projects I I would my personal conviction though is that bitcoin should be the largest Um, especially if you if you look at say like your risk adjusted returns and you calculate those out bitcoin. I think should be Higher in fact, you're if you're curious your sharp ratio is for just bitcoin and eth is maximized With a portfolio of approximately 65 bitcoin 35 percent eth meaning that like You don't necessarily get the best returns with that portfolio, but you get the best risk adjusted returns with that portfolio So I would argue bitcoin should be number one But you know, I'm pretty risk averse So I can understand why people might want to have bitcoin further down But as far as the actual projects I do think eth and mattocker are are good And also one of the things that you look at when you hold a knock coin besides say like ethereum Is you want to know like does it bleed against ethereum because if it does you're just taking on more risk for less reward Unfortunately mattock eth's valuation does not it does not show that it's been bleeding I mean, it's actually been fairly constant for the last year Which is is a lot better than a lot of other all coins So I I think from a technical perspective and from a fundamental perspective With roll ups and and layer two solutions. I think that that mattock makes sense. And I also Think obviously I think eth makes a lot of sense too I like I like eth eth the short term I'm Let's see what the developers do but that eth 2.0 I've been hearing about that for the longest time as well just like that Bitcoin ETF. I still have no faith in that whatsoever. All right, and then the last one and then we'll get out of here We're getting to that time What do you guys think about the odds of bitcoin going back up past 60k in the next? Let's just say the next year and this time So then you're up there in the upper left. Take this one real quick and I'll get to james That's a good question. Um above 60k I I mean, look, I think we're at a really critical point right now Like I I think it'd be a lot easier to answer this question in like a month You know to see like what what happens here with the stock market And do we put in a lower low or is it a higher low or a double bottom? For instance, like I it's hard to imagine if if the nasdaq goes into say some type of six to 12 months downtrend slash consolidation phase and I wouldn't be as optimistic But if we just bounce here, let's imagine a scenario where the the ukraine rush the stuff flows over a scenario where People realize that the fed is is raising rates But they're only going to be raising them by marginal amounts that should not really have an effect on inflation to be completely honest Right and what happens if we realize the fed's doing something about inflation and it's no longer having an effect Then maybe bitcoins the answer again, you know Um, so I would say like if probabilities, I don't know maybe 50 50 But I I think that in a month or two we can probably we can probably have a little bit clarity on that And by the way, if we do go back down to lower valuations Below 30k My speculation is that we would like we probably wouldn't spend a ton of time there Like I I don't think we would spend a ton of time there so we could bounce off of it relatively quickly That's what's happened in the past like if you think back to march 2020 we bounced pretty quickly Think back to december 2018 we went down to the 200 week But then we were back up we went up 4x in in in about five months after that happened So I I do think you know, I do think we will get back to those levels at some point over the next 12 to 18 months, but yeah in the next 12 months It's certainly a possibility But I think we need to first see how the stock market's going to behave over the next couple of weeks Stock market and the inflow of money, which would lead me to james james. What are you got for this one? So all it takes is one or two big treasuries One more sovereign the bitcoin etf approval Any other kind of good news a couple of big buyers a couple of people hedging Their portfolios some money from the bond portfolio some money from traditional physical gold into bitcoin any of these things happen 95 chance. We are going back to an old time high that's Just math and if you look at what the whales are doing the thousand plus holders of bitcoin They're stacking like mad And 40 to 60 thousand bitcoin are leaving the exchanges every single month and that's One of the wills or he just sent 9 000 bitcoin in his wallet today or yesterday or yesterday, I think um I don't know if you guys saw that by it was from like the 9 000 bitcoin Yeah, it was ridiculous and and I was looking I was looking at the the transactions and um The the first transaction though was that was like 6 000 bitcoin at 60k But we're in well games right now, I think Yeah, but you know, it's just like what what james talked about like i'm sure james I think we're all in the same boat here. We're probably just thinking Well, man, I kind of hope it does go down Yeah, because if it goes down then because we know where it's going to go and then if if james's models are correct 750 000 at the at the most Conservative level by 2030. I'm okay with that. I don't know if you're okay with that watching the video But i'm okay with us a measly 750k for one whole bitcoin. That's just me and that's worst-case scenario everybody That's like super bear. So, I mean just Again, take take into account the sheer scantiness of supply It doesn't take a lot to move this thing and The supply is fixed And that's why it is the most beautiful time in the world to be alive You know, just imagine a central bank somewhere on earth Buying bitcoin You know imagine any one of the fortune 100 companies buying bitcoin imagine a huge billboard pension fund somewhere around the world Buying bitcoin Imagine people converting 30 trillion of bonds just a piece of it 1 2 percent Into bitcoin. That's it game over Yeah price goes up and it's what's so programmed. It's it's the it's the surest thing I've ever seen in my life And you know james is like 32 years old. So you take it right? Yeah, remember, I mean remember when tesla came in and they're like, hey, we're gonna start buying bitcoin Look what the market did it just explode that was just one company. I mean granted a large company But just one just one one half billion dollars double the price One thing to to remind people too is that like, you know, if we had been doing this show back in march of 2020 um Yeah, we would have been you're stressing out about whether you buy it 5 000 at 6 000 at 4 000 at the end of the day Does it really matter a few years later? Right? Does it really matter if you got it at 6 k or 5 k or 4 k? It doesn't by the way 3,800 dollar bitcoin was basically Almost two years ago now. So we're fast-forward 24 months The price is 10 x and we're all freaking out again So, you know with that in mind when we talk about these lower prices and like, you know, could it happen? Could it not happen? I don't know. I don't I don't care if it happens or not The point is is it doesn't really matter in the long term, right? It doesn't really matter as long as you have the right perspective It should not it should not have you losing any sleep at night Exactly. I call that time series investing everybody and a snag a little bit You grab what you can and as long as you got a 3 5 8-year horizon you're going to do very well. It's programmed to go up again Unless something terrible cataclysmic happens, which is highly unlikely, but you know Asteroids are zombies are coming at the moment. Okay. There's say there's a 20% chance we go to 30 000 And there's an 80% chance we go to 100 000 the next year. So that's the math you know the downside is 10 grand the upside is A lot more 6x So I'll take it over netflix stock. Okay. So on that note, I think that was a great way just to leave it off A little bit a little bit of not crazy. Hope him but hope One one final question. What do you guys see is the weekend action? Up or down so we're 40 000 now come on come on Are we going to get back up to that second step of 42 000? So I I'll just tell you this like I hope and I know people want us to go up I don't I don't want it to go up. I don't want it to go up. I don't want to go up right now. Like I've got some I bought this damn house now a little bit dry and powder But I'm waiting for it to come back down a little more because I have a little bit So I'm hoping that it doesn't go up I don't see it going up because everybody's freaked out about this Ukraine situation Which I think is just booting flexing. I could be wrong but whatever. So that's why I'm in Hearing you say that now I need to go play some market buys. I think See that's it Money's coming in now. I'll say the same thing. I mean, I'll say well But I'll say the same thing I said a few weeks ago, right like going into the weekend Um, I'll I'll be optimistic because if you're optimistic and you're wrong people are more forgiving than if you're pessimistic and wrong Um, so I I will say that you know after after such a sharp Saw off. I mean look the one thing we have going for us is that the nasdaq only closed down 1% right? I don't see Riding here, right? Um, oh Maybe we'll maybe we'll get a bounce back up And Yeah, I don't know it'd be kind of funny if we just bounce back to 50k next week or something and then like Be awesome. Yeah, um, yeah, I I I'll lean I'll lean towards the towards the bull side just because I I prefer to be optimistic That's cool. James. What do you think it's gonna go down? I think it's gonna go up this weekend This is again, I've been talking about this for three weeks now It's too many dark clouds hanging out there, you know between the fed Interest rates Ukraine but I think everybody's getting jaded from the ukraine story now It's like, okay, nothing's gonna happen All we need those one satellite image of tanks withdrawing from the border and that's boom gangbusters next week Hold on before I forget. Has anybody heard anything about that that fed emergency meeting? I didn't follow it at all I just didn't care But yeah, they said they're probably gonna raise in march So the you know, some people were expecting they would raise immediately but they decided not to do that Well, but I think you know the market's only pricing in a quarter percent raise from 50 50 basis price Is it 50? But I thought the market I thought the markets were pricing it in at 25 now No at 50 basis points what I heard last which was that yesterday 50 basis points from march and then two incremental 25 basis points raises through june That's the plan Time frame so but even if they raise, you know Six percent it doesn't fix inflation But it cripples the gdp growth and the employment numbers and that's the problems that are on this tightrope They can't they can jack rates too much and it doesn't impact inflation anyway inflations They I'll I'll bet you a round of beers right now that they will not they'll raise the first one But when it comes to the second that timeline they'll push it back the punt That's my that's that's just I got yeah, they'll they'll jack to show they have some Whatever power and then the next mini crisis rates go back down again and money printing continues. They're stuck It's that simple Anyway guys. Yeah, it's been an hour. Thanks so much everybody Remember uh james and uh ben's channel link in the description all that good stuff. Thanks for watching like and subscribe Good weekend everybody. Bye